SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...Morning Update...
The forecast remains on track for dry/windy conditions and isolated
dry thunderstorms across portions of the Four Corners and Great
Basin this afternoon. Residual mid-level moisture -- as portrayed by
REV's 12z sounding and various afternoon forecast soundings for the
rest of the region -- will interact with an ejecting shortwave
trough and daytime instability to develop high based convection. Dry
sub-cloud layers and 0.6-0.8" PWATs will encourage less
precipitation efficiency initially, maintaining lightning ignition
potential where critically dry fuels exist. A transition to a mixed
wet/dry thunderstorm threat will occur in the evening as PWATs
increase, most likely in northwestern NM and eastern AZ. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
A combination of dry thunderstorms and dry/windy conditions will
pose fire weather concerns for portions of the Four Corners and
northern Great Basin for today. Early-morning water-vapor imagery
continues to show an upper ridge over the Four Corners region with
an embedded shortwave trough evident across the northern Great
Basin. This feature will promote not only thunderstorm chances
across much of the Great Basin, but should also result in dry/windy
conditions across parts of NV, UT, and AZ.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
The 00 UTC MFR RAOB sampled a PWAT value of 0.96 inches, which is
higher than previously anticipated by model guidance. Consequently,
MRMS QPE and surface stations have reported pockets of wetting
rainfall up to 0.25 inches associated with thunderstorms across
southern OR late Sunday evening/early Monday morning. Regional
soundings further east into the Four Corners region sampled a drier
air mass (especially within the boundary layer), but GOES PWAT
imagery suggests higher-quality moisture is advecting northward into
western NV ahead of the upper-level disturbance. This will likely
favor wet thunderstorms across northern CA into southern OR where
most guidance shows a consistent signal for wetting rainfall, which
warranted removal from the dry thunderstorm risk area. A mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms across the CA/OR/NV tri-state region should
transition to predominantly dry thunderstorms with southeastward
extent towards the Four Corners region on the fringe of the
mid-level moisture plume. In general, fuels remain very dry across
the broader region and should support lightning ignitions outside of
where heavier precipitation cores have occurred (mainly over
northern NV/southern OR) over the past 12-24 hours.
...Eastern Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
Modest surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin
through the afternoon will result in increasing southerly winds
across southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT and AZ. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong probabilities
for sustained winds near 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph.
Relative humidity values should fall to near 15% as temperatures
climb into the 90s, resulting in areas of elevated fire weather
conditions. While confidence in elevated conditions is greatest
across southeast NV into southwest UT, more aggressive solutions
suggests elevated conditions may extend into eastern UT.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...Morning Update...
The forecast remains on track for dry/windy conditions and isolated
dry thunderstorms across portions of the Four Corners and Great
Basin this afternoon. Residual mid-level moisture -- as portrayed by
REV's 12z sounding and various afternoon forecast soundings for the
rest of the region -- will interact with an ejecting shortwave
trough and daytime instability to develop high based convection. Dry
sub-cloud layers and 0.6-0.8" PWATs will encourage less
precipitation efficiency initially, maintaining lightning ignition
potential where critically dry fuels exist. A transition to a mixed
wet/dry thunderstorm threat will occur in the evening as PWATs
increase, most likely in northwestern NM and eastern AZ. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
A combination of dry thunderstorms and dry/windy conditions will
pose fire weather concerns for portions of the Four Corners and
northern Great Basin for today. Early-morning water-vapor imagery
continues to show an upper ridge over the Four Corners region with
an embedded shortwave trough evident across the northern Great
Basin. This feature will promote not only thunderstorm chances
across much of the Great Basin, but should also result in dry/windy
conditions across parts of NV, UT, and AZ.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
The 00 UTC MFR RAOB sampled a PWAT value of 0.96 inches, which is
higher than previously anticipated by model guidance. Consequently,
MRMS QPE and surface stations have reported pockets of wetting
rainfall up to 0.25 inches associated with thunderstorms across
southern OR late Sunday evening/early Monday morning. Regional
soundings further east into the Four Corners region sampled a drier
air mass (especially within the boundary layer), but GOES PWAT
imagery suggests higher-quality moisture is advecting northward into
western NV ahead of the upper-level disturbance. This will likely
favor wet thunderstorms across northern CA into southern OR where
most guidance shows a consistent signal for wetting rainfall, which
warranted removal from the dry thunderstorm risk area. A mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms across the CA/OR/NV tri-state region should
transition to predominantly dry thunderstorms with southeastward
extent towards the Four Corners region on the fringe of the
mid-level moisture plume. In general, fuels remain very dry across
the broader region and should support lightning ignitions outside of
where heavier precipitation cores have occurred (mainly over
northern NV/southern OR) over the past 12-24 hours.
...Eastern Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
Modest surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin
through the afternoon will result in increasing southerly winds
across southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT and AZ. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong probabilities
for sustained winds near 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph.
Relative humidity values should fall to near 15% as temperatures
climb into the 90s, resulting in areas of elevated fire weather
conditions. While confidence in elevated conditions is greatest
across southeast NV into southwest UT, more aggressive solutions
suggests elevated conditions may extend into eastern UT.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061700Z - 071200Z
...Morning Update...
The forecast remains on track for dry/windy conditions and isolated
dry thunderstorms across portions of the Four Corners and Great
Basin this afternoon. Residual mid-level moisture -- as portrayed by
REV's 12z sounding and various afternoon forecast soundings for the
rest of the region -- will interact with an ejecting shortwave
trough and daytime instability to develop high based convection. Dry
sub-cloud layers and 0.6-0.8" PWATs will encourage less
precipitation efficiency initially, maintaining lightning ignition
potential where critically dry fuels exist. A transition to a mixed
wet/dry thunderstorm threat will occur in the evening as PWATs
increase, most likely in northwestern NM and eastern AZ. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
A combination of dry thunderstorms and dry/windy conditions will
pose fire weather concerns for portions of the Four Corners and
northern Great Basin for today. Early-morning water-vapor imagery
continues to show an upper ridge over the Four Corners region with
an embedded shortwave trough evident across the northern Great
Basin. This feature will promote not only thunderstorm chances
across much of the Great Basin, but should also result in dry/windy
conditions across parts of NV, UT, and AZ.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
The 00 UTC MFR RAOB sampled a PWAT value of 0.96 inches, which is
higher than previously anticipated by model guidance. Consequently,
MRMS QPE and surface stations have reported pockets of wetting
rainfall up to 0.25 inches associated with thunderstorms across
southern OR late Sunday evening/early Monday morning. Regional
soundings further east into the Four Corners region sampled a drier
air mass (especially within the boundary layer), but GOES PWAT
imagery suggests higher-quality moisture is advecting northward into
western NV ahead of the upper-level disturbance. This will likely
favor wet thunderstorms across northern CA into southern OR where
most guidance shows a consistent signal for wetting rainfall, which
warranted removal from the dry thunderstorm risk area. A mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms across the CA/OR/NV tri-state region should
transition to predominantly dry thunderstorms with southeastward
extent towards the Four Corners region on the fringe of the
mid-level moisture plume. In general, fuels remain very dry across
the broader region and should support lightning ignitions outside of
where heavier precipitation cores have occurred (mainly over
northern NV/southern OR) over the past 12-24 hours.
...Eastern Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
Modest surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin
through the afternoon will result in increasing southerly winds
across southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT and AZ. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong probabilities
for sustained winds near 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph.
Relative humidity values should fall to near 15% as temperatures
climb into the 90s, resulting in areas of elevated fire weather
conditions. While confidence in elevated conditions is greatest
across southeast NV into southwest UT, more aggressive solutions
suggests elevated conditions may extend into eastern UT.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms
in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.
...MN/ND...
Morning water vapory imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over southern Manitoba, with its associated surface cold front
sagging southward across ND. This front will serve as the focus for
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from northern MN
into eastern ND. Strong heating ahead of the front and dewpoints
near 70F will yield MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
These storms may persist through the evening, spreading southward
into central MN and eastern SD.
...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of
the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas region today. Vertical shear and
steering flow is rather weak, suggesting storms will be poorly
organized. However, strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates,
combined with substantial CAPE in forecast soundings, suggest that
the strongest cells will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts over a
relatively broad area again today.
...AR/LA/OK/TX...
Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms again today over much of AR, southeast OK,
northeast TX, and northern LA. This is near a mid-level trough
where lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are more favorable for
robust up/downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Have opted for
a small SLGT risk for parts of this area where convective coverage
appears highest.
...Northern UT into WY...
Scattered high-based fast-moving thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon over northern UT, moving northeastward into western and
northern WY. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Weinman.. 07/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms
in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.
...MN/ND...
Morning water vapory imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over southern Manitoba, with its associated surface cold front
sagging southward across ND. This front will serve as the focus for
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from northern MN
into eastern ND. Strong heating ahead of the front and dewpoints
near 70F will yield MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
These storms may persist through the evening, spreading southward
into central MN and eastern SD.
...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of
the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas region today. Vertical shear and
steering flow is rather weak, suggesting storms will be poorly
organized. However, strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates,
combined with substantial CAPE in forecast soundings, suggest that
the strongest cells will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts over a
relatively broad area again today.
...AR/LA/OK/TX...
Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms again today over much of AR, southeast OK,
northeast TX, and northern LA. This is near a mid-level trough
where lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are more favorable for
robust up/downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Have opted for
a small SLGT risk for parts of this area where convective coverage
appears highest.
...Northern UT into WY...
Scattered high-based fast-moving thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon over northern UT, moving northeastward into western and
northern WY. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Weinman.. 07/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms
in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.
...MN/ND...
Morning water vapory imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over southern Manitoba, with its associated surface cold front
sagging southward across ND. This front will serve as the focus for
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from northern MN
into eastern ND. Strong heating ahead of the front and dewpoints
near 70F will yield MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
These storms may persist through the evening, spreading southward
into central MN and eastern SD.
...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of
the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas region today. Vertical shear and
steering flow is rather weak, suggesting storms will be poorly
organized. However, strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates,
combined with substantial CAPE in forecast soundings, suggest that
the strongest cells will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts over a
relatively broad area again today.
...AR/LA/OK/TX...
Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms again today over much of AR, southeast OK,
northeast TX, and northern LA. This is near a mid-level trough
where lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are more favorable for
robust up/downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Have opted for
a small SLGT risk for parts of this area where convective coverage
appears highest.
...Northern UT into WY...
Scattered high-based fast-moving thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon over northern UT, moving northeastward into western and
northern WY. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Weinman.. 07/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL AS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated
to scattered damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the
strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
...Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska...
Early-morning surface analysis reveals a low over far southwest
Manitoba, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low
into southeast MT and then westward across south-central MT. This
surface low and associated cold front precede a well-defined
shortwave trough currently moving through southern Saskatchewan.
This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward today, with the
attendant surface low and cold front progressing eastward as well. A
warm and moist airmass will precede this cold front, with afternoon
highs ranging from the upper 80s/low 90s across eastern SD/northwest
MN into the upper 90s/low 100s from central SD into central NE.
Boundary-layer mixing will be offset by modest low-level moisture
advection, likely keeping dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s over
much of the region. These warm and moist conditions will help
destabilize the airmass, despite relatively warm mid-level
temperatures at the base of a northeastward-advecting EML. Over 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be in place by the mid afternoon, with a
pocket of 3000 J/kg possible across southeast SD by the late
afternoon.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated first across western ND and
northwest MN as the cold front interacts with this buoyant airmass,
with ascent along the front augmented by modest lift along the
southern periphery of the shortwave trough. Enhanced mid-level flow
will exist within the base of this shortwave as well, with the
resulting combination of buoyancy and shear supportive of supercells
early in the convective cycle, with large hail as the primary
hazard. Some instances of hail in excess of two inches are possible.
A somewhat quick transition to a more linear mode appears likely
given the frontal forcing, close storm proximity, and likelihood of
strong cold pools. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard once this
upscale growth occurs.
Lower storm coverage is anticipated with southward extent from
central SD into northern NE. Here, weaker shear is expected to limit
the potential for organized storm modes, though isolated occurrences
of hail and severe wind gusts appear possible with the strongest
storms.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of
a lee trough this afternoon, with MLCAPE generally from 1500-2500
J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, with convergence along the
lee trough as the primary impetus for convective initiation.
Vertical shear will be weak, but scattered coverage and an
outflow-dominant storm mode will support the potential for upscale
growth into loosely organized clusters. Relatively high storm bases
and steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential
with a risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.
Highest coverage is expected from central VA into far north-central
NC.
...Northern Great Basin into southern Montana and northern
Wyoming...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into
southwestern ID. This shortwave is forecast to continue
northeastward across ID and western MT, moving within the
northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Four
Corners. Mid-level moisture and ascent associated with this
shortwave will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the region during the afternoon and evening. Moderate mid-level flow
(i.e. 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb) will accompany this wave as well,
resulting in sufficient deep-layer shear to support at least
episodic supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds
and isolated hail.
...Lower MS Valley...
A notable vorticity maximum is currently moving southward from
southwest MO into northwest AR, with slow southward/southeastward
progression of this vorticity maximum expected throughout the day.
Ample low-level moisture exists over the region, supporting diurnal
airmass destabilization and the development of strong buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg) by the afternoon. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as the vorticity max moves
through this environment. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting
storm organization, but a few strong downdrafts are still possible.
Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are possible as well.
..Mosier/Dean.. 07/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL AS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated
to scattered damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the
strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
...Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska...
Early-morning surface analysis reveals a low over far southwest
Manitoba, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low
into southeast MT and then westward across south-central MT. This
surface low and associated cold front precede a well-defined
shortwave trough currently moving through southern Saskatchewan.
This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward today, with the
attendant surface low and cold front progressing eastward as well. A
warm and moist airmass will precede this cold front, with afternoon
highs ranging from the upper 80s/low 90s across eastern SD/northwest
MN into the upper 90s/low 100s from central SD into central NE.
Boundary-layer mixing will be offset by modest low-level moisture
advection, likely keeping dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s over
much of the region. These warm and moist conditions will help
destabilize the airmass, despite relatively warm mid-level
temperatures at the base of a northeastward-advecting EML. Over 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be in place by the mid afternoon, with a
pocket of 3000 J/kg possible across southeast SD by the late
afternoon.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated first across western ND and
northwest MN as the cold front interacts with this buoyant airmass,
with ascent along the front augmented by modest lift along the
southern periphery of the shortwave trough. Enhanced mid-level flow
will exist within the base of this shortwave as well, with the
resulting combination of buoyancy and shear supportive of supercells
early in the convective cycle, with large hail as the primary
hazard. Some instances of hail in excess of two inches are possible.
A somewhat quick transition to a more linear mode appears likely
given the frontal forcing, close storm proximity, and likelihood of
strong cold pools. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard once this
upscale growth occurs.
Lower storm coverage is anticipated with southward extent from
central SD into northern NE. Here, weaker shear is expected to limit
the potential for organized storm modes, though isolated occurrences
of hail and severe wind gusts appear possible with the strongest
storms.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of
a lee trough this afternoon, with MLCAPE generally from 1500-2500
J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, with convergence along the
lee trough as the primary impetus for convective initiation.
Vertical shear will be weak, but scattered coverage and an
outflow-dominant storm mode will support the potential for upscale
growth into loosely organized clusters. Relatively high storm bases
and steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential
with a risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.
Highest coverage is expected from central VA into far north-central
NC.
...Northern Great Basin into southern Montana and northern
Wyoming...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into
southwestern ID. This shortwave is forecast to continue
northeastward across ID and western MT, moving within the
northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Four
Corners. Mid-level moisture and ascent associated with this
shortwave will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the region during the afternoon and evening. Moderate mid-level flow
(i.e. 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb) will accompany this wave as well,
resulting in sufficient deep-layer shear to support at least
episodic supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds
and isolated hail.
...Lower MS Valley...
A notable vorticity maximum is currently moving southward from
southwest MO into northwest AR, with slow southward/southeastward
progression of this vorticity maximum expected throughout the day.
Ample low-level moisture exists over the region, supporting diurnal
airmass destabilization and the development of strong buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg) by the afternoon. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as the vorticity max moves
through this environment. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting
storm organization, but a few strong downdrafts are still possible.
Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are possible as well.
..Mosier/Dean.. 07/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL AS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated
to scattered damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the
strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
...Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska...
Early-morning surface analysis reveals a low over far southwest
Manitoba, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low
into southeast MT and then westward across south-central MT. This
surface low and associated cold front precede a well-defined
shortwave trough currently moving through southern Saskatchewan.
This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward today, with the
attendant surface low and cold front progressing eastward as well. A
warm and moist airmass will precede this cold front, with afternoon
highs ranging from the upper 80s/low 90s across eastern SD/northwest
MN into the upper 90s/low 100s from central SD into central NE.
Boundary-layer mixing will be offset by modest low-level moisture
advection, likely keeping dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s over
much of the region. These warm and moist conditions will help
destabilize the airmass, despite relatively warm mid-level
temperatures at the base of a northeastward-advecting EML. Over 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be in place by the mid afternoon, with a
pocket of 3000 J/kg possible across southeast SD by the late
afternoon.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated first across western ND and
northwest MN as the cold front interacts with this buoyant airmass,
with ascent along the front augmented by modest lift along the
southern periphery of the shortwave trough. Enhanced mid-level flow
will exist within the base of this shortwave as well, with the
resulting combination of buoyancy and shear supportive of supercells
early in the convective cycle, with large hail as the primary
hazard. Some instances of hail in excess of two inches are possible.
A somewhat quick transition to a more linear mode appears likely
given the frontal forcing, close storm proximity, and likelihood of
strong cold pools. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard once this
upscale growth occurs.
Lower storm coverage is anticipated with southward extent from
central SD into northern NE. Here, weaker shear is expected to limit
the potential for organized storm modes, though isolated occurrences
of hail and severe wind gusts appear possible with the strongest
storms.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of
a lee trough this afternoon, with MLCAPE generally from 1500-2500
J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, with convergence along the
lee trough as the primary impetus for convective initiation.
Vertical shear will be weak, but scattered coverage and an
outflow-dominant storm mode will support the potential for upscale
growth into loosely organized clusters. Relatively high storm bases
and steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential
with a risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.
Highest coverage is expected from central VA into far north-central
NC.
...Northern Great Basin into southern Montana and northern
Wyoming...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into
southwestern ID. This shortwave is forecast to continue
northeastward across ID and western MT, moving within the
northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Four
Corners. Mid-level moisture and ascent associated with this
shortwave will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the region during the afternoon and evening. Moderate mid-level flow
(i.e. 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb) will accompany this wave as well,
resulting in sufficient deep-layer shear to support at least
episodic supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds
and isolated hail.
...Lower MS Valley...
A notable vorticity maximum is currently moving southward from
southwest MO into northwest AR, with slow southward/southeastward
progression of this vorticity maximum expected throughout the day.
Ample low-level moisture exists over the region, supporting diurnal
airmass destabilization and the development of strong buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg) by the afternoon. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as the vorticity max moves
through this environment. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting
storm organization, but a few strong downdrafts are still possible.
Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are possible as well.
..Mosier/Dean.. 07/06/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an
increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado
Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may
continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the
interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this
builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated
mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern
through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will
contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized
severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the
Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in
particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave
trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis,
which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic.
Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and
model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less
than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could
change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an
increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado
Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may
continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the
interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this
builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated
mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern
through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will
contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized
severe thunderstorm development.
It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the
Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in
particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave
trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis,
which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic.
Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and
model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less
than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could
change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe
hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into
central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
...Discussion...
It appears that notable remnant mid-level troughing will begin to
dig southeast of the Hudson Bay vicinity Wednesday through Wednesday
night, while an upstream short wave trough pivots northeast then
north of the Canadian Rockies toward the Northwest Territories.
Within the westerlies to the south of this regime, subtle mid-level
ridging may overspread the northern Rockies, with similar amplitude
downstream troughing digging across the northern Great Plains, Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region.
Beneath this regime, a weak cold front, perhaps reinforced by
convective outflow in some locations, is forecast to overspread much
of the remainder of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes and
middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late Wednesday night. This may
be preceded across parts of the central Great Plains by conglomerate
convective outflow emanating from considerable thunderstorm
development spreading off the Laramie Range/Front Range vicinity,
within steering flow trending northwesterly through the period.
...Great Plains/Upper Midwest...
Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a remnant plume of
elevated mixed-layer air may become increasingly confined to the
higher plains during this period. However, seasonably high moisture
content along/ahead of the southward advancing cold front may still
become supportive of mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg with
daytime heating.
It remains uncertain whether an evolving cluster of storms, and/or a
possible significant MCV emerging from it, will support continuing
or renewed organized thunderstorm development posing a risk for
severe wind gusts into and through the Upper Midwest during the day
Wednesday. However, it is possible that destabilization in its wake
could become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development
posing a risk for severe hail and wind, ahead of the southward
advancing cold front later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Otherwise, guidance suggests considerable thunderstorm activity,
initiating off the higher terrain of southeastern Wyoming through
central Colorado by late Wednesday, may gradually intensify and
consolidate within a more unstable environment near a broad/weak
surface cyclone developing across the high plains. Aided by a
nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, there appears at least
potential for this activity to organize with potential to swaths of
strong to severe surface gusts Wednesday evening, after initially
posing a risk for severe hail and localized downbursts.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER
MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe
hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into
central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
...Discussion...
It appears that notable remnant mid-level troughing will begin to
dig southeast of the Hudson Bay vicinity Wednesday through Wednesday
night, while an upstream short wave trough pivots northeast then
north of the Canadian Rockies toward the Northwest Territories.
Within the westerlies to the south of this regime, subtle mid-level
ridging may overspread the northern Rockies, with similar amplitude
downstream troughing digging across the northern Great Plains, Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region.
Beneath this regime, a weak cold front, perhaps reinforced by
convective outflow in some locations, is forecast to overspread much
of the remainder of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes and
middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late Wednesday night. This may
be preceded across parts of the central Great Plains by conglomerate
convective outflow emanating from considerable thunderstorm
development spreading off the Laramie Range/Front Range vicinity,
within steering flow trending northwesterly through the period.
...Great Plains/Upper Midwest...
Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a remnant plume of
elevated mixed-layer air may become increasingly confined to the
higher plains during this period. However, seasonably high moisture
content along/ahead of the southward advancing cold front may still
become supportive of mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg with
daytime heating.
It remains uncertain whether an evolving cluster of storms, and/or a
possible significant MCV emerging from it, will support continuing
or renewed organized thunderstorm development posing a risk for
severe wind gusts into and through the Upper Midwest during the day
Wednesday. However, it is possible that destabilization in its wake
could become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development
posing a risk for severe hail and wind, ahead of the southward
advancing cold front later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Otherwise, guidance suggests considerable thunderstorm activity,
initiating off the higher terrain of southeastern Wyoming through
central Colorado by late Wednesday, may gradually intensify and
consolidate within a more unstable environment near a broad/weak
surface cyclone developing across the high plains. Aided by a
nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, there appears at least
potential for this activity to organize with potential to swaths of
strong to severe surface gusts Wednesday evening, after initially
posing a risk for severe hail and localized downbursts.
..Kerr.. 07/06/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue to be driven by a combination of
dry thunderstorm potential as well as dry/windy conditions across
portions of the West on Tuesday. A slight eastward shift of the
upper ridge from the Four Corners into the central Rockies is
expected through Tuesday evening. This will establish a more
west/southwest flow regime across the West Coast that will be
favorable for downslope flow off the northern Sierra Nevada and
portions of the Cascades. Additionally, a plume of mid-level
moisture will continue to spread east/northeast from the western
Great Basin towards the Four Corners/central Rockies that will
promote dry thunderstorm potential across a broad area.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Mid-level moisture spreading eastward over the next 24 hours will
impinge on a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and dry
boundary-layer conditions currently in place across the Four Corners
and central Rockies. This should promote adequate buoyancy for weak
convection by Tuesday afternoon. PWAT values are currently forecast
to range from 0.75 inches from the northern Great Basin to around
0.5 inch across UT and western CO. Forcing for ascent driven by weak
perturbations within the mean southwesterly flow regime over the
northern Great Basin should decrease eastward into the Four Corners
were orographic ascent will yield more isolated thunderstorms. This
will likely result in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the
northern Great Basin with increasingly dry thunderstorms with
east/southeastward extent. Portions of central OR were removed from
the risk area owing to the potential for wetting rainfall over the
next 24 hours. However, portions of the area may be at risk for dry
lightning if rainfall amounts are more limited than currently
anticipated.
...Cascades into the northern Sierra Nevada...
The establishment of a southwest flow regime across the Cascades and
northern Sierra Nevada will promote strengthening downslope flow
along the eastern slopes. Latest forecast guidance suggests that the
driest and windiest conditions will emerge across northeast
CA/northwest NV where sustained winds between 15-20 mph will likely
coincide with 10-15% RH minimums. Further north, cooler conditions
will result in more sparse coverage of elevated conditions, but
favored gaps will likely see 15-20 mph winds with RH values falling
into the 15-25% range by late afternoon.
...Eastern Nevada into western Utah...
Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected for Tuesday as
weak troughing across the northern Great Basin drives an uptick in
southwesterly flow across the region. Confidence in 10-15% RH
minimums is fairly high given downslope trajectories off the
southern Sierra Nevada over the preceding 24 hours, and latest
HREF/REFS guidance suggests wind speeds will likely reach 15 mph for
many locations, resulting in a few hours of sustained elevated
conditions.
..Moore.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue to be driven by a combination of
dry thunderstorm potential as well as dry/windy conditions across
portions of the West on Tuesday. A slight eastward shift of the
upper ridge from the Four Corners into the central Rockies is
expected through Tuesday evening. This will establish a more
west/southwest flow regime across the West Coast that will be
favorable for downslope flow off the northern Sierra Nevada and
portions of the Cascades. Additionally, a plume of mid-level
moisture will continue to spread east/northeast from the western
Great Basin towards the Four Corners/central Rockies that will
promote dry thunderstorm potential across a broad area.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Mid-level moisture spreading eastward over the next 24 hours will
impinge on a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and dry
boundary-layer conditions currently in place across the Four Corners
and central Rockies. This should promote adequate buoyancy for weak
convection by Tuesday afternoon. PWAT values are currently forecast
to range from 0.75 inches from the northern Great Basin to around
0.5 inch across UT and western CO. Forcing for ascent driven by weak
perturbations within the mean southwesterly flow regime over the
northern Great Basin should decrease eastward into the Four Corners
were orographic ascent will yield more isolated thunderstorms. This
will likely result in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the
northern Great Basin with increasingly dry thunderstorms with
east/southeastward extent. Portions of central OR were removed from
the risk area owing to the potential for wetting rainfall over the
next 24 hours. However, portions of the area may be at risk for dry
lightning if rainfall amounts are more limited than currently
anticipated.
...Cascades into the northern Sierra Nevada...
The establishment of a southwest flow regime across the Cascades and
northern Sierra Nevada will promote strengthening downslope flow
along the eastern slopes. Latest forecast guidance suggests that the
driest and windiest conditions will emerge across northeast
CA/northwest NV where sustained winds between 15-20 mph will likely
coincide with 10-15% RH minimums. Further north, cooler conditions
will result in more sparse coverage of elevated conditions, but
favored gaps will likely see 15-20 mph winds with RH values falling
into the 15-25% range by late afternoon.
...Eastern Nevada into western Utah...
Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected for Tuesday as
weak troughing across the northern Great Basin drives an uptick in
southwesterly flow across the region. Confidence in 10-15% RH
minimums is fairly high given downslope trajectories off the
southern Sierra Nevada over the preceding 24 hours, and latest
HREF/REFS guidance suggests wind speeds will likely reach 15 mph for
many locations, resulting in a few hours of sustained elevated
conditions.
..Moore.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 1521 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Areas affected...Parts of eastern MT into western ND
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 060636Z - 060830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through the
early morning.
DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing early this morning across
parts of eastern MT, in association with a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough and attendant cold front. While this convection is likely
somewhat elevated, steep midlevel lapse rates atop relatively rich
low-level moisture are resulting in MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg (per
recent objective mesoanalyses), with sufficient effective bulk shear
for some storm organization. This thermodynamic environment will
favor some hail threat, especially with any longer-lived
semi-discrete cells. Low-level nocturnal stabilization may limit the
severe-wind threat to some extent, but isolated strong to severe
gusts may still accompany the strongest downdrafts. The isolated
severe threat may spread into parts of western ND with time early
this morning.
..Dean/Mosier.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 46520370 46210448 46540510 47760545 48440518 48970431
49270288 49040226 48410245 46520370
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
A combination of dry thunderstorms and dry/windy conditions will
pose fire weather concerns for portions of the Four Corners and
northern Great Basin for today. Early-morning water-vapor imagery
continues to show an upper ridge over the Four Corners region with
an embedded shortwave trough evident across the northern Great
Basin. This feature will promote not only thunderstorm chances
across much of the Great Basin, but should also result in dry/windy
conditions across parts of NV, UT, and AZ.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
The 00 UTC MFR RAOB sampled a PWAT value of 0.96 inches, which is
higher than previously anticipated by model guidance. Consequently,
MRMS QPE and surface stations have reported pockets of wetting
rainfall up to 0.25 inches associated with thunderstorms across
southern OR late Sunday evening/early Monday morning. Regional
soundings further east into the Four Corners region sampled a drier
air mass (especially within the boundary layer), but GOES PWAT
imagery suggests higher-quality moisture is advecting northward into
western NV ahead of the upper-level disturbance. This will likely
favor wet thunderstorms across northern CA into southern OR where
most guidance shows a consistent signal for wetting rainfall, which
warranted removal from the dry thunderstorm risk area. A mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms across the CA/OR/NV tri-state region should
transition to predominantly dry thunderstorms with southeastward
extent towards the Four Corners region on the fringe of the
mid-level moisture plume. In general, fuels remain very dry across
the broader region and should support lightning ignitions outside of
where heavier precipitation cores have occurred (mainly over
northern NV/southern OR) over the past 12-24 hours.
...Eastern Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
Modest surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin
through the afternoon will result in increasing southerly winds
across southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT and AZ. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong probabilities
for sustained winds near 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph.
Relative humidity values should fall to near 15% as temperatures
climb into the 90s, resulting in areas of elevated fire weather
conditions. While confidence in elevated conditions is greatest
across southeast NV into southwest UT, more aggressive solutions
suggests elevated conditions may extend into eastern UT.
..Moore.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis...
A combination of dry thunderstorms and dry/windy conditions will
pose fire weather concerns for portions of the Four Corners and
northern Great Basin for today. Early-morning water-vapor imagery
continues to show an upper ridge over the Four Corners region with
an embedded shortwave trough evident across the northern Great
Basin. This feature will promote not only thunderstorm chances
across much of the Great Basin, but should also result in dry/windy
conditions across parts of NV, UT, and AZ.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
The 00 UTC MFR RAOB sampled a PWAT value of 0.96 inches, which is
higher than previously anticipated by model guidance. Consequently,
MRMS QPE and surface stations have reported pockets of wetting
rainfall up to 0.25 inches associated with thunderstorms across
southern OR late Sunday evening/early Monday morning. Regional
soundings further east into the Four Corners region sampled a drier
air mass (especially within the boundary layer), but GOES PWAT
imagery suggests higher-quality moisture is advecting northward into
western NV ahead of the upper-level disturbance. This will likely
favor wet thunderstorms across northern CA into southern OR where
most guidance shows a consistent signal for wetting rainfall, which
warranted removal from the dry thunderstorm risk area. A mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms across the CA/OR/NV tri-state region should
transition to predominantly dry thunderstorms with southeastward
extent towards the Four Corners region on the fringe of the
mid-level moisture plume. In general, fuels remain very dry across
the broader region and should support lightning ignitions outside of
where heavier precipitation cores have occurred (mainly over
northern NV/southern OR) over the past 12-24 hours.
...Eastern Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
Modest surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin
through the afternoon will result in increasing southerly winds
across southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT and AZ. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong probabilities
for sustained winds near 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph.
Relative humidity values should fall to near 15% as temperatures
climb into the 90s, resulting in areas of elevated fire weather
conditions. While confidence in elevated conditions is greatest
across southeast NV into southwest UT, more aggressive solutions
suggests elevated conditions may extend into eastern UT.
..Moore.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
