SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON... ...Great Basin... Minor adjustments to the Critical highlights were made based on latest model guidance. Forecast remains largely on track with strong southwesterly pre-frontal winds of 15-25 mph affecting northwest portions of the Great Basin as a robust upper trough enters the Pacific Northwest. The breezy southwest winds combined with RH reductions as low as 15% and cured/drying lower elevation fuels will result in a critical fire weather threat for southeastern OR and northwestern NV on Monday. ...Southwest... A mid/upper trough and associated northward moisture transport shifts into the Southwest Monday, bringing isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over receptive fuels across much of the northeastern AZ into far southeastern AZ and adjacent NM. Thunderstorms will initially be high-based, with a dry boundary layer supporting evaporation of nascent rain cores. Latest forecast guidance suggests more robust boundary layer moistening and prolonged convective event across west-central NM and far east-central AZ where wetting rains are more likely, with local accumulations of 0.50" possible. Isolated Dry Thunderstorm Highlights have been removed based on these higher expected rainfall amounts. High-based thunderstorm development should still be primary convective mode along and south of the Mogollon Rim and fringes of the deeper subtropical moisture across the lower elevation areas of southeastern AZ/southwestern NM, where isolated Dry Thunderstorm Highlights remain. ..Williams.. 05/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will move onshore of the Pacific Northwest on D2/Monday as a second mid-level trough transitions northeastward across northern New England. Weak troughing will also persist across the lower Mississippi Valley/southern Plains and across the Southwest. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will remain in place across the Southeast and central/northern Plains. A surface low will track offshore of New England, with a trailing cold front progressing through the Mid-Atlantic before extending southwestward into the southern Plains. A cold front will also begin to advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest in tandem with a deepening surface low. ...Great Basin... A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH values of 10-15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this region. Thus, these conditions are expected to support a corridor of critical fire weather concerns from northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon Monday afternoon. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph overlapping reduced RH of 15-25% will also promote elevated fire weather conditions across adjacent areas of the Great Basin. ...Southwest... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying subtropical moisture plume will contribute to weak buoyancy atop well-mixed boundary layer profiles. This is expected to support widely scattered, high-based convection across much of northeastern Arizona and western New Mexico Monday afternoon. PWAT values ranging from 0.4-0.7" (locally up to 1") and more marginal LCLs ranging from 2-3+ km AGL will likely favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Given that fuels across the region remain quite dry (ERCs around the 90th percentile), isolated lightning ignitions remain possible. Thus, the 10% dry thunderstorm probability has been maintained for this update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON... ...Great Basin... Minor adjustments to the Critical highlights were made based on latest model guidance. Forecast remains largely on track with strong southwesterly pre-frontal winds of 15-25 mph affecting northwest portions of the Great Basin as a robust upper trough enters the Pacific Northwest. The breezy southwest winds combined with RH reductions as low as 15% and cured/drying lower elevation fuels will result in a critical fire weather threat for southeastern OR and northwestern NV on Monday. ...Southwest... A mid/upper trough and associated northward moisture transport shifts into the Southwest Monday, bringing isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over receptive fuels across much of the northeastern AZ into far southeastern AZ and adjacent NM. Thunderstorms will initially be high-based, with a dry boundary layer supporting evaporation of nascent rain cores. Latest forecast guidance suggests more robust boundary layer moistening and prolonged convective event across west-central NM and far east-central AZ where wetting rains are more likely, with local accumulations of 0.50" possible. Isolated Dry Thunderstorm Highlights have been removed based on these higher expected rainfall amounts. High-based thunderstorm development should still be primary convective mode along and south of the Mogollon Rim and fringes of the deeper subtropical moisture across the lower elevation areas of southeastern AZ/southwestern NM, where isolated Dry Thunderstorm Highlights remain. ..Williams.. 05/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will move onshore of the Pacific Northwest on D2/Monday as a second mid-level trough transitions northeastward across northern New England. Weak troughing will also persist across the lower Mississippi Valley/southern Plains and across the Southwest. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will remain in place across the Southeast and central/northern Plains. A surface low will track offshore of New England, with a trailing cold front progressing through the Mid-Atlantic before extending southwestward into the southern Plains. A cold front will also begin to advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest in tandem with a deepening surface low. ...Great Basin... A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH values of 10-15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this region. Thus, these conditions are expected to support a corridor of critical fire weather concerns from northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon Monday afternoon. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph overlapping reduced RH of 15-25% will also promote elevated fire weather conditions across adjacent areas of the Great Basin. ...Southwest... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying subtropical moisture plume will contribute to weak buoyancy atop well-mixed boundary layer profiles. This is expected to support widely scattered, high-based convection across much of northeastern Arizona and western New Mexico Monday afternoon. PWAT values ranging from 0.4-0.7" (locally up to 1") and more marginal LCLs ranging from 2-3+ km AGL will likely favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Given that fuels across the region remain quite dry (ERCs around the 90th percentile), isolated lightning ignitions remain possible. Thus, the 10% dry thunderstorm probability has been maintained for this update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
