SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.
Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with thunderstorms in
North Dakota and west/northwest Texas.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A
mesovortex embedded within a multicellular complex developed a few
hours ago and produced a localized swath of intense winds along the
OH/PA border. A repeat of such activity cannot be ruled out across
western into central PA given the presence of a broad baroclinic
boundary for ongoing storms to traverse. However, confidence in the
development of another mesovortex is too low for an appreciable
modification of severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 07/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/
...Mid Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of
eastern OH/WV into PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. The overall
thermodynamic environment has weakened considerably compared to
yesterday, with CAPE, low-level lapse rates, and heating showing
parameters only marginally favorable for damaging winds.
Nevertheless, parts of northern VA into eastern PA and NJ will see
strong heating all day with storms moving in during the early
evening. This will help to maximize low-level conditions favorable
for gusty/damaging winds later today. Therefore will maintain
ongoing SLGT risk area.
...Gulf coast states to Carolinas...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail over much of the southeast
today, with dewpoints in the 70s and pockets of moderate CAPE.
Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms will occur across this region
with locally damaging winds possible in the strongest storms.
...TX...
Full sunshine is noted over TX today, with dewpoints near 70F and
the potential for afternoon MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. All CAM
solutions indicate thunderstorm development this afternoon along the
remnant outflow from overnight convection, extending from the
southern TX Panhandle into north-central TX. Initial storms may be
supercellular with large hail and damaging winds possible. Storms
are expected to congeal through the evening and sag southward, with
a continued risk of damaging winds.
...Northern ND...
A cold front will move across northeast MT today, with a diffuse
surface dryline along the MT/ND border. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon.
Shear profiles will be sufficient for supercell structures capable
of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.
...MT...
Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the mountains of southwest MT and spread east-northeastward.
Inverted-v profiles and moderately strong winds aloft will pose a
risk of damaging wind gusts in a few of these storms.
Read more
MD 1511 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH/NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Areas affected...portions of north/northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 051846Z - 052045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage/intensity will gradually increase
over the next couple of hours. Isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts possible. Area is being monitored for possible severe
thunderstorm watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from overnight convection is
located from near the Red River northwestward into the southern TX
Panhandle early this afternoon. Scattered elevated thunderstorms
have developed across southern OK in a low-level warm advection
regime. This activity at times has shown gradual strengthening with
MRMS MESH approaching 1 inch and 7 km CAPPI showing increasing
reflectivity cores aloft. At least weak inhibition is noted in SPC
Mesoanalysis, and was present at 12z from FWD and 18z from AMA
RAOBs. Additional heating/moistening should erode MLCIN over the
next 1-2 hour.
A growing cumulus field along and south of the outflow boundary, and
MLCAPE now around 1000-2000 J/kg suggests storms will increase in
coverage/intensity soon after capping has diminished, most likely by
20-21z. Deep-layer flow is rather modest, but vertically veering
wind profiles will support sufficient effective shear for supercell
profiles. Initial thunderstorms may pose a risk of large hail and
strong outflow gusts. With time, convection may congeal into a
forward propagating cluster, with an accompany risk from damaging
winds toward evening. Portions of the MCD area may need a severe
thunderstorm watch within the next couple hours.
..Leitman/Hart.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33460301 33990314 34410312 34750311 34910264 34860216
34690129 34469984 34299839 34079755 33749707 33439692
33109697 32789720 32489754 32249808 32159913 32310058
32680166 33460301
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 1509 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OHIO...INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Areas affected...northeast Ohio...into western Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051724Z - 052030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage this afternoon, with
isolated severe wind gusts or even a brief/weak tornado.
DISCUSSION...An MCV/cluster of thunderstorms continues to move
eastward across northern OH and into northwest PA/western NY, which
is also along the instability gradient. Wind fields are generally
weak, but may be locally enhanced near this feature. The 12Z BUF
sounding shows a bit stronger deep-layer shear over 30 kt, which may
help sustain a few cells.
As heating occurs ahead of the MCV, a few of the cells may acquire
at least weak rotation and longevity, which will maximize damaging
wind, small/marginal hail, and brief/weak tornado potential. Given
the weakness in the shear overall, a watch is not currently
anticipated.
..Jewell/Hart.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41078245 41218200 41378135 41668068 42087983 42277912
42147850 41817822 41437838 40778007 40558114 40508211
40578243 40858259 41078245
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for scattered
damaging wind gusts and large hail on Tuesday across parts of the
middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.
...Northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge centered
over the Southwest, a low-amplitude midlevel impulse will advance
eastward across the northern Plains into the Midwest through the
period. Related forcing for ascent will support multiple rounds of
thunderstorms, generally focused along an ENE/WSW-oriented surface
boundary extending from the Upper Midwest into SD and NE.
While the details regarding convective evolution are unclear and
will be largely influenced by mesoscale factors, a corridor of
moderate-strong surface based buoyancy and elongated hodographs
(40-50 kt of effective shear) will support the potential for
eastward-spreading clusters and supercell structures capable of
damaging winds and large hail through the afternoon/evening. The
greatest potential for an upscale-growing cluster of storms capable
of producing scattered damaging gusts is expected across parts of SD
into southwestern MN -- potentially aided by an eastward-moving
surface wave and gradually strengthening nocturnal LLJ.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (2+ inch PW) may promote
wet microbursts and the potential for localized wind damage with the
stronger thunderstorms that evolve during the afternoon. However,
weak deep-layer flow/shear and nebulous forcing for ascent cast
uncertainty on the overall severe risk, and severe-wind
probabilities have been withheld at this time.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for scattered
damaging wind gusts and large hail on Tuesday across parts of the
middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.
...Northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge centered
over the Southwest, a low-amplitude midlevel impulse will advance
eastward across the northern Plains into the Midwest through the
period. Related forcing for ascent will support multiple rounds of
thunderstorms, generally focused along an ENE/WSW-oriented surface
boundary extending from the Upper Midwest into SD and NE.
While the details regarding convective evolution are unclear and
will be largely influenced by mesoscale factors, a corridor of
moderate-strong surface based buoyancy and elongated hodographs
(40-50 kt of effective shear) will support the potential for
eastward-spreading clusters and supercell structures capable of
damaging winds and large hail through the afternoon/evening. The
greatest potential for an upscale-growing cluster of storms capable
of producing scattered damaging gusts is expected across parts of SD
into southwestern MN -- potentially aided by an eastward-moving
surface wave and gradually strengthening nocturnal LLJ.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (2+ inch PW) may promote
wet microbursts and the potential for localized wind damage with the
stronger thunderstorms that evolve during the afternoon. However,
weak deep-layer flow/shear and nebulous forcing for ascent cast
uncertainty on the overall severe risk, and severe-wind
probabilities have been withheld at this time.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for scattered
damaging wind gusts and large hail on Tuesday across parts of the
middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.
...Northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge centered
over the Southwest, a low-amplitude midlevel impulse will advance
eastward across the northern Plains into the Midwest through the
period. Related forcing for ascent will support multiple rounds of
thunderstorms, generally focused along an ENE/WSW-oriented surface
boundary extending from the Upper Midwest into SD and NE.
While the details regarding convective evolution are unclear and
will be largely influenced by mesoscale factors, a corridor of
moderate-strong surface based buoyancy and elongated hodographs
(40-50 kt of effective shear) will support the potential for
eastward-spreading clusters and supercell structures capable of
damaging winds and large hail through the afternoon/evening. The
greatest potential for an upscale-growing cluster of storms capable
of producing scattered damaging gusts is expected across parts of SD
into southwestern MN -- potentially aided by an eastward-moving
surface wave and gradually strengthening nocturnal LLJ.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (2+ inch PW) may promote
wet microbursts and the potential for localized wind damage with the
stronger thunderstorms that evolve during the afternoon. However,
weak deep-layer flow/shear and nebulous forcing for ascent cast
uncertainty on the overall severe risk, and severe-wind
probabilities have been withheld at this time.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for scattered
damaging wind gusts and large hail on Tuesday across parts of the
middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.
...Northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge centered
over the Southwest, a low-amplitude midlevel impulse will advance
eastward across the northern Plains into the Midwest through the
period. Related forcing for ascent will support multiple rounds of
thunderstorms, generally focused along an ENE/WSW-oriented surface
boundary extending from the Upper Midwest into SD and NE.
While the details regarding convective evolution are unclear and
will be largely influenced by mesoscale factors, a corridor of
moderate-strong surface based buoyancy and elongated hodographs
(40-50 kt of effective shear) will support the potential for
eastward-spreading clusters and supercell structures capable of
damaging winds and large hail through the afternoon/evening. The
greatest potential for an upscale-growing cluster of storms capable
of producing scattered damaging gusts is expected across parts of SD
into southwestern MN -- potentially aided by an eastward-moving
surface wave and gradually strengthening nocturnal LLJ.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (2+ inch PW) may promote
wet microbursts and the potential for localized wind damage with the
stronger thunderstorms that evolve during the afternoon. However,
weak deep-layer flow/shear and nebulous forcing for ascent cast
uncertainty on the overall severe risk, and severe-wind
probabilities have been withheld at this time.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
Overall, the forecast remains on track with relatively minor changes
made to the IsoDryT and Elevated areas. A Scattered DryT area was
considered for portions of south-central to southeast Oregon and in
northeast Nevada/vicinity, but there remains enough uncertainty
regarding the overlap of sufficient scattered (40%+) coverage,
rainfall amounts, and receptive fuels to preclude a Scattered DryT
area. Gusty outflow winds are likely with the high-based drier
thunderstorms with forecast DCAPE values of 1000-1600 J/kg across
much of the IsoDryT area, while deep pyroconvection is likely on
active large wildfires.
The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest high-resolution
forecast guidance of dry and breezy conditions across the southern
Great Basin and northwest Arizona. Locally elevated winds/RH are
likely across southern Nevada, northern Arizona, and eastern Utah
into western Colorado surrounding the Elevated area.
..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of the Southwest,
Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest on Monday - largely driven by dry
thunderstorm concerns.
...Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners...
Short-range guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging over
the Four Corners into the early week. Continued north/northeastward
advection of mid-level moisture into a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates will result in a broad fetch from the Pacific Northwest
into the Four Corners with adequate buoyancy for weak convection,
PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches, and very dry boundary-layer
conditions. Confidence in thunderstorm occurrence remains highest
across northern CA/NV into adjacent portions of OR and ID where a
slow-moving shortwave trough will focus ascent. More isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with southeastward extent into the
Four Corners region and will likely be driven primarily by localized
orographic ascent. Across both regions, thermodynamic profiles will
largely favor dry lightning, but 10-15 knot storm motions may allow
for pockets of wetting rainfall. Regardless, receptive fuels will
support some concern for lightning ignitions - especially across the
Four Corners where conditions remain very dry.
...Southeast Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
The development of a weak surface low over the northern Great Basin
will likely support a swath of sustained winds near 15 mph from
southern NV into central UT and northern AZ. With a dry air mass
already in place and little to no low-level moisture recovery
expected, RH minimums will likely fall into the teens Monday
afternoon. Although variance among deterministic solutions remains
somewhat high regarding the coverage of 15 mph winds, recent
high-res ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of sustained elevated
conditions may emerge from southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT
and AZ.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
Overall, the forecast remains on track with relatively minor changes
made to the IsoDryT and Elevated areas. A Scattered DryT area was
considered for portions of south-central to southeast Oregon and in
northeast Nevada/vicinity, but there remains enough uncertainty
regarding the overlap of sufficient scattered (40%+) coverage,
rainfall amounts, and receptive fuels to preclude a Scattered DryT
area. Gusty outflow winds are likely with the high-based drier
thunderstorms with forecast DCAPE values of 1000-1600 J/kg across
much of the IsoDryT area, while deep pyroconvection is likely on
active large wildfires.
The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest high-resolution
forecast guidance of dry and breezy conditions across the southern
Great Basin and northwest Arizona. Locally elevated winds/RH are
likely across southern Nevada, northern Arizona, and eastern Utah
into western Colorado surrounding the Elevated area.
..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of the Southwest,
Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest on Monday - largely driven by dry
thunderstorm concerns.
...Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners...
Short-range guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging over
the Four Corners into the early week. Continued north/northeastward
advection of mid-level moisture into a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates will result in a broad fetch from the Pacific Northwest
into the Four Corners with adequate buoyancy for weak convection,
PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches, and very dry boundary-layer
conditions. Confidence in thunderstorm occurrence remains highest
across northern CA/NV into adjacent portions of OR and ID where a
slow-moving shortwave trough will focus ascent. More isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with southeastward extent into the
Four Corners region and will likely be driven primarily by localized
orographic ascent. Across both regions, thermodynamic profiles will
largely favor dry lightning, but 10-15 knot storm motions may allow
for pockets of wetting rainfall. Regardless, receptive fuels will
support some concern for lightning ignitions - especially across the
Four Corners where conditions remain very dry.
...Southeast Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
The development of a weak surface low over the northern Great Basin
will likely support a swath of sustained winds near 15 mph from
southern NV into central UT and northern AZ. With a dry air mass
already in place and little to no low-level moisture recovery
expected, RH minimums will likely fall into the teens Monday
afternoon. Although variance among deterministic solutions remains
somewhat high regarding the coverage of 15 mph winds, recent
high-res ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of sustained elevated
conditions may emerge from southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT
and AZ.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
Overall, the forecast remains on track with relatively minor changes
made to the IsoDryT and Elevated areas. A Scattered DryT area was
considered for portions of south-central to southeast Oregon and in
northeast Nevada/vicinity, but there remains enough uncertainty
regarding the overlap of sufficient scattered (40%+) coverage,
rainfall amounts, and receptive fuels to preclude a Scattered DryT
area. Gusty outflow winds are likely with the high-based drier
thunderstorms with forecast DCAPE values of 1000-1600 J/kg across
much of the IsoDryT area, while deep pyroconvection is likely on
active large wildfires.
The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest high-resolution
forecast guidance of dry and breezy conditions across the southern
Great Basin and northwest Arizona. Locally elevated winds/RH are
likely across southern Nevada, northern Arizona, and eastern Utah
into western Colorado surrounding the Elevated area.
..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of the Southwest,
Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest on Monday - largely driven by dry
thunderstorm concerns.
...Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners...
Short-range guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging over
the Four Corners into the early week. Continued north/northeastward
advection of mid-level moisture into a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates will result in a broad fetch from the Pacific Northwest
into the Four Corners with adequate buoyancy for weak convection,
PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches, and very dry boundary-layer
conditions. Confidence in thunderstorm occurrence remains highest
across northern CA/NV into adjacent portions of OR and ID where a
slow-moving shortwave trough will focus ascent. More isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with southeastward extent into the
Four Corners region and will likely be driven primarily by localized
orographic ascent. Across both regions, thermodynamic profiles will
largely favor dry lightning, but 10-15 knot storm motions may allow
for pockets of wetting rainfall. Regardless, receptive fuels will
support some concern for lightning ignitions - especially across the
Four Corners where conditions remain very dry.
...Southeast Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
The development of a weak surface low over the northern Great Basin
will likely support a swath of sustained winds near 15 mph from
southern NV into central UT and northern AZ. With a dry air mass
already in place and little to no low-level moisture recovery
expected, RH minimums will likely fall into the teens Monday
afternoon. Although variance among deterministic solutions remains
somewhat high regarding the coverage of 15 mph winds, recent
high-res ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of sustained elevated
conditions may emerge from southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT
and AZ.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
Overall, the forecast remains on track with relatively minor changes
made to the IsoDryT and Elevated areas. A Scattered DryT area was
considered for portions of south-central to southeast Oregon and in
northeast Nevada/vicinity, but there remains enough uncertainty
regarding the overlap of sufficient scattered (40%+) coverage,
rainfall amounts, and receptive fuels to preclude a Scattered DryT
area. Gusty outflow winds are likely with the high-based drier
thunderstorms with forecast DCAPE values of 1000-1600 J/kg across
much of the IsoDryT area, while deep pyroconvection is likely on
active large wildfires.
The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest high-resolution
forecast guidance of dry and breezy conditions across the southern
Great Basin and northwest Arizona. Locally elevated winds/RH are
likely across southern Nevada, northern Arizona, and eastern Utah
into western Colorado surrounding the Elevated area.
..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of the Southwest,
Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest on Monday - largely driven by dry
thunderstorm concerns.
...Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners...
Short-range guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging over
the Four Corners into the early week. Continued north/northeastward
advection of mid-level moisture into a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates will result in a broad fetch from the Pacific Northwest
into the Four Corners with adequate buoyancy for weak convection,
PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches, and very dry boundary-layer
conditions. Confidence in thunderstorm occurrence remains highest
across northern CA/NV into adjacent portions of OR and ID where a
slow-moving shortwave trough will focus ascent. More isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with southeastward extent into the
Four Corners region and will likely be driven primarily by localized
orographic ascent. Across both regions, thermodynamic profiles will
largely favor dry lightning, but 10-15 knot storm motions may allow
for pockets of wetting rainfall. Regardless, receptive fuels will
support some concern for lightning ignitions - especially across the
Four Corners where conditions remain very dry.
...Southeast Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
The development of a weak surface low over the northern Great Basin
will likely support a swath of sustained winds near 15 mph from
southern NV into central UT and northern AZ. With a dry air mass
already in place and little to no low-level moisture recovery
expected, RH minimums will likely fall into the teens Monday
afternoon. Although variance among deterministic solutions remains
somewhat high regarding the coverage of 15 mph winds, recent
high-res ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of sustained elevated
conditions may emerge from southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT
and AZ.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
Overall, the forecast remains on track with relatively minor changes
made to the IsoDryT and Elevated areas. A Scattered DryT area was
considered for portions of south-central to southeast Oregon and in
northeast Nevada/vicinity, but there remains enough uncertainty
regarding the overlap of sufficient scattered (40%+) coverage,
rainfall amounts, and receptive fuels to preclude a Scattered DryT
area. Gusty outflow winds are likely with the high-based drier
thunderstorms with forecast DCAPE values of 1000-1600 J/kg across
much of the IsoDryT area, while deep pyroconvection is likely on
active large wildfires.
The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest high-resolution
forecast guidance of dry and breezy conditions across the southern
Great Basin and northwest Arizona. Locally elevated winds/RH are
likely across southern Nevada, northern Arizona, and eastern Utah
into western Colorado surrounding the Elevated area.
..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of the Southwest,
Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest on Monday - largely driven by dry
thunderstorm concerns.
...Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners...
Short-range guidance continues to show persistent upper ridging over
the Four Corners into the early week. Continued north/northeastward
advection of mid-level moisture into a plume of steep mid-level
lapse rates will result in a broad fetch from the Pacific Northwest
into the Four Corners with adequate buoyancy for weak convection,
PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches, and very dry boundary-layer
conditions. Confidence in thunderstorm occurrence remains highest
across northern CA/NV into adjacent portions of OR and ID where a
slow-moving shortwave trough will focus ascent. More isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with southeastward extent into the
Four Corners region and will likely be driven primarily by localized
orographic ascent. Across both regions, thermodynamic profiles will
largely favor dry lightning, but 10-15 knot storm motions may allow
for pockets of wetting rainfall. Regardless, receptive fuels will
support some concern for lightning ignitions - especially across the
Four Corners where conditions remain very dry.
...Southeast Nevada into Utah and Arizona...
The development of a weak surface low over the northern Great Basin
will likely support a swath of sustained winds near 15 mph from
southern NV into central UT and northern AZ. With a dry air mass
already in place and little to no low-level moisture recovery
expected, RH minimums will likely fall into the teens Monday
afternoon. Although variance among deterministic solutions remains
somewhat high regarding the coverage of 15 mph winds, recent
high-res ensemble guidance suggests a corridor of sustained elevated
conditions may emerge from southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT
and AZ.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Midwest.
Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across the
Mid-Atlantic and lower Mississippi Valley.
...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
Within the base of a midlevel trough moving eastward across SK/MB,
modest midlevel height falls and a belt of 40-kt midlevel flow will
overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest. This will promote
scattered thunderstorms along a southeastward-moving cold front
during the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Rich boundary-layer
moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will yield strong
buoyancy along/ahead of the front. This, combined with around 40 kt
of effective shear, will promote a few organized clusters and
possibly supercell structures capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts.
...Mid-Atlantic...
In the vicinity of a surface trough in the lee of the Blue Ridge,
bands and clusters of storms will overspread a moist and strongly
unstable air mass during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer
shear and related storm organization, the environment will be
conducive for damaging wind gusts with the stronger cores.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An embedded midlevel impulse in the base of a broad, positive-tilt
large-scale trough will provide a focus for scattered afternoon
thunderstorm development across the lower MS Valley. Generally weak
deep-layer shear will limit overall thunderstorm
organization/longevity, though strong surface-based buoyancy and the
potential for small bands/clusters of storms will favor damaging
wind gusts.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Midwest.
Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across the
Mid-Atlantic and lower Mississippi Valley.
...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
Within the base of a midlevel trough moving eastward across SK/MB,
modest midlevel height falls and a belt of 40-kt midlevel flow will
overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest. This will promote
scattered thunderstorms along a southeastward-moving cold front
during the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Rich boundary-layer
moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will yield strong
buoyancy along/ahead of the front. This, combined with around 40 kt
of effective shear, will promote a few organized clusters and
possibly supercell structures capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts.
...Mid-Atlantic...
In the vicinity of a surface trough in the lee of the Blue Ridge,
bands and clusters of storms will overspread a moist and strongly
unstable air mass during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer
shear and related storm organization, the environment will be
conducive for damaging wind gusts with the stronger cores.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An embedded midlevel impulse in the base of a broad, positive-tilt
large-scale trough will provide a focus for scattered afternoon
thunderstorm development across the lower MS Valley. Generally weak
deep-layer shear will limit overall thunderstorm
organization/longevity, though strong surface-based buoyancy and the
potential for small bands/clusters of storms will favor damaging
wind gusts.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Midwest.
Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across the
Mid-Atlantic and lower Mississippi Valley.
...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
Within the base of a midlevel trough moving eastward across SK/MB,
modest midlevel height falls and a belt of 40-kt midlevel flow will
overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest. This will promote
scattered thunderstorms along a southeastward-moving cold front
during the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Rich boundary-layer
moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will yield strong
buoyancy along/ahead of the front. This, combined with around 40 kt
of effective shear, will promote a few organized clusters and
possibly supercell structures capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts.
...Mid-Atlantic...
In the vicinity of a surface trough in the lee of the Blue Ridge,
bands and clusters of storms will overspread a moist and strongly
unstable air mass during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer
shear and related storm organization, the environment will be
conducive for damaging wind gusts with the stronger cores.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An embedded midlevel impulse in the base of a broad, positive-tilt
large-scale trough will provide a focus for scattered afternoon
thunderstorm development across the lower MS Valley. Generally weak
deep-layer shear will limit overall thunderstorm
organization/longevity, though strong surface-based buoyancy and the
potential for small bands/clusters of storms will favor damaging
wind gusts.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Midwest.
Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across the
Mid-Atlantic and lower Mississippi Valley.
...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
Within the base of a midlevel trough moving eastward across SK/MB,
modest midlevel height falls and a belt of 40-kt midlevel flow will
overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest. This will promote
scattered thunderstorms along a southeastward-moving cold front
during the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Rich boundary-layer
moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will yield strong
buoyancy along/ahead of the front. This, combined with around 40 kt
of effective shear, will promote a few organized clusters and
possibly supercell structures capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts.
...Mid-Atlantic...
In the vicinity of a surface trough in the lee of the Blue Ridge,
bands and clusters of storms will overspread a moist and strongly
unstable air mass during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer
shear and related storm organization, the environment will be
conducive for damaging wind gusts with the stronger cores.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An embedded midlevel impulse in the base of a broad, positive-tilt
large-scale trough will provide a focus for scattered afternoon
thunderstorm development across the lower MS Valley. Generally weak
deep-layer shear will limit overall thunderstorm
organization/longevity, though strong surface-based buoyancy and the
potential for small bands/clusters of storms will favor damaging
wind gusts.
..Weinman.. 07/05/2026
Read more
