SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will dig into the western U.S. through much of
next week while a blocking ridge anchors over central CONUS. This
trough and associated increasing southwest flow will bring a fire
weather threat to portions of the Great Basin and Southwest through
at least Day 6/Thursday. A lower amplitude mid-level trough and
associated sub-tropical moisture entering the Southwest should
bring a dry thunderstorm threat to much of northeastern AZ and
western NM on Day 3/Monday, where fuels are more receptive to
ignitions.
...Day 3/Monday...
...Great Basin...
A deepening upper trough and robust mid-level jet enters the Pacific
Northwest Day 3/Monday, resulting in pronounced lee trough evolution
east of the Cascades. Stronger southwest winds of 15-25 mph are
expected across the northwestern Great Basin amid above normal
temperatures and low relative humidity. Recent fire activity
suggests fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. A 70%
critical probability area was introduced where corridor of enhanced
southwest winds and drier fuels are most likely to align.
...Southwest...
A mid-level shortwave with an accompanying subtropical moisture
plume will support high-based showers and thunderstorms for much of
northeastern AZ and western NM. Recent forecast guidance has trended
upward in precipitation amounts but fuels remain quite dry, with ERC
values hovering around the 90th percentile through this weekend.
Maintained 10% dry thunderstorm probability given receptive fuels
and ongoing fires on the landscape.
...Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday - Great Basin and Southwest...
As the upper trough becomes established across the western U.S.,
deep-layer southwesterly flow will sustain a fire weather threat for
portions of the Great Basin, Southwest and Four Corners regions
through midweek. However, the current 40% critical probability areas
may need to be adjusted in subsequent forecast updates if a more
expansive rainfall event unfolds Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday.
..Williams.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will dig into the western U.S. through much of
next week while a blocking ridge anchors over central CONUS. This
trough and associated increasing southwest flow will bring a fire
weather threat to portions of the Great Basin and Southwest through
at least Day 6/Thursday. A lower amplitude mid-level trough and
associated sub-tropical moisture entering the Southwest should
bring a dry thunderstorm threat to much of northeastern AZ and
western NM on Day 3/Monday, where fuels are more receptive to
ignitions.
...Day 3/Monday...
...Great Basin...
A deepening upper trough and robust mid-level jet enters the Pacific
Northwest Day 3/Monday, resulting in pronounced lee trough evolution
east of the Cascades. Stronger southwest winds of 15-25 mph are
expected across the northwestern Great Basin amid above normal
temperatures and low relative humidity. Recent fire activity
suggests fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. A 70%
critical probability area was introduced where corridor of enhanced
southwest winds and drier fuels are most likely to align.
...Southwest...
A mid-level shortwave with an accompanying subtropical moisture
plume will support high-based showers and thunderstorms for much of
northeastern AZ and western NM. Recent forecast guidance has trended
upward in precipitation amounts but fuels remain quite dry, with ERC
values hovering around the 90th percentile through this weekend.
Maintained 10% dry thunderstorm probability given receptive fuels
and ongoing fires on the landscape.
...Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday - Great Basin and Southwest...
As the upper trough becomes established across the western U.S.,
deep-layer southwesterly flow will sustain a fire weather threat for
portions of the Great Basin, Southwest and Four Corners regions
through midweek. However, the current 40% critical probability areas
may need to be adjusted in subsequent forecast updates if a more
expansive rainfall event unfolds Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday.
..Williams.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MEI
TO 70 S GWO TO 45 SSW GLH TO 25 E ELD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
..WENDT..05/23/26
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 241
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-232140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
MSC007-051-053-079-089-125-151-163-232140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA HOLMES HUMPHREYS
LEAKE MADISON SHARKEY
WASHINGTON YAZOO
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MEI
TO 70 S GWO TO 45 SSW GLH TO 25 E ELD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
..WENDT..05/23/26
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 241
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-232140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
MSC007-051-053-079-089-125-151-163-232140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA HOLMES HUMPHREYS
LEAKE MADISON SHARKEY
WASHINGTON YAZOO
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...North-Central Montana...
A deepening lee surface trough across the southern Canadian Prairies
under modest westerly flow aloft will support dry and breezy
conditions across northern MT Sunday. West winds of 15-20 mph and RH
as low as 15% is expected Sunday afternoon. The primary impact will
be to areas where green up has been delayed by drought, limiting a
wider fire weather concern.
...Northern Great Basin and Southern Idaho...
A plume of mid to upper-level sub-tropical moisture will arch from
the Sierra Nevada to southern ID, eastward into southern WY and the
CO Rockies on Sunday. Increasing daytime instability within this
corridor of moisture will support isolated high-based thunderstorm
development Sunday afternoon, although fuels (including ongoing
green up) continue to be a limiting factor in potential dry lighting
ignitions for Sunday. Thus, no dry thunderstorm highlights were
introduced for this update.
..Williams.. 05/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will shift eastward across the northern Great
Lakes region on D2/Sunday, with subtle/weak troughing also in place
across the Southern Plains. Upper-level ridging will linger over the
Southeast and Four Corners regions. A potent upper-level trough will
then approach the Pacific Northwest by the end of the period, with
weak troughing also moving onshore across southern
California/northwestern Mexico. At the surface, a quasi-stationary
surface boundary will extend from the southern Plains into the Ohio
Valley and Mid-Atlantic, with chances for wetting rainfall and
thunderstorms across much of the South and eastern CONUS.
Similar to D1/Saturday, warming temperatures under subtle ridging
will promote RH reductions to 10-20% across much of the West and
into the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. The lack of a
stronger surface pressure gradient will largely limit sustained
surface wind speeds and thus limit broad fire weather concerns.
Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in favored
terrain/gap areas, however. Locally elevated conditions may also be
possible across portions of northern Montana, especially where any
pockets of drier fine fuels may exist, where a tightened surface
pressure gradient on the southern periphery of a surface low may
support a brief overlap of sustained westerly surface winds of 10-15
mph and RH values of 20-25%.
Lingering mid-level moisture and well-mixed boundary layer profiles
ahead of a subtle mid-level perturbation may support isolated
high-based convection across higher-terrain areas of the northern
Great Basin Sunday afternoon. Limited lightning potential and
sub-critical fuels are again expected to temper the overall
lightning ignition threat at this time, however.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...North-Central Montana...
A deepening lee surface trough across the southern Canadian Prairies
under modest westerly flow aloft will support dry and breezy
conditions across northern MT Sunday. West winds of 15-20 mph and RH
as low as 15% is expected Sunday afternoon. The primary impact will
be to areas where green up has been delayed by drought, limiting a
wider fire weather concern.
...Northern Great Basin and Southern Idaho...
A plume of mid to upper-level sub-tropical moisture will arch from
the Sierra Nevada to southern ID, eastward into southern WY and the
CO Rockies on Sunday. Increasing daytime instability within this
corridor of moisture will support isolated high-based thunderstorm
development Sunday afternoon, although fuels (including ongoing
green up) continue to be a limiting factor in potential dry lighting
ignitions for Sunday. Thus, no dry thunderstorm highlights were
introduced for this update.
..Williams.. 05/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will shift eastward across the northern Great
Lakes region on D2/Sunday, with subtle/weak troughing also in place
across the Southern Plains. Upper-level ridging will linger over the
Southeast and Four Corners regions. A potent upper-level trough will
then approach the Pacific Northwest by the end of the period, with
weak troughing also moving onshore across southern
California/northwestern Mexico. At the surface, a quasi-stationary
surface boundary will extend from the southern Plains into the Ohio
Valley and Mid-Atlantic, with chances for wetting rainfall and
thunderstorms across much of the South and eastern CONUS.
Similar to D1/Saturday, warming temperatures under subtle ridging
will promote RH reductions to 10-20% across much of the West and
into the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. The lack of a
stronger surface pressure gradient will largely limit sustained
surface wind speeds and thus limit broad fire weather concerns.
Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in favored
terrain/gap areas, however. Locally elevated conditions may also be
possible across portions of northern Montana, especially where any
pockets of drier fine fuels may exist, where a tightened surface
pressure gradient on the southern periphery of a surface low may
support a brief overlap of sustained westerly surface winds of 10-15
mph and RH values of 20-25%.
Lingering mid-level moisture and well-mixed boundary layer profiles
ahead of a subtle mid-level perturbation may support isolated
high-based convection across higher-terrain areas of the northern
Great Basin Sunday afternoon. Limited lightning potential and
sub-critical fuels are again expected to temper the overall
lightning ignition threat at this time, however.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible through evening, mainly across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of West Texas. Other more
isolated severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast,
Ohio, and the central High Plains.
...20z Update...
The only changes to the 20z Day 1 Outlook are to remove
probabilities across parts of TX/LA/MS in the wake of an
northeastward-advancing MCS. Otherwise, forecast reasoning remains
similar to the previous outlook, detailed below. For more detailed
information on short term severe potential along the TX Coast and
the central High Plains, reference MCDs 838 and 839.
..Leitman.. 05/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026/
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An ongoing semi-well-organized cluster of storms appears to be aided
by an MCV, and will likely continue east-northeastward today across
the ArkLaMiss and broader parts of Mississippi, to the north of more
extensive weaker convection closer to the coast in southern
Louisiana. Ample heating ahead of the cluster and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support wind potential aside from a
modest MCV-related flow enhancement. A brief tornado could also
occur, although thunderstorm wind damage is most probable.
...West Texas/Southern High Plains...
Relatively weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern
aptly characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into
the evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob;
8.7 deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in
moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon, stronger with
southward extent across the Texas South Plains into southwest Texas.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from
near the Colorado/Panhandles border region southward into the
Edwards Plateau. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
the primary severe hazards. A gradual clustering is expected during
the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.
...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak mid-level disturbance will move east-northeastward today.
Ahead of it, adequate heating of a moist boundary layer will yield
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and scattered
showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will support
some multicellular organization in the form of a few thunderstorm
clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially
yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon before this
threat wanes by early evening.
...Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a
north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. The 30-40 kt
500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates may support
a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon
through early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threats
with these storms.
...Ohio...
A couple of rotating storms could develop regionally this afternoon
within a belt of residually strong low-level flow. A brief/low-end
tornado threat may exist.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible through evening, mainly across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of West Texas. Other more
isolated severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast,
Ohio, and the central High Plains.
...20z Update...
The only changes to the 20z Day 1 Outlook are to remove
probabilities across parts of TX/LA/MS in the wake of an
northeastward-advancing MCS. Otherwise, forecast reasoning remains
similar to the previous outlook, detailed below. For more detailed
information on short term severe potential along the TX Coast and
the central High Plains, reference MCDs 838 and 839.
..Leitman.. 05/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026/
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An ongoing semi-well-organized cluster of storms appears to be aided
by an MCV, and will likely continue east-northeastward today across
the ArkLaMiss and broader parts of Mississippi, to the north of more
extensive weaker convection closer to the coast in southern
Louisiana. Ample heating ahead of the cluster and steepening
low-level lapse rates will support wind potential aside from a
modest MCV-related flow enhancement. A brief tornado could also
occur, although thunderstorm wind damage is most probable.
...West Texas/Southern High Plains...
Relatively weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern
aptly characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into
the evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob;
8.7 deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in
moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon, stronger with
southward extent across the Texas South Plains into southwest Texas.
At least widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from
near the Colorado/Panhandles border region southward into the
Edwards Plateau. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
the primary severe hazards. A gradual clustering is expected during
the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.
...Georgia/South Carolina...
A weak mid-level disturbance will move east-northeastward today.
Ahead of it, adequate heating of a moist boundary layer will yield
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and scattered
showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will support
some multicellular organization in the form of a few thunderstorm
clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially
yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon before this
threat wanes by early evening.
...Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a
north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. The 30-40 kt
500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates may support
a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon
through early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threats
with these storms.
...Ohio...
A couple of rotating storms could develop regionally this afternoon
within a belt of residually strong low-level flow. A brief/low-end
tornado threat may exist.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for
Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.
...Synopsis...
Little change to the overall pattern expected across the CONUS on
Monday. A very slow-moving mid/upper low/trough is expected to
remain in the vicinity of east TX/western LA, which will maintain
potential for scattered to widespread thunderstorms across parts of
the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Another slow-moving mid/upper trough
will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest
and southern Rockies. A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough
will move into the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon and
evening.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region...
Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop Monday afternoon
from parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes,
though some uncertainty remains regarding the quality of low-level
moisture across this region.
Modest west-northwesterly midlevel flow will result in 30-40 kt of
effective shear across parts of MN/WI and Upper MI, but confidence
in storm development within this conditionally favorable environment
is low, with midlevel height rises and generally minimal large-scale
ascent expected across the region.
Forcing will also be weak into parts of the central Plains, but
strong heating and presence of a remnant surface boundary may
support isolated storm development from late afternoon into the
evening. A threat for localized hail and strong to severe gusts
could accompany the strongest storms, but weak deep-layer shear and
uncertainty regarding storm coverage limit confidence in organized
severe potential at this time.
...Southern NM into west TX...
Isolated strong storms could develop on Monday from parts of
southern NM into west TX, in advance of the mid/upper trough over
the Southwest. At this time, it appears that the stronger forcing
associated with the upper trough will remain displaced from the
richer moisture across parts of central/southwest TX through most of
the period. However, a faster trough ejection and/or more
substantial moisture return could result in an isolated severe
threat during the late afternoon and evening.
...Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast...
Modest enhancement to midlevel flow may continue across parts of the
Gulf Coast and Southeast, to the east of the persistent mid/upper
low/trough over east TX. Depending on the evolution of D1/D2
convection and any MCV development, a low-probability severe threat
could evolve over some part of this region, but confidence is much
too low to include probabilities at this time.
..Dean.. 05/23/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for
Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great
Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast.
...Synopsis...
Little change to the overall pattern expected across the CONUS on
Monday. A very slow-moving mid/upper low/trough is expected to
remain in the vicinity of east TX/western LA, which will maintain
potential for scattered to widespread thunderstorms across parts of
the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Another slow-moving mid/upper trough
will support thunderstorm potential across parts of the Southwest
and southern Rockies. A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough
will move into the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon and
evening.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region...
Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop Monday afternoon
from parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes,
though some uncertainty remains regarding the quality of low-level
moisture across this region.
Modest west-northwesterly midlevel flow will result in 30-40 kt of
effective shear across parts of MN/WI and Upper MI, but confidence
in storm development within this conditionally favorable environment
is low, with midlevel height rises and generally minimal large-scale
ascent expected across the region.
Forcing will also be weak into parts of the central Plains, but
strong heating and presence of a remnant surface boundary may
support isolated storm development from late afternoon into the
evening. A threat for localized hail and strong to severe gusts
could accompany the strongest storms, but weak deep-layer shear and
uncertainty regarding storm coverage limit confidence in organized
severe potential at this time.
...Southern NM into west TX...
Isolated strong storms could develop on Monday from parts of
southern NM into west TX, in advance of the mid/upper trough over
the Southwest. At this time, it appears that the stronger forcing
associated with the upper trough will remain displaced from the
richer moisture across parts of central/southwest TX through most of
the period. However, a faster trough ejection and/or more
substantial moisture return could result in an isolated severe
threat during the late afternoon and evening.
...Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast...
Modest enhancement to midlevel flow may continue across parts of the
Gulf Coast and Southeast, to the east of the persistent mid/upper
low/trough over east TX. Depending on the evolution of D1/D2
convection and any MCV development, a low-probability severe threat
could evolve over some part of this region, but confidence is much
too low to include probabilities at this time.
..Dean.. 05/23/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KS
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NE...SOUTHEAST SD...SOUTHWEST MN...NORTHWEST
IA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible from parts of the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest, mainly Sunday afternoon and
evening. Isolated large to very large hail and localized severe
gusts will be possible.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the Upper Midwest
will move over the Great Lakes region on Sunday. Broad southerly
flow between a surface ridge near the mid MS Valley and a lee trough
over the High Plains will result in some moisture return into parts
of the central Plains and Upper Midwest, though the magnitude of
this moisture return remains somewhat uncertain. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and relatively cool midlevel temperatures atop the
returning moisture will result in moderate to locally strong
destabilization by late afternoon.
Broad midlevel height rises are expected across the region, in the
wake of the departing shortwave trough. However, guidance suggests
that one or more weak midlevel vorticity maxima may aid in at least
isolated diurnal thunderstorm development near a weak surface
trough/dryline from central NE into southeast SD/southwest MN.
Deep-layer flow will remain generally modest, but veering wind
profiles and 30-40 kt of effective shear will conditionally support
supercells, if surface-based development can be sustained. Large to
very large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany any
supercell development during the afternoon and evening.
A Level 2/Slight Risk upgrade was considered for parts of the
region, but due to uncertainties regarding low-level moisture and
storm coverage, have opted to maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk, with
a conditional area highlighting very large hail potential, should
any sustained supercells develop.
...Southeast/southern Appalachians...
Scattered thunderstorm development is again expected across the
region, within a moist and uncapped environment. A belt of 20-30 kt
midlevel flow to the east of the mid/upper trough across TX will
provide modest deep-layer shear, but weak midlevel lapse rates will
tend to limit updraft intensity. Locally damaging wind cannot be
ruled out with convection across the region, but the
organized-severe threat currently appears too limited and nebulous
to include probabilities at this time. If a robust MCV emerges from
extensive convection near the Gulf Coast, then somewhat more
organized severe potential could evolve through the day.
...LA Gulf Coast/Lower MS Valley vicinity...
Widespread convection is expected to persist from D1/Saturday into
D2/Sunday across parts of the LA Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley, as
the nearly stationary mid/upper trough over TX interacts with rich
moisture. Generally weak flow and lapse rates are currently expected
to limit the organized-severe threat. Any more organized potential
for a brief tornado or locally damaging wind would likely be
contingent on MCV development, but this scenario remains highly
uncertain at this time.
...Lower OH Valley/Allegheny Plateau...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Ohio
Valley and Allegheny Plateau during the afternoon, in association
with the mid/upper trough moving across the Great Lakes region.
Modest midlevel flow will overspread the region and isolated strong
storms will be possible, but weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy
are expected to limit severe potential.
..Dean.. 05/23/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the
southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio
Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska
into southwest Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely south of a
stationary front extending from the southern Plains into the lower
Ohio Valley. A few additional thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern High Plains within the easterly upslope regime. A weak
shortwave trough will move across the central/northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest on D2/Sunday, which may be a focus of thunderstorm
development across portions of Nebraska into Minnesota. Large hail
and damaging wind will be the primary threat with these storms.
...Nebraska into Minnesota...
A plume of mid 50s to 60s dew points will advect northward into
portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota Sunday
afternoon amid increasing southerly flow across the central/northern
Plains. A weak shortwave will move eastward across this area with
thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon. Forecast soundings
suggest that deep layer shear will be sufficient to support
supercells, with around 40 kts in the 0-6 km layer. In addition to
the increase in moisture, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
also overspread the area. This, in combination with strong deep
layer shear, will favor potential for large hail (isolated very
large hail up to 2" in diameter). Well mixed profiles may also
support a few instances of strong to severe wind.
..Thornton.. 05/23/2026
Read more
MD 0833 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0833
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Areas affected...parts of southwestern into south central Oklahoma
through central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 230456Z - 230730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong lingering storms may be slow to undergo substantive
further weakening, and could continue to pose a risk for localized
strong to severe gusts and some hail through 1-3 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...Near the leading edge of a broad and otherwise
weakening eastward propagating, convectively generated surface cold
pool, a narrow corridor of 2-4 mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises
has developed as vigorous convective development persists. This is
being aided by continuing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer
air characterized by sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, as lift
remains sufficient to overcome increasing inhibition with surface
cooling.
How long this persists remains unclear. Mid/upper support does not
appear particularly strong, and vertical shear is generally weak, in
the presence of 10-15 kt westerly deep-layer mean wind fields.
However, given the current strength of the ongoing convective
development, and the potential instability present ahead of activity
across and east of the I-35 corridor, storms may be slow to undergo
substantive further weakening as it slowly develops eastward through
06-08Z.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...
LAT...LON 30869831 31569847 31689860 32589806 33389811 33909806
34189847 34479870 34939854 35029781 34499666 31439710
30869831
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will shift eastward across the northern Great
Lakes region on D2/Sunday, with subtle/weak troughing also in place
across the Southern Plains. Upper-level ridging will linger over the
Southeast and Four Corners regions. A potent upper-level trough will
then approach the Pacific Northwest by the end of the period, with
weak troughing also moving onshore across southern
California/northwestern Mexico. At the surface, a quasi-stationary
surface boundary will extend from the southern Plains into the Ohio
Valley and Mid-Atlantic, with chances for wetting rainfall and
thunderstorms across much of the South and eastern CONUS.
Similar to D1/Saturday, warming temperatures under subtle ridging
will promote RH reductions to 10-20% across much of the West and
into the northern High Plains Sunday afternoon. The lack of a
stronger surface pressure gradient will largely limit sustained
surface wind speeds and thus limit broad fire weather concerns.
Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in favored
terrain/gap areas, however. Locally elevated conditions may also be
possible across portions of northern Montana, especially where any
pockets of drier fine fuels may exist, where a tightened surface
pressure gradient on the southern periphery of a surface low may
support a brief overlap of sustained westerly surface winds of 10-15
mph and RH values of 20-25%.
Lingering mid-level moisture and well-mixed boundary layer profiles
ahead of a subtle mid-level perturbation may support isolated
high-based convection across higher-terrain areas of the northern
Great Basin Sunday afternoon. Limited lightning potential and
sub-critical fuels are again expected to temper the overall
lightning ignition threat at this time, however.
..Chalmers.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will persist across the northern Great Plains
and Midwest today, with ridging in place across much of the
Southeast/East Coast. Upper-level ridging will also gradually build
across much of the western CONUS through the period. At the surface,
a series of frontal systems will progress across the Great Plains
and eastern CONUS, with several mid-level perturbations promoting
the potential for wetting rainfall across much of the Southern
Plains and eastern US.
Warming temperatures under the gradually building ridge will support
RH reductions to 10-20% across much of the Southwest and portions of
the Great Basin this afternoon. Weak surface pressure gradient
magnitudes and, subsequently, generally light surface winds will
largely temper broad fire weather concerns across the region.
Sustained westerly/southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph may promote
locally elevated fire weather concerns in favored gap/terrain areas,
however.
Mid-level moisture atop deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles may
support weak buoyancy and isolated high-based convection over higher
terrain across portions of the western Great Basin into far
northeastern California and southern Oregon this afternoon.
Generally limited lightning potential and sub-critical fuels should
temper the overall lightning ignition threat, however.
..Chalmers.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...FROM GEORGIA
INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern
Plains. A few strong wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will
be possible from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. A few
strong gusts may also occur from Georgia into South Carolina. An
isolated tornado threat is also expected in parts of Ohio.
...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward today across the Great
Plains. At the surface, a broad moist sector will be in place across
the southern Plains where dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F. In
response, an axis of moderate instability will develop by afternoon
from the Texas Panhandle southward into west Texas. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form during the mid to late afternoon
near this axis of instability. RAP forecast soundings in the Texas
Panhandle in the late afternoon have MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg and 0-6
km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates
around 8 C/km. This should support a marginal severe threat.
Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible.
...South-central and Southeast Texas/Southern Louisiana...
In the coastal areas of the western and central Gulf, very moist air
will be in place. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will
contribute to moderate instability by midday. Thunderstorms will
form along sea breeze boundaries during the early to mid afternoon.
A few severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible.
Further west into parts of south-central Texas, moderate to strong
instability is forecast by afternoon with MLCAPE peaking in the 2500
to 3500 J/kg range. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear,
may support isolated severe storm development this afternoon. The
primary threats would be for hail and isolated severe wind gusts.
...Georgia/South Carolina...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Southeast today.
At the surface, moist air will be in place from the Gulf Coast
states into the Carolinas, where moderate instability will develop
by midday. During the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will form
from Georgia into South Carolina. As instability increases during
the day, low-level lapse rates will become steep. This should be
sufficient for an isolated potential for severe wind gusts.
...Ohio...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes today. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will be located from eastern Kentucky into central and
northern Ohio, where dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F. As
instability increases during the day, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop and move northeastward across the instability
corridor. RAP forecast soundings in central Ohio at 21Z have 0-6 km
shear near 30 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 150
m2/s2. This could be enough for an isolated tornado threat.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 05/23/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from
the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and
southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe
thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia.
...Synopsis...
A weak impulse will rotate across the central Plains on D2/Saturday
as a surface low moves northward across the Ohio Valley. A trailing
cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern
Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley
and across the Southeast. A few stronger storms may be possible
across portions of the southern Plains and the southeastern US.
...TX/OK Panhandles...
Weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the Caprock
and into the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico will produce
scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon. These are
progged to move eastward downstream across the Panhandles into
portions of western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings suggest a plume of
steep to low mid-level lapse rates will still reside across the
OK/TX Panhandles with mid 50s to 60s dew points and moderate
instability. Shear profiles will be marginal, with deep layer shear
around 25-30 kts. Nonetheless, a few more organized storms may
produce strong to severe wind and instances of severe hail.
...Middle Texas Coast...
Thunderstorm activity is expected to form near the Edwards Plateau
on Saturday afternoon and move south and east towards the middle
Texas coast. Ahead of this, moderate to strong afternoon instability
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place across
portions of southern Texas. Some enhancement of
deep-layer shear is forecast across south TX, which will may provide
opportunity for cold pool organization and damaging wind.
...Central/Southern Georgia...
A weak shortwave will move across Georgia Saturday afternoon as
widely scattered thunderstorm development occurs. Most guidance
suggests deep layer shear around 30-40 kts which may allow for a few
more organized cells. These may produce a few instances of strong to
severe wind.
..Thornton.. 05/22/2026
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