Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern will to transition to quasi-zonal flow on Day 3/Wednesday. Simultaneously, a weak shortwave trough will drift southward over the Intermountain West and across the northern U.S. through late this week. A combination of below normal temperatures and fairly widespread precipitation will overspread much of the central and eastern portions of the CONUS as synoptic flow stabilizes into the weekend. This could briefly dampen the fire weather threat across much of the country and support additional green up in some locations, particularly across the northern CONUS, that have thus far been struggling to grow fire-slowing vegetation. However, much longer duration precipitation and cool conditions would be needed to appreciably improve heavy dead fuel moisture and resultant ERCs. On Day 3/Wednesday, lingering moderate southwesterly flow aloft will encourage breezy conditions amid a dry airmass across central-western NM and eastern AZ. 40% Critical probabilities remain where southwest winds sustained at 10-20 mph will align with minimum RH of 10-20% atop dry fuels. On Day 4/Thursday, persisting low RH across the Southwest with much lighter winds will preclude the introduction of probabilities. Beyond Day 5/Friday, guidance begins to vary in the timing/extent of embedded shortwaves and associated chances of precipitation. Nonetheless, the overall upper pattern suggests dampened fire weather conditions on a broader scale through the forecast period, in the exception of localized terrain-driven breezy conditions across parts of the West. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0775 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0775 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma into Southwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181931Z - 182130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible this afternoon. The degree of tornado/very-large hail threat will depend on a discrete storm mode. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus are increasing in the vicinity of Dodge City as convergence along a cold front has increased over the past couple of hours. With 40+ kt of effective shear and observed 7.9 C/km mid-level lapse rate on the 18Z DDC sounding, initial supercells capable of very-large hail and severe winds can be expected. Tornadoes will also be possible where discrete modes can be maintained longer given the low-level shear. However, the linear forcing from the cold front may be enough to encourage a quick transition to a more linear mode. Regardless of the exact evolution, all severe hazards will be possible. A watch will likely be needed this afternoon. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36499920 36489977 36590009 36800021 37240015 37729977 37999955 38189903 38149863 37889833 37319824 36819839 36499920 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN Read more

MD 0776 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0776 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...Western Oklahoma into Northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182007Z - 182200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Though quite uncertain, storm development along the dryline is possible late this afternoon. All severe hazards would be possible if storms can form and mature. Convective trends will be monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Observations from the West Texas Mesonet show 100+ F temperatures within the eastern Panhandle/South Plains. Cumulus along the dryline have showed some increase in agitation in southwest Oklahoma resulting from the strong dryline circulation. While the 18Z OUN sounding did show a capping inversion, a more recent TAMDAR sounding from OKC did show very modest cooling/lifting of that inversion. Those signs of larger-scale lift may be all that will be observed for the remainder of the afternoon/evening. Model guidance shows modest mid-level height rises are forecast to occur. There is low confidence in storms being able to initiate/mature. If a storm or two can form, the environment would support all hazards. Convective trends will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 33879923 33699954 33749970 33939990 34159976 34759961 35729962 36189988 36379984 36419938 36169888 35219877 34259902 33879923 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0777 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0777 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...Portions of Mid-Missouri Valley Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 182029Z - 182230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms will increase into the evening. Tornadoes will remain possible along the Iowa/Missouri border with hail becoming the primary hazard with northward extent. One or more watches will be needed this afternoon. DISCUSSION...At least modest airmass recovery has occurred along the Iowa/Missouri border region. Dewpoints have risen into the mid 60s to low 70s F in some locations. North of the boundary, steep mid-level lapse rates are in place per the 18Z OAX sounding. As the shortwave trough moves into the area, additional storm development is likely. This is already occurring in eastern Nebraska. Furthermore, additional theta-e advection ahead of the ongoing supercells in north-central Kansas and southeast Nebraska will allow a tornado threat to persist northeast of PDS WW 222. One or more watches will be needed this afternoon. The tornado threat will be maximized south of the boundary with a transition to more of a hail threat with elevated storms to the north. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40569724 41199752 41659722 41989617 41969535 41769429 41399360 40759341 40029371 39529415 39589472 39809501 40569724 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0225 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE RSL TO 30 NW SLN TO 20 NE CNK TO 25 SSW BIE TO 20 SSW LNK. ..WENDT..05/18/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC013-027-029-041-053-061-085-113-115-117-127-131-143-149-159- 161-169-201-182140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON ELLSWORTH GEARY JACKSON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RICE RILEY SALINE WASHINGTON NEC067-097-127-131-133-147-182140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GAGE JOHNSON NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0224 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 224 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..05/18/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 224 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-057-097-145-151-185-182140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FORD KIOWA PAWNEE PRATT STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE SLO TO 15 W BMG TO 30 E IND TO 30 SE FWA TO 40 E FWA TO 10 W TOL. ..HALBERT..05/18/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IWX...IND...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC059-065-075-081-109-119-135-145-153-182140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HENRY JAY JOHNSON MORGAN OWEN RANDOLPH SHELBY SULLIVAN OHC003-011-051-069-107-137-161-182140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AUGLAIZE FULTON HENRY MERCER PUTNAM VAN WERT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE SLO TO 15 W BMG TO 30 E IND TO 30 SE FWA TO 40 E FWA TO 10 W TOL. ..HALBERT..05/18/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IWX...IND...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC059-065-075-081-109-119-135-145-153-182140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HENRY JAY JOHNSON MORGAN OWEN RANDOLPH SHELBY SULLIVAN OHC003-011-051-069-107-137-161-182140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AUGLAIZE FULTON HENRY MERCER PUTNAM VAN WERT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 220 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI OH LM 181505Z - 182200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Illinois Northern and Central Indiana Southwest Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1105 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over central Illinois will track northeastward through the day across the watch area. Swaths of damaging winds are expected with the more intense line segments. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Champaign IL to 55 miles east of Fort Wayne IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW TOL TO 15 SW FNT TO 15 NNW FNT TO 20 NNW MBS TO 45 SW HTL. ..HALBERT..05/18/26 ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC001-007-011-017-035-039-049-051-063-069-087-091-093-099-115- 119-125-129-135-137-141-143-147-151-157-161-163-182140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCONA ALPENA ARENAC BAY CLARE CRAWFORD GENESEE GLADWIN HURON IOSCO LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MONROE MONTMORENCY OAKLAND OGEMAW OSCODA OTSEGO PRESQUE ISLE ROSCOMMON ST. CLAIR SANILAC TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ347-348-349-361-362-363-421-422-441-442- 443-462-463-464-182140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER Read more

WW 221 SEVERE TSTM MI LE LH LM 181700Z - 190000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Lower Michigan Lake Erie Lake Huron Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms over southern Lake Michigan will track northeastward across the watch, while other storms form over northern Lower Michigan. All of these storms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail through the afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles south of Jackson MI to 40 miles northwest of Alpena MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 220... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and multiple strong to intense tornadoes remain likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri. ...20z Update Midwest Lower Great Lakes... An expansive MCS remains ongoing over portions of the lower Great Lakes this afternoon. The environment ahead of the complex is unstable, but with gradually decreasing moisture/buoyancy farther east. An isolated severe risk likely exists ahead of the line across OH and lower MI through this evening. A large cold pool behind the complex has overturned the air mass across much of northern IL, southern WI and eastern IA. This should greatly limit air mass recovery this afternoon and evening. Additional convection originating from the central Plains and mid MO valley may continue eastward, but is forecasted to weaken as it encounters the cooler air mass tonight. Isolated storms, likely elevated, could persist with a risk for hail, but the severe potential has decreased such that, probabilities were lowered. ...Central Plains and Mid MO Valley... Several supercells and organized clusters have emerged across parts of KS and southern NE. A very unstable and strongly sheared environment remains in place ahead of these storms. This should support a risk for all hazards, include strong tornadoes, very large hail, and significant damaging winds. Current expectations are for the individual supercells to grow upscale into one or more clusters as they interact with a modifying outflow boundary across northeast KS and northwestern MO. While the environment becomes gradually less unstable farther north and east, very strong shear will likely support a continued risk for all hazards this evening. The western portions of the risk area has been trimmed in parts of central KS where the cold front has sagged southward. ...Southwest TX.. Strong diurnal heating along southern portions of the dryline has resulted in isolated storm development this afternoon. Very large buoyancy (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates will likely continue to support high-based isolated storms. Vertical shear is marginal, but sufficient for supercells with hail and damaging wind potential. Have extended severe probabilities southward along the dryline. ..Lyons.. 05/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026/ ...Central Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a potent shortwave trough rotating across the central Rockies into western KS. The primary surface boundary extends from western IA into central KS, with a pronounced outflow boundary associated with overnight convection extending from southeast KS into southern MO. The outflow boundary will lift northward today, allowing a very moist and extremely unstable air mass to spread into eastern KS/northwest MO/extreme southeast NE/southwest IA. This is the area most concerning for intense supercells later today. Initial storms are expected to develop by early afternoon near the triple point of the retreating outflow boundary and cold front. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon and early evening in a strongly sheared environment favorable for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. It remains unclear how stormscale interactions will impact discrete supercell mode, but strong tornadoes are a concern in this region. Farther southwest, thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the cold front across south-central KS by late afternoon. Recent CAM solutions suggest these storms may be affected by the linear frontal forcing, and may be slightly anafrontal. This would lessen the tornado risk, but very large hail and damaging winds would remain a concern. No changes have been made to the Moderate Risk area due to conflicting model signals. ...Western OK/Northwest TX... Full sunshine will lead to hot temperatures along the dryline over western OK into northwest TX. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in this area, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Weak large scale forcing may limit storm duration and intensity. ...OH Valley/Great Lakes... A line of thunderstorms along the IL/IN border is tracking northeastward into a warm/moist air mass. Relatively strong low-level wind fields and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a continued risk of scattered wind damage with the strongest storms as they track across parts of IN/Lower MI/Northwest OH. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and multiple strong to intense tornadoes remain likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri. ...20z Update Midwest Lower Great Lakes... An expansive MCS remains ongoing over portions of the lower Great Lakes this afternoon. The environment ahead of the complex is unstable, but with gradually decreasing moisture/buoyancy farther east. An isolated severe risk likely exists ahead of the line across OH and lower MI through this evening. A large cold pool behind the complex has overturned the air mass across much of northern IL, southern WI and eastern IA. This should greatly limit air mass recovery this afternoon and evening. Additional convection originating from the central Plains and mid MO valley may continue eastward, but is forecasted to weaken as it encounters the cooler air mass tonight. Isolated storms, likely elevated, could persist with a risk for hail, but the severe potential has decreased such that, probabilities were lowered. ...Central Plains and Mid MO Valley... Several supercells and organized clusters have emerged across parts of KS and southern NE. A very unstable and strongly sheared environment remains in place ahead of these storms. This should support a risk for all hazards, include strong tornadoes, very large hail, and significant damaging winds. Current expectations are for the individual supercells to grow upscale into one or more clusters as they interact with a modifying outflow boundary across northeast KS and northwestern MO. While the environment becomes gradually less unstable farther north and east, very strong shear will likely support a continued risk for all hazards this evening. The western portions of the risk area has been trimmed in parts of central KS where the cold front has sagged southward. ...Southwest TX.. Strong diurnal heating along southern portions of the dryline has resulted in isolated storm development this afternoon. Very large buoyancy (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg) and steep lapse rates will likely continue to support high-based isolated storms. Vertical shear is marginal, but sufficient for supercells with hail and damaging wind potential. Have extended severe probabilities southward along the dryline. ..Lyons.. 05/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026/ ...Central Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a potent shortwave trough rotating across the central Rockies into western KS. The primary surface boundary extends from western IA into central KS, with a pronounced outflow boundary associated with overnight convection extending from southeast KS into southern MO. The outflow boundary will lift northward today, allowing a very moist and extremely unstable air mass to spread into eastern KS/northwest MO/extreme southeast NE/southwest IA. This is the area most concerning for intense supercells later today. Initial storms are expected to develop by early afternoon near the triple point of the retreating outflow boundary and cold front. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon and early evening in a strongly sheared environment favorable for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. It remains unclear how stormscale interactions will impact discrete supercell mode, but strong tornadoes are a concern in this region. Farther southwest, thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the cold front across south-central KS by late afternoon. Recent CAM solutions suggest these storms may be affected by the linear frontal forcing, and may be slightly anafrontal. This would lessen the tornado risk, but very large hail and damaging winds would remain a concern. No changes have been made to the Moderate Risk area due to conflicting model signals. ...Western OK/Northwest TX... Full sunshine will lead to hot temperatures along the dryline over western OK into northwest TX. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in this area, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Weak large scale forcing may limit storm duration and intensity. ...OH Valley/Great Lakes... A line of thunderstorms along the IL/IN border is tracking northeastward into a warm/moist air mass. Relatively strong low-level wind fields and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a continued risk of scattered wind damage with the strongest storms as they track across parts of IN/Lower MI/Northwest OH. Read more

WW 0223 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0223 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 223 SEVERE TSTM OH LE 181935Z - 190100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Ohio Lake Erie * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms entering western Ohio will track eastward into the watch area this afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts are the main concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east southeast of Findlay OH to 30 miles east northeast of Toledo OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 220...WW 221...WW 222... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Afternoon Update... Slight adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights across the Southwest based on recent guidance. Broad southwesterly winds of up to 15 mph will align with 15-20% RH atop dry fuels on Tuesday afternoon. Locally critical conditions may arise in terrain-favored areas where winds exceed 15 mph and RH decreases to near 10%, especially within the Middle Rio Grande Valley. Farther west, locally elevated fire weather conditions could emerge across the wind prone areas of Southern California where offshore winds are maximized (localized gusts exceeding 30 mph) alongside 10-15% RH atop dry grasses and shrubs. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will meander over the Intermountain West tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging weak surface troughing over the Desert Southwest. Southerly flow will increase with daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing, with 15 mph sustained wind speeds likely amid 15-20 percent RH. Elevated highlights were introduced for central and southern New Mexico and immediate surrounding areas, where fuels are dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Afternoon Update... Slight adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights across the Southwest based on recent guidance. Broad southwesterly winds of up to 15 mph will align with 15-20% RH atop dry fuels on Tuesday afternoon. Locally critical conditions may arise in terrain-favored areas where winds exceed 15 mph and RH decreases to near 10%, especially within the Middle Rio Grande Valley. Farther west, locally elevated fire weather conditions could emerge across the wind prone areas of Southern California where offshore winds are maximized (localized gusts exceeding 30 mph) alongside 10-15% RH atop dry grasses and shrubs. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will meander over the Intermountain West tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging weak surface troughing over the Desert Southwest. Southerly flow will increase with daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing, with 15 mph sustained wind speeds likely amid 15-20 percent RH. Elevated highlights were introduced for central and southern New Mexico and immediate surrounding areas, where fuels are dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday may pose a risk for sporadic occurrences of damaging wind. Large hail is expected to be the predominant hazard with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks will progress from the Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley, with a modest enhancement to the westerly, mid-level flow as far south as southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic region. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough initially near the Four Corners region will weaken while moving into confluent, mid-level flow over the central and southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeast through New England and the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday, with an upslope regime becoming established over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic... A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to develop ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon, along the immediate southern fringe of the stronger mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer shear. The generally weak warm-sector shear and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit the potential for a more robust severe-weather threat. However, the presence of steep low-level lapse rates will support locally strong up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of damaging winds during the afternoon and early-evening hours. ...Southern High Plains into southwest Texas... Surface ridging initially over the southern High Plains Wednesday morning is forecast to weaken through the day with a narrow wedge of 50s to low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints from the Edwards Plateau into southeast NM, to the south of a weakening surface front. The moisture will combine with steep low/mid-level lapse rates to support a corridor of moderate, surface-based instability by afternoon. A broader envelope of moderate, elevated instability is expected to develop over the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into night, to the north of the front. Low-level upslope flow into the high terrain of NM and southwest TX will be augmented by the glancing influence of the short-wave trough to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon amidst a kinematic environment featuring 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. The primary hazard will be sporadic large-hail occurrences. Additional, elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon into evening across the TX South Plains into west-central TX, within a strengthening warm-advection regime. While deep-layer shear is expected to be weaker than locations to west/southwest, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will support vigorous updrafts capable of isolated, large hail occurrences. ..Mead.. 05/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday may pose a risk for sporadic occurrences of damaging wind. Large hail is expected to be the predominant hazard with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks will progress from the Great Lakes through the St. Lawrence Valley, with a modest enhancement to the westerly, mid-level flow as far south as southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic region. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough initially near the Four Corners region will weaken while moving into confluent, mid-level flow over the central and southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeast through New England and the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday, with an upslope regime becoming established over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic... A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to develop ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon, along the immediate southern fringe of the stronger mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer shear. The generally weak warm-sector shear and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit the potential for a more robust severe-weather threat. However, the presence of steep low-level lapse rates will support locally strong up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of damaging winds during the afternoon and early-evening hours. ...Southern High Plains into southwest Texas... Surface ridging initially over the southern High Plains Wednesday morning is forecast to weaken through the day with a narrow wedge of 50s to low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints from the Edwards Plateau into southeast NM, to the south of a weakening surface front. The moisture will combine with steep low/mid-level lapse rates to support a corridor of moderate, surface-based instability by afternoon. A broader envelope of moderate, elevated instability is expected to develop over the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into night, to the north of the front. Low-level upslope flow into the high terrain of NM and southwest TX will be augmented by the glancing influence of the short-wave trough to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon amidst a kinematic environment featuring 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. The primary hazard will be sporadic large-hail occurrences. Additional, elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon into evening across the TX South Plains into west-central TX, within a strengthening warm-advection regime. While deep-layer shear is expected to be weaker than locations to west/southwest, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will support vigorous updrafts capable of isolated, large hail occurrences. ..Mead.. 05/18/2026 Read more