Storm Prediction Center

MD 0772 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 220... FOR WESTERN INDIANA INTO EASTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0772 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...Western Indiana into Eastern Ohio Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220... Valid 181850Z - 182015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 220 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms persist and are progressing eastward across WW 220. They will continue to be capable of primarily damaging wind gusts. Conditions are being monitored for a new WW issued east of WW 220. DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms continues to progress across WW 220. Though the expectation is that the line should begin to weaken with eastward extent, it will still be capable of damaging wind gusts of 55-70 MPH within WW 220. Conditions will continue to be monitored for a new WW eastward into Ohio, though uncertainty exists in the convective longevity. Though the instability generally decreases with eastward extent, the well-established cold-pool could aid in persisting convection further east than the current WW 220 boundary. ..Halbert.. 05/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 39398604 39398620 39498680 39738654 40458605 40828578 41118562 41508561 42008568 42098551 42058498 42028458 41858403 41688362 41368311 40938303 40348321 39768352 39358400 39208437 39238519 39278552 39398604 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0773 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 222... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0773 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...North-central Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 222... Valid 181907Z - 182030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 222 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat is increasing in parts of north-central Kansas. A strong to intense tornado is possible in this environment. DISCUSSION...Several discrete storms have developed in the vicinity of Concordia, KS. The strongest storm so far is in Lincoln County, KS and has shown signs of increasing inflow and mesocyclone strength. This storm will pose the greatest tornado threat as it will most likely have more residence time in the most favorable environment. Given the location of these storms within the modified outflow with backed surface winds and an expected increase in the 850 mb winds through the afternoon, this activity will be the primary focus for tornado potential over the next 2-3 hours. Surface winds near Great Bend/Russell have trended more westerly, but farther north, where these storms are ongoing, the winds remain more northeasterly/northerly. This at least suggests that the linear forcing will remain weak in the short term and keep discrete modes deeper into the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38819834 39129822 39509795 39889755 40009728 40069686 39959654 39819645 39629650 39149707 38899765 38769810 38819834 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN Read more

WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N SLO TO 20 SW HUF TO 25 E HUF TO 40 E LAF TO 30 WNW FWA TO 25 SSW AZO TO 15 W AZO. ..HALBERT..05/18/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IWX...IND...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC025-033-079-101-159-181940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAWFORD JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND INC001-003-009-011-021-033-035-053-057-059-063-065-067-069-075- 081-087-095-097-103-109-113-119-133-135-145-151-153-159-169-179- 183-181940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD BOONE CLAY DE KALB DELAWARE GRANT HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD HUNTINGTON JAY JOHNSON LAGRANGE MADISON MARION MIAMI MORGAN NOBLE OWEN PUTNAM Read more

WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..05/18/26 ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC001-005-007-009-011-015-017-019-025-029-031-035-037-039-045- 047-049-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-081-085-087- 089-091-093-099-101-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-129-133- 135-137-139-141-143-145-147-151-155-157-159-161-163-165- 181940- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCONA ALLEGAN ALPENA ANTRIM ARENAC BARRY BAY BENZIE CALHOUN CHARLEVOIX CHEBOYGAN CLARE CLINTON CRAWFORD EATON EMMET GENESEE GLADWIN GRAND TRAVERSE GRATIOT HURON INGHAM IONIA IOSCO ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO KALKASKA KENT LAKE LAPEER LEELANAU LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MANISTEE MECOSTA MIDLAND MISSAUKEE MONROE MONTCALM MONTMORENCY MUSKEGON NEWAYGO OAKLAND OGEMAW OSCEOLA OSCODA OTSEGO OTTAWA PRESQUE ISLE Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Iowa Central and Eastern Kansas Northwest Missouri Southeast Nebraska Northern Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a couple intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Widespread baseball-size hail * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and multiple strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Iowa Central and Eastern Kansas Northwest Missouri Southeast Nebraska Northern Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a couple intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Widespread baseball-size hail * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and multiple strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0222 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough over the northern Plains into upper MS Valley Tuesday morning will translate northeast into Ontario with an associated belt of strong mid-level flow overspreading the Great Lakes. The stronger mid-level winds will extend southwest into the central High Plains, downstream from a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Basin and lower CO Valley. At the surface, low pressure associated with northern Plains disturbance will develop from the upper Great Lakes through southeast Ontario into Quebec. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will move through the Great Lakes and OH Valley, with the trailing extension of the boundary advancing through the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The cold front and any preceding outflow boundaries associated with early-day convection will serve as the main foci for diurnally enhanced strong to severe storm development. ...Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes and New England... A southwesterly low-level jet will sustain a moist boundary layer across the pre-frontal warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to perhaps low 70s in the OH Valley. The moisture will combine with daytime heating to support MLCAPE ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg across the mid/lower Great Lakes into New England, with as high as 2000-3000 J/kg forecast in the OH Valley. A broad zone of low-level warm advection coupled with the glancing influence of the Ontario short-wave trough are expected to support a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic cold front. The strongest low/mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer shear is forecast to reside across the Great Lakes and northern New England, where transient bowing and/or supercell structures appear possible. Weaker shear with southward extent into the OH Valley will be supportive of multicell clusters. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard in both regimes, though isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are also possible. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning along or ahead of the cold front from the Ozarks into OK. Daytime heating of the downstream air mass coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s and steepening mid-level lapse rates with southwestward extent will support moderate to strong afternoon instability with MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg. The 12z models suggest that a subset of the early-day storms will intensify by afternoon across the Ozark Plateau with additional thunderstorm development anticipated along the synoptic cold front and preceding convective outflow boundaries from the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains. There is some model signal that one or multiple, weak disturbances will translate from the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau during the day, which will aid in the diurnally enhanced storm development. As alluded to in the synopsis, the strongest mid-level flow and associated vertical shear is expected remain confined to the post-frontal air mass. The exception will be across parts of the TX Permian Basin into the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, where easterly low-level winds ahead of front will augment modest mid-level flow to support 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. As such, predominant convective modes will be multicell clusters and line segments capable of damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Large hail potential (some hailstones in excess of 2") increases with southwestward extent into TX owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates and the potential for supercell storm modes, given the stronger vertical shear. ..Mead.. 05/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and the southern Plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough over the northern Plains into upper MS Valley Tuesday morning will translate northeast into Ontario with an associated belt of strong mid-level flow overspreading the Great Lakes. The stronger mid-level winds will extend southwest into the central High Plains, downstream from a positively tilted trough moving through the Great Basin and lower CO Valley. At the surface, low pressure associated with northern Plains disturbance will develop from the upper Great Lakes through southeast Ontario into Quebec. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will move through the Great Lakes and OH Valley, with the trailing extension of the boundary advancing through the mid MS Valley and southern Plains. The cold front and any preceding outflow boundaries associated with early-day convection will serve as the main foci for diurnally enhanced strong to severe storm development. ...Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes and New England... A southwesterly low-level jet will sustain a moist boundary layer across the pre-frontal warm sector with dewpoints in the 60s to perhaps low 70s in the OH Valley. The moisture will combine with daytime heating to support MLCAPE ranging from 1000-1500 J/kg across the mid/lower Great Lakes into New England, with as high as 2000-3000 J/kg forecast in the OH Valley. A broad zone of low-level warm advection coupled with the glancing influence of the Ontario short-wave trough are expected to support a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic cold front. The strongest low/mid-level flow and resultant deep-layer shear is forecast to reside across the Great Lakes and northern New England, where transient bowing and/or supercell structures appear possible. Weaker shear with southward extent into the OH Valley will be supportive of multicell clusters. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard in both regimes, though isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are also possible. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning along or ahead of the cold front from the Ozarks into OK. Daytime heating of the downstream air mass coupled with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s and steepening mid-level lapse rates with southwestward extent will support moderate to strong afternoon instability with MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg. The 12z models suggest that a subset of the early-day storms will intensify by afternoon across the Ozark Plateau with additional thunderstorm development anticipated along the synoptic cold front and preceding convective outflow boundaries from the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains. There is some model signal that one or multiple, weak disturbances will translate from the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau during the day, which will aid in the diurnally enhanced storm development. As alluded to in the synopsis, the strongest mid-level flow and associated vertical shear is expected remain confined to the post-frontal air mass. The exception will be across parts of the TX Permian Basin into the Big Bend and Edwards Plateau, where easterly low-level winds ahead of front will augment modest mid-level flow to support 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. As such, predominant convective modes will be multicell clusters and line segments capable of damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Large hail potential (some hailstones in excess of 2") increases with southwestward extent into TX owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates and the potential for supercell storm modes, given the stronger vertical shear. ..Mead.. 05/18/2026 Read more

MD 0770 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0770 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181638Z - 181745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed as the northern edge of a QLCS/Bow Echo moves across Lake Michigan and into lower Michigan. DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a bow-echo currently moving across Lake Michigan will pose a threat for damaging winds gusts across lower and central Michigan this afternoon. Low-level lapse rates and strong buoyancy will support continued convective development along the leading edge of the bow echo, and large DCAPE will support strong downdrafts capable of 65-80 MPH gusts. ..Halbert/Hart.. 05/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 41498662 41608738 41868756 42078775 42168788 42268769 43008587 43398434 43718346 43788295 43668267 43468248 42998230 42468257 42378285 41978316 41688366 41568476 41498662 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0771 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0771 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Areas affected...South-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 181659Z - 181900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A favorable environment for all severe hazards--including very-large/giant hail and strong to intense tornadoes--will develop through the afternoon. A tornado watch is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Cumulus along the cold front in central Kansas as well as near the outflow/front triple point continue to show signs of gradual deepening. Given the upper 60s/low 70s F dewpoints surging northward into central Kansas, MLCIN should continue to erode relatively quickly. Storm initiation could be early/mid afternoon. Outflow from earlier convection is also being modified in northeast Kansas. Here, surface winds will be more backed. The KTWX VAD profile shows strong low-level veering. Deep-layer shear and steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support supercells capable of severe winds, very-large to perhaps giant hail, and tornadoes. The favorable low-level wind fields in place suggests strong to intense tornadoes are possible. The areas of greatest concern for this activity will be storms forming near the triple point and moving northeast along the quasi-stationary/warm front. There is also potential for a supercell or two to develop along the modifying outflow boundary. A longer-track tornado is certainly possible if storms can maintain a discrete mode. With time, however, there is the expectation for upscale growth into an MCS where severe winds would become a greater concern. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37509764 37559817 37919865 38349881 38689867 39609784 39769764 40089644 40299547 40079515 39459540 38189641 37509764 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN Read more

WW 0221 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0221 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Morning Update... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions expected across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening*** ...Southern High Plains... No changes were made to the fire weather risk areas. Despite good overnight humidity recoveries across much of the southern Plains, a volatile fire environment is expected to evolve this afternoon as a combination of very strong southwest winds of 25-35 mph (gusts exceeding 40 mph) and critically low RH overlap a region of profoundly dry fuels and active fires. Current surface observations depict a cold front draped across the northern TX Panhandle with weak northerly winds trailing behind, and a dryline slowly pushing east across the Caprock. The cold front is expected to gradually lift northward into southwest KS this afternoon as southerly winds increase and spread over the southern Plains. Uncertainty exists in how far north the front will lift, with some guidance portraying it lifting to the southwest KS/OK state line and stalling for a few hours. However, with numerous active fires and any new ignitions this afternoon, a drastic wind shift from southwesterly to northerly as the aforementioned front sweeps through the southern Plains this evening could further exacerbate the fire environment and any control efforts. The cold front is expected to progress southward after 00z, with strong northerly winds of 20-30 mph (gusts up to 40 mph) immediately following the front, and breezy conditions persisting overnight. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026/ ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions expected across parts of the southern High Plains*** ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject over the Plains, resulting in surface cyclone deepening over southwest Kansas, which will promote widespread, dangerously dry and windy conditions across parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains today. A dryline will sharpen across southwestern Kansas into far western Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon, with a very dry boundary layer mixing up to 500 mb in the post-dryline environment. Given strong downward mixing, as well as surface gradient flow with the deepening cyclone, widespread 20-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 5-15 percent RH is expected. These conditions are likely for several hours across much of New Mexico, to southwestern Kansas and points in between, necessitating the maintenance of Critical highlights. Extremely Critical highlights remain in place where confidence is highest in sustained surface winds exceeding 30 mph amid single-digit RH, and where the ERCs of fuel-loaded grasses exceed the 95th percentile. Guidance consensus suggests that this volatile overlap of favorable meteorological conditions and fuels will occur over extreme eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and southwestern Kansas, immediately behind the dryline. The combination of the very strong surface winds/RH, critically dry fuels, and exacerbation of potential holdover fires will all support wildfire spread at a life-threateningly fast pace. The danger to the fire spread may be compounded later in the evening and early overnight hours, when the surface cold front sweeps into the region, resulting in a dramatic shift of the surface winds from westerly to northerly, pivoting any ongoing fire fronts accordingly. ...Sacramento Valley in California... A mid-level north-northwesterly wind maximum will overspread northern California during the afternoon hours, when a dry boundary layer is poised to mix up to the 700-500 mb layer. Such conditions will encourage enough downward mixing, in tandem with downslope flow, to support Elevated wildfire-spread conditions in the Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Sustained northerly surface winds in the 15-20 mph range coinciding with 15-20 percent RH will overlap with receptive fuels for at least a few hours, warranting fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Morning Update... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions expected across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening*** ...Southern High Plains... No changes were made to the fire weather risk areas. Despite good overnight humidity recoveries across much of the southern Plains, a volatile fire environment is expected to evolve this afternoon as a combination of very strong southwest winds of 25-35 mph (gusts exceeding 40 mph) and critically low RH overlap a region of profoundly dry fuels and active fires. Current surface observations depict a cold front draped across the northern TX Panhandle with weak northerly winds trailing behind, and a dryline slowly pushing east across the Caprock. The cold front is expected to gradually lift northward into southwest KS this afternoon as southerly winds increase and spread over the southern Plains. Uncertainty exists in how far north the front will lift, with some guidance portraying it lifting to the southwest KS/OK state line and stalling for a few hours. However, with numerous active fires and any new ignitions this afternoon, a drastic wind shift from southwesterly to northerly as the aforementioned front sweeps through the southern Plains this evening could further exacerbate the fire environment and any control efforts. The cold front is expected to progress southward after 00z, with strong northerly winds of 20-30 mph (gusts up to 40 mph) immediately following the front, and breezy conditions persisting overnight. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026/ ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions expected across parts of the southern High Plains*** ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject over the Plains, resulting in surface cyclone deepening over southwest Kansas, which will promote widespread, dangerously dry and windy conditions across parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains today. A dryline will sharpen across southwestern Kansas into far western Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon, with a very dry boundary layer mixing up to 500 mb in the post-dryline environment. Given strong downward mixing, as well as surface gradient flow with the deepening cyclone, widespread 20-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 5-15 percent RH is expected. These conditions are likely for several hours across much of New Mexico, to southwestern Kansas and points in between, necessitating the maintenance of Critical highlights. Extremely Critical highlights remain in place where confidence is highest in sustained surface winds exceeding 30 mph amid single-digit RH, and where the ERCs of fuel-loaded grasses exceed the 95th percentile. Guidance consensus suggests that this volatile overlap of favorable meteorological conditions and fuels will occur over extreme eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and southwestern Kansas, immediately behind the dryline. The combination of the very strong surface winds/RH, critically dry fuels, and exacerbation of potential holdover fires will all support wildfire spread at a life-threateningly fast pace. The danger to the fire spread may be compounded later in the evening and early overnight hours, when the surface cold front sweeps into the region, resulting in a dramatic shift of the surface winds from westerly to northerly, pivoting any ongoing fire fronts accordingly. ...Sacramento Valley in California... A mid-level north-northwesterly wind maximum will overspread northern California during the afternoon hours, when a dry boundary layer is poised to mix up to the 700-500 mb layer. Such conditions will encourage enough downward mixing, in tandem with downslope flow, to support Elevated wildfire-spread conditions in the Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Sustained northerly surface winds in the 15-20 mph range coinciding with 15-20 percent RH will overlap with receptive fuels for at least a few hours, warranting fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Morning Update... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions expected across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening*** ...Southern High Plains... No changes were made to the fire weather risk areas. Despite good overnight humidity recoveries across much of the southern Plains, a volatile fire environment is expected to evolve this afternoon as a combination of very strong southwest winds of 25-35 mph (gusts exceeding 40 mph) and critically low RH overlap a region of profoundly dry fuels and active fires. Current surface observations depict a cold front draped across the northern TX Panhandle with weak northerly winds trailing behind, and a dryline slowly pushing east across the Caprock. The cold front is expected to gradually lift northward into southwest KS this afternoon as southerly winds increase and spread over the southern Plains. Uncertainty exists in how far north the front will lift, with some guidance portraying it lifting to the southwest KS/OK state line and stalling for a few hours. However, with numerous active fires and any new ignitions this afternoon, a drastic wind shift from southwesterly to northerly as the aforementioned front sweeps through the southern Plains this evening could further exacerbate the fire environment and any control efforts. The cold front is expected to progress southward after 00z, with strong northerly winds of 20-30 mph (gusts up to 40 mph) immediately following the front, and breezy conditions persisting overnight. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026/ ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions expected across parts of the southern High Plains*** ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject over the Plains, resulting in surface cyclone deepening over southwest Kansas, which will promote widespread, dangerously dry and windy conditions across parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains today. A dryline will sharpen across southwestern Kansas into far western Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon, with a very dry boundary layer mixing up to 500 mb in the post-dryline environment. Given strong downward mixing, as well as surface gradient flow with the deepening cyclone, widespread 20-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 5-15 percent RH is expected. These conditions are likely for several hours across much of New Mexico, to southwestern Kansas and points in between, necessitating the maintenance of Critical highlights. Extremely Critical highlights remain in place where confidence is highest in sustained surface winds exceeding 30 mph amid single-digit RH, and where the ERCs of fuel-loaded grasses exceed the 95th percentile. Guidance consensus suggests that this volatile overlap of favorable meteorological conditions and fuels will occur over extreme eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and southwestern Kansas, immediately behind the dryline. The combination of the very strong surface winds/RH, critically dry fuels, and exacerbation of potential holdover fires will all support wildfire spread at a life-threateningly fast pace. The danger to the fire spread may be compounded later in the evening and early overnight hours, when the surface cold front sweeps into the region, resulting in a dramatic shift of the surface winds from westerly to northerly, pivoting any ongoing fire fronts accordingly. ...Sacramento Valley in California... A mid-level north-northwesterly wind maximum will overspread northern California during the afternoon hours, when a dry boundary layer is poised to mix up to the 700-500 mb layer. Such conditions will encourage enough downward mixing, in tandem with downslope flow, to support Elevated wildfire-spread conditions in the Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Sustained northerly surface winds in the 15-20 mph range coinciding with 15-20 percent RH will overlap with receptive fuels for at least a few hours, warranting fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and multiple strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri. ...Central Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a potent shortwave trough rotating across the central Rockies into western KS. The primary surface boundary extends from western IA into central KS, with a pronounced outflow boundary associated with overnight convection extending from southeast KS into southern MO. The outflow boundary will lift northward today, allowing a very moist and extremely unstable air mass to spread into eastern KS/northwest MO/extreme southeast NE/southwest IA. This is the area most concerning for intense supercells later today. Initial storms are expected to develop by early afternoon near the triple point of the retreating outflow boundary and cold front. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon and early evening in a strongly sheared environment favorable for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. It remains unclear how stormscale interactions will impact discrete supercell mode, but strong tornadoes are a concern in this region. Farther southwest, thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the cold front across south-central KS by late afternoon. Recent CAM solutions suggest these storms may be affected by the linear frontal forcing, and may be slightly anafrontal. This would lessen the tornado risk, but very large hail and damaging winds would remain a concern. No changes have been made to the Moderate Risk area due to conflicting model signals. ...Western OK/Northwest TX... Full sunshine will lead to hot temperatures along the dryline over western OK into northwest TX. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in this area, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Weak large scale forcing may limit storm duration and intensity. ...OH Valley/Great Lakes... A line of thunderstorms along the IL/IN border is tracking northeastward into a warm/moist air mass. Relatively strong low-level wind fields and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a continued risk of scattered wind damage with the strongest storms as they track across parts of IN/Lower MI/Northwest OH. ..Hart/Halbert.. 05/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and multiple strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri. ...Central Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a potent shortwave trough rotating across the central Rockies into western KS. The primary surface boundary extends from western IA into central KS, with a pronounced outflow boundary associated with overnight convection extending from southeast KS into southern MO. The outflow boundary will lift northward today, allowing a very moist and extremely unstable air mass to spread into eastern KS/northwest MO/extreme southeast NE/southwest IA. This is the area most concerning for intense supercells later today. Initial storms are expected to develop by early afternoon near the triple point of the retreating outflow boundary and cold front. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon and early evening in a strongly sheared environment favorable for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. It remains unclear how stormscale interactions will impact discrete supercell mode, but strong tornadoes are a concern in this region. Farther southwest, thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the cold front across south-central KS by late afternoon. Recent CAM solutions suggest these storms may be affected by the linear frontal forcing, and may be slightly anafrontal. This would lessen the tornado risk, but very large hail and damaging winds would remain a concern. No changes have been made to the Moderate Risk area due to conflicting model signals. ...Western OK/Northwest TX... Full sunshine will lead to hot temperatures along the dryline over western OK into northwest TX. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in this area, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Weak large scale forcing may limit storm duration and intensity. ...OH Valley/Great Lakes... A line of thunderstorms along the IL/IN border is tracking northeastward into a warm/moist air mass. Relatively strong low-level wind fields and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a continued risk of scattered wind damage with the strongest storms as they track across parts of IN/Lower MI/Northwest OH. ..Hart/Halbert.. 05/18/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and multiple strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri. ...Central Plains... Morning water vapor loop shows a potent shortwave trough rotating across the central Rockies into western KS. The primary surface boundary extends from western IA into central KS, with a pronounced outflow boundary associated with overnight convection extending from southeast KS into southern MO. The outflow boundary will lift northward today, allowing a very moist and extremely unstable air mass to spread into eastern KS/northwest MO/extreme southeast NE/southwest IA. This is the area most concerning for intense supercells later today. Initial storms are expected to develop by early afternoon near the triple point of the retreating outflow boundary and cold front. These storms will track northeastward through the afternoon and early evening in a strongly sheared environment favorable for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. It remains unclear how stormscale interactions will impact discrete supercell mode, but strong tornadoes are a concern in this region. Farther southwest, thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the cold front across south-central KS by late afternoon. Recent CAM solutions suggest these storms may be affected by the linear frontal forcing, and may be slightly anafrontal. This would lessen the tornado risk, but very large hail and damaging winds would remain a concern. No changes have been made to the Moderate Risk area due to conflicting model signals. ...Western OK/Northwest TX... Full sunshine will lead to hot temperatures along the dryline over western OK into northwest TX. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form in this area, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Weak large scale forcing may limit storm duration and intensity. ...OH Valley/Great Lakes... A line of thunderstorms along the IL/IN border is tracking northeastward into a warm/moist air mass. Relatively strong low-level wind fields and steep low-level lapse rates suggest a continued risk of scattered wind damage with the strongest storms as they track across parts of IN/Lower MI/Northwest OH. ..Hart/Halbert.. 05/18/2026 Read more

WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N SLO TO 30 NNE SLO TO 25 SE CMI TO 25 NW DNV TO 45 ESE MMO TO 40 W VPZ TO 45 ESE RFD. ..HALBERT..05/18/26 ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IWX...IND...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC023-025-029-031-033-035-043-045-049-075-079-091-101-159-183- 197-181740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CLAY COLES COOK CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DUPAGE EDGAR EFFINGHAM IROQUOIS JASPER KANKAKEE LAWRENCE RICHLAND VERMILION WILL INC001-003-007-009-011-015-017-021-023-033-035-039-045-049-053- 057-059-063-065-067-069-073-075-081-085-087-089-091-095-097-099- 103-107-109-111-113-119-121-127-131-133-135-141-145-149-151-153- 157-159-165-167-169-171-179-181-183-181740- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BENTON BLACKFORD BOONE CARROLL Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 18 15:46:07 UTC 2026.