Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A combination of dry thunderstorms and dry/windy conditions will pose fire weather concerns for portions of the Four Corners and northern Great Basin for today. Early-morning water-vapor imagery continues to show an upper ridge over the Four Corners region with an embedded shortwave trough evident across the northern Great Basin. This feature will promote not only thunderstorm chances across much of the Great Basin, but should also result in dry/windy conditions across parts of NV, UT, and AZ. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The 00 UTC MFR RAOB sampled a PWAT value of 0.96 inches, which is higher than previously anticipated by model guidance. Consequently, MRMS QPE and surface stations have reported pockets of wetting rainfall up to 0.25 inches associated with thunderstorms across southern OR late Sunday evening/early Monday morning. Regional soundings further east into the Four Corners region sampled a drier air mass (especially within the boundary layer), but GOES PWAT imagery suggests higher-quality moisture is advecting northward into western NV ahead of the upper-level disturbance. This will likely favor wet thunderstorms across northern CA into southern OR where most guidance shows a consistent signal for wetting rainfall, which warranted removal from the dry thunderstorm risk area. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the CA/OR/NV tri-state region should transition to predominantly dry thunderstorms with southeastward extent towards the Four Corners region on the fringe of the mid-level moisture plume. In general, fuels remain very dry across the broader region and should support lightning ignitions outside of where heavier precipitation cores have occurred (mainly over northern NV/southern OR) over the past 12-24 hours. ...Eastern Nevada into Utah and Arizona... Modest surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin through the afternoon will result in increasing southerly winds across southeast NV into adjacent portions of UT and AZ. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably strong probabilities for sustained winds near 15 mph with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph. Relative humidity values should fall to near 15% as temperatures climb into the 90s, resulting in areas of elevated fire weather conditions. While confidence in elevated conditions is greatest across southeast NV into southwest UT, more aggressive solutions suggests elevated conditions may extend into eastern UT. ..Moore.. 07/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, which may evolve into an organized cluster with increasing potential to produce severe wind gusts by late Tuesday evening, are possible across parts of central and eastern South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota. Other thunderstorm clusters may form to the east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and southwest of the Ark-La-Tex vicinity and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts late Tuesday afternoon or evening. ...Discussion... It still appears that the westerlies may become a bit less progressive across the higher latitudes of North America by Tuesday. As a mid/upper high evolves in the northwestern Canadian Arctic latitudes, a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone may only slowly migrate east-northeastward across Hudson Bay, toward the northern Quebec shores, while a notable upstream trough slowly pivots inland of the British Columbia coast. In advance of the trailing perturbation, low-amplitude troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations within the modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S., is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies. As it does, models suggest that it will gradually flatten initial mid-level ridging across the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night. Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along an axis from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the central and southern Great Plains, while also developing northwestward from the subtropical western Atlantic into parts of the southeast. It appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across the southern New England and northern Mid Atlantic coast, leaving a remnant shear axis between the ridging, roughly from the Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains, with perhaps a well-defined, quasi-stationary circulation along it across the Mid South vicinity. ...Parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, associated with a plume of elevated mixed-layer air slowly becoming suppressed southward across the middle Missouri Valley, it still appears that stronger boundary-layer heating may contribute to moderate to strong destabilization by late Tuesday afternoon. Guidance suggests that this will focus in a corridor along/south of a stalling surface cold front trailing the Hudson Bay cyclone, along which surface dew points increasing to near 70F may contribute to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Although timing of stronger thunderstorm initiation remains uncertain, this probably will be aided by forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level perturbations. Once this occurs, deep-layer shear appears likely to become at least marginally supportive of supercell structures. Particularly by late Tuesday evening, near the nose of a nocturnally strengthening boundary-layer jet across central into eastern South Dakota, the evolution of an upscale growing and organizing cluster appears possible, accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts as it propagates eastward. ...Mid Atlantic... Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance are similar with highest probabilities for thunderstorms becoming concentrated along and east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon. Although embedded within deep-layer westerly mean flow on the order of 20 kt or less, thermodynamic profiles with high precipitable water content and modest CAPE may support locally strong downbursts in stronger storms. There does appear at least some potential for weak low-level warm advection to provide support for an upscale growing cluster propagating southeastward toward coastal areas by Tuesday evening, with continuing risk for potentially damaging winds along a consolidating gust front. ...Northeast Texas into northern Louisiana... Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance currently focus higher thunderstorm probabilities by late Tuesday afternoon across the region, near the southwestern periphery of the broad, weak mid-level cyclonic circulation. Aided by inflow of moderate potential instability, within a corridor of stronger daytime heating, some clustering of storms appears possible, accompanied by potential for a few strong downbursts. ..Kerr.. 07/06/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, which may evolve into an organized cluster with increasing potential to produce severe wind gusts by late Tuesday evening, are possible across parts of central and eastern South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota. Other thunderstorm clusters may form to the east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and southwest of the Ark-La-Tex vicinity and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts late Tuesday afternoon or evening. ...Discussion... It still appears that the westerlies may become a bit less progressive across the higher latitudes of North America by Tuesday. As a mid/upper high evolves in the northwestern Canadian Arctic latitudes, a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone may only slowly migrate east-northeastward across Hudson Bay, toward the northern Quebec shores, while a notable upstream trough slowly pivots inland of the British Columbia coast. In advance of the trailing perturbation, low-amplitude troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations within the modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S., is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies. As it does, models suggest that it will gradually flatten initial mid-level ridging across the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night. Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along an axis from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the central and southern Great Plains, while also developing northwestward from the subtropical western Atlantic into parts of the southeast. It appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across the southern New England and northern Mid Atlantic coast, leaving a remnant shear axis between the ridging, roughly from the Ohio Valley into southeastern Great Plains, with perhaps a well-defined, quasi-stationary circulation along it across the Mid South vicinity. ...Parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest... Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, associated with a plume of elevated mixed-layer air slowly becoming suppressed southward across the middle Missouri Valley, it still appears that stronger boundary-layer heating may contribute to moderate to strong destabilization by late Tuesday afternoon. Guidance suggests that this will focus in a corridor along/south of a stalling surface cold front trailing the Hudson Bay cyclone, along which surface dew points increasing to near 70F may contribute to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Although timing of stronger thunderstorm initiation remains uncertain, this probably will be aided by forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level perturbations. Once this occurs, deep-layer shear appears likely to become at least marginally supportive of supercell structures. Particularly by late Tuesday evening, near the nose of a nocturnally strengthening boundary-layer jet across central into eastern South Dakota, the evolution of an upscale growing and organizing cluster appears possible, accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts as it propagates eastward. ...Mid Atlantic... Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance are similar with highest probabilities for thunderstorms becoming concentrated along and east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon. Although embedded within deep-layer westerly mean flow on the order of 20 kt or less, thermodynamic profiles with high precipitable water content and modest CAPE may support locally strong downbursts in stronger storms. There does appear at least some potential for weak low-level warm advection to provide support for an upscale growing cluster propagating southeastward toward coastal areas by Tuesday evening, with continuing risk for potentially damaging winds along a consolidating gust front. ...Northeast Texas into northern Louisiana... Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance currently focus higher thunderstorm probabilities by late Tuesday afternoon across the region, near the southwestern periphery of the broad, weak mid-level cyclonic circulation. Aided by inflow of moderate potential instability, within a corridor of stronger daytime heating, some clustering of storms appears possible, accompanied by potential for a few strong downbursts. ..Kerr.. 07/06/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A vigorous short-wave trough and associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet streak will progress from southern Saskatchewan into northwest Ontario with the southern fringe of modest height falls and stronger mid-level flow situated along the international border. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum will move through AR within the base of a mid-level trough over the lower MS Valley, while a separate short-wave trough advances through OR into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Canadian disturbance will move south into the Dakotas and upper MS Valley, while a backdoor-type cold front pushes south through parts of the Mid-Atlantic. A lee trough will extend south from the front through central VA into the Carolinas with some model signal for surface low development along the trough over central VA. ...Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska... Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s will coincide with the northeast extension of an EML plume to yield moderate to strong instability Monday afternoon ahead of the cold front with MLCAPE of 2500-3500+ J/kg. The modest height falls aloft will combine with frontal convergence to yield widely scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon in the Red River Valley. Subsequent storm development is possible along the front as far south as northwest or north-central NE by late afternoon or early evening. The strongest deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt is forecast across the Red River Valley with a vector orientation that is largely perpendicular to the surface front. As such, supercells appear possible initially with the primary hazard being large hail potentially in excess of two inches. Effective SRH of generally less than 100-150 m2/s2 is forecast into late afternoon, during the period of more discrete storm modes, which may tend to limit a more robust tornado threat. 00Z CAM guidance is in relatively good agreement in depicting the upscale growth of storms into a linear system by evening over eastern SD and western MN with an associated risk for severe wind gusts. Weaker vertical shear with southward extent from central SD into northern NE is expected to limit the potential for organized storm modes, though isolated occurrences of hail and severe wind gusts appear possible with the strongest storms. ...Northeast Idaho through southern Montana and northern Wyoming... The short-wave trough moving into the northern Rockies will be attended by a belt of 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb, which will enhance vertical shear across the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon from the Bitterroot to Big Horn Mountains amidst a steep lapse rate and at least modestly unstable environment. There is some model signal that an MCS could evolve over northeast WY Monday evening. Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist to support at least episodic supercell and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. The expected areal coverage of the severe weather threat currently precludes higher wind and hail probabilities. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of the lee trough and surface low Monday afternoon with MLCAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, as will vertical shear. Nonetheless, convergence along the lee trough and backdoor front is expected to foster scattered thunderstorms by early to mid afternoon with the potential for upscale growth into loosely organized clusters by late afternoon into evening. The presence of steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential with a risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. An upgrade to a level 2/Slight Risk is possible in later outlooks if a preferred corridor of damaging wind potential becomes apparent in future model data. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Forcing for ascent preceding the vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis is expected to focus scattered afternoon thunderstorms from AR into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys. Vertical shear will remain relatively weak; however, the presence of a moist and moderately to strongly unstable air mass (i.e., MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg) will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ..Mead/Moore.. 07/06/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota Monday afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A vigorous short-wave trough and associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet streak will progress from southern Saskatchewan into northwest Ontario with the southern fringe of modest height falls and stronger mid-level flow situated along the international border. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum will move through AR within the base of a mid-level trough over the lower MS Valley, while a separate short-wave trough advances through OR into the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Canadian disturbance will move south into the Dakotas and upper MS Valley, while a backdoor-type cold front pushes south through parts of the Mid-Atlantic. A lee trough will extend south from the front through central VA into the Carolinas with some model signal for surface low development along the trough over central VA. ...Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska... Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s will coincide with the northeast extension of an EML plume to yield moderate to strong instability Monday afternoon ahead of the cold front with MLCAPE of 2500-3500+ J/kg. The modest height falls aloft will combine with frontal convergence to yield widely scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon in the Red River Valley. Subsequent storm development is possible along the front as far south as northwest or north-central NE by late afternoon or early evening. The strongest deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt is forecast across the Red River Valley with a vector orientation that is largely perpendicular to the surface front. As such, supercells appear possible initially with the primary hazard being large hail potentially in excess of two inches. Effective SRH of generally less than 100-150 m2/s2 is forecast into late afternoon, during the period of more discrete storm modes, which may tend to limit a more robust tornado threat. 00Z CAM guidance is in relatively good agreement in depicting the upscale growth of storms into a linear system by evening over eastern SD and western MN with an associated risk for severe wind gusts. Weaker vertical shear with southward extent from central SD into northern NE is expected to limit the potential for organized storm modes, though isolated occurrences of hail and severe wind gusts appear possible with the strongest storms. ...Northeast Idaho through southern Montana and northern Wyoming... The short-wave trough moving into the northern Rockies will be attended by a belt of 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb, which will enhance vertical shear across the region. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon from the Bitterroot to Big Horn Mountains amidst a steep lapse rate and at least modestly unstable environment. There is some model signal that an MCS could evolve over northeast WY Monday evening. Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist to support at least episodic supercell and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. The expected areal coverage of the severe weather threat currently precludes higher wind and hail probabilities. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of the lee trough and surface low Monday afternoon with MLCAPE as high as 2000-3000 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, as will vertical shear. Nonetheless, convergence along the lee trough and backdoor front is expected to foster scattered thunderstorms by early to mid afternoon with the potential for upscale growth into loosely organized clusters by late afternoon into evening. The presence of steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential with a risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. An upgrade to a level 2/Slight Risk is possible in later outlooks if a preferred corridor of damaging wind potential becomes apparent in future model data. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Forcing for ascent preceding the vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis is expected to focus scattered afternoon thunderstorms from AR into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys. Vertical shear will remain relatively weak; however, the presence of a moist and moderately to strongly unstable air mass (i.e., MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg) will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ..Mead/Moore.. 07/06/2026 Read more

MD 1519 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0810 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Areas affected...Central to northeast Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060110Z - 060315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...High-based storms ongoing across central Montana may see some uptick in intensity over the next few hours as they approach a regional buoyancy maximum. However, the onset of nocturnal cooling and antecedent inhibition downstream cast uncertainty on this scenario. DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, high-based convection across central/south-central MT has experienced an uptick in lightning counts indicative of a slight strengthening trend. This may be attributable to storms moving into the western periphery of a more buoyant air mass where dewpoints are in the low 50s, increasing into the low 60s into northeast MT on the western side of a weak cold front. Based on mesoanalysis estimates and 00 UTC GGW and BIS RAOBs, this moisture is supporting MLCAPE values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg within a relatively narrow corridor. It appears possible that further intensification could occur as convection migrates further into this air mass. Effective bulk shear values should increase to around 40-45 knots as buoyancy profiles and convection deepen, resulting in increased organization and an uptick in severe wind potential. However, analyses also depict increasing MLCIN immediately downstream of the ongoing convection, which should increase further with the coming onset of nocturnal cooling. Recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged ensemble guidance hints at this potential, but has been too aggressive with wind forecasts so far across this region and only gives a 30-50% chance for severe gusts through early morning. This limits confidence in this scenario; watch issuance seems improbable at this time. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 45840729 45720762 45750777 46000792 46530814 46720837 46830880 46910918 47090961 47340992 47620974 47820922 47900815 48160667 48740516 48710475 48550441 48250412 47900409 47450407 46670411 46160442 45840729 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1520 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464... FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1520 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Areas affected...Western North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464... Valid 060238Z - 060415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe hail and wind gusts will persist through 04 UTC, but the overall threat should steadily diminish with time. DISCUSSION...Convection has struggled to maintain intensity over the past couple of hours across western ND, and continuous convective overturning has been gradually eroding MLCAPE based on mesoanalysis estimates. Despite this, a few stronger updrafts continue to briefly intensify to severe limits based on MRMS MESH estimates. Additionally, at least isolated severe wind gusts have been observed with some of the collapsing convection. Richer low-level moisture along and north of Highway 23 has maintained some degree of buoyancy, which may continue to allow occasional/isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over the next couple of hours. However, continued overturning and nocturnal stabilization should further diminish buoyancy and steadily reduce the potential for severe convection. Temporal extension of WW 464 beyond the scheduled 04 UTC expiration will likely not be needed. ..Moore.. 07/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 47440325 48420210 48740160 48810105 48720067 48380032 48110029 46880185 46780251 46860295 47150327 47440325 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE NHK TO 15 E BWI TO 35 NNW ILG TO 25 E ABE. ..MOORE..07/06/26 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-060340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-029-035-041-060340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-033-060340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER SALEM Read more

WW 465 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA WV CW 052245Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 465 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland Southern New Jersey South-Central and Southeast Pennsylvania Northern Virginia The Far Eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 645 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Loosely organized clusters and cells should pose some threat for scattered damaging winds this evening as they spread generally eastward. Occasional strong to severe gusts may reach up to 55-65 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Harrisburg PA to 30 miles south of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 463...WW 464... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW SDY TO 40 ESE ISN TO 70 NNW MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520 ..MOORE..07/06/26 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-007-009-011-025-033-041-049-053-055-057-061-065-075-087- 089-101-060340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MOUNTRAIL OLIVER RENVILLE SLOPE STARK WARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 464 SEVERE TSTM ND 052030Z - 060400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 464 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western North Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify across western North Dakota this afternoon, with a few severe storms possible. Large hail and damaging winds are the main concerns, although an isolated tornado is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles southwest of Garrison ND to 55 miles north northwest of Minot ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 463... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ABI TO 35 WNW SEP TO 45 S SEP. WW 463 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 060300Z. ..THOMPSON..07/06/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...LUB...SJT...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-081-083-093-095-193-235-399-431-451-060300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO HAMILTON IRION RUNNELS STERLING TOM GREEN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic and west-central Texas through the remainder of the evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota and Montana. ...West-Central Texas... A forward-propagating MCS has evolved this evening across the TX Big Country into the Low Rolling Plains with gusts of 62 and 75 mph reported with the system over the past hour. The inflow air mass remains hot and relatively moist with latest objective analysis indicating MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. The KFDR VWP indicates a belt of 30-40 kt northerly winds in the 4-6 km AGL layer, which is likely enhancing vertical shear. This, when coupled with the presence of a relatively deep and well-mixed PBL, will continue to support severe wind gusts and sporadic hail occurrences for the next few hours as the MCS continues south into the Concho Valley. For additional near-term details, see MCD 1517. ...Mid-Atlantic... Earlier, more discrete storms have gradually evolved into a larger-scale complex over southeast PA with that system tracking east along a subtle boundary that extends into central NJ. Additional storm clustering is noted farther south, near Baltimore, with latest model guidance suggesting additional consolidation of storms over the next hour or two across the Delmarva into the DE River Valley. The 00Z IAD sampled a moist and moderately unstable air mass, which featured steep lapse rates in the lowest 1-1.5 km AGL. While vertical shear is relatively weak, the steep lapse rates will support episodic cold-pool organization with an attendant risk for damaging winds for the next 1-3 hours. For additional near-term information, see MCD 1518. ...Montana and North Dakota... Mesoanalysis places a surface front from western ND into south-central MT, with steep lapse rates and locally higher boundary-layer moisture contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong instability in the vicinity of the boundary over northwest ND into northeast MT. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening to the east of the boundary in western ND amidst a warmer and slightly drier boundary layer as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding. The development of a nocturnal low-level jet may support some moistening late this evening into tonight; however, increasing convective inhibition may become more prohibitive to surface-based storm sustenance upon nightfall. Nonetheless, isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible with the ongoing storms for the next 1-3 hours. Farther west, a separate thunderstorm regime is ongoing to the north of the surface front in central MT. The short-term models suggest a few of those storms could persist through the remainder of the evening with isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts possible. ..Mead.. 07/06/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic and west-central Texas through the remainder of the evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota and Montana. ...West-Central Texas... A forward-propagating MCS has evolved this evening across the TX Big Country into the Low Rolling Plains with gusts of 62 and 75 mph reported with the system over the past hour. The inflow air mass remains hot and relatively moist with latest objective analysis indicating MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. The KFDR VWP indicates a belt of 30-40 kt northerly winds in the 4-6 km AGL layer, which is likely enhancing vertical shear. This, when coupled with the presence of a relatively deep and well-mixed PBL, will continue to support severe wind gusts and sporadic hail occurrences for the next few hours as the MCS continues south into the Concho Valley. For additional near-term details, see MCD 1517. ...Mid-Atlantic... Earlier, more discrete storms have gradually evolved into a larger-scale complex over southeast PA with that system tracking east along a subtle boundary that extends into central NJ. Additional storm clustering is noted farther south, near Baltimore, with latest model guidance suggesting additional consolidation of storms over the next hour or two across the Delmarva into the DE River Valley. The 00Z IAD sampled a moist and moderately unstable air mass, which featured steep lapse rates in the lowest 1-1.5 km AGL. While vertical shear is relatively weak, the steep lapse rates will support episodic cold-pool organization with an attendant risk for damaging winds for the next 1-3 hours. For additional near-term information, see MCD 1518. ...Montana and North Dakota... Mesoanalysis places a surface front from western ND into south-central MT, with steep lapse rates and locally higher boundary-layer moisture contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong instability in the vicinity of the boundary over northwest ND into northeast MT. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening to the east of the boundary in western ND amidst a warmer and slightly drier boundary layer as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding. The development of a nocturnal low-level jet may support some moistening late this evening into tonight; however, increasing convective inhibition may become more prohibitive to surface-based storm sustenance upon nightfall. Nonetheless, isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible with the ongoing storms for the next 1-3 hours. Farther west, a separate thunderstorm regime is ongoing to the north of the surface front in central MT. The short-term models suggest a few of those storms could persist through the remainder of the evening with isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts possible. ..Mead.. 07/06/2026 Read more

MD 1516 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464... FOR WESTERN TO NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0620 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Areas affected...Western to north-central North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464... Valid 052320Z - 060115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are gradually intensifying across western North Dakota and should begin to pose a severe hail/wind risk for the next several hours. A persistent supercell along the international border may also pose a more isolated severe risk through late evening. DISCUSSION...MRMS imagery and lightning counts depict gradual intensification of thunderstorms along a surface trough across western ND. Based on vertically integrated ice and MESH data, some of the deeper cores are becoming sufficiently intense to pose a severe hail risk, and the early stages of mid-level rotation are noted in KBIS velocity imagery. These signs all suggest that the potential for severe hail is gradually increasing, and will likely persist for the next few hours downstream. Based on latest RAP mesoanalyses, the best potential for significant (2 inch) hail remains along and north of the Highway 23 corridor where slightly richer low-level moisture will likely support deeper/more robust updrafts capable of realizing the strong vertical shear over the region. Further south, more dry and deeply-mixed low-level profiles may favor a slightly greater severe wind threat. Further east, and north of the international border, an isolated supercell has demonstrated significant deviant motion at times to the southeast. While deviant motion has waned in the past 30 minutes (coincident with decreasing lightning counts and a slight weakening trend), the cell continues to move across a buoyant and moderately sheared environment that may support further southward propagation. If this occurs, an isolated hail threat will likely materialize along the ND side of the border, but should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. ..Moore.. 07/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46010280 45930287 45770323 45730364 45800408 46070419 46720405 47950332 48510283 48910231 49030166 49059838 48899811 48679817 48549838 48539882 48509962 48470051 48310109 47760145 47310181 46590233 46010280 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1517 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463... FOR THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY
Mesoscale Discussion 1517 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Areas affected...The Texas Big Country Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463... Valid 060016Z - 060145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463 continues. SUMMARY...Occasional strong-severe gusts will be possible through about 02-03z. Southward extension of WW 463 may need to be considered, but a new watch is not likely. DISCUSSION...Storm clusters continue to spread south-southwestward on convective outflow, into a remaining hot air mass with moderate buoyancy and very steep low-level lapse rates. The storms will spread south of the current watch counties, with some southward expansion possible. However, the storms will begin to move south of the somewhat richer moisture/larger buoyancy and should begin to weaken around 02-03z. Thereafter, while gusty outflow winds will be possible, the weakening convection will result in weakening of the cold pool and associated severe-gust threat. ..Thompson.. 07/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 32560082 32470024 32519963 32629882 32469863 32049864 31649892 31509964 31440021 31520078 31710146 32080172 32390187 32720186 32840168 32840132 32560082 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1518 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465... FOR SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO WESTERN NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Pennsylvania into western New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465... Valid 060020Z - 060215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms organizing across southeast Pennsylvania will likely pose a relatively higher damaging wind threat downstream into west-central New Jersey over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest reflectivity imagery from KDIX and KCCX shows steady clustering of convection between Harrisburg and Lancaster, PA. Although no coherent cold pool is yet evident in velocity data, the general trend favors the development of a more cohesive cold pool over the next hour. Once this occurs, cold-pool-driven propagation should become more pronounced with an attendant uptick in strong/severe winds. Downstream, a pocket of around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE likely persists across southeast PA into west-central NJ where temperatures remain in the low 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. However, the approaching onset of nocturnal cooling will likely begin to diminish low-level lapse rates and increase near-surface inhibition, which will act as modulating factors to overall wind magnitudes. Given these considerations, the expectation over the next 1-3 hours is that this cluster will feature some degree of loose organization with an increasing threat for damaging winds within a focused corridor downstream, though wind speeds will most likely only reach into the 45-60 mph range. ..Moore.. 07/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39737712 39977680 40397667 40567646 40427493 40217483 39977478 39747482 39557494 39437520 39417549 39527674 39577702 39737712 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W MRB TO 5 N UNV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1518 ..MOORE..07/06/26 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-060140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-060140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-041- 043-510-060140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GDV TO 20 SE SDY TO 85 NNE ISN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516 ..MOORE..07/06/26 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-007-009-011-013-025-033-041-049-053-055-057-061-065-075- 087-089-101-060140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BOWMAN BURKE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MOUNTRAIL OLIVER RENVILLE SLOPE STARK WARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE HOB TO 75 NW ABI TO 35 N ABI TO 35 WNW MWL TO 35 W ACT. ..THOMPSON..07/06/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...LUB...SJT...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC059-093-133-143-151-169-193-207-253-263-305-353-363-417-429- 433-441-445-447-501-503-060140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLAHAN COMANCHE EASTLAND ERATH FISHER GARZA HAMILTON HASKELL JONES KENT LYNN NOLAN PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STONEWALL TAYLOR TERRY THROCKMORTON YOAKUM YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more