Storm Prediction Center

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday. For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday. For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday. For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... The western US trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D4/Wednesday with strengthening westerly flow overspreading the southwestern US. The axis of the central US ridge will shift eastward, with heights continuing to rise across portions of the central/northern Plains. A few stronger storms may be possible across portions of central/eastern Montana. Overall, confidence is low in any areas of organized severe potential. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Southern/Central Plains to the southeastern US. Generally weak flow should keep organized severe potential low. The exception may be across far western Texas where modest mid-level flow will continue, though large scale forcing for ascent will decrease from D3/Tuesday. For the D5/Thursday through D6/Friday period, ensemble guidance suggests the western low will shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the northern Rockies into the central/northern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens. Some severe potential may also extend into the eastern and southeastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow enhances in the trough across Quebec from D6/Friday to D7/Saturday. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Across this region, possible hazards will include large to very large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tuesday. The subtropical jet will increase across Baja California into Mexico, with modest westerly flow aloft extending across western Texas. Scattered severe storms will be possible across portions of western Texas and central Montana. ...Western Texas into southeastern New Mexico... Modest westerly flow aloft will extend into western Texas Tuesday afternoon. Easterly upslope flow across the high terrain of the Davis Mountains and Stockton/Edwards Plateau and subtle mid-level forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Daytime heating will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s in combination with mid 50s to 60s dew points yielding an axis of moderate to strong instability from just east of Big Bend and north to the southern Permian Basin. In addition, a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will overspread the region by the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear, which will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Initially, hodographs will be generally straight but increasing southeasterly flow by the evening may support potential for increasing low-level shear and perhaps a tornado. ...Montana... Increasing mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will overspread portions of central Montana Tuesday afternoon, supporting scattered thunderstorms by the afternoon. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and modest instability/shear will support potential for a few instances of large hail and severe gusts. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Across this region, possible hazards will include large to very large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tuesday. The subtropical jet will increase across Baja California into Mexico, with modest westerly flow aloft extending across western Texas. Scattered severe storms will be possible across portions of western Texas and central Montana. ...Western Texas into southeastern New Mexico... Modest westerly flow aloft will extend into western Texas Tuesday afternoon. Easterly upslope flow across the high terrain of the Davis Mountains and Stockton/Edwards Plateau and subtle mid-level forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Daytime heating will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s in combination with mid 50s to 60s dew points yielding an axis of moderate to strong instability from just east of Big Bend and north to the southern Permian Basin. In addition, a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will overspread the region by the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear, which will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Initially, hodographs will be generally straight but increasing southeasterly flow by the evening may support potential for increasing low-level shear and perhaps a tornado. ...Montana... Increasing mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will overspread portions of central Montana Tuesday afternoon, supporting scattered thunderstorms by the afternoon. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and modest instability/shear will support potential for a few instances of large hail and severe gusts. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Across this region, possible hazards will include large to very large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tuesday. The subtropical jet will increase across Baja California into Mexico, with modest westerly flow aloft extending across western Texas. Scattered severe storms will be possible across portions of western Texas and central Montana. ...Western Texas into southeastern New Mexico... Modest westerly flow aloft will extend into western Texas Tuesday afternoon. Easterly upslope flow across the high terrain of the Davis Mountains and Stockton/Edwards Plateau and subtle mid-level forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Daytime heating will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s in combination with mid 50s to 60s dew points yielding an axis of moderate to strong instability from just east of Big Bend and north to the southern Permian Basin. In addition, a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will overspread the region by the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear, which will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Initially, hodographs will be generally straight but increasing southeasterly flow by the evening may support potential for increasing low-level shear and perhaps a tornado. ...Montana... Increasing mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will overspread portions of central Montana Tuesday afternoon, supporting scattered thunderstorms by the afternoon. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and modest instability/shear will support potential for a few instances of large hail and severe gusts. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Across this region, possible hazards will include large to very large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Synopsis... An upper low will deepen across the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tuesday. The subtropical jet will increase across Baja California into Mexico, with modest westerly flow aloft extending across western Texas. Scattered severe storms will be possible across portions of western Texas and central Montana. ...Western Texas into southeastern New Mexico... Modest westerly flow aloft will extend into western Texas Tuesday afternoon. Easterly upslope flow across the high terrain of the Davis Mountains and Stockton/Edwards Plateau and subtle mid-level forcing for ascent will aid in widely scattered thunderstorm activity by the afternoon. Daytime heating will allow for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s in combination with mid 50s to 60s dew points yielding an axis of moderate to strong instability from just east of Big Bend and north to the southern Permian Basin. In addition, a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will overspread the region by the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear, which will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Initially, hodographs will be generally straight but increasing southeasterly flow by the evening may support potential for increasing low-level shear and perhaps a tornado. ...Montana... Increasing mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will overspread portions of central Montana Tuesday afternoon, supporting scattered thunderstorms by the afternoon. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and modest instability/shear will support potential for a few instances of large hail and severe gusts. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will move onshore of the Pacific Northwest on D2/Monday as a second mid-level trough transitions northeastward across northern New England. Weak troughing will also persist across the lower Mississippi Valley/southern Plains and across the Southwest. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will remain in place across the Southeast and central/northern Plains. A surface low will track offshore of New England, with a trailing cold front progressing through the Mid-Atlantic before extending southwestward into the southern Plains. A cold front will also begin to advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest in tandem with a deepening surface low. ...Great Basin... A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH values of 10-15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this region. Thus, these conditions are expected to support a corridor of critical fire weather concerns from northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon Monday afternoon. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph overlapping reduced RH of 15-25% will also promote elevated fire weather conditions across adjacent areas of the Great Basin. ...Southwest... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying subtropical moisture plume will contribute to weak buoyancy atop well-mixed boundary layer profiles. This is expected to support widely scattered, high-based convection across much of northeastern Arizona and western New Mexico Monday afternoon. PWAT values ranging from 0.4-0.7" (locally up to 1") and more marginal LCLs ranging from 2-3+ km AGL will likely favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Given that fuels across the region remain quite dry (ERCs around the 90th percentile), isolated lightning ignitions remain possible. Thus, the 10% dry thunderstorm probability has been maintained for this update. ..Chalmers.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will move onshore of the Pacific Northwest on D2/Monday as a second mid-level trough transitions northeastward across northern New England. Weak troughing will also persist across the lower Mississippi Valley/southern Plains and across the Southwest. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will remain in place across the Southeast and central/northern Plains. A surface low will track offshore of New England, with a trailing cold front progressing through the Mid-Atlantic before extending southwestward into the southern Plains. A cold front will also begin to advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest in tandem with a deepening surface low. ...Great Basin... A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH values of 10-15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this region. Thus, these conditions are expected to support a corridor of critical fire weather concerns from northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon Monday afternoon. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph overlapping reduced RH of 15-25% will also promote elevated fire weather conditions across adjacent areas of the Great Basin. ...Southwest... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying subtropical moisture plume will contribute to weak buoyancy atop well-mixed boundary layer profiles. This is expected to support widely scattered, high-based convection across much of northeastern Arizona and western New Mexico Monday afternoon. PWAT values ranging from 0.4-0.7" (locally up to 1") and more marginal LCLs ranging from 2-3+ km AGL will likely favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Given that fuels across the region remain quite dry (ERCs around the 90th percentile), isolated lightning ignitions remain possible. Thus, the 10% dry thunderstorm probability has been maintained for this update. ..Chalmers.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will move onshore of the Pacific Northwest on D2/Monday as a second mid-level trough transitions northeastward across northern New England. Weak troughing will also persist across the lower Mississippi Valley/southern Plains and across the Southwest. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will remain in place across the Southeast and central/northern Plains. A surface low will track offshore of New England, with a trailing cold front progressing through the Mid-Atlantic before extending southwestward into the southern Plains. A cold front will also begin to advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest in tandem with a deepening surface low. ...Great Basin... A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH values of 10-15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this region. Thus, these conditions are expected to support a corridor of critical fire weather concerns from northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon Monday afternoon. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph overlapping reduced RH of 15-25% will also promote elevated fire weather conditions across adjacent areas of the Great Basin. ...Southwest... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying subtropical moisture plume will contribute to weak buoyancy atop well-mixed boundary layer profiles. This is expected to support widely scattered, high-based convection across much of northeastern Arizona and western New Mexico Monday afternoon. PWAT values ranging from 0.4-0.7" (locally up to 1") and more marginal LCLs ranging from 2-3+ km AGL will likely favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Given that fuels across the region remain quite dry (ERCs around the 90th percentile), isolated lightning ignitions remain possible. Thus, the 10% dry thunderstorm probability has been maintained for this update. ..Chalmers.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will move onshore of the Pacific Northwest on D2/Monday as a second mid-level trough transitions northeastward across northern New England. Weak troughing will also persist across the lower Mississippi Valley/southern Plains and across the Southwest. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will remain in place across the Southeast and central/northern Plains. A surface low will track offshore of New England, with a trailing cold front progressing through the Mid-Atlantic before extending southwestward into the southern Plains. A cold front will also begin to advance eastward across the Pacific Northwest in tandem with a deepening surface low. ...Great Basin... A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH values of 10-15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this region. Thus, these conditions are expected to support a corridor of critical fire weather concerns from northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon Monday afternoon. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph overlapping reduced RH of 15-25% will also promote elevated fire weather conditions across adjacent areas of the Great Basin. ...Southwest... A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying subtropical moisture plume will contribute to weak buoyancy atop well-mixed boundary layer profiles. This is expected to support widely scattered, high-based convection across much of northeastern Arizona and western New Mexico Monday afternoon. PWAT values ranging from 0.4-0.7" (locally up to 1") and more marginal LCLs ranging from 2-3+ km AGL will likely favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Given that fuels across the region remain quite dry (ERCs around the 90th percentile), isolated lightning ignitions remain possible. Thus, the 10% dry thunderstorm probability has been maintained for this update. ..Chalmers.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing will transition eastward across the northern Great Lakes today, with weak troughing also in place across the southern California and the southern Plains. Simultaneously, upper-level ridging will remain over the East Coast and much of the High Plains. At the surface, a frontal system will extend from the southern Great Plains northeastward into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, with multiple mid-level perturbations bringing chances for wetting rainfall to much of the South and the eastern US. Similar to Saturday, warm temperatures under subtle ridging will promote RH reductions to 10-20% across much of the West, but the lack of a strong surface pressure gradient will largely limit sustained wind speeds. This will preclude widespread fire weather concerns. Locally elevated conditions may still be possible in favored terrain/gap areas, however. ...North-central Montana... Modest westerly mid-level flow will promote deepening lee troughing across the southern Canadian Prairies and the northern High Plains today, with dry and breezy conditions expected across northern Montana. Sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH values as low as 15% will promote localized elevated fire weather concerns, mainly for areas where green up has been delayed by drought. ...Northern Great Basin into Southern Idaho... A plume of modest mid/upper-level subtropical moisture will extend from the Sierra Nevada eastward into southern Idaho, southern Wyoming, and the northern Colorado Rockies today. Diurnal heating will promote weak buoyancy within this moisture corridor, which will subsequently support isolated high-based convection this afternoon. Fuels and ongoing green up will continue to limit the potential for dry lightning ignitions. Thus, dry thunderstorm highlights continue to be withheld. ..Chalmers.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing will transition eastward across the northern Great Lakes today, with weak troughing also in place across the southern California and the southern Plains. Simultaneously, upper-level ridging will remain over the East Coast and much of the High Plains. At the surface, a frontal system will extend from the southern Great Plains northeastward into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, with multiple mid-level perturbations bringing chances for wetting rainfall to much of the South and the eastern US. Similar to Saturday, warm temperatures under subtle ridging will promote RH reductions to 10-20% across much of the West, but the lack of a strong surface pressure gradient will largely limit sustained wind speeds. This will preclude widespread fire weather concerns. Locally elevated conditions may still be possible in favored terrain/gap areas, however. ...North-central Montana... Modest westerly mid-level flow will promote deepening lee troughing across the southern Canadian Prairies and the northern High Plains today, with dry and breezy conditions expected across northern Montana. Sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH values as low as 15% will promote localized elevated fire weather concerns, mainly for areas where green up has been delayed by drought. ...Northern Great Basin into Southern Idaho... A plume of modest mid/upper-level subtropical moisture will extend from the Sierra Nevada eastward into southern Idaho, southern Wyoming, and the northern Colorado Rockies today. Diurnal heating will promote weak buoyancy within this moisture corridor, which will subsequently support isolated high-based convection this afternoon. Fuels and ongoing green up will continue to limit the potential for dry lightning ignitions. Thus, dry thunderstorm highlights continue to be withheld. ..Chalmers.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing will transition eastward across the northern Great Lakes today, with weak troughing also in place across the southern California and the southern Plains. Simultaneously, upper-level ridging will remain over the East Coast and much of the High Plains. At the surface, a frontal system will extend from the southern Great Plains northeastward into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, with multiple mid-level perturbations bringing chances for wetting rainfall to much of the South and the eastern US. Similar to Saturday, warm temperatures under subtle ridging will promote RH reductions to 10-20% across much of the West, but the lack of a strong surface pressure gradient will largely limit sustained wind speeds. This will preclude widespread fire weather concerns. Locally elevated conditions may still be possible in favored terrain/gap areas, however. ...North-central Montana... Modest westerly mid-level flow will promote deepening lee troughing across the southern Canadian Prairies and the northern High Plains today, with dry and breezy conditions expected across northern Montana. Sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH values as low as 15% will promote localized elevated fire weather concerns, mainly for areas where green up has been delayed by drought. ...Northern Great Basin into Southern Idaho... A plume of modest mid/upper-level subtropical moisture will extend from the Sierra Nevada eastward into southern Idaho, southern Wyoming, and the northern Colorado Rockies today. Diurnal heating will promote weak buoyancy within this moisture corridor, which will subsequently support isolated high-based convection this afternoon. Fuels and ongoing green up will continue to limit the potential for dry lightning ignitions. Thus, dry thunderstorm highlights continue to be withheld. ..Chalmers.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing will transition eastward across the northern Great Lakes today, with weak troughing also in place across the southern California and the southern Plains. Simultaneously, upper-level ridging will remain over the East Coast and much of the High Plains. At the surface, a frontal system will extend from the southern Great Plains northeastward into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, with multiple mid-level perturbations bringing chances for wetting rainfall to much of the South and the eastern US. Similar to Saturday, warm temperatures under subtle ridging will promote RH reductions to 10-20% across much of the West, but the lack of a strong surface pressure gradient will largely limit sustained wind speeds. This will preclude widespread fire weather concerns. Locally elevated conditions may still be possible in favored terrain/gap areas, however. ...North-central Montana... Modest westerly mid-level flow will promote deepening lee troughing across the southern Canadian Prairies and the northern High Plains today, with dry and breezy conditions expected across northern Montana. Sustained westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph and minimum RH values as low as 15% will promote localized elevated fire weather concerns, mainly for areas where green up has been delayed by drought. ...Northern Great Basin into Southern Idaho... A plume of modest mid/upper-level subtropical moisture will extend from the Sierra Nevada eastward into southern Idaho, southern Wyoming, and the northern Colorado Rockies today. Diurnal heating will promote weak buoyancy within this moisture corridor, which will subsequently support isolated high-based convection this afternoon. Fuels and ongoing green up will continue to limit the potential for dry lightning ignitions. Thus, dry thunderstorm highlights continue to be withheld. ..Chalmers.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast. ...Synopsis... A high amplitude ridge will build in from the west across the Plains on D2/Monday with height rises and weakening mid-level flow amid warming surface temperatures. An upper level low will begin to deepen and move inland across the Pacific Northwest. Widely scattered areas of thunderstorm development can be expected from the Southwest to the Central Plains/Upper Midwest and across the Southeast. A few strong storms will be possible across the Plains to the Midwest and in the Southeast. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region... While moderate buoyancy will extend across much of the Plains into the Midwest Monday afternoon, generally weak flow should temper the more organized severe threat. Modest west-northwesterly flow will overspread portions of MN/WI and Upper MI with a quick weak mid-level wave moving through the Great Lakes trough. Generally, the best forcing for ascent will be early with height rises expected by the afternoon. This leads to low confidence in thunderstorm development, though the air mass could conditionally support severe potential. ...Southern NM into west TX... An isolated strong storm or two could be possible from southern New Mexico into western Texas as an embedded shortwave moves across the Southwest. Deeply mixed profiles across New Mexico may support a strong to severe gust. However, the deeper moisture remains displaced to the east across western Texas. ...Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected overnight D1/Sunday into D2/Monday across the Gulf coast states. Depending on how this evolves and where resulting MCVs occur, a corridor of severe wind potential may be possible. For now confidence in the placement of mesoscale features remains too low. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast. ...Synopsis... A high amplitude ridge will build in from the west across the Plains on D2/Monday with height rises and weakening mid-level flow amid warming surface temperatures. An upper level low will begin to deepen and move inland across the Pacific Northwest. Widely scattered areas of thunderstorm development can be expected from the Southwest to the Central Plains/Upper Midwest and across the Southeast. A few strong storms will be possible across the Plains to the Midwest and in the Southeast. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region... While moderate buoyancy will extend across much of the Plains into the Midwest Monday afternoon, generally weak flow should temper the more organized severe threat. Modest west-northwesterly flow will overspread portions of MN/WI and Upper MI with a quick weak mid-level wave moving through the Great Lakes trough. Generally, the best forcing for ascent will be early with height rises expected by the afternoon. This leads to low confidence in thunderstorm development, though the air mass could conditionally support severe potential. ...Southern NM into west TX... An isolated strong storm or two could be possible from southern New Mexico into western Texas as an embedded shortwave moves across the Southwest. Deeply mixed profiles across New Mexico may support a strong to severe gust. However, the deeper moisture remains displaced to the east across western Texas. ...Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected overnight D1/Sunday into D2/Monday across the Gulf coast states. Depending on how this evolves and where resulting MCVs occur, a corridor of severe wind potential may be possible. For now confidence in the placement of mesoscale features remains too low. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast. ...Synopsis... A high amplitude ridge will build in from the west across the Plains on D2/Monday with height rises and weakening mid-level flow amid warming surface temperatures. An upper level low will begin to deepen and move inland across the Pacific Northwest. Widely scattered areas of thunderstorm development can be expected from the Southwest to the Central Plains/Upper Midwest and across the Southeast. A few strong storms will be possible across the Plains to the Midwest and in the Southeast. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region... While moderate buoyancy will extend across much of the Plains into the Midwest Monday afternoon, generally weak flow should temper the more organized severe threat. Modest west-northwesterly flow will overspread portions of MN/WI and Upper MI with a quick weak mid-level wave moving through the Great Lakes trough. Generally, the best forcing for ascent will be early with height rises expected by the afternoon. This leads to low confidence in thunderstorm development, though the air mass could conditionally support severe potential. ...Southern NM into west TX... An isolated strong storm or two could be possible from southern New Mexico into western Texas as an embedded shortwave moves across the Southwest. Deeply mixed profiles across New Mexico may support a strong to severe gust. However, the deeper moisture remains displaced to the east across western Texas. ...Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected overnight D1/Sunday into D2/Monday across the Gulf coast states. Depending on how this evolves and where resulting MCVs occur, a corridor of severe wind potential may be possible. For now confidence in the placement of mesoscale features remains too low. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low for Monday. Isolated strong storms may develop across parts of the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast. ...Synopsis... A high amplitude ridge will build in from the west across the Plains on D2/Monday with height rises and weakening mid-level flow amid warming surface temperatures. An upper level low will begin to deepen and move inland across the Pacific Northwest. Widely scattered areas of thunderstorm development can be expected from the Southwest to the Central Plains/Upper Midwest and across the Southeast. A few strong storms will be possible across the Plains to the Midwest and in the Southeast. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region... While moderate buoyancy will extend across much of the Plains into the Midwest Monday afternoon, generally weak flow should temper the more organized severe threat. Modest west-northwesterly flow will overspread portions of MN/WI and Upper MI with a quick weak mid-level wave moving through the Great Lakes trough. Generally, the best forcing for ascent will be early with height rises expected by the afternoon. This leads to low confidence in thunderstorm development, though the air mass could conditionally support severe potential. ...Southern NM into west TX... An isolated strong storm or two could be possible from southern New Mexico into western Texas as an embedded shortwave moves across the Southwest. Deeply mixed profiles across New Mexico may support a strong to severe gust. However, the deeper moisture remains displaced to the east across western Texas. ...Parts of the Gulf Coast/Southeast... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected overnight D1/Sunday into D2/Monday across the Gulf coast states. Depending on how this evolves and where resulting MCVs occur, a corridor of severe wind potential may be possible. For now confidence in the placement of mesoscale features remains too low. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2026 Read more