WW 463 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 051940Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Oklahoma
North Central into West Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify and build southeastward
across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. A
few severe storms are expected, with damaging winds and large hail
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of
Plainview TX to 40 miles east southeast of Tyler TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Hart
Read more
WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 463
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CVS
TO 20 E PVW TO 20 ESE CDS TO 15 N FTW TO 20 E CRS TO 40 SSE GGG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1515
..THOMPSON..07/05/26
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...LUB...SJT...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 463
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC001-017-023-035-059-073-079-093-101-107-125-133-139-143-151-
153-155-161-169-189-193-197-207-217-219-221-237-251-253-263-269-
275-279-293-303-305-309-345-347-349-353-363-367-417-425-429-433-
439-441-445-447-497-501-503-052340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BAILEY BAYLOR
BOSQUE CALLAHAN CHEROKEE
COCHRAN COMANCHE COTTLE
CROSBY DICKENS EASTLAND
ELLIS ERATH FISHER
FLOYD FOARD FREESTONE
GARZA HALE HAMILTON
HARDEMAN HASKELL HILL
HOCKLEY HOOD JACK
JOHNSON JONES KENT
KING KNOX LAMB
LIMESTONE LUBBOCK LYNN
MCLENNAN MOTLEY NACOGDOCHES
NAVARRO NOLAN PALO PINTO
PARKER SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL
Read more
WW 463 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 051940Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Oklahoma
North Central into West Texas
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify and build southeastward
across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. A
few severe storms are expected, with damaging winds and large hail
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of
Plainview TX to 40 miles east southeast of Tyler TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Hart
Read more
MD 1514 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 052200Z - 060000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Convective trends are being monitored across the
Mid-Atlantic region. While isolated convection continues to develop,
watch issuance is possible if/when more consolidated clusters begin
to emerge.
DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour have depicted a slight
uptick in isolated to widely scattered convection from northern VA
into MD and central PA. Latest GOES imagery also depicts several
areas of building cumulus north of the Washington D.C. area along a
weak surface confluence axis. A recent 20 UTC sounding from KIAD
sampled a weakly capped, but buoyant, profile, which hints that
further thunderstorm development is possible within the next couple
of hours along the confluence axes.
Although MLCAPE sampled by the RAOB is less than depicted by recent
mesoanalyses, MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg likely exist
across northern VA into southeast PA and southern NJ based on
surface observations. Additionally, easterly low-level flow is
supporting around 20-25 knots of effective bulk shear, which may be
sufficient for semi-organized clusters capable of strong/severe
winds.
Although isolated convection is ongoing, it remains unclear
precisely when and where upscale growth will occur in the coming
hours before the onset of nocturnal cooling. A cluster of storms
near the State College, PA area may pose the best chance for upscale
growth/clustering in the next 1-2 hours and could pose a greater
severe wind threat downstream into central NJ. Elsewhere, confidence
is more limited if/when such clustering will occur. Trends will
continue to be monitored, and watch issuance may be needed if a more
focused wind threat emerges.
..Moore.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 38247624 38007660 37877704 37887735 38007780 38167811
38417846 38667875 39017884 39337871 40347791 40597768
40787726 40877679 40907630 40847553 40707502 40557469
40297447 39987446 39607463 39267502 38967542 38617581
38247624
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
MD 1515 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463... FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Areas affected...North central and northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463...
Valid 052206Z - 052330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463
continues.
SUMMARY...Occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph will be the
primary severe threat the next few hours, especially across
northwest Texas. The severe threat may extend into the Midland CWA,
outside the current watch.
DISCUSSION...Multicell storm clusters have formed this afternoon
from the TX South Plains into northwest TX, and a separate area of
storms is ongoing in northeast TX. The eastern storms will pose a
threat for occasional wet microbursts as convection develops slowly
southward on outflow. Larger storm clusters with multiple outflow
surges are ongoing across northwest TX. The storms are developing
southwestward into the zone of strongest surface heating with the
steepest low-level lapse rates, roughly outlined in the cumulus
field that extends to about Sweetwater. This zone will encompass
the relatively greater threat for severe outflow winds with hybrid
microbursts into this evening, especially with cell and outflow
mergers.
Low-level moisture is a bit more limited toward Lubbock and the west
part of the watch. However, deep inverted-V profiles favor strong
downdrafts. The more probable area for severe gusts over the next
couple of hours will be with new storm development immediately
northeast of and into the Lubbock area where north-south and
east-west outflow segments merge.
..Thompson.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31899568 31619442 31349434 31169478 31499649 31959703
32259742 32479787 32609826 32609890 32539933 32449969
32430019 32490068 32650116 33080183 33370217 33600235
33860233 33940217 34000177 34250136 34250119 33840095
33530041 33770000 33749975 33509944 33339882 33379831
33539793 33199710 32249616 31899568
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
WW 465 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA WV CW 052245Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
645 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Delaware
Maryland
Southern New Jersey
South-Central and Southeast Pennsylvania
Northern Virginia
The Far Eastern West Virginia Panhandle
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 645 PM
until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...Loosely organized clusters and cells should pose some
threat for scattered damaging winds this evening as they spread
generally eastward. Occasional strong to severe gusts may reach up
to 55-65 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of
Harrisburg PA to 30 miles south of Washington DC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 463...WW 464...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27020.
...Gleason
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Overall, this upcoming week represents a critical fire weather
pattern for portions of the Intermountain West with hotter and drier
conditions followed by lightning then dry and breezy conditions. An
upper-level trough will move into southwest Canada mid-week, with
zonal westerly flow and a flattened ridge over the northern half to
two-thirds of the West. As the upper-level ridge flattens, the upper
high retrogrades off the southern California coast. A weak dry cold
front will push through the Northwest and into the Great Basin
mid-week, with moisture and above normal temperatures ahead of it.
Moisture will likely eventually push east of the Colorado Rockies
and be suppressed southward to southern Arizona and New Mexico mid
to late week. Forecast uncertainty exists late in the period
regarding how an upper-level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast
will interact with the likely building upper-level ridge over most
of the West, especially the Intermountain West Day 6/Friday - Day
8/Sunday.
Southwest flow aloft with a ribbon of higher PWAT values (0.5-0.9")
will exist from central Oregon into the Four Corners. Isolated to
scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely to develop around
the Greater Four Corners over the higher terrain, with further
development likely extending northwest into central Oregon on Day
3/Tuesday. Wetter thunderstorms are possible in portions of
northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. Additionally, there is
some concern with slight height rises, but sufficient moisture,
terrain aided updrafts, and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates
should compensate.
Dry and breezy conditions are likely through the Cascade Gaps and
onto the Columbia Basin on Day 3/Tuesday as the onshore pressure
gradient strengthens. The dry and breezy conditions will likely
extend into northeast California and northwest Nevada, but portions
of central/southern Oregon may not hit elevated criteria.
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely
across portions of the northern/eastern Great Basin into the Four
Corners on Day 4/Wednesday. The 10% area was drawn on the
southern/western edge of expected wetter thunderstorms and over more
receptive fuels. Dry and breezy conditions will be likely in the
Washington Cascade Gaps onto the Columbia Basin and in portions of
the central/southern Great Basin ahead of and perhaps behind the dry
cold front and along thermal trough axes where two 40% areas were
introduced. The front and trough axes may also help focus
thunderstorm development.
Dry and breezy conditions continue on Day 5/Thursday across the
southern Great Basin into the Four Corners. Dry and breezy
conditions may be more expansive than currently identified with the
40% area. Some forecast uncertainty exists regarding the upper-level
trough moving into southwest Canada and its interaction with the
upper-level ridge over the Southwest on Day 4/Wednesday - Day
5/Thursday. Moisture is likely to push east and south, with
thunderstorms unlikely west of the Divide on Day 5/Thursday - Day
6/Friday.
..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Overall, this upcoming week represents a critical fire weather
pattern for portions of the Intermountain West with hotter and drier
conditions followed by lightning then dry and breezy conditions. An
upper-level trough will move into southwest Canada mid-week, with
zonal westerly flow and a flattened ridge over the northern half to
two-thirds of the West. As the upper-level ridge flattens, the upper
high retrogrades off the southern California coast. A weak dry cold
front will push through the Northwest and into the Great Basin
mid-week, with moisture and above normal temperatures ahead of it.
Moisture will likely eventually push east of the Colorado Rockies
and be suppressed southward to southern Arizona and New Mexico mid
to late week. Forecast uncertainty exists late in the period
regarding how an upper-level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast
will interact with the likely building upper-level ridge over most
of the West, especially the Intermountain West Day 6/Friday - Day
8/Sunday.
Southwest flow aloft with a ribbon of higher PWAT values (0.5-0.9")
will exist from central Oregon into the Four Corners. Isolated to
scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely to develop around
the Greater Four Corners over the higher terrain, with further
development likely extending northwest into central Oregon on Day
3/Tuesday. Wetter thunderstorms are possible in portions of
northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. Additionally, there is
some concern with slight height rises, but sufficient moisture,
terrain aided updrafts, and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates
should compensate.
Dry and breezy conditions are likely through the Cascade Gaps and
onto the Columbia Basin on Day 3/Tuesday as the onshore pressure
gradient strengthens. The dry and breezy conditions will likely
extend into northeast California and northwest Nevada, but portions
of central/southern Oregon may not hit elevated criteria.
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely
across portions of the northern/eastern Great Basin into the Four
Corners on Day 4/Wednesday. The 10% area was drawn on the
southern/western edge of expected wetter thunderstorms and over more
receptive fuels. Dry and breezy conditions will be likely in the
Washington Cascade Gaps onto the Columbia Basin and in portions of
the central/southern Great Basin ahead of and perhaps behind the dry
cold front and along thermal trough axes where two 40% areas were
introduced. The front and trough axes may also help focus
thunderstorm development.
Dry and breezy conditions continue on Day 5/Thursday across the
southern Great Basin into the Four Corners. Dry and breezy
conditions may be more expansive than currently identified with the
40% area. Some forecast uncertainty exists regarding the upper-level
trough moving into southwest Canada and its interaction with the
upper-level ridge over the Southwest on Day 4/Wednesday - Day
5/Thursday. Moisture is likely to push east and south, with
thunderstorms unlikely west of the Divide on Day 5/Thursday - Day
6/Friday.
..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
Overall, this upcoming week represents a critical fire weather
pattern for portions of the Intermountain West with hotter and drier
conditions followed by lightning then dry and breezy conditions. An
upper-level trough will move into southwest Canada mid-week, with
zonal westerly flow and a flattened ridge over the northern half to
two-thirds of the West. As the upper-level ridge flattens, the upper
high retrogrades off the southern California coast. A weak dry cold
front will push through the Northwest and into the Great Basin
mid-week, with moisture and above normal temperatures ahead of it.
Moisture will likely eventually push east of the Colorado Rockies
and be suppressed southward to southern Arizona and New Mexico mid
to late week. Forecast uncertainty exists late in the period
regarding how an upper-level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast
will interact with the likely building upper-level ridge over most
of the West, especially the Intermountain West Day 6/Friday - Day
8/Sunday.
Southwest flow aloft with a ribbon of higher PWAT values (0.5-0.9")
will exist from central Oregon into the Four Corners. Isolated to
scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely to develop around
the Greater Four Corners over the higher terrain, with further
development likely extending northwest into central Oregon on Day
3/Tuesday. Wetter thunderstorms are possible in portions of
northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico. Additionally, there is
some concern with slight height rises, but sufficient moisture,
terrain aided updrafts, and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates
should compensate.
Dry and breezy conditions are likely through the Cascade Gaps and
onto the Columbia Basin on Day 3/Tuesday as the onshore pressure
gradient strengthens. The dry and breezy conditions will likely
extend into northeast California and northwest Nevada, but portions
of central/southern Oregon may not hit elevated criteria.
Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms remain likely
across portions of the northern/eastern Great Basin into the Four
Corners on Day 4/Wednesday. The 10% area was drawn on the
southern/western edge of expected wetter thunderstorms and over more
receptive fuels. Dry and breezy conditions will be likely in the
Washington Cascade Gaps onto the Columbia Basin and in portions of
the central/southern Great Basin ahead of and perhaps behind the dry
cold front and along thermal trough axes where two 40% areas were
introduced. The front and trough axes may also help focus
thunderstorm development.
Dry and breezy conditions continue on Day 5/Thursday across the
southern Great Basin into the Four Corners. Dry and breezy
conditions may be more expansive than currently identified with the
40% area. Some forecast uncertainty exists regarding the upper-level
trough moving into southwest Canada and its interaction with the
upper-level ridge over the Southwest on Day 4/Wednesday - Day
5/Thursday. Moisture is likely to push east and south, with
thunderstorms unlikely west of the Divide on Day 5/Thursday - Day
6/Friday.
..Nauslar.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 1512 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MT VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1512
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Areas affected...Southwest into southern/central MT vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051907Z - 052100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon while spreading from southwest Montana into
central portions of the state through evening. Isolated strong wind
gusts will be possible, though a watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating into the 80s amid steep midlevel lapse
rates is supporting weak destabilization early this afternoon across
the higher terrain of southwest MT and vicinity. Isolated
thunderstorms are developing over the higher terrain within 30-40 kt
effective shear magnitudes, and coverage should increase as storms
track toward the northeast. Fast-moving storms may pose a risk for
strong winds through the afternoon, particularly given large
temperature-dewpoint spread and steepening low-level lapse rates.
However, instability will remain weak and limit greater organized
severe potential.
..Leitman/Hart.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
LAT...LON 44771436 46091287 47201044 47650887 47560802 46750748
45790740 45370792 45001134 43991350 43981385 44301438
44771436
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
MD 1513 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 051947Z - 052145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected by 22z. Isolated
large hail and strong wind gusts will be the main hazards with these
storms through evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed in the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies have allowed for strong heating in
the upper 80 to low 90s across western/central ND. Boundary layer
moisture remains modest across the region, though a plume of 60s
dewpoints has spread north and west across portions of the
discussion area ahead of a surface cold front over the Canadian
Prairies into northeast MT. Steepening midlevel lapse rates are
supporting moderate destabilization, while increasing mid/upper
southwesterly flow is resulting in 30-40 kt effective shear. Cumulus
development is noted across western ND and thunderstorm initiation
is expected in the next couple of hours. Supercell wind profiles are
present across the region, and isolated large hail and strong wind
gusts are expected with this activity. Trends are being monitored
and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next
couple hours.
..Leitman/Hart.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 49199934 48319995 47460113 47300305 47680331 48300299
49250214 49199934
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 1510 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Areas affected...eastern South Carolina into central North Carolina
and far south-central Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051753Z - 052100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts are possible through this afternoon
across the central Carolinas into southern Virginia.
DISCUSSION...Storms formed quickly near the SC sea breeze, and where
a very moist and unstable air mass was already in place this morning
per 12Z CHS sounding. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg also extends
northward across much of NC, where temperatures continue to rise
near a weak pressure trough. Additional storms could redevelop
northward as outflows are produced.
North of the existing sea breeze storms, additional clusters are
evident, and some of this activity may gain localized severe wind
potential over the next few hours as they move with an eastward
component toward increasing DCAPE.
..Jewell/Hart.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 33658127 34948026 36107984 36957950 37027901 37137809
37007773 36737772 36047803 34127885 33547912 33287950
32857993 32588078 32948126 33658127
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
WW 464 SEVERE TSTM ND 052030Z - 060400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western North Dakota
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify across western
North Dakota this afternoon, with a few severe storms possible.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main concerns, although an
isolated tornado is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles southwest of
Garrison ND to 55 miles north northwest of Minot ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 463...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.
Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with thunderstorms in
North Dakota and west/northwest Texas.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A
mesovortex embedded within a multicellular complex developed a few
hours ago and produced a localized swath of intense winds along the
OH/PA border. A repeat of such activity cannot be ruled out across
western into central PA given the presence of a broad baroclinic
boundary for ongoing storms to traverse. However, confidence in the
development of another mesovortex is too low for an appreciable
modification of severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 07/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/
...Mid Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of
eastern OH/WV into PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. The overall
thermodynamic environment has weakened considerably compared to
yesterday, with CAPE, low-level lapse rates, and heating showing
parameters only marginally favorable for damaging winds.
Nevertheless, parts of northern VA into eastern PA and NJ will see
strong heating all day with storms moving in during the early
evening. This will help to maximize low-level conditions favorable
for gusty/damaging winds later today. Therefore will maintain
ongoing SLGT risk area.
...Gulf coast states to Carolinas...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail over much of the southeast
today, with dewpoints in the 70s and pockets of moderate CAPE.
Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms will occur across this region
with locally damaging winds possible in the strongest storms.
...TX...
Full sunshine is noted over TX today, with dewpoints near 70F and
the potential for afternoon MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. All CAM
solutions indicate thunderstorm development this afternoon along the
remnant outflow from overnight convection, extending from the
southern TX Panhandle into north-central TX. Initial storms may be
supercellular with large hail and damaging winds possible. Storms
are expected to congeal through the evening and sag southward, with
a continued risk of damaging winds.
...Northern ND...
A cold front will move across northeast MT today, with a diffuse
surface dryline along the MT/ND border. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon.
Shear profiles will be sufficient for supercell structures capable
of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.
...MT...
Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the mountains of southwest MT and spread east-northeastward.
Inverted-v profiles and moderately strong winds aloft will pose a
risk of damaging wind gusts in a few of these storms.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.
Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with thunderstorms in
North Dakota and west/northwest Texas.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A
mesovortex embedded within a multicellular complex developed a few
hours ago and produced a localized swath of intense winds along the
OH/PA border. A repeat of such activity cannot be ruled out across
western into central PA given the presence of a broad baroclinic
boundary for ongoing storms to traverse. However, confidence in the
development of another mesovortex is too low for an appreciable
modification of severe probabilities at this time.
..Squitieri.. 07/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/
...Mid Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of
eastern OH/WV into PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. The overall
thermodynamic environment has weakened considerably compared to
yesterday, with CAPE, low-level lapse rates, and heating showing
parameters only marginally favorable for damaging winds.
Nevertheless, parts of northern VA into eastern PA and NJ will see
strong heating all day with storms moving in during the early
evening. This will help to maximize low-level conditions favorable
for gusty/damaging winds later today. Therefore will maintain
ongoing SLGT risk area.
...Gulf coast states to Carolinas...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail over much of the southeast
today, with dewpoints in the 70s and pockets of moderate CAPE.
Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms will occur across this region
with locally damaging winds possible in the strongest storms.
...TX...
Full sunshine is noted over TX today, with dewpoints near 70F and
the potential for afternoon MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. All CAM
solutions indicate thunderstorm development this afternoon along the
remnant outflow from overnight convection, extending from the
southern TX Panhandle into north-central TX. Initial storms may be
supercellular with large hail and damaging winds possible. Storms
are expected to congeal through the evening and sag southward, with
a continued risk of damaging winds.
...Northern ND...
A cold front will move across northeast MT today, with a diffuse
surface dryline along the MT/ND border. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon.
Shear profiles will be sufficient for supercell structures capable
of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.
...MT...
Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the mountains of southwest MT and spread east-northeastward.
Inverted-v profiles and moderately strong winds aloft will pose a
risk of damaging wind gusts in a few of these storms.
Read more
