MD 0845 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Areas affected...Parts of western North TX and far southwestern OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 240546Z - 240715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for sporadic strong-severe gusts will continue
for another hour or so.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms with a recent history of
producing measured gusts of 60-75 mph is tracking east-southeastward
across western North TX and far southwestern OK. While large-scale
forcing for ascent is weak and the low-level jet is not particularly
strong, recent radar data from LBB and FDR indicate a trailing
stratiform region and signs of an established (albeit modest)
rear-inflow jet. Related cold pool dynamics should continue to
support new updrafts along the leading gust front as it tracks
east-southeastward through a corridor of weakly unstable air, and
sporadic strong-severe gusts will remain possible before this
cluster weakens over the next couple hours.
..Weinman/Smith.. 05/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33180064 33470031 33840010 34510005 34649971 34589936
34329889 33859858 33469851 32889866 32579917 32589967
32630033 32910069 33180064
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains
and Southeast today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather.
...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow is undergoing gradual amplification across the
northern mid-latitude Pacific. It appears that this will continue
through this period, with a fairly significant mid-level trough and
associated cyclone approaching the British Columbia and Pacific
Northwest coast by late tonight. Downstream, mid-level heights will
tend to rise across the northern Rockies and much of the Missouri
Valley through Upper Midwest, with troughing farther east generally
receding into the eastern Canadian provinces and adjacent portions
of the Northeast.
In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, a notable mid-level
high is forecast to be maintained and remain centered to the
west-southwest of Bermuda. Upstream, it appears that weak upper
troughing will linger across eastern Texas through the western Gulf
Basin, with perhaps an associated mid-level cyclonic circulation
centered across the upper Texas coastal plain, as the leading edge
of broad weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern
Pacific progresses through the Southwest.
As the stronger mid-latitude westerlies become increasingly confined
to areas near and north of the western and central Canadian/U.S.
border area, and the lower Great Lakes/Northeast, seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content will generally remain confined to
the Gulf Coast states and southern Atlantic Seaboard. However,
modest low-level moisture return appears probable along and east of
weak lee surface troughing across the central Great Plains.
...Central Great Plains...
Substantive spread remains evident within latest model output,
including convection allowing guidance, concerning developments
which will influence convective potential this afternoon into
tonight. The risk for severe weather, in general, still seems
likely to be limited by weak forcing for ascent, seasonably modest
low-level moisture return, and modest to weak late afternoon into
early evening deep-layer mean wind fields.
However, due to veering of wind fields with height beneath modest
west to northwesterly mid/upper flow, vertical shear along and east
of the lee surface trough may become at least marginally sufficient
for organized convection, including supercells. And any
thunderstorm development persisting into mid/late evening may be
augmented by a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet
(including 30-40 kt around 850 mb).
In the presence of steep lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles
probably will become supportive of storms capable of producing large
hail during peak late afternoon instability into early evening,
particularly where it appears shear may be strongest across parts of
the middle Missouri Valley vicinity. Otherwise, widely scattered to
scattered storms may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind
gusts into mid to late evening, before instability wanes and
convection weakens.
...Southeast...
Severe weather potential across the Gulf Coast states into Southeast
today remains uncertain, with little clear signal evident in latest
model output. However, a notable cluster of storms, which has
weakened since becoming better organized offshore of the Louisiana
coast earlier this evening, has generated a meso-beta scale
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity center. It appears that
this may migrate inland across the western Florida Panhandle
vicinity near or shortly after daybreak, before continuing
northeastward during the day. As it does, based on potential
instability present in latest objective analysis, it could become a
focus for slowly intensifying and organizing thunderstorm
development which could eventually pose increasing potential to
produce damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains
and Southeast today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather.
...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow is undergoing gradual amplification across the
northern mid-latitude Pacific. It appears that this will continue
through this period, with a fairly significant mid-level trough and
associated cyclone approaching the British Columbia and Pacific
Northwest coast by late tonight. Downstream, mid-level heights will
tend to rise across the northern Rockies and much of the Missouri
Valley through Upper Midwest, with troughing farther east generally
receding into the eastern Canadian provinces and adjacent portions
of the Northeast.
In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, a notable mid-level
high is forecast to be maintained and remain centered to the
west-southwest of Bermuda. Upstream, it appears that weak upper
troughing will linger across eastern Texas through the western Gulf
Basin, with perhaps an associated mid-level cyclonic circulation
centered across the upper Texas coastal plain, as the leading edge
of broad weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern
Pacific progresses through the Southwest.
As the stronger mid-latitude westerlies become increasingly confined
to areas near and north of the western and central Canadian/U.S.
border area, and the lower Great Lakes/Northeast, seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content will generally remain confined to
the Gulf Coast states and southern Atlantic Seaboard. However,
modest low-level moisture return appears probable along and east of
weak lee surface troughing across the central Great Plains.
...Central Great Plains...
Substantive spread remains evident within latest model output,
including convection allowing guidance, concerning developments
which will influence convective potential this afternoon into
tonight. The risk for severe weather, in general, still seems
likely to be limited by weak forcing for ascent, seasonably modest
low-level moisture return, and modest to weak late afternoon into
early evening deep-layer mean wind fields.
However, due to veering of wind fields with height beneath modest
west to northwesterly mid/upper flow, vertical shear along and east
of the lee surface trough may become at least marginally sufficient
for organized convection, including supercells. And any
thunderstorm development persisting into mid/late evening may be
augmented by a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet
(including 30-40 kt around 850 mb).
In the presence of steep lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles
probably will become supportive of storms capable of producing large
hail during peak late afternoon instability into early evening,
particularly where it appears shear may be strongest across parts of
the middle Missouri Valley vicinity. Otherwise, widely scattered to
scattered storms may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind
gusts into mid to late evening, before instability wanes and
convection weakens.
...Southeast...
Severe weather potential across the Gulf Coast states into Southeast
today remains uncertain, with little clear signal evident in latest
model output. However, a notable cluster of storms, which has
weakened since becoming better organized offshore of the Louisiana
coast earlier this evening, has generated a meso-beta scale
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity center. It appears that
this may migrate inland across the western Florida Panhandle
vicinity near or shortly after daybreak, before continuing
northeastward during the day. As it does, based on potential
instability present in latest objective analysis, it could become a
focus for slowly intensifying and organizing thunderstorm
development which could eventually pose increasing potential to
produce damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains
and Southeast today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather.
...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow is undergoing gradual amplification across the
northern mid-latitude Pacific. It appears that this will continue
through this period, with a fairly significant mid-level trough and
associated cyclone approaching the British Columbia and Pacific
Northwest coast by late tonight. Downstream, mid-level heights will
tend to rise across the northern Rockies and much of the Missouri
Valley through Upper Midwest, with troughing farther east generally
receding into the eastern Canadian provinces and adjacent portions
of the Northeast.
In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, a notable mid-level
high is forecast to be maintained and remain centered to the
west-southwest of Bermuda. Upstream, it appears that weak upper
troughing will linger across eastern Texas through the western Gulf
Basin, with perhaps an associated mid-level cyclonic circulation
centered across the upper Texas coastal plain, as the leading edge
of broad weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern
Pacific progresses through the Southwest.
As the stronger mid-latitude westerlies become increasingly confined
to areas near and north of the western and central Canadian/U.S.
border area, and the lower Great Lakes/Northeast, seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content will generally remain confined to
the Gulf Coast states and southern Atlantic Seaboard. However,
modest low-level moisture return appears probable along and east of
weak lee surface troughing across the central Great Plains.
...Central Great Plains...
Substantive spread remains evident within latest model output,
including convection allowing guidance, concerning developments
which will influence convective potential this afternoon into
tonight. The risk for severe weather, in general, still seems
likely to be limited by weak forcing for ascent, seasonably modest
low-level moisture return, and modest to weak late afternoon into
early evening deep-layer mean wind fields.
However, due to veering of wind fields with height beneath modest
west to northwesterly mid/upper flow, vertical shear along and east
of the lee surface trough may become at least marginally sufficient
for organized convection, including supercells. And any
thunderstorm development persisting into mid/late evening may be
augmented by a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet
(including 30-40 kt around 850 mb).
In the presence of steep lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles
probably will become supportive of storms capable of producing large
hail during peak late afternoon instability into early evening,
particularly where it appears shear may be strongest across parts of
the middle Missouri Valley vicinity. Otherwise, widely scattered to
scattered storms may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind
gusts into mid to late evening, before instability wanes and
convection weakens.
...Southeast...
Severe weather potential across the Gulf Coast states into Southeast
today remains uncertain, with little clear signal evident in latest
model output. However, a notable cluster of storms, which has
weakened since becoming better organized offshore of the Louisiana
coast earlier this evening, has generated a meso-beta scale
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity center. It appears that
this may migrate inland across the western Florida Panhandle
vicinity near or shortly after daybreak, before continuing
northeastward during the day. As it does, based on potential
instability present in latest objective analysis, it could become a
focus for slowly intensifying and organizing thunderstorm
development which could eventually pose increasing potential to
produce damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains
and Southeast today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather.
...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow is undergoing gradual amplification across the
northern mid-latitude Pacific. It appears that this will continue
through this period, with a fairly significant mid-level trough and
associated cyclone approaching the British Columbia and Pacific
Northwest coast by late tonight. Downstream, mid-level heights will
tend to rise across the northern Rockies and much of the Missouri
Valley through Upper Midwest, with troughing farther east generally
receding into the eastern Canadian provinces and adjacent portions
of the Northeast.
In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, a notable mid-level
high is forecast to be maintained and remain centered to the
west-southwest of Bermuda. Upstream, it appears that weak upper
troughing will linger across eastern Texas through the western Gulf
Basin, with perhaps an associated mid-level cyclonic circulation
centered across the upper Texas coastal plain, as the leading edge
of broad weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern
Pacific progresses through the Southwest.
As the stronger mid-latitude westerlies become increasingly confined
to areas near and north of the western and central Canadian/U.S.
border area, and the lower Great Lakes/Northeast, seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content will generally remain confined to
the Gulf Coast states and southern Atlantic Seaboard. However,
modest low-level moisture return appears probable along and east of
weak lee surface troughing across the central Great Plains.
...Central Great Plains...
Substantive spread remains evident within latest model output,
including convection allowing guidance, concerning developments
which will influence convective potential this afternoon into
tonight. The risk for severe weather, in general, still seems
likely to be limited by weak forcing for ascent, seasonably modest
low-level moisture return, and modest to weak late afternoon into
early evening deep-layer mean wind fields.
However, due to veering of wind fields with height beneath modest
west to northwesterly mid/upper flow, vertical shear along and east
of the lee surface trough may become at least marginally sufficient
for organized convection, including supercells. And any
thunderstorm development persisting into mid/late evening may be
augmented by a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet
(including 30-40 kt around 850 mb).
In the presence of steep lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles
probably will become supportive of storms capable of producing large
hail during peak late afternoon instability into early evening,
particularly where it appears shear may be strongest across parts of
the middle Missouri Valley vicinity. Otherwise, widely scattered to
scattered storms may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind
gusts into mid to late evening, before instability wanes and
convection weakens.
...Southeast...
Severe weather potential across the Gulf Coast states into Southeast
today remains uncertain, with little clear signal evident in latest
model output. However, a notable cluster of storms, which has
weakened since becoming better organized offshore of the Louisiana
coast earlier this evening, has generated a meso-beta scale
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity center. It appears that
this may migrate inland across the western Florida Panhandle
vicinity near or shortly after daybreak, before continuing
northeastward during the day. As it does, based on potential
instability present in latest objective analysis, it could become a
focus for slowly intensifying and organizing thunderstorm
development which could eventually pose increasing potential to
produce damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/24/2026
Read more
WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE TCC
TO 10 W AMA TO 25 SSE BGD TO 25 SSE BGD TO 15 ENE BGD TO 35 SSE
GUY TO 15 SE GUY.
..MEAD..05/24/26
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC011-017-045-069-079-087-107-117-125-129-153-179-189-191-195-
219-279-303-345-357-369-381-393-437-483-240340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CASTRO COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH
CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS
DONLEY FLOYD GRAY
HALE HALL HANSFORD
HOCKLEY LAMB LUBBOCK
MOTLEY OCHILTREE PARMER
RANDALL ROBERTS SWISHER
WHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 242 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 232205Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
The western and central Oklahoma Panhandle
The Texas Panhandle and South Plains
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Storms forming in New Mexico will spread
east-southeastward into the Texas Panhandle through late evening
with potential to grow into one or more clusters with severe outflow
gusts (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in
diameter).
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of
Guymon OK to 10 miles south southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 241...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Thompson
Read more
MD 0844 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 242... FOR THE PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0844
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...the Panhandle into the South Plains of Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...
Valid 240201Z - 240300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe wind gust potential is expected to become more
sporadic with time through 04z (11 PM CDT).
DISCUSSION...As of 0145 UTC, mosaic radar data sampled a bowing line
of storms moving through the north-central and central TX Panhandle
with an east to southeast system motion of 35 to 40 kt. The
convective system has reached a mature state, featuring a trailing
stratiform region and associated 35-40 kt rear-inflow jet, per KAMA
VWP. The system cold pool has recently begun to surge ahead of the
parent updrafts, at least in the Amarillo vicinity, with echo-top
trends decreasing with time, suggesting that the parent updrafts are
being to assume an increasing upshear tilt. A recent wind gust to 75
mph was observed just north of Amarillo, but otherwise, gusts have
generally been in the 45-55 mph range.
Latest surface observations and objective analysis indicate the MCS
moving into an increasingly moist boundary layer, which will offset
gradual cooling to some extent, with MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg.
However, convective inhibition will continue to increase, which
coupled with a growing cold pool-shear imbalance, is expected to
result in severe wind gusts becoming more sporadic with time through
04z as the MCS moves into the eastern TX Panhandle.
In the TX South Plains, storms have merged into clusters and line
segments west and northwest of Lubbock. Based on radar trends, there
is some potential for the southern portion of the TX Panhandle MCS
to merge with this separate regime in the southern TX Panhandle or
the northern part of the South Plains in the next hour or two.
Locally strong to severe wind gusts will be possible as that process
occurs, along with isolated occurrences of severe hail.
..Mead.. 05/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33680306 35620303 35620214 36520212 36510056 33350046
33350308 33680306
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE TCC
TO 35 S DHT TO 30 WNW BGD TO 35 SSW GUY TO 15 W GUY TO 5 ENE EHA.
..MEAD..05/24/26
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC139-240240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-117-125-129-153-179-189-191-195-
219-233-279-303-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-437-240240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN
CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS
DONLEY FLOYD GRAY
HALE HALL HANSFORD
HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON LAMB
LUBBOCK MOTLEY OCHILTREE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SWISHER
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving clusters of thunderstorms will probably be
accompanied by strong to locally severe wind gusts while spreading
from the Texas Panhandle vicinity through western North Texas this
evening into the overnight hours.
...01z Update...
...Southern Great Plains...
Considerable thunderstorm development is generally slowly spreading
eastward after initiating along the dryline, roughly from near
Clovis, NM into the Midland vicinity. However, at least somewhat
more prominent convective development continues to evolve farther to
the north, after initiating off the higher terrain to the east of
Raton and portions of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This is
appearing to be aided by stronger, albeit still modest,
northwesterly shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies,
within otherwise quite weak westerly ambient deep-layer mean flow
around or less than 10 kt, which prevails across much of the
southern Great Plains.
CAPE is somewhat modest as well, generally on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg across the high plains, but the boundary-layer has become
deeply mixed, with surface temperature-dew point spreads around or
in excess of 30F. In the presence of the more favorable shear, the
northern cluster has already generated a notable southeastward
surging cold pool accompanied by strong to locally severe wind
gusts. It appears that this will continue southeastward across much
of the southern Texas Panhandle during the next few hours. More
uncertainty exists later as it begins to interact with the
convection spreading off the dryline, but at least some convection
allowing guidance suggests that an outflow boundary intersection
could become a focus for continuing thunderstorm development with
strong to severe gusts into portions of western North Texas late
this evening or overnight.
...Southeastern Louisiana coast...
Low severe wind probabilities are being maintained tonight, as an
outflow boundary remains a focus for thunderstorm development mostly
offshore into the vicinity of southeastern coastal areas. Aided by
inflow of high moisture content air supportive of moderately large
CAPE, ongoing activity could still organize and intensify in the
presence of modest shear and southwesterly ambient deep-layer mean
flow up to around 20 kt.
..Kerr.. 05/24/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving clusters of thunderstorms will probably be
accompanied by strong to locally severe wind gusts while spreading
from the Texas Panhandle vicinity through western North Texas this
evening into the overnight hours.
...01z Update...
...Southern Great Plains...
Considerable thunderstorm development is generally slowly spreading
eastward after initiating along the dryline, roughly from near
Clovis, NM into the Midland vicinity. However, at least somewhat
more prominent convective development continues to evolve farther to
the north, after initiating off the higher terrain to the east of
Raton and portions of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This is
appearing to be aided by stronger, albeit still modest,
northwesterly shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies,
within otherwise quite weak westerly ambient deep-layer mean flow
around or less than 10 kt, which prevails across much of the
southern Great Plains.
CAPE is somewhat modest as well, generally on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg across the high plains, but the boundary-layer has become
deeply mixed, with surface temperature-dew point spreads around or
in excess of 30F. In the presence of the more favorable shear, the
northern cluster has already generated a notable southeastward
surging cold pool accompanied by strong to locally severe wind
gusts. It appears that this will continue southeastward across much
of the southern Texas Panhandle during the next few hours. More
uncertainty exists later as it begins to interact with the
convection spreading off the dryline, but at least some convection
allowing guidance suggests that an outflow boundary intersection
could become a focus for continuing thunderstorm development with
strong to severe gusts into portions of western North Texas late
this evening or overnight.
...Southeastern Louisiana coast...
Low severe wind probabilities are being maintained tonight, as an
outflow boundary remains a focus for thunderstorm development mostly
offshore into the vicinity of southeastern coastal areas. Aided by
inflow of high moisture content air supportive of moderately large
CAPE, ongoing activity could still organize and intensify in the
presence of modest shear and southwesterly ambient deep-layer mean
flow up to around 20 kt.
..Kerr.. 05/24/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving clusters of thunderstorms will probably be
accompanied by strong to locally severe wind gusts while spreading
from the Texas Panhandle vicinity through western North Texas this
evening into the overnight hours.
...01z Update...
...Southern Great Plains...
Considerable thunderstorm development is generally slowly spreading
eastward after initiating along the dryline, roughly from near
Clovis, NM into the Midland vicinity. However, at least somewhat
more prominent convective development continues to evolve farther to
the north, after initiating off the higher terrain to the east of
Raton and portions of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This is
appearing to be aided by stronger, albeit still modest,
northwesterly shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies,
within otherwise quite weak westerly ambient deep-layer mean flow
around or less than 10 kt, which prevails across much of the
southern Great Plains.
CAPE is somewhat modest as well, generally on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg across the high plains, but the boundary-layer has become
deeply mixed, with surface temperature-dew point spreads around or
in excess of 30F. In the presence of the more favorable shear, the
northern cluster has already generated a notable southeastward
surging cold pool accompanied by strong to locally severe wind
gusts. It appears that this will continue southeastward across much
of the southern Texas Panhandle during the next few hours. More
uncertainty exists later as it begins to interact with the
convection spreading off the dryline, but at least some convection
allowing guidance suggests that an outflow boundary intersection
could become a focus for continuing thunderstorm development with
strong to severe gusts into portions of western North Texas late
this evening or overnight.
...Southeastern Louisiana coast...
Low severe wind probabilities are being maintained tonight, as an
outflow boundary remains a focus for thunderstorm development mostly
offshore into the vicinity of southeastern coastal areas. Aided by
inflow of high moisture content air supportive of moderately large
CAPE, ongoing activity could still organize and intensify in the
presence of modest shear and southwesterly ambient deep-layer mean
flow up to around 20 kt.
..Kerr.. 05/24/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving clusters of thunderstorms will probably be
accompanied by strong to locally severe wind gusts while spreading
from the Texas Panhandle vicinity through western North Texas this
evening into the overnight hours.
...01z Update...
...Southern Great Plains...
Considerable thunderstorm development is generally slowly spreading
eastward after initiating along the dryline, roughly from near
Clovis, NM into the Midland vicinity. However, at least somewhat
more prominent convective development continues to evolve farther to
the north, after initiating off the higher terrain to the east of
Raton and portions of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This is
appearing to be aided by stronger, albeit still modest,
northwesterly shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies,
within otherwise quite weak westerly ambient deep-layer mean flow
around or less than 10 kt, which prevails across much of the
southern Great Plains.
CAPE is somewhat modest as well, generally on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg across the high plains, but the boundary-layer has become
deeply mixed, with surface temperature-dew point spreads around or
in excess of 30F. In the presence of the more favorable shear, the
northern cluster has already generated a notable southeastward
surging cold pool accompanied by strong to locally severe wind
gusts. It appears that this will continue southeastward across much
of the southern Texas Panhandle during the next few hours. More
uncertainty exists later as it begins to interact with the
convection spreading off the dryline, but at least some convection
allowing guidance suggests that an outflow boundary intersection
could become a focus for continuing thunderstorm development with
strong to severe gusts into portions of western North Texas late
this evening or overnight.
...Southeastern Louisiana coast...
Low severe wind probabilities are being maintained tonight, as an
outflow boundary remains a focus for thunderstorm development mostly
offshore into the vicinity of southeastern coastal areas. Aided by
inflow of high moisture content air supportive of moderately large
CAPE, ongoing activity could still organize and intensify in the
presence of modest shear and southwesterly ambient deep-layer mean
flow up to around 20 kt.
..Kerr.. 05/24/2026
Read more
WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW DHT TO
5 SW DHT TO 25 NNE DHT TO 5 NNE EHA.
..MEAD..05/24/26
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC139-240140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-117-125-129-153-179-189-191-195-
205-219-233-279-303-341-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-437-
240140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN
CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS
DONLEY FLOYD GRAY
HALE HALL HANSFORD
HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON
LAMB LUBBOCK MOORE
MOTLEY OCHILTREE OLDHAM
PARMER POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS SHERMAN SWISHER
Read more
WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/23/26
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC025-139-232340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-111-117-125-129-153-179-189-191-
195-205-219-233-279-303-341-345-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-437-
232340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN
CROSBY DALLAM DEAF SMITH
DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD
GRAY HALE HALL
HANSFORD HARTLEY HOCKLEY
HUTCHINSON LAMB LUBBOCK
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
OLDHAM PARMER POTTER
RANDALL ROBERTS SHERMAN
SWISHER
Read more
WW 242 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 232205Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
The western and central Oklahoma Panhandle
The Texas Panhandle and South Plains
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Storms forming in New Mexico will spread
east-southeastward into the Texas Panhandle through late evening
with potential to grow into one or more clusters with severe outflow
gusts (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in
diameter).
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northwest of
Guymon OK to 10 miles south southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 241...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
29020.
...Thompson
Read more
MD 0842 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
Mesoscale Discussion 0842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Areas affected...portions of northeastern new Mexico into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 232039Z - 232245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to
pose a risk for hail and some damaging winds into this evening. A WW
is possible.
DISCUSSION...Across portions of the southern High Plains, afternoon
satellite and radar imagery showed high-based convection
strengthening across the southern Raton mesa in northeastern NM and
southeastern CO. South of a broad upper trough and modestly enhanced
westerly flow aloft, weak upslope flow has resulted in modest
destabilization of the air mass so far this afternoon. Continued
warming will support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE amid steep low and
mid-level lapse rates (18z AMA sounding). 20-30 kt of deep-layer
flow on area VADs is supportive of a mixed mode of multicellular and
transient supercell structures.
Ongoing storms over NM/CO should continue east/southeastward with
gradual intensification as they encounter more buoyancy. Additional,
more isolated, storm development is possible along a subtle sfc
confluence axis across the central TX Panhandle. CAM guidance and
observational trends shows these storms intensifying, with an
associated increase in the severe risk through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the early evening.
Isolated large hail is possible initially, especially with any
longer-lived supercells. Some potential for severe wind gusts is
also possible given the steep low-level lapse rates. This threat
could increase further as a gradual clustering is expected during
the evening hours across southern portions of the TX Panhandle where
buoyancy is greater. With severe potential expected to increase, a
WW is possible over the next couple of hours.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33660275 34120314 34790350 35490357 36000356 36380333
36880256 36700107 35890050 35330019 34250025 33620060
33360094 33300216 33660275
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will dig into the western U.S. through much of
next week while a blocking ridge anchors over central CONUS. This
trough and associated increasing southwest flow will bring a fire
weather threat to portions of the Great Basin and Southwest through
at least Day 6/Thursday. A lower amplitude mid-level trough and
associated sub-tropical moisture entering the Southwest should
bring a dry thunderstorm threat to much of northeastern AZ and
western NM on Day 3/Monday, where fuels are more receptive to
ignitions.
...Day 3/Monday...
...Great Basin...
A deepening upper trough and robust mid-level jet enters the Pacific
Northwest Day 3/Monday, resulting in pronounced lee trough evolution
east of the Cascades. Stronger southwest winds of 15-25 mph are
expected across the northwestern Great Basin amid above normal
temperatures and low relative humidity. Recent fire activity
suggests fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. A 70%
critical probability area was introduced where corridor of enhanced
southwest winds and drier fuels are most likely to align.
...Southwest...
A mid-level shortwave with an accompanying subtropical moisture
plume will support high-based showers and thunderstorms for much of
northeastern AZ and western NM. Recent forecast guidance has trended
upward in precipitation amounts but fuels remain quite dry, with ERC
values hovering around the 90th percentile through this weekend.
Maintained 10% dry thunderstorm probability given receptive fuels
and ongoing fires on the landscape.
...Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday - Great Basin and Southwest...
As the upper trough becomes established across the western U.S.,
deep-layer southwesterly flow will sustain a fire weather threat for
portions of the Great Basin, Southwest and Four Corners regions
through midweek. However, the current 40% critical probability areas
may need to be adjusted in subsequent forecast updates if a more
expansive rainfall event unfolds Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday.
..Williams.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will dig into the western U.S. through much of
next week while a blocking ridge anchors over central CONUS. This
trough and associated increasing southwest flow will bring a fire
weather threat to portions of the Great Basin and Southwest through
at least Day 6/Thursday. A lower amplitude mid-level trough and
associated sub-tropical moisture entering the Southwest should
bring a dry thunderstorm threat to much of northeastern AZ and
western NM on Day 3/Monday, where fuels are more receptive to
ignitions.
...Day 3/Monday...
...Great Basin...
A deepening upper trough and robust mid-level jet enters the Pacific
Northwest Day 3/Monday, resulting in pronounced lee trough evolution
east of the Cascades. Stronger southwest winds of 15-25 mph are
expected across the northwestern Great Basin amid above normal
temperatures and low relative humidity. Recent fire activity
suggests fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. A 70%
critical probability area was introduced where corridor of enhanced
southwest winds and drier fuels are most likely to align.
...Southwest...
A mid-level shortwave with an accompanying subtropical moisture
plume will support high-based showers and thunderstorms for much of
northeastern AZ and western NM. Recent forecast guidance has trended
upward in precipitation amounts but fuels remain quite dry, with ERC
values hovering around the 90th percentile through this weekend.
Maintained 10% dry thunderstorm probability given receptive fuels
and ongoing fires on the landscape.
...Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday - Great Basin and Southwest...
As the upper trough becomes established across the western U.S.,
deep-layer southwesterly flow will sustain a fire weather threat for
portions of the Great Basin, Southwest and Four Corners regions
through midweek. However, the current 40% critical probability areas
may need to be adjusted in subsequent forecast updates if a more
expansive rainfall event unfolds Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday.
..Williams.. 05/23/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
