Storm Prediction Center

WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW CSM TO 30 ESE AMA TO 40 NW PVW TO 45 SSE CVS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504 ..THOMPSON..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC011-017-065-069-117-179-211-233-295-369-375-381-393-483- 050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY CARSON CASTRO DEAF SMITH GRAY HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LIPSCOMB PARMER POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 458 SEVERE TSTM TX 041850Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 458 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop in a hot and unstable air mass. The strongest cells through the early evening will pose a risk of damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 100 miles southwest of Amarillo TX to 100 miles east northeast of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 454...WW 455...WW 456...WW 457... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Hart Read more

MD 1500 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1500 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...West central/southwest Minnesota and northeast South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 042207Z - 042330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong outflow gusts possible through sunset, but the overall threat is expected to remain too marginal for a watch. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms are ongoing along a couple of outflow boundaries in MN, and along-southwest of a diffuse surface trough into northeast SD. Water vapor imagery shows a weak midlevel trough beginning to turn southeastward over northeast SD, which should support additional storm development through the evening into west central/southwest MN and northeast SD along the weak surface boundaries. Vertical shear is on the lower margins for organized/supercell storms in a moderately unstable environment, with sufficiently steep low-midlevel lapse rates for isolated large hail and strong outflow gusts. Since storm intensity and organization are unlikely to increase from what is observed now, a watch is likely not necessary. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 46349597 45989564 45749492 45979371 45779338 45539348 44899510 44489553 43969572 43919594 44829671 44939841 44949900 45259927 45779916 46089852 46089845 46019772 45749737 45609691 45739645 46249628 46349597 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1501 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459... FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN CONNECTICUT
Mesoscale Discussion 1501 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Pennsylvania into southern New York and western Connecticut Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459... Valid 042218Z - 050015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 459 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of higher severe wind potential may be emerging across parts of northeast Pennsylvania into southern New York over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR imagery shows steady cloud top cooling of convection near Scranton, PA and west of Albany, NY, hinting at gradual intensification. Regional VWPs from central/southern NY continue to show 30-40 knot mid-level flow over the region, which is supporting similar effective bulk shear values. This kinematic environment is favorable for maintenance of the ongoing convection and may promote further organization. Although regional buoyancy is not overly robust, a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE remains in place immediately downstream of these clusters where low-level lapse rates remain near 8 C/km after full diurnal heating. These thermodynamic conditions will also promote storm maintenance and facilitate cold pool development. Given the downstream thermodynamic/kinematic environment, some uptick in severe wind potential appears likely over the next couple of hours with either of these clusters. ..Moore.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40867371 41127560 41227591 41597589 41947561 42257528 42437499 42557474 42547449 42487413 41767272 41617256 41467262 41277278 41177295 41047334 40867371 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1502 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460... FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1502 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0534 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...North central and northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460... Valid 042234Z - 050000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460 continues. SUMMARY...Developing storm clusters will pose an increasing threat for severe outflow gusts of 80+ mph into this evening while spreading southeastward. DISCUSSION...Two storm clusters have developed - one near the outflow/front intersection in southern KS and another along the front in northwest OK. New storm development may also occur along the front between the two, with a larger cluster possibly evolving through late evening. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for supercells, especially along the residual outflow boundary in northern OK. The environment downstream from these clusters appears favorable for hybrid microbursts with deep inverted-V profiles and large buoyancy with hot surface temperatures and sufficient moisture to keep storms going into early tonight. Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for some cluster organization. As a result, the potential for severe outflow gusts is expected to increase through 00z in northwest and north central OK, where a few gusts could exceed 80 mph. Additionally, the strongest/embedded supercells will be capable of producing large hail in the 1.5-2.5 inch diameter range. ..Thompson.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36979713 36809647 36619636 36249622 36139678 36009733 35769826 35859874 36049890 36249883 36649812 36939756 36979713 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1503 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...459... FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 1503 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...The Mid-Atlantic region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457...459... Valid 042247Z - 050045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457, 459 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds continues across the greater Mid-Atlantic region. More focused corridors of higher wind risk may emerge across southeastern Pennsylvania into northern Maryland and across parts of central Virginia over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics continue to show multiple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms with embedded swaths of stronger winds. Most wind reports so far have been in the 35-55 mph range, but occasional severe gusts and multiple reports of wind damage have been noted over the past hour. Regional VWPs continue to sample relatively weak deep-layer wind shear that will maintain outflow-dominant mutli-cell and clustered storm modes through late evening. However, surface temperatures remain fairly hot (upper 90s to low 100s) with steep low-level lapse rates noted across northern MD into southeastern PA, and across parts of central VA where convective overturning has yet to occur. For the next few hours, the expectation is for a continuation of poorly-organized multi-cell clusters with sporadic swaths of damaging/severe winds across much of the region. The wind risk will most likely be focused across central/southern VA where conditions remain very hot and across east/southeast PA where multiple clusters may converge and promote an uptick in thunderstorm coverage later this evening. ..Moore.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37277934 38287852 39237802 39787805 40197820 40567816 40907774 41077678 41027598 40857542 40617497 40447482 40117480 37377708 37047742 36837785 36837820 36847861 36937893 37067920 37277934 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1504 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458... FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1504 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...The Texas Panhandle and South Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458... Valid 042255Z - 050000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and severe outflow gust threat will remain focused along a combined front/outflow across the Texas Panhandle, with the potential to clear the watch early into the South Plains. DISCUSSION...Storm development has remained confined to the surface front which has been reinforced by outflow across the TX Panhandle, immediately north-through-northeast of Amarillo. The richer low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy is confined to this same zone, where deep-layer northwesterly shear is allowing storms with supercell structure to develop west-southwestward along the boundary. Farther south, moisture and temperatures are reduced beneath substantial anvil shading from the convection in eastern NM. The potential for additional storm development into the South Plains appears questionable, and this portion of the watch could be cleared well before watch expiration. ..Thompson.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA... LAT...LON 35880139 36050070 36200019 35980007 35670048 35400110 35310161 35260201 35390220 35610225 35710200 35880139 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW SPI TO 30 NNE LAF. ..MOORE..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-029-041-045-115-139-147-183-050040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN COLES DOUGLAS EDGAR MACON MOULTRIE PIATT VERMILION INC011-023-045-057-063-097-107-121-133-157-165-171-050040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CLINTON FOUNTAIN HAMILTON HENDRICKS MARION MONTGOMERY PARKE PUTNAM TIPPECANOE VERMILLION WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 455 SEVERE TSTM IL IN LM 041735Z - 050000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 455 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Northwest Indiana Lake Michigan * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop across the watch area through the afternoon in a relatively hot and humid air mass. The strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Bloomington IL to 45 miles north northeast of Danville IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 454... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW GSO TO 25 NE LYH TO 20 NE SHD TO 45 ENE EKN TO 20 SSW MGW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503 ..MOORE..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...AKQ...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-050040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC001-003-005-009-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-033-037- 039-043-045-047-510-050040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS SOMERSET WASHINGTON WICOMICO WORCESTER Read more

WW 457 SEVERE TSTM DC MD VA WV CW 041815Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Virginia Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms will develop and spread across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening, in and hot and humid air mass. Damaging wind gusts are likely with the strongest storm clusters. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Martinsburg WV to 55 miles south southeast of Roanoke VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 454...WW 455...WW 456... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW FDY TO 35 NE CMH TO 40 WNW HLG TO 5 W PIT TO 20 SSE ERI. ..MOORE..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-021-023-031-041-049-059-065-067-081-089-091-097-109-111- 119-121-149-159-042340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CHAMPAIGN CLARK COSHOCTON DELAWARE FRANKLIN GUERNSEY HARDIN HARRISON JEFFERSON LICKING LOGAN MADISON MIAMI MONROE MUSKINGUM NOBLE SHELBY UNION PAC003-005-019-031-051-053-059-063-065-121-125-129-042340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BUTLER CLARION FAYETTE FOREST GREENE INDIANA JEFFERSON VENANGO WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND Read more

WW 456 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 041800Z - 050100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Ohio Western Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop across the watch area and spread southeastward through the afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Columbus OH to 15 miles north of Dubois PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 454...WW 455... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1499 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454... FOR EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1499 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into southern Illinois and adjacent portions of Kentucky and Indiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454... Valid 042156Z - 050000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for severe winds will likely spread east into southern Illinois in the coming hours as a loosely organized MCS exits eastern Missouri. However, the need for downstream watch issuance is uncertain due to a very modest kinematic environment. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KLSX shows a loosely organized, and predominantly outflow dominant, MCS pushing eastward across eastern MO and into far western IL. Wind gusts over the past hour have mostly been in the 30-50 mph range, but velocity imagery continues to show embedded swaths of stronger winds capable of producing wind damage. Downstream, clustered convection continues to percolate across southern IL within the regional buoyancy maximum. However, regional VWPs continue to show very limited flow through much of the column, which is resulting in outflow-dominant convection with limited intensities. Consequently, confidence is limited that the ongoing MCS will pose a substantial and/or widespread wind threat downstream as it moves into southern IL. Similarly, the potential for downstream watch issuance is uncertain. That said, the favorable buoyancy will likely promote continued development along the leading outflow boundary with the potential for transient and localized swaths of strong (to perhaps severe) downburst winds through mid/late evening. ..Moore.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 37439086 37879032 38369004 38809003 39019001 39168962 39258758 39088732 38828725 38458728 38108745 37708781 37358833 37268853 37439086 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE FKL TO 20 WSW MSV TO 30 SW ALB TO 25 SW EEN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500 ..MOORE..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...PHI...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC005-042340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD DEC001-003-005-042340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-029-035-041-042340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT Read more

WW 459 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ NY PA CW 041930Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Delaware Eastern Maryland New Jersey Central and Southeast New York Central and Eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon across the watch area, in a warm and unstable air mass. Locally damaging wind gusts and some hail are likely with the more intense cores. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of Dubois PA to 35 miles southeast of Monticello NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 454...WW 455...WW 456...WW 457...WW 458... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1496 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 042049Z - 042315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is expected between 22-00Z. The primary concerns will be severe wind gusts and large hail. DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery depicts an increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus field evolving at the nose of a robust heat axis extending into northwest OK. Additional deepening cumulus is evident along a remnant outflow boundary in south-central KS into northern OK. Over the next few hours, continued diurnal heating should promote thunderstorm development in these zones of mesoscale ascent. The pre-convective environment is characterized by a warm/moist PBL (lower 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by the DDC 18Z sounding). The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of effective shear (with modest low-level hodograph curvature) will initially promote semi-discrete supercells capable of producing severe wind gusts and very large hail. While uncertain, a tornado cannot be entirely ruled out with any boundary/storm interactions. With time, increasing storm coverage and congealing cold pools should promote upscale growth into organized clusters, with an increasing risk for scattered severe/damaging gusts with southward extent. A watch is likely this afternoon. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 35909567 35739628 35659703 35709801 35909890 36279943 36699957 36979945 37219919 37459835 37679589 37539539 37229511 36639504 36209520 35909567 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1498 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1498 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado into western and central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042113Z - 042215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Multiple instances of severe wind and hail will accompany the stronger and longer lasting storms, especially during their mature stage. A WW issuance may be needed pending greater storm coverage. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells and transient supercells have developed over the past couple of hours, with an instance of 2+ inch diameter hail recently reported in Keith County, NE. These storms are developing along a diffuse baroclinic boundary aligned from western NE into far northeastern CO, amid appreciable buoyancy (1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), but relatively poor vertical wind shear. Given the current shear profile, it is unclear how widespread and long-lasting any severe threat will be. Nonetheless, 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading the central High Plains, where storms are already present, suggests that a severe threat may persist through the afternoon/evening. As such, a WW issuance is possible if storms increase in coverage. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40990497 41230415 41280353 41410294 41910236 42360170 42710099 42710034 42380001 41979994 41410016 40870066 40470142 40210215 40120292 40080351 40060410 40250461 40990497 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1497 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 455... FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1497 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...northeast Illinois into western Indiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455... Valid 042051Z - 042215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455 continues. SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts remain possible from east-central Illinois into western Indiana. A new watch may not be needed depending on trends. DISCUSSION...Convection increased ahead of the MCV moving out of IA, but has generally moved slowly, producing heavy rain. The air mass across the region continues to heat and destabilize, and remains sufficient for at least localized severe wind gusts. Recent radar trends have shown some bowing storms, which may be capable of damaging gusts. Unless storms become better organized, an additional watch may not be needed downstream. ..Jewell.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 39958946 40708881 41388845 41738846 42038821 42078797 41698681 41108659 40168670 39828687 39528762 39428837 39718924 39958946 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0460 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 460 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-019-035-049-077-099-125-133-191-205-042340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK HARPER LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SUMNER WILSON OKC001-003-009-011-015-017-021-027-035-037-039-041-043-045-047- 051-053-059-063-071-073-081-083-087-091-093-097-101-103-105-107- 109-111-113-115-117-119-125-129-131-133-135-143-145-147-149-151- 153-042340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CRAIG CREEK CUSTER DELAWARE DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRADY GRANT HARPER HUGHES KAY KINGFISHER Read more