Storm Prediction Center

WW 0460 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 460 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 460 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-019-035-049-077-099-125-133-191-205-042340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK HARPER LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SUMNER WILSON OKC001-003-009-011-015-017-021-027-035-037-039-041-043-045-047- 051-053-059-063-071-073-081-083-087-091-093-097-101-103-105-107- 109-111-113-115-117-119-125-129-131-133-135-143-145-147-149-151- 153-042340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CRAIG CREEK CUSTER DELAWARE DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRADY GRANT HARPER HUGHES KAY KINGFISHER Read more

WW 460 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 042135Z - 050500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 460 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Kansas Northern and Central Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Robust thunderstorm development is underway across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Supercells will pose a threat for large to very large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. One or more intense bowing clusters will likely develop this evening and move southeastward across northern/central/eastern Oklahoma while posing a threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds. Isolated significant wind gusts up to 75-85 mph will be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Clinton OK to 55 miles east northeast of Tulsa OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 454...WW 455...WW 456...WW 457...WW 458...WW 459... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE TCC TO 40 SSW AMA TO 20 SSE AMA TO 10 WSW BGD. ..SQUITIERI..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC011-017-045-065-069-129-153-179-189-191-211-233-279-295-369- 393-437-483-042340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO DONLEY FLOYD GRAY HALE HALL HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LAMB LIPSCOMB PARMER ROBERTS SWISHER WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Upper-level heights will build over the greater Four Corners region and the Plains with a Four Corners high developing. Mid-level moisture will stream northward into the Intermountain West amid south-southwest flow aloft, with deeper moisture moving into southern Arizona and portions of New Mexico. An upper-level trough is expected to move into the northwest US mid-week, but there is uncertainty regarding its strength and timing. Additionally, the Four Corners high is likely to flatten and drift westward mid to late next week. A broad area of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is likely on Day 3/Monday stretching from Oregon to the Four Corners. PWAT values 0.5-0.9 with storm motions of 10-20 knots above a dry, deep sub-cloud layer are expected across this expansive area. Fuels are receptive, especially across the Four Corners states into central/eastern Nevada where ERC values are mostly at 90th-97th+ percentiles. The presence and timing of waves rotating through the southwest flow aloft and evolution of the mid-level moisture may require adjusting this area in subsequent outlooks. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely again on Day 4/Tuesday with a focus on the greater Four Corners region. The upper high will likely suppress convection in parts of the 10% area, but storms are likely to be wetter farther to the east and south of the high. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may develop over receptive fuels across portions of central/northeast Nevada into northern Utah. Dry and breezy conditions are likely Day 4/Tuesday across the Cascade Gaps extending into northeast California and northwest Nevada ahead of the upper-level trough moving into the Northwest. A 40% area was introduced to reflect these forecast conditions. Additional 40% areas were considered across portions of the Great Basin into the Four Corners Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday. However, the forecast uncertainty regarding the strength and track of the upper-level trough across the northwest US mid to late next week precluded introducing additional 40% areas. ..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Upper-level heights will build over the greater Four Corners region and the Plains with a Four Corners high developing. Mid-level moisture will stream northward into the Intermountain West amid south-southwest flow aloft, with deeper moisture moving into southern Arizona and portions of New Mexico. An upper-level trough is expected to move into the northwest US mid-week, but there is uncertainty regarding its strength and timing. Additionally, the Four Corners high is likely to flatten and drift westward mid to late next week. A broad area of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is likely on Day 3/Monday stretching from Oregon to the Four Corners. PWAT values 0.5-0.9 with storm motions of 10-20 knots above a dry, deep sub-cloud layer are expected across this expansive area. Fuels are receptive, especially across the Four Corners states into central/eastern Nevada where ERC values are mostly at 90th-97th+ percentiles. The presence and timing of waves rotating through the southwest flow aloft and evolution of the mid-level moisture may require adjusting this area in subsequent outlooks. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely again on Day 4/Tuesday with a focus on the greater Four Corners region. The upper high will likely suppress convection in parts of the 10% area, but storms are likely to be wetter farther to the east and south of the high. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may develop over receptive fuels across portions of central/northeast Nevada into northern Utah. Dry and breezy conditions are likely Day 4/Tuesday across the Cascade Gaps extending into northeast California and northwest Nevada ahead of the upper-level trough moving into the Northwest. A 40% area was introduced to reflect these forecast conditions. Additional 40% areas were considered across portions of the Great Basin into the Four Corners Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday. However, the forecast uncertainty regarding the strength and track of the upper-level trough across the northwest US mid to late next week precluded introducing additional 40% areas. ..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Upper-level heights will build over the greater Four Corners region and the Plains with a Four Corners high developing. Mid-level moisture will stream northward into the Intermountain West amid south-southwest flow aloft, with deeper moisture moving into southern Arizona and portions of New Mexico. An upper-level trough is expected to move into the northwest US mid-week, but there is uncertainty regarding its strength and timing. Additionally, the Four Corners high is likely to flatten and drift westward mid to late next week. A broad area of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is likely on Day 3/Monday stretching from Oregon to the Four Corners. PWAT values 0.5-0.9 with storm motions of 10-20 knots above a dry, deep sub-cloud layer are expected across this expansive area. Fuels are receptive, especially across the Four Corners states into central/eastern Nevada where ERC values are mostly at 90th-97th+ percentiles. The presence and timing of waves rotating through the southwest flow aloft and evolution of the mid-level moisture may require adjusting this area in subsequent outlooks. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely again on Day 4/Tuesday with a focus on the greater Four Corners region. The upper high will likely suppress convection in parts of the 10% area, but storms are likely to be wetter farther to the east and south of the high. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may develop over receptive fuels across portions of central/northeast Nevada into northern Utah. Dry and breezy conditions are likely Day 4/Tuesday across the Cascade Gaps extending into northeast California and northwest Nevada ahead of the upper-level trough moving into the Northwest. A 40% area was introduced to reflect these forecast conditions. Additional 40% areas were considered across portions of the Great Basin into the Four Corners Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday. However, the forecast uncertainty regarding the strength and track of the upper-level trough across the northwest US mid to late next week precluded introducing additional 40% areas. ..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Upper-level heights will build over the greater Four Corners region and the Plains with a Four Corners high developing. Mid-level moisture will stream northward into the Intermountain West amid south-southwest flow aloft, with deeper moisture moving into southern Arizona and portions of New Mexico. An upper-level trough is expected to move into the northwest US mid-week, but there is uncertainty regarding its strength and timing. Additionally, the Four Corners high is likely to flatten and drift westward mid to late next week. A broad area of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is likely on Day 3/Monday stretching from Oregon to the Four Corners. PWAT values 0.5-0.9 with storm motions of 10-20 knots above a dry, deep sub-cloud layer are expected across this expansive area. Fuels are receptive, especially across the Four Corners states into central/eastern Nevada where ERC values are mostly at 90th-97th+ percentiles. The presence and timing of waves rotating through the southwest flow aloft and evolution of the mid-level moisture may require adjusting this area in subsequent outlooks. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely again on Day 4/Tuesday with a focus on the greater Four Corners region. The upper high will likely suppress convection in parts of the 10% area, but storms are likely to be wetter farther to the east and south of the high. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may develop over receptive fuels across portions of central/northeast Nevada into northern Utah. Dry and breezy conditions are likely Day 4/Tuesday across the Cascade Gaps extending into northeast California and northwest Nevada ahead of the upper-level trough moving into the Northwest. A 40% area was introduced to reflect these forecast conditions. Additional 40% areas were considered across portions of the Great Basin into the Four Corners Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday. However, the forecast uncertainty regarding the strength and track of the upper-level trough across the northwest US mid to late next week precluded introducing additional 40% areas. ..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Upper-level heights will build over the greater Four Corners region and the Plains with a Four Corners high developing. Mid-level moisture will stream northward into the Intermountain West amid south-southwest flow aloft, with deeper moisture moving into southern Arizona and portions of New Mexico. An upper-level trough is expected to move into the northwest US mid-week, but there is uncertainty regarding its strength and timing. Additionally, the Four Corners high is likely to flatten and drift westward mid to late next week. A broad area of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms is likely on Day 3/Monday stretching from Oregon to the Four Corners. PWAT values 0.5-0.9 with storm motions of 10-20 knots above a dry, deep sub-cloud layer are expected across this expansive area. Fuels are receptive, especially across the Four Corners states into central/eastern Nevada where ERC values are mostly at 90th-97th+ percentiles. The presence and timing of waves rotating through the southwest flow aloft and evolution of the mid-level moisture may require adjusting this area in subsequent outlooks. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely again on Day 4/Tuesday with a focus on the greater Four Corners region. The upper high will likely suppress convection in parts of the 10% area, but storms are likely to be wetter farther to the east and south of the high. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms may develop over receptive fuels across portions of central/northeast Nevada into northern Utah. Dry and breezy conditions are likely Day 4/Tuesday across the Cascade Gaps extending into northeast California and northwest Nevada ahead of the upper-level trough moving into the Northwest. A 40% area was introduced to reflect these forecast conditions. Additional 40% areas were considered across portions of the Great Basin into the Four Corners Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday. However, the forecast uncertainty regarding the strength and track of the upper-level trough across the northwest US mid to late next week precluded introducing additional 40% areas. ..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0461 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0461 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0461 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0461 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 461 SEVERE TSTM NE 042155Z - 050400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 461 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercells should continue to pose some threat for large to very large hail late this afternoon and evening as they track slowly southeastward. Occasional severe/damaging downdraft winds may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Imperial NE to 30 miles south southeast of Oneill NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 454...WW 455...WW 456...WW 457...WW 458...WW 459...WW 460... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30020. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BFD TO 30 NW AVP TO 35 SSW UCA. ..SQUITIERI..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...PHI...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC005-042240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD DEC001-003-005-042240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-029-035-041-042240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N GSO TO 15 NNW SHD TO 35 SSW AOO. ..SQUITIERI..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...AKQ...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-042240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC001-003-005-009-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-033-037- 039-043-045-047-510-042240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS SOMERSET WASHINGTON WICOMICO WORCESTER MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW MFD TO 30 S MFD TO 20 SSE CAK TO 25 E CLE. ..SQUITIERI..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-021-023-029-031-033-041-049-059-065-067-081-083-089- 091-097-099-101-109-111-117-119-121-133-149-151-155-157-159-175- 042240- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL CHAMPAIGN CLARK COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CRAWFORD DELAWARE FRANKLIN GUERNSEY HARDIN HARRISON JEFFERSON KNOX LICKING LOGAN MADISON MAHONING MARION MIAMI MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE SHELBY STARK TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS UNION WYANDOT PAC003-005-007-019-031-039-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121-125- 129-042240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW SPI TO 20 NE BMI TO 50 SSW RAC. ..SQUITIERI..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-029-031-039-041-043-045-053-075-091-105-107-113-115-139- 147-183-197-042240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN COLES COOK DE WITT DOUGLAS DUPAGE EDGAR FORD IROQUOIS KANKAKEE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCLEAN MACON MOULTRIE PIATT VERMILION WILL INC007-045-073-089-111-121-127-165-171-042240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON FOUNTAIN JASPER LAKE NEWTON PARKE PORTER VERMILLION WARREN LMZ740-741-742-743-744-745-042240- Read more

WW 0454 Status Updates
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WW 0454 Status Updates
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WW 454 SEVERE TSTM MO 041720Z - 050000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 454 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will track eastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Knob Noster MO to 25 miles south of Jefferson City MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1494 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NY...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PA...AND NORTHERN NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 1494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...Portions of southern NY...north-central/northeast PA...and northern NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041905Z - 042130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increasing risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary concern is damaging wind gusts. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery indicates an east/west-oriented band of deepening boundary-layer cumulus across northern PA -- within a zone of broadly confluent low-level flow. Thunderstorms should continue increasing in coverage and intensity within this zone over the next few hours, given ample diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist air mass (upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints). Steepening low-level lapse rates and around 30-40 kt of unidirectional shear should promote several organized clusters capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. An additional focus for severe thunderstorms is evident downstream of Lake Ontario, where an MCV and related thunderstorms will continue eastward into the diurnally destabilizing air mass. These storms will also pose a risk of damaging wind gusts as they intercept the unstable air. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 42977639 42777539 42467446 42187406 41587395 40947431 40367544 40567693 40847778 41257819 41787840 42167828 42557787 42847717 42977639 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1495 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454... FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...central into eastern Missouri and far west-central Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454... Valid 041936Z - 042130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454 continues. SUMMARY...A small but long-lived storm/bow may continue to produce damaging winds from central Missouri toward the St. Louis vicinity this afternoon. DISCUSSION...An eastward-moving storm complex persists this afternoon, producing areas of wind damage from west-central into central MO. This bow is now moving along a confluence zone which can be seen in surface obs and also by virtue of an east-west corridor of enhanced CU and isolated leading convection. The environment remains quite unstable from MO into southern IL, and daytime heating continues. The bow has fluctuated in intensity at times, as outflow pushes ahead of the system. However, portions of this system may regenerate and continue to produce periodic wind damage as the outflow surge continues east. ..Jewell.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 37849095 37959289 38289272 38759299 39059039 38908985 38618967 38068976 37909002 37849095 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more