Storm Prediction Center

MD 1493 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH PLAINS...FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1493 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...parts of the Texas Panhandle into South Plains...far northwest Oklahoma...far east-central New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041820Z - 042115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms are likely to form before 21Z across the Texas Panhandle, and possibly extending into northwest Oklahoma and east-central New Mexico. Gusty winds will be likely, with a few gusts over 70 mph expected. Isolated marginal hail may occur as well. DISCUSSION...Strong heating persists within the surface trough, with towering CU already developing. Dewpoints are holding in the upper 50s to lower 60s F in some areas, with boundary-layer moisture quality confirmed by substantial CU between CDS and PVW. Modified forecast soundings show very steep lapse rates through a deep layer, which will conditionally support robust updrafts this afternoon. Shear is weak, however, veering winds with height may support a few short-duration, southward-moving cells. Substantial outflow production is expected as storms increase in number, with severe outflow of 60-70 mph likely in spots. Some of the stronger cores may briefly produce marginal hail as well. ..Jewell/Hart.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33990168 33400337 33630380 34060388 34270357 35160206 35800117 36739993 36699964 36439949 35059993 34510041 33990168 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC011-017-045-065-069-117-129-153-179-189-191-211-233-279-295- 369-375-381-393-437-483-042140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO DEAF SMITH DONLEY FLOYD GRAY HALE HALL HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON LAMB LIPSCOMB PARMER POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SWISHER WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0454 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 454 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW TBN TO 5 ESE TBN TO 10 W VIH TO JEF TO 40 N COU. ..JEWELL..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 454 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC119-133-157-163-042140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON MONROE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR MOC027-055-071-073-099-125-139-151-161-169-183-186-187-189-219- 221-510-042140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLAWAY CRAWFORD FRANKLIN GASCONADE JEFFERSON MARIES MONTGOMERY OSAGE PHELPS PULASKI ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS WARREN WASHINGTON MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will continue to move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are still expected across the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. ...20Z Update... A cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of measured 50+ kt gusts and wind damage, continues to rapidly propagate eastward across central MO. While deep-layer shear is quite modest over the Ozarks, a pronounced baroclinic boundary is draped across central MO into the St. Louis Metropolitan area. The MCS has likely maintained its intensity thus far by riding this boundary and ingesting some vorticity for bookend vortex and rear-inflow jet maintenance. It is unclear how long this MCS will remain strong/organized given the lack of ambient deep-layer shear. However. surface temperatures on the warm side of the boundary exceeding 90 F, amid mid 70s F dewpoints, is yielding a gradient of 2500-4500 J/kg SBCAPE, which should support some severe gust threat for this MCS for at least the next few hours. As such, 30 percent wind probabilities have been added ahead of the MCS. Guidance consensus, including early depictions from WoFS output, suggests that an MCS will quickly surge southeastward across portions of the southern Plains after initiating along the KS/OK border late this afternoon. The farther southeast initiation (given the current position of the surface outflow boundary left behind from the previous MCS), and southeastward surging potential, it appears that the greatest wind threat will exist into east-central OK. 30 percent/CIG1 wind probabilities have been extended into this region. Five percent hail probabilities have been added across portions of the lower Hudson Valley. Here, MRMS mosaic MESH data suggests that marginally severe hail may already be falling with the more robust storms over northern PA. Furthermore, stronger mid-level flow is grazing the lower Hudson Valley, contributing to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear amid 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which should be adequate to support a continued hail threat. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, including the potential for numerous damaging to occasionally severe gusts expected across portions of the Mid Atlantic into southern New England through the afternoon and evening hours. Mostly minor adjustments have been made to the remainder of the outlook to account for guidance consensus and observations. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/ ...Mid Atlantic... A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms. ...PA/NY into southern New England... A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US. Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. ..IL/IN... A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA, with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds as these storms organize and track into IN by evening. ...KS/MO... An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS. Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and into western AR this evening. ...TX Panhandle... A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a few hours. ...Northeast CO... Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the 40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe cells are possible with large hail being the main risk. ...MN/SD... Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will continue to move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are still expected across the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. ...20Z Update... A cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of measured 50+ kt gusts and wind damage, continues to rapidly propagate eastward across central MO. While deep-layer shear is quite modest over the Ozarks, a pronounced baroclinic boundary is draped across central MO into the St. Louis Metropolitan area. The MCS has likely maintained its intensity thus far by riding this boundary and ingesting some vorticity for bookend vortex and rear-inflow jet maintenance. It is unclear how long this MCS will remain strong/organized given the lack of ambient deep-layer shear. However. surface temperatures on the warm side of the boundary exceeding 90 F, amid mid 70s F dewpoints, is yielding a gradient of 2500-4500 J/kg SBCAPE, which should support some severe gust threat for this MCS for at least the next few hours. As such, 30 percent wind probabilities have been added ahead of the MCS. Guidance consensus, including early depictions from WoFS output, suggests that an MCS will quickly surge southeastward across portions of the southern Plains after initiating along the KS/OK border late this afternoon. The farther southeast initiation (given the current position of the surface outflow boundary left behind from the previous MCS), and southeastward surging potential, it appears that the greatest wind threat will exist into east-central OK. 30 percent/CIG1 wind probabilities have been extended into this region. Five percent hail probabilities have been added across portions of the lower Hudson Valley. Here, MRMS mosaic MESH data suggests that marginally severe hail may already be falling with the more robust storms over northern PA. Furthermore, stronger mid-level flow is grazing the lower Hudson Valley, contributing to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear amid 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which should be adequate to support a continued hail threat. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, including the potential for numerous damaging to occasionally severe gusts expected across portions of the Mid Atlantic into southern New England through the afternoon and evening hours. Mostly minor adjustments have been made to the remainder of the outlook to account for guidance consensus and observations. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/ ...Mid Atlantic... A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms. ...PA/NY into southern New England... A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US. Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. ..IL/IN... A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA, with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds as these storms organize and track into IN by evening. ...KS/MO... An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS. Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and into western AR this evening. ...TX Panhandle... A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a few hours. ...Northeast CO... Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the 40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe cells are possible with large hail being the main risk. ...MN/SD... Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will continue to move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are still expected across the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. ...20Z Update... A cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of measured 50+ kt gusts and wind damage, continues to rapidly propagate eastward across central MO. While deep-layer shear is quite modest over the Ozarks, a pronounced baroclinic boundary is draped across central MO into the St. Louis Metropolitan area. The MCS has likely maintained its intensity thus far by riding this boundary and ingesting some vorticity for bookend vortex and rear-inflow jet maintenance. It is unclear how long this MCS will remain strong/organized given the lack of ambient deep-layer shear. However. surface temperatures on the warm side of the boundary exceeding 90 F, amid mid 70s F dewpoints, is yielding a gradient of 2500-4500 J/kg SBCAPE, which should support some severe gust threat for this MCS for at least the next few hours. As such, 30 percent wind probabilities have been added ahead of the MCS. Guidance consensus, including early depictions from WoFS output, suggests that an MCS will quickly surge southeastward across portions of the southern Plains after initiating along the KS/OK border late this afternoon. The farther southeast initiation (given the current position of the surface outflow boundary left behind from the previous MCS), and southeastward surging potential, it appears that the greatest wind threat will exist into east-central OK. 30 percent/CIG1 wind probabilities have been extended into this region. Five percent hail probabilities have been added across portions of the lower Hudson Valley. Here, MRMS mosaic MESH data suggests that marginally severe hail may already be falling with the more robust storms over northern PA. Furthermore, stronger mid-level flow is grazing the lower Hudson Valley, contributing to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear amid 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which should be adequate to support a continued hail threat. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, including the potential for numerous damaging to occasionally severe gusts expected across portions of the Mid Atlantic into southern New England through the afternoon and evening hours. Mostly minor adjustments have been made to the remainder of the outlook to account for guidance consensus and observations. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/ ...Mid Atlantic... A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms. ...PA/NY into southern New England... A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US. Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. ..IL/IN... A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA, with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds as these storms organize and track into IN by evening. ...KS/MO... An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS. Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and into western AR this evening. ...TX Panhandle... A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a few hours. ...Northeast CO... Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the 40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe cells are possible with large hail being the main risk. ...MN/SD... Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will continue to move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are still expected across the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. ...20Z Update... A cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of measured 50+ kt gusts and wind damage, continues to rapidly propagate eastward across central MO. While deep-layer shear is quite modest over the Ozarks, a pronounced baroclinic boundary is draped across central MO into the St. Louis Metropolitan area. The MCS has likely maintained its intensity thus far by riding this boundary and ingesting some vorticity for bookend vortex and rear-inflow jet maintenance. It is unclear how long this MCS will remain strong/organized given the lack of ambient deep-layer shear. However. surface temperatures on the warm side of the boundary exceeding 90 F, amid mid 70s F dewpoints, is yielding a gradient of 2500-4500 J/kg SBCAPE, which should support some severe gust threat for this MCS for at least the next few hours. As such, 30 percent wind probabilities have been added ahead of the MCS. Guidance consensus, including early depictions from WoFS output, suggests that an MCS will quickly surge southeastward across portions of the southern Plains after initiating along the KS/OK border late this afternoon. The farther southeast initiation (given the current position of the surface outflow boundary left behind from the previous MCS), and southeastward surging potential, it appears that the greatest wind threat will exist into east-central OK. 30 percent/CIG1 wind probabilities have been extended into this region. Five percent hail probabilities have been added across portions of the lower Hudson Valley. Here, MRMS mosaic MESH data suggests that marginally severe hail may already be falling with the more robust storms over northern PA. Furthermore, stronger mid-level flow is grazing the lower Hudson Valley, contributing to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear amid 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which should be adequate to support a continued hail threat. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, including the potential for numerous damaging to occasionally severe gusts expected across portions of the Mid Atlantic into southern New England through the afternoon and evening hours. Mostly minor adjustments have been made to the remainder of the outlook to account for guidance consensus and observations. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/ ...Mid Atlantic... A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms. ...PA/NY into southern New England... A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US. Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. ..IL/IN... A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA, with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds as these storms organize and track into IN by evening. ...KS/MO... An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS. Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and into western AR this evening. ...TX Panhandle... A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a few hours. ...Northeast CO... Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the 40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe cells are possible with large hail being the main risk. ...MN/SD... Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will continue to move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are still expected across the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. ...20Z Update... A cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of measured 50+ kt gusts and wind damage, continues to rapidly propagate eastward across central MO. While deep-layer shear is quite modest over the Ozarks, a pronounced baroclinic boundary is draped across central MO into the St. Louis Metropolitan area. The MCS has likely maintained its intensity thus far by riding this boundary and ingesting some vorticity for bookend vortex and rear-inflow jet maintenance. It is unclear how long this MCS will remain strong/organized given the lack of ambient deep-layer shear. However. surface temperatures on the warm side of the boundary exceeding 90 F, amid mid 70s F dewpoints, is yielding a gradient of 2500-4500 J/kg SBCAPE, which should support some severe gust threat for this MCS for at least the next few hours. As such, 30 percent wind probabilities have been added ahead of the MCS. Guidance consensus, including early depictions from WoFS output, suggests that an MCS will quickly surge southeastward across portions of the southern Plains after initiating along the KS/OK border late this afternoon. The farther southeast initiation (given the current position of the surface outflow boundary left behind from the previous MCS), and southeastward surging potential, it appears that the greatest wind threat will exist into east-central OK. 30 percent/CIG1 wind probabilities have been extended into this region. Five percent hail probabilities have been added across portions of the lower Hudson Valley. Here, MRMS mosaic MESH data suggests that marginally severe hail may already be falling with the more robust storms over northern PA. Furthermore, stronger mid-level flow is grazing the lower Hudson Valley, contributing to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear amid 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which should be adequate to support a continued hail threat. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, including the potential for numerous damaging to occasionally severe gusts expected across portions of the Mid Atlantic into southern New England through the afternoon and evening hours. Mostly minor adjustments have been made to the remainder of the outlook to account for guidance consensus and observations. ..Squitieri.. 07/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/ ...Mid Atlantic... A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms. ...PA/NY into southern New England... A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US. Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. ..IL/IN... A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA, with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds as these storms organize and track into IN by evening. ...KS/MO... An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS. Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and into western AR this evening. ...TX Panhandle... A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a few hours. ...Northeast CO... Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the 40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe cells are possible with large hail being the main risk. ...MN/SD... Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty winds. Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PIA TO 35 N PIA TO 25 NNW MMO TO 30 ESE RFD. ..JEWELL..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-019-029-031-039-041-043-045-053-063-075-089-091-093-099- 105-107-113-115-123-139-143-147-155-175-179-183-197-203- 042040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU CHAMPAIGN COLES COOK DE WITT DOUGLAS DUPAGE EDGAR FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LA SALLE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCLEAN MACON MARSHALL MOULTRIE PEORIA PIATT PUTNAM STARK TAZEWELL VERMILION WILL WOODFORD INC007-045-073-089-111-121-127-165-171-042040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON FOUNTAIN JASPER Read more

WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0459 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z The IsoDryT area was expanded across portions of northeast California, northwest Nevada, and into southwest Idaho. An upper-level shortwave trough, currently off the coast of southern California, is forecast to track northward across California and into the northwest Great Basin over the next 36 hours. This will bring moisture and forcing for ascent aloft, which will help develop isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms across portions of northern California, northwest Nevada, southern/eastern Oregon, and southwest Idaho. High-based shallow convective showers will track north across central/northern California and northwest Nevada during the day, with thunderstorm development likely starting in the afternoon and continuing through the evening and possibly overnight. ERCs are generally below average for this time of year, but field reports indicate increasing fuel receptiveness and initial attack. Isolated to perhaps scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of central/southern Colorado, most likely along and east of the southern Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. There is potential for thunderstorms to develop west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and along the eastern San Juans into the Sawatch Range. An IsoDryT area was not introduced given the potential limited corridor of drier storms and uncertainty regarding development and coverage. However, any storm that does develop west of the I-25 corridor, will be over near to record dry fuels. Additionally, deep pyroconvection over active large wildfires in the vicinity of this area is possible. ..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will primarily be driven by dry thunderstorm potential on Sunday. While confidence in dry thunderstorms is greatest across portions of the Pacific Northwest, more isolated concerns may emerge across eastern Arizona into southwest New Mexico. ...Pacific Northwest... Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Guidance continues to show fairly good agreement in the northward propagation of a shortwave trough across northern CA into southern OR on the western periphery of the upper ridge through the day. A subtle influx of Pacific moisture ahead of the wave coupled with mid-level ascent/cooling will likely support isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into southeast OR and perhaps far northwest NV. Slow storm motions may allow for pockets of wetting rainfall, but fairly dry low-level conditions and PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches will support dry lightning strikes, especially away from the heavier cores. Based on information from local offices, fuels across the region are generally receptive and should support lightning ignitions. Dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to address this concern. ...Eastern Arizona/Southwest New Mexico... A modest influx of mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California into eastern AZ/western NM is anticipated through the day Sunday. Some recent model solutions hint that this moisture will provide sufficient buoyancy for very weak convection by late afternoon when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized. Very weak forcing for ascent under the upper ridge suggests that any thunderstorm potential will most likely be tied to orographic ascent along the eastern Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region. While confidence in thunderstorm development is limited based on the synoptic regime and somewhat limited signal in CAM guidance, the potential for dry thunderstorms over a receptive fuel landscape is highlighted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z The IsoDryT area was expanded across portions of northeast California, northwest Nevada, and into southwest Idaho. An upper-level shortwave trough, currently off the coast of southern California, is forecast to track northward across California and into the northwest Great Basin over the next 36 hours. This will bring moisture and forcing for ascent aloft, which will help develop isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms across portions of northern California, northwest Nevada, southern/eastern Oregon, and southwest Idaho. High-based shallow convective showers will track north across central/northern California and northwest Nevada during the day, with thunderstorm development likely starting in the afternoon and continuing through the evening and possibly overnight. ERCs are generally below average for this time of year, but field reports indicate increasing fuel receptiveness and initial attack. Isolated to perhaps scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of central/southern Colorado, most likely along and east of the southern Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. There is potential for thunderstorms to develop west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and along the eastern San Juans into the Sawatch Range. An IsoDryT area was not introduced given the potential limited corridor of drier storms and uncertainty regarding development and coverage. However, any storm that does develop west of the I-25 corridor, will be over near to record dry fuels. Additionally, deep pyroconvection over active large wildfires in the vicinity of this area is possible. ..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will primarily be driven by dry thunderstorm potential on Sunday. While confidence in dry thunderstorms is greatest across portions of the Pacific Northwest, more isolated concerns may emerge across eastern Arizona into southwest New Mexico. ...Pacific Northwest... Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Guidance continues to show fairly good agreement in the northward propagation of a shortwave trough across northern CA into southern OR on the western periphery of the upper ridge through the day. A subtle influx of Pacific moisture ahead of the wave coupled with mid-level ascent/cooling will likely support isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into southeast OR and perhaps far northwest NV. Slow storm motions may allow for pockets of wetting rainfall, but fairly dry low-level conditions and PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches will support dry lightning strikes, especially away from the heavier cores. Based on information from local offices, fuels across the region are generally receptive and should support lightning ignitions. Dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to address this concern. ...Eastern Arizona/Southwest New Mexico... A modest influx of mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California into eastern AZ/western NM is anticipated through the day Sunday. Some recent model solutions hint that this moisture will provide sufficient buoyancy for very weak convection by late afternoon when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized. Very weak forcing for ascent under the upper ridge suggests that any thunderstorm potential will most likely be tied to orographic ascent along the eastern Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region. While confidence in thunderstorm development is limited based on the synoptic regime and somewhat limited signal in CAM guidance, the potential for dry thunderstorms over a receptive fuel landscape is highlighted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z The IsoDryT area was expanded across portions of northeast California, northwest Nevada, and into southwest Idaho. An upper-level shortwave trough, currently off the coast of southern California, is forecast to track northward across California and into the northwest Great Basin over the next 36 hours. This will bring moisture and forcing for ascent aloft, which will help develop isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms across portions of northern California, northwest Nevada, southern/eastern Oregon, and southwest Idaho. High-based shallow convective showers will track north across central/northern California and northwest Nevada during the day, with thunderstorm development likely starting in the afternoon and continuing through the evening and possibly overnight. ERCs are generally below average for this time of year, but field reports indicate increasing fuel receptiveness and initial attack. Isolated to perhaps scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of central/southern Colorado, most likely along and east of the southern Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. There is potential for thunderstorms to develop west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and along the eastern San Juans into the Sawatch Range. An IsoDryT area was not introduced given the potential limited corridor of drier storms and uncertainty regarding development and coverage. However, any storm that does develop west of the I-25 corridor, will be over near to record dry fuels. Additionally, deep pyroconvection over active large wildfires in the vicinity of this area is possible. ..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will primarily be driven by dry thunderstorm potential on Sunday. While confidence in dry thunderstorms is greatest across portions of the Pacific Northwest, more isolated concerns may emerge across eastern Arizona into southwest New Mexico. ...Pacific Northwest... Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Guidance continues to show fairly good agreement in the northward propagation of a shortwave trough across northern CA into southern OR on the western periphery of the upper ridge through the day. A subtle influx of Pacific moisture ahead of the wave coupled with mid-level ascent/cooling will likely support isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into southeast OR and perhaps far northwest NV. Slow storm motions may allow for pockets of wetting rainfall, but fairly dry low-level conditions and PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches will support dry lightning strikes, especially away from the heavier cores. Based on information from local offices, fuels across the region are generally receptive and should support lightning ignitions. Dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to address this concern. ...Eastern Arizona/Southwest New Mexico... A modest influx of mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California into eastern AZ/western NM is anticipated through the day Sunday. Some recent model solutions hint that this moisture will provide sufficient buoyancy for very weak convection by late afternoon when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized. Very weak forcing for ascent under the upper ridge suggests that any thunderstorm potential will most likely be tied to orographic ascent along the eastern Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region. While confidence in thunderstorm development is limited based on the synoptic regime and somewhat limited signal in CAM guidance, the potential for dry thunderstorms over a receptive fuel landscape is highlighted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z The IsoDryT area was expanded across portions of northeast California, northwest Nevada, and into southwest Idaho. An upper-level shortwave trough, currently off the coast of southern California, is forecast to track northward across California and into the northwest Great Basin over the next 36 hours. This will bring moisture and forcing for ascent aloft, which will help develop isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms across portions of northern California, northwest Nevada, southern/eastern Oregon, and southwest Idaho. High-based shallow convective showers will track north across central/northern California and northwest Nevada during the day, with thunderstorm development likely starting in the afternoon and continuing through the evening and possibly overnight. ERCs are generally below average for this time of year, but field reports indicate increasing fuel receptiveness and initial attack. Isolated to perhaps scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of central/southern Colorado, most likely along and east of the southern Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. There is potential for thunderstorms to develop west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and along the eastern San Juans into the Sawatch Range. An IsoDryT area was not introduced given the potential limited corridor of drier storms and uncertainty regarding development and coverage. However, any storm that does develop west of the I-25 corridor, will be over near to record dry fuels. Additionally, deep pyroconvection over active large wildfires in the vicinity of this area is possible. ..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will primarily be driven by dry thunderstorm potential on Sunday. While confidence in dry thunderstorms is greatest across portions of the Pacific Northwest, more isolated concerns may emerge across eastern Arizona into southwest New Mexico. ...Pacific Northwest... Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Guidance continues to show fairly good agreement in the northward propagation of a shortwave trough across northern CA into southern OR on the western periphery of the upper ridge through the day. A subtle influx of Pacific moisture ahead of the wave coupled with mid-level ascent/cooling will likely support isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into southeast OR and perhaps far northwest NV. Slow storm motions may allow for pockets of wetting rainfall, but fairly dry low-level conditions and PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches will support dry lightning strikes, especially away from the heavier cores. Based on information from local offices, fuels across the region are generally receptive and should support lightning ignitions. Dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to address this concern. ...Eastern Arizona/Southwest New Mexico... A modest influx of mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California into eastern AZ/western NM is anticipated through the day Sunday. Some recent model solutions hint that this moisture will provide sufficient buoyancy for very weak convection by late afternoon when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized. Very weak forcing for ascent under the upper ridge suggests that any thunderstorm potential will most likely be tied to orographic ascent along the eastern Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region. While confidence in thunderstorm development is limited based on the synoptic regime and somewhat limited signal in CAM guidance, the potential for dry thunderstorms over a receptive fuel landscape is highlighted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1492 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL PA...EASTERN/CENTRAL OH...AND FAR NORTHERN WV
Mesoscale Discussion 1492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...Parts of western/central PA...eastern/central OH...and far northern WV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041736Z - 042000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk of severe thunderstorms capable of producing widely scattered wind damage will increase over the next few hours. A watch is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening along a lake breeze boundary southeast of Lake Erie, and within a zone of broadly confluent low-level flow extending into central OH. Continued diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will support widely scattered thunderstorm development in these zones of mesoscale ascent over the next few hours, given an uncapped air mass. While around 20 kt of effective shear will limit thunderstorm organization, steep low/mid-level lapse rates (sampled by earlier 12Z soundings) and increasing deep-layer moisture will promote scattered damaging wind gusts with loosely organized clusters and cells. A watch is likely for parts of the area this afternoon. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 39887812 39737931 39748071 39708200 39698296 39968361 40368365 40668338 41238166 41688021 41907891 41917818 41587755 41037735 40407760 39887812 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1490 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1490 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...north-central Illinois into Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041624Z - 041930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms is expected to develop after 18Z over central and north-central Illinois, moving into Indiana later this afternoon. Damaging gusts will be possible. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and surface observations show a low and MCV moving out of eastern IA into northern IL. Analyzed streamlines show substantial convergence into northwest IL currently, with modest southerly winds ahead of this feature aiding warming/destabilization. Cooler air exists over southeast WI and northeast IL, but areas of heating and gradual warm advection may allow destabilization close to parts of the Chicago metro area. The 12Z ILX sounding shows high PWAT over 1.75", along with 25-35 kt midlevel westerlies. Overall storm motions will be toward the east, with a tendency for southeastward propagation. This could bring wind potential toward the Indianapolis area during the early evening. ..Jewell/Hart.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 40118965 40489010 41258940 41948909 41818777 41698682 40928653 40398654 39788684 39608762 39618768 40118965 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1491 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
Mesoscale Discussion 1491 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...Much of Virginia...Maryland...and eastern West Virginia, Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 041649Z - 041915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity while developing eastward through the afternoon. The primary concern will be scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving along the high terrain in WV and southwestern VA this afternoon. Continued diurnal heating and orographic lift will favor increasing thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Downstream, strong diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist air mass (upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by 12Z soundings) will support thunderstorm intensification through the afternoon. While fairly weak deep-layer shear may limit overall thunderstorm organization, the aforementioned environment will favor a mix of cells and loosely organized clusters capable of producing scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts across much of VA and eventually into MD. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely for this activity. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37548059 38018032 39057934 39427883 39597832 39647744 39547686 39357649 38907637 38057671 37237763 36667909 36688013 37028055 37548059 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA...AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and the northern Plains. ...VA/NC vicinity... Upper troughing over the Midwest will continue to slowly shift east toward the Appalachians on Monday. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity as a surface low develops in the vicinity of WV. A surface boundary/cold front will sag southward across PA while surface troughing develops in the lee of the VA/NC mountains. A very moist airmass will persist and moderate destabilization is forecast. Thunderstorm clusters will once again develop and pose a risk for sporadic wind damage Monday afternoon into early evening. ...Northern Plains into northwest MN... An upper shortwave trough will move east across the Canadian Prairies, glancing the U.S. northern Plains vicinity. This will bring a band of enhance mid/upper westerly flow across the region while a surface cold front develops southeast through the afternoon and nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints northward ahead of the front beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization. It is uncertain how far south convection may develop as large-scale ascent weakens into South Dakota and capping increases. However, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, and where storms do develop, an accompanying risk for severe gusts and large hail is possible. An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage increases. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA...AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and the northern Plains. ...VA/NC vicinity... Upper troughing over the Midwest will continue to slowly shift east toward the Appalachians on Monday. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity as a surface low develops in the vicinity of WV. A surface boundary/cold front will sag southward across PA while surface troughing develops in the lee of the VA/NC mountains. A very moist airmass will persist and moderate destabilization is forecast. Thunderstorm clusters will once again develop and pose a risk for sporadic wind damage Monday afternoon into early evening. ...Northern Plains into northwest MN... An upper shortwave trough will move east across the Canadian Prairies, glancing the U.S. northern Plains vicinity. This will bring a band of enhance mid/upper westerly flow across the region while a surface cold front develops southeast through the afternoon and nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints northward ahead of the front beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization. It is uncertain how far south convection may develop as large-scale ascent weakens into South Dakota and capping increases. However, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, and where storms do develop, an accompanying risk for severe gusts and large hail is possible. An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage increases. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA...AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and the northern Plains. ...VA/NC vicinity... Upper troughing over the Midwest will continue to slowly shift east toward the Appalachians on Monday. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity as a surface low develops in the vicinity of WV. A surface boundary/cold front will sag southward across PA while surface troughing develops in the lee of the VA/NC mountains. A very moist airmass will persist and moderate destabilization is forecast. Thunderstorm clusters will once again develop and pose a risk for sporadic wind damage Monday afternoon into early evening. ...Northern Plains into northwest MN... An upper shortwave trough will move east across the Canadian Prairies, glancing the U.S. northern Plains vicinity. This will bring a band of enhance mid/upper westerly flow across the region while a surface cold front develops southeast through the afternoon and nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints northward ahead of the front beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization. It is uncertain how far south convection may develop as large-scale ascent weakens into South Dakota and capping increases. However, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, and where storms do develop, an accompanying risk for severe gusts and large hail is possible. An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage increases. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2026 Read more