Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA...AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and the northern Plains. ...VA/NC vicinity... Upper troughing over the Midwest will continue to slowly shift east toward the Appalachians on Monday. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity as a surface low develops in the vicinity of WV. A surface boundary/cold front will sag southward across PA while surface troughing develops in the lee of the VA/NC mountains. A very moist airmass will persist and moderate destabilization is forecast. Thunderstorm clusters will once again develop and pose a risk for sporadic wind damage Monday afternoon into early evening. ...Northern Plains into northwest MN... An upper shortwave trough will move east across the Canadian Prairies, glancing the U.S. northern Plains vicinity. This will bring a band of enhance mid/upper westerly flow across the region while a surface cold front develops southeast through the afternoon and nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints northward ahead of the front beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization. It is uncertain how far south convection may develop as large-scale ascent weakens into South Dakota and capping increases. However, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, and where storms do develop, an accompanying risk for severe gusts and large hail is possible. An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage increases. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA...AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and the northern Plains. ...VA/NC vicinity... Upper troughing over the Midwest will continue to slowly shift east toward the Appalachians on Monday. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic vicinity as a surface low develops in the vicinity of WV. A surface boundary/cold front will sag southward across PA while surface troughing develops in the lee of the VA/NC mountains. A very moist airmass will persist and moderate destabilization is forecast. Thunderstorm clusters will once again develop and pose a risk for sporadic wind damage Monday afternoon into early evening. ...Northern Plains into northwest MN... An upper shortwave trough will move east across the Canadian Prairies, glancing the U.S. northern Plains vicinity. This will bring a band of enhance mid/upper westerly flow across the region while a surface cold front develops southeast through the afternoon and nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints northward ahead of the front beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong destabilization. It is uncertain how far south convection may develop as large-scale ascent weakens into South Dakota and capping increases. However, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, and where storms do develop, an accompanying risk for severe gusts and large hail is possible. An upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in storm coverage increases. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2026 Read more

WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0458 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0457 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0457 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0456 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0456 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0455 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0454 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0454 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms also are possible across Montana and western North Dakota, and portions of the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic... A weak surface low is forecast to move west to east along a sagging cold front/baroclinic zone draped across PA into northern NJ/southeast NY on Sunday/Sunday evening. Meanwhile, lee troughing will develop across VA. A hot and very moist airmass will reside near and south of these boundaries, which will serve as a focus for severe storm development during the afternoon and into evening. Southwesterly flow aloft will weaken through the day as an upper shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region, but around 20-30 kt mid/upper-level flow will persist. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected and thunderstorm clusters are expected by early to mid-afternoon. Sufficient clustering could occur along the southward-sagging cold front and one or more forward propagating clusters will be possible from northern VA into southeast PA until storms move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening. Sufficient consistency among deterministic/CAMs and AI/ML guidance exists regarding storm coverage to warrant an upgrade to 30 percent wind probabilities for portions of the region. ...Southern Plains to TN Valley... An remnant/weakening MCS is expected to be located over OK or AR Sunday morning. An MCV related to this feature will progress eastward toward the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity through the day. Further south and west near the Red River Valley/North Texas into the southern High Plains, outflow associated with the late-Day 1/Saturday into early Day 2/Sunday MCS may arc across this region. Differential heating could occur along this boundary, providing support for redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be modest with westward extent into the High Plains, but steep lapse rates aloft, and increasing moisture with eastward extent into the Lower MS Valley will support a corridor of moderate instability in the vicinity of the surface boundary. Northwesterly flow aloft will also modestly strengthen through the day, fostering weak, but perhaps sufficient vertical shear for transient organized cells/clusters along the boundary. Further east, the MCV will locally enhance vertical shear amid a very moist and moderately unstable airmass. This could foster potential for one or more forward propagating storm clusters, and some risk for damaging gusts from wet microbursts, leading to a broad expansion of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across parts of the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity. ...Northern Rockies into North Dakota... West/southwest flow aloft will strengthen across MT into ND as an upper shortwave trough moving across western Canada glances northern portions of the U.S. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will stretch from the northern Great Basin through southern/eastern MT into the western Dakotas. Low-level moisture will not be impressive, but the steep lapse rates aloft will support a corridor of modest destabilization across MT, and somewhat greater across western ND where boundary-layer moisture will be marginally better along a surface trough. Vertically veering wind profiles, with increasing speeds above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt, and organized storms are possible. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be the main hazards with these storms during the afternoon into evening. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms also are possible across Montana and western North Dakota, and portions of the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic... A weak surface low is forecast to move west to east along a sagging cold front/baroclinic zone draped across PA into northern NJ/southeast NY on Sunday/Sunday evening. Meanwhile, lee troughing will develop across VA. A hot and very moist airmass will reside near and south of these boundaries, which will serve as a focus for severe storm development during the afternoon and into evening. Southwesterly flow aloft will weaken through the day as an upper shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region, but around 20-30 kt mid/upper-level flow will persist. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected and thunderstorm clusters are expected by early to mid-afternoon. Sufficient clustering could occur along the southward-sagging cold front and one or more forward propagating clusters will be possible from northern VA into southeast PA until storms move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening. Sufficient consistency among deterministic/CAMs and AI/ML guidance exists regarding storm coverage to warrant an upgrade to 30 percent wind probabilities for portions of the region. ...Southern Plains to TN Valley... An remnant/weakening MCS is expected to be located over OK or AR Sunday morning. An MCV related to this feature will progress eastward toward the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity through the day. Further south and west near the Red River Valley/North Texas into the southern High Plains, outflow associated with the late-Day 1/Saturday into early Day 2/Sunday MCS may arc across this region. Differential heating could occur along this boundary, providing support for redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be modest with westward extent into the High Plains, but steep lapse rates aloft, and increasing moisture with eastward extent into the Lower MS Valley will support a corridor of moderate instability in the vicinity of the surface boundary. Northwesterly flow aloft will also modestly strengthen through the day, fostering weak, but perhaps sufficient vertical shear for transient organized cells/clusters along the boundary. Further east, the MCV will locally enhance vertical shear amid a very moist and moderately unstable airmass. This could foster potential for one or more forward propagating storm clusters, and some risk for damaging gusts from wet microbursts, leading to a broad expansion of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across parts of the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity. ...Northern Rockies into North Dakota... West/southwest flow aloft will strengthen across MT into ND as an upper shortwave trough moving across western Canada glances northern portions of the U.S. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will stretch from the northern Great Basin through southern/eastern MT into the western Dakotas. Low-level moisture will not be impressive, but the steep lapse rates aloft will support a corridor of modest destabilization across MT, and somewhat greater across western ND where boundary-layer moisture will be marginally better along a surface trough. Vertically veering wind profiles, with increasing speeds above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt, and organized storms are possible. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be the main hazards with these storms during the afternoon into evening. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms also are possible across Montana and western North Dakota, and portions of the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic... A weak surface low is forecast to move west to east along a sagging cold front/baroclinic zone draped across PA into northern NJ/southeast NY on Sunday/Sunday evening. Meanwhile, lee troughing will develop across VA. A hot and very moist airmass will reside near and south of these boundaries, which will serve as a focus for severe storm development during the afternoon and into evening. Southwesterly flow aloft will weaken through the day as an upper shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region, but around 20-30 kt mid/upper-level flow will persist. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected and thunderstorm clusters are expected by early to mid-afternoon. Sufficient clustering could occur along the southward-sagging cold front and one or more forward propagating clusters will be possible from northern VA into southeast PA until storms move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening. Sufficient consistency among deterministic/CAMs and AI/ML guidance exists regarding storm coverage to warrant an upgrade to 30 percent wind probabilities for portions of the region. ...Southern Plains to TN Valley... An remnant/weakening MCS is expected to be located over OK or AR Sunday morning. An MCV related to this feature will progress eastward toward the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity through the day. Further south and west near the Red River Valley/North Texas into the southern High Plains, outflow associated with the late-Day 1/Saturday into early Day 2/Sunday MCS may arc across this region. Differential heating could occur along this boundary, providing support for redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be modest with westward extent into the High Plains, but steep lapse rates aloft, and increasing moisture with eastward extent into the Lower MS Valley will support a corridor of moderate instability in the vicinity of the surface boundary. Northwesterly flow aloft will also modestly strengthen through the day, fostering weak, but perhaps sufficient vertical shear for transient organized cells/clusters along the boundary. Further east, the MCV will locally enhance vertical shear amid a very moist and moderately unstable airmass. This could foster potential for one or more forward propagating storm clusters, and some risk for damaging gusts from wet microbursts, leading to a broad expansion of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across parts of the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity. ...Northern Rockies into North Dakota... West/southwest flow aloft will strengthen across MT into ND as an upper shortwave trough moving across western Canada glances northern portions of the U.S. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will stretch from the northern Great Basin through southern/eastern MT into the western Dakotas. Low-level moisture will not be impressive, but the steep lapse rates aloft will support a corridor of modest destabilization across MT, and somewhat greater across western ND where boundary-layer moisture will be marginally better along a surface trough. Vertically veering wind profiles, with increasing speeds above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt, and organized storms are possible. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be the main hazards with these storms during the afternoon into evening. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms also are possible across Montana and western North Dakota, and portions of the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic... A weak surface low is forecast to move west to east along a sagging cold front/baroclinic zone draped across PA into northern NJ/southeast NY on Sunday/Sunday evening. Meanwhile, lee troughing will develop across VA. A hot and very moist airmass will reside near and south of these boundaries, which will serve as a focus for severe storm development during the afternoon and into evening. Southwesterly flow aloft will weaken through the day as an upper shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region, but around 20-30 kt mid/upper-level flow will persist. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected and thunderstorm clusters are expected by early to mid-afternoon. Sufficient clustering could occur along the southward-sagging cold front and one or more forward propagating clusters will be possible from northern VA into southeast PA until storms move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening. Sufficient consistency among deterministic/CAMs and AI/ML guidance exists regarding storm coverage to warrant an upgrade to 30 percent wind probabilities for portions of the region. ...Southern Plains to TN Valley... An remnant/weakening MCS is expected to be located over OK or AR Sunday morning. An MCV related to this feature will progress eastward toward the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity through the day. Further south and west near the Red River Valley/North Texas into the southern High Plains, outflow associated with the late-Day 1/Saturday into early Day 2/Sunday MCS may arc across this region. Differential heating could occur along this boundary, providing support for redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be modest with westward extent into the High Plains, but steep lapse rates aloft, and increasing moisture with eastward extent into the Lower MS Valley will support a corridor of moderate instability in the vicinity of the surface boundary. Northwesterly flow aloft will also modestly strengthen through the day, fostering weak, but perhaps sufficient vertical shear for transient organized cells/clusters along the boundary. Further east, the MCV will locally enhance vertical shear amid a very moist and moderately unstable airmass. This could foster potential for one or more forward propagating storm clusters, and some risk for damaging gusts from wet microbursts, leading to a broad expansion of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across parts of the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity. ...Northern Rockies into North Dakota... West/southwest flow aloft will strengthen across MT into ND as an upper shortwave trough moving across western Canada glances northern portions of the U.S. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will stretch from the northern Great Basin through southern/eastern MT into the western Dakotas. Low-level moisture will not be impressive, but the steep lapse rates aloft will support a corridor of modest destabilization across MT, and somewhat greater across western ND where boundary-layer moisture will be marginally better along a surface trough. Vertically veering wind profiles, with increasing speeds above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt, and organized storms are possible. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be the main hazards with these storms during the afternoon into evening. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms also are possible across Montana and western North Dakota, and portions of the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic... A weak surface low is forecast to move west to east along a sagging cold front/baroclinic zone draped across PA into northern NJ/southeast NY on Sunday/Sunday evening. Meanwhile, lee troughing will develop across VA. A hot and very moist airmass will reside near and south of these boundaries, which will serve as a focus for severe storm development during the afternoon and into evening. Southwesterly flow aloft will weaken through the day as an upper shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region, but around 20-30 kt mid/upper-level flow will persist. Moderate to strong destabilization is expected and thunderstorm clusters are expected by early to mid-afternoon. Sufficient clustering could occur along the southward-sagging cold front and one or more forward propagating clusters will be possible from northern VA into southeast PA until storms move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening. Sufficient consistency among deterministic/CAMs and AI/ML guidance exists regarding storm coverage to warrant an upgrade to 30 percent wind probabilities for portions of the region. ...Southern Plains to TN Valley... An remnant/weakening MCS is expected to be located over OK or AR Sunday morning. An MCV related to this feature will progress eastward toward the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity through the day. Further south and west near the Red River Valley/North Texas into the southern High Plains, outflow associated with the late-Day 1/Saturday into early Day 2/Sunday MCS may arc across this region. Differential heating could occur along this boundary, providing support for redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be modest with westward extent into the High Plains, but steep lapse rates aloft, and increasing moisture with eastward extent into the Lower MS Valley will support a corridor of moderate instability in the vicinity of the surface boundary. Northwesterly flow aloft will also modestly strengthen through the day, fostering weak, but perhaps sufficient vertical shear for transient organized cells/clusters along the boundary. Further east, the MCV will locally enhance vertical shear amid a very moist and moderately unstable airmass. This could foster potential for one or more forward propagating storm clusters, and some risk for damaging gusts from wet microbursts, leading to a broad expansion of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across parts of the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity. ...Northern Rockies into North Dakota... West/southwest flow aloft will strengthen across MT into ND as an upper shortwave trough moving across western Canada glances northern portions of the U.S. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will stretch from the northern Great Basin through southern/eastern MT into the western Dakotas. Low-level moisture will not be impressive, but the steep lapse rates aloft will support a corridor of modest destabilization across MT, and somewhat greater across western ND where boundary-layer moisture will be marginally better along a surface trough. Vertically veering wind profiles, with increasing speeds above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater than 30 kt, and organized storms are possible. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be the main hazards with these storms during the afternoon into evening. ..Leitman.. 07/04/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 4 16:52:01 UTC 2026.

MD 1489 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...southeast Kansas into western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041509Z - 041745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms may persist and eventually intensify further as it develops from Kansas into Missouri today. Damaging wind gusts are the most probable threat. DISCUSSION...The remnants of an overnight MCS continues to push across KS this morning, with sporadic severe gusts still being measured. This eastward surge is now interacting with a leading zone of thunderstorms over northeast KS which are mostly elevated above cooler outflow. Recent radar trends do show a relatively stronger area of storms moving toward the Emporia KS area, which is right along the instability gradient. This gradient extends eastward into west-central MO, and a very moist and unstable air mass exists to the south. The 12Z SGF sounding show relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, and when modified for current surface conditions over southeast KS, yields over 4000 J/kg MUCAPE. Although low-level southerly winds are forecast to remain weak, satellite imagery shows strong heating ahead of the ongoing activity, which will further destabilize the air mass. As such, it appears likely that the MCS will persist, and a watch may be needed if further strengthening occurs. ..Jewell.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37419682 37779647 37999636 38089591 38329507 38609439 38849387 38769315 38439289 37739285 37239313 36959391 36869482 36959594 37139676 37419682 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Mid Atlantic... A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms. ...PA/NY into southern New England... A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US. Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. ..IL/IN... A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA, with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds as these storms organize and track into IN by evening. ...KS/MO... An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS. Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and into western AR this evening. ...TX Panhandle... A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a few hours. ...Northeast CO... Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the 40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe cells are possible with large hail being the main risk. ...MN/SD... Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Mid Atlantic... A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms. ...PA/NY into southern New England... A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US. Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. ..IL/IN... A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA, with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds as these storms organize and track into IN by evening. ...KS/MO... An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS. Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and into western AR this evening. ...TX Panhandle... A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a few hours. ...Northeast CO... Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the 40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe cells are possible with large hail being the main risk. ...MN/SD... Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Mid Atlantic... A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms. ...PA/NY into southern New England... A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US. Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. ..IL/IN... A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA, with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds as these storms organize and track into IN by evening. ...KS/MO... An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS. Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and into western AR this evening. ...TX Panhandle... A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a few hours. ...Northeast CO... Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the 40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe cells are possible with large hail being the main risk. ...MN/SD... Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. ...Mid Atlantic... A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms. ...PA/NY into southern New England... A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US. Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. ..IL/IN... A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA, with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds as these storms organize and track into IN by evening. ...KS/MO... An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS. Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and into western AR this evening. ...TX Panhandle... A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a few hours. ...Northeast CO... Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the 40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe cells are possible with large hail being the main risk. ...MN/SD... Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 07/04/2026 Read more