SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind
gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great
Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind
gusts and large hail.
...Mid Atlantic...
A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today
with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the
mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse
rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest
mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of
PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters
remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms.
...PA/NY into southern New England...
A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is
rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US.
Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in
widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA
into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into
southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will
pose a risk of damaging wind gusts.
..IL/IN...
A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA,
with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The
air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very
unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms.
Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds
as these storms organize and track into IN by evening.
...KS/MO...
An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS.
Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient
mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will
persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with
a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts.
...KS/OK/AR...
In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development
is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary
across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south
of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some
hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and
into western AR this evening.
...TX Panhandle...
A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late
afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The
strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a
few hours.
...Northeast CO...
Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the
40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong
heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered
thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe
cells are possible with large hail being the main risk.
...MN/SD...
Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave
trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty
winds.
..Hart/Weinman.. 07/04/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
No changes were made to the previous outlook. Moisture has pushed
onto and in a few gaps west of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo
Mountains in Colorado, with dewpoints increasing 35-60F overnight
from along/near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to around Raton Pass.
Uncertainty remains if thunderstorms will develop west of the Front
Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains with thunderstorm probabilities
of 5-15% for these areas. However, if thunderstorm do develop they
will be dry and over near to record dry fuels. Concern for deep
pyroconvection remains on active large fires in/around the IsoDryT
area with gusty to severe outflow winds also a concern, especially
for the Aspen Acres Fire.
Moisture is moving north across southern California and the
Southwest between an upper low and high. Satellite imagery shows
shallow mid-level convection in central Arizona this morning. Areas
along/near the Mogollon Rim may have isolated thunderstorms today,
but uncertainty regarding cloud depth to support electrification
precludes including an IsoDryT area.
..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging is noted across the southwestern CONUS/northwest
Mexico in early-morning water-vapor imagery. This ridge is expected
to build northward over the next 24 hours and will maintain very
dry, but relatively benign, conditions across the Four Corners/Great
Basin region where fuels remain the driest. However, more focused
fire weather concerns may emerge within the lee of the Cascades and
across portions of central Colorado this afternoon and early
evening.
...Cascades...
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in water-vapor imagery
approaching the Pacific Northwest. Stronger low and mid-level flow
associated with this wave will overspread the Cascades through the
day, resulting in strengthening downslope winds along the eastern
slopes. Latest high-res guidance depicts 15-20 mph winds through the
more prominent gaps where downslope warming/drying will likely
result in pockets of 20-25% relative humidity. Although sustained
elevated fire weather conditions may be somewhat localized, recent
fire activity suggests fuels are adequately receptive to support the
fire weather concern.
...Colorado...
The 00 UTC GJT sounding from western CO sampled very steep (9.4
C/km) mid-level lapse rates with adequate mid-level moisture to
support weak buoyancy despite a PWAT value of only 0.35 inches. This
air mass will advect eastward over the next 18 hours and will likely
support pockets of adequate MUCAPE for weak convection this
afternoon. Despite upper-level height rises, upslope flow along the
central Rockies may support a few thunderstorms to the west of the
Front Range where very dry low-level conditions will be favorable
for dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuels across the region and
some potential for dry lightning strikes, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
highlights were maintained.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
No changes were made to the previous outlook. Moisture has pushed
onto and in a few gaps west of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo
Mountains in Colorado, with dewpoints increasing 35-60F overnight
from along/near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to around Raton Pass.
Uncertainty remains if thunderstorms will develop west of the Front
Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains with thunderstorm probabilities
of 5-15% for these areas. However, if thunderstorm do develop they
will be dry and over near to record dry fuels. Concern for deep
pyroconvection remains on active large fires in/around the IsoDryT
area with gusty to severe outflow winds also a concern, especially
for the Aspen Acres Fire.
Moisture is moving north across southern California and the
Southwest between an upper low and high. Satellite imagery shows
shallow mid-level convection in central Arizona this morning. Areas
along/near the Mogollon Rim may have isolated thunderstorms today,
but uncertainty regarding cloud depth to support electrification
precludes including an IsoDryT area.
..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging is noted across the southwestern CONUS/northwest
Mexico in early-morning water-vapor imagery. This ridge is expected
to build northward over the next 24 hours and will maintain very
dry, but relatively benign, conditions across the Four Corners/Great
Basin region where fuels remain the driest. However, more focused
fire weather concerns may emerge within the lee of the Cascades and
across portions of central Colorado this afternoon and early
evening.
...Cascades...
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in water-vapor imagery
approaching the Pacific Northwest. Stronger low and mid-level flow
associated with this wave will overspread the Cascades through the
day, resulting in strengthening downslope winds along the eastern
slopes. Latest high-res guidance depicts 15-20 mph winds through the
more prominent gaps where downslope warming/drying will likely
result in pockets of 20-25% relative humidity. Although sustained
elevated fire weather conditions may be somewhat localized, recent
fire activity suggests fuels are adequately receptive to support the
fire weather concern.
...Colorado...
The 00 UTC GJT sounding from western CO sampled very steep (9.4
C/km) mid-level lapse rates with adequate mid-level moisture to
support weak buoyancy despite a PWAT value of only 0.35 inches. This
air mass will advect eastward over the next 18 hours and will likely
support pockets of adequate MUCAPE for weak convection this
afternoon. Despite upper-level height rises, upslope flow along the
central Rockies may support a few thunderstorms to the west of the
Front Range where very dry low-level conditions will be favorable
for dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuels across the region and
some potential for dry lightning strikes, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
highlights were maintained.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
No changes were made to the previous outlook. Moisture has pushed
onto and in a few gaps west of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo
Mountains in Colorado, with dewpoints increasing 35-60F overnight
from along/near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to around Raton Pass.
Uncertainty remains if thunderstorms will develop west of the Front
Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains with thunderstorm probabilities
of 5-15% for these areas. However, if thunderstorm do develop they
will be dry and over near to record dry fuels. Concern for deep
pyroconvection remains on active large fires in/around the IsoDryT
area with gusty to severe outflow winds also a concern, especially
for the Aspen Acres Fire.
Moisture is moving north across southern California and the
Southwest between an upper low and high. Satellite imagery shows
shallow mid-level convection in central Arizona this morning. Areas
along/near the Mogollon Rim may have isolated thunderstorms today,
but uncertainty regarding cloud depth to support electrification
precludes including an IsoDryT area.
..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging is noted across the southwestern CONUS/northwest
Mexico in early-morning water-vapor imagery. This ridge is expected
to build northward over the next 24 hours and will maintain very
dry, but relatively benign, conditions across the Four Corners/Great
Basin region where fuels remain the driest. However, more focused
fire weather concerns may emerge within the lee of the Cascades and
across portions of central Colorado this afternoon and early
evening.
...Cascades...
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in water-vapor imagery
approaching the Pacific Northwest. Stronger low and mid-level flow
associated with this wave will overspread the Cascades through the
day, resulting in strengthening downslope winds along the eastern
slopes. Latest high-res guidance depicts 15-20 mph winds through the
more prominent gaps where downslope warming/drying will likely
result in pockets of 20-25% relative humidity. Although sustained
elevated fire weather conditions may be somewhat localized, recent
fire activity suggests fuels are adequately receptive to support the
fire weather concern.
...Colorado...
The 00 UTC GJT sounding from western CO sampled very steep (9.4
C/km) mid-level lapse rates with adequate mid-level moisture to
support weak buoyancy despite a PWAT value of only 0.35 inches. This
air mass will advect eastward over the next 18 hours and will likely
support pockets of adequate MUCAPE for weak convection this
afternoon. Despite upper-level height rises, upslope flow along the
central Rockies may support a few thunderstorms to the west of the
Front Range where very dry low-level conditions will be favorable
for dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuels across the region and
some potential for dry lightning strikes, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
highlights were maintained.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
No changes were made to the previous outlook. Moisture has pushed
onto and in a few gaps west of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo
Mountains in Colorado, with dewpoints increasing 35-60F overnight
from along/near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to around Raton Pass.
Uncertainty remains if thunderstorms will develop west of the Front
Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains with thunderstorm probabilities
of 5-15% for these areas. However, if thunderstorm do develop they
will be dry and over near to record dry fuels. Concern for deep
pyroconvection remains on active large fires in/around the IsoDryT
area with gusty to severe outflow winds also a concern, especially
for the Aspen Acres Fire.
Moisture is moving north across southern California and the
Southwest between an upper low and high. Satellite imagery shows
shallow mid-level convection in central Arizona this morning. Areas
along/near the Mogollon Rim may have isolated thunderstorms today,
but uncertainty regarding cloud depth to support electrification
precludes including an IsoDryT area.
..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging is noted across the southwestern CONUS/northwest
Mexico in early-morning water-vapor imagery. This ridge is expected
to build northward over the next 24 hours and will maintain very
dry, but relatively benign, conditions across the Four Corners/Great
Basin region where fuels remain the driest. However, more focused
fire weather concerns may emerge within the lee of the Cascades and
across portions of central Colorado this afternoon and early
evening.
...Cascades...
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in water-vapor imagery
approaching the Pacific Northwest. Stronger low and mid-level flow
associated with this wave will overspread the Cascades through the
day, resulting in strengthening downslope winds along the eastern
slopes. Latest high-res guidance depicts 15-20 mph winds through the
more prominent gaps where downslope warming/drying will likely
result in pockets of 20-25% relative humidity. Although sustained
elevated fire weather conditions may be somewhat localized, recent
fire activity suggests fuels are adequately receptive to support the
fire weather concern.
...Colorado...
The 00 UTC GJT sounding from western CO sampled very steep (9.4
C/km) mid-level lapse rates with adequate mid-level moisture to
support weak buoyancy despite a PWAT value of only 0.35 inches. This
air mass will advect eastward over the next 18 hours and will likely
support pockets of adequate MUCAPE for weak convection this
afternoon. Despite upper-level height rises, upslope flow along the
central Rockies may support a few thunderstorms to the west of the
Front Range where very dry low-level conditions will be favorable
for dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuels across the region and
some potential for dry lightning strikes, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
highlights were maintained.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
No changes were made to the previous outlook. Moisture has pushed
onto and in a few gaps west of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo
Mountains in Colorado, with dewpoints increasing 35-60F overnight
from along/near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to around Raton Pass.
Uncertainty remains if thunderstorms will develop west of the Front
Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains with thunderstorm probabilities
of 5-15% for these areas. However, if thunderstorm do develop they
will be dry and over near to record dry fuels. Concern for deep
pyroconvection remains on active large fires in/around the IsoDryT
area with gusty to severe outflow winds also a concern, especially
for the Aspen Acres Fire.
Moisture is moving north across southern California and the
Southwest between an upper low and high. Satellite imagery shows
shallow mid-level convection in central Arizona this morning. Areas
along/near the Mogollon Rim may have isolated thunderstorms today,
but uncertainty regarding cloud depth to support electrification
precludes including an IsoDryT area.
..Nauslar.. 07/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging is noted across the southwestern CONUS/northwest
Mexico in early-morning water-vapor imagery. This ridge is expected
to build northward over the next 24 hours and will maintain very
dry, but relatively benign, conditions across the Four Corners/Great
Basin region where fuels remain the driest. However, more focused
fire weather concerns may emerge within the lee of the Cascades and
across portions of central Colorado this afternoon and early
evening.
...Cascades...
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in water-vapor imagery
approaching the Pacific Northwest. Stronger low and mid-level flow
associated with this wave will overspread the Cascades through the
day, resulting in strengthening downslope winds along the eastern
slopes. Latest high-res guidance depicts 15-20 mph winds through the
more prominent gaps where downslope warming/drying will likely
result in pockets of 20-25% relative humidity. Although sustained
elevated fire weather conditions may be somewhat localized, recent
fire activity suggests fuels are adequately receptive to support the
fire weather concern.
...Colorado...
The 00 UTC GJT sounding from western CO sampled very steep (9.4
C/km) mid-level lapse rates with adequate mid-level moisture to
support weak buoyancy despite a PWAT value of only 0.35 inches. This
air mass will advect eastward over the next 18 hours and will likely
support pockets of adequate MUCAPE for weak convection this
afternoon. Despite upper-level height rises, upslope flow along the
central Rockies may support a few thunderstorms to the west of the
Front Range where very dry low-level conditions will be favorable
for dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuels across the region and
some potential for dry lightning strikes, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
highlights were maintained.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind
gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great
Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind
gusts and large hail.
...Upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England...
A belt of moderate mid-level westerly flow aloft currently extends
across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic States, situated between the
upper troughing over eastern Canada and higher heights over the
southeast CONUS. A modest vorticity maximum appears to be moving
within these westerlies across Lower MI, downstream of two more
prominent, convectively augmented vorticity maxima across IA and KS.
There also appears to be a very modest shortwave trough moving over
the KY vicinity, evidenced by a subtle shift in the mid-level winds
across the region. Both of these features are expected to continue
eastward today, progressing into a very warm, moist, and unstable
airmass across the Upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by the early
afternoon.
Interaction between the modest ascent associated with these features
and the unstable airmass forecast to be in place will support
thunderstorm development. This development is expected first over
the Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley vicinity during the early
afternoon (likely supported by the modest KY shortwave trough)
before then progressing northeastward through northern VA, DC,
central MD, DE, and southern NJ. Weak deep-layer shear amid a deeply
mixed airmass (with afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s/low
100s) will support outflow-dominant storm structures, and strong
cold pools capable of widespread damaging wind gusts. An isolated
gust or two around 70-75 mph is possible. A similar convective
evolution is anticipated farther north (from the Allegheny Plateau
through the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England) later in
the afternoon as the Lower MI vorticity maximum moves through the
region. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk here as well, with
slightly less coverage and magnitude than farther south.
...Central/Southern Plains...
Outflow associated with a decaying convective cluster over
western/central KS currently arcs from southeast CO across far
southwest KS into central KS. This cluster is forecast to continue
weakening as it gradually moves east-southeastward, with its
associated outflow likely extending from east-central KS back
southwestward across south-central KS by this afternoon. Airmass
destabilization is expected by the mid to late afternoon amid strong
heating, steep mid-level lapse rates, and ample low-level moisture.
Moisture convergence along this boundary within this convectively
uninhibited airmass will result in additional thunderstorms. Given
the strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear in place,
a few supercells are possible early in the convective cycle. Large
to isolated very large hail as well as strong downbursts are
possible with any supercells. A tornado or two could also occur,
particularly with sufficient residence time along the boundary.
Outflow-dominant storm structures will likely result in one or more
forward-propagating convective clusters throughout the evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within the
moist upslope flow over the central High Plains, with at least some
potential for the development of a convective line that then
progresses into western NE, northeastern CO, and northwestern KS.
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is also expected along the
dryline extending from the central/western OK Panhandle
southwestward across the TX Panhandle and into far east-central NM.
Weak vertical shear will likely prevent sustained updraft
organization, but a few storms could briefly be robust enough to
produce strong updrafts/downdrafts and resulting damaging gusts.
...Lower MO Valley into the Lower/Central OH Valley...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as a
pair of vorticity maxima, one associated with the convection over KS
and the other from overnight storms across IA, progress eastward
into the moist and diurnally destabilized airmass over the region.
Vertical shear across the region will be modest, limiting updraft
organization and promoting an outflow-dominant storm mode. Even so,
some cold pool amalgamation is possible, with the resultant
forward-propagating clusters capable of damaging gusts.
..Mosier/Dean.. 07/04/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind
gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great
Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind
gusts and large hail.
...Upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England...
A belt of moderate mid-level westerly flow aloft currently extends
across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic States, situated between the
upper troughing over eastern Canada and higher heights over the
southeast CONUS. A modest vorticity maximum appears to be moving
within these westerlies across Lower MI, downstream of two more
prominent, convectively augmented vorticity maxima across IA and KS.
There also appears to be a very modest shortwave trough moving over
the KY vicinity, evidenced by a subtle shift in the mid-level winds
across the region. Both of these features are expected to continue
eastward today, progressing into a very warm, moist, and unstable
airmass across the Upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by the early
afternoon.
Interaction between the modest ascent associated with these features
and the unstable airmass forecast to be in place will support
thunderstorm development. This development is expected first over
the Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley vicinity during the early
afternoon (likely supported by the modest KY shortwave trough)
before then progressing northeastward through northern VA, DC,
central MD, DE, and southern NJ. Weak deep-layer shear amid a deeply
mixed airmass (with afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s/low
100s) will support outflow-dominant storm structures, and strong
cold pools capable of widespread damaging wind gusts. An isolated
gust or two around 70-75 mph is possible. A similar convective
evolution is anticipated farther north (from the Allegheny Plateau
through the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England) later in
the afternoon as the Lower MI vorticity maximum moves through the
region. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk here as well, with
slightly less coverage and magnitude than farther south.
...Central/Southern Plains...
Outflow associated with a decaying convective cluster over
western/central KS currently arcs from southeast CO across far
southwest KS into central KS. This cluster is forecast to continue
weakening as it gradually moves east-southeastward, with its
associated outflow likely extending from east-central KS back
southwestward across south-central KS by this afternoon. Airmass
destabilization is expected by the mid to late afternoon amid strong
heating, steep mid-level lapse rates, and ample low-level moisture.
Moisture convergence along this boundary within this convectively
uninhibited airmass will result in additional thunderstorms. Given
the strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear in place,
a few supercells are possible early in the convective cycle. Large
to isolated very large hail as well as strong downbursts are
possible with any supercells. A tornado or two could also occur,
particularly with sufficient residence time along the boundary.
Outflow-dominant storm structures will likely result in one or more
forward-propagating convective clusters throughout the evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within the
moist upslope flow over the central High Plains, with at least some
potential for the development of a convective line that then
progresses into western NE, northeastern CO, and northwestern KS.
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is also expected along the
dryline extending from the central/western OK Panhandle
southwestward across the TX Panhandle and into far east-central NM.
Weak vertical shear will likely prevent sustained updraft
organization, but a few storms could briefly be robust enough to
produce strong updrafts/downdrafts and resulting damaging gusts.
...Lower MO Valley into the Lower/Central OH Valley...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as a
pair of vorticity maxima, one associated with the convection over KS
and the other from overnight storms across IA, progress eastward
into the moist and diurnally destabilized airmass over the region.
Vertical shear across the region will be modest, limiting updraft
organization and promoting an outflow-dominant storm mode. Even so,
some cold pool amalgamation is possible, with the resultant
forward-propagating clusters capable of damaging gusts.
..Mosier/Dean.. 07/04/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind
gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great
Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind
gusts and large hail.
...Upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England...
A belt of moderate mid-level westerly flow aloft currently extends
across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic States, situated between the
upper troughing over eastern Canada and higher heights over the
southeast CONUS. A modest vorticity maximum appears to be moving
within these westerlies across Lower MI, downstream of two more
prominent, convectively augmented vorticity maxima across IA and KS.
There also appears to be a very modest shortwave trough moving over
the KY vicinity, evidenced by a subtle shift in the mid-level winds
across the region. Both of these features are expected to continue
eastward today, progressing into a very warm, moist, and unstable
airmass across the Upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by the early
afternoon.
Interaction between the modest ascent associated with these features
and the unstable airmass forecast to be in place will support
thunderstorm development. This development is expected first over
the Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley vicinity during the early
afternoon (likely supported by the modest KY shortwave trough)
before then progressing northeastward through northern VA, DC,
central MD, DE, and southern NJ. Weak deep-layer shear amid a deeply
mixed airmass (with afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s/low
100s) will support outflow-dominant storm structures, and strong
cold pools capable of widespread damaging wind gusts. An isolated
gust or two around 70-75 mph is possible. A similar convective
evolution is anticipated farther north (from the Allegheny Plateau
through the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England) later in
the afternoon as the Lower MI vorticity maximum moves through the
region. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk here as well, with
slightly less coverage and magnitude than farther south.
...Central/Southern Plains...
Outflow associated with a decaying convective cluster over
western/central KS currently arcs from southeast CO across far
southwest KS into central KS. This cluster is forecast to continue
weakening as it gradually moves east-southeastward, with its
associated outflow likely extending from east-central KS back
southwestward across south-central KS by this afternoon. Airmass
destabilization is expected by the mid to late afternoon amid strong
heating, steep mid-level lapse rates, and ample low-level moisture.
Moisture convergence along this boundary within this convectively
uninhibited airmass will result in additional thunderstorms. Given
the strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear in place,
a few supercells are possible early in the convective cycle. Large
to isolated very large hail as well as strong downbursts are
possible with any supercells. A tornado or two could also occur,
particularly with sufficient residence time along the boundary.
Outflow-dominant storm structures will likely result in one or more
forward-propagating convective clusters throughout the evening.
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within the
moist upslope flow over the central High Plains, with at least some
potential for the development of a convective line that then
progresses into western NE, northeastern CO, and northwestern KS.
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is also expected along the
dryline extending from the central/western OK Panhandle
southwestward across the TX Panhandle and into far east-central NM.
Weak vertical shear will likely prevent sustained updraft
organization, but a few storms could briefly be robust enough to
produce strong updrafts/downdrafts and resulting damaging gusts.
...Lower MO Valley into the Lower/Central OH Valley...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as a
pair of vorticity maxima, one associated with the convection over KS
and the other from overnight storms across IA, progress eastward
into the moist and diurnally destabilized airmass over the region.
Vertical shear across the region will be modest, limiting updraft
organization and promoting an outflow-dominant storm mode. Even so,
some cold pool amalgamation is possible, with the resultant
forward-propagating clusters capable of damaging gusts.
..Mosier/Dean.. 07/04/2026
Read more
MD 1488 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453... FOR FAR NORTHEAST CO INTO NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Areas affected...Far northeast CO into northwest KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453...
Valid 040823Z - 041000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453
continues.
SUMMARY...Localized severe gusts and isolated hail remain possible
through the early morning.
DISCUSSION...Earlier intense supercells have evolved into a small
bowing segment across far northeast CO as of 0815 UTC. This small
cluster has a history of producing observed severe gusts, and may
continue to pose a severe-wind and isolated hail threat as it moves
into far northwest KS. Extensive downstream convection near and
southeast of Goodland may eventually limit the longevity and eastern
extent of the severe threat of this cluster. The strongest storms
within the warm-advection regime may also pose a threat for isolated
hail and localized strong to severe gusts, given the presence of
moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear.
..Dean.. 07/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 40040219 40010117 39900018 39370001 38969994 38680008
38510022 38590129 38750201 38880245 39270263 40040219
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
WW 0453 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 453
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE LAA
TO 45 SW IML TO 45 E MCK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488
..DEAN..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 453
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-125-041040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON YUMA
KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-041040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS WALLACE
NEC057-087-145-041040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 0453 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 453
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE LAA
TO 45 SW IML TO 45 E MCK.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488
..DEAN..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 453
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-125-041040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON YUMA
KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-041040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS WALLACE
NEC057-087-145-041040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
WW 453 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 040635Z - 041200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 453
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Colorado
Northwest Kansas
Far Southwest Nebraska
* Effective this Saturday morning from 1235 AM until 600 AM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Several strong to severe thunderstorms capable of a large
hail and damaging wind gusts are currently ongoing across northeast
Colorado and northwest Kansas. These storms will likely persist for
the next several hours. Some clustering of these storms is possible,
with the resulting convective line remaining capable of producing
strong gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest
of Burlington CO to 10 miles southeast of Hill City KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24020.
...Mosier
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that
considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and
subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to
the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered
near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend.
Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West
through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.
Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may
be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include
evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts.
However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days
across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential,
if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet
to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that
considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and
subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to
the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered
near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend.
Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West
through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.
Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may
be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include
evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts.
However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days
across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential,
if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet
to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that
considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and
subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to
the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered
near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend.
Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West
through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.
Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may
be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include
evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts.
However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days
across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential,
if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet
to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that
considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and
subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to
the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered
near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend.
Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West
through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.
Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may
be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include
evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts.
However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days
across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential,
if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet
to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.
Read more
MD 1487 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026
Areas affected...Parts of south-central/southeast IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 040730Z - 040930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind may continue overnight.
DISCUSSION...A notable outflow surge has occurred with persistent
convection near Des Moines, where a 50 kt gust was recently
observed. This cluster may continue to propagate southeastward in
the short term, given the presence of rich low-level moisture and
moderate buoyancy immediately downstream. This will result in a
threat for at least locally damaging wind continuing for the next
1-2 hours. The longevity of any severe threat may tend to be limited
by modest deep-layer shear and the influence of decayed convection
and attendant low/midlevel drying approaching the region from
southwest IA.
..Dean/Mosier.. 07/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 41629367 41789220 41439159 40759186 40599283 40699355
40879362 41309385 41439396 41629367
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
WW 0453 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 453
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N LAA TO
15 NW LIC.
..DEAN..07/04/26
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 453
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC017-063-073-125-040940-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN
YUMA
KSC023-039-063-065-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-040940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE
GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON
RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN
THOMAS WALLACE
NEC057-087-145-040940-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
Read more
