SPC Jul 4, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging gusts will continue across portions of the Mid Atlantic and the central/northern Plains. More isolated to scattered severe storms will also continue across portions of the High Plains to the northern Rockies. ...Discussion... Several clusters of widely scattered thunderstorms in many different regimes are ongoing across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest and across the Mid-Atlantic. The greatest threat through the remainder of the evening will be for damaging wind, with a few instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado from the Plains to the Midwest. Across the central/northern Plains, activity is mainly tied to lee troughing and broad ascent from the mid-level shortwave trough. A few embedded supercells will pose potential for large hail through the evening but the main threat is shifting to become damaging wind, with several clusters attempting to grow upscale. The more focused corridor of severe wind threat through the evening will likely extend from southeastern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where a more robust line has developed amid a strongly unstable air mass. Deep layer shear decreases with southward extent into Kansas, however, storms may be driven by cold pool dynamics south and eastward through the evening. Across portions of southern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and eastern Colorado, a few more discrete supercell clusters are ongoing. This region will be where the greatest short term risk will be for large to very large hail, particularly across western Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota. Across portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, a cluster of storms is moving across northern Illinois towards the Chicago Metro. This line is tracking along a MLCAPE gradient that extends across northern Illinois into northern Indiana/southern Michigan. Storms will likely advance eastward along this gradient through the evening, with potential for damaging winds. Another robust line is moving eastward through New York City and northern New Jersey. This has produced a swath of measured severe wind and continues eastward towards the coast. ..Thornton.. 07/04/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging gusts will continue across portions of the Mid Atlantic and the central/northern Plains. More isolated to scattered severe storms will also continue across portions of the High Plains to the northern Rockies. ...Discussion... Several clusters of widely scattered thunderstorms in many different regimes are ongoing across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest and across the Mid-Atlantic. The greatest threat through the remainder of the evening will be for damaging wind, with a few instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado from the Plains to the Midwest. Across the central/northern Plains, activity is mainly tied to lee troughing and broad ascent from the mid-level shortwave trough. A few embedded supercells will pose potential for large hail through the evening but the main threat is shifting to become damaging wind, with several clusters attempting to grow upscale. The more focused corridor of severe wind threat through the evening will likely extend from southeastern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where a more robust line has developed amid a strongly unstable air mass. Deep layer shear decreases with southward extent into Kansas, however, storms may be driven by cold pool dynamics south and eastward through the evening. Across portions of southern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and eastern Colorado, a few more discrete supercell clusters are ongoing. This region will be where the greatest short term risk will be for large to very large hail, particularly across western Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota. Across portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, a cluster of storms is moving across northern Illinois towards the Chicago Metro. This line is tracking along a MLCAPE gradient that extends across northern Illinois into northern Indiana/southern Michigan. Storms will likely advance eastward along this gradient through the evening, with potential for damaging winds. Another robust line is moving eastward through New York City and northern New Jersey. This has produced a swath of measured severe wind and continues eastward towards the coast. ..Thornton.. 07/04/2026 Read more
