Storm Prediction Center

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will likely occur across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level trough will deepen and lift out of the Four Corners into the central Plains as a belt of enhanced westerly flow moves within the mean flow. As this westerly flow overspreads the Rockies, deepening of a surface cyclone across eastern Colorado is expected, with strengthening of southerly surface flow across the southern/central Plains. Convection is likely to be ongoing in the vicinity of a lead shortwave across portions of Iowa into Wisconsin at the start of the D2/Monday period. A front will extend from the surface low in eastern Colorado northward across southeast NE/IA/WI. A surface dryline will be located across central Kansas extending southward into western Oklahoma and southwestern Texas. Mid 60s to 70s dew points will be common east of the dryline and northward ahead of the cold front into the Great Lakes. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front southward to the dryline by the afternoon. A corridor of enhanced severe potential will exist across central KS/southeastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO. ...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO... Near the triple point of the surface low/dryline/cold front across central Kansas, a more favorable corridor of severe potential will exist Monday afternoon. Morning cloud cover should erode across central Kansas by the afternoon allowing for strong daytime heating and warming. Temperatures ahead of the dryline will approach the mid to upper 80s, with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. This will yield and axis of moderate to strong MLCAPE around 3500-4500 J/kg extending from central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. MLCIN will erode through the afternoon by around 18-20z with initiation expected along the dryline and cold front to the north by around 20-21z. Forecast soundings indicate favorable kinematics to support organized supercells, given deep layer shear around 40-50 kts. Initial supercells will be capable of large to giant hail (2-4+ inch) given steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Hail probabilities were increased with this outlook to support this potential. The southerly low-level jet is progged to increase as large scale ascent spreads eastward through the afternoon, peaking around 40-50 kts by the 00-03z across northern OK into central KS. Strengthening flow in the 850-700 mb layer will elongate low-level hodographs with broad clockwise curvature in the 0-2 km layer and rapidly increasing low-level SRH. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH will approach 250-300 m2/s2 across portions of central/eastern KS. This in combination with the volatile thermodynamic environment will support an increase in tornado potential through the evening. Should discrete supercells be maintained, strong to intense tornadoes will be possible primarily from central to northeastern KS into southeastern NE. Given southwesterly deep layer shear is oriented somewhat parallel to the southwest to northeast cold front, storms near the front may cluster and grow upscale. Better potential exists for a more semi-discrete supercell across central Kansas ahead of the dryline. A few HREF members do support potential for this scenario, with long UH tracks across KS into southern Nebraska. Tornado probabilities were increased from east-central KS into southeastern NE/southern IA/northwestern MS. ...Central IA into portions of IL/KY/WI/IN/Lower MI... Elevated thunderstorm activity will be likely at the beginning of the period across portions of Iowa/Wisconsin. This will pose some risk for a few instances of severe hail. Guidance suggests that recovery will occur by the afternoon across this region with thunderstorms redeveloping along the cold front and re-intensifying of downstream convection the into the afternoon. Initial morning convection may pose some wind/hail risk into IL/IN/western KY. Additional development by the evening along the cold front to the north will pose some wind/hail risk across portions of the upper Midwest. ...OK/TX... A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX. Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado will exist. ..Thornton.. 05/17/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will likely occur across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level trough will deepen and lift out of the Four Corners into the central Plains as a belt of enhanced westerly flow moves within the mean flow. As this westerly flow overspreads the Rockies, deepening of a surface cyclone across eastern Colorado is expected, with strengthening of southerly surface flow across the southern/central Plains. Convection is likely to be ongoing in the vicinity of a lead shortwave across portions of Iowa into Wisconsin at the start of the D2/Monday period. A front will extend from the surface low in eastern Colorado northward across southeast NE/IA/WI. A surface dryline will be located across central Kansas extending southward into western Oklahoma and southwestern Texas. Mid 60s to 70s dew points will be common east of the dryline and northward ahead of the cold front into the Great Lakes. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front southward to the dryline by the afternoon. A corridor of enhanced severe potential will exist across central KS/southeastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO. ...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO... Near the triple point of the surface low/dryline/cold front across central Kansas, a more favorable corridor of severe potential will exist Monday afternoon. Morning cloud cover should erode across central Kansas by the afternoon allowing for strong daytime heating and warming. Temperatures ahead of the dryline will approach the mid to upper 80s, with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. This will yield and axis of moderate to strong MLCAPE around 3500-4500 J/kg extending from central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. MLCIN will erode through the afternoon by around 18-20z with initiation expected along the dryline and cold front to the north by around 20-21z. Forecast soundings indicate favorable kinematics to support organized supercells, given deep layer shear around 40-50 kts. Initial supercells will be capable of large to giant hail (2-4+ inch) given steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Hail probabilities were increased with this outlook to support this potential. The southerly low-level jet is progged to increase as large scale ascent spreads eastward through the afternoon, peaking around 40-50 kts by the 00-03z across northern OK into central KS. Strengthening flow in the 850-700 mb layer will elongate low-level hodographs with broad clockwise curvature in the 0-2 km layer and rapidly increasing low-level SRH. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH will approach 250-300 m2/s2 across portions of central/eastern KS. This in combination with the volatile thermodynamic environment will support an increase in tornado potential through the evening. Should discrete supercells be maintained, strong to intense tornadoes will be possible primarily from central to northeastern KS into southeastern NE. Given southwesterly deep layer shear is oriented somewhat parallel to the southwest to northeast cold front, storms near the front may cluster and grow upscale. Better potential exists for a more semi-discrete supercell across central Kansas ahead of the dryline. A few HREF members do support potential for this scenario, with long UH tracks across KS into southern Nebraska. Tornado probabilities were increased from east-central KS into southeastern NE/southern IA/northwestern MS. ...Central IA into portions of IL/KY/WI/IN/Lower MI... Elevated thunderstorm activity will be likely at the beginning of the period across portions of Iowa/Wisconsin. This will pose some risk for a few instances of severe hail. Guidance suggests that recovery will occur by the afternoon across this region with thunderstorms redeveloping along the cold front and re-intensifying of downstream convection the into the afternoon. Initial morning convection may pose some wind/hail risk into IL/IN/western KY. Additional development by the evening along the cold front to the north will pose some wind/hail risk across portions of the upper Midwest. ...OK/TX... A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX. Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado will exist. ..Thornton.. 05/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected this afternoon into tonight across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one or more linear clusters of storms leads to an increase in wind-damage potential by evening. ...Colorado/Central Plains to Upper Midwest... An active severe-weather day is expected regionally. A consequential late-evening/overnight MCS and related outflow across Nebraska/northern Kansas to southern Iowa and northern Missouri will likely be a lingering factor for later today. For one, this includes some southeastward regional adjustment in severe probabilities across areas such as eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and northeast Kansas/far northwest Missouri. One or more embedded disturbances will emerge this afternoon from the central Rockies amid increasingly prevalent cyclonic flow aloft in advance of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a northward advection of moisture, and post-MCS-related air mass recovery across eastern portions of Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa through late afternoon in association with a warm front, and ahead of a southeast-progressing cold front across the north-central High Plains. Initial thunderstorm development is expected across northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska within a low-level upslope flow regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front. These storms will be capable of large hail given very steep lapse rates, strong vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs. By late afternoon/early evening, quickly intensifying deep convection is expected farther east within the warm sector and near and east/northeast of a surface triple point across parts of eastern Nebraska and far southeast South Dakota/northwest Iowa, initially including intense supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Backed low-level winds within the warm sector, veering with height, will contribute to increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved low-level hodographs. While the corridor for discrete supercells will be narrow, partly due to capping as well as the advancing cold front resulting in upscale growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes and large to very large hail, with a somewhat longer duration for more discrete storms with southward extent across eastern Nebraska into northeast Kansas. With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level jet significantly increases during the evening. An attendant risk of severe wind gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will diminish with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as instability weakens and capping increases. ...Kansas/Oklahoma and North Texas... While there are some uncertainties related to capping, particularly with southward extent, at least isolated high-based convection is expected regionally late in the afternoon, particularly for the Kansas and western Oklahoma/eastern Texas Panhandle portion of the dryline. Given very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, moderate instability, and supercell-supportive wind profiles, large to very large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Northern Illinois and Wisconsin to Lower Michigan... While the influences of the early morning MCS across the Corn Belt are not certain, potentially including lingering cloud cover, there is some potential for at least isolated strong/severe storm development near the northward-shifting warm front. This could potentially include a few supercells and related hazards through the afternoon/early evening. ...Southeast/Florida Peninsula... On the western periphery of the western Atlantic anticyclone, diurnally maximized thunderstorm development should focus from the southern Appalachians across Georgia and interior/western Florida Peninsula. Thermodynamic environment should be supportive of strong/locally severe storms capable of wind damage/downbursts, and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected this afternoon into tonight across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one or more linear clusters of storms leads to an increase in wind-damage potential by evening. ...Colorado/Central Plains to Upper Midwest... An active severe-weather day is expected regionally. A consequential late-evening/overnight MCS and related outflow across Nebraska/northern Kansas to southern Iowa and northern Missouri will likely be a lingering factor for later today. For one, this includes some southeastward regional adjustment in severe probabilities across areas such as eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and northeast Kansas/far northwest Missouri. One or more embedded disturbances will emerge this afternoon from the central Rockies amid increasingly prevalent cyclonic flow aloft in advance of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a northward advection of moisture, and post-MCS-related air mass recovery across eastern portions of Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa through late afternoon in association with a warm front, and ahead of a southeast-progressing cold front across the north-central High Plains. Initial thunderstorm development is expected across northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska within a low-level upslope flow regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front. These storms will be capable of large hail given very steep lapse rates, strong vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs. By late afternoon/early evening, quickly intensifying deep convection is expected farther east within the warm sector and near and east/northeast of a surface triple point across parts of eastern Nebraska and far southeast South Dakota/northwest Iowa, initially including intense supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Backed low-level winds within the warm sector, veering with height, will contribute to increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved low-level hodographs. While the corridor for discrete supercells will be narrow, partly due to capping as well as the advancing cold front resulting in upscale growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes and large to very large hail, with a somewhat longer duration for more discrete storms with southward extent across eastern Nebraska into northeast Kansas. With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level jet significantly increases during the evening. An attendant risk of severe wind gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will diminish with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as instability weakens and capping increases. ...Kansas/Oklahoma and North Texas... While there are some uncertainties related to capping, particularly with southward extent, at least isolated high-based convection is expected regionally late in the afternoon, particularly for the Kansas and western Oklahoma/eastern Texas Panhandle portion of the dryline. Given very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, moderate instability, and supercell-supportive wind profiles, large to very large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Northern Illinois and Wisconsin to Lower Michigan... While the influences of the early morning MCS across the Corn Belt are not certain, potentially including lingering cloud cover, there is some potential for at least isolated strong/severe storm development near the northward-shifting warm front. This could potentially include a few supercells and related hazards through the afternoon/early evening. ...Southeast/Florida Peninsula... On the western periphery of the western Atlantic anticyclone, diurnally maximized thunderstorm development should focus from the southern Appalachians across Georgia and interior/western Florida Peninsula. Thermodynamic environment should be supportive of strong/locally severe storms capable of wind damage/downbursts, and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/17/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected this afternoon into tonight across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, before one or more linear clusters of storms leads to an increase in wind-damage potential by evening. ...Colorado/Central Plains to Upper Midwest... An active severe-weather day is expected regionally. A consequential late-evening/overnight MCS and related outflow across Nebraska/northern Kansas to southern Iowa and northern Missouri will likely be a lingering factor for later today. For one, this includes some southeastward regional adjustment in severe probabilities across areas such as eastern Nebraska/western Iowa and northeast Kansas/far northwest Missouri. One or more embedded disturbances will emerge this afternoon from the central Rockies amid increasingly prevalent cyclonic flow aloft in advance of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. Lee cyclogenesis will occur across the central High Plains, with a northward advection of moisture, and post-MCS-related air mass recovery across eastern portions of Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa through late afternoon in association with a warm front, and ahead of a southeast-progressing cold front across the north-central High Plains. Initial thunderstorm development is expected across northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska within a low-level upslope flow regime ahead of the approaching synoptic cold front. These storms will be capable of large hail given very steep lapse rates, strong vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs. By late afternoon/early evening, quickly intensifying deep convection is expected farther east within the warm sector and near and east/northeast of a surface triple point across parts of eastern Nebraska and far southeast South Dakota/northwest Iowa, initially including intense supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Backed low-level winds within the warm sector, veering with height, will contribute to increasing low-level SRH and favorably curved low-level hodographs. While the corridor for discrete supercells will be narrow, partly due to capping as well as the advancing cold front resulting in upscale growth, the expectation is for a few supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes and large to very large hail, with a somewhat longer duration for more discrete storms with southward extent across eastern Nebraska into northeast Kansas. With time, one or more linear/bowing segments is expected to develop near the east/southeast-advancing cold front and as the low-level jet significantly increases during the evening. An attendant risk of severe wind gusts will accompany this activity. The severe risk will diminish with time and eastward extent during the nighttime hours as instability weakens and capping increases. ...Kansas/Oklahoma and North Texas... While there are some uncertainties related to capping, particularly with southward extent, at least isolated high-based convection is expected regionally late in the afternoon, particularly for the Kansas and western Oklahoma/eastern Texas Panhandle portion of the dryline. Given very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, moderate instability, and supercell-supportive wind profiles, large to very large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Northern Illinois and Wisconsin to Lower Michigan... While the influences of the early morning MCS across the Corn Belt are not certain, potentially including lingering cloud cover, there is some potential for at least isolated strong/severe storm development near the northward-shifting warm front. This could potentially include a few supercells and related hazards through the afternoon/early evening. ...Southeast/Florida Peninsula... On the western periphery of the western Atlantic anticyclone, diurnally maximized thunderstorm development should focus from the southern Appalachians across Georgia and interior/western Florida Peninsula. Thermodynamic environment should be supportive of strong/locally severe storms capable of wind damage/downbursts, and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/17/2026 Read more

MD 0745 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211...212... FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0745 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Areas affected...northeast Kansas...southeast Nebraska...and northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211...212... Valid 170533Z - 170700Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211, 212 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat should continue for the next 1-2 hours with a fast moving bowing segment moving across northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Farther east, large hail will remain possible across portions of far northern Missouri. DISCUSSION...A well organized linear bowing segment continues to quickly move east this morning. The overall environment along and immediately ahead of the MCS remains conducive for damaging thunderstorm winds, with measured wind gusts within the last hour in excess of 85 mph. In the next 1-2 hours, the ongoing bowing segment should move into a less favorable environment across northern Missouri where ongoing thunderstorms continue to reinforce a stable boundary layer. In turn, this should begin to lessen the overall damaging wind threat. Given the current speed of the bowing segment, a local extension in time for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211 may be required across eastern/southeastern portions of the watch. Farther east, the aforementioned thunderstorms across northern Missouri will continue to have the potential to produce large hail as they remain rooted within an elevated CAPE reservoir. An isolated damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out. ..Marsh.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39189783 39909700 40559705 40589266 39609284 39389487 39089657 39189783 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW TOP TO 15 SSW FNB TO 30 NW FNB TO 25 W SDA TO 10 NW SDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745. ..MARSH..05/17/26 ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...TOP...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC013-085-170740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN JACKSON NEC127-147-170740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEMAHA RICHARDSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE SLN TO 20 SE CNK TO 30 SSW BIE TO 15 NNW BIE TO 5 ESE SDA. ..GLEASON..05/17/26 ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...TOP...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC013-027-085-117-131-149-161-201-170640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY JACKSON MARSHALL NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY WASHINGTON NEC067-097-127-131-133-147-170640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GAGE JOHNSON NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 211 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 162210Z - 170600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 211 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Western Iowa Northern into Northeast Kansas Far Northwest Missouri Central into Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 510 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercells capable of a risk for large to very large hail are expected through early evening. A tornado is also possible towards early evening near a west to east oriented boundary draped in southern Nebraska. A clustering of storms is expected eventually later this evening and an eastward-moving linear cluster capable of severe gusts will likely evolve. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Kearney NE to 50 miles south southeast of Omaha NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 208...WW 209...WW 210... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Smith Read more

MD 0744 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0744 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Areas affected...north-central into northeast Kansas and south-central into southeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211... Valid 170315Z - 170515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for significant damaging gusts of 70-85 mph persist this evening. DISCUSSION...A relatively compact but intense bow echo continues to produce significant severe gusts as it moves across northern KS and southern NE. Multiple gusts of 70-80+ mph have been measured over the past few hours, most recently 82 mph at Holdrege NE. Notably, these gusts have occurred even after cool northeast surface winds were seen at these stations. As such, at least the leading edge of the southward-moving outflow ahead of this bow does not appear to be mitigating severe potential. With a 50 kt low-level jet ahead of this activity and ample instability, the damaging wind threat is expected to persist across WW 211, possibly reaching the MO River later this evening. ..Jewell.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD... LAT...LON 39209971 39589911 39939906 40539931 40719901 41039696 41089636 40879600 40559583 40039577 39699594 39439663 39409701 39209971 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE HLC TO 25 NNE HLC TO 55 SSW HSI TO 35 SSW HSI TO 10 SE EAR TO 20 N EAR TO 25 W OLU TO 20 ESE OFK. ..JEWELL..05/17/26 ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...TOP...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC155-170540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POTTAWATTAMIE KSC013-027-029-085-089-117-123-131-141-143-147-149-157-161-163- 183-201-170540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY CLOUD JACKSON JEWELL MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA OSBORNE OTTAWA PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY ROOKS SMITH WASHINGTON NEC001-019-023-025-035-037-053-055-059-067-079-081-095-097-099- 109-121-125-127-129-131-133-143-147-151-153-155-159-169-177-181- Read more

WW 0212 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0212 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0212 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0212 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FNB TO 10 ESE LWD TO 30 N IRK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743 ..SQUITIERI..05/17/26 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC001-025-061-063-075-079-081-115-117-121-129-147-171-197-211- 170340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CALDWELL DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON LINN LIVINGSTON MACON MERCER NODAWAY PUTNAM SCHUYLER SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FNB TO 10 ESE LWD TO 30 N IRK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743 ..SQUITIERI..05/17/26 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC001-025-061-063-075-079-081-115-117-121-129-147-171-197-211- 170340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CALDWELL DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON LINN LIVINGSTON MACON MERCER NODAWAY PUTNAM SCHUYLER SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0742 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TOWARD FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0742 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0836 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Areas affected...far southeast Nebraska toward far northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211... Valid 170136Z - 170330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211 continues. SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out as cells interact with the wind shift/outflow. DISCUSSION...Several cells are currently ongoing from Washington County KS to just south of Lincoln, NE, and these are within the instability axis where MLCAPE is over 3000 J/kg. Surface analysis also shows an outflow boundary just north of these cells and extending into northwest MO, with a more subtle wind shift with northeast winds from just northwest of these cells into northern KS. Area VWPs show the increasing low-level jet with around 35 kt out of the south at Topeka. Given the increased shear with effective SRH now over 200 m2/s2, a brief period in time and space may exist for a brief tornado before these cells are undercut by the outflow. ..Jewell.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40069787 40469718 40769678 40729615 40369608 39949640 39739717 39749761 39929787 40069787 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0743 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 210... FOR PORTONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0743 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 Areas affected...portons of northern Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 210... Valid 170158Z - 170330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 210 continues. SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may still occur with an MCS across northern MO over the next few hours. Isolated severe hail remains possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Multicells and supercells have grown upscale into a southward propagating MCS. A strengthening LLJ is fostering low-level moisture convergence/WAA with this MCS, aiding in its persistence this evening. Given over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE residing ahead of the MCS, a few severe gusts may still occur over the next few hours, before boundary layer stabilization limits wind potential. A few instances of severe hail could also briefly occur with the stronger storm cores. A tornado still cannot be ruled out, either with merging supercell structures, or a resultant embedded mesovortex. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX... LAT...LON 40199493 40489439 40569375 40459285 40059244 39809240 39639271 39629339 39639389 39729427 39839457 40199493 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E FNB TO 10 ESE LWD TO 30 N IRK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743 ..SQUITIERI..05/17/26 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC001-025-061-063-075-079-081-115-117-121-129-147-171-197-211- 170340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CALDWELL DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON LINN LIVINGSTON MACON MERCER NODAWAY PUTNAM SCHUYLER SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 210 TORNADO IA MO 162140Z - 170400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 210 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern into Southwest Iowa Northern Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are forecast to continue to develop and intensify through the late afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail will be possible with the supercells. The more intense supercells will also be capable of a tornado risk through the mid to late evening before a gradual congealing of storms and clustering gradually lessens the overall severe risk. The threat for severe gusts may increase as storms grow upscale into one or more clusters later this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northwest of Lamoni IA to 30 miles east southeast of Chillicothe MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 208...WW 209... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0211 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E LBF TO 25 NNW EAR TO 25 WNW GRI TO 30 N GRI TO 25 WNW OLU TO 15 WSW OFK. ..JEWELL..05/17/26 ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...TOP...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 211 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC155-170340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POTTAWATTAMIE KSC005-013-027-029-043-085-089-117-123-131-141-143-147-149-157- 161-163-183-201-170340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY CLOUD DONIPHAN JACKSON JEWELL MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA OSBORNE OTTAWA PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY ROOKS SMITH WASHINGTON MOC003-005-087-170340- Read more