Storm Prediction Center

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind is possible across parts of the central and eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota Monday into Monday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and central Great Plains during this period. Mid-level heights may tend to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario and Hudson Bay by late Monday night. It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing, and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the north of the international border, may provide support for stronger secondary cyclogenesis near the northern Manitoba/Ontario border into southern Hudson Bay late Monday/Monday night. To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Appalachians. In association with this evolving regime, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low Monday through Monday night across most areas, with the possible exception of parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota ...Northern Great Plains... Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to pass to the north of the international border through this period. However, there appears at least some signal in model output that boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak pre-frontal surface troughing, coincident with southeastward suppression of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, could allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota. Preceding the leading edge of the cooling in lower/mid-levels, it is possible that a zone of strengthening ascent associated with warm advection could support an upscale growing cluster, aided by updraft inflow of moderately unstable air. However, this remains more uncertain at this time. ..Kerr.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind is possible across parts of the central and eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota Monday into Monday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and central Great Plains during this period. Mid-level heights may tend to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario and Hudson Bay by late Monday night. It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing, and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the north of the international border, may provide support for stronger secondary cyclogenesis near the northern Manitoba/Ontario border into southern Hudson Bay late Monday/Monday night. To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Appalachians. In association with this evolving regime, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low Monday through Monday night across most areas, with the possible exception of parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota ...Northern Great Plains... Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to pass to the north of the international border through this period. However, there appears at least some signal in model output that boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak pre-frontal surface troughing, coincident with southeastward suppression of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, could allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota. Preceding the leading edge of the cooling in lower/mid-levels, it is possible that a zone of strengthening ascent associated with warm advection could support an upscale growing cluster, aided by updraft inflow of moderately unstable air. However, this remains more uncertain at this time. ..Kerr.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind is possible across parts of the central and eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota Monday into Monday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and central Great Plains during this period. Mid-level heights may tend to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario and Hudson Bay by late Monday night. It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing, and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the north of the international border, may provide support for stronger secondary cyclogenesis near the northern Manitoba/Ontario border into southern Hudson Bay late Monday/Monday night. To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Appalachians. In association with this evolving regime, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low Monday through Monday night across most areas, with the possible exception of parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota ...Northern Great Plains... Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to pass to the north of the international border through this period. However, there appears at least some signal in model output that boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak pre-frontal surface troughing, coincident with southeastward suppression of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, could allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota. Preceding the leading edge of the cooling in lower/mid-levels, it is possible that a zone of strengthening ascent associated with warm advection could support an upscale growing cluster, aided by updraft inflow of moderately unstable air. However, this remains more uncertain at this time. ..Kerr.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind is possible across parts of the central and eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota Monday into Monday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and central Great Plains during this period. Mid-level heights may tend to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario and Hudson Bay by late Monday night. It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing, and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the north of the international border, may provide support for stronger secondary cyclogenesis near the northern Manitoba/Ontario border into southern Hudson Bay late Monday/Monday night. To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Appalachians. In association with this evolving regime, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low Monday through Monday night across most areas, with the possible exception of parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota ...Northern Great Plains... Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to pass to the north of the international border through this period. However, there appears at least some signal in model output that boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak pre-frontal surface troughing, coincident with southeastward suppression of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, could allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota. Preceding the leading edge of the cooling in lower/mid-levels, it is possible that a zone of strengthening ascent associated with warm advection could support an upscale growing cluster, aided by updraft inflow of moderately unstable air. However, this remains more uncertain at this time. ..Kerr.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind is possible across parts of the central and eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota Monday into Monday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and central Great Plains during this period. Mid-level heights may tend to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario and Hudson Bay by late Monday night. It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing, and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the north of the international border, may provide support for stronger secondary cyclogenesis near the northern Manitoba/Ontario border into southern Hudson Bay late Monday/Monday night. To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Appalachians. In association with this evolving regime, the potential for organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low Monday through Monday night across most areas, with the possible exception of parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota ...Northern Great Plains... Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to pass to the north of the international border through this period. However, there appears at least some signal in model output that boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak pre-frontal surface troughing, coincident with southeastward suppression of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, could allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind across parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota. Preceding the leading edge of the cooling in lower/mid-levels, it is possible that a zone of strengthening ascent associated with warm advection could support an upscale growing cluster, aided by updraft inflow of moderately unstable air. However, this remains more uncertain at this time. ..Kerr.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will primarily be driven by dry thunderstorm potential on Sunday. While confidence in dry thunderstorms is greatest across portions of the Pacific Northwest, more isolated concerns may emerge across eastern Arizona into southwest New Mexico. ...Pacific Northwest... Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Guidance continues to show fairly good agreement in the northward propagation of a shortwave trough across northern CA into southern OR on the western periphery of the upper ridge through the day. A subtle influx of Pacific moisture ahead of the wave coupled with mid-level ascent/cooling will likely support isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into southeast OR and perhaps far northwest NV. Slow storm motions may allow for pockets of wetting rainfall, but fairly dry low-level conditions and PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches will support dry lightning strikes, especially away from the heavier cores. Based on information from local offices, fuels across the region are generally receptive and should support lightning ignitions. Dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to address this concern. ...Eastern Arizona/Southwest New Mexico... A modest influx of mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California into eastern AZ/western NM is anticipated through the day Sunday. Some recent model solutions hint that this moisture will provide sufficient buoyancy for very weak convection by late afternoon when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized. Very weak forcing for ascent under the upper ridge suggests that any thunderstorm potential will most likely be tied to orographic ascent along the eastern Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region. While confidence in thunderstorm development is limited based on the synoptic regime and somewhat limited signal in CAM guidance, the potential for dry thunderstorms over a receptive fuel landscape is highlighted. ..Moore.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will primarily be driven by dry thunderstorm potential on Sunday. While confidence in dry thunderstorms is greatest across portions of the Pacific Northwest, more isolated concerns may emerge across eastern Arizona into southwest New Mexico. ...Pacific Northwest... Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Guidance continues to show fairly good agreement in the northward propagation of a shortwave trough across northern CA into southern OR on the western periphery of the upper ridge through the day. A subtle influx of Pacific moisture ahead of the wave coupled with mid-level ascent/cooling will likely support isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into southeast OR and perhaps far northwest NV. Slow storm motions may allow for pockets of wetting rainfall, but fairly dry low-level conditions and PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches will support dry lightning strikes, especially away from the heavier cores. Based on information from local offices, fuels across the region are generally receptive and should support lightning ignitions. Dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to address this concern. ...Eastern Arizona/Southwest New Mexico... A modest influx of mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California into eastern AZ/western NM is anticipated through the day Sunday. Some recent model solutions hint that this moisture will provide sufficient buoyancy for very weak convection by late afternoon when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized. Very weak forcing for ascent under the upper ridge suggests that any thunderstorm potential will most likely be tied to orographic ascent along the eastern Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region. While confidence in thunderstorm development is limited based on the synoptic regime and somewhat limited signal in CAM guidance, the potential for dry thunderstorms over a receptive fuel landscape is highlighted. ..Moore.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will primarily be driven by dry thunderstorm potential on Sunday. While confidence in dry thunderstorms is greatest across portions of the Pacific Northwest, more isolated concerns may emerge across eastern Arizona into southwest New Mexico. ...Pacific Northwest... Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Guidance continues to show fairly good agreement in the northward propagation of a shortwave trough across northern CA into southern OR on the western periphery of the upper ridge through the day. A subtle influx of Pacific moisture ahead of the wave coupled with mid-level ascent/cooling will likely support isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into southeast OR and perhaps far northwest NV. Slow storm motions may allow for pockets of wetting rainfall, but fairly dry low-level conditions and PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches will support dry lightning strikes, especially away from the heavier cores. Based on information from local offices, fuels across the region are generally receptive and should support lightning ignitions. Dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to address this concern. ...Eastern Arizona/Southwest New Mexico... A modest influx of mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California into eastern AZ/western NM is anticipated through the day Sunday. Some recent model solutions hint that this moisture will provide sufficient buoyancy for very weak convection by late afternoon when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized. Very weak forcing for ascent under the upper ridge suggests that any thunderstorm potential will most likely be tied to orographic ascent along the eastern Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region. While confidence in thunderstorm development is limited based on the synoptic regime and somewhat limited signal in CAM guidance, the potential for dry thunderstorms over a receptive fuel landscape is highlighted. ..Moore.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will primarily be driven by dry thunderstorm potential on Sunday. While confidence in dry thunderstorms is greatest across portions of the Pacific Northwest, more isolated concerns may emerge across eastern Arizona into southwest New Mexico. ...Pacific Northwest... Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Guidance continues to show fairly good agreement in the northward propagation of a shortwave trough across northern CA into southern OR on the western periphery of the upper ridge through the day. A subtle influx of Pacific moisture ahead of the wave coupled with mid-level ascent/cooling will likely support isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into southeast OR and perhaps far northwest NV. Slow storm motions may allow for pockets of wetting rainfall, but fairly dry low-level conditions and PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches will support dry lightning strikes, especially away from the heavier cores. Based on information from local offices, fuels across the region are generally receptive and should support lightning ignitions. Dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to address this concern. ...Eastern Arizona/Southwest New Mexico... A modest influx of mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California into eastern AZ/western NM is anticipated through the day Sunday. Some recent model solutions hint that this moisture will provide sufficient buoyancy for very weak convection by late afternoon when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized. Very weak forcing for ascent under the upper ridge suggests that any thunderstorm potential will most likely be tied to orographic ascent along the eastern Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region. While confidence in thunderstorm development is limited based on the synoptic regime and somewhat limited signal in CAM guidance, the potential for dry thunderstorms over a receptive fuel landscape is highlighted. ..Moore.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is noted across the southwestern CONUS/northwest Mexico in early-morning water-vapor imagery. This ridge is expected to build northward over the next 24 hours and will maintain very dry, but relatively benign, conditions across the Four Corners/Great Basin region where fuels remain the driest. However, more focused fire weather concerns may emerge within the lee of the Cascades and across portions of central Colorado this afternoon and early evening. ...Cascades... A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in water-vapor imagery approaching the Pacific Northwest. Stronger low and mid-level flow associated with this wave will overspread the Cascades through the day, resulting in strengthening downslope winds along the eastern slopes. Latest high-res guidance depicts 15-20 mph winds through the more prominent gaps where downslope warming/drying will likely result in pockets of 20-25% relative humidity. Although sustained elevated fire weather conditions may be somewhat localized, recent fire activity suggests fuels are adequately receptive to support the fire weather concern. ...Colorado... The 00 UTC GJT sounding from western CO sampled very steep (9.4 C/km) mid-level lapse rates with adequate mid-level moisture to support weak buoyancy despite a PWAT value of only 0.35 inches. This air mass will advect eastward over the next 18 hours and will likely support pockets of adequate MUCAPE for weak convection this afternoon. Despite upper-level height rises, upslope flow along the central Rockies may support a few thunderstorms to the west of the Front Range where very dry low-level conditions will be favorable for dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuels across the region and some potential for dry lightning strikes, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were maintained. ..Moore.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is noted across the southwestern CONUS/northwest Mexico in early-morning water-vapor imagery. This ridge is expected to build northward over the next 24 hours and will maintain very dry, but relatively benign, conditions across the Four Corners/Great Basin region where fuels remain the driest. However, more focused fire weather concerns may emerge within the lee of the Cascades and across portions of central Colorado this afternoon and early evening. ...Cascades... A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in water-vapor imagery approaching the Pacific Northwest. Stronger low and mid-level flow associated with this wave will overspread the Cascades through the day, resulting in strengthening downslope winds along the eastern slopes. Latest high-res guidance depicts 15-20 mph winds through the more prominent gaps where downslope warming/drying will likely result in pockets of 20-25% relative humidity. Although sustained elevated fire weather conditions may be somewhat localized, recent fire activity suggests fuels are adequately receptive to support the fire weather concern. ...Colorado... The 00 UTC GJT sounding from western CO sampled very steep (9.4 C/km) mid-level lapse rates with adequate mid-level moisture to support weak buoyancy despite a PWAT value of only 0.35 inches. This air mass will advect eastward over the next 18 hours and will likely support pockets of adequate MUCAPE for weak convection this afternoon. Despite upper-level height rises, upslope flow along the central Rockies may support a few thunderstorms to the west of the Front Range where very dry low-level conditions will be favorable for dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuels across the region and some potential for dry lightning strikes, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were maintained. ..Moore.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is noted across the southwestern CONUS/northwest Mexico in early-morning water-vapor imagery. This ridge is expected to build northward over the next 24 hours and will maintain very dry, but relatively benign, conditions across the Four Corners/Great Basin region where fuels remain the driest. However, more focused fire weather concerns may emerge within the lee of the Cascades and across portions of central Colorado this afternoon and early evening. ...Cascades... A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in water-vapor imagery approaching the Pacific Northwest. Stronger low and mid-level flow associated with this wave will overspread the Cascades through the day, resulting in strengthening downslope winds along the eastern slopes. Latest high-res guidance depicts 15-20 mph winds through the more prominent gaps where downslope warming/drying will likely result in pockets of 20-25% relative humidity. Although sustained elevated fire weather conditions may be somewhat localized, recent fire activity suggests fuels are adequately receptive to support the fire weather concern. ...Colorado... The 00 UTC GJT sounding from western CO sampled very steep (9.4 C/km) mid-level lapse rates with adequate mid-level moisture to support weak buoyancy despite a PWAT value of only 0.35 inches. This air mass will advect eastward over the next 18 hours and will likely support pockets of adequate MUCAPE for weak convection this afternoon. Despite upper-level height rises, upslope flow along the central Rockies may support a few thunderstorms to the west of the Front Range where very dry low-level conditions will be favorable for dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuels across the region and some potential for dry lightning strikes, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were maintained. ..Moore.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging is noted across the southwestern CONUS/northwest Mexico in early-morning water-vapor imagery. This ridge is expected to build northward over the next 24 hours and will maintain very dry, but relatively benign, conditions across the Four Corners/Great Basin region where fuels remain the driest. However, more focused fire weather concerns may emerge within the lee of the Cascades and across portions of central Colorado this afternoon and early evening. ...Cascades... A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in water-vapor imagery approaching the Pacific Northwest. Stronger low and mid-level flow associated with this wave will overspread the Cascades through the day, resulting in strengthening downslope winds along the eastern slopes. Latest high-res guidance depicts 15-20 mph winds through the more prominent gaps where downslope warming/drying will likely result in pockets of 20-25% relative humidity. Although sustained elevated fire weather conditions may be somewhat localized, recent fire activity suggests fuels are adequately receptive to support the fire weather concern. ...Colorado... The 00 UTC GJT sounding from western CO sampled very steep (9.4 C/km) mid-level lapse rates with adequate mid-level moisture to support weak buoyancy despite a PWAT value of only 0.35 inches. This air mass will advect eastward over the next 18 hours and will likely support pockets of adequate MUCAPE for weak convection this afternoon. Despite upper-level height rises, upslope flow along the central Rockies may support a few thunderstorms to the west of the Front Range where very dry low-level conditions will be favorable for dry thunderstorms. Given receptive fuels across the region and some potential for dry lightning strikes, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were maintained. ..Moore.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0453 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0453 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While ridging in the subtropical latitudes remains relatively suppressed, models indicate that the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes through this period. Within this regime, a mid-level short wave trough is forecast to accelerate east of the Canadian Maritimes and New England early Sunday, before merging into a significant trough and embedded mid-level low digging across/southeast of the Labrador Sea. Upstream, mid-level troughing, including at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations, is forecast to continue progressing across and east-northeast of the Canadian Prairies. It appears that forcing with the lead impulse may support modest surface cyclogenesis across northern Saskatchewan through Manitoba. However, even with the trailing perturbation, it appears that forcing for ascent will generally remain focused to the north of the international border. To the south of the international border, models suggest that mid-level ridging, across the eastern Great Basin into north central Great Plains at the outset of the period, will expand across the middle Missouri Valley toward upper Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, it appears that weak troughing, likely with a number of embedded convectively generated perturbations, will continue to overspread the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through northern Mid Atlantic. To the east and south of this troughing, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content may again become supportive of moderate to strong potential instability. However, given the generally weak nature of the large-scale flow and synoptic forcing, severe thunderstorm potential will largely be influenced by sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this extended time frame. This continues to be reflected in sizable spread evident in convection allowing and related guidance. ...Mid Atlantic... There remains little general change from prior model output. It still appears that a low-level baroclinic zone could remain fairly well defined to the north and northeast of a surface low forecast to develop to the lee of the Blue Ridge by late Sunday afternoon. Both of these features could become a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development, though there appears a better signal in latest guidance for activity to form off the higher terrain into the lee surface trough, at least initially, before perhaps propagating along or just south of the remnant front toward coastal areas. Aided by a lingering modest, but weakening, belt of convectively augmented westerly flow, it is possible that one or two clusters could organize and become accompanied by better potential to produce damaging wind gusts late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Uncertainty appears even greater than suggested in prior model runs, particularly with regard to whether there will become a well-defined boundary, supported by differential surface heating by late afternoon, to focus strong thunderstorm development. The higher terrain of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity appears to offer the most probable focus for thunderstorm development by late Sunday afternoon. There is some signal that activity could consolidate into a cluster while propagating southeast of the higher terrain into a residual deeply mixed boundary layer over the high plains Sunday evening, accompanied by potential to produce strong wind gusts. ...Northwestern North Dakota... There remains a mixed signal within model output concerning potential destabilization and thunderstorm development along surface troughing extending south of the international border late Sunday afternoon and evening. With stronger mid/upper support likely to remain to the north of the border, the potential seems low, but low severe probabilities will be maintained, at least for now. ..Kerr.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While ridging in the subtropical latitudes remains relatively suppressed, models indicate that the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes through this period. Within this regime, a mid-level short wave trough is forecast to accelerate east of the Canadian Maritimes and New England early Sunday, before merging into a significant trough and embedded mid-level low digging across/southeast of the Labrador Sea. Upstream, mid-level troughing, including at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations, is forecast to continue progressing across and east-northeast of the Canadian Prairies. It appears that forcing with the lead impulse may support modest surface cyclogenesis across northern Saskatchewan through Manitoba. However, even with the trailing perturbation, it appears that forcing for ascent will generally remain focused to the north of the international border. To the south of the international border, models suggest that mid-level ridging, across the eastern Great Basin into north central Great Plains at the outset of the period, will expand across the middle Missouri Valley toward upper Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, it appears that weak troughing, likely with a number of embedded convectively generated perturbations, will continue to overspread the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through northern Mid Atlantic. To the east and south of this troughing, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content may again become supportive of moderate to strong potential instability. However, given the generally weak nature of the large-scale flow and synoptic forcing, severe thunderstorm potential will largely be influenced by sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this extended time frame. This continues to be reflected in sizable spread evident in convection allowing and related guidance. ...Mid Atlantic... There remains little general change from prior model output. It still appears that a low-level baroclinic zone could remain fairly well defined to the north and northeast of a surface low forecast to develop to the lee of the Blue Ridge by late Sunday afternoon. Both of these features could become a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development, though there appears a better signal in latest guidance for activity to form off the higher terrain into the lee surface trough, at least initially, before perhaps propagating along or just south of the remnant front toward coastal areas. Aided by a lingering modest, but weakening, belt of convectively augmented westerly flow, it is possible that one or two clusters could organize and become accompanied by better potential to produce damaging wind gusts late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Uncertainty appears even greater than suggested in prior model runs, particularly with regard to whether there will become a well-defined boundary, supported by differential surface heating by late afternoon, to focus strong thunderstorm development. The higher terrain of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity appears to offer the most probable focus for thunderstorm development by late Sunday afternoon. There is some signal that activity could consolidate into a cluster while propagating southeast of the higher terrain into a residual deeply mixed boundary layer over the high plains Sunday evening, accompanied by potential to produce strong wind gusts. ...Northwestern North Dakota... There remains a mixed signal within model output concerning potential destabilization and thunderstorm development along surface troughing extending south of the international border late Sunday afternoon and evening. With stronger mid/upper support likely to remain to the north of the border, the potential seems low, but low severe probabilities will be maintained, at least for now. ..Kerr.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While ridging in the subtropical latitudes remains relatively suppressed, models indicate that the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes through this period. Within this regime, a mid-level short wave trough is forecast to accelerate east of the Canadian Maritimes and New England early Sunday, before merging into a significant trough and embedded mid-level low digging across/southeast of the Labrador Sea. Upstream, mid-level troughing, including at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations, is forecast to continue progressing across and east-northeast of the Canadian Prairies. It appears that forcing with the lead impulse may support modest surface cyclogenesis across northern Saskatchewan through Manitoba. However, even with the trailing perturbation, it appears that forcing for ascent will generally remain focused to the north of the international border. To the south of the international border, models suggest that mid-level ridging, across the eastern Great Basin into north central Great Plains at the outset of the period, will expand across the middle Missouri Valley toward upper Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, it appears that weak troughing, likely with a number of embedded convectively generated perturbations, will continue to overspread the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through northern Mid Atlantic. To the east and south of this troughing, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content may again become supportive of moderate to strong potential instability. However, given the generally weak nature of the large-scale flow and synoptic forcing, severe thunderstorm potential will largely be influenced by sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this extended time frame. This continues to be reflected in sizable spread evident in convection allowing and related guidance. ...Mid Atlantic... There remains little general change from prior model output. It still appears that a low-level baroclinic zone could remain fairly well defined to the north and northeast of a surface low forecast to develop to the lee of the Blue Ridge by late Sunday afternoon. Both of these features could become a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development, though there appears a better signal in latest guidance for activity to form off the higher terrain into the lee surface trough, at least initially, before perhaps propagating along or just south of the remnant front toward coastal areas. Aided by a lingering modest, but weakening, belt of convectively augmented westerly flow, it is possible that one or two clusters could organize and become accompanied by better potential to produce damaging wind gusts late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Uncertainty appears even greater than suggested in prior model runs, particularly with regard to whether there will become a well-defined boundary, supported by differential surface heating by late afternoon, to focus strong thunderstorm development. The higher terrain of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity appears to offer the most probable focus for thunderstorm development by late Sunday afternoon. There is some signal that activity could consolidate into a cluster while propagating southeast of the higher terrain into a residual deeply mixed boundary layer over the high plains Sunday evening, accompanied by potential to produce strong wind gusts. ...Northwestern North Dakota... There remains a mixed signal within model output concerning potential destabilization and thunderstorm development along surface troughing extending south of the international border late Sunday afternoon and evening. With stronger mid/upper support likely to remain to the north of the border, the potential seems low, but low severe probabilities will be maintained, at least for now. ..Kerr.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While ridging in the subtropical latitudes remains relatively suppressed, models indicate that the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes through this period. Within this regime, a mid-level short wave trough is forecast to accelerate east of the Canadian Maritimes and New England early Sunday, before merging into a significant trough and embedded mid-level low digging across/southeast of the Labrador Sea. Upstream, mid-level troughing, including at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations, is forecast to continue progressing across and east-northeast of the Canadian Prairies. It appears that forcing with the lead impulse may support modest surface cyclogenesis across northern Saskatchewan through Manitoba. However, even with the trailing perturbation, it appears that forcing for ascent will generally remain focused to the north of the international border. To the south of the international border, models suggest that mid-level ridging, across the eastern Great Basin into north central Great Plains at the outset of the period, will expand across the middle Missouri Valley toward upper Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, it appears that weak troughing, likely with a number of embedded convectively generated perturbations, will continue to overspread the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through northern Mid Atlantic. To the east and south of this troughing, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content may again become supportive of moderate to strong potential instability. However, given the generally weak nature of the large-scale flow and synoptic forcing, severe thunderstorm potential will largely be influenced by sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this extended time frame. This continues to be reflected in sizable spread evident in convection allowing and related guidance. ...Mid Atlantic... There remains little general change from prior model output. It still appears that a low-level baroclinic zone could remain fairly well defined to the north and northeast of a surface low forecast to develop to the lee of the Blue Ridge by late Sunday afternoon. Both of these features could become a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development, though there appears a better signal in latest guidance for activity to form off the higher terrain into the lee surface trough, at least initially, before perhaps propagating along or just south of the remnant front toward coastal areas. Aided by a lingering modest, but weakening, belt of convectively augmented westerly flow, it is possible that one or two clusters could organize and become accompanied by better potential to produce damaging wind gusts late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Uncertainty appears even greater than suggested in prior model runs, particularly with regard to whether there will become a well-defined boundary, supported by differential surface heating by late afternoon, to focus strong thunderstorm development. The higher terrain of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity appears to offer the most probable focus for thunderstorm development by late Sunday afternoon. There is some signal that activity could consolidate into a cluster while propagating southeast of the higher terrain into a residual deeply mixed boundary layer over the high plains Sunday evening, accompanied by potential to produce strong wind gusts. ...Northwestern North Dakota... There remains a mixed signal within model output concerning potential destabilization and thunderstorm development along surface troughing extending south of the international border late Sunday afternoon and evening. With stronger mid/upper support likely to remain to the north of the border, the potential seems low, but low severe probabilities will be maintained, at least for now. ..Kerr.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... While ridging in the subtropical latitudes remains relatively suppressed, models indicate that the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes through this period. Within this regime, a mid-level short wave trough is forecast to accelerate east of the Canadian Maritimes and New England early Sunday, before merging into a significant trough and embedded mid-level low digging across/southeast of the Labrador Sea. Upstream, mid-level troughing, including at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations, is forecast to continue progressing across and east-northeast of the Canadian Prairies. It appears that forcing with the lead impulse may support modest surface cyclogenesis across northern Saskatchewan through Manitoba. However, even with the trailing perturbation, it appears that forcing for ascent will generally remain focused to the north of the international border. To the south of the international border, models suggest that mid-level ridging, across the eastern Great Basin into north central Great Plains at the outset of the period, will expand across the middle Missouri Valley toward upper Mississippi Valley Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream, it appears that weak troughing, likely with a number of embedded convectively generated perturbations, will continue to overspread the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through northern Mid Atlantic. To the east and south of this troughing, seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content may again become supportive of moderate to strong potential instability. However, given the generally weak nature of the large-scale flow and synoptic forcing, severe thunderstorm potential will largely be influenced by sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this extended time frame. This continues to be reflected in sizable spread evident in convection allowing and related guidance. ...Mid Atlantic... There remains little general change from prior model output. It still appears that a low-level baroclinic zone could remain fairly well defined to the north and northeast of a surface low forecast to develop to the lee of the Blue Ridge by late Sunday afternoon. Both of these features could become a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development, though there appears a better signal in latest guidance for activity to form off the higher terrain into the lee surface trough, at least initially, before perhaps propagating along or just south of the remnant front toward coastal areas. Aided by a lingering modest, but weakening, belt of convectively augmented westerly flow, it is possible that one or two clusters could organize and become accompanied by better potential to produce damaging wind gusts late Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Uncertainty appears even greater than suggested in prior model runs, particularly with regard to whether there will become a well-defined boundary, supported by differential surface heating by late afternoon, to focus strong thunderstorm development. The higher terrain of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity appears to offer the most probable focus for thunderstorm development by late Sunday afternoon. There is some signal that activity could consolidate into a cluster while propagating southeast of the higher terrain into a residual deeply mixed boundary layer over the high plains Sunday evening, accompanied by potential to produce strong wind gusts. ...Northwestern North Dakota... There remains a mixed signal within model output concerning potential destabilization and thunderstorm development along surface troughing extending south of the international border late Sunday afternoon and evening. With stronger mid/upper support likely to remain to the north of the border, the potential seems low, but low severe probabilities will be maintained, at least for now. ..Kerr.. 07/04/2026 Read more

MD 1486 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST CO INTO NORTHWEST KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1486 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...Parts of northeast CO into northwest KS and far southwest NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 040550Z - 040645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and localized strong to severe gusts will be possible into the early morning. DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in coverage and intensity late tonight across parts of northeast CO, likely aided by warm advection in the 800-700 mb layer, to the north of a front draped from east-central CO into northwest KS. Moist low-level easterly flow beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is resulting in MUCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg, with effective bulk shear likely around 30-40 kt for convection rooted around 800 mb. This environment is supportive of at least transient storm organization, though rather weak upper-level flow will likely result in a complex storm mode. This could temper the longevity of the hail threat with any particular storm, though the environment otherwise supports hail approaching 2 inches in diameter. Localized severe gusts will also be possible in association with the strongest downdrafts and any larger-scale outflows. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39200440 40230355 40410199 40290038 39430011 38940018 38690038 38590081 38960223 39000298 38990351 38960415 39200440 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more