Storm Prediction Center

WW 0450 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 450 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SNY TO 30 SSW MHN TO 30 ENE CDR. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-017-031-041-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-040340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0450 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 450 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SNY TO 30 SSW MHN TO 30 ENE CDR. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-017-031-041-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-040340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 450 SEVERE TSTM NE 032225Z - 040500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 450 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Nebraska * Effective this Friday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail this evening, potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter on an isolated basis. Some chance also exists for upscale growth into a bowing cluster this evening. If this occurs, then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds would exist. Peak gusts could reach up to 65-75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Mullen NE to 40 miles north northeast of Broken Bow NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...WW 446...WW 447...WW 448...WW 449... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HLC TO 40 E HLC TO 40 S EAR. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...TOP...DDC...GID...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC027-029-051-089-105-117-123-131-141-143-149-157-161-167-183- 195-201-040340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLOUD ELLIS JEWELL LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA OSBORNE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY RUSSELL SMITH TREGO WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HLC TO 40 E HLC TO 40 S EAR. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...TOP...DDC...GID...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC027-029-051-089-105-117-123-131-141-143-149-157-161-167-183- 195-201-040340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLOUD ELLIS JEWELL LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA OSBORNE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY RUSSELL SMITH TREGO WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HLC TO 40 E HLC TO 40 S EAR. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...TOP...DDC...GID...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC027-029-051-089-105-117-123-131-141-143-149-157-161-167-183- 195-201-040340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLOUD ELLIS JEWELL LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA OSBORNE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY RUSSELL SMITH TREGO WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HLC TO 40 E HLC TO 40 S EAR. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...TOP...DDC...GID...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC027-029-051-089-105-117-123-131-141-143-149-157-161-167-183- 195-201-040340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLOUD ELLIS JEWELL LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL NEMAHA OSBORNE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY RUSSELL SMITH TREGO WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 452 SEVERE TSTM KS 040000Z - 040600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 452 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 700 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central and Northeast Kansas * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 700 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Supercells have developed along a boundary this evening, and they should continue to pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe/damaging winds up to 65-75 mph may occur as thunderstorms develop into one or more bowing clusters while tracking eastward over the next several hours. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Russell KS to 55 miles northeast of Manhattan KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 446...WW 447...WW 448...WW 449...WW 450...WW 451... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E OTM TO 45 SSW RFD TO 40 SSW RAC TO 20 WSW RAC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482 ..MOORE..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-031-037-043-053-063-073-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-105- 123-131-155-175-197-040340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD GRUNDY HENRY IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON MARSHALL MERCER PUTNAM STARK WILL INC007-073-089-111-127-040340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER Read more

MD 1481 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446...450... FOR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026 Areas affected...Southwestern South Dakota...Northwestern and North-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446...450... Valid 040027Z - 040230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446, 450 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will likely continue over the next few hours across parts of southwestern South Dakota into northwest and north-central Nebraska. DISCUSSION...On surface analysis, an axis of low-level convergence is located from western Nebraska northward into southwestern South Dakota, along which surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to lower 60s F. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis of convergence, along which the RAP has a corridor of MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the North Platte and Rapid City WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 50 knot range. This environment will support a severe threat this evening. Supercells will be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Short intense line segments will also be capable of strong to severe gusts. The threat will eventually move southeastward into north-central Nebraska later this evening. ..Broyles.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42139945 42509964 43160013 43780065 44320145 44550203 44570259 44360335 44010390 43780397 43540385 43110319 42320245 41560190 41260125 41310063 41499990 41839956 42139945 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE OTM TO 15 NNE MLI TO 15 SSW RFD TO 15 E JVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482 ..MOORE..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-031-037-043-053-063-073-075-089-091-093-097-099-103- 105-111-123-131-155-175-195-197-040240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FORD GRUNDY HENRY IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY MARSHALL MERCER PUTNAM STARK WHITESIDE WILL INC007-073-089-111-127-040240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CDR TO 35 SSW RAP TO 10 NNW PHP TO 10 SE PIR. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-047-071-075-095-102-121-123-040240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON JONES MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CDR TO 35 SSW RAP TO 10 NNW PHP TO 10 SE PIR. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-047-071-075-095-102-121-123-040240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON JONES MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CDR TO 35 SSW RAP TO 10 NNW PHP TO 10 SE PIR. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-047-071-075-095-102-121-123-040240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON JONES MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CDR TO 35 SSW RAP TO 10 NNW PHP TO 10 SE PIR. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-047-071-075-095-102-121-123-040240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT FALL RIVER JACKSON JONES MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0450 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 450 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-031-041-049-069-075-091-101-103-111-113-115-117- 149-161-171-040240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CNK TO 20 W BIE TO LNK TO 20 SSW TQE TO 20 E DNS. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-085-129-137-145-155-165-040240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT HARRISON MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY NEC025-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-153-040240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS DOUGLAS GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON SARPY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging gusts will continue across portions of the Mid Atlantic and the central/northern Plains. More isolated to scattered severe storms will also continue across portions of the High Plains to the northern Rockies. ...Discussion... Several clusters of widely scattered thunderstorms in many different regimes are ongoing across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest and across the Mid-Atlantic. The greatest threat through the remainder of the evening will be for damaging wind, with a few instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado from the Plains to the Midwest. Across the central/northern Plains, activity is mainly tied to lee troughing and broad ascent from the mid-level shortwave trough. A few embedded supercells will pose potential for large hail through the evening but the main threat is shifting to become damaging wind, with several clusters attempting to grow upscale. The more focused corridor of severe wind threat through the evening will likely extend from southeastern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where a more robust line has developed amid a strongly unstable air mass. Deep layer shear decreases with southward extent into Kansas, however, storms may be driven by cold pool dynamics south and eastward through the evening. Across portions of southern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and eastern Colorado, a few more discrete supercell clusters are ongoing. This region will be where the greatest short term risk will be for large to very large hail, particularly across western Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota. Across portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, a cluster of storms is moving across northern Illinois towards the Chicago Metro. This line is tracking along a MLCAPE gradient that extends across northern Illinois into northern Indiana/southern Michigan. Storms will likely advance eastward along this gradient through the evening, with potential for damaging winds. Another robust line is moving eastward through New York City and northern New Jersey. This has produced a swath of measured severe wind and continues eastward towards the coast. ..Thornton.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging gusts will continue across portions of the Mid Atlantic and the central/northern Plains. More isolated to scattered severe storms will also continue across portions of the High Plains to the northern Rockies. ...Discussion... Several clusters of widely scattered thunderstorms in many different regimes are ongoing across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest and across the Mid-Atlantic. The greatest threat through the remainder of the evening will be for damaging wind, with a few instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado from the Plains to the Midwest. Across the central/northern Plains, activity is mainly tied to lee troughing and broad ascent from the mid-level shortwave trough. A few embedded supercells will pose potential for large hail through the evening but the main threat is shifting to become damaging wind, with several clusters attempting to grow upscale. The more focused corridor of severe wind threat through the evening will likely extend from southeastern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where a more robust line has developed amid a strongly unstable air mass. Deep layer shear decreases with southward extent into Kansas, however, storms may be driven by cold pool dynamics south and eastward through the evening. Across portions of southern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and eastern Colorado, a few more discrete supercell clusters are ongoing. This region will be where the greatest short term risk will be for large to very large hail, particularly across western Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota. Across portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, a cluster of storms is moving across northern Illinois towards the Chicago Metro. This line is tracking along a MLCAPE gradient that extends across northern Illinois into northern Indiana/southern Michigan. Storms will likely advance eastward along this gradient through the evening, with potential for damaging winds. Another robust line is moving eastward through New York City and northern New Jersey. This has produced a swath of measured severe wind and continues eastward towards the coast. ..Thornton.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging gusts will continue across portions of the Mid Atlantic and the central/northern Plains. More isolated to scattered severe storms will also continue across portions of the High Plains to the northern Rockies. ...Discussion... Several clusters of widely scattered thunderstorms in many different regimes are ongoing across portions of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest and across the Mid-Atlantic. The greatest threat through the remainder of the evening will be for damaging wind, with a few instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado from the Plains to the Midwest. Across the central/northern Plains, activity is mainly tied to lee troughing and broad ascent from the mid-level shortwave trough. A few embedded supercells will pose potential for large hail through the evening but the main threat is shifting to become damaging wind, with several clusters attempting to grow upscale. The more focused corridor of severe wind threat through the evening will likely extend from southeastern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where a more robust line has developed amid a strongly unstable air mass. Deep layer shear decreases with southward extent into Kansas, however, storms may be driven by cold pool dynamics south and eastward through the evening. Across portions of southern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and eastern Colorado, a few more discrete supercell clusters are ongoing. This region will be where the greatest short term risk will be for large to very large hail, particularly across western Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota. Across portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, a cluster of storms is moving across northern Illinois towards the Chicago Metro. This line is tracking along a MLCAPE gradient that extends across northern Illinois into northern Indiana/southern Michigan. Storms will likely advance eastward along this gradient through the evening, with potential for damaging winds. Another robust line is moving eastward through New York City and northern New Jersey. This has produced a swath of measured severe wind and continues eastward towards the coast. ..Thornton.. 07/04/2026 Read more