Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible initially this afternoon, before one or more bowing clusters leads to a greater threat for severe/damaging winds this evening. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS should further amplify today as an embedded mid-level jet and associated shortwave trough move from the West Coast to the Four Corners region through the period. A broad zone of around 40-50 kt southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today from the southern/central High Plains to the Upper Midwest, with multiple small-scale perturbations forecast to advance northeastward across these regions. At the surface, a low over western KS this morning is expected to gradually develop northeastward towards the KS/NE border vicinity this evening. A dryline trailing from this low will mix eastward through late afternoon peak heating across the southern/central High Plains. A warm front will attempt to lift northward today across NE/IA into southeast SD and parts of southern MN, while a cold front is forecast to gradually advance southeastward across the northern/central Plains through the period. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Initial thunderstorm development appears likely across eastern CO this afternoon in a low-level upslope flow regime. This activity will likely become supercellular and capable of producing large to very large hail given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and moderate instability. By 20-22Z, additional robust convection is expected to develop along/near the cold front across north-central NE/south-central SD in a rapidly destabilizing airmass. There is still some uncertainty with how far north the warm front and related rich low-level moisture will reach across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, especially given ongoing convection and related outflow this morning across NE/IA. Still, an increasing large hail threat remains evident with any convection that develops along/near the cold front this afternoon, as ample MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts, including supercells initially. A strong tornado threat will exist with any of these supercells that can become/remain surface based, as low-level shear strengthens through the late afternoon/early evening. A greater threat for severe/damaging winds should develop as convection quickly grows upscale into bowing clusters this evening. The northeastward extent of this severe wind threat remains a bit uncertain, especially into southern/central MN where the warm front is forecast to reach. A risk for embedded QLCS tornadoes may continue with the surface-based portion of the cluster. Thunderstorm initiation farther south along the length of the dryline appears somewhat conditional given modest large-scale ascent. But, most guidance continues to show at least isolated high-based convection developing by late afternoon across parts of north-central KS southward into the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK. Any thunderstorms which can be sustained will pose a threat for large to very large hail and tornadoes, especially across KS where a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will enhance 0-1 km shear. A strong tornado appears possible this evening with any supercell that can persist, although there should be a tendency for upscale growth into a severe wind producing cluster with time as the cold front overtakes the dryline. ...Great Lakes/Lower Michigan... Recent radar and visible satellite imagery show an MCV associated with earlier convection across the central Plains is present over IA this morning. This feature is forecast to track east-northeastward today, and should approach eastern WI and Lower MI by late afternoon/early evening. Modest enhancement to the low/mid-level wind field should exist in close proximity to this MCV, and the surface warm front is expected to gradually develop northward across these regions through the day. Some intensification of convection is possible this afternoon/evening along and near the warm front, with sufficient instability and shear to support a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado. A Slight Risk has been added for parts of Lower MI given increased confidence in this scenario occurring. ...Southeast... On the western periphery of a surface high centered over the western Atlantic, diurnally maximized thunderstorm development should focus from the southern Appalachians across GA and the interior/western FL Peninsula. Even though deep-layer shear will remain weak, a favorable thermodynamic environment with steepened low-level lapse rates should support strong to pulse-severe type convection capable of producing isolated wind damage/downbursts and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...Central and North Texas/ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A fairly robust cap is expected to remain across the southern extent of the warm sector today, with minimal/nebulous large-scale ascent over the southern Plains. Still, some guidance suggests elevated thunderstorms may develop through peak afternoon heating across parts of northeast TX into the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley in a persistent low-level warm advection regime. If this occurs, then isolated severe hail and damaging winds would be possible given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Mid-Atlantic... Mid-level ridging should build over the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon, which should tend to suppress most convection. However, a weak mid-level perturbation noted in water vapor imagery this morning over OH may support isolated convective development this afternoon across parts of MD/PA and vicinity. The overall environment does not appear overly favorable for organized severe thunderstorms, but gusty winds could occur with any of the stronger cores that may develop. ..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/17/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ... D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday... On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat. D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ... D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday... On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat. D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ... D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday... On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat. D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ... D4/Wednesday - D8/Sunday... On D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, a cold front will move southeastward across the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley, extending east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. A severe threat could develop along and ahead of the front each afternoon. However, strongest upper-level flow becomes displaced to the north from the better instability, which will reside along and south of the front across the southeastern US. There will be some potential for high based thunderstorm development within the upslope regime across New Mexico into far western Texas D4/Wednesday, with potential for large hail. Overall, there is low confidence in a widespread/organized severe threat. D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, moist southerly return flow will begin across the southern/central Plains into the weekend. It is likely that the cold front will stall becoming a diffuse stationary boundary extending across the southern Plains into the Southeast, with thunderstorm activity along and south of the boundary each day. Overall, forcing for ascent will remain limited with generally weak flow and height rises across the Plains. Confidence in a more focused corridor of severe weather threat remains low at this time. Read more

MD 0746 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0746 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Areas affected...central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 170808Z - 170945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this morning across Nebraska. Although an isolated large hail report or two may occur, the overall trend should preclude the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...A west-to-east band of thunderstorms have developed this morning across central Nebraska in the wake of last evening's MCS. More specifically, these storms have developed within a warm-air advection (WAA)/isentropic ascent regime in the 850-700-millibar layer ascending atop the outflow-modified boundary layer remnant from last evening's convection. These elevated thunderstorms will have access to MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg and the strongest of the updrafts -- typically early in their lifecycle -- will be capable of producing hail. With time, the continued WAA should support a congealing of thunderstorm updrafts and a lessening of any severe potential. Thus, a watch is not anticipated. ..Marsh/Gleason.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41030113 41590083 41779949 41779807 41429762 41029757 40829823 40790001 40770093 41030113 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the portions of the Midwest and south to the Southern Plains. Storms will pose a risk for primarily damaging wind and hail. ...Synopsis... A cold front will extend from the Great Lakes region to the Midwest and south into the Southern Plains D3/Tuesday. The upper-level trough will continue lifting north and east into the Great Lakes through the period. ...Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes... Some remnant elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing toward the start of the period D3/Tuesday across the upper Midwest. This may pose some potential for a few instances of severe hail. Redevelopment of thunderstorms is likely along the front by the afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and moderate instability ahead of the front may support supercells initially capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado. Linear forcing with the cold front will likely lead to upscale growth and potential for damaging wind downstream into the Ohio Valley through time. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Trends continue for more progressive movement of the cold front through Oklahoma/north Texas Tuesday morning. As a result, probabilities were shifted eastward again with this update. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Though the better mid-level flow will be displaced to the north, steep low to mid-level lapse rates remaining across this region will support potential for damaging wind and large hail given moderate instability ahead of the front. ..Thornton.. 05/17/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the portions of the Midwest and south to the Southern Plains. Storms will pose a risk for primarily damaging wind and hail. ...Synopsis... A cold front will extend from the Great Lakes region to the Midwest and south into the Southern Plains D3/Tuesday. The upper-level trough will continue lifting north and east into the Great Lakes through the period. ...Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes... Some remnant elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing toward the start of the period D3/Tuesday across the upper Midwest. This may pose some potential for a few instances of severe hail. Redevelopment of thunderstorms is likely along the front by the afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and moderate instability ahead of the front may support supercells initially capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado. Linear forcing with the cold front will likely lead to upscale growth and potential for damaging wind downstream into the Ohio Valley through time. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Trends continue for more progressive movement of the cold front through Oklahoma/north Texas Tuesday morning. As a result, probabilities were shifted eastward again with this update. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Though the better mid-level flow will be displaced to the north, steep low to mid-level lapse rates remaining across this region will support potential for damaging wind and large hail given moderate instability ahead of the front. ..Thornton.. 05/17/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the portions of the Midwest and south to the Southern Plains. Storms will pose a risk for primarily damaging wind and hail. ...Synopsis... A cold front will extend from the Great Lakes region to the Midwest and south into the Southern Plains D3/Tuesday. The upper-level trough will continue lifting north and east into the Great Lakes through the period. ...Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes... Some remnant elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing toward the start of the period D3/Tuesday across the upper Midwest. This may pose some potential for a few instances of severe hail. Redevelopment of thunderstorms is likely along the front by the afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and moderate instability ahead of the front may support supercells initially capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado. Linear forcing with the cold front will likely lead to upscale growth and potential for damaging wind downstream into the Ohio Valley through time. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Trends continue for more progressive movement of the cold front through Oklahoma/north Texas Tuesday morning. As a result, probabilities were shifted eastward again with this update. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Though the better mid-level flow will be displaced to the north, steep low to mid-level lapse rates remaining across this region will support potential for damaging wind and large hail given moderate instability ahead of the front. ..Thornton.. 05/17/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the portions of the Midwest and south to the Southern Plains. Storms will pose a risk for primarily damaging wind and hail. ...Synopsis... A cold front will extend from the Great Lakes region to the Midwest and south into the Southern Plains D3/Tuesday. The upper-level trough will continue lifting north and east into the Great Lakes through the period. ...Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes... Some remnant elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing toward the start of the period D3/Tuesday across the upper Midwest. This may pose some potential for a few instances of severe hail. Redevelopment of thunderstorms is likely along the front by the afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and moderate instability ahead of the front may support supercells initially capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado. Linear forcing with the cold front will likely lead to upscale growth and potential for damaging wind downstream into the Ohio Valley through time. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Trends continue for more progressive movement of the cold front through Oklahoma/north Texas Tuesday morning. As a result, probabilities were shifted eastward again with this update. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Though the better mid-level flow will be displaced to the north, steep low to mid-level lapse rates remaining across this region will support potential for damaging wind and large hail given moderate instability ahead of the front. ..Thornton.. 05/17/2026 Read more

WW 0212 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 212 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W FLV TO 15 N STJ TO 35 SE SDA TO 25 ESE SDA. ..MARSH..05/17/26 ATTN...WFO...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC003-021-025-049-061-063-075-079-081-115-117-129-147-171-211- 227-170840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON LINN LIVINGSTON MERCER NODAWAY PUTNAM SULLIVAN WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 212 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 170355Z - 171100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 212 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northeast Kansas Northwest into Northern Missouri * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1055 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts will be possible into the early overnight across northern Missouri. A band of severe thunderstorms is forecast to move east into the Watch from the west and pose a risk for scattered severe gusts during the overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Saint Joseph MO to 40 miles east northeast of Chillicothe MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 210...WW 211... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected for parts of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday)*** A pronounced mid-level trough will advance to the central CONUS, encouraging the deepening of a surface low along the Kansas and Oklahoma borders, resulting in another day of volatile fire weather conditions behind a dryline and ahead of a surface cold front over the southern High Plains. The combination of downslope and gradient flow in the post-dryline environment will support widespread 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH, necessitating Critical highlights from New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas areas. Extremely Critical highlights have also been added across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into far southwestern Kansas. Here guidance consensus is strongest in sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 30 mph amid single-digit RH. Given loaded fuels with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile, any new or rejuvenated fire ignitions may spread at a life threateningly rapid pace. By evening, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern High Plains, approaching from the north. As such, west-southwesterly surface winds will quickly shift to northerly around 6-9 PM local time, which may result in a rapid, dangerous change in direction of forward movement to any ongoing wildfire fronts. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected for parts of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday)*** A pronounced mid-level trough will advance to the central CONUS, encouraging the deepening of a surface low along the Kansas and Oklahoma borders, resulting in another day of volatile fire weather conditions behind a dryline and ahead of a surface cold front over the southern High Plains. The combination of downslope and gradient flow in the post-dryline environment will support widespread 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH, necessitating Critical highlights from New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas areas. Extremely Critical highlights have also been added across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into far southwestern Kansas. Here guidance consensus is strongest in sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 30 mph amid single-digit RH. Given loaded fuels with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile, any new or rejuvenated fire ignitions may spread at a life threateningly rapid pace. By evening, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern High Plains, approaching from the north. As such, west-southwesterly surface winds will quickly shift to northerly around 6-9 PM local time, which may result in a rapid, dangerous change in direction of forward movement to any ongoing wildfire fronts. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected for parts of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday)*** A pronounced mid-level trough will advance to the central CONUS, encouraging the deepening of a surface low along the Kansas and Oklahoma borders, resulting in another day of volatile fire weather conditions behind a dryline and ahead of a surface cold front over the southern High Plains. The combination of downslope and gradient flow in the post-dryline environment will support widespread 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH, necessitating Critical highlights from New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas areas. Extremely Critical highlights have also been added across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into far southwestern Kansas. Here guidance consensus is strongest in sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 30 mph amid single-digit RH. Given loaded fuels with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile, any new or rejuvenated fire ignitions may spread at a life threateningly rapid pace. By evening, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern High Plains, approaching from the north. As such, west-southwesterly surface winds will quickly shift to northerly around 6-9 PM local time, which may result in a rapid, dangerous change in direction of forward movement to any ongoing wildfire fronts. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected for parts of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday)*** A pronounced mid-level trough will advance to the central CONUS, encouraging the deepening of a surface low along the Kansas and Oklahoma borders, resulting in another day of volatile fire weather conditions behind a dryline and ahead of a surface cold front over the southern High Plains. The combination of downslope and gradient flow in the post-dryline environment will support widespread 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH, necessitating Critical highlights from New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas areas. Extremely Critical highlights have also been added across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into far southwestern Kansas. Here guidance consensus is strongest in sustained southwesterly surface winds exceeding 30 mph amid single-digit RH. Given loaded fuels with ERCs exceeding the 95th percentile, any new or rejuvenated fire ignitions may spread at a life threateningly rapid pace. By evening, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern High Plains, approaching from the north. As such, west-southwesterly surface winds will quickly shift to northerly around 6-9 PM local time, which may result in a rapid, dangerous change in direction of forward movement to any ongoing wildfire fronts. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across the southern High Plains today*** A deepening mid-level trough across the Rockies will support appreciable surface low intensification across the central Plains today. The combination of strong downslope flow from the Rockies, in tandem with gradient westerly flow, will support very dry and windy conditions across portions of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. With above average fuel loading of very dry grasses and holdovers from previous fires already present across the southern High Plains, the very dry and windy conditions will promote a volatile setup for rapid, dangerous wildfire spread potential. ...Southern High Plains... A dryline will sharpen along the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma border during the afternoon, with a very dry boundary layer expected to mix up to at least 600 mb behind the dryline, from central New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and southwestern Kansas areas. While gradient westerly surface flow will increase through the day, downward mixing of stronger flow aloft in the post-dryline environment will support widespread 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-15 percent RH. These conditions are likely across much of New Mexico to the immediate dryline vicinity, where Critical highlights have been maintained. Extremely Critical highlights have been adjusted to where guidance consensus shows the longest term overlap of the aforementioned winds/RH with loaded fuels exceeding the 95th percentile. While the sustained surface winds may fall just shy of typical Extremely Critical criteria, the combination of fuel loading and potential pre-existing holdovers of earlier fire starts suggests that a volatile landscape will be in place to support dangerous wildfire-spread potential. ...California Central Valley Region... Deep-layer north-northwesterly flow will overspread the Central Valley region as a mid-level jet streak overspreads California on the backside of an upper trough. Downslope flow from the higher terrain will support surface winds exceeding 25 mph in spots as RH dips to the 15-20 percent range. Given dry fuels, Critical highlights have been introduced to the Sacramento Valley region. Broader Elevated highlights extend into the San Joaquin Valley, where 15+ mph sustained northerly winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across the southern High Plains today*** A deepening mid-level trough across the Rockies will support appreciable surface low intensification across the central Plains today. The combination of strong downslope flow from the Rockies, in tandem with gradient westerly flow, will support very dry and windy conditions across portions of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. With above average fuel loading of very dry grasses and holdovers from previous fires already present across the southern High Plains, the very dry and windy conditions will promote a volatile setup for rapid, dangerous wildfire spread potential. ...Southern High Plains... A dryline will sharpen along the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma border during the afternoon, with a very dry boundary layer expected to mix up to at least 600 mb behind the dryline, from central New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and southwestern Kansas areas. While gradient westerly surface flow will increase through the day, downward mixing of stronger flow aloft in the post-dryline environment will support widespread 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-15 percent RH. These conditions are likely across much of New Mexico to the immediate dryline vicinity, where Critical highlights have been maintained. Extremely Critical highlights have been adjusted to where guidance consensus shows the longest term overlap of the aforementioned winds/RH with loaded fuels exceeding the 95th percentile. While the sustained surface winds may fall just shy of typical Extremely Critical criteria, the combination of fuel loading and potential pre-existing holdovers of earlier fire starts suggests that a volatile landscape will be in place to support dangerous wildfire-spread potential. ...California Central Valley Region... Deep-layer north-northwesterly flow will overspread the Central Valley region as a mid-level jet streak overspreads California on the backside of an upper trough. Downslope flow from the higher terrain will support surface winds exceeding 25 mph in spots as RH dips to the 15-20 percent range. Given dry fuels, Critical highlights have been introduced to the Sacramento Valley region. Broader Elevated highlights extend into the San Joaquin Valley, where 15+ mph sustained northerly winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across the southern High Plains today*** A deepening mid-level trough across the Rockies will support appreciable surface low intensification across the central Plains today. The combination of strong downslope flow from the Rockies, in tandem with gradient westerly flow, will support very dry and windy conditions across portions of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. With above average fuel loading of very dry grasses and holdovers from previous fires already present across the southern High Plains, the very dry and windy conditions will promote a volatile setup for rapid, dangerous wildfire spread potential. ...Southern High Plains... A dryline will sharpen along the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma border during the afternoon, with a very dry boundary layer expected to mix up to at least 600 mb behind the dryline, from central New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and southwestern Kansas areas. While gradient westerly surface flow will increase through the day, downward mixing of stronger flow aloft in the post-dryline environment will support widespread 25-30 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-15 percent RH. These conditions are likely across much of New Mexico to the immediate dryline vicinity, where Critical highlights have been maintained. Extremely Critical highlights have been adjusted to where guidance consensus shows the longest term overlap of the aforementioned winds/RH with loaded fuels exceeding the 95th percentile. While the sustained surface winds may fall just shy of typical Extremely Critical criteria, the combination of fuel loading and potential pre-existing holdovers of earlier fire starts suggests that a volatile landscape will be in place to support dangerous wildfire-spread potential. ...California Central Valley Region... Deep-layer north-northwesterly flow will overspread the Central Valley region as a mid-level jet streak overspreads California on the backside of an upper trough. Downslope flow from the higher terrain will support surface winds exceeding 25 mph in spots as RH dips to the 15-20 percent range. Given dry fuels, Critical highlights have been introduced to the Sacramento Valley region. Broader Elevated highlights extend into the San Joaquin Valley, where 15+ mph sustained northerly winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards (including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will likely occur across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level trough will deepen and lift out of the Four Corners into the central Plains as a belt of enhanced westerly flow moves within the mean flow. As this westerly flow overspreads the Rockies, deepening of a surface cyclone across eastern Colorado is expected, with strengthening of southerly surface flow across the southern/central Plains. Convection is likely to be ongoing in the vicinity of a lead shortwave across portions of Iowa into Wisconsin at the start of the D2/Monday period. A front will extend from the surface low in eastern Colorado northward across southeast NE/IA/WI. A surface dryline will be located across central Kansas extending southward into western Oklahoma and southwestern Texas. Mid 60s to 70s dew points will be common east of the dryline and northward ahead of the cold front into the Great Lakes. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front southward to the dryline by the afternoon. A corridor of enhanced severe potential will exist across central KS/southeastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO. ...Central KS into southeast NE/southwest IA/northwest MO... Near the triple point of the surface low/dryline/cold front across central Kansas, a more favorable corridor of severe potential will exist Monday afternoon. Morning cloud cover should erode across central Kansas by the afternoon allowing for strong daytime heating and warming. Temperatures ahead of the dryline will approach the mid to upper 80s, with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. This will yield and axis of moderate to strong MLCAPE around 3500-4500 J/kg extending from central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. MLCIN will erode through the afternoon by around 18-20z with initiation expected along the dryline and cold front to the north by around 20-21z. Forecast soundings indicate favorable kinematics to support organized supercells, given deep layer shear around 40-50 kts. Initial supercells will be capable of large to giant hail (2-4+ inch) given steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. Hail probabilities were increased with this outlook to support this potential. The southerly low-level jet is progged to increase as large scale ascent spreads eastward through the afternoon, peaking around 40-50 kts by the 00-03z across northern OK into central KS. Strengthening flow in the 850-700 mb layer will elongate low-level hodographs with broad clockwise curvature in the 0-2 km layer and rapidly increasing low-level SRH. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH will approach 250-300 m2/s2 across portions of central/eastern KS. This in combination with the volatile thermodynamic environment will support an increase in tornado potential through the evening. Should discrete supercells be maintained, strong to intense tornadoes will be possible primarily from central to northeastern KS into southeastern NE. Given southwesterly deep layer shear is oriented somewhat parallel to the southwest to northeast cold front, storms near the front may cluster and grow upscale. Better potential exists for a more semi-discrete supercell across central Kansas ahead of the dryline. A few HREF members do support potential for this scenario, with long UH tracks across KS into southern Nebraska. Tornado probabilities were increased from east-central KS into southeastern NE/southern IA/northwestern MS. ...Central IA into portions of IL/KY/WI/IN/Lower MI... Elevated thunderstorm activity will be likely at the beginning of the period across portions of Iowa/Wisconsin. This will pose some risk for a few instances of severe hail. Guidance suggests that recovery will occur by the afternoon across this region with thunderstorms redeveloping along the cold front and re-intensifying of downstream convection the into the afternoon. Initial morning convection may pose some wind/hail risk into IL/IN/western KY. Additional development by the evening along the cold front to the north will pose some wind/hail risk across portions of the upper Midwest. ...OK/TX... A more conditional severe risk exists further south across OK/TX. Large-scale ascent will remain weaker further south. However, strong instability within the very moist warm sector will exist. Deep layer flow will be somewhat less compared to further north, but still sufficient for supercells. If storms can develop, a risk for large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado will exist. ..Thornton.. 05/17/2026 Read more