Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains. ...Synopsis... Height rises will continue across the western US, with more zonal flow across the central US and upper-level troughing across the Northeast and Quebec/Ontario. A modest belt of westerly flow around 30-40 kts will move through the trough in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A compact shortwave trough with enhanced westerly flow will move through the flow across the Central Plains. ...Eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Activity will likely be ongoing across some portion of northern PA into northern NJ this morning. This will likely contribute to lingering cloud cover and more muted daytime heating/recovery with northern extent. South of the morning precipitation, strong daytime heating and warming is expected, with temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100s F. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is already in place across the region from WV into VA/MD/NJ. With daytime heating, low-level lapse rates are expected to increase with moderate to strong instability by the afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles will be generally weak, with better shear to the north. Nonetheless, several thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop across the Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley moving north and eastward though the afternoon. These will have the potential to produce widespread damaging wind, especially if clusters can grow upscale and develop strong cold pools. Additional clusters are likely in the wake of morning convection further north. Instability will be less, but sufficient deep layer shear may support one or more clusters capable of damaging wind. ...Central/Southern Plains... Evolution of thunderstorms across the central/southern Plains will be dependent on evolution of morning convection across northern Kansas. One or more MCVs may develop and drift south and eastward, which will have impacts on the exact region that thunderstorms redevelop by the afternoon. Guidance suggests that the corridor of highest probability of development will be across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Within this region, widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon, with initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado. These will eventually cluster and grow upscale, with a likely MCS moving south into Oklahoma by the evening and an increase in damaging wind potential. More isolated supercell development is expected from the OK/TX Panhandles northward into eastern CO/western KS/western NE. Deeply mixed profiles and sufficient deep layer shear should support potential for both large hail and damaging wind. ...Midwest into the lower Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley... There is less confidence in evolution of afternoon thunderstorms into the Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability will be in place with generally weak flow/deep layer shear. Guidance suggests that several clusters of thunderstorms may develop and spread eastward with damaging wind/downburst potential. This will likely be focused in more mesoscale corridors where residual outflow resides. ..Thornton/Moore.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains. ...Synopsis... Height rises will continue across the western US, with more zonal flow across the central US and upper-level troughing across the Northeast and Quebec/Ontario. A modest belt of westerly flow around 30-40 kts will move through the trough in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A compact shortwave trough with enhanced westerly flow will move through the flow across the Central Plains. ...Eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Activity will likely be ongoing across some portion of northern PA into northern NJ this morning. This will likely contribute to lingering cloud cover and more muted daytime heating/recovery with northern extent. South of the morning precipitation, strong daytime heating and warming is expected, with temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100s F. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is already in place across the region from WV into VA/MD/NJ. With daytime heating, low-level lapse rates are expected to increase with moderate to strong instability by the afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles will be generally weak, with better shear to the north. Nonetheless, several thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop across the Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley moving north and eastward though the afternoon. These will have the potential to produce widespread damaging wind, especially if clusters can grow upscale and develop strong cold pools. Additional clusters are likely in the wake of morning convection further north. Instability will be less, but sufficient deep layer shear may support one or more clusters capable of damaging wind. ...Central/Southern Plains... Evolution of thunderstorms across the central/southern Plains will be dependent on evolution of morning convection across northern Kansas. One or more MCVs may develop and drift south and eastward, which will have impacts on the exact region that thunderstorms redevelop by the afternoon. Guidance suggests that the corridor of highest probability of development will be across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Within this region, widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon, with initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado. These will eventually cluster and grow upscale, with a likely MCS moving south into Oklahoma by the evening and an increase in damaging wind potential. More isolated supercell development is expected from the OK/TX Panhandles northward into eastern CO/western KS/western NE. Deeply mixed profiles and sufficient deep layer shear should support potential for both large hail and damaging wind. ...Midwest into the lower Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley... There is less confidence in evolution of afternoon thunderstorms into the Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability will be in place with generally weak flow/deep layer shear. Guidance suggests that several clusters of thunderstorms may develop and spread eastward with damaging wind/downburst potential. This will likely be focused in more mesoscale corridors where residual outflow resides. ..Thornton/Moore.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains. ...Synopsis... Height rises will continue across the western US, with more zonal flow across the central US and upper-level troughing across the Northeast and Quebec/Ontario. A modest belt of westerly flow around 30-40 kts will move through the trough in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A compact shortwave trough with enhanced westerly flow will move through the flow across the Central Plains. ...Eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Activity will likely be ongoing across some portion of northern PA into northern NJ this morning. This will likely contribute to lingering cloud cover and more muted daytime heating/recovery with northern extent. South of the morning precipitation, strong daytime heating and warming is expected, with temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100s F. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is already in place across the region from WV into VA/MD/NJ. With daytime heating, low-level lapse rates are expected to increase with moderate to strong instability by the afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles will be generally weak, with better shear to the north. Nonetheless, several thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop across the Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley moving north and eastward though the afternoon. These will have the potential to produce widespread damaging wind, especially if clusters can grow upscale and develop strong cold pools. Additional clusters are likely in the wake of morning convection further north. Instability will be less, but sufficient deep layer shear may support one or more clusters capable of damaging wind. ...Central/Southern Plains... Evolution of thunderstorms across the central/southern Plains will be dependent on evolution of morning convection across northern Kansas. One or more MCVs may develop and drift south and eastward, which will have impacts on the exact region that thunderstorms redevelop by the afternoon. Guidance suggests that the corridor of highest probability of development will be across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Within this region, widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon, with initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado. These will eventually cluster and grow upscale, with a likely MCS moving south into Oklahoma by the evening and an increase in damaging wind potential. More isolated supercell development is expected from the OK/TX Panhandles northward into eastern CO/western KS/western NE. Deeply mixed profiles and sufficient deep layer shear should support potential for both large hail and damaging wind. ...Midwest into the lower Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley... There is less confidence in evolution of afternoon thunderstorms into the Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability will be in place with generally weak flow/deep layer shear. Guidance suggests that several clusters of thunderstorms may develop and spread eastward with damaging wind/downburst potential. This will likely be focused in more mesoscale corridors where residual outflow resides. ..Thornton/Moore.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains. ...Synopsis... Height rises will continue across the western US, with more zonal flow across the central US and upper-level troughing across the Northeast and Quebec/Ontario. A modest belt of westerly flow around 30-40 kts will move through the trough in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A compact shortwave trough with enhanced westerly flow will move through the flow across the Central Plains. ...Eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Activity will likely be ongoing across some portion of northern PA into northern NJ this morning. This will likely contribute to lingering cloud cover and more muted daytime heating/recovery with northern extent. South of the morning precipitation, strong daytime heating and warming is expected, with temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100s F. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is already in place across the region from WV into VA/MD/NJ. With daytime heating, low-level lapse rates are expected to increase with moderate to strong instability by the afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles will be generally weak, with better shear to the north. Nonetheless, several thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop across the Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley moving north and eastward though the afternoon. These will have the potential to produce widespread damaging wind, especially if clusters can grow upscale and develop strong cold pools. Additional clusters are likely in the wake of morning convection further north. Instability will be less, but sufficient deep layer shear may support one or more clusters capable of damaging wind. ...Central/Southern Plains... Evolution of thunderstorms across the central/southern Plains will be dependent on evolution of morning convection across northern Kansas. One or more MCVs may develop and drift south and eastward, which will have impacts on the exact region that thunderstorms redevelop by the afternoon. Guidance suggests that the corridor of highest probability of development will be across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Within this region, widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon, with initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado. These will eventually cluster and grow upscale, with a likely MCS moving south into Oklahoma by the evening and an increase in damaging wind potential. More isolated supercell development is expected from the OK/TX Panhandles northward into eastern CO/western KS/western NE. Deeply mixed profiles and sufficient deep layer shear should support potential for both large hail and damaging wind. ...Midwest into the lower Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley... There is less confidence in evolution of afternoon thunderstorms into the Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability will be in place with generally weak flow/deep layer shear. Guidance suggests that several clusters of thunderstorms may develop and spread eastward with damaging wind/downburst potential. This will likely be focused in more mesoscale corridors where residual outflow resides. ..Thornton/Moore.. 07/04/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains. ...Synopsis... Height rises will continue across the western US, with more zonal flow across the central US and upper-level troughing across the Northeast and Quebec/Ontario. A modest belt of westerly flow around 30-40 kts will move through the trough in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A compact shortwave trough with enhanced westerly flow will move through the flow across the Central Plains. ...Eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Activity will likely be ongoing across some portion of northern PA into northern NJ this morning. This will likely contribute to lingering cloud cover and more muted daytime heating/recovery with northern extent. South of the morning precipitation, strong daytime heating and warming is expected, with temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100s F. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is already in place across the region from WV into VA/MD/NJ. With daytime heating, low-level lapse rates are expected to increase with moderate to strong instability by the afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles will be generally weak, with better shear to the north. Nonetheless, several thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop across the Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley moving north and eastward though the afternoon. These will have the potential to produce widespread damaging wind, especially if clusters can grow upscale and develop strong cold pools. Additional clusters are likely in the wake of morning convection further north. Instability will be less, but sufficient deep layer shear may support one or more clusters capable of damaging wind. ...Central/Southern Plains... Evolution of thunderstorms across the central/southern Plains will be dependent on evolution of morning convection across northern Kansas. One or more MCVs may develop and drift south and eastward, which will have impacts on the exact region that thunderstorms redevelop by the afternoon. Guidance suggests that the corridor of highest probability of development will be across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Within this region, widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon, with initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado. These will eventually cluster and grow upscale, with a likely MCS moving south into Oklahoma by the evening and an increase in damaging wind potential. More isolated supercell development is expected from the OK/TX Panhandles northward into eastern CO/western KS/western NE. Deeply mixed profiles and sufficient deep layer shear should support potential for both large hail and damaging wind. ...Midwest into the lower Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley... There is less confidence in evolution of afternoon thunderstorms into the Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability will be in place with generally weak flow/deep layer shear. Guidance suggests that several clusters of thunderstorms may develop and spread eastward with damaging wind/downburst potential. This will likely be focused in more mesoscale corridors where residual outflow resides. ..Thornton/Moore.. 07/04/2026 Read more

MD 1483 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449...452... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1483 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0916 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026 Areas affected...North-central and Northeast Kansas...Far Southeast Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Far Northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...452... Valid 040216Z - 040415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449, 452 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will continue to be possible over the next few hours from parts of north-central Kansas northeastward into southwest Iowa. A watch extension in area may be needed to the south and east of the current watches. DISCUSSION...A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing near an axis of strong instability, where surface dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. Across this moist airmass, the RAP shows an axis of instability with MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4500 J/kg range. The instability along with large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough is helping to maintain storm intensity within the line. The line will move slowly southeastward into northeast Kansas, far northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa over the next few hours. Although a severe threat is expected to continue through late this evening, the threat could become a bit more isolated as inhibition gradually increases. ..Broyles.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 41689486 41709538 41519589 41059625 40189689 39589786 39279875 39139980 38869998 38549984 38309911 38419739 38949587 39469508 40339441 41059420 41509445 41689486 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1484 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1484 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0929 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026 Areas affected...Northern Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 040229Z - 040430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms developing across northern Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan may pose an isolated hail and severe wind threat through late evening. Storm organization/longevity is expected to remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development have been monitored across northern IN over the past 30-60 minutes as a modest increase in the low-level jet augments isentropic ascent over a residual outflow boundary draped across the region. Much of this convection is likely elevated in nature, but latest RAP/HRRR forecast soundings depict nearly uninhibited most-unstable parcels between 925-850 mb where ascent is likely being maximized. As such, further thunderstorm development appears likely in the coming hours. Storm motions generally to the cool side of the boundary, coupled with a high probability for destructive storm interactions, suggest that the potential for long-lived and/or well-organized convection is low. However, effective bulk shear values are estimated to be around 25-30 knots within the zone of ascent, and MUCAPE values remain near 2000 J/kg. This parameter space could support at least transient organized convection capable of posing a risk of large hail and perhaps damaging winds in proximity to the surface boundary for the next few hours. In general, increasingly clustered storm modes should modulate the overall severe threat and negate the need for watch issuance. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 41068469 41018504 40998658 41038676 41218693 41428699 41658695 41798682 41948664 42138646 42138517 42048486 41798462 41388457 41068469 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1485 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1485 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0937 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026 Areas affected...Central and Southwest Nebraska...Far Northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450... Valid 040237Z - 040430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will likely continue over the next few hours. As storms move eastward into southwest Nebraska, a watch extension in area may be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a couple of intense storms over the central High Plains. The first storm is in west-central Nebraska with the second in far northeast Colorado. These storms are located near a shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery, which is providing large-scale ascent helping to sustain the storms. Ahead of the storms, a moderately unstable airmass is located across much of southern and central Nebraska, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. In addition, the North Platte WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This will support supercell maintenance late this evening. Supercells should be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. As the storms in far northeast Colorado move eastward into southwest Nebraska later this evening, a watch extension in area may need to be considered. ..Broyles.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 41939990 42170055 42240119 42110170 41550200 41050240 40760285 40620311 40180322 40030297 39960257 39960198 40120098 40460007 40859965 41169949 41589956 41939990 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BRL TO 35 W MMO TO 50 NE MMO TO 35 NW BEH. ..MOORE..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-053-063-075-091-093-099-105-123-155-175-197-040440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANKAKEE KENDALL LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MARSHALL PUTNAM STARK WILL INC007-073-089-111-127-040440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER LMZ741-742-743-744-745-779-040440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BRL TO 35 W MMO TO 50 NE MMO TO 35 NW BEH. ..MOORE..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-053-063-075-091-093-099-105-123-155-175-197-040440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANKAKEE KENDALL LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MARSHALL PUTNAM STARK WILL INC007-073-089-111-127-040440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER LMZ741-742-743-744-745-779-040440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW BRL TO 35 W MMO TO 50 NE MMO TO 35 NW BEH. ..MOORE..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-053-063-075-091-093-099-105-123-155-175-197-040440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANKAKEE KENDALL LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MARSHALL PUTNAM STARK WILL INC007-073-089-111-127-040440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER LMZ741-742-743-744-745-779-040440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 451 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN LM 032340Z - 040700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 451 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Northern Illinois Northwest Indiana Lake Michigan * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 640 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms should pose a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds as it tracks east-southeastward this evening into early Saturday morning. Peak gusts may reach up to 60-70 mph. Isolated hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two may also occur with any cells that can move along/near a boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Moline IL to Valparaiso IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 446...WW 447...WW 448...WW 449...WW 450... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1482 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451... FOR FAR EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0833 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026 Areas affected...Far eastern Iowa into northern Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451... Valid 040133Z - 040330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451 continues. SUMMARY...Although MCS intensity has been lackluster thus far, sporadic severe winds remain possible across far eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a loosely organized MCS has emerged across far eastern IA into northwest IL. However, a prominent outflow boundary is evident from KDVN surging ahead of the primary convective cores. Despite favorable buoyancy downstream and only gradually increasing MLCIN with the onset of nocturnal cooling, regional 00 UTC RAOBs and recent VWP observations show 20 knot southwesterly deep-layer wind shear vectors, oriented mainly parallel to the axis of convection. Additionally, very weak low-level winds are noted, which is also promoting outflow-dominant storms. Despite these trends, occasional bursts of strong/severe winds have been evident in velocity data, primarily as new updrafts develop and collapse within and ahead of the line. This trend should continue through the next few hours as the band gradually shifts east/southeast. In the short-term (next 1-2 hours), somewhat higher confidence in severe winds will be focused on the northern fringe of the line where better orientation to the deep-layer shear vector has allowed for a more balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zone. This section of the line will likely continue to propagate east/northeast into northeast IL where temperatures have recovered into the low 80s ahead of the band. ..Moore.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 41329178 42058971 42368878 42378820 42298778 41958753 41688748 41378751 41158762 40988806 40888849 40899144 40929165 41009182 41159192 41329178 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW BIE TO 20 SSW LNK TO 25 NNE LNK TO 15 WNW OMA TO 40 SE DNS. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-040440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE NEC025-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-153-040440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS DOUGLAS GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON SARPY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW BIE TO 20 SSW LNK TO 25 NNE LNK TO 15 WNW OMA TO 40 SE DNS. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-040440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE NEC025-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-153-040440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS DOUGLAS GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON SARPY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW BIE TO 20 SSW LNK TO 25 NNE LNK TO 15 WNW OMA TO 40 SE DNS. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-040440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE NEC025-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-153-040440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS DOUGLAS GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON SARPY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW BIE TO 20 SSW LNK TO 25 NNE LNK TO 15 WNW OMA TO 40 SE DNS. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC071-129-137-145-155-040440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE NEC025-055-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-153-040440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS DOUGLAS GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON SARPY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 449 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 032035Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 449 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Iowa Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across southeast Nebraska in a moist and unstable air mass. The strongest cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Lincoln NE to 25 miles northeast of Shenandoah IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...WW 446...WW 447...WW 448... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0450 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 450 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SNY TO 30 SSW MHN TO 30 ENE CDR. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-017-031-041-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-040340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0450 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 450 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SNY TO 30 SSW MHN TO 30 ENE CDR. ..BROYLES..07/04/26 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-017-031-041-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-149-171-040340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more