Storm Prediction Center

WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0395 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 395 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 252245Z - 260500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central Arkansas Far East-Central Oklahoma * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 545 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm cluster currently moving through east-central Oklahoma is expected to continue southeastward into west-central Arkansas this evening. Environmental conditions support the potential for continued strong to severe wind gusts and isolated large hail across the region this evening/tonight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles northwest of Fort Smith AR to 20 miles south southeast of Russellville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 391...WW 392...WW 393...WW 394... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Mosier Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A robust fire weather pattern is expected to persist across an expansive portion of the Intermountain West through the middle of next week. Dry thunderstorms early in the forecast period followed by consecutive days of exceptionally dry and breezy conditions will promote significant fire weather concerns for any new ignitions, lightning holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the western CONUS. Forecast guidance continues to show a major, seasonally abnormal trough traversing the western CONUS through Day 4/Sunday, posing considerable fire weather concerns for the Great Basin and much of the Southwest. A strong cold front and accompanying wind shift (from broadly southwesterly to northerly) will push through the region sometime on Sunday. This wind shift and associated wind gusts may further exacerbate ongoing wildfires and impact control efforts. ...Days 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... A strong mid-level jet overspreads much of the Interior West as an upper trough amplifies across the Northwestern U.S., scouring out remaining meaningful atmospheric moisture in the Great Basin and Southwest. Forecast guidance suggests a corridor of stronger southwesterly winds of 25-35 mph developing under the stronger jet, expanding from southeastern NV into the CO Plateau on Day 3/Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions will continue on Day 4/Sunday as the mid-level jet translates slightly eastward, expanding from the Four Corners into the northern Plains. Of note, Day 4/Sunday may be a third consecutive day of amplified sustained winds of 25-35 mph across portions of the Great Basin. An extended burning period is expected, with consecutive days of poor overnight humidity recoveries and residual gusty winds further exacerbating the fire environment. The potential for localized extremely critical fire weather conditions may exist where single-digit RH and very strong sustained winds overlap receptive fuels. ...Days 5-6/Monday-Tuesday... Elevated southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level troughing across the West should support a prolonged fire weather threat across the central Rockies, Great Basin and parts of the Southwest. As such, 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained. Fuels are expected to remain quite receptive through the extended forecast period with minimal-to-no chances of precipitation this weekend into early next week. A strong upper ridge is forecast to build over the central and eastern CONUS next week, maintaining a troughing pattern across the West. Above normal temperatures and overall drier conditions may encourage fire weather concerns to emerge in the Southeast. As dry southwesterly flow persists across the Southwest and Great Basin through the forecast period, Critical fire weather probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as guidance becomes better resolved. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0394 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 394 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 252155Z - 260500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Eastern Ohio Western and Central Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and Friday morning from 555 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to persist for at least the next several hours across the region in an environment that supports storm organization. Primary severe threat is large hail, although some isolated damaging gusts are possible as well. A low-probability tornado risk also exists, especially with any storms that interact with any residual surface boundaries. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast of Franklin PA to 45 miles southeast of Wheeling WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 391...WW 392...WW 393... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0392 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 392 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MEAD..06/25/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TSA...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 392 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-055-057-067-069-077-081-083-093-095-097-119- 129-151-175-187-189-191-252140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HARPER HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KINGMAN KIOWA MEADE MORTON PRATT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS SUMNER OKC001-003-007-011-021-035-037-041-043-045-047-053-059-071-073- 083-093-097-103-105-113-115-117-119-129-131-143-145-147-151-153- 252140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALFALFA BEAVER BLAINE CHEROKEE CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT Read more

WW 392 TORNADO KS OK TX 252000Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 392 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Kansas Northern Oklahoma Northeast Texas Panhandle * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Initially, a cluster of storms will pose a severe threat through mid/late afternoon across northeast Oklahoma, with additional peripheral storm development possible. Meanwhile, an outflow boundary will continue to stall and modify, with potential severe-storm/supercell development across southwest Kansas and the eastern Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into northwest Oklahoma through this evening, where all severe hazards are possible including tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Liberal KS to 10 miles south southeast of Grove OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 391... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0391 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 391 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MEAD..06/25/26 ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 391 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WYC001-007-009-015-019-021-025-027-031-252140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY CARBON CONVERSE GOSHEN JOHNSON LARAMIE NATRONA NIOBRARA PLATTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 391 SEVERE TSTM WY 251940Z - 260200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 391 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to further develop and pose a severe-wind gust threat toward eastern Wyoming. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Rawlins WY to 25 miles north of Torrington WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0393 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0393 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 393 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 252035Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 393 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma Texas Panhandle and South Plains * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Higher-based storms including a few supercells are expected to develop regionally through late afternoon and early evening, with the potential evolution of one or more semi-organized linear clusters this evening into western Oklahoma. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Borger TX to 50 miles south southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 391...WW 392... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...WYOMING...AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains, with large hail and severe winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential may exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced risk (driven by CIG1 wind) across parts of western OK, the eastern TX Panhandle, and far south-central KS. Thunderstorms are evolving across the OK Panhandle and vicinity, ahead of a surface low/triple point. Current expectation is for this activity and additional storms to track east-southeastward through a hot/well-mixed air mass -- favorable for strengthening/expanding cold pools with time. Around 40 kt of effective shear should promote a mix of organized clusters and supercells tracking east-southeastward into increasingly rich boundary-layer moisture and a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. This evolution should favor a swath of severe/damaging wind gusts (some upwards of 75 mph or greater). A focused corridor of relatively greater tornado potential is possible across parts of southwest KS into northwest OK -- along a recovering outflow boundary. There was some consideration for higher tornado probabilities here, though confidence in the exact corridor was too low for the upgrade at this time. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were made to the severe probabilities based on the latest convective and environmental trends. ..Weinman.. 06/25/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026/ ...Southern/Central Plains and Ozarks... Strong convection continues at midday across south-central Kansas into northern Oklahoma, augmenting a front that will continue to settle south-southeastward toward the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma by this evening. Some of this convection has been organized/bowing on a small scale this morning and some diurnal intensification could occur through peak heating as it progresses southeastward, but the continued influence of proximal rain-cooled air casts some uncertainty regarding intensity/peak risk timing. The most likely scenario will be for the possibility of deeper convective development later this afternoon on the west-southwest flank of these lingering early day storms, where outflow modifies/intercepts the surface front, and in north and east proximity to a Panhandles surface low. Additional post-frontal low-level upslope flow-related potentially severe storms are also expected across southeast Colorado near the Front Range southeastward into the Panhandle beginning mid/late afternoon. This anticipated development later today is expected to be focused in a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability from southeast Colorado east-southeastward into far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. With strong deep-layer shear expected, initial supercells should pose a threat for large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado risk. But, convective mode will probably tend to become mixed/messy quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge with each other. Low-level shear is forecast to markedly increase near the surface boundary later today as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Resultant elongated/curved hodographs support the potential for tornadoes, especially with any thunderstorms that can remain at least semi-discrete. And given the enhanced effective SRH near the boundary, a strong tornado appears possible if a supercell mode can be maintained. Higher-based convection will develop farther south into the southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This activity should tend to cluster and spread east-southeastward across northwest Texas, the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and eventually into western Oklahoma this evening, while continuing to pose mainly a severe wind threat before eventually weakening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York... 50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians through this evening as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great Lakes. A weak surface low should also develop eastward over the lower Great Lakes, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in the 50s to low 60s F ahead of the front. Coupled with poor mid lapse rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across parts of Ohio into western/central Pennsylvania and western New York where slightly stronger low-level flow and related shear should exist. A somewhat higher/more focused severe potential appears to exist across central/eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania from mid-afternoon through early evening. ...Utah/Wyoming/Montana and far eastern Idaho... Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from Utah into Wyoming this afternoon and evening. Have introduced a wind-related categorical Slight risk for the potential of semi-organized storms as a mid-level speed max interfaces with an unstable/well-mixed boundary layer across Wyoming. Otherwise, occasional hail may also exist farther north in southeast Idaho, Wyoming, and parts of Montana, where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level flow/deep-layer shear, and pockets of greater instability should support more robust convection. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z CORRECTED FOR TEXT ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL UTAH INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UTAH...EASTERN NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO... ***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest on Day 2/Friday*** ...Northwest Arizona and far eastern Nevada into central Utah ... A slight westward expansion was made to the Extremely Critical fire weather risk area as high resolution guidance depicts an extensive region of sustained southwest winds of 25-35 mph (gusts over 45 mph) amid 5-15% RH. 10+ hours of widespread critical conditions alongside poor overnight humidity recoveries and residual gusty winds will result in an extended burning period, further exacerbating the fire environment and impacting control efforts. ...Colorado Plateau... Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were introduced across the CO West Slope, northwestern NM, and extreme southeastern UT as strong mid-level flow and sufficient lift overspread the region. Despite preceding days of mixed wet/dry thunderstorms, pockets of fuels will remain receptive (80-90th percentile) to lightning ignitions. Concerns increase significantly as multiple days of critical fire weather conditions (above normal temperatures, strong winds and critically low RH) are expected this weekend, potentially impacting nascent wildfires born from thunderstorm activity mid-week. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Pacific Northwest on Day 2/Friday evening into the overnight hours. While fuels could initially be receptive to lightning ignitions, cooler temperatures, 0.5-1.0" of widespread rainfall, and increasing RH will encourage less favorable fuel conditions. Thus, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights have been withheld. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/25/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... A robust fire weather pattern is expected across an expansive portion of the Intermountain West starting on Day 2/Friday and continuing through the weekend. Preceding dry thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday will be followed by exceptionally dry and windy conditions to promote significant fire weather concerns for any new ignitions, lightning holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the western CONUS. A seasonally abnormal trough and associated mid-level jet will move over the Pacific Northwest on Day 2/Friday, causing significant fire weather concerns for the Great Basin and much of the Southwest. The latest forecast guidance suggests a corridor of strong southwest winds beginning Day 2/Friday afternoon across northern AZ through southwest WY. At the surface, southwest winds of 25-35 mph are likely to develop amid very dry RHs of 5-15% over the corridor of highest concern. Accordingly, an area of Extremely Critical fire weather risk was introduced over portions of central and southwest UT, northwest AZ, and far southeast Nevada. Over the surrounding areas of those states as well as far western CO, southwestern WY, far western NM, and southeast CA, where winds are slightly less intense, a Critical to Elevated wind/RH risk area will also exist. Several days of poor overnight humidity recoveries and residual gusty winds will further intensify the fire environment. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the western US will ejected across the northern Rockies, with strong mid-level flow overspreading the High Plains on D3/Saturday. In response, a surface low across eastern Montana will deepen with strengthening southerly flow into the High Plains. A secondary surface low will move eastward across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic through the period. ...Northern Plains... As southerly flow increases with the deepening surface cyclone across eastern Montana, mid 60s dew points will surge northward into portions of the northern High Plains. Guidance suggests that a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place ahead of the surface low across portions of eastern Montana into the western/central Dakotas. Additionally, a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will push northward through morning/afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is expected first across the high terrain in eastern Montana/northern Wyoming. It is likely that as this moves into the lower elevations, it will cluster and grow upscale into one or more clusters/MCS moving north and east into the Dakotas through the afternoon/evening. These may be further supported by the increasing low-level jet into the evening, with potential to produce damaging wind (perhaps some significant 70+ mph). Higher probabilities may be warranted with additional information/higher confidence in corridors of damaging wind potential. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop along a front extending from the Mid-Atlantic back into the southern Ohio Valley. Flow is expected to be generally weak with modest shear. Guidance suggests that moderate to strong buoyancy will develop across the region amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Despite weaker shear profiles, this may support a few organized clusters capable of damaging winds/wet downbursts. A more favorable corridor for wind will exist from North Carolina into Virginia. Here a shortwave trough will move eastward with a modest increase in mid-level flow and deep layer shear. This may support potential for a more organized line of thunderstorms to shift eastward to the coastline. Forecast soundings indicate steep low-level lapse rates will be in place across this region, further supporting potential for downward momentum transport. A Slight Risk was added across this area to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 06/25/2026 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 25 06:42:07 UTC 2026.

WW 0390 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 390 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE LIC TO 15 WNW ITR TO 25 NW GLD TO 45 SSW IML TO 40 S HSI. ..JEWELL..06/25/26 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 390 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-250740- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-141-147-153-163-179-181-183-193- 199-203-250740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON OSBORNE PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN SHERMAN SMITH THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 390 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 250005Z - 250700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 705 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and North-Central Kansas Southwest and South-Central Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 705 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this evening across southwest/south-central Nebraska and northwest/north-central Kansas. Strong buoyancy and vertical shear will support the potential for large to very large hail over the next few hours when a more cellular mode is favored. A low-probability tornado risk exists during this time period as well. Thereafter, a trend towards a more linear storm mode is possible, with the primary severe threat transitioning to strong gusts. Isolated gusts may approach 75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Imperial NE to 55 miles south southeast of Kearney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 387...WW 388...WW 389... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29020. ...Mosier Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL UTAH INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UTAH...EASTERN NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A robust fire weather pattern is expected across an expansive portion of the Intermountain West starting on Day 2/Friday and continuing through the weekend. Preceding dry thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday will be followed by exceptionally dry and windy conditions to promote significant fire weather concerns for any new ignitions, lightning holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the western CONUS. A seasonally abnormal trough and associated mid-level jet will move over the Pacific Northwest on Day 2/Friday, causing significant fire weather concerns for the Great Basin and much of the Southwest. The latest forecast guidance suggests a corridor of strong southwest winds beginning Day 2/Friday afternoon across northern AZ through southwest WY. At the surface, southwest winds of 25-35 mph are likely to develop amid very dry RHs of 5-15% over the corridor of highest concern. Accordingly, an area of Extremely Critical fire weather risk was introduced over portions of central and southwest UT, northwest AZ, and far southeast Nevada. Over the surrounding areas of those states as well as far western CO, southwestern WY, far western NM, and southeast CA, where winds are slightly less intense, a Critical to Elevated wind/RH risk area will also exist. Several days of poor overnight humidity recoveries and residual gusty winds will further intensify the fire environment. ..Stearns.. 06/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL UTAH INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF UTAH...EASTERN NEVADA...NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO... ...Synopsis... A robust fire weather pattern is expected across an expansive portion of the Intermountain West starting on Day 2/Friday and continuing through the weekend. Preceding dry thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday will be followed by exceptionally dry and windy conditions to promote significant fire weather concerns for any new ignitions, lightning holdovers, and ongoing large fires across the western CONUS. A seasonally abnormal trough and associated mid-level jet will move over the Pacific Northwest on Day 2/Friday, causing significant fire weather concerns for the Great Basin and much of the Southwest. The latest forecast guidance suggests a corridor of strong southwest winds beginning Day 2/Friday afternoon across northern AZ through southwest WY. At the surface, southwest winds of 25-35 mph are likely to develop amid very dry RHs of 5-15% over the corridor of highest concern. Accordingly, an area of Extremely Critical fire weather risk was introduced over portions of central and southwest UT, northwest AZ, and far southeast Nevada. Over the surrounding areas of those states as well as far western CO, southwestern WY, far western NM, and southeast CA, where winds are slightly less intense, a Critical to Elevated wind/RH risk area will also exist. Several days of poor overnight humidity recoveries and residual gusty winds will further intensify the fire environment. ..Stearns.. 06/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A sub-tropical moisture plume will continue to progress eastward across the Interior West today. This feature will provide a focus for both wet and dry thunderstorms from southeastern ID though the western half of CO and northwest NM into northeast AZ and the eastern 2/3 of UT. On the western fringe of this potential thunderstorm activity, mid-level west/southwest flow will combine with drier air, leading to a well-mixed boundary layer. Farther north, closer to the incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest, a cold front will tighten the surface pressure gradient leading to southwest flow over dry fuels there. ...Great Basin, Southwest, and central Rockies... Thunderstorm coverage, particularly over western CO, will likely be greater than what occurred on Wednesday with slightly less precipitable water available as moisture progresses farther inland. However, given overnight rainfall and fuels becoming slightly less dry, lightning ignition efficiency is likely to decrease going into today across many of the areas covered by the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk. Thus, the less favorable fuel conditions will balance the somewhat more favorable atmospheric environment and preclude any areas of potentially scattered dry thunderstorms. Given the slightly drier vertical profiles and remaining sub-cloud dry layer, any storms that do form will have potential for gusty outflow winds. (See the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for additional details.) Additionally, pyrocumulus development remains highly possible with pyrocumulonimbus not out of the question if fire activity can provide sufficient surface heating. Over much of eastern NV and portions of western UT, southwest flow aloft over hotter and drier surface conditions will lead to Elevated wind/RH conditions. In this region, expect winds to be southwest to westerly at 15-20 mph amid minimum RHs ranging from 10-20 percent. ...Pacific Northwest... Farther northwest over WA and portions of OR east of the Cascades, west to southwest flow will promote strong downslope winds and dry conditions. Southwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph will combine with 10-15% RH to support Elevated fire weather concerns there as well. A cold front will push through the Columbia Basin this evening into the overnight hours, bringing increased precipitation chances and cooler temperatures. ..Stearns.. 06/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more