Storm Prediction Center

MD 0686 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST/COASTAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0686 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeast/coastal Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091946Z - 092145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A conditional risk for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts exists across portions of southeast Texas this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar/satellite imagery depicts ongoing attempts at convective initiation along and south of a weak/remnant surface boundary across portions of southeast Texas, with an isolated thunderstorm noted near the Austin Metro. This activity is occurring immediately downstream of a mid-level shortwave trough, with cool temperatures aloft and a moist low-level air mass supporting moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE per latest mesoanalysis and regional ACARS soundings). Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this feature (as sampled by the POE/LCH VAD profiles) is contributing to 40-50+ kts of effective bulk shear, supportive of supercells; however, this greater shear is largely displaced towards the eastern portions of the discussion area (well ahead of the shortwave trough axis) with much weaker shear farther west. Should a thunderstorm develop/persist within the more favorable environment farther east, the resultant elongated hodographs coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support an attendant risk for large hail. Infiltrating dry mid-level air (evident on latest GOES water vapor imagery) will also support greater evaporative cooling potential with stronger downdrafts (DCAPE of 900-1100 J/kg per latest mesoanalysis). The close proximity of the mid-level shortwave and its eastward progression along with the potentially unfavorable spatial overlap of better deep-layer shear and low-level convergence will likely yield a very narrow window for severe potential, with veering winds aloft and subsidence behind the shortwave tempering development/severe risk. Thus, while the ambient environment remains conditionally favorable for large hail/damaging winds across portions of far southeastern Texas, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time owing to uncertainty regarding the development/persistence of sustained storms within this better environment. Trends will continue to be monitored, however. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30509369 30189367 29849375 29639394 29459442 29449481 29449534 29539613 29649677 29899720 30189764 30409774 30589760 30709731 30919656 31009614 31079577 31139546 31129495 31009426 30769383 30509369 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0687 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0687 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Areas affected...portions of the central Great Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 092032Z - 092130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development should occur from the eastern TX/OK Panhandles into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas this afternoon. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards. DISCUSSION...Weak convection is noted along a subtle boundary extending from southwestern Kansas into northeastern New Mexico, with modest moisture return ongoing ahead of this boundary and east of a dryline across the eastern TX/OK Panhandles, western Oklahoma, and northwest Texas. A developing Cu field is evident across this region in visible satellite imagery, with forecast soundings and latest mesoanalysis depicting 500-1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid eroding inhibition. Intensification of the southeastward moving convection as it encounters this greater moisture and additional development along a north-south oriented dryline across the eastern Texas Panhandle are both likely over the next couple of hours. Strengthening westerly flow aloft ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave trough is expected to promote increasing effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts, which will be sufficient for high-based supercells. Coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates, this will support a risk of large to very large hail. Steep low-level lapse rates, deep well-mixed boundary layers, and DCAPE of 1000+ J/kg will also promote a threat for severe wind gusts. Watch issuance will likely be needed. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33429955 33900035 34310053 34880069 35630086 36200080 36640071 36960029 37139960 36999882 36579852 35569840 34889840 34479848 33909866 33459897 33429955 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0688 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK...AND FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Areas affected...northern Ohio...western New York...and far northwest Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092036Z - 092200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts possible this afternoon and into the evening across parts of the eastern Great Lakes. DISCUSSION...A line of storms which first developed across eastern Michigan along a cold front continues east this afternoon. As these storms move off of Lake Erie/Ontario later this afternoon and into the evening, some damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly from far northeast Ohio into western New York. Instability is weak due to limited moisture but low-level lapse rates are steep and mid-level temperatures are cold. This may be sufficient to mix down some of the stronger (40 to 50 knot) mid-level flow between 3 and 4 km (sampled by the CLE/IWX/DTX/BUF VWPs). Some uncertainties remain given the cool Lake Erie/Ontario water temperatures and the aforementioned weak instability. Therefore, watch probabilities remain 40% for now and trends will be monitored. If storm intensity remains consistent as the storms approach this well-mixed airmass, a severe thunderstorm watch may need to be considered. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 41208395 41278428 41748376 42658216 43338130 43538032 43477915 43417803 42917810 42297831 41927864 41597932 41208045 41048136 41048246 41088320 41208395 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0685 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0685 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Areas affected...far southeast North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091927Z - 092100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts possible. DISCUSSION...A mini supercell, currently with no lightning, has developed across Columbus county, North Carolina. The LTX VWP shows gradually increasing wind with height and some low-level turning. This storm developed within a region of weak instability, but there is greater instability closer to the coast where the greater moisture is present. The most likely scenario will be a sub-severe mini-supercell, but given the strong wind profile and gradually increasing instability as it move east, a wind gust or even a tornado cannot be ruled out. Additionally, another cell could develop to its south/west and pose a similar threat through the afternoon. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... LAT...LON 34507719 34377752 34207771 33967785 34017812 34177845 34337851 34527833 34617761 34617726 34507719 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, central High Plains, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... 15% wind risk probabilities were introduced to the eastern shore of Lake Erie downstream of a developing squall line. Although buoyancy across this region remains fairly weak (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE per recent mesoanalysis estimates), boundary-layer mixing is noted along the eastern shore that may facilitate downward momentum transfer as the squall line moves onshore. Additionally, latest time-lagged HRRR/RRFS ensembles have shown a consistent signal for 45-60 mph gusts associated with the line during the late afternoon/evening hours, hinting that a localized corridor of higher wind potential may materialize. ...Northern Gulf Coast/Northern Florida... Severe probabilities along the northern Gulf Coast and across northern Florida have been reduced based on recent convective trends. Latest radar/satellite imagery depicts a frontal boundary pushing south into the northern Gulf with limited MUCAPE noted in recent mesoanalyses north of the boundary. Across northern FL, convection developing along the frontal zone has struggled to maintain intensity - likely owing to marginal forcing for ascent and poor mid-level lapse rates sampled by a recent 18 UTC JAX sounding. Severe wind probabilities have largely been adjusted across northeastern FL to reflect where stronger heating/better buoyancy will likely support more robust updrafts through late afternoon. ...Eastern Texas Panhandle... Severe hail/wind probabilities have been adjusted west from western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle where dewpoints are climbing into the low/mid 50s and shallow cumulus is beginning to develop along the dryline. These trends hint that the severe risk may emerge slightly further west than depicted by previous forecasts and guidance. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and MCDs 684, 685, and 686 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/ ...Southern/Central Plains... High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat. Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. ...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update. ...Great Lakes... Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Mid-Atlantic... Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, central High Plains, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... 15% wind risk probabilities were introduced to the eastern shore of Lake Erie downstream of a developing squall line. Although buoyancy across this region remains fairly weak (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE per recent mesoanalysis estimates), boundary-layer mixing is noted along the eastern shore that may facilitate downward momentum transfer as the squall line moves onshore. Additionally, latest time-lagged HRRR/RRFS ensembles have shown a consistent signal for 45-60 mph gusts associated with the line during the late afternoon/evening hours, hinting that a localized corridor of higher wind potential may materialize. ...Northern Gulf Coast/Northern Florida... Severe probabilities along the northern Gulf Coast and across northern Florida have been reduced based on recent convective trends. Latest radar/satellite imagery depicts a frontal boundary pushing south into the northern Gulf with limited MUCAPE noted in recent mesoanalyses north of the boundary. Across northern FL, convection developing along the frontal zone has struggled to maintain intensity - likely owing to marginal forcing for ascent and poor mid-level lapse rates sampled by a recent 18 UTC JAX sounding. Severe wind probabilities have largely been adjusted across northeastern FL to reflect where stronger heating/better buoyancy will likely support more robust updrafts through late afternoon. ...Eastern Texas Panhandle... Severe hail/wind probabilities have been adjusted west from western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle where dewpoints are climbing into the low/mid 50s and shallow cumulus is beginning to develop along the dryline. These trends hint that the severe risk may emerge slightly further west than depicted by previous forecasts and guidance. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and MCDs 684, 685, and 686 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/ ...Southern/Central Plains... High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat. Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. ...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update. ...Great Lakes... Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Mid-Atlantic... Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, central High Plains, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic. ...20z Update... 15% wind risk probabilities were introduced to the eastern shore of Lake Erie downstream of a developing squall line. Although buoyancy across this region remains fairly weak (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE per recent mesoanalysis estimates), boundary-layer mixing is noted along the eastern shore that may facilitate downward momentum transfer as the squall line moves onshore. Additionally, latest time-lagged HRRR/RRFS ensembles have shown a consistent signal for 45-60 mph gusts associated with the line during the late afternoon/evening hours, hinting that a localized corridor of higher wind potential may materialize. ...Northern Gulf Coast/Northern Florida... Severe probabilities along the northern Gulf Coast and across northern Florida have been reduced based on recent convective trends. Latest radar/satellite imagery depicts a frontal boundary pushing south into the northern Gulf with limited MUCAPE noted in recent mesoanalyses north of the boundary. Across northern FL, convection developing along the frontal zone has struggled to maintain intensity - likely owing to marginal forcing for ascent and poor mid-level lapse rates sampled by a recent 18 UTC JAX sounding. Severe wind probabilities have largely been adjusted across northeastern FL to reflect where stronger heating/better buoyancy will likely support more robust updrafts through late afternoon. ...Eastern Texas Panhandle... Severe hail/wind probabilities have been adjusted west from western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle where dewpoints are climbing into the low/mid 50s and shallow cumulus is beginning to develop along the dryline. These trends hint that the severe risk may emerge slightly further west than depicted by previous forecasts and guidance. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and MCDs 684, 685, and 686 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/ ...Southern/Central Plains... High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat. Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. ...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update. ...Great Lakes... Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Mid-Atlantic... Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southwest and Great Basin... Dry conditions including minimum surface RH of 5-15% by peak afternoon heating are expected across much of the Southwest (west of the Continental Divide) and Great Basin Sunday. A deeply mixed boundary layer will evolve under a building upper ridge by Sunday afternoon. However, overall surface winds will be rather light amid a diffuse pressure gradient field, limiting a broader fire weather threat across the region. No changes to the previous outlook were necessary. ..Williams.. 05/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... A limited overlap of warm, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southwest and Great Basin... Dry conditions including minimum surface RH of 5-15% by peak afternoon heating are expected across much of the Southwest (west of the Continental Divide) and Great Basin Sunday. A deeply mixed boundary layer will evolve under a building upper ridge by Sunday afternoon. However, overall surface winds will be rather light amid a diffuse pressure gradient field, limiting a broader fire weather threat across the region. No changes to the previous outlook were necessary. ..Williams.. 05/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... A limited overlap of warm, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southwest and Great Basin... Dry conditions including minimum surface RH of 5-15% by peak afternoon heating are expected across much of the Southwest (west of the Continental Divide) and Great Basin Sunday. A deeply mixed boundary layer will evolve under a building upper ridge by Sunday afternoon. However, overall surface winds will be rather light amid a diffuse pressure gradient field, limiting a broader fire weather threat across the region. No changes to the previous outlook were necessary. ..Williams.. 05/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... A limited overlap of warm, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southwest and Great Basin... Dry conditions including minimum surface RH of 5-15% by peak afternoon heating are expected across much of the Southwest (west of the Continental Divide) and Great Basin Sunday. A deeply mixed boundary layer will evolve under a building upper ridge by Sunday afternoon. However, overall surface winds will be rather light amid a diffuse pressure gradient field, limiting a broader fire weather threat across the region. No changes to the previous outlook were necessary. ..Williams.. 05/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... A limited overlap of warm, dry, and breezy conditions atop receptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0684 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0684 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Areas affected...portions of the central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091810Z - 092045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms will bring a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and small to perhaps marginally severe hail this afternoon from southeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and northeastern Colorado. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts a mid-level shortwave trough embedded within broad northwesterly flow moving southeastward from southern Montana into northwestern Wyoming. While low-level moisture remains very limited (dewpoints in the 30s F), cooling temperatures aloft downstream of this shortwave and continued insolation are yielding steepening low- and mid-level lapse rates per latest mesoanalysis. Model forecast soundings suggest that this will be sufficient for the development of weak buoyancy (250-500+ J/kg MLCAPE) by early-to-mid afternoon. Expectation is for ongoing, high-based convection across northern Wyoming to progress southeastward, with additional development likely across the high terrain areas of central/southeastern Wyoming over the next couple of hours. Despite the aforementioned limited low-level moisture, steep low-level lapse rates and dry, well-mixed boundary layer profiles will support the potential for isolated severe wind gusts. 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and steep mid-level lapse rates may also promote some risk for small to perhaps marginally severe hail with any stronger updrafts. With time, convection will spread southeastward into the Nebraska Panhandle and northeastern Colorado, with some potential for upscale growth into linear segments should cold pools coalesce. Given the forecast limited coverage/magnitude of the severe threat, watch issuance is unlikely at this time. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 41680678 42020741 42170765 42450766 42810725 43020649 43130584 43030532 42640451 41910321 41510269 40970269 40450309 40310397 40880518 41680678 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast Monday afternoon... A surface cold front will move southeastward into the northwest Gulf early in the period, likely aided by outflow from D2 convection. Farther east, the front will reach the coast of the Carolinas Monday afternoon, and the northeast Gulf coast/north FL by late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Aloft, a midlevel trough will progress eastward near the Gulf coast, in advance of the next digging wave over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible within the moist environment along the front. A few strong storms/clusters with wind damage may occur Monday afternoon along the front, where pockets of stronger surface heating occur in cloud breaks, coincident with modest enhancement of midlevel flow/deep-layer shear. Isolated strong storms will also be possible along the Atlantic coast sea breeze into the FL peninsula. ...Northern Plains to Upper MS Valley Monday afternoon/night... Low-level moisture will remain limited in advance of a midlevel trough digging southeastward, around the northeast periphery of a ridge over the Southwest. Deep surface mixing along the surface front/trough could support isolated, high-based storms Monday afternoon across ND. However, the more probable scenario will be for a few elevated storms to form by Monday evening/night over MN and adjacent areas of WI/IA where sufficient midlevel moistening/ascent occurs on the east edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates. ..Thompson.. 05/09/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast Monday afternoon... A surface cold front will move southeastward into the northwest Gulf early in the period, likely aided by outflow from D2 convection. Farther east, the front will reach the coast of the Carolinas Monday afternoon, and the northeast Gulf coast/north FL by late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Aloft, a midlevel trough will progress eastward near the Gulf coast, in advance of the next digging wave over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible within the moist environment along the front. A few strong storms/clusters with wind damage may occur Monday afternoon along the front, where pockets of stronger surface heating occur in cloud breaks, coincident with modest enhancement of midlevel flow/deep-layer shear. Isolated strong storms will also be possible along the Atlantic coast sea breeze into the FL peninsula. ...Northern Plains to Upper MS Valley Monday afternoon/night... Low-level moisture will remain limited in advance of a midlevel trough digging southeastward, around the northeast periphery of a ridge over the Southwest. Deep surface mixing along the surface front/trough could support isolated, high-based storms Monday afternoon across ND. However, the more probable scenario will be for a few elevated storms to form by Monday evening/night over MN and adjacent areas of WI/IA where sufficient midlevel moistening/ascent occurs on the east edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates. ..Thompson.. 05/09/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast Monday afternoon... A surface cold front will move southeastward into the northwest Gulf early in the period, likely aided by outflow from D2 convection. Farther east, the front will reach the coast of the Carolinas Monday afternoon, and the northeast Gulf coast/north FL by late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Aloft, a midlevel trough will progress eastward near the Gulf coast, in advance of the next digging wave over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible within the moist environment along the front. A few strong storms/clusters with wind damage may occur Monday afternoon along the front, where pockets of stronger surface heating occur in cloud breaks, coincident with modest enhancement of midlevel flow/deep-layer shear. Isolated strong storms will also be possible along the Atlantic coast sea breeze into the FL peninsula. ...Northern Plains to Upper MS Valley Monday afternoon/night... Low-level moisture will remain limited in advance of a midlevel trough digging southeastward, around the northeast periphery of a ridge over the Southwest. Deep surface mixing along the surface front/trough could support isolated, high-based storms Monday afternoon across ND. However, the more probable scenario will be for a few elevated storms to form by Monday evening/night over MN and adjacent areas of WI/IA where sufficient midlevel moistening/ascent occurs on the east edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates. ..Thompson.. 05/09/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast Monday afternoon... A surface cold front will move southeastward into the northwest Gulf early in the period, likely aided by outflow from D2 convection. Farther east, the front will reach the coast of the Carolinas Monday afternoon, and the northeast Gulf coast/north FL by late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Aloft, a midlevel trough will progress eastward near the Gulf coast, in advance of the next digging wave over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. Thunderstorms will be possible within the moist environment along the front. A few strong storms/clusters with wind damage may occur Monday afternoon along the front, where pockets of stronger surface heating occur in cloud breaks, coincident with modest enhancement of midlevel flow/deep-layer shear. Isolated strong storms will also be possible along the Atlantic coast sea breeze into the FL peninsula. ...Northern Plains to Upper MS Valley Monday afternoon/night... Low-level moisture will remain limited in advance of a midlevel trough digging southeastward, around the northeast periphery of a ridge over the Southwest. Deep surface mixing along the surface front/trough could support isolated, high-based storms Monday afternoon across ND. However, the more probable scenario will be for a few elevated storms to form by Monday evening/night over MN and adjacent areas of WI/IA where sufficient midlevel moistening/ascent occurs on the east edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates. ..Thompson.. 05/09/2026 Read more

MD 0682 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091711Z - 091915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...At least some risk for isolated damaging wind gusts may persist into the afternoon from the central Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a convectively reinforced surface front extending from near the Georgia coastline west-southwestward to offshore of the Emerald Coast of Florida. South of this surface boundary temperatures in the mid/upper-70s to low-80s F and dewpoints in the low/mid-70s will support around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by early this afternoon despite poor mid-level lapse rates (per latest mesoanalysis and the 12z JAX observed sounding). Strong effective bulk shear of 40-50+ kts will be sufficient to support organization of stronger updrafts, and PWATs of 1.75-1.90" across the region may support the potential for heavier water loading and isolated damaging wind gusts with any stronger cores over the next few hours, especially along and south of the aforementioned surface boundary. Trends will continue to be monitored, but watch issuance is not expected at this time owing to the marginal thermodynamic environment and the expectation for any severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and coverage. ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30148595 30168595 30348579 30408535 30508459 30578400 30748321 31038268 31308218 31468193 31448167 31228144 31018138 30628132 30258121 29888128 29718162 29578228 29508272 29458317 29438343 29688361 29888377 29958403 29918425 29738452 29618474 29528500 29608539 29948567 30148595 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 0683 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0683 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091729Z - 091930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Gradual thunderstorm intensification is anticipated through mid-afternoon across far eastern Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. Overall thunderstorm intensity and coverage should be sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery shows the early stages of convective initiation across eastern MI as a cold front begins to impinge on a plume of modest moisture (dewpoints in the low 50s). MRMS VIL data and lightning trends also show steady growth of these cells, suggesting that this is likely the onset of the severe threat that is expected to materialize through the day across the Lake Erie region as the front continues to push east. Although buoyancy will remain fairly marginal (MLCAPE values are currently estimated to be around 250 J/kg, but may increase to around 500 J/kg over the next few hours), regional VWPs are sampling strong flow aloft that is supporting 0-6 km BWD values on the order of 50 knots. Forecast soundings suggest that as convection matures it should reach sufficient depth to utilize this wind shear, leading to gradual organization and intensification. Sporadic large hail, possibly up to 1.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts will become increasingly possible before convection migrates over Lake Erie/portions of southern Ontario in the coming hours. The overall marginal thermodynamic environment should modulate convective intensity on the whole and support primarily a localized severe threat. ..Moore/Gleason.. 05/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 40938461 41148480 41498493 41808488 42038474 42308430 43118332 43618299 43908287 44028277 44058254 43968225 43448203 42918203 42258242 41428296 40918361 40858399 40938461 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe outflow gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. ...Southern Plains Sunday afternoon/night... Within the broader pattern of a Great Lakes trough and Intermountain ridge, an embedded shortwave trough now over the northern Rockies will progress southeastward to KS/OK by Sunday afternoon. In the wake of this shortwave trough and a separate northern stream wave over the Great Lakes, a surface cold front will move southeastward across OK/TX. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12z across OK in the vicinity of the front. There will be some potential for the overnight convection in OK to continue east-southeastward during the day into AR/northern LA into MS with the threat for at least isolated wind damage and large hail. Additional storm development is likely along the front Sunday afternoon from the Edwards Plateau into north TX, with the northern extent of development modulated by morning convection and associated convective outflow. Convective inhibition will diminish by early-mid afternoon and MLCAPE will increase to 2500-3000 J/kg as surface heating (temperatures of 85-90 F) drives deep mixing beneath an elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the open warm sector, with modest shear enhancement expected along the front and/or lingering convective outflows in the vicinity of the Red River. Somewhat discrete convection may occur initially with some supercell potential, which will drive the potential for isolated very large hail. The potential for severe outflow gusts will increase with upscale growth, given the steep lapse rate environment. Storms will likely reach the TX coast and deep South TX by early Monday morning. ...FL Sunday afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating across the FL peninsula will likely support sea breeze thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. The more probable zone for development will be skewed to the central peninsula and Atlantic coast given a westerly component to the low-midlevel flow. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be the main threats. ..Thompson.. 05/09/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe outflow gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. ...Southern Plains Sunday afternoon/night... Within the broader pattern of a Great Lakes trough and Intermountain ridge, an embedded shortwave trough now over the northern Rockies will progress southeastward to KS/OK by Sunday afternoon. In the wake of this shortwave trough and a separate northern stream wave over the Great Lakes, a surface cold front will move southeastward across OK/TX. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12z across OK in the vicinity of the front. There will be some potential for the overnight convection in OK to continue east-southeastward during the day into AR/northern LA into MS with the threat for at least isolated wind damage and large hail. Additional storm development is likely along the front Sunday afternoon from the Edwards Plateau into north TX, with the northern extent of development modulated by morning convection and associated convective outflow. Convective inhibition will diminish by early-mid afternoon and MLCAPE will increase to 2500-3000 J/kg as surface heating (temperatures of 85-90 F) drives deep mixing beneath an elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the open warm sector, with modest shear enhancement expected along the front and/or lingering convective outflows in the vicinity of the Red River. Somewhat discrete convection may occur initially with some supercell potential, which will drive the potential for isolated very large hail. The potential for severe outflow gusts will increase with upscale growth, given the steep lapse rate environment. Storms will likely reach the TX coast and deep South TX by early Monday morning. ...FL Sunday afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating across the FL peninsula will likely support sea breeze thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. The more probable zone for development will be skewed to the central peninsula and Atlantic coast given a westerly component to the low-midlevel flow. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be the main threats. ..Thompson.. 05/09/2026 Read more