Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... A persistent longwave trough is in place over the northwestern CONUS with perturbations moving through a belt of strong flow through the day on Monday. The associated surface low pressure will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin and central Rockies. A dry air mass and dry fuels are in place, leading to Critical fire weather risk in these areas ...Southwest, Great Basin, and the Central Rockies... Strong vertical mixing along with a strengthening pressure gradient will result in strong winds to 20-30 mph and RH near 5-15% in the afternoon. Fuels in the area have been persistently dry generally with poor overnight RH recovery exacerbating the dry fuels. Therefore, a Critical fire weather risk has been maintained here. ...Northwest New Mexico... Strong diurnal heating along with a compact jet max aloft overlapping a plume of mid-level moisture will likely result in isolated storm development across parts of northwestern New Mexico during the afternoon. A very dry boundary layer and fast storm motions suggest that this activity will be mainly dry. Due to the presence of dry fuels, have maintained an Isolated Dry Thunder area here. ..Supinie.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely. Farther south, widely scattered severe storms capable of very large hail and damaging winds with significant gusts will be possible across portions of the central Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. Additional, more isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the Midwest into lower Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough initially over the northern Rockies Tuesday morning will accelerate northeast into the north Plains, ahead of a more significant vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks moving into the northern and central Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, low pressure is expected develop from southeast MT into northwest ND during the day, along a Pacific front or dryline-like boundary shifting east through the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, a boundary initially across northern SD into northwest MN will retreat north to the International Border as a warm front. Elsewhere, a diffuse warm or quasi-stationary front will reside across portions of the mid MO Valley into mid MS Valley. ...Northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley... A 30-40 kt low-level jet will enhance moisture return south of warm front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, with MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500+ J/kg by afternoon within the poleward expanding warm sector. Height falls attendant to lead short-wave trough coupled with convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and Pacific front/dryline are expected to foster scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon over the western Dakotas. Strengthening deep-layer shear to 40-50 kt at a substantial angle to the surface front will support rapid evolution into supercells, which could initially be a bit higher based, given initiation on the western edge of richer, boundary-layer moisture. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard initially. Tornado potential is expected to increase through the evening as storms move east into an increasingly moist and more strongly sheared low-level environment. Model forecast soundings indicate large, clockwise-curved hodographs with substantial SRH. However, there is some uncertainty as to what the predominant storm mode will be during the time of the low-level shear amplification. As such, this forecast will include a 10% unconditional tornado probability with a conditional intensity group one. Higher values may be required in subsequent forecasts if confidence increases in a sustained discrete or semi-discrete storm mode. At some point, storms are expected to grow upscale into an MCS along coalescing storm-scale cool pools, signaling an increasing damaging wind risk across the Red River Valley Tuesday night. ...Central Plains... Recent model runs have trended toward an earlier arrival of the upstream short-wave trough mentioned in the synopsis, which results in meaningful height falls overspreading the dryline during the latter half of the diurnal heating cycle. Various models indicate the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon across western parts of NE and KS, perhaps as far southwest as northeast NM. Initial storms will form in a hot, deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Initially marginal deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into Tuesday evening, with the environment becoming supportive of high-based supercells capable of severe wind gusts and large hail. There is some model suggestion that the initial high-based storms may evolve into an MCS that progresses from central NE and northern KS through the mid MO Valley Tuesday night. Given the strongly unstable air mass forecast along the path of the MCS, the potential would exist for a substantial damaging wind event, including the possibility of intense wind gusts. Confidence in that scenario is low, which precludes the addition of higher unconditional probabilities. However, a conditional intensity group one has been added to acknowledge the potential magnitude of such an event. ...Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley... A moderate to strongly unstable air mass is expected to develop Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a diffuse warm front or quasi-stationary boundary oriented northwest-to-southeast across the region. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher unconditional severe probabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts will exists with any storms that can become sustained in that thermodynamic environment. ..Mead.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely. Farther south, widely scattered severe storms capable of very large hail and damaging winds with significant gusts will be possible across portions of the central Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. Additional, more isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the Midwest into lower Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough initially over the northern Rockies Tuesday morning will accelerate northeast into the north Plains, ahead of a more significant vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks moving into the northern and central Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, low pressure is expected develop from southeast MT into northwest ND during the day, along a Pacific front or dryline-like boundary shifting east through the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, a boundary initially across northern SD into northwest MN will retreat north to the International Border as a warm front. Elsewhere, a diffuse warm or quasi-stationary front will reside across portions of the mid MO Valley into mid MS Valley. ...Northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley... A 30-40 kt low-level jet will enhance moisture return south of warm front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, with MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500+ J/kg by afternoon within the poleward expanding warm sector. Height falls attendant to lead short-wave trough coupled with convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and Pacific front/dryline are expected to foster scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon over the western Dakotas. Strengthening deep-layer shear to 40-50 kt at a substantial angle to the surface front will support rapid evolution into supercells, which could initially be a bit higher based, given initiation on the western edge of richer, boundary-layer moisture. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard initially. Tornado potential is expected to increase through the evening as storms move east into an increasingly moist and more strongly sheared low-level environment. Model forecast soundings indicate large, clockwise-curved hodographs with substantial SRH. However, there is some uncertainty as to what the predominant storm mode will be during the time of the low-level shear amplification. As such, this forecast will include a 10% unconditional tornado probability with a conditional intensity group one. Higher values may be required in subsequent forecasts if confidence increases in a sustained discrete or semi-discrete storm mode. At some point, storms are expected to grow upscale into an MCS along coalescing storm-scale cool pools, signaling an increasing damaging wind risk across the Red River Valley Tuesday night. ...Central Plains... Recent model runs have trended toward an earlier arrival of the upstream short-wave trough mentioned in the synopsis, which results in meaningful height falls overspreading the dryline during the latter half of the diurnal heating cycle. Various models indicate the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon across western parts of NE and KS, perhaps as far southwest as northeast NM. Initial storms will form in a hot, deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Initially marginal deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into Tuesday evening, with the environment becoming supportive of high-based supercells capable of severe wind gusts and large hail. There is some model suggestion that the initial high-based storms may evolve into an MCS that progresses from central NE and northern KS through the mid MO Valley Tuesday night. Given the strongly unstable air mass forecast along the path of the MCS, the potential would exist for a substantial damaging wind event, including the possibility of intense wind gusts. Confidence in that scenario is low, which precludes the addition of higher unconditional probabilities. However, a conditional intensity group one has been added to acknowledge the potential magnitude of such an event. ...Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley... A moderate to strongly unstable air mass is expected to develop Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a diffuse warm front or quasi-stationary boundary oriented northwest-to-southeast across the region. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher unconditional severe probabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts will exists with any storms that can become sustained in that thermodynamic environment. ..Mead.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely. Farther south, widely scattered severe storms capable of very large hail and damaging winds with significant gusts will be possible across portions of the central Plains Tuesday afternoon into night. Additional, more isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from parts of the Midwest into lower Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough initially over the northern Rockies Tuesday morning will accelerate northeast into the north Plains, ahead of a more significant vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level jet streaks moving into the northern and central Plains Tuesday night. At the surface, low pressure is expected develop from southeast MT into northwest ND during the day, along a Pacific front or dryline-like boundary shifting east through the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, a boundary initially across northern SD into northwest MN will retreat north to the International Border as a warm front. Elsewhere, a diffuse warm or quasi-stationary front will reside across portions of the mid MO Valley into mid MS Valley. ...Northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley... A 30-40 kt low-level jet will enhance moisture return south of warm front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, with MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500+ J/kg by afternoon within the poleward expanding warm sector. Height falls attendant to lead short-wave trough coupled with convergence in the vicinity of the surface low and Pacific front/dryline are expected to foster scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon over the western Dakotas. Strengthening deep-layer shear to 40-50 kt at a substantial angle to the surface front will support rapid evolution into supercells, which could initially be a bit higher based, given initiation on the western edge of richer, boundary-layer moisture. Large to very large hail will be the primary hazard initially. Tornado potential is expected to increase through the evening as storms move east into an increasingly moist and more strongly sheared low-level environment. Model forecast soundings indicate large, clockwise-curved hodographs with substantial SRH. However, there is some uncertainty as to what the predominant storm mode will be during the time of the low-level shear amplification. As such, this forecast will include a 10% unconditional tornado probability with a conditional intensity group one. Higher values may be required in subsequent forecasts if confidence increases in a sustained discrete or semi-discrete storm mode. At some point, storms are expected to grow upscale into an MCS along coalescing storm-scale cool pools, signaling an increasing damaging wind risk across the Red River Valley Tuesday night. ...Central Plains... Recent model runs have trended toward an earlier arrival of the upstream short-wave trough mentioned in the synopsis, which results in meaningful height falls overspreading the dryline during the latter half of the diurnal heating cycle. Various models indicate the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon across western parts of NE and KS, perhaps as far southwest as northeast NM. Initial storms will form in a hot, deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Initially marginal deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into Tuesday evening, with the environment becoming supportive of high-based supercells capable of severe wind gusts and large hail. There is some model suggestion that the initial high-based storms may evolve into an MCS that progresses from central NE and northern KS through the mid MO Valley Tuesday night. Given the strongly unstable air mass forecast along the path of the MCS, the potential would exist for a substantial damaging wind event, including the possibility of intense wind gusts. Confidence in that scenario is low, which precludes the addition of higher unconditional probabilities. However, a conditional intensity group one has been added to acknowledge the potential magnitude of such an event. ...Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley... A moderate to strongly unstable air mass is expected to develop Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a diffuse warm front or quasi-stationary boundary oriented northwest-to-southeast across the region. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher unconditional severe probabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts will exists with any storms that can become sustained in that thermodynamic environment. ..Mead.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the end of the period in the northern High Plains. ...Front Range Into Central High Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the Intermountain West into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central High Plains as a low deepens ahead of the front. During the afternoon, an axis of maximized low-level convergence will become focused along the Front Range of east-central Colorado, along which thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon. These storms will move eastward out of the higher terrain into northeast Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. A line of severe storms is expected to organize by early evening. RAP forecast soundings in northeastern Colorado late this afternoon have MLCAPE peaking around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 55 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 8.5 C/km. This will support supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with any rotating storms that can become intense. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak around 200 m2/s2 over parts of northeastern Colorado during the late afternoon, which will support a tornado threat. As a cluster moves eastward into the central High Plains, organization into a line is expected. This will increase the potential for severe wind gusts, and a few gusts above 70 mph will be possible. ...Great Plains... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the southern and central Plains today, with surface dewpoints mostly from the upper 60s F into the mid 70s F. This will enable a pocket of strong instability to develop by afternoon across central Kansas. From near the instability max westward, model forecasts suggest that low-level convergence will become maximized during the afternoon over parts of western and central Kansas. This should result in isolated to scattered convective initiation. A cell or two is expected to develop and move southeastward into the strong instability during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability max at 21Z have MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. Low-level shear may also support a conditional and isolated tornado threat. In addition, the strong instability will contribute to a potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 70 mph with the more intense rotating cells. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move northeastward today across the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast from far western Kentucky into southern Illinois. Along this axis, deep-layer shear is forecast to be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. As low-level lapse rates steepen in the late afternoon, a few severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Northern High Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western U.S. today, as mid-level heights fall over the northern High Plains. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will form in eastern Montana tonight, as upslope flow develops to the east of the low. Near the surface low, low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized late in the period, which will support isolated thunderstorm development from northeast Montana into far northwestern North Dakota. Instability, deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates may be sufficient for an isolated hail threat, mainly between 09Z and 12Z Tuesday morning. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the end of the period in the northern High Plains. ...Front Range Into Central High Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the Intermountain West into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central High Plains as a low deepens ahead of the front. During the afternoon, an axis of maximized low-level convergence will become focused along the Front Range of east-central Colorado, along which thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon. These storms will move eastward out of the higher terrain into northeast Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. A line of severe storms is expected to organize by early evening. RAP forecast soundings in northeastern Colorado late this afternoon have MLCAPE peaking around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 55 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 8.5 C/km. This will support supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with any rotating storms that can become intense. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak around 200 m2/s2 over parts of northeastern Colorado during the late afternoon, which will support a tornado threat. As a cluster moves eastward into the central High Plains, organization into a line is expected. This will increase the potential for severe wind gusts, and a few gusts above 70 mph will be possible. ...Great Plains... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the southern and central Plains today, with surface dewpoints mostly from the upper 60s F into the mid 70s F. This will enable a pocket of strong instability to develop by afternoon across central Kansas. From near the instability max westward, model forecasts suggest that low-level convergence will become maximized during the afternoon over parts of western and central Kansas. This should result in isolated to scattered convective initiation. A cell or two is expected to develop and move southeastward into the strong instability during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability max at 21Z have MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. Low-level shear may also support a conditional and isolated tornado threat. In addition, the strong instability will contribute to a potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 70 mph with the more intense rotating cells. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move northeastward today across the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast from far western Kentucky into southern Illinois. Along this axis, deep-layer shear is forecast to be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. As low-level lapse rates steepen in the late afternoon, a few severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Northern High Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western U.S. today, as mid-level heights fall over the northern High Plains. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will form in eastern Montana tonight, as upslope flow develops to the east of the low. Near the surface low, low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized late in the period, which will support isolated thunderstorm development from northeast Montana into far northwestern North Dakota. Instability, deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates may be sufficient for an isolated hail threat, mainly between 09Z and 12Z Tuesday morning. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the end of the period in the northern High Plains. ...Front Range Into Central High Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the Intermountain West into the Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central High Plains as a low deepens ahead of the front. During the afternoon, an axis of maximized low-level convergence will become focused along the Front Range of east-central Colorado, along which thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon. These storms will move eastward out of the higher terrain into northeast Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. A line of severe storms is expected to organize by early evening. RAP forecast soundings in northeastern Colorado late this afternoon have MLCAPE peaking around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 55 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 8.5 C/km. This will support supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with any rotating storms that can become intense. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak around 200 m2/s2 over parts of northeastern Colorado during the late afternoon, which will support a tornado threat. As a cluster moves eastward into the central High Plains, organization into a line is expected. This will increase the potential for severe wind gusts, and a few gusts above 70 mph will be possible. ...Great Plains... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the southern and central Plains today, with surface dewpoints mostly from the upper 60s F into the mid 70s F. This will enable a pocket of strong instability to develop by afternoon across central Kansas. From near the instability max westward, model forecasts suggest that low-level convergence will become maximized during the afternoon over parts of western and central Kansas. This should result in isolated to scattered convective initiation. A cell or two is expected to develop and move southeastward into the strong instability during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability max at 21Z have MLCAPE near 4000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. Low-level shear may also support a conditional and isolated tornado threat. In addition, the strong instability will contribute to a potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 70 mph with the more intense rotating cells. ...Mid Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move northeastward today across the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability is forecast from far western Kentucky into southern Illinois. Along this axis, deep-layer shear is forecast to be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. As low-level lapse rates steepen in the late afternoon, a few severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Northern High Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western U.S. today, as mid-level heights fall over the northern High Plains. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will form in eastern Montana tonight, as upslope flow develops to the east of the low. Near the surface low, low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized late in the period, which will support isolated thunderstorm development from northeast Montana into far northwestern North Dakota. Instability, deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates may be sufficient for an isolated hail threat, mainly between 09Z and 12Z Tuesday morning. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 06/08/2026 Read more

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0286 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1023 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1023 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri...northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 080533Z - 080730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scatted convection driven by warm advection could occasionally become severe and produce wind damage and, conditionally, a tornado. The need for a watch is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection has increased within the MO/KS/AR/OK region this evening. Widely scattered storms have developed in response to the low-level jet. The airmass is quite moist with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F. As such, MLCIN is fairly minimal. The moderate to strong low-level advection has increased SRH per regional VAD data. While conditional, the tornado threat is not zero. However, isolated wind damage is likely the primary hazard with these storms. Some guidance has suggested that enough storm development will occur that a cold pool could develop. Should this happen, a small MCS could track into more of Arkansas where greater buoyancy resides. ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 35929565 36059650 36559674 37489623 37559468 37109357 36449318 35949325 35649394 35929565 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1022 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota and northern South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285... Valid 080408Z - 080545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285 continues. SUMMARY...A few severe gusts remain possible tonight mainly over north-central North Dakota. Convection is generally weakening and a downstream watch appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...Severe storms across WW285 have shown a decrease in intensity over the last hour. This trend is likely to continue as these storms move eastward into a less unstable air mass across ND. Still, a few severe gusts are possible, mainly over portions of north-central ND where the cold pool is the strongest. Thus some severe risk will continue over WW285 which has been extended in time to 0600z. A downstream watch is unlikely given the expected weakening as the line moves into eastern ND. Farther south, additional convective development across northwestern SD is likely occurring behind the surface front/outflow from prior convection. Recent reports of 50-55 mph gusts from SDDOT sensors suggest some potential for isolated severe gusts through the remainder of this evening and into the overnight hours. However, increasing inhibition lends low confidence to any sustained severe risk. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 49050106 49079956 49089847 46699839 46069907 45160069 44960161 45000259 45510274 46000201 46940062 47440044 49050106 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW RAP TO 20 W 2WX TO 25 NW Y22 TO 40 ENE DIK TO 45 WNW N60 TO 45 WNW MOT TO 65 NW MOT TO 80 NE ISN. ..LYONS..06/08/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-009-015-033-037-041-049-055-057-059-061-065-069-075-079- 083-085-101-080340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX WARD SDC019-031-063-105-080340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CORSON HARDING PERKINS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW RAP TO 20 W 2WX TO 25 NW Y22 TO 40 ENE DIK TO 45 WNW N60 TO 45 WNW MOT TO 65 NW MOT TO 80 NE ISN. ..LYONS..06/08/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-009-015-033-037-041-049-055-057-059-061-065-069-075-079- 083-085-101-080340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX WARD SDC019-031-063-105-080340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CORSON HARDING PERKINS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW RAP TO 20 W 2WX TO 25 NW Y22 TO 40 ENE DIK TO 45 WNW N60 TO 45 WNW MOT TO 65 NW MOT TO 80 NE ISN. ..LYONS..06/08/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-009-015-033-037-041-049-055-057-059-061-065-069-075-079- 083-085-101-080340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX WARD SDC019-031-063-105-080340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CORSON HARDING PERKINS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW RAP TO 20 W 2WX TO 25 NW Y22 TO 40 ENE DIK TO 45 WNW N60 TO 45 WNW MOT TO 65 NW MOT TO 80 NE ISN. ..LYONS..06/08/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 285 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-009-015-033-037-041-049-055-057-059-061-065-069-075-079- 083-085-101-080340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT HETTINGER MCHENRY MCLEAN MERCER MORTON MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX WARD SDC019-031-063-105-080340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CORSON HARDING PERKINS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 285 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 072055Z - 080400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeastern and Eastern Montana Western and Central North Dakota Western and Northwestern South Dakota Northeastern Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM MDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 100 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and intensify across western portions of the Watch. An initial linear cluster of severe thunderstorms is forecast to evolve into a bow echo as it matures and moves into the western Dakotas this evening. A corresponding intensification of the severe-wind threat is expected with widespread severe gusts expected and 80 to 100 mph gusts likely in localized swaths. Large to very large hail may also occur with storms that can develop ahead of the squall line. A tornado is possible with the squall line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 125 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north of Sheridan WY to 55 miles north northeast of Bismarck ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 284... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 85 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22050. ...Smith Read more

MD 1020 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285... FOR FAR NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1020 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Areas affected...far northern South Dakota into much of North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285... Valid 080201Z - 080330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds continues across WW285. Gusts to 75+ mph are possible with the better organized linear segments now appearing in ND. DISCUSSION...As of 0200 UTC, numerous severe thunderstorms were ongoing across western ND and northwestern SD. Over the last hour, activity has finally grown upscale into several linear clusters. Strong buoyancy remains in place ahead of these storms which will support a continued risk for damaging winds this evening. Recent reports at KDIK of 82 and 85 mph also show the environment remains capable of significant gusts. This should continue this evening with some severe gusts of 75-90 mph likely as the better organized line segment moves northeastward. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45870246 46620275 47090320 47590401 48330396 49040362 49040165 49109935 48299960 47759959 47289974 45760036 45580175 45520218 45670232 45870246 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1021 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1021 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0915 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026 Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska and far northeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080215Z - 080315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of storms may produce a few severe gusts and large hail this evening across portions of western Nebraska and far northeastern Colorado. A watch is not likely at this time. DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing across western Nebraska this evening south of a mid-level jet and associated surface low, situated across southwestern South Dakota. The 00Z LBF RAOB showed generally weak winds through the depth of the column but generally steep lapse rates. Relatively low boundary-layer relative humidity may contribute to a threat for severe gusts, and the steep lapse rates may result in a threat for large hail, though modest deep-layer shear may limit this threat. Storm coverage should generally decline with loss of diurnal heating and associated increase in inhibition. However, moist south-southeasterlies and the development of a low-level jet with boundary-layer decoupling may allow the cluster of storms to persist for a couple hours after sunset. Due to the short duration and localized nature of this threat, a watch is unlikely at this time. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41150361 41480353 41870306 42030219 42050159 41660129 41300178 41030226 40910283 40900331 41150361 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2026 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Western and Central North Dakota Eastern Montana Western South Dakota * HAZARDS... Widespread hurricane-force damaging winds A couple tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A bow echo thunderstorm complex with widespread damaging winds and significant severe gusts up to 100 mph appear likely over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/07/2026 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2026 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Western and Central North Dakota Eastern Montana Western South Dakota * HAZARDS... Widespread hurricane-force damaging winds A couple tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A bow echo thunderstorm complex with widespread damaging winds and significant severe gusts up to 100 mph appear likely over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/07/2026 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2026 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Western and Central North Dakota Eastern Montana Western South Dakota * HAZARDS... Widespread hurricane-force damaging winds A couple tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... A bow echo thunderstorm complex with widespread damaging winds and significant severe gusts up to 100 mph appear likely over parts of the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Gleason.. 06/07/2026 Read more