SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND
FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail
are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into
Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear
possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains,
and southeast Arizona.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys...
A very moist airmass is in place from the Upper Midwest into the OH
and TN Valley. This airmass is exists south of a diffuse cold front
that extends from a surface low over far southeast Manitoba
southeastward to far eastern Upper MI. One thunderstorm is currently
ongoing near this boundary over eastern Upper MI. Most of the
thunderstorms are ongoing just northeast another surface boundary
demarcating the very moist (i.e. 70+ dewpoints) to it southwest. How
this warm-air advection activity evolves early this morning will
have a large impact on the severe potential farther downstream from
the Mid MS Valley into the OH and TN Valleys through the late
morning into the afternoon and evening.
Much of the guidance is beginning to suggest the warm-air advection
activity clusters early this morning over the MN Arrowhead vicinity
before then tracking southeastward within the moisture/buoyancy
gradient and organizing/intensifying significantly. Synoptically,
the overall setup matches many characteristics of scenarios with
strong, forward-propagating MCSs, including a surface boundary
parallel to the deep-layer shear, at least modest mid-level warm
advection, and very strong to extreme buoyancy. Given the trend
within the guidance and favorable synoptics, confidence in the
development of a strong forward-propagating MCS is high enough to
adjust the 30% wind probabilities westward while also introducing a
CIG1 area. There is a chance that both higher wind probabilities and
a CIG2 may be needed, but predictability regarding convective
evolution is too low at this time.
...Central High Plains into western/central NE and SD...
Moist, post-frontal surface flow is expected across much of NE and
SD, shifting from northerly early in the day to more easterly by the
afternoon. Dewpoints will initially be in the mid to upper 70s,
although strong boundary-layer mixing will likely result in
dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s/low 60s across the NE Panhandle
to the low 70s across eastern NE. This reservoir of low-level
moisture coupled with strong heating and steep mid-level lapse rates
will result in a corridor of moderate to extreme buoyancy from
eastern WY/northeast CO/southwest SD eastward across south-central
SD and much of NE.
Most of the guidance indicates a subtle, convectively augmented
vorticity maximum will progress eastward through the northern
periphery of the Four Corner upper ridge. This should contribute to
thunderstorm development across the high terrain, which would then
progress downstream into a more moist and unstable airmass. One or
more clusters could evolve, but the overall predictability of the
convective evolution is low. That being said, environmental
conditions support the potential for strong to severe gusts,
including the potential for some over 75 mph. Eastern extent of the
wind threat will likely be limited by building convective inhibition
associated with nocturnal cool, unless a more coherent and
organized MCS were to evolve. If that occurs, the wind threat could
extend farther east into more of eastern NE and north-central KS,
and 5% wind probabilities were expanded eastward/southeastward to
account for this potential.
Depending on the strength of the MCS, the wind threat could extend
eastward into more of OH and PA, and also farther southward into
more of TN, during the late afternoon/evening.
...Mid-Atlantic States...
Some wind threat could exist during the afternoon/evening across the
Mid-Atlantic, where marginal buoyancy and deep-layer shear could
support a few stronger updrafts.
...Southeast Arizona...
Isolated severe gusts are possible over southeast AZ as mid-level
moisture and daytime heating leads to scattered storms over
the higher terrain, particularly far southeast AZ. Cells are
expected to move westward into warmer temperatures and deeper
boundary-layer mixing, with PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level
lapse rates supporting strong outflows.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 07/27/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND
FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail
are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into
Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear
possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains,
and southeast Arizona.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys...
A very moist airmass is in place from the Upper Midwest into the OH
and TN Valley. This airmass is exists south of a diffuse cold front
that extends from a surface low over far southeast Manitoba
southeastward to far eastern Upper MI. One thunderstorm is currently
ongoing near this boundary over eastern Upper MI. Most of the
thunderstorms are ongoing just northeast another surface boundary
demarcating the very moist (i.e. 70+ dewpoints) to it southwest. How
this warm-air advection activity evolves early this morning will
have a large impact on the severe potential farther downstream from
the Mid MS Valley into the OH and TN Valleys through the late
morning into the afternoon and evening.
Much of the guidance is beginning to suggest the warm-air advection
activity clusters early this morning over the MN Arrowhead vicinity
before then tracking southeastward within the moisture/buoyancy
gradient and organizing/intensifying significantly. Synoptically,
the overall setup matches many characteristics of scenarios with
strong, forward-propagating MCSs, including a surface boundary
parallel to the deep-layer shear, at least modest mid-level warm
advection, and very strong to extreme buoyancy. Given the trend
within the guidance and favorable synoptics, confidence in the
development of a strong forward-propagating MCS is high enough to
adjust the 30% wind probabilities westward while also introducing a
CIG1 area. There is a chance that both higher wind probabilities and
a CIG2 may be needed, but predictability regarding convective
evolution is too low at this time.
...Central High Plains into western/central NE and SD...
Moist, post-frontal surface flow is expected across much of NE and
SD, shifting from northerly early in the day to more easterly by the
afternoon. Dewpoints will initially be in the mid to upper 70s,
although strong boundary-layer mixing will likely result in
dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s/low 60s across the NE Panhandle
to the low 70s across eastern NE. This reservoir of low-level
moisture coupled with strong heating and steep mid-level lapse rates
will result in a corridor of moderate to extreme buoyancy from
eastern WY/northeast CO/southwest SD eastward across south-central
SD and much of NE.
Most of the guidance indicates a subtle, convectively augmented
vorticity maximum will progress eastward through the northern
periphery of the Four Corner upper ridge. This should contribute to
thunderstorm development across the high terrain, which would then
progress downstream into a more moist and unstable airmass. One or
more clusters could evolve, but the overall predictability of the
convective evolution is low. That being said, environmental
conditions support the potential for strong to severe gusts,
including the potential for some over 75 mph. Eastern extent of the
wind threat will likely be limited by building convective inhibition
associated with nocturnal cool, unless a more coherent and
organized MCS were to evolve. If that occurs, the wind threat could
extend farther east into more of eastern NE and north-central KS,
and 5% wind probabilities were expanded eastward/southeastward to
account for this potential.
Depending on the strength of the MCS, the wind threat could extend
eastward into more of OH and PA, and also farther southward into
more of TN, during the late afternoon/evening.
...Mid-Atlantic States...
Some wind threat could exist during the afternoon/evening across the
Mid-Atlantic, where marginal buoyancy and deep-layer shear could
support a few stronger updrafts.
...Southeast Arizona...
Isolated severe gusts are possible over southeast AZ as mid-level
moisture and daytime heating leads to scattered storms over
the higher terrain, particularly far southeast AZ. Cells are
expected to move westward into warmer temperatures and deeper
boundary-layer mixing, with PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level
lapse rates supporting strong outflows.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 07/27/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND
FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail
are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into
Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear
possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains,
and southeast Arizona.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys...
A very moist airmass is in place from the Upper Midwest into the OH
and TN Valley. This airmass is exists south of a diffuse cold front
that extends from a surface low over far southeast Manitoba
southeastward to far eastern Upper MI. One thunderstorm is currently
ongoing near this boundary over eastern Upper MI. Most of the
thunderstorms are ongoing just northeast another surface boundary
demarcating the very moist (i.e. 70+ dewpoints) to it southwest. How
this warm-air advection activity evolves early this morning will
have a large impact on the severe potential farther downstream from
the Mid MS Valley into the OH and TN Valleys through the late
morning into the afternoon and evening.
Much of the guidance is beginning to suggest the warm-air advection
activity clusters early this morning over the MN Arrowhead vicinity
before then tracking southeastward within the moisture/buoyancy
gradient and organizing/intensifying significantly. Synoptically,
the overall setup matches many characteristics of scenarios with
strong, forward-propagating MCSs, including a surface boundary
parallel to the deep-layer shear, at least modest mid-level warm
advection, and very strong to extreme buoyancy. Given the trend
within the guidance and favorable synoptics, confidence in the
development of a strong forward-propagating MCS is high enough to
adjust the 30% wind probabilities westward while also introducing a
CIG1 area. There is a chance that both higher wind probabilities and
a CIG2 may be needed, but predictability regarding convective
evolution is too low at this time.
...Central High Plains into western/central NE and SD...
Moist, post-frontal surface flow is expected across much of NE and
SD, shifting from northerly early in the day to more easterly by the
afternoon. Dewpoints will initially be in the mid to upper 70s,
although strong boundary-layer mixing will likely result in
dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s/low 60s across the NE Panhandle
to the low 70s across eastern NE. This reservoir of low-level
moisture coupled with strong heating and steep mid-level lapse rates
will result in a corridor of moderate to extreme buoyancy from
eastern WY/northeast CO/southwest SD eastward across south-central
SD and much of NE.
Most of the guidance indicates a subtle, convectively augmented
vorticity maximum will progress eastward through the northern
periphery of the Four Corner upper ridge. This should contribute to
thunderstorm development across the high terrain, which would then
progress downstream into a more moist and unstable airmass. One or
more clusters could evolve, but the overall predictability of the
convective evolution is low. That being said, environmental
conditions support the potential for strong to severe gusts,
including the potential for some over 75 mph. Eastern extent of the
wind threat will likely be limited by building convective inhibition
associated with nocturnal cool, unless a more coherent and
organized MCS were to evolve. If that occurs, the wind threat could
extend farther east into more of eastern NE and north-central KS,
and 5% wind probabilities were expanded eastward/southeastward to
account for this potential.
Depending on the strength of the MCS, the wind threat could extend
eastward into more of OH and PA, and also farther southward into
more of TN, during the late afternoon/evening.
...Mid-Atlantic States...
Some wind threat could exist during the afternoon/evening across the
Mid-Atlantic, where marginal buoyancy and deep-layer shear could
support a few stronger updrafts.
...Southeast Arizona...
Isolated severe gusts are possible over southeast AZ as mid-level
moisture and daytime heating leads to scattered storms over
the higher terrain, particularly far southeast AZ. Cells are
expected to move westward into warmer temperatures and deeper
boundary-layer mixing, with PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level
lapse rates supporting strong outflows.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 07/27/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND
FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of strong to severe wind gusts and large hail
are possible across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday into
Monday night. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind appear
possible in the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, central High Plains,
and southeast Arizona.
...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys...
A very moist airmass is in place from the Upper Midwest into the OH
and TN Valley. This airmass is exists south of a diffuse cold front
that extends from a surface low over far southeast Manitoba
southeastward to far eastern Upper MI. One thunderstorm is currently
ongoing near this boundary over eastern Upper MI. Most of the
thunderstorms are ongoing just northeast another surface boundary
demarcating the very moist (i.e. 70+ dewpoints) to it southwest. How
this warm-air advection activity evolves early this morning will
have a large impact on the severe potential farther downstream from
the Mid MS Valley into the OH and TN Valleys through the late
morning into the afternoon and evening.
Much of the guidance is beginning to suggest the warm-air advection
activity clusters early this morning over the MN Arrowhead vicinity
before then tracking southeastward within the moisture/buoyancy
gradient and organizing/intensifying significantly. Synoptically,
the overall setup matches many characteristics of scenarios with
strong, forward-propagating MCSs, including a surface boundary
parallel to the deep-layer shear, at least modest mid-level warm
advection, and very strong to extreme buoyancy. Given the trend
within the guidance and favorable synoptics, confidence in the
development of a strong forward-propagating MCS is high enough to
adjust the 30% wind probabilities westward while also introducing a
CIG1 area. There is a chance that both higher wind probabilities and
a CIG2 may be needed, but predictability regarding convective
evolution is too low at this time.
...Central High Plains into western/central NE and SD...
Moist, post-frontal surface flow is expected across much of NE and
SD, shifting from northerly early in the day to more easterly by the
afternoon. Dewpoints will initially be in the mid to upper 70s,
although strong boundary-layer mixing will likely result in
dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s/low 60s across the NE Panhandle
to the low 70s across eastern NE. This reservoir of low-level
moisture coupled with strong heating and steep mid-level lapse rates
will result in a corridor of moderate to extreme buoyancy from
eastern WY/northeast CO/southwest SD eastward across south-central
SD and much of NE.
Most of the guidance indicates a subtle, convectively augmented
vorticity maximum will progress eastward through the northern
periphery of the Four Corner upper ridge. This should contribute to
thunderstorm development across the high terrain, which would then
progress downstream into a more moist and unstable airmass. One or
more clusters could evolve, but the overall predictability of the
convective evolution is low. That being said, environmental
conditions support the potential for strong to severe gusts,
including the potential for some over 75 mph. Eastern extent of the
wind threat will likely be limited by building convective inhibition
associated with nocturnal cool, unless a more coherent and
organized MCS were to evolve. If that occurs, the wind threat could
extend farther east into more of eastern NE and north-central KS,
and 5% wind probabilities were expanded eastward/southeastward to
account for this potential.
Depending on the strength of the MCS, the wind threat could extend
eastward into more of OH and PA, and also farther southward into
more of TN, during the late afternoon/evening.
...Mid-Atlantic States...
Some wind threat could exist during the afternoon/evening across the
Mid-Atlantic, where marginal buoyancy and deep-layer shear could
support a few stronger updrafts.
...Southeast Arizona...
Isolated severe gusts are possible over southeast AZ as mid-level
moisture and daytime heating leads to scattered storms over
the higher terrain, particularly far southeast AZ. Cells are
expected to move westward into warmer temperatures and deeper
boundary-layer mixing, with PWAT over 1.25" and steep low-level
lapse rates supporting strong outflows.
..Mosier/Squitieri.. 07/27/2026
Read more
MD 1754 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN UPPER MI INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Upper MI into northern Lower MI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 270439Z - 270645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may increase in coverage
overnight.
DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster has recently intensified across
southeast Lake Superior and adjacent Upper MI. This convection is
potentially being aided by a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough
moving southeastward across the region. There may be some tendency
for storms to increase in coverage overnight and move
south-southeastward along the primary buoyancy gradient. Relatively
steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and effective shear
of 40+ kt will continue to conditionally support storm organization.
Isolated hail may occur with the strongest cells, while any notable
upscale growth could result in an increasing wind-damage threat.
Uncertainty remains high regarding storm evolution overnight, and
short-term guidance continues to struggle with handling ongoing
convection. While the severe threat may remain relatively isolated
in this region, watch issuance is possible if observational trends
support an increasing coverage of severe threat.
..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...
LAT...LON 46758598 46888488 46428405 45428356 44138360 43878380
43878492 44008589 44268637 44988676 45278678 45608683
46518621 46758598
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 1755 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN MN/WI INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1755
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Areas affected...Northern MN/WI into western/central Upper MI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 270454Z - 270630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The severe-storm threat is expected to increase overnight,
and watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...Elevated convection continues across parts of northern
MN/WI late this evening, to the cool side of a nearly stationary
baroclinic zone. The environment remains conditionally favorable
across the region, with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and strong
deep-layer shear. In the short term, the strongest elevated storms
will be capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging gusts.
Most guidance continues to depict an increase in storm coverage and
eventual clustering/upscale growth, though this evolution has been
slow to materialize thus far. Increasing low-level warm advection
should eventually result in additional storm development, resulting
in an increasing severe threat overnight. Watch issuance is possible
if trends begin to support intensification of ongoing cells and/or
incipient upscale growth.
..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 48979545 47689001 46258806 44948742 44108771 44118926
45159168 45719292 46849452 47739536 48889620 48979545
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517... FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN AL AND FAR NORTHEAST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Areas affected...Southwest/southern middle TN into northern AL and
far northeast MS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517...
Valid 270406Z - 270530Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind will remain possible into the early
morning hours.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster continues to move southward
across parts of western/middle TN late this evening. Some weakening
has been noted over the last 1-2 hours, and a gradual weakening
trend is expected to continue, due to weak low-level flow and weaker
deep-layer flow/shear with southward extent. However, very rich
low-level moisture continues to support strong to extreme buoyancy,
with downstream MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range. This buoyancy
may aid in occasional updraft intensification along the gust front,
and a continuation of at least an isolated damaging-wind threat into
the early overnight hours across northern AL and far northeast MS.
..Dean.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 35858833 35718707 35468664 34648665 34188773 34358840
35058868 35448867 35858833
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Another day of mid-level ridging will characterize the upper-air
pattern for the western CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). As in the past
couple of days, upper flow pivoting around the ridge should continue
to weaken in intensity, supporting a weaker surface wind field in
turn. Widespread dry conditions are expected across western portions
of the Great Basin toward the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies. Nonetheless, the lack of a stronger surface wind field
precludes fire weather highlights at this time.
..Squitieri.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Another day of mid-level ridging will characterize the upper-air
pattern for the western CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). As in the past
couple of days, upper flow pivoting around the ridge should continue
to weaken in intensity, supporting a weaker surface wind field in
turn. Widespread dry conditions are expected across western portions
of the Great Basin toward the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies. Nonetheless, the lack of a stronger surface wind field
precludes fire weather highlights at this time.
..Squitieri.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Another day of mid-level ridging will characterize the upper-air
pattern for the western CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). As in the past
couple of days, upper flow pivoting around the ridge should continue
to weaken in intensity, supporting a weaker surface wind field in
turn. Widespread dry conditions are expected across western portions
of the Great Basin toward the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies. Nonetheless, the lack of a stronger surface wind field
precludes fire weather highlights at this time.
..Squitieri.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Another day of mid-level ridging will characterize the upper-air
pattern for the western CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). As in the past
couple of days, upper flow pivoting around the ridge should continue
to weaken in intensity, supporting a weaker surface wind field in
turn. Widespread dry conditions are expected across western portions
of the Great Basin toward the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies. Nonetheless, the lack of a stronger surface wind field
precludes fire weather highlights at this time.
..Squitieri.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place over the western CONUS today,
with modest mid-level flow poised to pivot around the ridge during
the afternoon hours, when a deep and dry boundary layer will
encourage downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft.
The most likely location for boundary-layer mixing and associated
stronger surface winds will be across the northern Sierra into the
northern Rockies, where southwesterly surface winds may occasionally
exceed 15 mph amid 20 percent RH and dry fuels. As such, Elevated
highlights have been maintained.
..Squitieri.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place over the western CONUS today,
with modest mid-level flow poised to pivot around the ridge during
the afternoon hours, when a deep and dry boundary layer will
encourage downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft.
The most likely location for boundary-layer mixing and associated
stronger surface winds will be across the northern Sierra into the
northern Rockies, where southwesterly surface winds may occasionally
exceed 15 mph amid 20 percent RH and dry fuels. As such, Elevated
highlights have been maintained.
..Squitieri.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place over the western CONUS today,
with modest mid-level flow poised to pivot around the ridge during
the afternoon hours, when a deep and dry boundary layer will
encourage downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft.
The most likely location for boundary-layer mixing and associated
stronger surface winds will be across the northern Sierra into the
northern Rockies, where southwesterly surface winds may occasionally
exceed 15 mph amid 20 percent RH and dry fuels. As such, Elevated
highlights have been maintained.
..Squitieri.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place over the western CONUS today,
with modest mid-level flow poised to pivot around the ridge during
the afternoon hours, when a deep and dry boundary layer will
encourage downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft.
The most likely location for boundary-layer mixing and associated
stronger surface winds will be across the northern Sierra into the
northern Rockies, where southwesterly surface winds may occasionally
exceed 15 mph amid 20 percent RH and dry fuels. As such, Elevated
highlights have been maintained.
..Squitieri.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 1750 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF VA/MD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Areas affected...Parts of VA/MD into western/central NC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 270104Z - 270300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will be possible through
the evening.
DISCUSSION...Isolated strong storms across VA have gradually
intensified this evening, with short-term guidance suggesting a
continued increase in storm coverage with time. While thermodynamic
profiles are not particularly favorable (with weak lapse rates and
rather cool surface temperatures), seasonably strong northwesterly
mid/upper-level flow (as noted on the 00Z RNK sounding) associated
with a mid/upper trough over the eastern CONUS will provide
sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storm structures.
Relatively organized multicells and perhaps a couple of marginal
supercells may evolve with time across the region. With marginal
thermodynamic profiles and the onset of nocturnal cooling, storms
may struggle to achieve severe intensity. However, any organized
cells or clusters could pose a threat of locally damaging wind
through the evening, while a brief tornado and small to near-severe
hail cannot be ruled out with any persistent supercell.
..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 35738124 38047892 39277781 39317720 39077660 38627639
37587704 36067843 35487938 35357980 35348040 35438095
35738124
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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MD 1751 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1751
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Areas affected...portions of central and northern Wisconsin into
western parts of Upper Michigan
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 270128Z - 270300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing across portions of
northern WI. If storms can mature and develop into an MCS, a severe
wind swath may occur. A WW issuance may be needed, but this depends
on further development and intensification of storms.
DISCUSSION...A complex mesoscale scenario exists across northern
portions of WI, where there is a conditional risk for supercells
growing upscale into an MCS over the next couple of hours. Storms
within a low-level warm-air advection regime have begun to rapidly
track towards an elongated corridor of strong instability (up to
4000 J/kg MLCAPE driven by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop mid
70s F dewpoints), and up to 50 kts of effective bulk shear (shown by
the GRB 00z observed sounding and 01Z mesoanalysis).
Nonetheless, appreciable MLCINH and multiple outflow boundaries
and/or stabilizing lake-breezes also exist across the warm sector in
northern WI, which is also being grazed by a plume of smoke
originating from Canada. All of these factors have the capability of
limiting further convective development. Therefore, it is unclear if
the ongoing storms will intensify and impose a more immediate severe
threat, or if a greater severe threat will manifest from storms that
develop later this evening. Some of the latest CAM guidance,
including WoFs, suggests that the main severe threat will
materialize after 06Z. As such, the short-term severe threat is
highly uncertain, but given the volatility of the ambient
environment, convective trends will be closely monitored for the
need of a WW issuance.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46469285 46819261 47149215 46969027 46258833 45648785
44898778 44178791 44048820 44118939 44739122 45759260
46469285
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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MD 1752 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516...517... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1752
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Areas affected...portions of far southern Kentucky into western and
middle Tennessee
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516...517...
Valid 270151Z - 270245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516, 517
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging gusts remain a concern for the next few hours, a
couple of which may reach 55-70 mph.
DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS continues to propagate southward
across southern KY and is approaching western and middle TN. This
MCS has a history of damaging gusts, and continues to traverse a
corridor of 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts of effective bulk
shear. While this MCS is beginning to outpace the more favorable
vertical wind shear, the rich moisture in place (e.g. the 75-80 F
dewpoints contributing to the extreme buoyancy) will compensate for
a continued damaging gust threat for at least a few more hours.
Since the MCS continues to track southward at approximately 30-35
kts, it is poised to cross western and middle TN in the 9-11 PM CDT
period.
..Squitieri.. 07/27/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35808865 37008878 37278876 37348868 37378856 37268815
37148763 37158710 37318671 37468632 37388597 37178587
36858599 36468647 35828661 35338669 35168697 35138747
35178796 35378837 35808865
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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