SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts are possible across portions of the Midwest this
afternoon into tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with
large to very large hail extends into portions of the
central/southern Plains.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains largely on track. Only minor changes
were made to the thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the
latest trends in observations and high resolution model guidance.
..Squitieri.. 05/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026/
...IL into the southern Great Lakes...
A mid-level vorticity maximum over the lower MO Valley is forecast
to move east across IL through the late afternoon and into IN-OH
tonight. An associated speed maximum at 700 mb will intensify and
overspread IL (40-50 kt) east into the southern Great Lakes while a
pronounced strengthening of 850-mb flow (50 kt) occurs during the
21-03z period. Cold mid-level temperatures (-18 deg C at 500 mb)
will act to offset initially meager moisture. Model guidance varies
considerably regarding moisture quality with ample spread amongst
different model cores/PBL schemes. However, it seems a narrow
corridor of lower to mid 50s surface dewpoints will extend
east-northeast from the lower MO Valley into the southern Great
Lakes by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show weak to
moderate buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE). Morning model guidance
shows widely scattered to scattered storms developing within the
warm conveyor during peak heating as convective inhibition erodes.
Have expanded the Slight Risk farther east into this region to
account for a hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. Uncertainty
remains regarding quality of boundary-layer moisture across the
northern third of IN into northwest OH where hodographs become
enlarged later this afternoon into the early evening. Will
re-evaluate the tornado risk for the 20 UTC outlook if in fact
moisture quality seems sufficient for a focused, short-duration
tornado risk across the aforementioned corridor.
...Eastern KS into the Mid MS Valley...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon along a
cold forecast to extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large to very large hail is
the primary risk.
...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A dryline will extend from central KS south-southwestward into
northwest TX by mid afternoon as a surface low evolves near the TX
Panhandle/OK/KS border region. Strong diurnal heating will likely
erode most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep
lapse rates contribute to moderate buoyancy along the dryline.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on the dryline from central KS
into northwest TX during the 22-02 UTC period. Veering and
strengthening flow with height beneath 100-kt westerly 200-mb flow
will support supercells. Isolated large to very large hail will be
the primary risk with the stronger storms, although severe gusts are
also possible.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
INTO ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.
...Synopsis...
A large positive-tilt upper trough will extend from upper Great
Lakes into the Southwest, with a broad zone of strong mid to high
levels southwesterlies extending from the southern Plains across the
lower to middle MS and TN Valleys. Gradual cooling aloft will occur
through the period as this upper trough proceeds gradually east. At
the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley into
central TX during the day, and this front will surge south overnight
into the southeastern states and southern TX.
...Eastern TX into the TN Valley...
A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the cold front, with 70s F
dewpoints from TX into AL. Early day storms are likely in the warm
advection regime over parts of KY and TN, aided by southwest 850 mb
winds around 40 kt. This may temporarily stabilize these northern
areas before destabilization occurs later in the day. The strongest
heating will occur from TX into MS/AL, with MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg.
The greatest risk area will extend from the Sabine River into MS and
northern AL late in the day, perhaps near 00Z, and into the early
evening, as storms finally break the capping inversion after a full
days heating. Deep-layer shear will be oriented mostly parallel to
the front, and low-level winds will be a bit veered with marginal
SRH values. Still, supercells may develop owing to strong effective
shear, with steep lapse rates aloft supporting hail. Damaging winds
may become an issue as storms possibly merge with bowing structures.
For northern areas from TN into KY, the risk will depend on air mass
recovery in the wake of any early day activity. Conditionally,
low-level shear may be stronger in this region, with an isolated
tornado or hail risk.
..Jewell.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
INTO ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.
...Synopsis...
A large positive-tilt upper trough will extend from upper Great
Lakes into the Southwest, with a broad zone of strong mid to high
levels southwesterlies extending from the southern Plains across the
lower to middle MS and TN Valleys. Gradual cooling aloft will occur
through the period as this upper trough proceeds gradually east. At
the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley into
central TX during the day, and this front will surge south overnight
into the southeastern states and southern TX.
...Eastern TX into the TN Valley...
A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the cold front, with 70s F
dewpoints from TX into AL. Early day storms are likely in the warm
advection regime over parts of KY and TN, aided by southwest 850 mb
winds around 40 kt. This may temporarily stabilize these northern
areas before destabilization occurs later in the day. The strongest
heating will occur from TX into MS/AL, with MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg.
The greatest risk area will extend from the Sabine River into MS and
northern AL late in the day, perhaps near 00Z, and into the early
evening, as storms finally break the capping inversion after a full
days heating. Deep-layer shear will be oriented mostly parallel to
the front, and low-level winds will be a bit veered with marginal
SRH values. Still, supercells may develop owing to strong effective
shear, with steep lapse rates aloft supporting hail. Damaging winds
may become an issue as storms possibly merge with bowing structures.
For northern areas from TN into KY, the risk will depend on air mass
recovery in the wake of any early day activity. Conditionally,
low-level shear may be stronger in this region, with an isolated
tornado or hail risk.
..Jewell.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Flow aloft will increase over much of the southern US Tuesday as the
southern stream upper low merges with the second trough over the
northern and central US. As the upper-level troughs deepen, a
surface low over OK will move southward ahead of a surging cold
front over the Plains, while gusty winds are expected over parts of
the eastern US.
...West TX...
The cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Tuesday,
pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into Central/West
Texas. South of the front, westerly winds of 10-20 mph are expected
along with RH below 25%. This could support some localized
fire-weather concerns. However, recent plentiful rainfall has
tempered marginal fuels such that widespread fire-weather conditions
appear unlikely. Additional precipitation and cooler temperatures
north of the front should limit fire-weather potential over the
central US.
...Mid Atlantic...
As the upper trough over the central US consolidates, another day of
gusty southerly winds is likely over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Warm
daytime temperatures and minimal moisture ahead of a cold front
could support localized fire-weather conditions over parts of the
Carolinas and VA. However, fuels remain limited and any fire-weather
conditions should be short lived, precluding highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
Flow aloft will increase over much of the southern US Tuesday as the
southern stream upper low merges with the second trough over the
northern and central US. As the upper-level troughs deepen, a
surface low over OK will move southward ahead of a surging cold
front over the Plains, while gusty winds are expected over parts of
the eastern US.
...West TX...
The cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Tuesday,
pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into Central/West
Texas. South of the front, westerly winds of 10-20 mph are expected
along with RH below 25%. This could support some localized
fire-weather concerns. However, recent plentiful rainfall has
tempered marginal fuels such that widespread fire-weather conditions
appear unlikely. Additional precipitation and cooler temperatures
north of the front should limit fire-weather potential over the
central US.
...Mid Atlantic...
As the upper trough over the central US consolidates, another day of
gusty southerly winds is likely over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Warm
daytime temperatures and minimal moisture ahead of a cold front
could support localized fire-weather conditions over parts of the
Carolinas and VA. However, fuels remain limited and any fire-weather
conditions should be short lived, precluding highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main
threat centered over Arkansas. Some storms may produce large hail,
damaging gusts or a couple tornadoes. Additional strong storms are
possible across parts of the Northeast.
...Synopsis...
A weakening upper low will move from Ontario into Quebec with a
leading speed max moving quickly out of the Great Lakes region.
Behind this system, high pressure will move southward into the
northern Rockies and Plains. The associated cold front will move
across the lower Great Lakes during the day, extending southwestward
across the Ozarks and into eastern OK where a surface low is
forecast.
Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough will exist over the
southwestern states, with moderate to strong west/southwest flow
aloft expanding across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley.
Minimal height rises are forecast across this region, with the warm
advection regime aiding northward transport of low-level moisture
toward the Ozarks.
...Northeast TX into western TN...
A low pressure trough is forecast to develop generally from northern
TX into eastern OK and western AR during the afternoon, with the
main synoptic boundary slowing over northern AR. Models indicate
early day storms are likely over southeast MO, northeast AR and into
western KY and TN, dissipating by midday. This activity may
reinforce the effective frontal position into AR, where air mass
recovery will occur.
By late afternoon, scattered supercells are expected to form near
the surface trough from AR into northeast TX. Given robust moisture
with upper 60s F dewpoints, 60+ kt deep layer shear and effective
SRH maximized over AR, tornadoes will also be possible. The
combination of a capping inversion over much of the area, forced
cells timed with peak heating, and a potential downstream
outflow/enhanced zone of SRH, a strong tornado is conditionally
possible.
...NY into ME...
Strong heating ahead of the cold front and a plume of 50s F
dewpoints will lead to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE during the day, beneath
midlevel southwesterlies over 50 kt. Storms are forecast to develop
after 18Z from western into northern NY, with storms moving rapidly
northeastward across VT/NH and into ME. Forecast soundings indicate
40-50 kt deep-layer mean winds, which in combination with a mixed
boundary layer should support cells as well as bowing structures
capable of damaging gusts. The strongest cells may contain hail as
well. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out given 150-200+ m2/s2
effective SRH depicted across northern areas, though veering
low-level flow and/or deepening mixed layers may mitigate that
potential somewhat.
..Jewell.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main
threat centered over Arkansas. Some storms may produce large hail,
damaging gusts or a couple tornadoes. Additional strong storms are
possible across parts of the Northeast.
...Synopsis...
A weakening upper low will move from Ontario into Quebec with a
leading speed max moving quickly out of the Great Lakes region.
Behind this system, high pressure will move southward into the
northern Rockies and Plains. The associated cold front will move
across the lower Great Lakes during the day, extending southwestward
across the Ozarks and into eastern OK where a surface low is
forecast.
Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough will exist over the
southwestern states, with moderate to strong west/southwest flow
aloft expanding across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley.
Minimal height rises are forecast across this region, with the warm
advection regime aiding northward transport of low-level moisture
toward the Ozarks.
...Northeast TX into western TN...
A low pressure trough is forecast to develop generally from northern
TX into eastern OK and western AR during the afternoon, with the
main synoptic boundary slowing over northern AR. Models indicate
early day storms are likely over southeast MO, northeast AR and into
western KY and TN, dissipating by midday. This activity may
reinforce the effective frontal position into AR, where air mass
recovery will occur.
By late afternoon, scattered supercells are expected to form near
the surface trough from AR into northeast TX. Given robust moisture
with upper 60s F dewpoints, 60+ kt deep layer shear and effective
SRH maximized over AR, tornadoes will also be possible. The
combination of a capping inversion over much of the area, forced
cells timed with peak heating, and a potential downstream
outflow/enhanced zone of SRH, a strong tornado is conditionally
possible.
...NY into ME...
Strong heating ahead of the cold front and a plume of 50s F
dewpoints will lead to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE during the day, beneath
midlevel southwesterlies over 50 kt. Storms are forecast to develop
after 18Z from western into northern NY, with storms moving rapidly
northeastward across VT/NH and into ME. Forecast soundings indicate
40-50 kt deep-layer mean winds, which in combination with a mixed
boundary layer should support cells as well as bowing structures
capable of damaging gusts. The strongest cells may contain hail as
well. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out given 150-200+ m2/s2
effective SRH depicted across northern areas, though veering
low-level flow and/or deepening mixed layers may mitigate that
potential somewhat.
..Jewell.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the Elevated risk area. Current satellite
imagery portrays high cloud cover overspreading much of the southern
Plains and portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Increasing cloud cover throughout the day is expected to deter
deeper mixing, maintaining marginal RH across the uppermost High
Plains. However, RH is still anticipated to remain elevated to near
critical this afternoon across portions of the TX Panhandle into
western OK where current surface observations depict 15-30 percent
values steadily decreasing.
Presently, a cold front is progressing across northern NE with
trailing northerly sustained winds of 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35
mph. Model soundings depict a dry sub-cloud layer and elevated
instability ahead of the approaching cold front, enhancing the
possibility for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across
southern NE, western KS and eastern CO. Recent rainfall, a slight
transition to green up, and expected precipitation overnight may
alleviate broader fire concerns should any ignitions occur. However,
areas where fuels remain dry, a west-northerly wind shift with
sustained 15-20 mph winds through the overnight hours could
temporarily exacerbate fire weather conditions before appreciable
rainfall arrives.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
A cut off low over the Southwest is expected to move eastward as it
merges with a strengthening subtropical jet stream south of a second
upper trough over the northern US and southern Canada. Enhanced
westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over
the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy
conditions over parts of the southern Plains with elevated
fire-weather conditions likely.
...Southern Plains...
Beneath the southern stream upper low, a lee cyclone will deepen
over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Trailing the low, a
developing dryline will serve as the eastern terminus of dry
westerly flow across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles.
Warm temperatures with westerly winds of 15-25 mph and 15-20 percent
RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels across TX/OK. This
should support several hours of elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. Some uncertainty remains on the exact
dryline positioning later this afternoon. Isolated convection is
also possible suggesting some precipitation may occur on the eastern
edge of the Elevated probabilities.
...Northern Plains/Midwest...
Gusty post-frontal winds are likely today across the northern Plains
and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud
cover will likely keep RH minimums above 35%. Still, some pockets of
drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in
pockets of supportive fuels given stronger northwest wind gusts of
20-30 mph.
...Mid Atlantic...
Gusty southerly winds and a drier than normal air mass are likely to
develop this afternoon over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Piedmont.
A strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the deepening upper low
over southern Canada could support gusts of 10-15 mph. While RH will
be below 40%, area fuels remains rather limited owing to recent
precipitation. This should preclude broader fire-weather concerns,
though some localized risk remains possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...Morning Update...
No changes were made to the Elevated risk area. Current satellite
imagery portrays high cloud cover overspreading much of the southern
Plains and portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Increasing cloud cover throughout the day is expected to deter
deeper mixing, maintaining marginal RH across the uppermost High
Plains. However, RH is still anticipated to remain elevated to near
critical this afternoon across portions of the TX Panhandle into
western OK where current surface observations depict 15-30 percent
values steadily decreasing.
Presently, a cold front is progressing across northern NE with
trailing northerly sustained winds of 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35
mph. Model soundings depict a dry sub-cloud layer and elevated
instability ahead of the approaching cold front, enhancing the
possibility for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across
southern NE, western KS and eastern CO. Recent rainfall, a slight
transition to green up, and expected precipitation overnight may
alleviate broader fire concerns should any ignitions occur. However,
areas where fuels remain dry, a west-northerly wind shift with
sustained 15-20 mph winds through the overnight hours could
temporarily exacerbate fire weather conditions before appreciable
rainfall arrives.
See the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/04/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026/
...Synopsis...
A cut off low over the Southwest is expected to move eastward as it
merges with a strengthening subtropical jet stream south of a second
upper trough over the northern US and southern Canada. Enhanced
westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over
the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy
conditions over parts of the southern Plains with elevated
fire-weather conditions likely.
...Southern Plains...
Beneath the southern stream upper low, a lee cyclone will deepen
over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Trailing the low, a
developing dryline will serve as the eastern terminus of dry
westerly flow across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles.
Warm temperatures with westerly winds of 15-25 mph and 15-20 percent
RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels across TX/OK. This
should support several hours of elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. Some uncertainty remains on the exact
dryline positioning later this afternoon. Isolated convection is
also possible suggesting some precipitation may occur on the eastern
edge of the Elevated probabilities.
...Northern Plains/Midwest...
Gusty post-frontal winds are likely today across the northern Plains
and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud
cover will likely keep RH minimums above 35%. Still, some pockets of
drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in
pockets of supportive fuels given stronger northwest wind gusts of
20-30 mph.
...Mid Atlantic...
Gusty southerly winds and a drier than normal air mass are likely to
develop this afternoon over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Piedmont.
A strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the deepening upper low
over southern Canada could support gusts of 10-15 mph. While RH will
be below 40%, area fuels remains rather limited owing to recent
precipitation. This should preclude broader fire-weather concerns,
though some localized risk remains possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts are possible across portions of the Midwest this
afternoon into tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with
large to very large hail extends into portions of the
central/southern Plains.
...IL into the southern Great Lakes...
A mid-level vorticity maximum over the lower MO Valley is forecast
to move east across IL through the late afternoon and into IN-OH
tonight. An associated speed maximum at 700 mb will intensify and
overspread IL (40-50 kt) east into the southern Great Lakes while a
pronounced strengthening of 850-mb flow (50 kt) occurs during the
21-03z period. Cold mid-level temperatures (-18 deg C at 500 mb)
will act to offset initially meager moisture. Model guidance varies
considerably regarding moisture quality with ample spread amongst
different model cores/PBL schemes. However, it seems a narrow
corridor of lower to mid 50s surface dewpoints will extend
east-northeast from the lower MO Valley into the southern Great
Lakes by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show weak to
moderate buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE). Morning model guidance
shows widely scattered to scattered storms developing within the
warm conveyor during peak heating as convective inhibition erodes.
Have expanded the Slight Risk farther east into this region to
account for a hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. Uncertainty
remains regarding quality of boundary-layer moisture across the
northern third of IN into northwest OH where hodographs become
enlarged later this afternoon into the early evening. Will
re-evaluate the tornado risk for the 20 UTC outlook if in fact
moisture quality seems sufficient for a focused, short-duration
tornado risk across the aforementioned corridor.
...Eastern KS into the Mid MS Valley...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon along a
cold forecast to extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large to very large hail is
the primary risk.
...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A dryline will extend from central KS south-southwestward into
northwest TX by mid afternoon as a surface low evolves near the TX
Panhandle/OK/KS border region. Strong diurnal heating will likely
erode most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep
lapse rates contribute to moderate buoyancy along the dryline.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on the dryline from central KS
into northwest TX during the 22-02 UTC period. Veering and
strengthening flow with height beneath 100-kt westerly 200-mb flow
will support supercells. Isolated large to very large hail will be
the primary risk with the stronger storms, although severe gusts are
also possible.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts are possible across portions of the Midwest this
afternoon into tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with
large to very large hail extends into portions of the
central/southern Plains.
...IL into the southern Great Lakes...
A mid-level vorticity maximum over the lower MO Valley is forecast
to move east across IL through the late afternoon and into IN-OH
tonight. An associated speed maximum at 700 mb will intensify and
overspread IL (40-50 kt) east into the southern Great Lakes while a
pronounced strengthening of 850-mb flow (50 kt) occurs during the
21-03z period. Cold mid-level temperatures (-18 deg C at 500 mb)
will act to offset initially meager moisture. Model guidance varies
considerably regarding moisture quality with ample spread amongst
different model cores/PBL schemes. However, it seems a narrow
corridor of lower to mid 50s surface dewpoints will extend
east-northeast from the lower MO Valley into the southern Great
Lakes by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show weak to
moderate buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE). Morning model guidance
shows widely scattered to scattered storms developing within the
warm conveyor during peak heating as convective inhibition erodes.
Have expanded the Slight Risk farther east into this region to
account for a hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. Uncertainty
remains regarding quality of boundary-layer moisture across the
northern third of IN into northwest OH where hodographs become
enlarged later this afternoon into the early evening. Will
re-evaluate the tornado risk for the 20 UTC outlook if in fact
moisture quality seems sufficient for a focused, short-duration
tornado risk across the aforementioned corridor.
...Eastern KS into the Mid MS Valley...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon along a
cold forecast to extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large to very large hail is
the primary risk.
...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A dryline will extend from central KS south-southwestward into
northwest TX by mid afternoon as a surface low evolves near the TX
Panhandle/OK/KS border region. Strong diurnal heating will likely
erode most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep
lapse rates contribute to moderate buoyancy along the dryline.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on the dryline from central KS
into northwest TX during the 22-02 UTC period. Veering and
strengthening flow with height beneath 100-kt westerly 200-mb flow
will support supercells. Isolated large to very large hail will be
the primary risk with the stronger storms, although severe gusts are
also possible.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts are possible across portions of the Midwest this
afternoon into tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with
large to very large hail extends into portions of the
central/southern Plains.
...IL into the southern Great Lakes...
A mid-level vorticity maximum over the lower MO Valley is forecast
to move east across IL through the late afternoon and into IN-OH
tonight. An associated speed maximum at 700 mb will intensify and
overspread IL (40-50 kt) east into the southern Great Lakes while a
pronounced strengthening of 850-mb flow (50 kt) occurs during the
21-03z period. Cold mid-level temperatures (-18 deg C at 500 mb)
will act to offset initially meager moisture. Model guidance varies
considerably regarding moisture quality with ample spread amongst
different model cores/PBL schemes. However, it seems a narrow
corridor of lower to mid 50s surface dewpoints will extend
east-northeast from the lower MO Valley into the southern Great
Lakes by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show weak to
moderate buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE). Morning model guidance
shows widely scattered to scattered storms developing within the
warm conveyor during peak heating as convective inhibition erodes.
Have expanded the Slight Risk farther east into this region to
account for a hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. Uncertainty
remains regarding quality of boundary-layer moisture across the
northern third of IN into northwest OH where hodographs become
enlarged later this afternoon into the early evening. Will
re-evaluate the tornado risk for the 20 UTC outlook if in fact
moisture quality seems sufficient for a focused, short-duration
tornado risk across the aforementioned corridor.
...Eastern KS into the Mid MS Valley...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon along a
cold forecast to extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large to very large hail is
the primary risk.
...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A dryline will extend from central KS south-southwestward into
northwest TX by mid afternoon as a surface low evolves near the TX
Panhandle/OK/KS border region. Strong diurnal heating will likely
erode most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep
lapse rates contribute to moderate buoyancy along the dryline.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on the dryline from central KS
into northwest TX during the 22-02 UTC period. Veering and
strengthening flow with height beneath 100-kt westerly 200-mb flow
will support supercells. Isolated large to very large hail will be
the primary risk with the stronger storms, although severe gusts are
also possible.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible across portions of the Midwest this afternoon into
tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very
large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a large upper low off the
central CA coast, with an extensive fetch of southwesterly flow
aloft from the base of this low through northern Mexico and the
Southwest States into the southern High Plains. A deep cyclone
exists over central Canada as well. Between these two primary
features, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving
southeastward across NE.
Several shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate around the Canadian
cyclone, contributing to some deepening and eastward progression. An
associated surface low, currently over northwestern Ontario, will
move eastward as well. The deepening of the upper trough across the
northern Plains and progression of the surface low will force a cold
front southward/southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Middle MO
Valley by this evening, and through the central Plains, and Lower MO
and Mid MS Valleys by early tomorrow. Increasing low-level moisture
is anticipated ahead of this cold front, supporting the potential
for thunderstorms as this front interacts with this moisture and
associated buoyancy.
...Eastern KS into Mid MS Valley and Lower MI...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon, both
along the front, which should extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA, and within the warm-air advection regime ahead
of the front. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large hail is the primary
risk.
Any thunderstorms that develop within the warm-air advection regime
ahead of the front during the afternoon and early evening should
interact with greater buoyancy (particularly from northeast IL,
northern IL and southern Lower MI where less boundary-layer mixing
could result in slightly higher dewpoints) and moderate vertical
shear. A few stronger, more organized storms are possible in this
area, although weaker upper flow could limit discreteness and result
in a trend towards a more clustered storm mode.
...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A sharp dryline is expected to develop from central KS
south-southwestward into northwest TX. Given the veering surface
winds, convergence along the dryline will likely be modest
throughout much of the afternoon. However, some backing is possible
during the evening as a surface low moves eastward across southwest
KS towards northwest OK. Strong diurnal heating will likely erode
most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep lapse
rates contribute to moderate buoyancy. These factors could be enough
to force isolated initiation on the dryline from central KS into
northwest TX. Upper-level flow will be strengthening across the
region throughout the period, and any storms that do form will have
ample deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large to very large
hail would be the primary risk early in the convective cycle, with
dry mid-levels also supporting strong downdrafts as storms begin to
weaken and collapse.
..Mosier/Dean.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible across portions of the Midwest this afternoon into
tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very
large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a large upper low off the
central CA coast, with an extensive fetch of southwesterly flow
aloft from the base of this low through northern Mexico and the
Southwest States into the southern High Plains. A deep cyclone
exists over central Canada as well. Between these two primary
features, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving
southeastward across NE.
Several shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate around the Canadian
cyclone, contributing to some deepening and eastward progression. An
associated surface low, currently over northwestern Ontario, will
move eastward as well. The deepening of the upper trough across the
northern Plains and progression of the surface low will force a cold
front southward/southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Middle MO
Valley by this evening, and through the central Plains, and Lower MO
and Mid MS Valleys by early tomorrow. Increasing low-level moisture
is anticipated ahead of this cold front, supporting the potential
for thunderstorms as this front interacts with this moisture and
associated buoyancy.
...Eastern KS into Mid MS Valley and Lower MI...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon, both
along the front, which should extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA, and within the warm-air advection regime ahead
of the front. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large hail is the primary
risk.
Any thunderstorms that develop within the warm-air advection regime
ahead of the front during the afternoon and early evening should
interact with greater buoyancy (particularly from northeast IL,
northern IL and southern Lower MI where less boundary-layer mixing
could result in slightly higher dewpoints) and moderate vertical
shear. A few stronger, more organized storms are possible in this
area, although weaker upper flow could limit discreteness and result
in a trend towards a more clustered storm mode.
...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A sharp dryline is expected to develop from central KS
south-southwestward into northwest TX. Given the veering surface
winds, convergence along the dryline will likely be modest
throughout much of the afternoon. However, some backing is possible
during the evening as a surface low moves eastward across southwest
KS towards northwest OK. Strong diurnal heating will likely erode
most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep lapse
rates contribute to moderate buoyancy. These factors could be enough
to force isolated initiation on the dryline from central KS into
northwest TX. Upper-level flow will be strengthening across the
region throughout the period, and any storms that do form will have
ample deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large to very large
hail would be the primary risk early in the convective cycle, with
dry mid-levels also supporting strong downdrafts as storms begin to
weaken and collapse.
..Mosier/Dean.. 05/04/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the
eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day
4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern
Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front
should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over
northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place
ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could
develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given
deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of
showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting
northeast away from better low-level moisture.
Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer
moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and
surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak
shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and
southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf
moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could
bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX
and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential
is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another
period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from
the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of
severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to
the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features
varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low
predictability.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Large-scale upper troughing is expected to envelop much of the
eastern half of the CONUS for most of the forecast period. On Day
4/Thu, a surface cold front is expected to extend from the southern
Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf coast and southern TX. The front
should largely move offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and over
northern FL by early Day 5/Fri. A moist airmass will be in place
ahead of the front and some severe thunderstorm potential could
develop. However, 15 percent or greater coverage is uncertain given
deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary, cloud cover and areas of
showers/thunderstorms early Thursday, and large-scale ascent lifting
northeast away from better low-level moisture.
Severe potential appears low Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Boundary layer
moisture will be limited due to the prior cold frontal passage and
surface high pressure in its wake. Some guidance suggests a weak
shortwave trough will migrate across the southern Rockies and
southern Plains on Friday, resulting in lee troughing and some Gulf
moisture return across TX Friday night into Saturday. This could
bring an increasing chance for thunderstorms across portions for TX
and perhaps the Lower MS Valley on Saturday, though severe potential
is uncertain given large model spread. By early next week, another
period of moisture return ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting from
the Rockies into the Plains/Midwest could bring another bout of
severe potential ahead of a cold front from the southern Plains to
the Southeast. However, timing and intensity of these features
varies across control, AI, and ensemble guidance, resulting in low
predictability.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Flow aloft will increase over much of the southern US Tuesday as the
southern stream upper low merges with the second trough over the
northern and central US. As the upper-level troughs deepen, a
surface low over OK will move southward ahead of a surging cold
front over the Plains, while gusty winds are expected over parts of
the eastern US.
...West TX...
The cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Tuesday,
pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into Central/West
Texas. South of the front, westerly winds of 10-20 mph are expected
along with RH below 25%. This could support some localized
fire-weather concerns. However, recent plentiful rainfall has
tempered marginal fuels such that widespread fire-weather conditions
appear unlikely. Additional precipitation and cooler temperatures
north of the front should limit fire-weather potential over the
central US.
...Mid Atlantic...
As the upper trough over the central US consolidates, another day of
gusty southerly winds is likely over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Warm
daytime temperatures and minimal moisture ahead of a cold front
could support localized fire-weather conditions over parts of the
Carolinas and VA. However, fuels remain limited and any fire-weather
conditions should be short lived, precluding highlights.
..Lyons.. 05/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis...
A cut off low over the Southwest is expected to move eastward as it
merges with a strengthening subtropical jet stream south of a second
upper trough over the northern US and southern Canada. Enhanced
westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over
the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy
conditions over parts of the southern Plains with elevated
fire-weather conditions likely.
...Southern Plains...
Beneath the southern stream upper low, a lee cyclone will deepen
over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Trailing the low, a
developing dryline will serve as the eastern terminus of dry
westerly flow across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles.
Warm temperatures with westerly winds of 15-25 mph and 15-20 percent
RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels across TX/OK. This
should support several hours of elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. Some uncertainty remains on the exact
dryline positioning later this afternoon. Isolated convection is
also possible suggesting some precipitation may occur on the eastern
edge of the Elevated probabilities.
...Northern Plains/Midwest...
Gusty post-frontal winds are likely today across the northern Plains
and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud
cover will likely keep RH minimums above 35%. Still, some pockets of
drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in
pockets of supportive fuels given stronger northwest wind gusts of
20-30 mph.
...Mid Atlantic...
Gusty southerly winds and a drier than normal air mass are likely to
develop this afternoon over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Piedmont.
A strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the deepening upper low
over southern Canada could support gusts of 10-15 mph. While RH will
be below 40%, area fuels remains rather limited owing to recent
precipitation. This should preclude broader fire-weather concerns,
though some localized risk remains possible.
..Lyons.. 05/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.
...Texas to the Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern
Rockies to the southern Plains on Wednesday. Strong southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains into much of the
southern and eastern U.S. ahead of this feature. At the surface, a
cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley southwestward to
southern AR Wednesday morning, with the western extent of the front
sloped across northeast to southwest TX. Ahead of the front, rich
Gulf moisture will be in place with dewpoints generally in the mid
60s to near 70 across TX into the Lower MS Valley, decreasing with
northeast extent. This will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization ahead of the front from parts of TX into MS where
MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg is possible. Instability will be
somewhat less with northeast extent across the TN Valley.
Storm mode is somewhat uncertain Wednesday afternoon. If discrete
cells can develop, steep lapse rates, favorable thermodynamic,
elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes
suggest supercells with an all-hazards risk will be possible.
However, given deep layer flow parallel to the surface front and a
southward progressing front, convection may tend to become linear
quickly. This would increase damaging wind potential. Given
uncertainty in storm mode, declined introducing a CIG 1 area for
hail. In general, convection should develop during the afternoon and
spread east/southeast with time through the overnight hours, with an
accompany severe risk.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
Read more
