Storm Prediction Center

WW 378 SEVERE TSTM GA NC TN 222130Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Georgia Far Western North Carolina Southeast Tennessee * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 530 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into the Watch area late this afternoon and into the evening. Strong to severe gusts (55 to 65 mph) occurring with the more intense downdrafts will be capable of wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of Chattanooga TN to 80 miles east of Chattanooga TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW 376...WW 377... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 376 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257 ..MOORE..06/22/26 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-011-017-025-075-087-222140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-222140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX SDC033-047-081-103-222140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 376 SEVERE TSTM MT NE SD WY 221835Z - 230200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Nebraska Panhandle Southwest South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe/supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over parts of southeast Montana and eastern Wyoming - spreading southeastward through the evening. Parameters appear quite favorable for large hail in the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Broadus MT to 40 miles west of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail and a tornado or two. ...20z Update Central High Plains... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong to severe storms, including supercells, are developing across parts of WY and CO and should spread east/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and the discrete mode should favor significant severe hail with these storms into this evening. A tornado or two is also possible, focused mostly along the Cheyenne Ridge where stronger low-level shear is being observed. ...Mid Atlantic... Several rounds of storms remain likely this afternoon and evening beneath the strong mid-level zonal flow aloft. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat with scattered but mostly cellular storms through this evening. A tornado or two remains possible. This is most likely near the warm front across northern NJ and southern Long Island where stronger and backed low-level flow is supporting 100-150 0-1km SRH. Some guidance shows an increase in storm clustering and stronger outflow gusts from northern VA into northern MD/DE and southern PA/NJ this evening. Should this occur, a locally more favorable corridor of damaging winds could develop. However, this remains very uncertain given the more scattered and cellular convection observed so far. ...TX/OK... Some mode signal exists for isolated convective development this afternoon along the trailing outflow boundary across north TX from the morning MCS. Very large buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates could support hail with these storms. However, the lack of broader large-scale ascent suggests more isolated coverage through this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026/ ...Mid Atlantic... Relatively fast zonal flow is present today from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, with a shortwave trough evident over OH/MI. As this feature tracks eastward, it will push a surface cold front southward across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic region. Considerable clouds are present ahead of the front from KY/WV into VA/PA/NJ, limiting destabilization and confidence in the details of where clusters of storms may form later today. However, given the relatively strong winds aloft and dewpoints in the 60s, it would seem likely that scattered strong to severe storms will occur, capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. ...TN/MS/AL/GA... The remnants of a severe overnight MCS are over AR/west TN/northern MS. This system has considerable mesoscale organization with an MCV noted over eastern AR. A very moist and unstable air mass is in place ahead of this system over northern MS/AL, where heating into the mid 80s will foster thunderstorm intensification this afternoon. Damaging winds are the main concern with these storms, but a low-level jet feature associated with the MCV could result in a few supercell structures and the risk of a tornado or two. Activity will track into north GA this evening. Refer to MD #1252 for further details. ...Central High Plains... Similar to yesterday, low-clouds are slowly burning off across the High Plains of eastern CO and western SD/NE/KS, where moderate CAPE values will develop by mid-afternoon. Easterly/upslope flow will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern WY and southward along the DCVZ in CO. These storms will track into the CAPE axis, where favorable deep-layer shear will promote supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Read more

MD 1255 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1255 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Areas affected...East-central to southeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221840Z - 222045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely along the Front Range from central to southern Colorado in the next 1-2 hours. Watch issuance is likely as storms develop and spread east/southeast. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery depicts growing cumulus from the Denver area southward along the Front Range and into the Raton Mesa within a weak upslope flow regime. This comes as temperatures begin to warm into the low to mid 80s, which latest CAM guidance suggests is required to erode mixed-layer inhibition and support convective initiation. Based on these satellite and temperature trends, deep convective initiation appears probable within the next 1-2 hours. Initially high-based convection will quickly spread east/southeast given the 30-40 knot west/northwest flow regime aloft. Steady intensification with eastward extent is expected as storms migrate into the axis of rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s) in place along the eastern Plains. Additionally, elongated hodographs featuring 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear analyzed in recent mesoanalyses/forecast soundings (and confirmed by regional VWPs) will promote splitting supercells capable of large to very large hail (possibly as high as 2-3 inches) as well as strong outflow winds. Watch issuance will be needed this afternoon as initiation becomes more imminent and storms begin to mature. ..Moore/Hart.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 36970280 37000336 37190395 37440450 37650481 37900503 38230522 38670542 39010540 39270522 39400488 39420443 39420397 39310341 39230321 38930273 38590235 38220211 37820201 37390201 37190207 37070217 36970280 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 1256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN TN...NORTHERN GA...AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Areas affected...eastern TN...northern GA...and the western Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221937Z - 222130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase through late afternoon. Sporadic strong wind gusts will be possible. A watch may be needed at some point, but a more organized severe risk is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms over northern AL and Middle TN will continue to progress generally east/northeast through the remainder of the afternoon. Most of the stronger midlevel flow across the region is in the wake of an MCV/outflow boundary extending from Middle TN into northwest AL, leaving generally weak vertical shear across northern GA/eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Nevertheless, a warm and moist airmass resides across the area, resulting in moderate instability. Transient multicells/clusters may produce sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts. If a more organized cluster/bowing complex can develop upstream closer to the MCV and move into this area late this afternoon/early evening, some increased risk for damaging winds may develop. A more organized severe risk and the need for a severe thunderstorm watch is uncertain. Trends will be monitored. ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 35458606 36528399 36468212 35778200 34938209 34258265 33928379 33758510 34048546 34668606 35038630 35458606 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Southern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and Four Corners... Dry southwesterly to westerly flow under a building ridge aloft will bring a broad fire weather concern to portions of the Southwest, southern Great Basin and CO Plateau Tuesday. Poor overnight recoveries through tonight will precede daytime minimum RH of 5-15% across this region. The very low daytime RH, sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph and critically dry fuels still supports this broad fire weather threat. Elevated highlights have been expanded northward into east-central NV as well as the CO Western Slope and eastern UT based on latest forecast guidance and increasingly receptive fuels. ...Northern Arizona and Southern Utah... A corridor of enhanced westerly winds up to 20 mph amid RH as low as 10% will yield a period of critical fire weather conditions for parts of northern AZ into southern UT. The highlighted area was shifted slightly eastward based on latest model guidance, with lower probabilities of reaching critical fire weather criteria across the AZ Strip. ..Williams.. 06/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the Interior West while building into the Northern Plains tomorrow (Tuesday). An embedded mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing intensification over Intermountain West. Dry and breezy conditions will result Tuesday afternoon over the southern Great Basin into the Four corners, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH atop fuels receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Southern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and Four Corners... Dry southwesterly to westerly flow under a building ridge aloft will bring a broad fire weather concern to portions of the Southwest, southern Great Basin and CO Plateau Tuesday. Poor overnight recoveries through tonight will precede daytime minimum RH of 5-15% across this region. The very low daytime RH, sustained west-southwest winds of around 15 mph and critically dry fuels still supports this broad fire weather threat. Elevated highlights have been expanded northward into east-central NV as well as the CO Western Slope and eastern UT based on latest forecast guidance and increasingly receptive fuels. ...Northern Arizona and Southern Utah... A corridor of enhanced westerly winds up to 20 mph amid RH as low as 10% will yield a period of critical fire weather conditions for parts of northern AZ into southern UT. The highlighted area was shifted slightly eastward based on latest model guidance, with lower probabilities of reaching critical fire weather criteria across the AZ Strip. ..Williams.. 06/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the Interior West while building into the Northern Plains tomorrow (Tuesday). An embedded mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing intensification over Intermountain West. Dry and breezy conditions will result Tuesday afternoon over the southern Great Basin into the Four corners, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH atop fuels receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough is forecast to move from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes ahead of a sheared vorticity maximum translating from the northern Rockies into the northern and central Plains. Those features will be associated with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from the northern and central High Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to weaken over the upper Midwest, along a cold front advancing through that area. The western extension of that boundary will become increasingly less defined with southwestward extent into the central and southern Plains. ...Central and Southern High Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley... As was the case for the Day 2 (Tuesday and Tuesday night) forecast period, there is considerable spread in 12Z model guidance in the location of any ongoing MCS(s) at 12Z Wednesday. The location of those features will dictate the specific location of any more concentrated damaging-wind risk later Wednesday, especially from the Ozark Plateau into lower MS Valley. There is higher confidence in widely scattered afternoon storm development across the central and perhaps southern High Plains within a low-level, upslope regime. The combination of moderate instability and 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail as the primary hazard. There is some model signal that the afternoon High Plains storms will grow upscale into an MCS across lower elevations of the central Plains Wednesday night with an associated damaging-wind risk. Confidence in that scenario is currently too low to extend the 15% probability contour farther east at this time. ...Upper Midwest... Lingering clouds associated with early-day storms may limit air mass destabilization into afternoon. However, where cloud breaks can occur, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft and modest boundary-layer moisture content will support moderate afternoon instability. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mead.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... A short-wave trough is forecast to move from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes ahead of a sheared vorticity maximum translating from the northern Rockies into the northern and central Plains. Those features will be associated with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from the northern and central High Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to weaken over the upper Midwest, along a cold front advancing through that area. The western extension of that boundary will become increasingly less defined with southwestward extent into the central and southern Plains. ...Central and Southern High Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley... As was the case for the Day 2 (Tuesday and Tuesday night) forecast period, there is considerable spread in 12Z model guidance in the location of any ongoing MCS(s) at 12Z Wednesday. The location of those features will dictate the specific location of any more concentrated damaging-wind risk later Wednesday, especially from the Ozark Plateau into lower MS Valley. There is higher confidence in widely scattered afternoon storm development across the central and perhaps southern High Plains within a low-level, upslope regime. The combination of moderate instability and 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of large to very large hail as the primary hazard. There is some model signal that the afternoon High Plains storms will grow upscale into an MCS across lower elevations of the central Plains Wednesday night with an associated damaging-wind risk. Confidence in that scenario is currently too low to extend the 15% probability contour farther east at this time. ...Upper Midwest... Lingering clouds associated with early-day storms may limit air mass destabilization into afternoon. However, where cloud breaks can occur, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft and modest boundary-layer moisture content will support moderate afternoon instability. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts. ..Mead.. 06/22/2026 Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 377 SEVERE TSTM CO 221930Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over eastern Colorado, in a relatively moist and unstable air mass. Large to very-large hail will be the primary risk with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Akron CO to 35 miles west southwest of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW 376... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0376 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0375 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0375 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0375 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0375 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 375 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA WV CW 221810Z - 230100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Central and Northern Virginia Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop and spread across the watch area through the afternoon, moving offshore after dark. Organized cells and clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Staunton VA to 30 miles southeast of Atlantic City NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1252 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS/AL INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 1252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern and central MS/AL into southern Middle TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221601Z - 221800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase across portions of northern and central Mississippi and Alabama into southern Middle Tennessee into early afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, but a tornado or two also may occur. A watch will likely be needed by early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Airmass destabilization is occurring downstream from an MCV over eastern AR at midday. This MCV should continue moving eastward along a surface boundary sagging across western TN. Thunderstorms are ongoing along outflow from an overnight MCS near the MS River into northern LA. These storms are expected to gradually increase in intensity across MS over the next couple of hours. Filtered heating has allowed temperatures to warm into the 80s amid a very moist boundary layer characterized by mid-70s dewpoints. While midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, MLCAPE should climb to around 1500-2500 J/kg through afternoon. The MCV will also provide enhanced westerly flow in conjunction with a 25-30 kt southwesterly 850 mb low-level jet overspreading the TN Valley vicinity. This will support organized clusters, and perhaps some upscale development into a bowing segment across portions of the MCD area. Interestingly, RAP forecast soundings indicate some drier air above 850 mb amid PW values near 2 inches. This moisture profile amid moderate to strong instability and modestly enhanced west/southwesterly flow suggests damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard with convection through the afternoon. However, some enhancement of low-level SRH may accompany areas near the core of the MCV. As such, a tornado or two also could occur. A watch will likely be needed at some point early this afternoon, but timing remains a bit uncertain. ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32758789 32658860 32708963 32839036 32989062 33259064 33619035 34058996 34658923 34928844 35358682 35358631 35238604 34798586 34238589 33788591 33478612 33158676 32758789 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1253 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221725Z - 221930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours. Scattered damaging wind gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible through evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 19z. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms over the higher terrain of WV and vicinity are gradually increasing in intensity this afternoon as gradual destabilization occurs. Downstream from higher terrain across portions of VA into MD/DE, southern NJ and southeast PA, stronger heating is occurring within areas of mostly clear skies. Higher quality moisture across eastern VA has been streaming northward toward southeast PA/southern NJ and ensuing stronger destabilization is noted. Enhanced westerly flow is apparent in early afternoon mesoanalysis and 12z regional RAOBs. This should allow for sufficient deep layer shear for storm organization. Thunderstorm clusters will pose mainly a risk of damaging wind gusts given steep (greater than 7.5 C/km) 0-3 km lapse rates and PW values around 1.75 inches. Some forecast guidance suggests sufficient clustering/outflow consolidation may occur in the vicinity of northern VA/MD and a forward propagating cluster/bowing segment could develop and track northeast with time toward southeast PA/NJ. This corridor aligns with the corridor of stronger midlevel westerlies, and may pose a relative greater severe risk compared to points further south into southern VA and NC where flow is weaker. If this scenario unfolds, damaging wind potential will increase. Given modest 0-1 km SRH across the region, a tornado or two also could occur, though the damaging wind risk is expected to be the primary hazard into early evening. ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX... GSP...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 40497808 40747686 40807597 40757507 40587476 40047426 39677428 38847474 38197525 37847570 37297702 36447933 36097997 35748149 35858253 36268338 36608350 36928354 37748308 38378233 39148140 40177908 40497808 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1254 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...COLORADO...SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1254 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into adjacent portions of Nebraska...Colorado...South Dakota...and Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221729Z - 221930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely in the next couple of hours across southeast Wyoming. Storms that develop will likely mature into supercells posing a threat for very large hail; watch issuance will likely be needed as convection begins to develop. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a small zone of deepening cumulus within a weak upslope flow regime along the eastern slopes of the Laramie and Big Horn Mountains in Wyoming. Latest forecast guidance suggests that lingering mixed-layer inhibition will be largely eroded as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 70s. With observed temperatures in the vicinity of the deepening cumulus currently in the upper 60s and low 70s, it appears likely that further growth will occur with increasing probability for convective initiation over the next couple of hours - especially as broad-scale ascent ahead of an upstream wave continues to overspread the region. Regional VWPs are sampling 35-45 knot mid-level flow, which should increase through late afternoon as the mid-level disturbance continues to the southeast. This will yield elongated hodographs with effective shear values on the order of 40-50 knots by late afternoon, which will promote splitting supercells capable of producing very large hail (possibly as high as 2.5 to 3 inches based on sounding analogs). Large hail, as well as brief tornado, potential appears highest across southeast WY into northeast CO/western NE where richer low-level moisture will support higher buoyancy and more intense updrafts and some effective SRH is noted in latest RAP mesoanalyses. Trends are being monitored for the onset of more substantial/widespread initiation, and watch issuance will likely be needed once this becomes apparent. ..Moore/Hart.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 41040280 40490278 39840289 39590311 39480349 39450403 39500439 39730463 40170468 40510465 41030475 41240477 41800491 42580541 42900570 43580623 44400676 44930699 45230685 45270612 45120552 44710501 44140455 43370401 42610357 41460294 41040280 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more