Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight. ...Synopsis... A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms grow upscale through the evening. ...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama... Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low confidence in introducing higher probabilities. As the front sags southward, storms will begin to cluster with tendency to grow upscale and an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia. ...Texas... Thunderstorm development is possible further south along the front and dryline into portions of eastern, central, and southwestern Texas. Isolated supercells will be possible with potential for a few instances of severe hail and damaging wind. Overall, coverage is expected to remain more limited given better forcing for ascent will be located to the east. ..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/06/2026 Read more

MD 0648 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Northwest Louisiana...Far Southeast Oklahoma...Southwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 052319Z - 060115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop early this evening across parts of northeast Texas, far southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and an isolated tornado threat will be possible. Weather watch will likely be needed once convective initiation takes place. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from southeast Oklahoma extending southwestward to near the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro and into north-central Texas. Along and ahead of the front, a field of cumulus is evident on visible satellite imagery. Low-level convergence is likely maximized near Fort Worth, where a boundary from the southeast recently merged with the cold front. Short-term model forecasts suggest that cells will initiate near the front early this evening from the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro northeastward into northeast Texas. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is analyzed with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth has 0-6 km shear near 70 knots. The RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This should support supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. The storms may also be associated with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat. ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34649389 34349323 33699305 32999320 32579352 32339410 32239532 32329595 32659625 33069639 33599641 34329614 34719544 34649389 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0184 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0184 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 184 TORNADO AR 052315Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Central Arkansas * Effective this Tuesday night from 615 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a cold front and spread eastward across the watch area this evening. A few supercells are expected, capable of hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south southwest of Fort Smith AR to 30 miles south of Walnut Ridge AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Upper troughing will extend along the eastern U.S. and persist through early next week as an upper-level low over eastern Canada remains anchored. This pattern will encourage unsettled weather and repeated chances for precipitation across portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Broader fire weather concerns may temporarily be dampened for much of the eastern U.S. through the duration of the forecast period, given a widespread transition to green up and expected appreciable precipitation. An upper ridge will prevail across the western U.S., resulting in above normal temperatures and dry conditions to continue for much of the Intermountain West through the forecast period. On Day 3/Thursday, a cold front will extend from the Carolinas to Gulf Coast with increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the front. A deep, dry airmass and 10-15 mph westerly winds atop a drying FL Peninsula fuelscape will enhance fire weather concerns. 40% Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for this threat. On Day 4/Friday, a dry and breezy post frontal environment will overspread the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. West-northwesterly winds of 5-15 mph and marginal RH precludes the introduction of critical probabilities at this time. However, an exceptionally dry fuelscape (90-95th percentile ERCs) susceptible to increased fire spread in terrain-favored areas may promote localized fire weather concerns. Beneath an upper ridge and northwesterly flow aloft, above normal temperatures and a dry airmass will remain over much of the western CONUS. Farther east, periodic breeziness and marginally dry conditions are expected to continue over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the weekend. Localized fire weather concerns may emerge where stronger winds overlap dry fuels. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue May 5 19:50:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon through this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Recent GOES imagery shows gradual clearing across northern TX into northwest LA and western AR with slow warming/moistening noted in surface observations. A stable layer remains evident in visible imagery across western AR, and a recent 18 UTC SHV RAOB sampled a stronger capping inversion at 850 mb compared to what is depicted by latest high-res guidance. This casts some uncertainty on convective coverage across southwest AR; however, trends in time-lagged ensemble guidance and early high-res WoFS solutions continue to show reasonably high confidence in thunderstorm development along and north of the I-40 corridor in AR and downstream into northern MS, middle TN, and northwest AL later tonight. Although storm mode will likely transition to clusters and embedded semi-discrete cells after 06 UTC, some severe threat will likely persist into the early morning hours given adequate buoyancy and ample deep-layer wind shear. The eastern extent of the 5% wind/hail contours have been adjusted accordingly. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and recently issued MCD #646 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026/ ...Northeast TX into the Mid-South... Radar mosaic shows an MCV moving east across far western KY with a band of weak thunderstorms extending south and west across western TN. Convective outflow associated with the showers/thunderstorms extends from east-west near I-40 across AR into eastern OK where it intersects a triple point over central OK. A cold front is draped southwest to northeast along the I-44 corridor from western north TX northeastward into the Ozarks. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud cover from northeast TX northeastward into AR and the lower OH Valley. A plume of richer moisture at the surface is denoted by mid to upper 60s deg F dewpoints protruding north from east-central TX into north TX and southeast OK. Further moistening of low levels via southerly return flow is forecast beneath a capping inversion around 850 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Forth Worth, TX raob. Gradual boundary layer heating will result in surface temperatures warming into the upper 80s over north TX with muted heating farther northeast over AR where persistent cloud cover will inhibit stronger heating. Model guidance shows MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg from northeast AR southwestward into southwest AR, and upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE across north TX by mid-late afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are anticipated. However, thinning clouds near the OK/AR border and the erosion of convective inhibition as convective temperatures are breached over north TX will result in isolated to scattered storms developing during 20-23 UTC period. Initial supercell mode is forecast over north TX with some clustering expected during the evening. The tornado risk over north TX will likely be limited by relatively weak low-level shear but strong mid to high-level flow will promote large to very large hail growth (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Farther northeast, isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop east of the eastward-migrating surface low and near the front by the mid-late afternoon. HRRR time-lagged runs this morning show a few supercells with one more longer track storms moving developing and moving east across central AR in a larger SRH environment. An all hazards severe risk may accompany the stronger storms in AR beginning later this afternoon and possibly persisting through the evening as this activity moves east towards the MS River. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms is expected as moderately strong southwesterly 850 to 700-mb flow is maintained across the Mid South. Damaging gusts and perhaps a lingering tornado risk will possibly spread east tonight before storms weaken late. ...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England... A marginally moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME. Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized storms. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the boundary, with linear structures favored. Damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon through this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Recent GOES imagery shows gradual clearing across northern TX into northwest LA and western AR with slow warming/moistening noted in surface observations. A stable layer remains evident in visible imagery across western AR, and a recent 18 UTC SHV RAOB sampled a stronger capping inversion at 850 mb compared to what is depicted by latest high-res guidance. This casts some uncertainty on convective coverage across southwest AR; however, trends in time-lagged ensemble guidance and early high-res WoFS solutions continue to show reasonably high confidence in thunderstorm development along and north of the I-40 corridor in AR and downstream into northern MS, middle TN, and northwest AL later tonight. Although storm mode will likely transition to clusters and embedded semi-discrete cells after 06 UTC, some severe threat will likely persist into the early morning hours given adequate buoyancy and ample deep-layer wind shear. The eastern extent of the 5% wind/hail contours have been adjusted accordingly. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and recently issued MCD #646 for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026/ ...Northeast TX into the Mid-South... Radar mosaic shows an MCV moving east across far western KY with a band of weak thunderstorms extending south and west across western TN. Convective outflow associated with the showers/thunderstorms extends from east-west near I-40 across AR into eastern OK where it intersects a triple point over central OK. A cold front is draped southwest to northeast along the I-44 corridor from western north TX northeastward into the Ozarks. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud cover from northeast TX northeastward into AR and the lower OH Valley. A plume of richer moisture at the surface is denoted by mid to upper 60s deg F dewpoints protruding north from east-central TX into north TX and southeast OK. Further moistening of low levels via southerly return flow is forecast beneath a capping inversion around 850 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Forth Worth, TX raob. Gradual boundary layer heating will result in surface temperatures warming into the upper 80s over north TX with muted heating farther northeast over AR where persistent cloud cover will inhibit stronger heating. Model guidance shows MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg from northeast AR southwestward into southwest AR, and upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE across north TX by mid-late afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are anticipated. However, thinning clouds near the OK/AR border and the erosion of convective inhibition as convective temperatures are breached over north TX will result in isolated to scattered storms developing during 20-23 UTC period. Initial supercell mode is forecast over north TX with some clustering expected during the evening. The tornado risk over north TX will likely be limited by relatively weak low-level shear but strong mid to high-level flow will promote large to very large hail growth (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Farther northeast, isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop east of the eastward-migrating surface low and near the front by the mid-late afternoon. HRRR time-lagged runs this morning show a few supercells with one more longer track storms moving developing and moving east across central AR in a larger SRH environment. An all hazards severe risk may accompany the stronger storms in AR beginning later this afternoon and possibly persisting through the evening as this activity moves east towards the MS River. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms is expected as moderately strong southwesterly 850 to 700-mb flow is maintained across the Mid South. Damaging gusts and perhaps a lingering tornado risk will possibly spread east tonight before storms weaken late. ...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England... A marginally moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME. Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized storms. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the boundary, with linear structures favored. Damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY. Read more

MD 0646 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0646 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Areas affected...parts of northwestern into north central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051937Z - 052230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The initiation of strong thunderstorms appears possible to the west of Dallas/Forth Worth within the next couple of hours. This may include the evolution of an intensifying supercell or two, which could pose potential for producing large, damaging hail impacting at least parts of the Metroplex by 5-7 PM. If/when this becomes more certain, a severe weather watch probably will be needed. DISCUSSION...Just ahead of a southward advancing cold front, now southeast of the Wichita Falls TX vicinity, stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing are ongoing in a narrow corridor roughly focused along I-20 across the Abilene into Fort Worth vicinity. At least attempts at deepening convective development are underway within this regime to the west-north of Mineral Wells, where low-level forcing for ascent may be aided by weak low-level warm advection and locally enhanced convergence, near the general intersection of the cold front and dryline. This is occurring beneath larger-scale mid/upper ridging overspreading much of the southern Great Plains. However, based on various model output, including convection allowing guidance, further insolation, coupled with subtle mid-level height falls and cooling, might become supportive of thunderstorm initiation within the next few hours. How long this activity is sustained before tending to be undercut by the southward advancing cold front, and whether this occurs prior to acquiring inflow of higher boundary-layer moisture content along and to the east of the dryline, remain unclear. Even in the drier more strongly heated boundary-layer just to the west/southwest of the cold front/dryline intersection, initial thunderstorm development may become capable of producing large hail and a locally strong downburst, in the presence of steep-lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. If convection is able to acquire inflow of boundary-layer air with dew points near 70F, which may be maintained across eastern portions of the Metroplex, the potential for much larger and damaging hail will become considerably greater. ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 33289903 33379822 33019639 32189747 32399914 32829950 33289903 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level speed max will move across the Southeast to Mid Atlantic Thursday as the parent upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. A cold front will extend roughly from the central Carolinas to the north-central Gulf Coast by late afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of it. Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday morning across much of this region ahead of the cold front, within the 850 mb theta-e plume. A few strong gusts will be possible. Thereafter, the rapid progression of the upper trough will foster midlevel drying, with veering low-level winds. As such, the greatest potential for a few strong storms appear to be from morning through midday prior to the front moving offshore. Forecast soundings show very strong deep-layer shear, but also increasing midlevel subsidence which may counteract additional late afternoon development. Any additional late day development should be quite isolated and marginal in nature. ..Jewell.. 05/05/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... An elongated upper-level trough deepens across the Great Lakes into the Southwest Wednesday, with a broad corridor of stronger mid-level winds over the Southern Plains. A related cold front stretching southwestward from the Northeast into TX gradually advances east through Wednesday afternoon before a marked southward acceleration takes place overnight across TX. A drying and warming trend commences Wednesday across the Intermountain West as an upper ridge pushes into the West Coast. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Stronger mid-level flow will linger across portions of the Southwest and TX as a more robust jet core of 75-80 knots shifts into the OH River Valley. Stronger westerly winds of 15-25 mph south of an advancing cold front over the TX Panhandle and enhanced downslope drying should yield 15% RH or less across much of southern NM into West TX. However, recent rainfall has moderated fuels across this region, mitigating the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA ARCROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Tornadoes appear most likely from Mississippi into Alabama. Corridors of damaging winds may occur from Texas into Georgia. ...Synopsis... Strong mid to high level winds will intensify across the MS/OH/TN Valleys on Wednesday as a positive-tilt upper trough moves out of the Plains. Midlevel winds up to 50 kt will extend as far south as the Gulf Coast, with 70+ kt sweeping across the TN Valley to the Appalachians late. At the surface, a cold front will extend from central TX into northern MS and AL by 00Z, with a very moist air mass ahead of it. Dewpoints in the 70s F will be common from TX into MS, with mid 60s F into western GA by evening. Instability will be greatest from TX into MS during the day, but will develop eastward across AL and into western GA due to persistent west/southwest winds in the low levels. The expansive area of strong deep-layer shear atop the very moist air mass will support scattered to widespread thunderstorms beginning late afternoon and spreading during the evening and overnight. Corridors of tornado and wind damage potential appear likely, with hail from TX into LA/MS. ...Eastern TX across much of the Southeast... Early day storms are possible across TN and into northern MS/AL/GA, possibly elevated due to and e-w outflow. A marginal wind threat cannot be ruled out at that time. The primary severe risk will develop during the late afternoon after 21Z and into the early evening, as instability builds. Supercells may develop along and ahead of the cold front. The deep moist layer combined with strong mid and high level flow should support supercell mode with minimal cold downdraft initially. The severe risk may persist during the evening into GA as the southwesterly low-level jet brings instability into that area. Corridors of damaging winds may evolve as well, especially along the cold front late as storms become more numerous. Farther west into TX, supercells producing hail and locally damaging gusts are also likely near the front. ..Jewell.. 05/05/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...Morning Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, clear skies this morning and poor overnight recoveries have resulted in widespread RH values of 25-40 percent. In parts of southeastern NM and West Texas, mostly cloudy skies will remain over the area as the subtropical jet transports mid-high level moisture overhead. Surface troughing in the lee of the NM high terrain through far West TX will align with low level thermal ridging, promoting warm afternoon temperatures and gusty westerly winds. Widespread gusts of up to 35 mph appear likely throughout the Plains, with locally higher gusts possible (especially along the higher terrain). However, a tempered fuelscape due to recent rainfall mitigates a broader fire threat. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026/ ...Synopsis... Stronger southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an advancing upper-level trough will move into the Southern Plains through today. A cold front trailing behind an elongated surface low over OK should stall across the TX Panhandle and just south of the Red River Valley this afternoon. Farther east, a deepening upper trough over Ontario and Quebec and associated increasing southwesterly mid-level flow will encroach into the Northeast today. At the surface, drier pre-frontal southwest flow will affect much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Mid Atlantic... Dry, southerly to southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving cold front across the OH River Valley is expected across the Mid Atlantic today. Limited boundary layer moisture, leading to RH reductions of 20-30%, and sustained south/southwest winds of around 15 mph with higher gusts will evolve by mid-afternoon in the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. A zone of minimal rainfall has resulted in lingering fuel dryness across northern NC into much of central and eastern VA. Elevated fire weather highlights where added to the aforementioned area where most likely alignment of dry and breezy conditions and dry fuels exist. ...West Texas... A 60-65 knot mid-level jet in advance of an upper trough will eject into the Southern Plains today. A cold front will stall across the northwest TX, inhibiting dry, downslope enhanced westerly flow from aligning with the more receptive fuels across the eastern TX Panhandle into southwestern KS. Breezy west winds of 15-25 mph amid relative humidity of around 15% are still expected across much of west TX. However, recent wetting rainfall in the region has mitigated the overall fuelscape, limiting impact from an otherwise elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon through this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...Northeast TX into the Mid-South... Radar mosaic shows an MCV moving east across far western KY with a band of weak thunderstorms extending south and west across western TN. Convective outflow associated with the showers/thunderstorms extends from east-west near I-40 across AR into eastern OK where it intersects a triple point over central OK. A cold front is draped southwest to northeast along the I-44 corridor from western north TX northeastward into the Ozarks. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud cover from northeast TX northeastward into AR and the lower OH Valley. A plume of richer moisture at the surface is denoted by mid to upper 60s deg F dewpoints protruding north from east-central TX into north TX and southeast OK. Further moistening of low levels via southerly return flow is forecast beneath a capping inversion around 850 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Forth Worth, TX raob. Gradual boundary layer heating will result in surface temperatures warming into the upper 80s over north TX with muted heating farther northeast over AR where persistent cloud cover will inhibit stronger heating. Model guidance shows MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg from northeast AR southwestward into southwest AR, and upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE across north TX by mid-late afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are anticipated. However, thinning clouds near the OK/AR border and the erosion of convective inhibition as convective temperatures are breached over north TX will result in isolated to scattered storms developing during 20-23 UTC period. Initial supercell mode is forecast over north TX with some clustering expected during the evening. The tornado risk over north TX will likely be limited by relatively weak low-level shear but strong mid to high-level flow will promote large to very large hail growth (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Farther northeast, isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop east of the eastward-migrating surface low and near the front by the mid-late afternoon. HRRR time-lagged runs this morning show a few supercells with one more longer track storms moving developing and moving east across central AR in a larger SRH environment. An all hazards severe risk may accompany the stronger storms in AR beginning later this afternoon and possibly persisting through the evening as this activity moves east towards the MS River. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms is expected as moderately strong southwesterly 850 to 700-mb flow is maintained across the Mid South. Damaging gusts and perhaps a lingering tornado risk will possibly spread east tonight before storms weaken late. ...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England... A marginally moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME. Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized storms. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the boundary, with linear structures favored. Damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 05/05/2026 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 5 12:56:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast. ...Northeast TX into the Mid-South... Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving across central/northeast AR. Outflow associated with this cluster stretches from north of LIT northwestward between FSM and FYV into northeast OK. Surface analysis also places a low over western OK. A cold front extends east-northeastward from this low through far northeast OK and southern MO, and a dryline extends southwestward from the low through the Permian Basin. These boundaries, particularly the cold front and outflow boundary, could act as a focal points for redevelopment as the airmass across the region destabilizes amid heating and low-level moisture advection this afternoon. A combination of afternoon temperatures in the low 80s, dewpoints in the mid 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg) within the warm sector this afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are anticipated. Some weak capping may prevail as well, particularly if the current cloudiness persists. These factors introduce notable uncertainty into the forecast, particularly regarding overall storm coverage. Seemingly, these factors should contribute to a widely scattered, but discrete, storm mode. The placement and evolution of the outflow may become apparent as heating begins, with observable trends in cloud cover possible as well. These factors could potentially reveal a corridor of higher storm coverage. However, confidence in the placement of such a corridor is currently low, precluding the introduction of any higher probabilities. That being said, the kinematic environment should be very supportive of supercells this afternoon/evening, with strong upper flow resulting in bulk shear around 60 kt. Any storms that do mature should be severe and capable of all hazards. Large to very large hail (i.e. 2"+) is possible early in each storm's convective cycle. Tornadoes are also possible, particularly from central AR into western TN where the low/mid-level flow will be strongest. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Storms may eventually grow upscale into clusters, at which point damaging winds would become the primary severe risk. ...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England... Early morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast Lower MI, along a cold front that extends from central Quebec southwestward through southern IL. This low is forecast to progress northeastward along the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity as the cold front also progresses eastward in response to an eastward shift of the parent cyclone from northern Ontario into northern Quebec. Modest low-level moisture will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of this cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME. Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized storm structures. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the boundary, with a bowing linear mode expected to be dominant (as shown by much of the convection-allowing guidance). Damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY. ..Mosier/Dean.. 05/05/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Mean upper troughing will persist east of the Rockies for the Day 4-8 period. This will largely suppress northward transport of Gulf moisture, except periodically across the southern Plains and Southeast/Gulf coast states. Severe potential is expected to be low on Day 4/Fri as surface high pressure dominates in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. On Day 5/Sat, lee troughing will allow for increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, aiding in moisture return across these areas. This could result in thunderstorm potential across the south-central U.S., but severe potential is limited given a lack of stronger forcing for ascent. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, another cold front is forecast to move east/southeast across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. As the front impinges on a moist airmass across the southern Plains to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, some severe potential could develop. However, mid to upper-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong and medium range guidance varies quite a bit with respect to moisture and cold front timing, resulting in low predictability. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina. ...Gulf coast to SC... A large upper trough will pivot over the eastern U.S. on Thursday. Strong west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will be in place across the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will develop south/southeast across portions of south TX, the central Gulf coast states and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the boundary, and some risk for strong to severe storms will exist near the progressing cold front from southern MS/AL into SC. There is some uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front Thursday morning. The NAM is faster compared to the GFS and ECMWF. Nevertheless, rich Gulf moisture ahead of the boundary will support at least modest destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing near the front Thursday morning. Redevelopment or intensification into midday and through the afternoon appears plausible given strong deep-layer flow within the modestly unstable airmass. Clusters and linear convection appear most likely, with an attendant risk of damaging wind. ...South TX... Severe potential across south TX is uncertain and will depend on cold frontal position Thursday morning. If southward progress of the front is slowly, some risk of severe could develop across south TX where 70s dewpoints and daytime heating could support strong instability. If storms develop, a risk for hail appears possible. However, some forecast guidance surges the cold front southward across the region during the morning and maintains capping through the day. Low confidence precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/05/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina. ...Gulf coast to SC... A large upper trough will pivot over the eastern U.S. on Thursday. Strong west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will be in place across the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will develop south/southeast across portions of south TX, the central Gulf coast states and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the boundary, and some risk for strong to severe storms will exist near the progressing cold front from southern MS/AL into SC. There is some uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front Thursday morning. The NAM is faster compared to the GFS and ECMWF. Nevertheless, rich Gulf moisture ahead of the boundary will support at least modest destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing near the front Thursday morning. Redevelopment or intensification into midday and through the afternoon appears plausible given strong deep-layer flow within the modestly unstable airmass. Clusters and linear convection appear most likely, with an attendant risk of damaging wind. ...South TX... Severe potential across south TX is uncertain and will depend on cold frontal position Thursday morning. If southward progress of the front is slowly, some risk of severe could develop across south TX where 70s dewpoints and daytime heating could support strong instability. If storms develop, a risk for hail appears possible. However, some forecast guidance surges the cold front southward across the region during the morning and maintains capping through the day. Low confidence precludes severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/05/2026 Read more