Storm Prediction Center

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 7 06:35:05 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough shifts off the Eastern Seaboard into the Atlantic today as a trailing, lower amplitude upper wave enters the Midwest and Central Plains. At the surface, showers and thunderstorm development near a stationary frontal boundary will extend eastward from Texas along the northern Gulf Coast and FL Panhandle, bringing some relief to portions of northern FL. Warm and dry conditions under a building ridge across the western U.S. will manifest largely as a fuel curing/drying event west of the Continental Divide. ...Northern Plains... Broad northwest flow aloft will encompass much of the central and northern Plains Friday, with troughing across the eastern U.S. and a building ridge over the Intermountain West. Lack of significant rainfall over portions of ND and eastern MT has allowed more receptive fuels to emerge over the last few weeks. West/northwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity falling close to 20% will combine with increasingly dry fuels to promote an elevated fire weather concern for portions of the northern Plains. Elevated Highlights were introduced across far northeastern MT into western ND to account for this fire weather threat. A temporary improvement in fire weather conditions is expected late Friday and Friday night as a cold front shifts south from Saskatchewan. A few showers and initially high based thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, but widespread wetting precipitation unlikely. ..Williams.. 05/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough shifts off the Eastern Seaboard into the Atlantic today as a trailing, lower amplitude upper wave enters the Midwest and Central Plains. At the surface, showers and thunderstorm development near a stationary frontal boundary will extend eastward from Texas along the northern Gulf Coast and FL Panhandle, bringing some relief to portions of northern FL. Warm and dry conditions under a building ridge across the western U.S. will manifest largely as a fuel curing/drying event west of the Continental Divide. ...Northern Plains... Broad northwest flow aloft will encompass much of the central and northern Plains Friday, with troughing across the eastern U.S. and a building ridge over the Intermountain West. Lack of significant rainfall over portions of ND and eastern MT has allowed more receptive fuels to emerge over the last few weeks. West/northwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity falling close to 20% will combine with increasingly dry fuels to promote an elevated fire weather concern for portions of the northern Plains. Elevated Highlights were introduced across far northeastern MT into western ND to account for this fire weather threat. A temporary improvement in fire weather conditions is expected late Friday and Friday night as a cold front shifts south from Saskatchewan. A few showers and initially high based thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, but widespread wetting precipitation unlikely. ..Williams.. 05/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and attendant strong mid-level southwesterly flow will progress eastward into the eastern CONUS today. A related cold front and associated rainfall will near the Southeast Coast by this afternoon. Elevated west to southwest winds south of the advancing front amid low relative humidity and dry fuels will bring a fire weather threat to portions of FL today. An upper ridge building over the western U.S. will promote warm and dry conditions across the region today. ...Florida Peninsula... West to southwest winds of around 10 mph with higher gusts across northern FL will evolve within a tightening pressure gradient manifested by an advancing cold front to the north. Near record high surface temperatures within a dry and well-mixed boundary layer reaching the lower to middle 90s F, will promote afternoon RH of 25-35% across inland and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula. Numerous active wildfires are present across northern FL amid a very dry and drought stressed fuelscape. The dry conditions combined with an emerging steady west to southwest wind late morning through the afternoon will support an Elevated fire weather threat in portions of northeastern and east-central FL Peninsula. ..Williams.. 05/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and attendant strong mid-level southwesterly flow will progress eastward into the eastern CONUS today. A related cold front and associated rainfall will near the Southeast Coast by this afternoon. Elevated west to southwest winds south of the advancing front amid low relative humidity and dry fuels will bring a fire weather threat to portions of FL today. An upper ridge building over the western U.S. will promote warm and dry conditions across the region today. ...Florida Peninsula... West to southwest winds of around 10 mph with higher gusts across northern FL will evolve within a tightening pressure gradient manifested by an advancing cold front to the north. Near record high surface temperatures within a dry and well-mixed boundary layer reaching the lower to middle 90s F, will promote afternoon RH of 25-35% across inland and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula. Numerous active wildfires are present across northern FL amid a very dry and drought stressed fuelscape. The dry conditions combined with an emerging steady west to southwest wind late morning through the afternoon will support an Elevated fire weather threat in portions of northeastern and east-central FL Peninsula. ..Williams.. 05/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0189 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 189 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/07/26 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 189 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-011-013-023-025-035-039-041-053-085-087-097-099-101- 109-113-129-131-070640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA LOWNDES MACON MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-070640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA LAC117-070640- LA Read more

WW 189 TORNADO AL FL LA MS CW 070400Z - 071100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 189 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Western Florida Panhandle Southeast Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1100 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storm threat will continue regionally overnight within a moist environment with strong shear, and this includes damaging wind and tornado potential. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Pine Belt MS to 35 miles northeast of Dothan AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 186...WW 187...WW 188... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Plains as a shortwave upper trough develops east across the Mid-MS, OH and TN Valleys through early Saturday. A surface front will extend along the TX coast northeastward through the northern Gulf. This boundary will lift northward through the period, allowing for moisture return across TX, the Lower MS Valley and parts of the Southeast. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is forecast to develop southeast across parts of the Plains and Midwest, becoming oriented from the OH Valley to southern AR and north TX by Saturday morning. ...KS/OK/MO/AR... Moisture return will be limited ahead of the aforementioned cold front, with surface dewpoints generally expected to be in the 50s. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are noted in forecast soundings, aided by cool temperatures aloft. This will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg within a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support organized updrafts. Given the cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight forecast hodographs, isolated large hail is possible. Furthermore, where there is stronger heating, deep boundary layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates will be possible, and isolated strong/severe wind gusts may occur. Instability will diminish with time and eastward extent into the evening as storms move across parts of MO/AR. ...TX to the Lower MS Valley... Model guidance remains somewhat uncertain with regards to severe potential across TX. Early day thunderstorms, showers, and cloudiness are possible as Gulf moisture returns northward across portions of the state. Capping and initially weak forcing and modest shear will likely preclude severe potential through much of the day. Isolated thunderstorms will likely also develop along the retreating warm front across the Lower MS Valley vicinity, but severe storms are not expected. It is possible that by evening into the nighttime hours some severe potential could develop across portions of TX as the upper shortwave trough overspreads the region, resulting in increasing forcing within the warm advection regime. Some storms developing over the higher terrain in Mexico could approach the middle/lower Rio Grande in TX, and if they can be maintained, pose a risk for large hail. However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/07/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...NORTHWEST AR...AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MO... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Plains as a shortwave upper trough develops east across the Mid-MS, OH and TN Valleys through early Saturday. A surface front will extend along the TX coast northeastward through the northern Gulf. This boundary will lift northward through the period, allowing for moisture return across TX, the Lower MS Valley and parts of the Southeast. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is forecast to develop southeast across parts of the Plains and Midwest, becoming oriented from the OH Valley to southern AR and north TX by Saturday morning. ...KS/OK/MO/AR... Moisture return will be limited ahead of the aforementioned cold front, with surface dewpoints generally expected to be in the 50s. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates are noted in forecast soundings, aided by cool temperatures aloft. This will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg within a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support organized updrafts. Given the cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated/straight forecast hodographs, isolated large hail is possible. Furthermore, where there is stronger heating, deep boundary layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates will be possible, and isolated strong/severe wind gusts may occur. Instability will diminish with time and eastward extent into the evening as storms move across parts of MO/AR. ...TX to the Lower MS Valley... Model guidance remains somewhat uncertain with regards to severe potential across TX. Early day thunderstorms, showers, and cloudiness are possible as Gulf moisture returns northward across portions of the state. Capping and initially weak forcing and modest shear will likely preclude severe potential through much of the day. Isolated thunderstorms will likely also develop along the retreating warm front across the Lower MS Valley vicinity, but severe storms are not expected. It is possible that by evening into the nighttime hours some severe potential could develop across portions of TX as the upper shortwave trough overspreads the region, resulting in increasing forcing within the warm advection regime. Some storms developing over the higher terrain in Mexico could approach the middle/lower Rio Grande in TX, and if they can be maintained, pose a risk for large hail. However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 05/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible Thursday across southeast Alabama, and portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... Separate vorticity maxima over the northern Plains and Raton Mesa vicinity this evening are forecast to phase while progressing through the southern periphery of broader-scale troughing present across eastern Canada into the OH Valley and Northeast. That pattern evolution will contribute to more substantial height falls from the mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians and Southeast on Thursday. Strong, mid/upper-level flow will be maintained within the base of the deepening trough from the lower-MS Valley into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, a cold front is expected to initially stretch from the Tidewater region to diffuse low pressure over the western Carolinas into northeast GA, and then southwest to the central Gulf Coast. That boundary will slowly advance southeast through the day, with that feature along with any convective outflow boundaries serving as the foci for strong to severe storm development. ...Carolinas to northeast Gulf Coast... Convection-allowing model guidance suggests that a west-to-east-oriented, pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) across southern AL and the FL Panhandle into southern GA, rooted within a warm-advection regime along a 40-50 kt low-level jet. The low-level jet will aid in the northeastward advection of an increasingly moist boundary layer from off the northeast Gulf with dewpoints increasing into the low 70s within the inflow region of the early-day storms. That moisture will largely contribute to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. The presence of the low-level jet will support initially strong near-ground shear (i.e., effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) within the instability axis preceding the storms. However, that feature is forecast to gradually weaken while migrating east through the morning, with seemingly the best tornado potential existing during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress southeast through the level 2/Slight Risk area. Farther to the northeast across the NC/SC Piedmont and Coastal Plain, poor lapse rates are expected to limit instability to generally less than 500 j/kg. However, deep-layer wind fields will be strong, suggesting the potential for locally strong wind gusts with any deeper convective elements forming along and ahead of the cold front from late morning into afternoon. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/deep South Texas... There is a model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm development at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) with the location of the storms varying from model to model. RAP-based soundings suggest that the storms would be slightly elevated above a stable, near-surface layer within a moderately unstable environment with MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates aren't expected to be particularly steep, the presence of 50-60+ kt effective bulk shear magnitudes would support the potential for supercell structures capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe-weather threat is expect to remain confined to the morning hours. ..Mead/Lyons.. 05/07/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible Thursday across southeast Alabama, and portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and deep South Texas. ...Synopsis... Separate vorticity maxima over the northern Plains and Raton Mesa vicinity this evening are forecast to phase while progressing through the southern periphery of broader-scale troughing present across eastern Canada into the OH Valley and Northeast. That pattern evolution will contribute to more substantial height falls from the mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians and Southeast on Thursday. Strong, mid/upper-level flow will be maintained within the base of the deepening trough from the lower-MS Valley into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, a cold front is expected to initially stretch from the Tidewater region to diffuse low pressure over the western Carolinas into northeast GA, and then southwest to the central Gulf Coast. That boundary will slowly advance southeast through the day, with that feature along with any convective outflow boundaries serving as the foci for strong to severe storm development. ...Carolinas to northeast Gulf Coast... Convection-allowing model guidance suggests that a west-to-east-oriented, pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) across southern AL and the FL Panhandle into southern GA, rooted within a warm-advection regime along a 40-50 kt low-level jet. The low-level jet will aid in the northeastward advection of an increasingly moist boundary layer from off the northeast Gulf with dewpoints increasing into the low 70s within the inflow region of the early-day storms. That moisture will largely contribute to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. The presence of the low-level jet will support initially strong near-ground shear (i.e., effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) within the instability axis preceding the storms. However, that feature is forecast to gradually weaken while migrating east through the morning, with seemingly the best tornado potential existing during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress southeast through the level 2/Slight Risk area. Farther to the northeast across the NC/SC Piedmont and Coastal Plain, poor lapse rates are expected to limit instability to generally less than 500 j/kg. However, deep-layer wind fields will be strong, suggesting the potential for locally strong wind gusts with any deeper convective elements forming along and ahead of the cold front from late morning into afternoon. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/deep South Texas... There is a model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm development at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) with the location of the storms varying from model to model. RAP-based soundings suggest that the storms would be slightly elevated above a stable, near-surface layer within a moderately unstable environment with MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates aren't expected to be particularly steep, the presence of 50-60+ kt effective bulk shear magnitudes would support the potential for supercell structures capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe-weather threat is expect to remain confined to the morning hours. ..Mead/Lyons.. 05/07/2026 Read more

WW 0188 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 188 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LGC TO 45 W AGS. ..THORNTON..05/07/26 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 188 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC053-145-171-177-197-199-215-231-239-243-249-259-261-263-269- 273-285-293-307-070540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHATTAHOOCHEE HARRIS LAMAR LEE MARION MERIWETHER MUSCOGEE PIKE QUITMAN RANDOLPH SCHLEY STEWART SUMTER TALBOT TAYLOR TERRELL TROUP UPSON WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0187 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 187 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE MEI TO 25 NNW AUO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662 ..THORNTON..05/07/26 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 187 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-011-013-017-021-023-025-035-037-041-047-051-065-081- 085-087-091-099-101-105-109-113-119-123-129-131-070440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COOSA CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE HALE LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE RUSSELL SUMTER TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N LFT TO 10 NNE HEZ TO 30 NE MEI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662 ..THORNTON..05/07/26 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 186 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-011-037-039-077-079-091-097-105-115-117-125-070440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY TANGIPAHOA VERNON WASHINGTON WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-023-029-031-035-037-041-061-063-065-067-073-075-077- 085-091-109-111-113-127-129-147-153-157-070440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN GREENE JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain/limited on Friday/Friday night. ...TX... A compact upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico will develop east over TX on Friday/Friday night. Ahead of this feature, shortwave upper ridging will persist across the south-central U.S. through at least Friday evening. Weak south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across TX, supporting modest destabilization. Most guidance depicts capping across the region, with warm temperatures within the 850-700 mb layer noted in forecast soundings. However, models do differ with regards to the strength of the cap. Weak flow is also expected below 500 mb, though veering wind profiles will result in stronger effective shear. Thunderstorm development is uncertain, but if storms can development and be maintained, some hail risk is possible given steep midlevel lapse rates. Given uncertainty regarding depth and timing of moisture return and persistent capping, will hold off from adding a Level 1 (Marginal) risk at this time, especially as it is unclear where the best potential would develop across TX. ..Leitman.. 05/06/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed May 6 06:26:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0650 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FROM SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 0650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026 Areas affected...from southeast OK/northeast TX into parts of the Mid-South Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060554Z - 060800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may still develop overnight. DISCUSSION...Generally weak and disorganized convection is ongoing early this morning from parts of southeast OK into AR and western TN. Much of this activity is occurring just north of a southward-sagging cold front. Low-level warm/moist advection will continue to support elevated convection north of the boundary overnight, with MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and strong effective shear conditionally supporting organized convection. While storms have struggled thus far, it remains possible that an elevated supercell or more organized storm cluster could develop with time, posing a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. Storms have also recently developed southwest of Little Rock, to the south of the primary front. While this convection may tend to remain elevated due to increasing low-level stability, there may be a window of opportunity for a near-surface-based storm to evolve near/south of the front before convection is undercut. Should this occur, a brief tornado threat could evolve, in addition to hail and damaging-wind potential. ..Dean/Mosier.. 05/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... OUN... LAT...LON 34399607 34789495 35129230 35928957 36008834 35828792 35518761 35108751 34658781 34458815 33889073 33749188 33609261 33379352 33079459 33629569 33749601 34399607 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated mid-level speed max will shift into eastern CONUS Thursday. A cold front and attendant band of showers and thunderstorms will overspread much of the Southeast and Piedmont regions. Increasing westerly low-level flow south of the frontal boundary will bring fire weather concerns to portions of eastern FL Thursday. A building upper ridge across the western U.S. will promote warming temperatures and dry conditions for the region. ...Florida Peninsula... Enhanced westerly surface winds of 10-15 mph are expected across the FL Peninsula as a cold front approaches the FL/GA border Thursday. Inland temperatures in the low to mid 90s F will evolve within a dry, well mixed boundary layer by early Thursday afternoon. The warm temperatures, increasing westerly flow amid relative humidity in the 25-35% range and drying fuels, will support an elevated fire weather concern for portions of the eastern FL Peninsula where Elevated Highlights have been introduced. ..Williams.. 05/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level split flow consolidates into a broader southwesterly 70-80 knot jet over the Ozarks into the OH River Valley today ahead of an elongated upper trough stretching from the Upper Midwest to the Desert Southwest. At the surface, an advancing cold front extends southwestward from the Northeast into the Southern Plains. A deepening lee surface trough across eastern NM will promote dry, downslope westerly winds across portions of the southern NM and west TX under reinforcing southwesterly flow aloft. ...Southern New Mexico into West Texas... Southwesterly flow aloft and low-level westerly winds (south of an evolving lee surface low) will affect much of southern NM and West TX today. Enhanced downslope drying yielding minimum RH of 10-15% along with west winds of 15-25 mph are expected during peak boundary layer mixing today. However, marginal fuels will inhibit overall wildfire spread potential due to recent rainfall, although pockets of dry fuels could support localized elevated fire weather concerns particularly across the Cap Rock area. ..Williams.. 05/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina. ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into SC... Moderate to strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will persist across the Southeast on Thursday as an upper trough pivots across Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is forecast from the southern Mid-Atlantic to southern MS/southeast LA Thursday morning. This boundary will develop east/southeast through the period moving off the Atlantic coast and arcing across north-central FL and just off the Gulf coast. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist boundary layer will be in place with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low 70s, supporting MLCAPE up to around 1500 J/kg. Some showers and thunderstorms could be ongoing near the front at the beginning of the period. Where stronger heating can occur ahead of this activity and the front, intensification of morning convection and/or new development is possible. Given deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary and poor frontal convergence, clusters and linear segments are most probable. Given strong deep-layer flow, isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Speed shear in the lowest couple of kilometers and 0-1 SRH up to 150 m2/s2 could also support a brief tornado, but strong/damaging gusts are expected to be the main hazard. ..Leitman.. 05/06/2026 Read more