Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered but intense severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes all possible. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High Plains today. As daytime heating occurs and low-level clouds present this morning gradually erode, 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by mid to late afternoon in a narrow corridor across northeast CO into southeast WY. This instability will also be aided by the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorms should eventually develop this afternoon across much the region as strong mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a shortwave trough over the northern Plains overspreads the central Rockies/High Plains. The highest convective coverage is anticipated from south-central/southeast WY into northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy should be maximized. Deep-layer shear will be rather strong, with values up to 50-60 kt. These conditions will support the potential for intense supercells capable of large to very large hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter possible). Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two in this region as well. Eventual upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of producing severe winds is probable into eastern CO/western KS this evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible. Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may also occur. ...Upper Midwest... A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread WI and vicinity today as a weak shortwave trough moves across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Extensive cloudiness is prevalent across WI this morning, which will delay daytime heating to some extent. But, seasonably cool temperatures aloft will aid up to around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating along/ahead of a weak cold front. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with moderate to locally strong deep-layer shear providing support for updraft organization. A mix of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds as they spread east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before eventually weakening. Enough confidence exists in this scenario occurring to include greater severe hail probabilities and a corresponding Slight Risk. ...Great Basin/Four Corners... Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances east-northeastward from the lower CO River Valley across the Great Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well mixed with strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon, with weak instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will aid in northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists for strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon and early evening. Have maintained the Slight Risk for severe winds across parts of UT with no changes, as this area still appears to have the best overlap of low-level moisture/instability and scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across northern OK/southern KS, likely aided by weak low-level warm advection. Recent radar imagery suggests this activity may be acquiring an MCV circulation. This feature should track southeastward towards the ArkLaTex through the day, generally along and north of a surface front stalled near the Red River. Eventual re-strengthening of convection may occur, even though deep-layer flow and related shear should remain rather modest. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores that form, but the potential for a more organized bowing complex is uncertain. Farther south into the lower MS Valley, additional thunderstorms may form this afternoon ahead of the ongoing convection in northern LA in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. While flow through the troposphere is expected to remain fairly modest with southward extent across this region, some loosely organized clusters could pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they spread towards the central Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Florida... Morning visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the FL Peninsula. A moist low-level airmass with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s is in place along/south of a front draped across north FL. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today, cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support the development of moderate to locally strong instability this afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are expected to develop across the interior FL Peninsula and Atlantic Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible given steepened low-level lapse rates. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/24/2026 Read more

WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 386 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N AKO TO 35 ENE MCK. ..JEWELL..06/24/26 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-061-063-099-125-240740- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON PROWERS YUMA KSC023-039-055-063-067-069-071-075-081-093-101-109-119-129-153- 171-175-179-181-187-189-193-199-203-240740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR FINNEY GOVE GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA Read more

WW 0385 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W COS TO 30 SSW DEN TO 15 N DEN TO 15 WSW IML. ..JEWELL..06/24/26 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 385 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-025-039-041-055-071-073-089-101-121-240740- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO HUERFANO LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PUEBLO WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 385 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 232235Z - 240700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 435 PM until 100 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify over the Watch area through the late afternoon and evening. The stronger thunderstorms will be supercellular with a large to giant hail risk (1 to 3.5 inches in diameter) likely accompanying these storms. Severe gusts are also expected with high-based storms over southern portions of Wyoming late this afternoon and with the stronger supercells and clusters forecast to evolve over the plains this evening into tonight. A tornado or two is also possible with a supercell mainly this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles west northwest of Torrington WY to 65 miles east of Pueblo CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 381...WW 382...WW 383...WW 384... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31020. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes during the day on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Ontario with a trailing cold front into the Ohio Valley. Farther west, several mid-level shortwave troughs will be embedded within the broader zonal flow across the Plains. The most prominant feature will be a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to move from eastern Colorado Thursday morning to the Ozarks by the evening. A lee surface cyclone is forecast in the Texas Panhandle vicinity. ...High Plains... Widespread convection/cloud cover is likely from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming on Thursday morning. This will limit surface-based instability across the region for much of the day. Eventual destabilization is expected by late afternoon/early evening as the cloud cover clears. As a mid-level shortwave trough moves through Wyoming, expect storms to develop during the evening with some severe wind potential. The lack of strong heating has lessened hail and significant wind potential across this region. Therefore, the CIG1 area has been removed. Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected which, combined with moderate mid-level flow, may support some supercell threat with weak upslope flow across southeast Kansas, and continuing east along the frontal boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles. ...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks... A morning MCS is expected to move along/north of a frontal zone across Kansas during the morning on Thursday. In the wake of this morning MCS, strong destabilization is forecast with moderate mid-level flow aloft. Therefore, supercells are expected to develop on the remnant outflow/frontal zone Thursday afternoon and evening from southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma potentially into the Ozarks. Given storm motion that should be parallel to the boundary, the enhanced vorticity along this zone could result in a locally greater tornado threat. In addition, most guidance shows a strengthening low-level jet across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. This may support a strong tornado threat, particularly during the evening. ...Eastern Ohio to southern New York... Weak to moderate instability is expected to develop across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania Thursday morning with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Moderate to strong forcing on the leading edge of a compact mid-level jet streak should result in storm development along the front by mid-afternoon. Strong shear should assist in storm organization, but weak lapse rates may limit overall updraft strength. Due to the weak to moderate instability and strong shear, 5% wind probabilities are warranted. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains today with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern Utah. ...Synopsis... Current satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over northern Mexico, covering much of the Southeast and Texas. This imagery also shows an upper low centered near the ND/MN/Manitoba border intersection. These features are expected to remain largely in place throughout the day Wednesday, with a belt of moderate mid-level flow extending from the northern/central High Plains into mid MS Valley between these two features. Most guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving within this westerly flow across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley. A convectively augmented vorticity maximum is also forecast to arc through the northern periphery of the Southwest upper ridging, moving across the western Great Basin during the afternoon before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies during the evening/overnight. Evolution of these features, in addition to continued eastward/southeastward progress of any overnight convective complexes, will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Intermountain West to the MS Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over a few areas within this larger region, including northern/central UT, the Upper MS Valley, and from the central/southern High Plains into AR/MS. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will remain over the lower elevations of the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday, combining with strong heating and steep mid-level lapse rates to support the development of strong buoyancy by late afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible across the majority of the region, with the highest coverage anticipated from south-central/southeast WY into northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy is maximized as well. Deep-layer shear will be quite strong within this corridor as well, with 0-6 km shear from 55 to 65 kt possible. These conditions support the potential for robust supercells capable of large to very large hail. Hail from 3" to 4" in diameter is possible. Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two in this region as well, although the weak winds around 700 mb could result in slow supercell motion and potential for more storm interactions. Eventual upscale growth into forward-propagating MCS capable of strong to severe gusts is probable. Lower storm coverage is anticipated farther south, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant storm mode. Strong to severe gusts will be the primary risk, although some isolated hail is possible as well. ...Great Basin... Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region during the afternoon, as the convectively augmented vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis interacts with modest mid-level moisture and resulting buoyancy. A deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer will support potential thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, particularly across northern UT where higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. ...Upper Midwest... A modest surface low, attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley, is forecast to shift eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s ahead this low, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy given the low 60s dewpoints. The belt of stronger mid-level flow will also support moderate vertical shear (i.e. around 40 of 0-6 km shear) and the potential for more organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. ...South-Central KS/OK/Arklatex into MS... Evolution of the thunderstorms ongoing across eastern CO will significantly influence the early-day severe storm potential across the region. Current expectation is for some remnant of whatever cluster develops to be over south-central KS/north-central OK at the start of the period, perhaps beginning to interact with the western extent of a zone of warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms extending from north-central OK into southern AR/northern LA. Low predictability limits forecast confidence, but some limited severe potential, both within the cluster and within the more cellular warm-air advection storms, could exist in the morning if this scenario materializes. The downstream airmass will be very moist, and is forecast to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s. This could lead to a reintensification of the cluster and/or new development along its outflow. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but strong updrafts could result in enough water loading to produce a few strong gusts as the cluster continues southeastward. ...Southern MS/AL... Some guidance indicates the cluster currently moving across northern LA restrengthens as it moves through southern MS and southern AL later this morning/afternoon. Like the areas farther northwest, this region will be weakly sheared, but a few stronger water-loaded gusts are possible. ..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/24/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A sub-tropical moisture plume will continue shifting eastward across the Interior West by Thursday, focusing both wet and dry thunderstorm potential from southwestern WY through the Four Corners region. Scattered to isolated high-based thunderstorms will initiate across much of the drawn area on Day 2/Thursday afternoon. Depending on location/elevation and antecedent conditions from the previous day's convection, this activity will likely present as a mix of wet and dry storms. Given a dry sub-cloud layer, supportive of evaporation, the probability of new lightning ignitions over still receptive fuels will remain at least moderate - especially in areas that receive less or no rainfall from Day 1/Wednesday. Simultaneously, farther west, an intensifying trough over the West will interact with what's left of the ridge over the southwest to bring dry southwest flow to the western Great Basin. This region will see dry flow cut underneath the deeper Pacific moisture, leading to Elevated fire weather conditions where winds will be southwest to westerly at 15-20 mph amid minimum RHs ranging from 10-20 percent. While this sub-tropical moisture will briefly temper the severe dryness over the next couple of days, a much larger concern exists. Any lightning holdover ignitions from storms today and tomorrow could rapidly expand later this week. Forecast guidance continues to show a major, seasonally abnormal trough arriving Friday into Saturday, bringing widespread and significant critical fire weather conditions with southwest winds gusting above 40 mph ahead of a strong cold front. ..Stearns.. 06/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... ...Synopsis... ...Central and Western Utah and the Interior West... An upper-level shortwave trough entering the Great Basin will trigger high-based showers and scattered dry thunderstorms today. Thunderstorm activity will begin in southern Utah this morning before spreading across the larger region as daytime heating supports more widespread instability aided by topographic lift. Critically dry fuels and sub-cloud dryness will at least initially create an environment for lightning ignitions and potentially very strong outflow winds. Precipitable water values will climb toward 1.0 inch by evening, transitioning storms from dry to a wet and dry mix with a chance of localized wetting rains along the Interstate 15 corridor. However, gusty outflows will threaten active wildfires, and pyrocumulus development remains highly possible with pyrocumulonimbus not out of the question if surface heating from fire activity can maintain momentum. Isolated dry thunderstorms with quick storm motions of up to 30 mph and generally slightly drier moisture profiles will also impact the Four Corners, eastern Great Basin, Wyoming Basin, and the central Idaho and southwestern Montana mountains. ...Northwestern Colorado, Northeastern Utah, and Southern Wyoming... Ahead of this afternoon's incoming moisture plume, strong 45 to 50 knot mid-level flow will produce a window of elevated fire weather conditions. Expect sustained west-southwest winds around 15 mph paired with minimum relative humidity values down to 10 to 15 percent over dry fuels before humidity values begin increasing late in the evening. ...Central and Eastern Nevada... On the western flank of the aforementioned moisture plume and coinciding with a mid-level shortwave trough, 25-35 knot mid-level flow will be efficiently mixed down to the surface given the hot and dry boundary layer. This will result in sustained west to southwest winds around 15 mph paired with minimum relative humidity values down to 10 to 15 percent. While this sub-tropical moisture will briefly temper the severe dryness over the next couple of days, a much larger concern exists. Any lightning holdover ignitions from storms today and tomorrow could rapidly expand later this week. Forecast guidance continues to show a major, seasonally abnormal trough arriving Friday into Saturday, bringing widespread and significant critical fire weather conditions with southwest winds gusting above 40 mph ahead of a strong cold front. ..Stearns.. 06/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 386 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 240435Z - 241100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 386 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1135 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move east and southeast across the Watch area tonight. A few supercells are possible through the early overnight before some additional storm merging and consolidation of outflow leads to upscale growth of a larger linear cluster developing later tonight. Large to very large hail is possible with the more intense updrafts (1 to 2 inches in diameter). Scattered severe gusts are possible with the linear cluster of thunderstorms tonight with peak gusts 60 to 75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles west northwest of Mccook NE to 10 miles east southeast of Elkhart KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 385... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32030. ...Smith Read more

MD 1289 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385... Valid 240452Z - 240545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385 continues. SUMMARY...The severe hail risk continues with ongoing supercells, and this risk should persist for at least a few more hours. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells continue to progress across central and eastern CO, with the strongest storms (and associated greatest risk for severe hail) ongoing from El Paso to Las Animas Counties. Up to 3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 60 kts of effective bulk shear precedes these storms, and strong buoyancy should linger through the early morning hours given upper 60s F surface dewpoints in place. As such, the severe hail risk (including a few stones exceeding 2 inches in diameter) will continue for several more hours, and a few severe gusts may occur as well. The risk for severe gusts may also increase if the larger storms in southern CO can merge into an MCS. ..Squitieri.. 06/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37530452 38570481 40120499 40300497 40510411 40470375 40370316 40000262 39450218 38410213 37730217 37370232 37220266 37180358 37250405 37530452 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0386 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0386 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W LBB TO 15 S PVW TO 45 SSW CDS. WW 383 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/24/26 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC107-125-169-219-263-303-305-445-240300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROSBY DICKENS GARZA HOCKLEY KENT LUBBOCK LYNN TERRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W LBB TO 15 S PVW TO 45 SSW CDS. WW 383 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 240300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/24/26 ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC107-125-169-219-263-303-305-445-240300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CROSBY DICKENS GARZA HOCKLEY KENT LUBBOCK LYNN TERRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0384 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE TYR TO 45 SSE PRX TO 25 S DEQ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286 ..CHALMERS..06/24/26 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC037-063-067-203-315-343-459-240240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOWIE CAMP CASS HARRISON MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the southern Plains tonight. ...Central High Plains into the southern Plains... Three primary areas of thunderstorms currently exist across the region: southeast WY, east-central CO, and the TX South Plains vicinity. The northernmost cluster across southeast WY has struggled to maintain intensity, likely due to modest convective inhibition remaining in place. Even so, given the favorable low-level moisture downstream, there is still some chance for intensification. Environmental conditions support the potential for large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and isolated severe gusts with any storms that can mature into the more favorable buoyancy downstream. Large to very large hail remains possible for at least the next several hours with the discrete, splitting storms across east-central CO. Strong outflow (greater than 50 kt) remains possible as well. Additional storm development appears likely in this area amid persistent low-level moisture advection and a strengthening low-level jet. These additional storms will have similar hazards, with large to very large hail as the primary risk. Hail from 2" to 3.5" in diameter is possible. Strong gusts could become more likely with time if cold pool amalgamation results in a forward-propagating cluster. Several supercells continue across the TX South Plains. A strengthening low-level jet and steep mid-level lapse rates will help maintain the risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts with these storms for at least the next several hours. ...Arklatex and vicinity... Ongoing cluster moving through the Arklatex will likely continue southeastward tonight, with an attendant risk for isolated damaging gusts. Some hail is possible as well, particularly late tonight/early tomorrow with any warm-air advection storms that develop in the wake of this cluster. ..Mosier.. 06/24/2026 Read more

MD 1257 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376... FOR EASTERN WYOMING AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming and adjacent portions of Nebraska...South Dakota and far southeast Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 376... Valid 222010Z - 222215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 376 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail is slowly increasing across eastern Wyoming and far western Nebraska. This threat will gradually spread east/southeast over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR and MRMS data shows steady intensification of a trio of supercells near the Sheridan, WY area along with more isolated cells near Douglas, WY and near Kimball, NE. Across north/northeast WY, low-level moisture is more limited, but increasing ascent associated with the left-exit region of the 300 mb jet aloft continues to overspread the region, aiding in mid-level cooling and compensating for the otherwise modest moisture. This ascent will continue to promote storm intensification through early evening as cells spread east/southeast. Recent forecast guidance and SARS estimate hail sizes hint that hail sizes will most likely reach into the 1-2 inch range over the next couple of hours. Further south, storms in east-central WY to far western NE continue to propagate into a plume of richer low-level moisture (dewpoints in the low to mid 50s) where a regional SBCAPE maximum is noted (near 2000 J/kg). Continued low-level moisture advection coupled with increasing mid-level flow attendant to the upstream mid-level wave should further augment the convective environment over the next few hours. By the 22-00 UTC period, the highest SHIP values should reside from eastern WY into western NE, suggesting that the greatest potential for 2-3 inch hail may manifest across this region. ..Moore.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 41020409 41600441 42690516 43860632 44660688 44990684 45300658 45400596 45320544 44630469 43310368 42520320 41580272 41180270 41030280 40820328 40790367 40830389 41020409 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 1259 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1259 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern/central VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375... Valid 222034Z - 222200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters may pose an increasing risk for damaging winds across portions of northern and central Virginia over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters moving over the Blue Ridge Mountains and into northern/central VA may pose an increasing risk for damaging wind gusts the next 1-2 hours. These storms will continue tracking east/northeast into a hot airmass with steep 0-3 km lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km. Sufficient instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 30 kt effective shear magnitudes should support at least transient storm organization and some increase in intensity in the short term. ..Leitman.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38717862 38977780 39107696 39037667 38677663 38217684 37907707 37467759 37297868 37327878 37437899 37837913 38267904 38547890 38717862 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1260 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375... FOR SOUTHEAST PA INTO NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 1260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Areas affected...southeast PA into NJ Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375... Valid 222045Z - 222215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375 continues. SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorm risk increasing. Damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado could accompany this activity across far southeast Pennsylvania into southern New Jersey over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A supercell storm has developed across southeast PA this afternoon within a favorably sheared and unstable environment. Surface observations indicate potential outflow oriented west to east across the area from earlier storms. While the downstream airmass itself will support a severe risk, if this supercell can maintain organization and interact with this outflow boundary (where 0-1 km SRH would be enhanced), an increasing risk for a tornado also could occur in addition to damaging wind and isolated hail. An additional storm approaching northern DE also will be moving into a more favorable airmass supporting strong to damaging wind gusts over the next hour. ..Leitman.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40387566 40357472 40097417 39627405 39407438 39387486 39437597 39687630 40257601 40387566 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1261 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Areas affected...Central North Carolina into Southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222150Z - 222345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A loosely organized line of thunderstorms is moving eastward into portions of central North Carolina/southern Virginia. Damaging straight-line winds -- especially along any bowing segments or with interacting outflows -- will be possible through this evening. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized line of thunderstorms in western North Carolina and portions of southwestern Virginia will continue to move east through the late afternoon and into the early evening. Strong daytime heating has resulted in surface temperatures reaching the low-to-mid 90s F, and proximity RAP soundings show a deep and well-mixed boundary layer with LCLs exceeding 1800 meters. As a result, DCAPE values exceed 1200 J/kg ahead of these storms and should support strong downdrafts. Though current VAD wind profiles from Roanoke and Wakefield show small, disorganized hodographs, mesoanalysis shows around 30 kts of effective layer shear that will support continued loose organization with eastward extent. Given the 30 kts of deep-layer shear and strong DCAPE, sustained and strong downdrafts could produce 55-70 MPH winds through the early evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered to cover this threat. ..Halbert.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 35948181 36108133 36438096 36768080 37108055 37258021 37247977 37267896 37107814 36927780 36497774 35947830 35567919 35318017 35208094 35308149 35548181 35718184 35948181 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0378 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more