SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe
outflow gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible
Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas.
...Southern Plains Sunday afternoon/night...
Within the broader pattern of a Great Lakes trough and Intermountain
ridge, an embedded shortwave trough now over the northern Rockies
will progress southeastward to KS/OK by Sunday afternoon. In the
wake of this shortwave trough and a separate northern stream wave
over the Great Lakes, a surface cold front will move southeastward
across OK/TX. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12z across OK in
the vicinity of the front. There will be some potential for the
overnight convection in OK to continue east-southeastward during the
day into AR/northern LA into MS with the threat for at least
isolated wind damage and large hail.
Additional storm development is likely along the front Sunday
afternoon from the Edwards Plateau into north TX, with the northern
extent of development modulated by morning convection and associated
convective outflow. Convective inhibition will diminish by
early-mid afternoon and MLCAPE will increase to 2500-3000 J/kg as
surface heating (temperatures of 85-90 F) drives deep mixing beneath
an elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km.
Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the open warm sector, with
modest shear enhancement expected along the front and/or lingering
convective outflows in the vicinity of the Red River. Somewhat
discrete convection may occur initially with some supercell
potential, which will drive the potential for isolated very large
hail. The potential for severe outflow gusts will increase with
upscale growth, given the steep lapse rate environment. Storms will
likely reach the TX coast and deep South TX by early Monday morning.
...FL Sunday afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating across the FL peninsula will likely support
sea breeze thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. The more
probable zone for development will be skewed to the central
peninsula and Atlantic coast given a westerly component to the
low-midlevel flow. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail
will be the main threats.
..Thompson.. 05/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe
outflow gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible
Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas.
...Southern Plains Sunday afternoon/night...
Within the broader pattern of a Great Lakes trough and Intermountain
ridge, an embedded shortwave trough now over the northern Rockies
will progress southeastward to KS/OK by Sunday afternoon. In the
wake of this shortwave trough and a separate northern stream wave
over the Great Lakes, a surface cold front will move southeastward
across OK/TX. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12z across OK in
the vicinity of the front. There will be some potential for the
overnight convection in OK to continue east-southeastward during the
day into AR/northern LA into MS with the threat for at least
isolated wind damage and large hail.
Additional storm development is likely along the front Sunday
afternoon from the Edwards Plateau into north TX, with the northern
extent of development modulated by morning convection and associated
convective outflow. Convective inhibition will diminish by
early-mid afternoon and MLCAPE will increase to 2500-3000 J/kg as
surface heating (temperatures of 85-90 F) drives deep mixing beneath
an elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km.
Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the open warm sector, with
modest shear enhancement expected along the front and/or lingering
convective outflows in the vicinity of the Red River. Somewhat
discrete convection may occur initially with some supercell
potential, which will drive the potential for isolated very large
hail. The potential for severe outflow gusts will increase with
upscale growth, given the steep lapse rate environment. Storms will
likely reach the TX coast and deep South TX by early Monday morning.
...FL Sunday afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating across the FL peninsula will likely support
sea breeze thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening. The more
probable zone for development will be skewed to the central
peninsula and Atlantic coast given a westerly component to the
low-midlevel flow. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail
will be the main threats.
..Thompson.. 05/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible
for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through
tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across
portions of the Gulf Coast states, central High Plains, Great Lakes,
and Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern/Central Plains...
High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across
southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses
southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While
low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool
temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a
risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the
more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward
across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and
evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat.
Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High
Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from
OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward
extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will
extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon
heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and
moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline
across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may
initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few
supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail
appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level
moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early
evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late
evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread
southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early
Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat
may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment.
...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will
continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this
evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved
offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to
the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level
airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This
coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft
organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds
with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast
states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has
reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk
for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this
convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore,
the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update.
...Great Lakes...
Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front
will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the
period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s
surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from
southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong
mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse
rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms
that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for
at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any
marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment
appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at
this time.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains
fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained
surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the
eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger
thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where
weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible
for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through
tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across
portions of the Gulf Coast states, central High Plains, Great Lakes,
and Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern/Central Plains...
High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across
southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses
southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While
low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool
temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a
risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the
more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward
across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and
evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat.
Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High
Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from
OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward
extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will
extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon
heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and
moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline
across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may
initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few
supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail
appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level
moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early
evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late
evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread
southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early
Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat
may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment.
...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will
continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this
evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved
offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to
the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level
airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This
coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft
organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds
with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast
states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has
reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk
for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this
convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore,
the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update.
...Great Lakes...
Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front
will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the
period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s
surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from
southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong
mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse
rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms
that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for
at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any
marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment
appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at
this time.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains
fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained
surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the
eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger
thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where
weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible
for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through
tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across
portions of the Gulf Coast states, central High Plains, Great Lakes,
and Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern/Central Plains...
High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across
southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses
southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While
low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool
temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a
risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the
more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward
across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and
evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat.
Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High
Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from
OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward
extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will
extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon
heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and
moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline
across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may
initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few
supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail
appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level
moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early
evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late
evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread
southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early
Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat
may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment.
...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will
continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this
evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved
offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to
the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level
airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This
coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft
organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds
with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast
states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has
reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk
for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this
convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore,
the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update.
...Great Lakes...
Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front
will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the
period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s
surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from
southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong
mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse
rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms
that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for
at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any
marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment
appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at
this time.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains
fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained
surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the
eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger
thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where
weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible
for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through
tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across
portions of the Gulf Coast states, central High Plains, Great Lakes,
and Mid-Atlantic.
...Southern/Central Plains...
High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across
southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses
southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While
low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool
temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a
risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the
more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward
across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and
evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat.
Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High
Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from
OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward
extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will
extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon
heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and
moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline
across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may
initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few
supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail
appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level
moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early
evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late
evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread
southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early
Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat
may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment.
...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will
continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this
evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved
offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to
the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level
airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This
coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft
organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds
with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast
states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has
reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk
for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this
convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore,
the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update.
...Great Lakes...
Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front
will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the
period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s
surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from
southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong
mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse
rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms
that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for
at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any
marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment
appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at
this time.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains
fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained
surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the
eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger
thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where
weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear.
..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/09/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...Northern Plains...
Existing elevated fire weather highlights over much of western ND
were expanded southward towards the ND/SD border based on latest
short term forecast guidance. Sustained northwest winds of 15-20 mph
in a modestly dry (RH between 20-30% by this afternoon) post-frontal
environment should yield several hours of elevated fire weather
conditions for far northeastern MT and much of western ND southward
to the ND/SD border. Fuels remain very dry and supportive of
wildfire growth, despite the cooler post-frontal air mass
infiltrating into the Northern Plains. Otherwise, the forecast
remains largely on track, please see previous discussion for more
details.
..Williams.. 05/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
Between a large-scale ridge over the West Coast and broad upper
troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, a belt of
enhanced deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread a dry
post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Over parts of
western/central ND, diurnal heating will result in a well-mixed
boundary layer with 20-30 percent RH amid 15-20 mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds. This overlap of modestly dry/breezy
conditions over critically dry/receptive fuels will favor elevated
fire-weather conditions. The Elevated highlights are generally
bounded by cooler temperatures/higher RH to the east, expected cloud
coverage to the west (accompanying a passing shortwave trough), and
a band of ongoing precipitation across southern ND.
Farther west, areas of dry/windy conditions are expected across
parts of the Great Basin into the Southwest. While locally elevated
conditions will be possible, fuels are generally unsupportive of
large fires at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...Northern Plains...
Existing elevated fire weather highlights over much of western ND
were expanded southward towards the ND/SD border based on latest
short term forecast guidance. Sustained northwest winds of 15-20 mph
in a modestly dry (RH between 20-30% by this afternoon) post-frontal
environment should yield several hours of elevated fire weather
conditions for far northeastern MT and much of western ND southward
to the ND/SD border. Fuels remain very dry and supportive of
wildfire growth, despite the cooler post-frontal air mass
infiltrating into the Northern Plains. Otherwise, the forecast
remains largely on track, please see previous discussion for more
details.
..Williams.. 05/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
Between a large-scale ridge over the West Coast and broad upper
troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, a belt of
enhanced deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread a dry
post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Over parts of
western/central ND, diurnal heating will result in a well-mixed
boundary layer with 20-30 percent RH amid 15-20 mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds. This overlap of modestly dry/breezy
conditions over critically dry/receptive fuels will favor elevated
fire-weather conditions. The Elevated highlights are generally
bounded by cooler temperatures/higher RH to the east, expected cloud
coverage to the west (accompanying a passing shortwave trough), and
a band of ongoing precipitation across southern ND.
Farther west, areas of dry/windy conditions are expected across
parts of the Great Basin into the Southwest. While locally elevated
conditions will be possible, fuels are generally unsupportive of
large fires at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...Northern Plains...
Existing elevated fire weather highlights over much of western ND
were expanded southward towards the ND/SD border based on latest
short term forecast guidance. Sustained northwest winds of 15-20 mph
in a modestly dry (RH between 20-30% by this afternoon) post-frontal
environment should yield several hours of elevated fire weather
conditions for far northeastern MT and much of western ND southward
to the ND/SD border. Fuels remain very dry and supportive of
wildfire growth, despite the cooler post-frontal air mass
infiltrating into the Northern Plains. Otherwise, the forecast
remains largely on track, please see previous discussion for more
details.
..Williams.. 05/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
Between a large-scale ridge over the West Coast and broad upper
troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, a belt of
enhanced deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread a dry
post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Over parts of
western/central ND, diurnal heating will result in a well-mixed
boundary layer with 20-30 percent RH amid 15-20 mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds. This overlap of modestly dry/breezy
conditions over critically dry/receptive fuels will favor elevated
fire-weather conditions. The Elevated highlights are generally
bounded by cooler temperatures/higher RH to the east, expected cloud
coverage to the west (accompanying a passing shortwave trough), and
a band of ongoing precipitation across southern ND.
Farther west, areas of dry/windy conditions are expected across
parts of the Great Basin into the Southwest. While locally elevated
conditions will be possible, fuels are generally unsupportive of
large fires at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 091700Z - 101200Z
...Northern Plains...
Existing elevated fire weather highlights over much of western ND
were expanded southward towards the ND/SD border based on latest
short term forecast guidance. Sustained northwest winds of 15-20 mph
in a modestly dry (RH between 20-30% by this afternoon) post-frontal
environment should yield several hours of elevated fire weather
conditions for far northeastern MT and much of western ND southward
to the ND/SD border. Fuels remain very dry and supportive of
wildfire growth, despite the cooler post-frontal air mass
infiltrating into the Northern Plains. Otherwise, the forecast
remains largely on track, please see previous discussion for more
details.
..Williams.. 05/09/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/
...Synopsis...
Between a large-scale ridge over the West Coast and broad upper
troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS, a belt of
enhanced deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread a dry
post-frontal air mass over the northern Plains. Over parts of
western/central ND, diurnal heating will result in a well-mixed
boundary layer with 20-30 percent RH amid 15-20 mph sustained
northwesterly surface winds. This overlap of modestly dry/breezy
conditions over critically dry/receptive fuels will favor elevated
fire-weather conditions. The Elevated highlights are generally
bounded by cooler temperatures/higher RH to the east, expected cloud
coverage to the west (accompanying a passing shortwave trough), and
a band of ongoing precipitation across southern ND.
Farther west, areas of dry/windy conditions are expected across
parts of the Great Basin into the Southwest. While locally elevated
conditions will be possible, fuels are generally unsupportive of
large fires at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are
possible in parts of western into central Oklahoma Saturday
afternoon and evening. Sparser large hail and damaging wind
occurrences are possible across the Gulf Coast states, the northern
and central High Plains, the Great Lakes, and possibly mid-Atlantic.
...Plains...
A flat upper ridge will be present today over the southwest states
and southern Rockies, while stronger flow aloft extends from the
northern Rockies into the mid MS Valley and eastern states. The
cold front that triggered convection over OK on Friday has stalled
over north TX and will slowly return northward through the day
today. Despite relatively weak low-level winds, dewpoints will
climb through the 50s across western OK leading to an axis of
moderate CAPE by late afternoon. Strong heating along/behind a
diffuse dryline will likely lead to isolated thunderstorm
development. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer
shear will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail.
Given the weak forcing aloft, storm coverage is likely to be rather
sparse through the evening. But those storms that can persist will
be in a progressively more moist and sheared environment that could
support the risk of a tornado or two.
Elsewhere farther north, steep low and mid-level lapse rates will
promote a risk of scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms
capable of gusty winds and hail from eastern WY/CO into western
NE/KS.
...Gulf Coast...
Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over parts of
LA/MS/AL. This activity will persist through the day and spread
eastward. Limited heating and rather weak shear profiles will limit
the overall severe threat. But nevertheless a few storms may
occasionally become intense - capable of gusty/damaging winds and
hail.
...Lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic...
A large upper trough will track from Ontario into Quebec today,
while the associated cold front sweeps southeastward across the
lower Great Lakes region. Sufficient instability is forecast to
support a line of thunderstorms forming over Lakes Erie/Ontario and
spreading into parts of OH/PA/NY this evening. Gusty winds and
small hail are expected, with a few reports of severe wind/hail
possible.
A corridor of moderate surface heating will extend from central VA
into NJ today, helping to destabilize this region and lead to widely
scattered afternoon thunderstorms. CAM solutions suggest the storms
that form will struggle to organize/intensify, but there will be
sufficient CAPE/shear to support some risk of a damaging wind gust
or two through early evening.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/09/2026
Read more
MD 0679 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0679
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Areas affected...Portions of East Texas into northern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 090621Z - 090815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Occasional marginally severe storms are possible and could
produce isolated large hail and damaging winds. A watch is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...Convection continues across parts of East
Texas/northern Louisiana. This is being driven by the passing
trough. Lift from this feature should persist a few more hours
before sliding eastward. Steep mid-level lapse rates (7 C/km) were
sampled by the 00Z SHV sounding. This, coupled with modest effective
shear and mid/upper 60s F dewpoints, will foster storms that may
occasionally intensify to severe levels. Isolated large hail and
damaging winds would be possible. The overall threat is expected to
remain disorganized and sporadic.
..Wendt/Hart.. 05/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...
LAT...LON 32149481 32569488 32999398 33029248 32999201 32899165
32449148 31999160 31659330 31669423 31739460 32149481
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gust
appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west and
central Texas east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower
Mississippi Valley. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and
severe wind gusts above 70 mph will be possible across parts of
west-central, central and north Texas.
...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A positively-tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move
southeastward into the southern Plains on Sunday. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southward across an area from west and north
Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. To the south of the front, surface
dewpoints will be mostly in the 65 to 70 F range, which will
contribute to moderate destabilization by afternoon. Surface-based
convective initiation is expected around midday, as surface warming
takes place and low-level convergence increases near the front.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop, with a
large complex of storms moving southeastward across north and
central Texas during the afternoon.
South of the front over much of the southern Plains, model forecasts
increase MLCAPE into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range by afternoon. Also,
850-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be between 7.5 and 8 C/km
ahead of the front. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40
knot range, will be favorable for semi-discrete supercells with
large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible in areas that destabilize the most, particularly across
parts of west-central and north-central Texas. In addition, 0-3 km
lapse rates are forecast to become very steep, exceeding 9 C/km in
some areas. As cells increase in coverage and merge during the mid
to late afternoon, MCS development will be possible. The very steep
low-level lapse rates will support a wind-damage threat. If a cold
pool can organize, then the wind-damage threat would likely increase
during the late afternoon, and wind gusts above 70 mph would be
possible.
Further east-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi
Valley, convective coverage is expected to be a bit more widely
spaced. The environment will be characterized by moderate deep-layer
shear and sufficient instability for a severe threat. Damaging wind
gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats.
...Southeast...
A very moist airmass will be in place on Sunday from the central
Gulf Coast states eastward to the Atlantic. Surface dewpoints will
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, with moderate instability
developing by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be
limited, convergence boundaries appear likely to develop inland from
the coastal areas during the afternoon. Storms that can form along
these favored zones may have potential for isolated severe wind
gusts, mainly due to precipitation loading.
..Broyles.. 05/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are
possible in parts of western into central Oklahoma Saturday
afternoon and evening. Sparser large hail and damaging wind
occurrences are possible across the Gulf Coast states, the northern
and central High Plains, the Great Lakes, and possibly mid-Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
A broad, cyclonic flow regime is forecast across much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies through the forecast period. A number of
embedded vorticity maxima moving through that large-scale pattern
will potentially aid in strong to severe storm development. The
first of which will track from the northern Rockies into the central
High Plains by Saturday evening. A stronger disturbance will be
attended by mid/upper-level jet streaks while progressing through
the Great Lakes region on Saturday. Additional, weaker disturbances
will traverse the Gulf Coast states and mid-Atlantic region.
At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes
disturbance will sweep east across that region during the day with
the trailing extension of the front advancing south into central
High Plains. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along
the front in northwest KS Saturday afternoon with a pre-frontal
trough/dryline extending south from the low through the eastern
OK/TX Panhandles into west-central TX. Elsewhere, a front stretching
from south TX through the shelf waters of the northern Gulf into
north FL as of late evening will attempt to lift north as a warm
front. The advance of the boundary across the central and eastern
Gulf Coast may be impeded by early-day thunderstorms moving through
those areas.
...Western and Central Oklahoma into Northwest Texas...
The cold front that has pushed into the southern Plains this evening
is expected to wash out with initially modest moisture return
expected ahead of the trough/dryline with dewpoints increasing
through the 50s Saturday afternoon over the far eastern OK/TX
Panhandles into western OK. The moisture increase combined with
steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support an initially narrow
axis of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by mid/late afternoon.
While large-scale forcing for ascent will remain negligible through
the peak of the diurnal heating cycle, strong heating west of the
dryline and resultant deepening circulations along it are expected
to yield isolated to widely scattered, high-based storms by late
afternoon into early evening. 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear will
support supercell storm modes with large to very large hail being
the predominant hazard.
Considerable strengthening of the low-level jet is forecast across
western and central OK Saturday evening, which will enhance
low-level shear and the influx of greater, boundary-layer moisture
content. There is some model variability in the degree of evening
moistening that occurs, with the RAP remaining notably drier than
the NAM. Should the NAM scenario be closer to correct, tornado
potential would increase during the evening with any sustained
supercells from western into central OK. An 5% unconditional
probability and conditional-intensity group 1 have been added to
account for that possibility.
...Gulf Coast...
Clusters of thunderstorms or a quasi-linear MCS is expected to be
ongoing at 12z Saturday over the lower MS Valley, aided by a
low-level warm/moist advection regime. Forecast soundings suggest
that activity may be slightly elevated atop a shallow, near-surface
inversion and rooted within a moist environment with MUCAPE upwards
of 1500 J/kg. The 00z convection-allowing models suggest that
activity will continue south/southeast and potentially become more
surface-based across the central and eastern Gulf Coast from late
morning into afternoon. Generally weak low/mid-level lapse rates are
expected to limit updraft intensity, despite the presence of 40-50
kt effective bulk shear. Nonetheless, the potential will exist for
marginally severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts,
especially if a cold pool can organize.
...Great Lakes...
The pre-frontal air mass is not expected to be overly moist on
Saturday with dewpoints largely in the upper 40s to low 50s.
However, steepening low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to yield
a modestly unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of around 500
J/kg. The destabilization process will coincide with gradually
veering low-level winds, which will tend to limit the magnitude of
low-level and deep-layer shear.
Forcing for ascent associated with the short-wave trough mentioned
in the synopsis coupled with convergence/lift along the front are
expected to foster a broken band of thunderstorms initially across
eastern lower MI by early afternoon. Additional storms are expected
to form farther south along the front in northern OH with the
convective band rapidly moving east into portions of western NY and
northwest PA by late afternoon or early evening. Cold temperatures
aloft will favor isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail.
Locally strong wind gusts will also be possible during the afternoon
and early evening hours.
...Central Wyoming into southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas...
Increasing height falls/forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave
trough moving out of the northern Rockies will overspread a
steep-lapse-rate, but limited-moisture environment Saturday
afternoon, fostering the development of widely scattered, high-based
storms. The presence of 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will
support some storm organization with the potential for isolated
occurrences of large hail and locally damaging winds during the
afternoon and evening hours.
...Mid-Atlantic States...
A couple weak disturbances traversing the lower Great Lakes and
central Appalachians are expected to contribute an area of showers
across portions of PA and southern NY into New England Saturday
morning into early afternoon. Weak destabilization on the southern
fringe of that cloud canopy may support isolated thunderstorm
development during the afternoon from the DE River Valley into parts
of MD amidst a weakly unstable environment with MLCAPE of only a few
hundred J/kg. Both low-level and deep-layer shear will be relatively
strong, and the potential will exist for isolated severe weather, on
the condition that sufficient instability develops to sustain
surface-based thunderstorms.
..Mead/Weinman.. 05/09/2026
Read more
WW 0193 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 193
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ADM TO
10 SSW FTW.
..WENDT..05/09/26
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 193
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC237-363-367-429-497-503-090640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JACK PALO PINTO PARKER
STEPHENS WISE YOUNG
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 193 SEVERE TSTM TX 090205Z - 090700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
905 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North Texas
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 905 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms currently across far southern
Oklahoma will continue to spread south-southeastward into North
Texas through late evening and the early overnight, with additional
development eastward toward northeast Texas.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30
statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of
Sherman TX to 45 miles east southeast of Sherman TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 192...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
31025.
...Guyer
Read more
MD 0663 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 189... FOR SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0663
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Areas affected...southern MS into south AL...southwest GA...and the
FL Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 189...
Valid 070638Z - 070815Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189 continues.
SUMMARY...A tornado and damaging-wind threat will continue
overnight. Eventual downstream watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Despite the presence of very rich low-level moisture,
moderate buoyancy, and strong deep-layer flow/shear, convection has
become rather disorganized early this morning across southern MS/AL
into southwest GA. This is likely due to gradually increasing MLCINH
and generally poor low-level lapse rates related to the deep, moist
boundary layer. However, favorable low-level moisture transport and
upper jet dynamics will continue to sustain convection through the
overnight, with most guidance depicting renewed strengthening of
850-700 mb flow.
While a cluster mode may be maintained through the overnight hours,
strong effective shear (50+ kt) will remain favorable for embedded
supercells and/or small bowing segments, if there is any uptick in
storm intensity. 0-1 km SRH will conditionally support tornadoes
along/ahead of the composite outflow/front that will continue to
move southeastward with time. Strong low/midlevel flow will also
support damaging-wind potential, especially if any stronger cold
pools can become established. Isolated hail also cannot be ruled out
with the strongest updrafts.
With some preconvective moistening and destabilization expected into
parts of southeast AL/southwest GA and the FL Panhandle, eventual
downstream watch issuance is considered likely.
..Dean/Mosier.. 05/07/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31198915 31868672 32358431 32308379 31908354 31288357
30918442 30558627 30228791 30188891 30428919 30718922
31198915
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of southern Kansas into northwestern and central
Oklahoma.
...KS/OK...
A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies to
the Lower MS Valley on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will
develop in response to the approaching trough in the vicinity of the
TX Panhandle. A dryline will extend southward from the low across
west TX while a warm front extends from far southern KS into
northern/central AR. Gulf moisture will spread northward across OK
to far southern KS and isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop by 00z. A cold front will eventually dive southward across
the central/southern Plains during the nighttime hours, but the
timing of this feature is still uncertain.
The warm sector is expected to be somewhat narrow across southern KS
and OK. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft will foster steep
midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg will be
possible. Boundary layer moisture will be somewhat limited,
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Strong heating will allow for
deep mixing, and forecast soundings indicate any storms that develop
will likely be higher-based. Effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt
will support organized convection posing a risk for hail and
damaging wind gusts.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of southern Kansas into northwestern and central
Oklahoma.
...KS/OK...
A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies to
the Lower MS Valley on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will
develop in response to the approaching trough in the vicinity of the
TX Panhandle. A dryline will extend southward from the low across
west TX while a warm front extends from far southern KS into
northern/central AR. Gulf moisture will spread northward across OK
to far southern KS and isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop by 00z. A cold front will eventually dive southward across
the central/southern Plains during the nighttime hours, but the
timing of this feature is still uncertain.
The warm sector is expected to be somewhat narrow across southern KS
and OK. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft will foster steep
midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg will be
possible. Boundary layer moisture will be somewhat limited,
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Strong heating will allow for
deep mixing, and forecast soundings indicate any storms that develop
will likely be higher-based. Effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt
will support organized convection posing a risk for hail and
damaging wind gusts.
..Leitman.. 05/07/2026
Read more
