SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Synopsis...
A sub-tropical moisture plume will continue to progress eastward
across the Interior West today. This feature will provide a focus
for both wet and dry thunderstorms from southeastern ID though the
western half of CO and northwest NM into northeast AZ and the
eastern 2/3 of UT. On the western fringe of this potential
thunderstorm activity, mid-level west/southwest flow will combine
with drier air, leading to a well-mixed boundary layer. Farther
north, closer to the incoming trough over the Pacific Northwest, a
cold front will tighten the surface pressure gradient leading to
southwest flow over dry fuels there.
...Great Basin, Southwest, and central Rockies...
Thunderstorm coverage, particularly over western CO, will likely be
greater than what occurred on Wednesday with slightly less
precipitable water available as moisture progresses farther inland.
However, given overnight rainfall and fuels becoming slightly less
dry, lightning ignition efficiency is likely to decrease going into
today across many of the areas covered by the Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm risk. Thus, the less favorable fuel conditions will
balance the somewhat more favorable atmospheric environment and
preclude any areas of potentially scattered dry thunderstorms. Given
the slightly drier vertical profiles and remaining sub-cloud dry
layer, any storms that do form will have potential for gusty outflow
winds. (See the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for additional
details.) Additionally, pyrocumulus development remains highly
possible with pyrocumulonimbus not out of the question if fire
activity can provide sufficient surface heating.
Over much of eastern NV and portions of western UT, southwest flow
aloft over hotter and drier surface conditions will lead to Elevated
wind/RH conditions. In this region, expect winds to be southwest to
westerly at 15-20 mph amid minimum RHs ranging from 10-20 percent.
...Pacific Northwest...
Farther northwest over WA and portions of OR east of the Cascades,
west to southwest flow will promote strong downslope winds and dry
conditions. Southwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph will
combine with 10-15% RH to support Elevated fire weather concerns
there as well. A cold front will push through the Columbia Basin
this evening into the overnight hours, bringing increased
precipitation chances and cooler temperatures.
..Stearns.. 06/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO
THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible across the High Plains, southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma, and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. Additional
severe storms capable of damaging wind and isolated large hail will
also be possible across portions of the Northeast.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northwest CONUS on Friday
as ridging builds across the Plains. A broad surface low will exist
from northwest Texas into Missouri along a frontal zone. A lee
cyclone will develop across the northern High Plains as the primary
trough starts to eject over the northern Rockies. This will result
in strengthening southerly flow across the Plains and
destabilization from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and
perhaps far southeast Montana.
...High Plains...
Weak to moderate destabilization is forecast across the High Plains
as dewpoints increase into the 60s during the afternoon. Slight
height rises may limit storm coverage somewhat, but as storms form
across the terrain Friday afternoon/evening, the environment
downstream should support these storms continuing. Some storm
organization and transient rotating updrafts are possible from
northeast Colorado into eastern Wyoming, but only modest effective
shear (around 25 knots) should limit overall storm intensity
somewhat. Nonetheless, some large hail and severe wind threat is
possible.
...Central/southern Plains to the Ohio Valley...
Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across
Missouri and into southern Illinois and Indiana. These storms should
weaken as the move east of the greatest instability by late morning.
In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong destabilization is
expected. This should prove sufficient for isolated to scattered
storm development along the remnant frontal zone/outflow boundary
during the afternoon/evening. Most guidance shows 35 to 40 knot
mid-level flow remaining across the region which should be
sufficient for supercell organization. In addition, a vorticity rich
environment will likely be present in the wake of morning storms. If
sufficient destabilization can occur within this airmass, some
tornado threat may exist.
Most notably, the NAM shows a more volatile scenario with a stronger
mid-level shortwave trough and a more defined surface low moving
along the boundary. This scenario appears to be a clear outlier
among 00Z guidance. However, it does represent the ceiling of this
potential scenario. While a marginal hail/wind/isolated tornado
threat seems like the most likely scenario, guidance will be
monitored closely for any hint of this more intense NAM solution.
...Northeast...
A line of storms will move through the Northeast Friday morning. In
the wake of these storms, some destabilization is expected ahead of
a cold front moving through the area. There is some uncertainty
about the degree of destabilization, but at least weak instability
is shown by most guidance. A strong mid-level jet streak across the
region (50+ knots) will provide long/straight hodographs. This will
support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts with the strongest storms.
..Bentley.. 06/25/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO
THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible across the High Plains, southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma, and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. Additional
severe storms capable of damaging wind and isolated large hail will
also be possible across portions of the Northeast.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northwest CONUS on Friday
as ridging builds across the Plains. A broad surface low will exist
from northwest Texas into Missouri along a frontal zone. A lee
cyclone will develop across the northern High Plains as the primary
trough starts to eject over the northern Rockies. This will result
in strengthening southerly flow across the Plains and
destabilization from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and
perhaps far southeast Montana.
...High Plains...
Weak to moderate destabilization is forecast across the High Plains
as dewpoints increase into the 60s during the afternoon. Slight
height rises may limit storm coverage somewhat, but as storms form
across the terrain Friday afternoon/evening, the environment
downstream should support these storms continuing. Some storm
organization and transient rotating updrafts are possible from
northeast Colorado into eastern Wyoming, but only modest effective
shear (around 25 knots) should limit overall storm intensity
somewhat. Nonetheless, some large hail and severe wind threat is
possible.
...Central/southern Plains to the Ohio Valley...
Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across
Missouri and into southern Illinois and Indiana. These storms should
weaken as the move east of the greatest instability by late morning.
In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong destabilization is
expected. This should prove sufficient for isolated to scattered
storm development along the remnant frontal zone/outflow boundary
during the afternoon/evening. Most guidance shows 35 to 40 knot
mid-level flow remaining across the region which should be
sufficient for supercell organization. In addition, a vorticity rich
environment will likely be present in the wake of morning storms. If
sufficient destabilization can occur within this airmass, some
tornado threat may exist.
Most notably, the NAM shows a more volatile scenario with a stronger
mid-level shortwave trough and a more defined surface low moving
along the boundary. This scenario appears to be a clear outlier
among 00Z guidance. However, it does represent the ceiling of this
potential scenario. While a marginal hail/wind/isolated tornado
threat seems like the most likely scenario, guidance will be
monitored closely for any hint of this more intense NAM solution.
...Northeast...
A line of storms will move through the Northeast Friday morning. In
the wake of these storms, some destabilization is expected ahead of
a cold front moving through the area. There is some uncertainty
about the degree of destabilization, but at least weak instability
is shown by most guidance. A strong mid-level jet streak across the
region (50+ knots) will provide long/straight hodographs. This will
support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind
gusts with the strongest storms.
..Bentley.. 06/25/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
One or two organizing clusters of storms, with potential to produce
strong to severe wind gusts, are possible across parts of the Texas
South Plains through central Great Plains late this afternoon into
tonight. Isolated strong storm development preceding this activity
across parts of north central Oklahoma into south central Kansas may
pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes by early this evening.
...Discussion...
The westerlies are undergoing amplification across the mid-latitude
Pacific. Later today into tonight, models indicate that this will
include digging large-scale mid-level troughing on its leading edge,
across and inland of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, it
appears that generally zonal flow will prevail across the northern
and central tier of the U.S., to the north of ridging in the
subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, mid-level troughing,
accompanied by an area of modest height falls within otherwise
rising heights, is forecast to turn eastward across the lower Great
Lakes vicinity. Upstream, initially stronger mid-level height falls
accompanying a short wave perturbation, and perhaps a notable
embedded mesoscale convective vortex, may be in the process of
overspreading the central Great Plains at the outset of the period,
before continuing toward the lower Missouri Valley, amidst weak to
modest larger-scale height rises late this afternoon through
tonight.
In lower levels, a broad weak surface low is forecast to migrate
across the lower Great Lakes, with a an ill-defined trailing influx
of cooler/drier air advancing a bit farther southward through the
central Great Plains, and southeast of the Upper Midwest through the
Great Lakes and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley. It appears
that surface troughing will deepen through the day to the lee of the
southern Rockies, as strong heating occurs beneath a remnant plume
of very warm elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great
Plains. Near the northern/northeastern periphery of this air mass,
a zone of strong differential heating may develop by late afternoon,
northeast of the Raton ridge into northern Oklahoma. This boundary
might be augmented by outflow from a cluster of storms now evolving
across northeastern Colorado into western Kansas. It appears that
this boundary may retreat northward into portions of southern Kansas
and Missouri tonight.
...Parts of southern/central Great Plains...
The potential convective evolution for today remains unclear, and
severe weather potential will considerably be impacted by
sub-synoptic developments, which remain unclear. This includes the
subsequent evolution of the cluster of storms now propagating into
northwestern Kansas, and another forming across the Texas Panhandle
vicinity. However, guidance generally suggests that low-level
convergence and destabilization within the lee surface trough across
the Panhandle vicinity into Texas South Plains may provide support
for widespread thunderstorm development by early this evening. And
the boundary across the central Great Plans, reinforced by early day
outflow and subsequent differential heating, may eventually become a
focus for increasing thunderstorm development this evening into the
overnight hours.
A deeply mixed boundary layer across the Panhandle/South Plains
vicinity may become unstable enough to support the risk for large
hail, in addition to damaging wind gusts late this afternoon into
evening.
Low-level convergence/warm advection along the zone of differential
surface heating might promote at least isolated supercell
development somewhere across north central Oklahoma into south
central Kansas, where a convectively augmented belt of westerly
mid-level flow may contribute to strong shear. If this occurs, this
may be accompanied by a period of increasing potential for a tornado
or two by early evening, near the nose of a strengthening southerly
850 mb jet, before evolving into an upscale growing cluster with
strong surface gusts becoming the primary potential hazard
overnight.
...Lower Great Lakes...
Convection allowing model output is still not providing a clear
signal for more than rather isolated pre-frontal strong to severe
thunderstorm development. However, strengthening westerly flow in
the 700-500 mb layer could become sufficient to support organized
convective development, including supercells, with sufficient
destabilization. Depending on model trends, it is still possible
that probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this
period.
...Parts of central and southern Wyoming...
Latest convection allowing guidance suggests that thermodynamic
profiles by this afternoon could become conducive to the evolution
of an organizing cluster of storms with potential to produce strong
to severe surface gusts, aided by forcing for ascent associated with
a short wave perturbation emerging from the northern intermountain
region.
..Kerr/Chalmers.. 06/25/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
One or two organizing clusters of storms, with potential to produce
strong to severe wind gusts, are possible across parts of the Texas
South Plains through central Great Plains late this afternoon into
tonight. Isolated strong storm development preceding this activity
across parts of north central Oklahoma into south central Kansas may
pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes by early this evening.
...Discussion...
The westerlies are undergoing amplification across the mid-latitude
Pacific. Later today into tonight, models indicate that this will
include digging large-scale mid-level troughing on its leading edge,
across and inland of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, it
appears that generally zonal flow will prevail across the northern
and central tier of the U.S., to the north of ridging in the
subtropical latitudes. Within this regime, mid-level troughing,
accompanied by an area of modest height falls within otherwise
rising heights, is forecast to turn eastward across the lower Great
Lakes vicinity. Upstream, initially stronger mid-level height falls
accompanying a short wave perturbation, and perhaps a notable
embedded mesoscale convective vortex, may be in the process of
overspreading the central Great Plains at the outset of the period,
before continuing toward the lower Missouri Valley, amidst weak to
modest larger-scale height rises late this afternoon through
tonight.
In lower levels, a broad weak surface low is forecast to migrate
across the lower Great Lakes, with a an ill-defined trailing influx
of cooler/drier air advancing a bit farther southward through the
central Great Plains, and southeast of the Upper Midwest through the
Great Lakes and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley. It appears
that surface troughing will deepen through the day to the lee of the
southern Rockies, as strong heating occurs beneath a remnant plume
of very warm elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great
Plains. Near the northern/northeastern periphery of this air mass,
a zone of strong differential heating may develop by late afternoon,
northeast of the Raton ridge into northern Oklahoma. This boundary
might be augmented by outflow from a cluster of storms now evolving
across northeastern Colorado into western Kansas. It appears that
this boundary may retreat northward into portions of southern Kansas
and Missouri tonight.
...Parts of southern/central Great Plains...
The potential convective evolution for today remains unclear, and
severe weather potential will considerably be impacted by
sub-synoptic developments, which remain unclear. This includes the
subsequent evolution of the cluster of storms now propagating into
northwestern Kansas, and another forming across the Texas Panhandle
vicinity. However, guidance generally suggests that low-level
convergence and destabilization within the lee surface trough across
the Panhandle vicinity into Texas South Plains may provide support
for widespread thunderstorm development by early this evening. And
the boundary across the central Great Plans, reinforced by early day
outflow and subsequent differential heating, may eventually become a
focus for increasing thunderstorm development this evening into the
overnight hours.
A deeply mixed boundary layer across the Panhandle/South Plains
vicinity may become unstable enough to support the risk for large
hail, in addition to damaging wind gusts late this afternoon into
evening.
Low-level convergence/warm advection along the zone of differential
surface heating might promote at least isolated supercell
development somewhere across north central Oklahoma into south
central Kansas, where a convectively augmented belt of westerly
mid-level flow may contribute to strong shear. If this occurs, this
may be accompanied by a period of increasing potential for a tornado
or two by early evening, near the nose of a strengthening southerly
850 mb jet, before evolving into an upscale growing cluster with
strong surface gusts becoming the primary potential hazard
overnight.
...Lower Great Lakes...
Convection allowing model output is still not providing a clear
signal for more than rather isolated pre-frontal strong to severe
thunderstorm development. However, strengthening westerly flow in
the 700-500 mb layer could become sufficient to support organized
convective development, including supercells, with sufficient
destabilization. Depending on model trends, it is still possible
that probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this
period.
...Parts of central and southern Wyoming...
Latest convection allowing guidance suggests that thermodynamic
profiles by this afternoon could become conducive to the evolution
of an organizing cluster of storms with potential to produce strong
to severe surface gusts, aided by forcing for ascent associated with
a short wave perturbation emerging from the northern intermountain
region.
..Kerr/Chalmers.. 06/25/2026
Read more
WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE PIA
TO 30 SE MMO TO 30 N VPZ.
..CHALMERS..06/25/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...GRB...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC091-105-250340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KANKAKEE LIVINGSTON
INC089-127-250340-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PORTER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 1295 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into northern Colorado and far
western Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 242020Z - 242215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely by late afternoon
for southeast Wyoming and into the Colorado Front Range. Watch
issuance will likely be needed as convection begins to intensify.
DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted along the northern CO Front
Range per recent GOES day cloud phase imagery with at least a couple
of early, but transient, attempts a initiation noted near Castle
Rock, CO and Cheyenne, WY. This activity is largely being driven by
orographic ascent on the northeastern fringe of the low/mid-level
thermal ridge in place from northern NM to northern CO where
mid-level lapse rates are fairly steep, but capping is somewhat
weaker. Additional attempts at initiation appear likely over the
next 1-2 hours based on satellite trends, but lingering inhibition
at lower elevation may preclude robust, self-sustained convection in
the near term. However, continued daytime heating of a very moist
air mass (dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s) will continue to erode
inhibition and increase the probability for successful initiation
either along the Front Range, off the Laramie Mountains, and/or
along a weak cold frontal boundary draped from western NE into
east-central WY. Latest CAM guidance and a recent ACARs sounding
from Denver, CO suggest temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s may
be required for this to occur.
Once deep convection can become established, it will mature within
an environment favorable for splitting supercells given very
elongated hodographs characterized by 50-60 knots of effective bulk
shear. Southeasterly low-level flow across WY and into northern
CO/western NE may support some tornado threat with any discrete
right-moving supercell, but the more probable hazard will be severe
gusts and very large hail - possibly as large as 2-4 inches in
diameter. Watch issuance is expected once sustained convection
becomes apparent.
..Moore/Guyer.. 06/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...
LAT...LON 39210538 39980535 40820552 41460599 42580666 42960673
43230660 43360628 43380584 43280526 43120472 42850409
42420376 41910349 40690316 40050308 39630316 39300342
39030387 38980429 38950501 38990527 39210538
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
Read more
WW 389 TORNADO CO NE WY 242150Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northeast Colorado
Nebraska Panhandle
East-Central and Southeast Wyoming
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM
until 1100 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop within the
very unstable and strongly sheared environment in place across the
region this afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions support
the potential for a few tornadoes within any mature supercells, with
very large hail up to 3.5" in diameter possible as well. Over time,
one or more bowing segments could materialize, with an attendant
risk for severe gusts up to 75 mph.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles southwest of Limon CO to 35
miles east northeast of Douglas WY. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 387...WW 388...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 29015.
...Mosier
Read more
WW 388 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 242055Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Colorado
Eastern New Mexico
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM
until 1000 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
across eastern New Mexico into southeast Colorado including near the
Raton Mesa and I-25/I-40 corridors. Large hail and some
severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards through
early/mid-evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of
Colorado Springs CO to 105 miles south southwest of Tucumcari NM.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 387...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Guyer
Read more
WW 0387 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ALO TO
25 ESE LSE TO 30 SW CWA TO 30 NW RHI.
..LEITMAN..06/24/26
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...GRB...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC007-011-015-037-063-073-085-089-093-097-099-103-105-111-141-
155-161-177-195-201-242140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
DE KALB GRUNDY HENRY
JO DAVIESS KANE KENDALL
LAKE LA SALLE LEE
LIVINGSTON MCHENRY OGLE
PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON
WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO
IAC031-043-045-055-061-097-105-139-163-242140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON
DELAWARE DUBUQUE JACKSON
JONES MUSCATINE SCOTT
Read more
WW 387 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MN WI 241855Z - 250300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Eastern Iowa
Northern Illinois
Southeast Minnesota
Wisconsin
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 155 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will further
develop through mid/late afternoon with bouts of severe hail and
damaging winds as the primary hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast
of Wausau WI to 35 miles east southeast of Moline IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Guyer
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN...HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the central High Plains, with a threat for
large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of
the Midwest and Great Basin.
...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. The ENH risk was expanded slightly southeastward
in southwestern NE. Here, diurnal heating amid lower 60s dewpoints
will yield a corridor of moderate surface-based buoyancy, which
combined with 50-60 kt of effective shear, will support the
potential for a couple intense supercells capable of producing very
large hail and severe gusts. The adjacent SLGT risk was also
expanded southeastward into south-central NE and north-central KS,
where upscale-growing clusters will pose a risk for severe wind
gusts with time.
The SLGT risk in eastern NM was expanded westward toward the higher
terrain, given the potential for initially discrete supercell
structures capable of producing large hail.
Finally, a CIG1 wind area was added over portions of the Great
Basin, where a deeply mixed boundary layer and increasing buoyancy
may support some gusts upwards of 75 mph.
..Weinman.. 06/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026/
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High
Plains today via low-level upslope flow, which should be most
focused/strongest across southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado, and
to a lesser extent, the Raton Mesa vicinity. As daytime heating
occurs and low-level clouds present this morning gradually erode,
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop by mid to late afternoon in
a narrow corridor across northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming.
This instability will also be aided by the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across much the region
as strong mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a
shortwave trough over the northern Plains overspreads the central
Rockies/High Plains. Accordingly, the highest convective coverage is
anticipated from east-central/southeast Wyoming into
northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy should be maximized.
Deep-layer shear will be rather strong, with values up to 50-60 kt.
These conditions will support the potential for intense supercells
capable of large to very large hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter
possible). Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could
support a couple of tornadoes in this region as well. Eventual
upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS capable of producing
severe winds is probable into eastern Colorado/western Kansas this
evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.
Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the
southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud
bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to
severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may
also occur.
...Midwest including portions of Wisconsin/northern Illinois...
A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread Wisconsin
and northern Illinois today as a weak shortwave trough moves across
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Seasonably
cool temperatures aloft will aid up to around 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating along/ahead of a weak cold
front. Current expectations are for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with moderate to locally
strong deep-layer shear providing support for updraft organization.
A mix of multicells and supercells should pose a threat for severe
hail and damaging winds, and possibly some tornado risk, as they
spread east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before
eventually weakening.
...Great Basin/Four Corners...
Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across
the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater
low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through
the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
east-northeastward from the lower Colorado River Valley across the
Great Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well
mixed with strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon,
with weak instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will
aid in northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists
for strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon
and early evening.
...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorms should increase/re-intensify regionally this
afternoon, aided by multiple MCVs interacting with a convectively
augmented front that extends northwest-southeastward regionally.
Deep-layer flow and related shear should remain rather modest.
Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores
that form, but the potential for more organized clusters is
uncertain. Influenced by prior/modifying outflow, at least a
conditional-type risk for supercell redevelopment later today is
most probable across portions of southern/eastern Oklahoma toward
the ArkLaTex.
...Florida...
After mostly clear skies this morning, cumulus field continues to
increase within a very moist air mass to the south of a front across
the northern Florida Peninsula, with low to mid 70s F warm-sector
surface dewpoints. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today,
cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support
the development of moderate to locally strong instability this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the interior Florida Peninsula and
Atlantic Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible
given steepened low-level lapse rates.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Elevated fire weather highlights were introduced across the Columbia
Basin in WA/OR. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread
the Pacific Northwest as an upper trough approaches the region,
promoting strong downslope winds and dry conditions. Atop cured
grasses and dry fuels, southwesterly sustained winds of 15-20 mph
will combine with 10-15% RH to support Elevated fire weather
concerns. A cold front will push through the Columbia Basin Thursday
evening into the overnight hours, bringing increased precipitation
chances and cooler temperatures.
Across the Four Corners and Great Basin, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
highlights were maintained. The introduction of a scattered dry
thunderstorm risk area was considered as thunderstorm coverage will
likely be greater than 40%. However, 40% coverage of purely dry
thunderstorms with less than 0.10" of precipitation is less certain,
precluding highlights. Lightning ignitions will pose a concern where
fuels remain dry across the CO Plateau into southwestern WY and far
eastern ID. Additionally, pyrocumulus development remains highly
possible with pyrocumulonimbus not out of the question if surface
heating from fire activity can maintain momentum. Strong/severe
outflow winds are also possible (see the SPC Day 2 Convective
Outlook), further exacerbating any new/ongoing fires. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
A sub-tropical moisture plume will continue shifting eastward across
the Interior West by Thursday, focusing both wet and dry
thunderstorm potential from southwestern WY through the Four Corners
region. Scattered to isolated high-based thunderstorms will initiate
across much of the drawn area on Day 2/Thursday afternoon. Depending
on location/elevation and antecedent conditions from the previous
day's convection, this activity will likely present as a mix of wet
and dry storms. Given a dry sub-cloud layer, supportive of
evaporation, the probability of new lightning ignitions over still
receptive fuels will remain at least moderate - especially in areas
that receive less or no rainfall from Day 1/Wednesday.
Simultaneously, farther west, an intensifying trough over the West
will interact with what's left of the ridge over the southwest to
bring dry southwest flow to the western Great Basin. This region
will see dry flow cut underneath the deeper Pacific moisture,
leading to Elevated fire weather conditions where winds will be
southwest to westerly at 15-20 mph amid minimum RHs ranging from
10-20 percent.
While this sub-tropical moisture will briefly temper the severe
dryness over the next couple of days, a much larger concern exists.
Any lightning holdover ignitions from storms today and tomorrow
could rapidly expand later this week. Forecast guidance continues to
show a major, seasonally abnormal trough arriving Friday into
Saturday, bringing widespread and significant critical fire weather
conditions with southwest winds gusting above 40 mph ahead of a
strong cold front.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...THE
OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible across the High Plains, southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma, and southern Missouri into northern
Arkansas/western Kentucky on Friday. Additional severe storms
capable of damaging wind will also be possible across portions of
the Northeastern US.
...Synopsis...
A strengthening mid-level trough will move inland across portions of
the Pacific Northwest on D3/Friday, with enhanced mid-level flow
spreading into the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Height
rises will occur across the High/central High Plains. A shortwave
trough will move across portions of the Northeast. A surface low
will move northward into Quebec with a trailing cold front extending
from the Northeastern US into the Ohio Valley and south and west
into the Southern Plains to a surface low across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles. Lee cyclogenesis is expected across the northern Plains
late in the period.
...High Plains...
Height rises are expecting amid building mid-level ridging across
the High Plains. As the trough deepens to the west across the
Pacific Northwest, strong southwesterly mid-level flow will
overspread the western portion of the ridge. Despite height rises, a
few isolated supercells may develop across portions of eastern
Montana into eastern Wyoming/Colorado, given moderate instability
and deep layer shear around 30-40 kts progged by late afternoon.
...Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and western
Ohio Valley...
Strong instability is forecast near the frontal boundary across
northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas Friday afternoon. Forcing for
ascent will remain somewhat weak, with some mid-level height rises
expected. However, it appears that thunderstorm activity will
develop along the front from southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma
spreading eastward into the Ozarks and perhaps the Ohio Valley by
late afternoon/evening. Guidance suggests that MLCIN will strengthen
south of the front across central Oklahoma into Arkansas, which will
likely limit convection to near and just south of the boundary.
Along the front, deep layer shear around 30-40 kts will support
organized storms and perhaps a few supercells capable of large hail
and damaging wind. As the low-level jet increases through the
afternoon/evening, thunderstorm coverage will likely increase with
some increase in potential for a tornado.
...Northeast...
As a surface low moves northward into Quebec Friday, a cold front
will shift south and eastward across the Northeastern US. Strong
upper-level westerly flow with thunderstorms developing along and
ahead of the cold front by the afternoon. A pocket of moderate
instability overlapping strong deep layer shear around 50 kts will
support a few organized severe storms capable of damaging wind.
..Thornton.. 06/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms
are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into
the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow will bring broad westerly flow aloft across much of the
central Rockies into the central/southern Plains D2/Thursday. Within
the broad upper-level flow, several perturbations will rotate across
the central/southern Plains. Further east, a more potent shortwave
trough with a band of enhanced westerly flow will move across the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Wisconsin
south and west into the central Plains shifting south and eastward
into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. A surface low will
deepen across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles through the evening.
...High Plains...
A shortwave trough moving out of Montana will bring forcing for
ascent and thunderstorm development by the afternoon across portions
of the High Plains. Guidance suggests that ahead of this feature,
widespread cloud cover will be in place across much of the
central/northern Rockies Thursday morning/early afternoon. This may
inhibit destabilization, especially with northern extent into
portions of eastern Montana/northern Colorado. Nonetheless, it
appears at least marginal instability will be achieved by late
afternoon through filtered daytime heating along and east of the
Rockies. This in combination with deep layer shear around 30-40 kts
will support organized clusters capable of damaging wind. Somewhat
better heating is expected across southeastern Colorado, where less
cloud cover is expected. Across this region, supercells will be
possible with potential for large hail and damaging wind.
...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks...
A quick moving shortwave trough will likely support potential for an
MCS/cluster of thunderstorms to be ongoing Thursday morning into
portions of northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas. The exact location of
this and resulting remnant outflow boundary placement will have a
large impact on afternoon severe potential. Model trends in the 12z
guidance have been to push this boundary further south into portions
of northern Oklahoma, with the best instability also being shunted
further south. Afternoon thunderstorm development should be centered
along the intersection of the remnant outflow/cold front from
southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Moderate instability and
deep layer shear around 30-45 kts will support supercells, with
storm motions likely to be along-boundary. There remains strong
signal that a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet will increase
into the evening across Oklahoma into southern Kansas. This in
combination with favorable along boundary storm motions will support
potential for tornadoes, a few of which could be strong. The main
uncertainty remains in the exact placement of the boundary relative
to the more favorable corridor of instability/low-level jet axis.
The 5% tornado area was shifted southward with this update to
account for recent trends. It is possible that if more confidence in
the placement of these features occurs, higher probabilities may be
needed. For now, confidence remains moderate in supercells
developing with potential for large to very large hail and damaging
wind.
...Portions of the Ohio Valley into southern New York...
Development is expected along the cold front from southern New York
into the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon as a jet streak moves across
the region with increasing forcing for ascent. Moderate instability
and strong deep layer shear ahead of this will support organized
storms and perhaps a few transient supercells with potential for
damaging wind and large hail. The Marginal Risk was expanded along
the front into portions of Indiana/southern Ohio/northern Kentucky
to account for this potential extending along the entirety of the
cold front.
...Northern Utah...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions
of Utah Thursday afternoon. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates are
expected with very dry near-surface conditions. Modest instability
will overlap with strong deep layer shear across northern Utah by
the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate large inverted-v profiles
and potential for severe winds. A Marginal Risk was added to the
area to account for this potential.
..Thornton.. 06/24/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 241700Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UTAH...
...Morning Update...
The ongoing forecast remains on track. Current surface observations
depict widespread RH values below 25% in parts of the Great Basin
and Southwest, with critical RH values of less than 15% (localized
single digits) in the upper CO Plateau. Meanwhile, a lifting
shortwave trough has encouraged scattered thundershowers to develop
across portions of the Southwest this morning. As mid-level moisture
advects northward via increasing southwesterly flow, additional
thunderstorm development is likely this afternoon and evening over
the Great Basin. Storms will initially remain dry, with deep
sub-cloud layers promoting evaporation thus decreasing precipitation
efficiency. However, as the low-levels begin to saturate, a
transition to a mixed wet/dry storm mode is expected to occur across
UT and the CO West Slope. Lightning ignitions are possible where dry
fuels exist. Strong/severe outflow winds are also a concern (see the
SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook), impacting any new/ongoing fires and
control efforts. See the previous discussion for more information,
and visit your weather service office at weather.gov for more
localized forecasts.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
...Central and Western Utah and the Interior West...
An upper-level shortwave trough entering the Great Basin will
trigger high-based showers and scattered dry thunderstorms today.
Thunderstorm activity will begin in southern Utah this morning
before spreading across the larger region as daytime heating
supports more widespread instability aided by topographic lift.
Critically dry fuels and sub-cloud dryness will at least initially
create an environment for lightning ignitions and potentially very
strong outflow winds. Precipitable water values will climb toward
1.0 inch by evening, transitioning storms from dry to a wet and dry
mix with a chance of localized wetting rains along the Interstate 15
corridor. However, gusty outflows will threaten active wildfires,
and pyrocumulus development remains highly possible with
pyrocumulonimbus not out of the question if surface heating from
fire activity can maintain momentum. Isolated dry thunderstorms with
quick storm motions of up to 30 mph and generally slightly drier
moisture profiles will also impact the Four Corners, eastern Great
Basin, Wyoming Basin, and the central Idaho and southwestern Montana
mountains.
...Northwestern Colorado, Northeastern Utah, and Southern Wyoming...
Ahead of this afternoon's incoming moisture plume, strong 45 to 50
knot mid-level flow will produce a window of elevated fire weather
conditions. Expect sustained west-southwest winds around 15 mph
paired with minimum relative humidity values down to 10 to 15
percent over dry fuels before humidity values begin increasing late
in the evening.
...Central and Eastern Nevada...
On the western flank of the aforementioned moisture plume and
coinciding with a mid-level shortwave trough, 25-35 knot mid-level
flow will be efficiently mixed down to the surface given the hot and
dry boundary layer. This will result in sustained west to southwest
winds around 15 mph paired with minimum relative humidity values
down to 10 to 15 percent.
While this sub-tropical moisture will briefly temper the severe
dryness over the next couple of days, a much larger concern exists.
Any lightning holdover ignitions from storms today and tomorrow
could rapidly expand later this week. Forecast guidance continues to
show a major, seasonally abnormal trough arriving Friday into
Saturday, bringing widespread and significant critical fire weather
conditions with southwest winds gusting above 40 mph ahead of a
strong cold front.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
