SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South. Additional strong storms are
possible across parts of the Northeast.
...Synopsis...
Upper troughing centered on the north-central U.S. will phase with
an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest on Tuesday. As this
occurs, strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will develop
across the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from
southern Lower MI to a surface low over central OK. A dryline will
extend southwestward from the central OK low into central/southwest
TX. The cold front is expected to develop east/southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from the Northeast to southern AR and
northern TX by Wednesday morning. Two areas of severe potential are
expected to be focused ahead of the surface cold front, one across
parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South and the second across
the Northeast.
...Southern Plains to the Mid-South...
Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward to
the east of the surface dryline and as far north as the MO Bootheel
vicinity. Some morning convection or cloud cover is expected across
parts of southern MO toward the MO/OH River confluence. Persistent
warm advection may result in scattered cloudiness across much of the
ArkLaTex and Ozarks vicinity as well. Nevertheless, modest cooling
aloft by late afternoon will aid in steepening midlevel lapse rates
atop the moist boundary layer, supporting MLCAPE in the 1000-2000
J/kg range. Instability will decrease with northeast extent into the
Mid-South. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. Convection may tend to
become linear more quickly across the Mid-South where shear vectors
are parallel to the surface boundary. Further south across parts of
AR into northeast TX closer to the surface triple point, low-level
flow may be less veered and shear vectors supporting initially
discrete cells. Any convection that can remain
semi-discrete/cellular will pose a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a tornado or two. With time, convection will evolve into
linear segments as a low-level jet increases and the front begins to
develop southeastward.
The risk is more conditional along the dryline with southwestward
extent across TX. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this area
and the main initiation mechanism will be mixing/dryline
circulations. If storms can develop, hail and strong gusts will be
possible.
...Northeast...
A shortwave upper trough over the Great Lakes will develop
east/northeast across Ontario and Quebec through the evening. Strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Northeast as this
occurs. Boundary layer moisture will be modest, with dewpoints
generally in the 40s to low 50s. However, cold temperatures aloft
will foster steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting modest
destabilization during the afternoon/evening (generally less than
1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Increasing large-scale ascent and the approach of
the surface boundary will result in isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development. Strong gusts will be the main risk with
storms given the strength of deep-layer flow and a well mixed
boundary layer. However, isolated hail also will be possible given
35+ kt effective shear and 500 mb temperatures near -18 C.
..Leitman.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday
afternoon into Monday night. A conditional threat for severe storms
with large to very large hail extends into portions of the
central/southern Plains.
...Synopsis...
Strengthening mid-level flow will move out of Canada today,
deepening the Eastern US trough, with a surface low developing
across Ontario and a cold front shifting south across the northern
Plains into the central Plains and Midwest. Across the west, flow
will strengthen in within a cutoff low just off the shore of
California before overspreading portions of the Southwest into the
Southern Plains. A surface low is expected to develop across Kansas,
with a dryline extending south into Oklahoma/north Texas. Areas of
strong to severe storms will be possible from the Midwest into
portions of eastern Kansas and south into Oklahoma/northern Texas.
...Eastern Kansas into Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorm development will likely be delayed until the late
afternoon/evening across eastern Kansas into Missouri owing to
strong MLCIN and generally weak forcing. Daytime heating and dew
points in the mid 50s to 60s should yield moderate MLCAPE across a
region from eastern Kansas northward into Missouri and western
Illinois. As the low-level jet increases into the evening with the
cold front shifting south, scattered thunderstorm development is
expected. Initially, strongly sheared profiles and steep lapse rates
will support supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind,
primarily across eastern Kansas. Through time as additional storms
develop and cluster along the front, the risk for damaging wind may
increase. A few CAM members suggest a few clusters/bowing segments
may move across northern Missouri and west-central Illinois, though
there is disagreement in location/timing. A corridor of higher wind
probabilities and upgrade to Slight may be warranted as details
become clearer.
...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...
Scattered thunderstorm development will continue further north into
the Great Lakes region along the cold front. Moisture becomes more
limited with northern extent which may limit the severe threat.
However, strong flow aloft and steep lapse rates may still support
downward mixing and swaths of strong to severe wind.
...South-central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A more conditional threat for storms will exist along the dryline
across southern Kansas into central Oklahoma and northern Texas.
Strong daytime heating is expected across this region along and
behind the dryline. Forecast sounding comparison indicates the
dryline circulation will be strong and deep through the afternoon.
Mid-level capping will likely inhibit convection until stronger flow
aloft overspreads the region by the late afternoon/evening. The
low-level jet will also strengthen at this time, with MLCIN eroding.
It is possible that an isolated supercell or two could develop and
produce large to very large hail (some 2+ inches). The best signal
for this is near the Red River in southern Oklahoma/northern Texas.
However, a few members do have development further north across
northern Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas.
..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday
afternoon into Monday night. A conditional threat for severe storms
with large to very large hail extends into portions of the
central/southern Plains.
...Synopsis...
Strengthening mid-level flow will move out of Canada today,
deepening the Eastern US trough, with a surface low developing
across Ontario and a cold front shifting south across the northern
Plains into the central Plains and Midwest. Across the west, flow
will strengthen in within a cutoff low just off the shore of
California before overspreading portions of the Southwest into the
Southern Plains. A surface low is expected to develop across Kansas,
with a dryline extending south into Oklahoma/north Texas. Areas of
strong to severe storms will be possible from the Midwest into
portions of eastern Kansas and south into Oklahoma/northern Texas.
...Eastern Kansas into Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorm development will likely be delayed until the late
afternoon/evening across eastern Kansas into Missouri owing to
strong MLCIN and generally weak forcing. Daytime heating and dew
points in the mid 50s to 60s should yield moderate MLCAPE across a
region from eastern Kansas northward into Missouri and western
Illinois. As the low-level jet increases into the evening with the
cold front shifting south, scattered thunderstorm development is
expected. Initially, strongly sheared profiles and steep lapse rates
will support supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind,
primarily across eastern Kansas. Through time as additional storms
develop and cluster along the front, the risk for damaging wind may
increase. A few CAM members suggest a few clusters/bowing segments
may move across northern Missouri and west-central Illinois, though
there is disagreement in location/timing. A corridor of higher wind
probabilities and upgrade to Slight may be warranted as details
become clearer.
...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...
Scattered thunderstorm development will continue further north into
the Great Lakes region along the cold front. Moisture becomes more
limited with northern extent which may limit the severe threat.
However, strong flow aloft and steep lapse rates may still support
downward mixing and swaths of strong to severe wind.
...South-central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A more conditional threat for storms will exist along the dryline
across southern Kansas into central Oklahoma and northern Texas.
Strong daytime heating is expected across this region along and
behind the dryline. Forecast sounding comparison indicates the
dryline circulation will be strong and deep through the afternoon.
Mid-level capping will likely inhibit convection until stronger flow
aloft overspreads the region by the late afternoon/evening. The
low-level jet will also strengthen at this time, with MLCIN eroding.
It is possible that an isolated supercell or two could develop and
produce large to very large hail (some 2+ inches). The best signal
for this is near the Red River in southern Oklahoma/northern Texas.
However, a few members do have development further north across
northern Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas.
..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/04/2026
Read more
MD 0637 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0849 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Areas affected...portions of western and central Missouri into
Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 040149Z - 040345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered high-based storms are expected to
develop this evening across parts of MO and IL. Very steep mid-level
lapse rates and moderate vertical shear could promote a few strong
to severe storms with hail and damaging gusts. A WW is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 0145 UTC, regional WV imagery showed mid-level
ascent associated with an upper-level shortwave trough that was
observed moving out of the northern Plains/Rockies into parts of the
central US near a slow-moving cold front. As mid-level ascent
continues eastward, it will overspread a warm and modestly moist air
mass along and south of the front. Temperatures in the 70s with
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s amid mid-level lapse rates of 8.5-9
C/km are supporting around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE (TOP RAOB). Strong
mid-level flow associated with the trough is also in place with
deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt.
Night time microphysics and IR imagery showed deepening ACCAS across
north-central MO and west-central IL associated with the cold front
and increased 850 mb low-level jet. Observational trends and CAM
guidance shows initially isolated high-based thunderstorm
development will likely increase in coverage this evening. Despite
limited buoyancy, the very steep lapse rates and strong vertical
shear may promote some organized supercell structures capable of
hail or damaging gusts.
Given the limited instability and more isolated nature of the severe
risk, a WW appears unlikely this evening. However convective trends
will be monitored.
..Lyons/Hart.. 05/04/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38069196 38169303 38759402 39209411 39819384 40259236
40399100 40208988 39938866 39308793 38788811 38398844
38088900 38058977 38009074 38069196
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible
this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central
Illinois.
...Synopsis...
Current surface observations and mesoanalysis show modest air mass
modification into central Missouri, where dew points are in the mid
to upper 40s near the I-70 corridor. Visible satellite has shown
some cumulus development over the last hour. A weak cold front
continues to slowly sag southward. Guidance suggests that isolated
thunderstorm development will be possible near this boundary this
evening over the next couple of hours with the increasing low-level
jet. These are expected to be elevated, rooted largely in the
850-700 mb layer, where some marginal instability with cooling
temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support a few instances
of hail and strong to severe wind.
Low top convection within a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse
rates across South Dakota and Nebraska continues to track eastward,
with a history of producing gusts 50-60 mph. These have been
generally weakening and moving into drier air. Occasional stronger
gusts may continue given the steep lapse rate environment.
..Thornton.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible
this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central
Illinois.
...Synopsis...
Current surface observations and mesoanalysis show modest air mass
modification into central Missouri, where dew points are in the mid
to upper 40s near the I-70 corridor. Visible satellite has shown
some cumulus development over the last hour. A weak cold front
continues to slowly sag southward. Guidance suggests that isolated
thunderstorm development will be possible near this boundary this
evening over the next couple of hours with the increasing low-level
jet. These are expected to be elevated, rooted largely in the
850-700 mb layer, where some marginal instability with cooling
temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support a few instances
of hail and strong to severe wind.
Low top convection within a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse
rates across South Dakota and Nebraska continues to track eastward,
with a history of producing gusts 50-60 mph. These have been
generally weakening and moving into drier air. Occasional stronger
gusts may continue given the steep lapse rate environment.
..Thornton.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible
this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central
Illinois.
...Synopsis...
Current surface observations and mesoanalysis show modest air mass
modification into central Missouri, where dew points are in the mid
to upper 40s near the I-70 corridor. Visible satellite has shown
some cumulus development over the last hour. A weak cold front
continues to slowly sag southward. Guidance suggests that isolated
thunderstorm development will be possible near this boundary this
evening over the next couple of hours with the increasing low-level
jet. These are expected to be elevated, rooted largely in the
850-700 mb layer, where some marginal instability with cooling
temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support a few instances
of hail and strong to severe wind.
Low top convection within a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse
rates across South Dakota and Nebraska continues to track eastward,
with a history of producing gusts 50-60 mph. These have been
generally weakening and moving into drier air. Occasional stronger
gusts may continue given the steep lapse rate environment.
..Thornton.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible
this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central
Illinois.
...Synopsis...
Current surface observations and mesoanalysis show modest air mass
modification into central Missouri, where dew points are in the mid
to upper 40s near the I-70 corridor. Visible satellite has shown
some cumulus development over the last hour. A weak cold front
continues to slowly sag southward. Guidance suggests that isolated
thunderstorm development will be possible near this boundary this
evening over the next couple of hours with the increasing low-level
jet. These are expected to be elevated, rooted largely in the
850-700 mb layer, where some marginal instability with cooling
temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support a few instances
of hail and strong to severe wind.
Low top convection within a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse
rates across South Dakota and Nebraska continues to track eastward,
with a history of producing gusts 50-60 mph. These have been
generally weakening and moving into drier air. Occasional stronger
gusts may continue given the steep lapse rate environment.
..Thornton.. 05/04/2026
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
An upper low will transition to an open wave as it traverses the
Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag
into the Midwest and Great Lakes region before merging with southern
stream troughing over the Mid-South on Day 4/Wednesday. However,
guidance has started to differ on the evolution of the upper wave
over the Southwest, one solution depicting an upper low to break off
and reside over northern Mexico through Day 6/Friday. Despite these
differences, the overall pattern should continue to provide chances
for precipitation across the central Plains and portions of the
Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, resulting in above normal temperatures
and dry conditions to prevail for much of the western CONUS through
the forecast period.
A deep upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes and an
approaching shortwave across the Mid-South should enhance dry
southwesterly flow on Day 3/Tuesday for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic, promoting widespread breezy conditions. However, an
ongoing transition to green up and recent appreciable rainfall
hinders a broader fire concern.
A cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Day
3/Tuesday, pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into
Central/West Texas as southwesterly flow aloft amplifies. On Day
4/Wednesday, the upper trough will migrate atop the southern Plains
and West TX as an area of surface convergence develops east of the
Front Range. This feature is expected to send a secondary cold front
through the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Wednesday, while downslope
westerly winds and a dry airmass persists over West TX. Recent
plentiful rainfall and marginal fuels precludes the introduction of
probabilities on both days.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
An upper low will transition to an open wave as it traverses the
Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag
into the Midwest and Great Lakes region before merging with southern
stream troughing over the Mid-South on Day 4/Wednesday. However,
guidance has started to differ on the evolution of the upper wave
over the Southwest, one solution depicting an upper low to break off
and reside over northern Mexico through Day 6/Friday. Despite these
differences, the overall pattern should continue to provide chances
for precipitation across the central Plains and portions of the
Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, resulting in above normal temperatures
and dry conditions to prevail for much of the western CONUS through
the forecast period.
A deep upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes and an
approaching shortwave across the Mid-South should enhance dry
southwesterly flow on Day 3/Tuesday for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic, promoting widespread breezy conditions. However, an
ongoing transition to green up and recent appreciable rainfall
hinders a broader fire concern.
A cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Day
3/Tuesday, pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into
Central/West Texas as southwesterly flow aloft amplifies. On Day
4/Wednesday, the upper trough will migrate atop the southern Plains
and West TX as an area of surface convergence develops east of the
Front Range. This feature is expected to send a secondary cold front
through the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Wednesday, while downslope
westerly winds and a dry airmass persists over West TX. Recent
plentiful rainfall and marginal fuels precludes the introduction of
probabilities on both days.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
An upper low will transition to an open wave as it traverses the
Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag
into the Midwest and Great Lakes region before merging with southern
stream troughing over the Mid-South on Day 4/Wednesday. However,
guidance has started to differ on the evolution of the upper wave
over the Southwest, one solution depicting an upper low to break off
and reside over northern Mexico through Day 6/Friday. Despite these
differences, the overall pattern should continue to provide chances
for precipitation across the central Plains and portions of the
Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, resulting in above normal temperatures
and dry conditions to prevail for much of the western CONUS through
the forecast period.
A deep upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes and an
approaching shortwave across the Mid-South should enhance dry
southwesterly flow on Day 3/Tuesday for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic, promoting widespread breezy conditions. However, an
ongoing transition to green up and recent appreciable rainfall
hinders a broader fire concern.
A cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Day
3/Tuesday, pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into
Central/West Texas as southwesterly flow aloft amplifies. On Day
4/Wednesday, the upper trough will migrate atop the southern Plains
and West TX as an area of surface convergence develops east of the
Front Range. This feature is expected to send a secondary cold front
through the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Wednesday, while downslope
westerly winds and a dry airmass persists over West TX. Recent
plentiful rainfall and marginal fuels precludes the introduction of
probabilities on both days.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
An upper low will transition to an open wave as it traverses the
Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag
into the Midwest and Great Lakes region before merging with southern
stream troughing over the Mid-South on Day 4/Wednesday. However,
guidance has started to differ on the evolution of the upper wave
over the Southwest, one solution depicting an upper low to break off
and reside over northern Mexico through Day 6/Friday. Despite these
differences, the overall pattern should continue to provide chances
for precipitation across the central Plains and portions of the
Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, resulting in above normal temperatures
and dry conditions to prevail for much of the western CONUS through
the forecast period.
A deep upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes and an
approaching shortwave across the Mid-South should enhance dry
southwesterly flow on Day 3/Tuesday for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic, promoting widespread breezy conditions. However, an
ongoing transition to green up and recent appreciable rainfall
hinders a broader fire concern.
A cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Day
3/Tuesday, pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into
Central/West Texas as southwesterly flow aloft amplifies. On Day
4/Wednesday, the upper trough will migrate atop the southern Plains
and West TX as an area of surface convergence develops east of the
Front Range. This feature is expected to send a secondary cold front
through the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Wednesday, while downslope
westerly winds and a dry airmass persists over West TX. Recent
plentiful rainfall and marginal fuels precludes the introduction of
probabilities on both days.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 111200Z
An upper low will transition to an open wave as it traverses the
Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag
into the Midwest and Great Lakes region before merging with southern
stream troughing over the Mid-South on Day 4/Wednesday. However,
guidance has started to differ on the evolution of the upper wave
over the Southwest, one solution depicting an upper low to break off
and reside over northern Mexico through Day 6/Friday. Despite these
differences, the overall pattern should continue to provide chances
for precipitation across the central Plains and portions of the
Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, resulting in above normal temperatures
and dry conditions to prevail for much of the western CONUS through
the forecast period.
A deep upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes and an
approaching shortwave across the Mid-South should enhance dry
southwesterly flow on Day 3/Tuesday for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic, promoting widespread breezy conditions. However, an
ongoing transition to green up and recent appreciable rainfall
hinders a broader fire concern.
A cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Day
3/Tuesday, pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into
Central/West Texas as southwesterly flow aloft amplifies. On Day
4/Wednesday, the upper trough will migrate atop the southern Plains
and West TX as an area of surface convergence develops east of the
Front Range. This feature is expected to send a secondary cold front
through the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Wednesday, while downslope
westerly winds and a dry airmass persists over West TX. Recent
plentiful rainfall and marginal fuels precludes the introduction of
probabilities on both days.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.
...Synopsis...
Broad troughing within northern parts of the CONUS will begin to
phase with the southwestern trough on Tuesday. A strong mid-level
jet will extend from the Southwest into the lower Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, a low pressure system initially in
eastern Oklahoma will lose definition through the period. A cold
front will extend from the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and
southern Oklahoma by the afternoon. A dryline will extend from the
surface low into central/southwest Texas.
...Southern Plains/Mid-South...
The surface low/triple point and the cold front will generally be
the main focus for convective development around late afternoon.
While front will have modest southward progress through the day, it
does appear that linear modes are more likely within the Mid-South
region. From southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, shear vectors
will have a more favorable orientation to the surface trough/dryline
and discrete storms are possible until the front pushes farther
south. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes would be possible
early in the convective cycle before a gradual transition to a
damaging wind threat occurs with upscale growth. The latest NAM
output has come in notably cooler than other guidance on account of
more substantial cloud cover and faster front progression. A minor
southeastward shift of severe probabilities was made to account for
lesser destabilization occurring with northward extent.
Along the dryline in North/Central Texas, storm initiation is much
less certain on account of weak large-scale ascent. Should a storm
develop, large hail and severe winds gusts would be possible given
steep lapse rates and long hodographs.
..Wendt.. 05/03/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.
...Synopsis...
Broad troughing within northern parts of the CONUS will begin to
phase with the southwestern trough on Tuesday. A strong mid-level
jet will extend from the Southwest into the lower Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, a low pressure system initially in
eastern Oklahoma will lose definition through the period. A cold
front will extend from the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and
southern Oklahoma by the afternoon. A dryline will extend from the
surface low into central/southwest Texas.
...Southern Plains/Mid-South...
The surface low/triple point and the cold front will generally be
the main focus for convective development around late afternoon.
While front will have modest southward progress through the day, it
does appear that linear modes are more likely within the Mid-South
region. From southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, shear vectors
will have a more favorable orientation to the surface trough/dryline
and discrete storms are possible until the front pushes farther
south. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes would be possible
early in the convective cycle before a gradual transition to a
damaging wind threat occurs with upscale growth. The latest NAM
output has come in notably cooler than other guidance on account of
more substantial cloud cover and faster front progression. A minor
southeastward shift of severe probabilities was made to account for
lesser destabilization occurring with northward extent.
Along the dryline in North/Central Texas, storm initiation is much
less certain on account of weak large-scale ascent. Should a storm
develop, large hail and severe winds gusts would be possible given
steep lapse rates and long hodographs.
..Wendt.. 05/03/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.
...Synopsis...
Broad troughing within northern parts of the CONUS will begin to
phase with the southwestern trough on Tuesday. A strong mid-level
jet will extend from the Southwest into the lower Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, a low pressure system initially in
eastern Oklahoma will lose definition through the period. A cold
front will extend from the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and
southern Oklahoma by the afternoon. A dryline will extend from the
surface low into central/southwest Texas.
...Southern Plains/Mid-South...
The surface low/triple point and the cold front will generally be
the main focus for convective development around late afternoon.
While front will have modest southward progress through the day, it
does appear that linear modes are more likely within the Mid-South
region. From southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, shear vectors
will have a more favorable orientation to the surface trough/dryline
and discrete storms are possible until the front pushes farther
south. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes would be possible
early in the convective cycle before a gradual transition to a
damaging wind threat occurs with upscale growth. The latest NAM
output has come in notably cooler than other guidance on account of
more substantial cloud cover and faster front progression. A minor
southeastward shift of severe probabilities was made to account for
lesser destabilization occurring with northward extent.
Along the dryline in North/Central Texas, storm initiation is much
less certain on account of weak large-scale ascent. Should a storm
develop, large hail and severe winds gusts would be possible given
steep lapse rates and long hodographs.
..Wendt.. 05/03/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.
...Synopsis...
Broad troughing within northern parts of the CONUS will begin to
phase with the southwestern trough on Tuesday. A strong mid-level
jet will extend from the Southwest into the lower Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, a low pressure system initially in
eastern Oklahoma will lose definition through the period. A cold
front will extend from the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and
southern Oklahoma by the afternoon. A dryline will extend from the
surface low into central/southwest Texas.
...Southern Plains/Mid-South...
The surface low/triple point and the cold front will generally be
the main focus for convective development around late afternoon.
While front will have modest southward progress through the day, it
does appear that linear modes are more likely within the Mid-South
region. From southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, shear vectors
will have a more favorable orientation to the surface trough/dryline
and discrete storms are possible until the front pushes farther
south. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes would be possible
early in the convective cycle before a gradual transition to a
damaging wind threat occurs with upscale growth. The latest NAM
output has come in notably cooler than other guidance on account of
more substantial cloud cover and faster front progression. A minor
southeastward shift of severe probabilities was made to account for
lesser destabilization occurring with northward extent.
Along the dryline in North/Central Texas, storm initiation is much
less certain on account of weak large-scale ascent. Should a storm
develop, large hail and severe winds gusts would be possible given
steep lapse rates and long hodographs.
..Wendt.. 05/03/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible
mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into
south-central Illinois.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 05/03/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/
...Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois...
Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur
north-northeastward into the region along and south of a
decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level
moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the
airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However,
toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling
boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development
this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb,
and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse
rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the
presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer.
...Far South Florida...
While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon,
cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along
with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to
limit storm intensity inland.
...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper
low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture
and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid
moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small
hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during
the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe
storm potential is expected to remain low.
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