Storm Prediction Center

WW 0372 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 372 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW LTS TO 5 NE FSI TO 40 SE OKC TO 45 S CQB TO 25 SSE CQB TO 35 WNW BVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248 ..GLEASON..06/22/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 372 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-023-029-031-033-037-049-051-061-063-067-069-077- 085-087-091-095-099-101-105-107-111-113-117-121-123-125-127-131- 133-137-143-145-147-220940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHOCTAW COAL COMANCHE COTTON CREEK GARVIN GRADY HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. ...Synopsis... Persistent moderate to strong mid-level west-northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast across the central High Plains on Wednesday. The surface pattern will be rather nebulous with a weak surface low in the Midwest and high pressure in its wake across the Plains. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks... An ongoing MCS at the beginning of the period may have some severe risk through the morning hours across Oklahoma/southern Kansas and into the Ozarks. Expect this MCS to weaken by mid-day as the low-level jet weakens and it outruns the stronger mid-level flow. High pressure across the Plains will result in strengthening upslope flow across the central High Plains. Strong instability is forecast from northeast New Mexico to southeast Wyoming beneath the moderate to strong mid-level flow. This environment will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. For now have kept the threat mostly confined to the High Plains where the supercell threat is most likely. The low-level jet response across the Plains is not that strong Wednesday night and thus, upscale growth into an MCS is unclear. If a MCS becomes more likely, the Slight Risk would need to be expanded eastward in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. ...Synopsis... Persistent moderate to strong mid-level west-northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast across the central High Plains on Wednesday. The surface pattern will be rather nebulous with a weak surface low in the Midwest and high pressure in its wake across the Plains. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks... An ongoing MCS at the beginning of the period may have some severe risk through the morning hours across Oklahoma/southern Kansas and into the Ozarks. Expect this MCS to weaken by mid-day as the low-level jet weakens and it outruns the stronger mid-level flow. High pressure across the Plains will result in strengthening upslope flow across the central High Plains. Strong instability is forecast from northeast New Mexico to southeast Wyoming beneath the moderate to strong mid-level flow. This environment will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. For now have kept the threat mostly confined to the High Plains where the supercell threat is most likely. The low-level jet response across the Plains is not that strong Wednesday night and thus, upscale growth into an MCS is unclear. If a MCS becomes more likely, the Slight Risk would need to be expanded eastward in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. ...Synopsis... Persistent moderate to strong mid-level west-northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast across the central High Plains on Wednesday. The surface pattern will be rather nebulous with a weak surface low in the Midwest and high pressure in its wake across the Plains. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks... An ongoing MCS at the beginning of the period may have some severe risk through the morning hours across Oklahoma/southern Kansas and into the Ozarks. Expect this MCS to weaken by mid-day as the low-level jet weakens and it outruns the stronger mid-level flow. High pressure across the Plains will result in strengthening upslope flow across the central High Plains. Strong instability is forecast from northeast New Mexico to southeast Wyoming beneath the moderate to strong mid-level flow. This environment will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. For now have kept the threat mostly confined to the High Plains where the supercell threat is most likely. The low-level jet response across the Plains is not that strong Wednesday night and thus, upscale growth into an MCS is unclear. If a MCS becomes more likely, the Slight Risk would need to be expanded eastward in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. ...Synopsis... Persistent moderate to strong mid-level west-northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast across the central High Plains on Wednesday. The surface pattern will be rather nebulous with a weak surface low in the Midwest and high pressure in its wake across the Plains. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks... An ongoing MCS at the beginning of the period may have some severe risk through the morning hours across Oklahoma/southern Kansas and into the Ozarks. Expect this MCS to weaken by mid-day as the low-level jet weakens and it outruns the stronger mid-level flow. High pressure across the Plains will result in strengthening upslope flow across the central High Plains. Strong instability is forecast from northeast New Mexico to southeast Wyoming beneath the moderate to strong mid-level flow. This environment will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. For now have kept the threat mostly confined to the High Plains where the supercell threat is most likely. The low-level jet response across the Plains is not that strong Wednesday night and thus, upscale growth into an MCS is unclear. If a MCS becomes more likely, the Slight Risk would need to be expanded eastward in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central High Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail. ...Synopsis... Persistent moderate to strong mid-level west-northwesterly mid-level flow is forecast across the central High Plains on Wednesday. The surface pattern will be rather nebulous with a weak surface low in the Midwest and high pressure in its wake across the Plains. ...Central High Plains to the Ozarks... An ongoing MCS at the beginning of the period may have some severe risk through the morning hours across Oklahoma/southern Kansas and into the Ozarks. Expect this MCS to weaken by mid-day as the low-level jet weakens and it outruns the stronger mid-level flow. High pressure across the Plains will result in strengthening upslope flow across the central High Plains. Strong instability is forecast from northeast New Mexico to southeast Wyoming beneath the moderate to strong mid-level flow. This environment will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. For now have kept the threat mostly confined to the High Plains where the supercell threat is most likely. The low-level jet response across the Plains is not that strong Wednesday night and thus, upscale growth into an MCS is unclear. If a MCS becomes more likely, the Slight Risk would need to be expanded eastward in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 06/22/2026 Read more

WW 0372 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 372 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BUNTING..06/22/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 372 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-033-037-039-049- 051-061-063-067-069-073-075-077-081-083-085-087-091-095-099-101- 105-107-109-111-113-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-133-137-143- 145-147-149-220840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CREEK CUSTER GARVIN GRADY HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LATIMER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS ROGERS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON WASHITA Read more

MD 1248 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of central and southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372... Valid 220630Z - 220830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372 continues. SUMMARY...An intense bow echo will continue moving rapidly southeast across central Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma City metro, and into south-central Oklahoma through 3:30 am CDT. Significant severe wind gusts, with peak winds between 85 and 100 mph, are likely. DISCUSSION...An intense bow echo, with a well-organized rear-inflow jet, continues moving rapidly southeast at around 45 mph, with a history of significant severe gusts exceeding 100 mph. The environment downstream of this convective system remains supportive of a continued significant severe wind event, with a very moist air mass contributing to MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and moderate west/northwest mid-level flow. Latest hi-res guidance supports the scenario of an intense bowing complex moving through central Oklahoma through 3:30 am CDT/0830z, with some increase in the lateral extent of the strong winds as the cold pool expands. In addition to widespread severe winds, the environment will continue to support short-lived leading edge circulations and an attendant tornado risk. ..Bunting.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35399850 35559831 35789786 36159759 36139741 35779655 35459625 34879617 34529659 34489702 34519755 34789810 35069838 35319858 35399850 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1246 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372... FOR NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Areas affected...northwest into central OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372... Valid 220434Z - 220630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372 continues. SUMMARY...An intense bow echo and rear inflow jet will be capable of 80-100 mph gusts, potentially as far southeast as the OKC metro. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a mature and intense bow echo and associated rear inflow jet over northwest OK late this evening. The airmass ahead of this is very unstable with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Ample mid to high-level northwesterly flow and a very moisture-rich boundary layer will favor further intensification and maintenance of this bow echo southeastward into central OK. Recent HRRR models runs are congruent with this overall convective evolution. Peak gusts of 80-100 mph are forecast with the bow echo. Mesovortices within the line will also focus intense wind swaths and perhaps yield a brief tornado or two. ..Smith.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 35509847 36219958 36489909 36919883 36339754 35949724 35499747 35399789 35509847 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over southern Canada will shift into the northern Plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast. ...Central High Plains into the Central/Southern Plains... As mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies, a lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado and result in strengthening upslope flow. Moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone. This instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow, will result in a supercell environment. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing MCS across western Kansas and potentially northern Oklahoma should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early overnight hours. ...Portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Nebraska into southeast South Dakota on the nose of a modest low-level jet. These storms could pose some large hail threat. Additional storms may develop along the front during the afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting factor. Extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some pockets of greater destabilization are possible. Within these areas, a threat for isolated large hail may exist. ...Southeast... A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. Poor lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. However, as the event gets closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over southern Canada will shift into the northern Plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast. ...Central High Plains into the Central/Southern Plains... As mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies, a lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado and result in strengthening upslope flow. Moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone. This instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow, will result in a supercell environment. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing MCS across western Kansas and potentially northern Oklahoma should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early overnight hours. ...Portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Nebraska into southeast South Dakota on the nose of a modest low-level jet. These storms could pose some large hail threat. Additional storms may develop along the front during the afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting factor. Extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some pockets of greater destabilization are possible. Within these areas, a threat for isolated large hail may exist. ...Southeast... A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. Poor lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. However, as the event gets closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over southern Canada will shift into the northern Plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast. ...Central High Plains into the Central/Southern Plains... As mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies, a lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado and result in strengthening upslope flow. Moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone. This instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow, will result in a supercell environment. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing MCS across western Kansas and potentially northern Oklahoma should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early overnight hours. ...Portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Nebraska into southeast South Dakota on the nose of a modest low-level jet. These storms could pose some large hail threat. Additional storms may develop along the front during the afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting factor. Extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some pockets of greater destabilization are possible. Within these areas, a threat for isolated large hail may exist. ...Southeast... A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. Poor lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. However, as the event gets closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over southern Canada will shift into the northern Plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast. ...Central High Plains into the Central/Southern Plains... As mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies, a lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado and result in strengthening upslope flow. Moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone. This instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow, will result in a supercell environment. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing MCS across western Kansas and potentially northern Oklahoma should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early overnight hours. ...Portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Nebraska into southeast South Dakota on the nose of a modest low-level jet. These storms could pose some large hail threat. Additional storms may develop along the front during the afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting factor. Extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some pockets of greater destabilization are possible. Within these areas, a threat for isolated large hail may exist. ...Southeast... A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. Poor lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. However, as the event gets closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over southern Canada will shift into the northern Plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast. ...Central High Plains into the Central/Southern Plains... As mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies, a lee cyclone will develop across eastern Colorado and result in strengthening upslope flow. Moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone. This instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow, will result in a supercell environment. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Eventual upscale growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing MCS across western Kansas and potentially northern Oklahoma should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early overnight hours. ...Portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Nebraska into southeast South Dakota on the nose of a modest low-level jet. These storms could pose some large hail threat. Additional storms may develop along the front during the afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting factor. Extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some pockets of greater destabilization are possible. Within these areas, a threat for isolated large hail may exist. ...Southeast... A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. Poor lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. However, as the event gets closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted. ..Bentley.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Atlantic into the Mid-South... A midlevel shortwave trough, including the remnant of a prominent MCV, is forecast to move from parts of the Upper OH Valley toward the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later today. While most guidance suggests some dampening of this shortwave trough with time, some flow enhancement will persist within the 850-500 mb layer in the wake of this shortwave across parts of the Mid Atlantic and central/southern Appalachians. Scattered storm development is expected by early/mid afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable environment. Initial development is expected to evolve into forward propagating storm clusters with a threat of damaging winds through the afternoon into the early evening. As convection intercepts a northward-moving warm front across the Mid Atlantic, locally backed flow may support development of at least transient supercells, with some tornado potential. Farther southwest, an MCV is expected to emerge from a morning MCS over the southern Plains and move eastward toward the Mid-South region through the afternoon. As this MCV moves through a very warm/moist and moderately buoyant environment, storm development is expected both along the MCV track, and also in the wake of the MCV along a trailing cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest cells/clusters. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of low-level shear/SRH enhancement associated with the MCV, but some tornado potential could also evolve through the afternoon into early evening. ...Central/northern High Plains... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for supercells with large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Modest upscale growth cannot be ruled out during the evening, though most guidance does not depict organized MCS development at this time. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region... The remnant of a vigorous MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some severe threat could accompany this system at the beginning of the period, though a general weakening trend is expected through the morning. Isolated redevelopment will be possible along the remnant outflow into early evening, with an increase in storm coverage expected late tonight. Localized wind damage could accompany any of this redevelopment, though generally modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit a more organized severe threat. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Atlantic into the Mid-South... A midlevel shortwave trough, including the remnant of a prominent MCV, is forecast to move from parts of the Upper OH Valley toward the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later today. While most guidance suggests some dampening of this shortwave trough with time, some flow enhancement will persist within the 850-500 mb layer in the wake of this shortwave across parts of the Mid Atlantic and central/southern Appalachians. Scattered storm development is expected by early/mid afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable environment. Initial development is expected to evolve into forward propagating storm clusters with a threat of damaging winds through the afternoon into the early evening. As convection intercepts a northward-moving warm front across the Mid Atlantic, locally backed flow may support development of at least transient supercells, with some tornado potential. Farther southwest, an MCV is expected to emerge from a morning MCS over the southern Plains and move eastward toward the Mid-South region through the afternoon. As this MCV moves through a very warm/moist and moderately buoyant environment, storm development is expected both along the MCV track, and also in the wake of the MCV along a trailing cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest cells/clusters. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of low-level shear/SRH enhancement associated with the MCV, but some tornado potential could also evolve through the afternoon into early evening. ...Central/northern High Plains... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for supercells with large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Modest upscale growth cannot be ruled out during the evening, though most guidance does not depict organized MCS development at this time. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region... The remnant of a vigorous MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some severe threat could accompany this system at the beginning of the period, though a general weakening trend is expected through the morning. Isolated redevelopment will be possible along the remnant outflow into early evening, with an increase in storm coverage expected late tonight. Localized wind damage could accompany any of this redevelopment, though generally modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit a more organized severe threat. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Atlantic into the Mid-South... A midlevel shortwave trough, including the remnant of a prominent MCV, is forecast to move from parts of the Upper OH Valley toward the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later today. While most guidance suggests some dampening of this shortwave trough with time, some flow enhancement will persist within the 850-500 mb layer in the wake of this shortwave across parts of the Mid Atlantic and central/southern Appalachians. Scattered storm development is expected by early/mid afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable environment. Initial development is expected to evolve into forward propagating storm clusters with a threat of damaging winds through the afternoon into the early evening. As convection intercepts a northward-moving warm front across the Mid Atlantic, locally backed flow may support development of at least transient supercells, with some tornado potential. Farther southwest, an MCV is expected to emerge from a morning MCS over the southern Plains and move eastward toward the Mid-South region through the afternoon. As this MCV moves through a very warm/moist and moderately buoyant environment, storm development is expected both along the MCV track, and also in the wake of the MCV along a trailing cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest cells/clusters. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of low-level shear/SRH enhancement associated with the MCV, but some tornado potential could also evolve through the afternoon into early evening. ...Central/northern High Plains... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for supercells with large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Modest upscale growth cannot be ruled out during the evening, though most guidance does not depict organized MCS development at this time. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region... The remnant of a vigorous MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some severe threat could accompany this system at the beginning of the period, though a general weakening trend is expected through the morning. Isolated redevelopment will be possible along the remnant outflow into early evening, with an increase in storm coverage expected late tonight. Localized wind damage could accompany any of this redevelopment, though generally modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit a more organized severe threat. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Atlantic into the Mid-South... A midlevel shortwave trough, including the remnant of a prominent MCV, is forecast to move from parts of the Upper OH Valley toward the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later today. While most guidance suggests some dampening of this shortwave trough with time, some flow enhancement will persist within the 850-500 mb layer in the wake of this shortwave across parts of the Mid Atlantic and central/southern Appalachians. Scattered storm development is expected by early/mid afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable environment. Initial development is expected to evolve into forward propagating storm clusters with a threat of damaging winds through the afternoon into the early evening. As convection intercepts a northward-moving warm front across the Mid Atlantic, locally backed flow may support development of at least transient supercells, with some tornado potential. Farther southwest, an MCV is expected to emerge from a morning MCS over the southern Plains and move eastward toward the Mid-South region through the afternoon. As this MCV moves through a very warm/moist and moderately buoyant environment, storm development is expected both along the MCV track, and also in the wake of the MCV along a trailing cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest cells/clusters. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of low-level shear/SRH enhancement associated with the MCV, but some tornado potential could also evolve through the afternoon into early evening. ...Central/northern High Plains... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for supercells with large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Modest upscale growth cannot be ruled out during the evening, though most guidance does not depict organized MCS development at this time. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region... The remnant of a vigorous MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some severe threat could accompany this system at the beginning of the period, though a general weakening trend is expected through the morning. Isolated redevelopment will be possible along the remnant outflow into early evening, with an increase in storm coverage expected late tonight. Localized wind damage could accompany any of this redevelopment, though generally modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit a more organized severe threat. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Widely scattered severe storms are expected across the northern and central High Plains, with more isolated severe weather possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Mid Atlantic into the Mid-South... A midlevel shortwave trough, including the remnant of a prominent MCV, is forecast to move from parts of the Upper OH Valley toward the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later today. While most guidance suggests some dampening of this shortwave trough with time, some flow enhancement will persist within the 850-500 mb layer in the wake of this shortwave across parts of the Mid Atlantic and central/southern Appalachians. Scattered storm development is expected by early/mid afternoon within a moist and moderately unstable environment. Initial development is expected to evolve into forward propagating storm clusters with a threat of damaging winds through the afternoon into the early evening. As convection intercepts a northward-moving warm front across the Mid Atlantic, locally backed flow may support development of at least transient supercells, with some tornado potential. Farther southwest, an MCV is expected to emerge from a morning MCS over the southern Plains and move eastward toward the Mid-South region through the afternoon. As this MCV moves through a very warm/moist and moderately buoyant environment, storm development is expected both along the MCV track, and also in the wake of the MCV along a trailing cold front. Damaging winds will be possible with the strongest cells/clusters. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of low-level shear/SRH enhancement associated with the MCV, but some tornado potential could also evolve through the afternoon into early evening. ...Central/northern High Plains... Scattered storm development is expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for supercells with large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado or two. Modest upscale growth cannot be ruled out during the evening, though most guidance does not depict organized MCS development at this time. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex region... The remnant of a vigorous MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some severe threat could accompany this system at the beginning of the period, though a general weakening trend is expected through the morning. Isolated redevelopment will be possible along the remnant outflow into early evening, with an increase in storm coverage expected late tonight. Localized wind damage could accompany any of this redevelopment, though generally modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit a more organized severe threat. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 Read more

MD 1245 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 365...370... FOR FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1245 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Areas affected...far southern Indiana into portions of northern Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 365...370... Valid 220421Z - 220615Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 365, 370 continues. SUMMARY...A trio of supercell thunderstorms continue to move east across the area. The overall environment will support a continued severe threat, including tornadoes, in the near term, with a gradual decrease in tornado potential as they storms move east into an increasingly unfavorable environment. DISCUSSION...A trio of supercells continue across the region, including one supercell with a confirmed tornado near Boonville, IN, around 1044 PM CDT. This tornado occurred with the western most supercell in an environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3 km SRH around 450 m2/s2 (per KVXW VAD). These supercells will move east through the night on the southern periphery of a remnant MCV moving across Indiana into Ohio. As they moves east, they should move into an increasingly stable atmosphere owing to widespread stratiform rain from earlier convection (objectively analyzed MLCAPE falls to less than 250 J/kg across eastern portions of northern Kentucky). Thus, given the ongoing supercells, the tornado threat will continue in the near term, especially across portions of southwest Indiana along and adjacent portions of northern Kentucky. Isolated large hail to around 1" may be possible, along with gusty thunderstorm winds. However, as the supercells move farther east and into a more stable environment, the overall tornado/severe threat should diminish with time. ..Marsh.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...PAH... LAT...LON 37888798 38218745 38328612 38268506 38228442 38078404 37848399 37708519 37648637 37718731 37888798 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more