Storm Prediction Center

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/ ...Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois... Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur north-northeastward into the region along and south of a decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However, toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb, and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Far South Florida... While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon, cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to limit storm intensity inland. ...Northern California/southwest Oregon... Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe storm potential is expected to remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/ ...Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois... Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur north-northeastward into the region along and south of a decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However, toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb, and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Far South Florida... While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon, cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to limit storm intensity inland. ...Northern California/southwest Oregon... Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe storm potential is expected to remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/ ...Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois... Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur north-northeastward into the region along and south of a decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However, toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb, and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Far South Florida... While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon, cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to limit storm intensity inland. ...Northern California/southwest Oregon... Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe storm potential is expected to remain low. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Afternoon Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Between a mid-level closed low over central Ontario and surface high pressure off the Carolinas coastline, tightened surface pressure gradients will enhance dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic. Surface RH values will decrease to 25-35 percent with widespread gusts of 20-25 mph for a few hours, promoting localized fire weather concerns where sporadic dry fuels may exist. However, increasing daytime cloud cover, recent rainfall, and marginal fuels preclude the introduction of fire weather highlights. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will continue over the US Monday as the cut off low over the Southwest merges with a strengthening sub tropical jet stream. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of the southern Plains supporting elevated fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Dry westerly flow is expected over parts of the southern Plains Monday as the southern stream upper trough begins to move into the Southwest. The deepening lee low will support strong west/southwest surface winds across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. Warm temperatures and dry downslope westerly winds of 15-20 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels, exacerbated by drying from the previous day. This should support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions west of a developing dryline. ...Northern Plains/Midwest... Gusty post-frontal winds are likely Monday across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud cover suggest weaker mixing and higher RH. Still, some pockets of drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in pockets of dry fuels given stronger northwest winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Afternoon Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Between a mid-level closed low over central Ontario and surface high pressure off the Carolinas coastline, tightened surface pressure gradients will enhance dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic. Surface RH values will decrease to 25-35 percent with widespread gusts of 20-25 mph for a few hours, promoting localized fire weather concerns where sporadic dry fuels may exist. However, increasing daytime cloud cover, recent rainfall, and marginal fuels preclude the introduction of fire weather highlights. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will continue over the US Monday as the cut off low over the Southwest merges with a strengthening sub tropical jet stream. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of the southern Plains supporting elevated fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Dry westerly flow is expected over parts of the southern Plains Monday as the southern stream upper trough begins to move into the Southwest. The deepening lee low will support strong west/southwest surface winds across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. Warm temperatures and dry downslope westerly winds of 15-20 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels, exacerbated by drying from the previous day. This should support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions west of a developing dryline. ...Northern Plains/Midwest... Gusty post-frontal winds are likely Monday across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud cover suggest weaker mixing and higher RH. Still, some pockets of drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in pockets of dry fuels given stronger northwest winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Afternoon Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Between a mid-level closed low over central Ontario and surface high pressure off the Carolinas coastline, tightened surface pressure gradients will enhance dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic. Surface RH values will decrease to 25-35 percent with widespread gusts of 20-25 mph for a few hours, promoting localized fire weather concerns where sporadic dry fuels may exist. However, increasing daytime cloud cover, recent rainfall, and marginal fuels preclude the introduction of fire weather highlights. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will continue over the US Monday as the cut off low over the Southwest merges with a strengthening sub tropical jet stream. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of the southern Plains supporting elevated fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Dry westerly flow is expected over parts of the southern Plains Monday as the southern stream upper trough begins to move into the Southwest. The deepening lee low will support strong west/southwest surface winds across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. Warm temperatures and dry downslope westerly winds of 15-20 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels, exacerbated by drying from the previous day. This should support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions west of a developing dryline. ...Northern Plains/Midwest... Gusty post-frontal winds are likely Monday across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud cover suggest weaker mixing and higher RH. Still, some pockets of drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in pockets of dry fuels given stronger northwest winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Afternoon Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Between a mid-level closed low over central Ontario and surface high pressure off the Carolinas coastline, tightened surface pressure gradients will enhance dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Piedmont and Mid-Atlantic. Surface RH values will decrease to 25-35 percent with widespread gusts of 20-25 mph for a few hours, promoting localized fire weather concerns where sporadic dry fuels may exist. However, increasing daytime cloud cover, recent rainfall, and marginal fuels preclude the introduction of fire weather highlights. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will continue over the US Monday as the cut off low over the Southwest merges with a strengthening sub tropical jet stream. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy conditions over parts of the southern Plains supporting elevated fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Dry westerly flow is expected over parts of the southern Plains Monday as the southern stream upper trough begins to move into the Southwest. The deepening lee low will support strong west/southwest surface winds across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles. Warm temperatures and dry downslope westerly winds of 15-20 mph and 15-20 percent RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels, exacerbated by drying from the previous day. This should support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions west of a developing dryline. ...Northern Plains/Midwest... Gusty post-frontal winds are likely Monday across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud cover suggest weaker mixing and higher RH. Still, some pockets of drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in pockets of dry fuels given stronger northwest winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. ...Synopsis... A split upper-level flow pattern is expected on Monday. A broad trough across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will eventually sag southward late in the period. Another trough will move into the lower Colorado Valley. A stronger cold front will move into the Great Lakes/Midwest/southern Plains late afternoon into the overnight. A surface low and attendant dryline is forecast within the central/southern Plains. ...Eastern Kansas into Mid-Mississippi Valley... Forcing for ascent will remain weak/nebulous across the region until after 00Z. A stalled weak boundary within central Missouri may serve as a potential area for storm initiation during the afternoon. Low-level convergence would be weak and development remains uncertain. Afternoon develop could pose a greater hail risk with steep mid-level lapse rates and 35-40 kt of effective shear. Development along the front is not expected to occur until 00Z or later as mid-level height falls and the low-level jet increases. Storms would be initially capable of large hail, but increasing coverage and interaction should eventually yield upscale growth. Damaging winds should become the primary threat with time. A locally greater severe risk could develop should a small MCS develop during the evening. There is significant spread in guidance on where this could occur and the late timing of this suggests nocturnal stabilization could also limit the potential for strong/damaging surface gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Moisture will be more limited with northeastward extent. Daytime heating may be enough to initiate a few storms along the surface boundary during the afternoon. However, a more probable scenario is that greater storm development will occur as large-scale forcing increases during the evening. Modest shear and buoyancy will limit the overall severe threat, but damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible. ...Oklahoma into south-central Kansas... There is a general agreement within current guidance that a surface low will deepen in western Kansas/Oklahoma. A triple point is expected to be located in central Kansas. Despite greater surface moisture than areas farther northeast, lack of large-scale forcing will keep capping in place near the surface low and southward along the dryline in Oklahoma. That said, there will be a strong dryline circulation with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s F to the west. Models indicate attempts at convection along the dryline, but confidence in sustained activity remains quite low. A risk for severe weather would exist if storms can develop and persist. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. ...Synopsis... A split upper-level flow pattern is expected on Monday. A broad trough across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will eventually sag southward late in the period. Another trough will move into the lower Colorado Valley. A stronger cold front will move into the Great Lakes/Midwest/southern Plains late afternoon into the overnight. A surface low and attendant dryline is forecast within the central/southern Plains. ...Eastern Kansas into Mid-Mississippi Valley... Forcing for ascent will remain weak/nebulous across the region until after 00Z. A stalled weak boundary within central Missouri may serve as a potential area for storm initiation during the afternoon. Low-level convergence would be weak and development remains uncertain. Afternoon develop could pose a greater hail risk with steep mid-level lapse rates and 35-40 kt of effective shear. Development along the front is not expected to occur until 00Z or later as mid-level height falls and the low-level jet increases. Storms would be initially capable of large hail, but increasing coverage and interaction should eventually yield upscale growth. Damaging winds should become the primary threat with time. A locally greater severe risk could develop should a small MCS develop during the evening. There is significant spread in guidance on where this could occur and the late timing of this suggests nocturnal stabilization could also limit the potential for strong/damaging surface gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Moisture will be more limited with northeastward extent. Daytime heating may be enough to initiate a few storms along the surface boundary during the afternoon. However, a more probable scenario is that greater storm development will occur as large-scale forcing increases during the evening. Modest shear and buoyancy will limit the overall severe threat, but damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible. ...Oklahoma into south-central Kansas... There is a general agreement within current guidance that a surface low will deepen in western Kansas/Oklahoma. A triple point is expected to be located in central Kansas. Despite greater surface moisture than areas farther northeast, lack of large-scale forcing will keep capping in place near the surface low and southward along the dryline in Oklahoma. That said, there will be a strong dryline circulation with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s F to the west. Models indicate attempts at convection along the dryline, but confidence in sustained activity remains quite low. A risk for severe weather would exist if storms can develop and persist. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. ...Synopsis... A split upper-level flow pattern is expected on Monday. A broad trough across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will eventually sag southward late in the period. Another trough will move into the lower Colorado Valley. A stronger cold front will move into the Great Lakes/Midwest/southern Plains late afternoon into the overnight. A surface low and attendant dryline is forecast within the central/southern Plains. ...Eastern Kansas into Mid-Mississippi Valley... Forcing for ascent will remain weak/nebulous across the region until after 00Z. A stalled weak boundary within central Missouri may serve as a potential area for storm initiation during the afternoon. Low-level convergence would be weak and development remains uncertain. Afternoon develop could pose a greater hail risk with steep mid-level lapse rates and 35-40 kt of effective shear. Development along the front is not expected to occur until 00Z or later as mid-level height falls and the low-level jet increases. Storms would be initially capable of large hail, but increasing coverage and interaction should eventually yield upscale growth. Damaging winds should become the primary threat with time. A locally greater severe risk could develop should a small MCS develop during the evening. There is significant spread in guidance on where this could occur and the late timing of this suggests nocturnal stabilization could also limit the potential for strong/damaging surface gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Moisture will be more limited with northeastward extent. Daytime heating may be enough to initiate a few storms along the surface boundary during the afternoon. However, a more probable scenario is that greater storm development will occur as large-scale forcing increases during the evening. Modest shear and buoyancy will limit the overall severe threat, but damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible. ...Oklahoma into south-central Kansas... There is a general agreement within current guidance that a surface low will deepen in western Kansas/Oklahoma. A triple point is expected to be located in central Kansas. Despite greater surface moisture than areas farther northeast, lack of large-scale forcing will keep capping in place near the surface low and southward along the dryline in Oklahoma. That said, there will be a strong dryline circulation with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s F to the west. Models indicate attempts at convection along the dryline, but confidence in sustained activity remains quite low. A risk for severe weather would exist if storms can develop and persist. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night. ...Synopsis... A split upper-level flow pattern is expected on Monday. A broad trough across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will eventually sag southward late in the period. Another trough will move into the lower Colorado Valley. A stronger cold front will move into the Great Lakes/Midwest/southern Plains late afternoon into the overnight. A surface low and attendant dryline is forecast within the central/southern Plains. ...Eastern Kansas into Mid-Mississippi Valley... Forcing for ascent will remain weak/nebulous across the region until after 00Z. A stalled weak boundary within central Missouri may serve as a potential area for storm initiation during the afternoon. Low-level convergence would be weak and development remains uncertain. Afternoon develop could pose a greater hail risk with steep mid-level lapse rates and 35-40 kt of effective shear. Development along the front is not expected to occur until 00Z or later as mid-level height falls and the low-level jet increases. Storms would be initially capable of large hail, but increasing coverage and interaction should eventually yield upscale growth. Damaging winds should become the primary threat with time. A locally greater severe risk could develop should a small MCS develop during the evening. There is significant spread in guidance on where this could occur and the late timing of this suggests nocturnal stabilization could also limit the potential for strong/damaging surface gusts. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Moisture will be more limited with northeastward extent. Daytime heating may be enough to initiate a few storms along the surface boundary during the afternoon. However, a more probable scenario is that greater storm development will occur as large-scale forcing increases during the evening. Modest shear and buoyancy will limit the overall severe threat, but damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible. ...Oklahoma into south-central Kansas... There is a general agreement within current guidance that a surface low will deepen in western Kansas/Oklahoma. A triple point is expected to be located in central Kansas. Despite greater surface moisture than areas farther northeast, lack of large-scale forcing will keep capping in place near the surface low and southward along the dryline in Oklahoma. That said, there will be a strong dryline circulation with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s F to the west. Models indicate attempts at convection along the dryline, but confidence in sustained activity remains quite low. A risk for severe weather would exist if storms can develop and persist. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Morning Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Current observations depict clear skies and RH values of 30-40 percent across the northern Plains this morning. Around 18z, a mix of mid/high cloud cover will move in ahead/along an incoming cold front, and RH will gradually increase on the backside of the front. Breezy post-frontal northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will ensue through the overnight hours, but decreasing temperatures and increased RH should provide some relief to the fire environment. As northwesterly flow aloft strengthens and surface pressure gradients tighten behind a departing surface low, portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Hudson Valley will experience dry and breezy conditions this afternoon. Elevated highlights have been withheld due to increasing low/mid level cloud cover and marginal fuels. However, localized fire weather conditions may arise where 15-20 mph wind gusts and 25-35 percent RH overlap drier fine fuels. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/ ...Synopsis... Behind the departing eastern US trough, strong northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the central CONUS north of a cut off low over the West Coast. A shortwave trough embedded within the northwest flow will move south out of Canada, deepening a surface cyclone near the international border. A cold front tied to the low will also move south with dry conditions and strong winds associated with it. ...Northern Plains... An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves out of southern Canada into the northern US today and tonight. At the surface, an associated low will intensify as it traverses south-central Canada. The low is forecast to deepen as it moves eastward across southern Canada, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward progressing cold front. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, along with RH below 25%. Widespread dry and breezy conditions over a dry fuelscape should promote elevated fire-weather potential. Some brief locally critical conditions are also possible given the stronger gusts over parts of western ND and eastern MT. However, high clouds and marginal RH value should limit the areal and temporal extent of the more critical conditions. ...Southern Plains... Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandles south of a shortwave trough. South/southwest gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the afternoon. Afternoon RH values are expected to decrease to below 20% near a deepening lee cyclone. This could support some localized fire-weather concerns in pockets of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall nor transitioned to green up. Notably, a very small region of the far northeastern TX Panhandle, eastern OK Panhandle, and northwestern OK have not seen measurable precipitation in the last 30 days with minimal (if any) transition to green up where high fuel loading exists. However, high cloud cover throughout the afternoon and the confined nature of the receptive fuels should limit broader fire-weather concerns. Still, the gusty winds and dry conditions will likely support drying of fuels into Days 2 and 3. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Morning Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Current observations depict clear skies and RH values of 30-40 percent across the northern Plains this morning. Around 18z, a mix of mid/high cloud cover will move in ahead/along an incoming cold front, and RH will gradually increase on the backside of the front. Breezy post-frontal northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will ensue through the overnight hours, but decreasing temperatures and increased RH should provide some relief to the fire environment. As northwesterly flow aloft strengthens and surface pressure gradients tighten behind a departing surface low, portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Hudson Valley will experience dry and breezy conditions this afternoon. Elevated highlights have been withheld due to increasing low/mid level cloud cover and marginal fuels. However, localized fire weather conditions may arise where 15-20 mph wind gusts and 25-35 percent RH overlap drier fine fuels. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/ ...Synopsis... Behind the departing eastern US trough, strong northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the central CONUS north of a cut off low over the West Coast. A shortwave trough embedded within the northwest flow will move south out of Canada, deepening a surface cyclone near the international border. A cold front tied to the low will also move south with dry conditions and strong winds associated with it. ...Northern Plains... An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves out of southern Canada into the northern US today and tonight. At the surface, an associated low will intensify as it traverses south-central Canada. The low is forecast to deepen as it moves eastward across southern Canada, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward progressing cold front. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, along with RH below 25%. Widespread dry and breezy conditions over a dry fuelscape should promote elevated fire-weather potential. Some brief locally critical conditions are also possible given the stronger gusts over parts of western ND and eastern MT. However, high clouds and marginal RH value should limit the areal and temporal extent of the more critical conditions. ...Southern Plains... Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandles south of a shortwave trough. South/southwest gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the afternoon. Afternoon RH values are expected to decrease to below 20% near a deepening lee cyclone. This could support some localized fire-weather concerns in pockets of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall nor transitioned to green up. Notably, a very small region of the far northeastern TX Panhandle, eastern OK Panhandle, and northwestern OK have not seen measurable precipitation in the last 30 days with minimal (if any) transition to green up where high fuel loading exists. However, high cloud cover throughout the afternoon and the confined nature of the receptive fuels should limit broader fire-weather concerns. Still, the gusty winds and dry conditions will likely support drying of fuels into Days 2 and 3. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Morning Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Current observations depict clear skies and RH values of 30-40 percent across the northern Plains this morning. Around 18z, a mix of mid/high cloud cover will move in ahead/along an incoming cold front, and RH will gradually increase on the backside of the front. Breezy post-frontal northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will ensue through the overnight hours, but decreasing temperatures and increased RH should provide some relief to the fire environment. As northwesterly flow aloft strengthens and surface pressure gradients tighten behind a departing surface low, portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Hudson Valley will experience dry and breezy conditions this afternoon. Elevated highlights have been withheld due to increasing low/mid level cloud cover and marginal fuels. However, localized fire weather conditions may arise where 15-20 mph wind gusts and 25-35 percent RH overlap drier fine fuels. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/ ...Synopsis... Behind the departing eastern US trough, strong northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the central CONUS north of a cut off low over the West Coast. A shortwave trough embedded within the northwest flow will move south out of Canada, deepening a surface cyclone near the international border. A cold front tied to the low will also move south with dry conditions and strong winds associated with it. ...Northern Plains... An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves out of southern Canada into the northern US today and tonight. At the surface, an associated low will intensify as it traverses south-central Canada. The low is forecast to deepen as it moves eastward across southern Canada, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward progressing cold front. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, along with RH below 25%. Widespread dry and breezy conditions over a dry fuelscape should promote elevated fire-weather potential. Some brief locally critical conditions are also possible given the stronger gusts over parts of western ND and eastern MT. However, high clouds and marginal RH value should limit the areal and temporal extent of the more critical conditions. ...Southern Plains... Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandles south of a shortwave trough. South/southwest gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the afternoon. Afternoon RH values are expected to decrease to below 20% near a deepening lee cyclone. This could support some localized fire-weather concerns in pockets of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall nor transitioned to green up. Notably, a very small region of the far northeastern TX Panhandle, eastern OK Panhandle, and northwestern OK have not seen measurable precipitation in the last 30 days with minimal (if any) transition to green up where high fuel loading exists. However, high cloud cover throughout the afternoon and the confined nature of the receptive fuels should limit broader fire-weather concerns. Still, the gusty winds and dry conditions will likely support drying of fuels into Days 2 and 3. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...Morning Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Current observations depict clear skies and RH values of 30-40 percent across the northern Plains this morning. Around 18z, a mix of mid/high cloud cover will move in ahead/along an incoming cold front, and RH will gradually increase on the backside of the front. Breezy post-frontal northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will ensue through the overnight hours, but decreasing temperatures and increased RH should provide some relief to the fire environment. As northwesterly flow aloft strengthens and surface pressure gradients tighten behind a departing surface low, portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Hudson Valley will experience dry and breezy conditions this afternoon. Elevated highlights have been withheld due to increasing low/mid level cloud cover and marginal fuels. However, localized fire weather conditions may arise where 15-20 mph wind gusts and 25-35 percent RH overlap drier fine fuels. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/ ...Synopsis... Behind the departing eastern US trough, strong northwesterly flow aloft will develop over the central CONUS north of a cut off low over the West Coast. A shortwave trough embedded within the northwest flow will move south out of Canada, deepening a surface cyclone near the international border. A cold front tied to the low will also move south with dry conditions and strong winds associated with it. ...Northern Plains... An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves out of southern Canada into the northern US today and tonight. At the surface, an associated low will intensify as it traverses south-central Canada. The low is forecast to deepen as it moves eastward across southern Canada, promoting dry and breezy conditions ahead of a southward progressing cold front. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, along with RH below 25%. Widespread dry and breezy conditions over a dry fuelscape should promote elevated fire-weather potential. Some brief locally critical conditions are also possible given the stronger gusts over parts of western ND and eastern MT. However, high clouds and marginal RH value should limit the areal and temporal extent of the more critical conditions. ...Southern Plains... Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandles south of a shortwave trough. South/southwest gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the afternoon. Afternoon RH values are expected to decrease to below 20% near a deepening lee cyclone. This could support some localized fire-weather concerns in pockets of dry fuels that have not received recent rainfall nor transitioned to green up. Notably, a very small region of the far northeastern TX Panhandle, eastern OK Panhandle, and northwestern OK have not seen measurable precipitation in the last 30 days with minimal (if any) transition to green up where high fuel loading exists. However, high cloud cover throughout the afternoon and the confined nature of the receptive fuels should limit broader fire-weather concerns. Still, the gusty winds and dry conditions will likely support drying of fuels into Days 2 and 3. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois. ...Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois... Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur north-northeastward into the region along and south of a decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However, toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb, and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Far South Florida... While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon, cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to limit storm intensity inland. ...Northern California/southwest Oregon... Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe storm potential is expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois. ...Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois... Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur north-northeastward into the region along and south of a decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However, toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb, and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Far South Florida... While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon, cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to limit storm intensity inland. ...Northern California/southwest Oregon... Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe storm potential is expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois. ...Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois... Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur north-northeastward into the region along and south of a decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However, toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb, and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Far South Florida... While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon, cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to limit storm intensity inland. ...Northern California/southwest Oregon... Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe storm potential is expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois. ...Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois... Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur north-northeastward into the region along and south of a decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However, toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb, and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Far South Florida... While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon, cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to limit storm intensity inland. ...Northern California/southwest Oregon... Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe storm potential is expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/03/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern/central Missouri and central Illinois today. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows broadly cyclonic flow across much of the CONUS. The only exceptions are along the West Coast, which is being influenced by an upper low just off the CA coast, and the Southwest States, where minor shortwave ridging exists. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving southward/southeastward within this broadly cyclonic flow through the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, with continued southeastward progression expected throughout the period. Recent surface analysis reveals a low over east-central MN, with a cold front extending southwestward into south-central NE before arcing back westward into far northeast CO and northwestward into central WY. This surface low, which is associated with the Upper Midwest shortwave trough, is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, while gradually weakening. As it does, the cold front is expected to progress southeastward/southward, although the western portion of the front will gradually slow and eventually become stationary from southwest KS into northern MO this evening. Ascent along and atop this frontal zone will be the focus for potential isolated severe thunderstorm development this evening. ...Northern/central Missouri into central Illinois... Some modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the southern and central Plains today ahead of the southward progressing cold front. However, any notable low-level moisture (i.e. 60+ deg F dewpoints) will remain well south over south TX. This limited low-level moisture coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the airmass across the region capped through the afternoon and into the early evening. Thereafter, strengthening warm-air advection across the stalled front will combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to support moderate buoyancy and limited convective inhibition for parcels rooted around 700 to 800 mb. Cloud-bearing layer shear is sufficient for organization of any deeper, more sustained updrafts, and a few storms capable of isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are possible. ...Northern California/southwest Oregon... Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper low off the central CA coast. Increasing mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during the late afternoon/early evening. Even so, overall severe coverage is still expected to be less than 5%. ..Mosier/Dean.. 05/03/2026 Read more