Storm Prediction Center

MD 1247 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1247 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366... Valid 220436Z - 220600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across the region have remained below severe limits this evening and are not likely to intensify further. As such, portions or all of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #366 can be canceled early. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of south-central Missouri this evening. Despite what appears to be a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment (MUCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg and effective-layer shear on the order of 40 knots, these thunderstorms have struggled to intensify this evening. This may be a subtle consequence of the ongoing MCV-aided convection farther east. With the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of a focused low-level or large-scale forcing mechanism, the expectation is for ongoing thunderstorms to remain below severe limits. As such portions, or perhaps all, of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #366 can be canceled before expiration at 06Z/01 AM CDT. ..Marsh.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37219494 37609280 37519087 36928957 36388980 35979111 35999251 36149388 36589485 36859504 37219494 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1244 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371...372... FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1244 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Areas affected...much of Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371...372... Valid 220338Z - 220545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371, 372 continues. SUMMARY...An complex of thunderstorms should move across much of Oklahoma tonight. The main threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds, but a few large hail stones will be possible within the most intense thunderstorms. A tornado or two may be possible along the gust front. DISCUSSION...An organized MCS is currently moving southeast across southwest Kansas. Recent infrared satellite imagery and 10-kilometer CAPPI imagery indicates increased cooling of cloud tops suggesting intensification of updrafts associated with this MCS. The MCS will move into Oklahoma within the next 1-2 hours. The environment ahead of this MCS across Oklahoma is very to extremely unstable with MUCAPE values ranging from 3000 J/kg to in excess of 4000 J/kg. Strong effective-layer shear on the order of 40 knots should maintain thunderstorm intensity and organization as the thunderstorm complex moves across Oklahoma. The airmass ahead of the MCS will not cool significantly before the MCS arrival. Surface temperatures in the upper 70Fs to low 80Fs (and dewpoint temperatures in the low 70Fs) will result in a rich theta-e environment that should maintain a strong temperature gradient from MCS cold pool into the ambient environment. As this gradient maximizes tonight, the damaging wind threat should peak across portions of Oklahoma. Given the degree of instability and steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail will be possible with the individual thunderstorm cores within the MCS. Additionally, although the low-level wind field is not particularly strong this evening across Oklahoma, current KTLX VAD profile indicates enough low-level veering-with-height to support nearly 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 kilometer SRH and the KVNX VAD profile showing nearly 230 m2/s2 0-1 kilometer SRH, both of which suggest the potential for a tornado or two along the leading edge of the gust front, particularly where low-level updrafts can interact with it. ..Marsh/Smith.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35329991 35999858 36479642 36119507 35619486 34929481 34569507 34089581 33969743 34439946 35329991 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the Interior West while building into the Northern Plains tomorrow (Tuesday). An embedded mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing intensification over Intermountain West. Dry and breezy conditions will result Tuesday afternoon over the southern Great Basin into the Four corners, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH atop fuels receptive to fire spread. ..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the Interior West while building into the Northern Plains tomorrow (Tuesday). An embedded mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing intensification over Intermountain West. Dry and breezy conditions will result Tuesday afternoon over the southern Great Basin into the Four corners, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH atop fuels receptive to fire spread. ..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the Interior West while building into the Northern Plains tomorrow (Tuesday). An embedded mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing intensification over Intermountain West. Dry and breezy conditions will result Tuesday afternoon over the southern Great Basin into the Four corners, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH atop fuels receptive to fire spread. ..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the Interior West while building into the Northern Plains tomorrow (Tuesday). An embedded mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing intensification over Intermountain West. Dry and breezy conditions will result Tuesday afternoon over the southern Great Basin into the Four corners, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH atop fuels receptive to fire spread. ..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the Interior West while building into the Northern Plains tomorrow (Tuesday). An embedded mid-level impulse will overspread the central Rockies, supporting surface lee troughing intensification over Intermountain West. Dry and breezy conditions will result Tuesday afternoon over the southern Great Basin into the Four corners, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH atop fuels receptive to fire spread. ..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will begin building over the Interior West as upper troughing takes shape over the eastern U.S. today. An embedded impulse will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging surface trough development over the Great Basin, where dry and breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon. Fifteen (15) mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and breezy conditions will also occur across the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho due to channeled flow. Fifteen to twenty (15-20) mph west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH, with Elevated highlights continued here as well. ..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will begin building over the Interior West as upper troughing takes shape over the eastern U.S. today. An embedded impulse will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging surface trough development over the Great Basin, where dry and breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon. Fifteen (15) mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and breezy conditions will also occur across the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho due to channeled flow. Fifteen to twenty (15-20) mph west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH, with Elevated highlights continued here as well. ..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will begin building over the Interior West as upper troughing takes shape over the eastern U.S. today. An embedded impulse will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging surface trough development over the Great Basin, where dry and breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon. Fifteen (15) mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and breezy conditions will also occur across the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho due to channeled flow. Fifteen to twenty (15-20) mph west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH, with Elevated highlights continued here as well. ..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will begin building over the Interior West as upper troughing takes shape over the eastern U.S. today. An embedded impulse will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging surface trough development over the Great Basin, where dry and breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon. Fifteen (15) mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and breezy conditions will also occur across the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho due to channeled flow. Fifteen to twenty (15-20) mph west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH, with Elevated highlights continued here as well. ..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will begin building over the Interior West as upper troughing takes shape over the eastern U.S. today. An embedded impulse will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging surface trough development over the Great Basin, where dry and breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon. Fifteen (15) mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Dry and breezy conditions will also occur across the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho due to channeled flow. Fifteen to twenty (15-20) mph west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH, with Elevated highlights continued here as well. ..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1243 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367...368...371... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Kansas...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367...368...371... Valid 220336Z - 220430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367, 368, 371 continues. SUMMARY...Numerous additional 50+ kt convective gusts are expected with an approaching MCS over the next few hours. A few gusts could exceed 75 mph. DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of numerous measured 50+ kt gusts, continues to propagate southeast into a highly unstable/sheared airmass. KVNX inbound velocity data depicts a descending rear-inflow jet at the apex of a bowing structure embedded within the MCS, which should serve as the impetus for numerous additional 50+ kt gusts over the next few hours, particularly over northwestern OK. Given the highly organized MCS structure interacting with such a favorably destabilized/sheared environment, a few gusts may exceed 75 mph. ..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36960196 36920096 36939980 37349854 37399777 37219718 36909699 36549697 36199730 36019805 35949936 35900008 35930127 36960196 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0372 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0372 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0372 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0372 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0372 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0372 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1242 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0849 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Areas affected...portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...and northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367... Valid 220149Z - 220315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367 continues. SUMMARY...A severe wind swath should continue for several more hours, with an occasional instance of hail as well. Some of the severe winds may impact parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, where a small/tactical Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...A mature cold-pool driven MCS, with a history of producing several measured gusts well over 50 kts, continues to propagate to the southeast amid a kinematically/thermodynamically favorable environment. Of particular concern is that the MCS will approach a surface baroclinic zone, where surface temperatures increase into the mid to upper 80s F amid low 70s F dewpoints, yielding much higher MLCAPE (i.e. 4000 J/kg) and decreased convective inhibition. The 00Z DDC observed sounding also showed an impressive buoyancy profile above the residual inversion layer with 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates in a deep layer, yielding wide CAPE profiles amid an elongated hodograph, which is highly favorable for an MCS wind swath. Unlike the general consensus and consistency among numerical guidance, convection did not become prevalent along this boundary ahead of the MCS, so a pristine airmass awaits the ongoing wind swath over a large area. Given this scenario, it is plausible that many more measured severe gusts will be likely, and multiple gusts may reach the 75-90 mph range. The southwestern flank of this MCS may encroach on northeastern parts of the OK/TX panhandles, so a small/tactical Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be needed to address this threat. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 37650259 37680176 37890095 38240043 38559997 38689948 38429876 37849835 37359828 36859836 36509854 36209889 36009930 35909985 35990041 36370135 37650259 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0371 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0371 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0371 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0371 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0371 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0371 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more