SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms remain possible across the northern and
central Florida Peninsula through early evening.
...20Z Update...
The primary change to the outlook was to trim thunder and severe
probabilities where storms have contributed to boundary layer
stabilization, particularly over the central FL Peninsula. Category
1/Marginal risk probabilities have been maintained ahead of a broken
band of storms. Here, an adequate overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer
shear remains to support multicells and transient supercells capable
of producing an instance or two of hail, gusty winds, or a brief
tornado.
..Squitieri.. 05/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/
...Northern/Central Florida...
At midday, a line of gradually intensifying storms extends
northeast-southwestward across the northern Florida Peninsula to the
nearby Gulf, with additional offshore development occurring about as
far south as the Tampa Bay vicinity. This line will continue to move
inland and further intensify as the boundary layer warms inland in
conjunction with near-70F surface dewpoints. Some additional
more-discrete development may occur ahead of the line, potentially
focusing along the east coast. Damaging winds are the most probable
severe hazard as low/mid-level winds further strengthen, albeit with
a tendency for low-level veering over time. Even so, a tornado or
two could occur aside from damaging winds.
...Western Oregon/northern California...
Influenced by upper-jet exit region and the prominent trough off the
coast of Oregon/California, a few stronger storms may develop across
the region late this afternoon through early evening. While gusty
winds and/or small hail could occur, the potential for organized
severe storms should remain low given the modest instability and
weak deep-layer shear.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms remain possible across the northern and
central Florida Peninsula through early evening.
...20Z Update...
The primary change to the outlook was to trim thunder and severe
probabilities where storms have contributed to boundary layer
stabilization, particularly over the central FL Peninsula. Category
1/Marginal risk probabilities have been maintained ahead of a broken
band of storms. Here, an adequate overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer
shear remains to support multicells and transient supercells capable
of producing an instance or two of hail, gusty winds, or a brief
tornado.
..Squitieri.. 05/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/
...Northern/Central Florida...
At midday, a line of gradually intensifying storms extends
northeast-southwestward across the northern Florida Peninsula to the
nearby Gulf, with additional offshore development occurring about as
far south as the Tampa Bay vicinity. This line will continue to move
inland and further intensify as the boundary layer warms inland in
conjunction with near-70F surface dewpoints. Some additional
more-discrete development may occur ahead of the line, potentially
focusing along the east coast. Damaging winds are the most probable
severe hazard as low/mid-level winds further strengthen, albeit with
a tendency for low-level veering over time. Even so, a tornado or
two could occur aside from damaging winds.
...Western Oregon/northern California...
Influenced by upper-jet exit region and the prominent trough off the
coast of Oregon/California, a few stronger storms may develop across
the region late this afternoon through early evening. While gusty
winds and/or small hail could occur, the potential for organized
severe storms should remain low given the modest instability and
weak deep-layer shear.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.
...Synopsis...
A split flow pattern aloft will evolve on Monday. Cyclonic flow will
sag southward from the northern U.S. into the Upper Midwest and
parts of the Midwest. On the West Coast, an upper low will become
more of an open wave and move into the lower Colorado Valley. In
response to the intensifying upper low near the Upper Great Lakes, a
stronger cold front will move into the Lower Great Lakes, Midwest,
and central Plains.
...Eastern Kansas into central Ohio...
With an additional day of return flow, low-level moisture should be
increased from Sunday. Mid/upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable,
but low 60s are not out of the question in eastern Kansas/western
Missouri. Models differ in the intensity/placement of the
subtropical jet stream leading to differences in where the surface
cyclone/front will be positioned by late afternoon. Mid-level ascent
along the boundary will be weak through most of the day with some
increase noted mainly after 00Z. Even so, surface heating will be
sufficient to reach convective temperatures in parts of
Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Farther west, mid/upper clouds may be more
prevalent and afternoon development, uncertain as it is, will be
tied to mesoscale features such as the triple point. During the
evening, an intensifying low-level jet should promote greater storm
development/coverage along the boundary. Storms would be capable of
large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
..Wendt.. 05/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OHIO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.
...Synopsis...
A split flow pattern aloft will evolve on Monday. Cyclonic flow will
sag southward from the northern U.S. into the Upper Midwest and
parts of the Midwest. On the West Coast, an upper low will become
more of an open wave and move into the lower Colorado Valley. In
response to the intensifying upper low near the Upper Great Lakes, a
stronger cold front will move into the Lower Great Lakes, Midwest,
and central Plains.
...Eastern Kansas into central Ohio...
With an additional day of return flow, low-level moisture should be
increased from Sunday. Mid/upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable,
but low 60s are not out of the question in eastern Kansas/western
Missouri. Models differ in the intensity/placement of the
subtropical jet stream leading to differences in where the surface
cyclone/front will be positioned by late afternoon. Mid-level ascent
along the boundary will be weak through most of the day with some
increase noted mainly after 00Z. Even so, surface heating will be
sufficient to reach convective temperatures in parts of
Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Farther west, mid/upper clouds may be more
prevalent and afternoon development, uncertain as it is, will be
tied to mesoscale features such as the triple point. During the
evening, an intensifying low-level jet should promote greater storm
development/coverage along the boundary. Storms would be capable of
large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
..Wendt.. 05/02/2026
Read more
WW 0183 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 183
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW PIE
TO 45 SSW OCF TO 25 ESE OCF TO 30 N DAB.
..JEWELL..05/02/26
ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 183
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-053-057-069-095-097-101-103-105-117-119-127-021940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH
LAKE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA
AMZ552-GMZ830-853-021940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Slight expansions were made to the Elevated risk area across the
northern Plains to account for recent guidance depicting a broader
overlap of dry and breezy conditions. Otherwise, the previous
forecast remains on track. Across the southern Plains, localized
fire weather conditions are expected in pockets of dry fuels that
have not received recent rainfall nor transitioned to green up.
Notably, a very small region of the far northeastern TX Panhandle,
eastern OK Panhandle, and northwestern OK have not seen measurable
precipitation in the last 30 days with minimal (if any) transition
to green up where high fuel loading exists. However, increasing high
cloud cover throughout the afternoon may provide some relief to the
very localized fire environment.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will develop over the US Sunday as an upper
trough exits the east coast and ridging remains in place across the
Great Basin. The northern branch of the flow aloft will remain
northwesterly over the Plains while a cutoff low is absorbed by the
strengthening sub tropical jet. The result will be unseasonably dry
conditions over much of the central CONUS where elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Plains.
...Northern Plains...
An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves
out of southern Canada into the northern US Sunday. At the surface,
an associated low will intensify as it traverses south-central
Canada. A strengthening surface pressure gradient should tighten
across much of the northern Plains, promoting dry and breezy
conditions ahead of a southward progressing cold front tied to the
low. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, along with RH below 30%.
Widespread dry and breezy conditions over a dry fuelscape should
promote elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southern High Plains...
Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK
and the TX Panhandles Sunday beneath a northwesterly flow shortwave
trough. South/southwest gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the
afternoon. With few clouds, afternoon RH values are expected to
decrease to below 20% near the lee trough. This could support some
localized fire-weather concerns. However, seasonably cooler
temperatures and rainfall/green up have tempered fuels such that
widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Slight expansions were made to the Elevated risk area across the
northern Plains to account for recent guidance depicting a broader
overlap of dry and breezy conditions. Otherwise, the previous
forecast remains on track. Across the southern Plains, localized
fire weather conditions are expected in pockets of dry fuels that
have not received recent rainfall nor transitioned to green up.
Notably, a very small region of the far northeastern TX Panhandle,
eastern OK Panhandle, and northwestern OK have not seen measurable
precipitation in the last 30 days with minimal (if any) transition
to green up where high fuel loading exists. However, increasing high
cloud cover throughout the afternoon may provide some relief to the
very localized fire environment.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
Split mid-level flow will develop over the US Sunday as an upper
trough exits the east coast and ridging remains in place across the
Great Basin. The northern branch of the flow aloft will remain
northwesterly over the Plains while a cutoff low is absorbed by the
strengthening sub tropical jet. The result will be unseasonably dry
conditions over much of the central CONUS where elevated
fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Plains.
...Northern Plains...
An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to deepen as it moves
out of southern Canada into the northern US Sunday. At the surface,
an associated low will intensify as it traverses south-central
Canada. A strengthening surface pressure gradient should tighten
across much of the northern Plains, promoting dry and breezy
conditions ahead of a southward progressing cold front tied to the
low. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, along with RH below 30%.
Widespread dry and breezy conditions over a dry fuelscape should
promote elevated fire-weather potential.
...Southern High Plains...
Dry and breezy southerly flow is expected over parts of western OK
and the TX Panhandles Sunday beneath a northwesterly flow shortwave
trough. South/southwest gusts of 20-25 mph are possible during the
afternoon. With few clouds, afternoon RH values are expected to
decrease to below 20% near the lee trough. This could support some
localized fire-weather concerns. However, seasonably cooler
temperatures and rainfall/green up have tempered fuels such that
widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A broad cyclone across the Midwest/East will remain in the wake of a
stronger upper trough departing the East Coast early Sunday. An
embedded shortwave trough will move southeastward into the lower
Missouri and mid-Missouri Valleys during the afternoon. At the
surface, weak moisture return is expected on the western flank of
the southeastern surface high. A weak cold front will move into
central Missouri/Illinois and serve as a focus for possible
convective development.
...Northern/central Missouri into central Illinois...
Moisture return continues to be the main point of uncertainty in the
forecast. The typically moist NAM still suggests dewpoints in the
low 50s F is possible. However, current surface/sounding
observational data shows poor moisture quality as far south as
central Texas. Moisture return is forecast to being overnight
Saturday. With only weak low-level flow expected, the pattern simply
does not suggest robust moisture return. It seems more probable that
moisture that does advance northward will be shallow and have a
tendency to mix out during the day. All that said, temperatures
aloft will be rather cold (around -20 C at 500 mb). Even upper 40s F
dewpoints will result in around 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Modest convergence along the surface front and aid from a shortwave
trough may promote isolated storm development by late
afternoon/early evening. A potent mid-level jet will increase
effective shear to 50-60 kt near the Mississippi River decreasing to
near 40 kt in western Missouri. Large hail is possible with the
strongest storms. Isolated strong/severe winds are also possible
given the well-mixed boundary layer. Storms should weaken relatively
quickly after sunset given the drier boundary layer.
...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Convection is possible during the afternoon as mid-level
temperatures cool in close proximity to the upper low off the coast.
Filtered surface heating could allow for a few stronger storms to
develop. Small hail and gusty winds are possible. Anvil-level flow
will be quite weak which will likely lead to storms that are only
strong briefly. The overall severe potential appears low.
..Wendt.. 05/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A broad cyclone across the Midwest/East will remain in the wake of a
stronger upper trough departing the East Coast early Sunday. An
embedded shortwave trough will move southeastward into the lower
Missouri and mid-Missouri Valleys during the afternoon. At the
surface, weak moisture return is expected on the western flank of
the southeastern surface high. A weak cold front will move into
central Missouri/Illinois and serve as a focus for possible
convective development.
...Northern/central Missouri into central Illinois...
Moisture return continues to be the main point of uncertainty in the
forecast. The typically moist NAM still suggests dewpoints in the
low 50s F is possible. However, current surface/sounding
observational data shows poor moisture quality as far south as
central Texas. Moisture return is forecast to being overnight
Saturday. With only weak low-level flow expected, the pattern simply
does not suggest robust moisture return. It seems more probable that
moisture that does advance northward will be shallow and have a
tendency to mix out during the day. All that said, temperatures
aloft will be rather cold (around -20 C at 500 mb). Even upper 40s F
dewpoints will result in around 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Modest convergence along the surface front and aid from a shortwave
trough may promote isolated storm development by late
afternoon/early evening. A potent mid-level jet will increase
effective shear to 50-60 kt near the Mississippi River decreasing to
near 40 kt in western Missouri. Large hail is possible with the
strongest storms. Isolated strong/severe winds are also possible
given the well-mixed boundary layer. Storms should weaken relatively
quickly after sunset given the drier boundary layer.
...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Convection is possible during the afternoon as mid-level
temperatures cool in close proximity to the upper low off the coast.
Filtered surface heating could allow for a few stronger storms to
develop. Small hail and gusty winds are possible. Anvil-level flow
will be quite weak which will likely lead to storms that are only
strong briefly. The overall severe potential appears low.
..Wendt.. 05/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern and central
Florida Peninsula through early evening.
...Northern/Central Florida...
At midday, a line of gradually intensifying storms extends
northeast-southwestward across the northern Florida Peninsula to the
nearby Gulf, with additional offshore development occurring about as
far south as the Tampa Bay vicinity. This line will continue to move
inland and further intensify as the boundary layer warms inland in
conjunction with near-70F surface dewpoints. Some additional
more-discrete development may occur ahead of the line, potentially
focusing along the east coast. Damaging winds are the most probable
severe hazard as low/mid-level winds further strengthen, albeit with
a tendency for low-level veering over time. Even so, a tornado or
two could occur aside from damaging winds.
...Western Oregon/northern California...
Influenced by upper-jet exit region and the prominent trough off the
coast of Oregon/California, a few stronger storms may develop across
the region late this afternoon through early evening. While gusty
winds and/or small hail could occur, the potential for organized
severe storms should remain low given the modest instability and
weak deep-layer shear.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern and central
Florida Peninsula through early evening.
...Northern/Central Florida...
At midday, a line of gradually intensifying storms extends
northeast-southwestward across the northern Florida Peninsula to the
nearby Gulf, with additional offshore development occurring about as
far south as the Tampa Bay vicinity. This line will continue to move
inland and further intensify as the boundary layer warms inland in
conjunction with near-70F surface dewpoints. Some additional
more-discrete development may occur ahead of the line, potentially
focusing along the east coast. Damaging winds are the most probable
severe hazard as low/mid-level winds further strengthen, albeit with
a tendency for low-level veering over time. Even so, a tornado or
two could occur aside from damaging winds.
...Western Oregon/northern California...
Influenced by upper-jet exit region and the prominent trough off the
coast of Oregon/California, a few stronger storms may develop across
the region late this afternoon through early evening. While gusty
winds and/or small hail could occur, the potential for organized
severe storms should remain low given the modest instability and
weak deep-layer shear.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/02/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Cloud cover is gradually
expanding across the FL Panhandle as a cold front, currently draped
across northern FL and the Gulf Coast, slowly progresses southward
through the afternoon. In southern FL, current surface observations
depict westerly wind speeds of 15 mph and RH values quickly
decreasing as temperatures rise across the interior. Farther north,
a trailing dry cold front beneath a weak surface low is progressing
through eastern MT and northern ND. Mostly clear skies ahead of the
front will promote deeper mixing this afternoon, with surface
observations already depicting RH values declining to 30 percent and
southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph. Behind the front,
northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are being
observed with a slight increase of RH. Cloud cover will gradually
expand across the area this afternoon, providing some relief to the
fire environment. However, poor overnight humidity recoveries are
expected, leading to another day of broader fire weather concerns on
Day 2/Sunday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern
US Saturday as a weaker perturbation merges with it across the
northern Gulf Coast. As the upper trough deepens, the associated
southwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen. This will drive a
cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are
expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west, high pressure
will remain over the Great Basin and northwesterly flow aloft
persists over the central US.
...FL...
Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected again today ahead
of the cold front moving across the FL Peninsula. Strong westerly
flow at the base of the deepening eastern US trough will overspread
the frontal zone this morning and afternoon, supporting gusty
westerly winds across parts of southern and central FL. Mid and
upper-level cloud cover are likely to accompany the front, though
breaks (becoming more frequent with southward extent) should support
some diurnal mixing. With westerly flow aloft increasing, surface
gusts of 10-20 mph are possible. This should support gusty winds
with RH below 40% for much of the region where rainfall has been
limited. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.
A couple hours of locally critical conditions are possible through
the afternoon where occasional gusts of 15-20 mph could overlap with
RH below 35%. This appears most likely farther south and east where
humidity is expected to be lower and less likely to be impacted by
clouds. However, less upper-level support for strong mixing and
gusts is expected here. This suggests that while critical conditions
are possible, they are unlikely to be widespread or of long
duration.
Fire-weather concerns should end this evening as the front continues
to move southward. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
should accompany the frontal passage, with cooler conditions
developing behind the front.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Behind the upper trough moving out of the Great lakes, continued
northwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Plains. An embedded
perturbation will deepen a weak surface low tracking from southern
Canada into the eastern Dakotas. Trailing the low, a cold front will
move southward, supporting gusty winds over parts of MT/WY and the
western Dakotas. While RH will be variable and somewhat marginal
given high cloud cover and the cooler air mass behind the front,
most guidance shows diurnal minimums below 30%. The strong northerly
winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours
following the frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather
conditions given dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Cloud cover is gradually
expanding across the FL Panhandle as a cold front, currently draped
across northern FL and the Gulf Coast, slowly progresses southward
through the afternoon. In southern FL, current surface observations
depict westerly wind speeds of 15 mph and RH values quickly
decreasing as temperatures rise across the interior. Farther north,
a trailing dry cold front beneath a weak surface low is progressing
through eastern MT and northern ND. Mostly clear skies ahead of the
front will promote deeper mixing this afternoon, with surface
observations already depicting RH values declining to 30 percent and
southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph. Behind the front,
northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are being
observed with a slight increase of RH. Cloud cover will gradually
expand across the area this afternoon, providing some relief to the
fire environment. However, poor overnight humidity recoveries are
expected, leading to another day of broader fire weather concerns on
Day 2/Sunday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern
US Saturday as a weaker perturbation merges with it across the
northern Gulf Coast. As the upper trough deepens, the associated
southwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen. This will drive a
cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are
expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west, high pressure
will remain over the Great Basin and northwesterly flow aloft
persists over the central US.
...FL...
Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected again today ahead
of the cold front moving across the FL Peninsula. Strong westerly
flow at the base of the deepening eastern US trough will overspread
the frontal zone this morning and afternoon, supporting gusty
westerly winds across parts of southern and central FL. Mid and
upper-level cloud cover are likely to accompany the front, though
breaks (becoming more frequent with southward extent) should support
some diurnal mixing. With westerly flow aloft increasing, surface
gusts of 10-20 mph are possible. This should support gusty winds
with RH below 40% for much of the region where rainfall has been
limited. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.
A couple hours of locally critical conditions are possible through
the afternoon where occasional gusts of 15-20 mph could overlap with
RH below 35%. This appears most likely farther south and east where
humidity is expected to be lower and less likely to be impacted by
clouds. However, less upper-level support for strong mixing and
gusts is expected here. This suggests that while critical conditions
are possible, they are unlikely to be widespread or of long
duration.
Fire-weather concerns should end this evening as the front continues
to move southward. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
should accompany the frontal passage, with cooler conditions
developing behind the front.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Behind the upper trough moving out of the Great lakes, continued
northwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Plains. An embedded
perturbation will deepen a weak surface low tracking from southern
Canada into the eastern Dakotas. Trailing the low, a cold front will
move southward, supporting gusty winds over parts of MT/WY and the
western Dakotas. While RH will be variable and somewhat marginal
given high cloud cover and the cooler air mass behind the front,
most guidance shows diurnal minimums below 30%. The strong northerly
winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours
following the frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather
conditions given dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021700Z - 031200Z
...Morning Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Cloud cover is gradually
expanding across the FL Panhandle as a cold front, currently draped
across northern FL and the Gulf Coast, slowly progresses southward
through the afternoon. In southern FL, current surface observations
depict westerly wind speeds of 15 mph and RH values quickly
decreasing as temperatures rise across the interior. Farther north,
a trailing dry cold front beneath a weak surface low is progressing
through eastern MT and northern ND. Mostly clear skies ahead of the
front will promote deeper mixing this afternoon, with surface
observations already depicting RH values declining to 30 percent and
southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph. Behind the front,
northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are being
observed with a slight increase of RH. Cloud cover will gradually
expand across the area this afternoon, providing some relief to the
fire environment. However, poor overnight humidity recoveries are
expected, leading to another day of broader fire weather concerns on
Day 2/Sunday.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern
US Saturday as a weaker perturbation merges with it across the
northern Gulf Coast. As the upper trough deepens, the associated
southwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen. This will drive a
cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are
expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west, high pressure
will remain over the Great Basin and northwesterly flow aloft
persists over the central US.
...FL...
Widespread dry and breezy conditions are expected again today ahead
of the cold front moving across the FL Peninsula. Strong westerly
flow at the base of the deepening eastern US trough will overspread
the frontal zone this morning and afternoon, supporting gusty
westerly winds across parts of southern and central FL. Mid and
upper-level cloud cover are likely to accompany the front, though
breaks (becoming more frequent with southward extent) should support
some diurnal mixing. With westerly flow aloft increasing, surface
gusts of 10-20 mph are possible. This should support gusty winds
with RH below 40% for much of the region where rainfall has been
limited. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.
A couple hours of locally critical conditions are possible through
the afternoon where occasional gusts of 15-20 mph could overlap with
RH below 35%. This appears most likely farther south and east where
humidity is expected to be lower and less likely to be impacted by
clouds. However, less upper-level support for strong mixing and
gusts is expected here. This suggests that while critical conditions
are possible, they are unlikely to be widespread or of long
duration.
Fire-weather concerns should end this evening as the front continues
to move southward. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
should accompany the frontal passage, with cooler conditions
developing behind the front.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Behind the upper trough moving out of the Great lakes, continued
northwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Plains. An embedded
perturbation will deepen a weak surface low tracking from southern
Canada into the eastern Dakotas. Trailing the low, a cold front will
move southward, supporting gusty winds over parts of MT/WY and the
western Dakotas. While RH will be variable and somewhat marginal
given high cloud cover and the cooler air mass behind the front,
most guidance shows diurnal minimums below 30%. The strong northerly
winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours
following the frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather
conditions given dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into
northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.
...Northern/Central Florida into far southeast Georgia...
Regional radar imagery shows a broad area of precipitation extending
from the northeast Gulf northeastward through the Carolinas.
Thunderstorms are ongoing within the southern portion of this
precipitation shield, from the northeast Gulf into central and
eastern FL Panhandle. This region is just downstream of a
low-amplitude shortwave trough and in the vicinity of an associated
surface low. Stronger ascent and modest buoyancy is favoring deeper
updrafts across this region compared to areas farther north.
Updrafts in this area have been fairly transient overnight and for
the first few hours this morning, likely resulting from a
combination of modest buoyancy, boundary-parallel deep-layer shear,
and elevated storm structures. Some improvement in storm
organization appears possible over the next few hours as the
low-level flow strengthens and convergence near the surface low
augments large-scale ascent. This better storm organization should
result in stronger updrafts and longer overall updraft persistence,
with an attendant increase in the risk for damaging gusts.
Additionally, there is enough low-level curvature to support a brief
tornado or two if surface-based storms can be realized.
Surface-based storms appear most probable over the northwest FL
vicinity and a small 5% tornado probability was delineated to
highlight this potential.
This area was also addressed in recently issued MCD #0635.
..Mosier/Dean.. 05/02/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into
northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.
...Northern/Central Florida into far southeast Georgia...
Regional radar imagery shows a broad area of precipitation extending
from the northeast Gulf northeastward through the Carolinas.
Thunderstorms are ongoing within the southern portion of this
precipitation shield, from the northeast Gulf into central and
eastern FL Panhandle. This region is just downstream of a
low-amplitude shortwave trough and in the vicinity of an associated
surface low. Stronger ascent and modest buoyancy is favoring deeper
updrafts across this region compared to areas farther north.
Updrafts in this area have been fairly transient overnight and for
the first few hours this morning, likely resulting from a
combination of modest buoyancy, boundary-parallel deep-layer shear,
and elevated storm structures. Some improvement in storm
organization appears possible over the next few hours as the
low-level flow strengthens and convergence near the surface low
augments large-scale ascent. This better storm organization should
result in stronger updrafts and longer overall updraft persistence,
with an attendant increase in the risk for damaging gusts.
Additionally, there is enough low-level curvature to support a brief
tornado or two if surface-based storms can be realized.
Surface-based storms appear most probable over the northwest FL
vicinity and a small 5% tornado probability was delineated to
highlight this potential.
This area was also addressed in recently issued MCD #0635.
..Mosier/Dean.. 05/02/2026
Read more
MD 0634 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND FL BIG BEND REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0403 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Areas affected...Parts of the eastern FL Panhandle and FL Big Bend
region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 020903Z - 021100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some uptick in severe potential is possible through dawn.
DISCUSSION...Cooling cloud tops and an increase in lightning
activity have been noted with early-morning thunderstorms offshore
of southeast LA to near coastal parts of the FL Panhandle. Inland
areas of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend are still north of a nearly
stationary front, with the bulk of the ongoing deeper convection
being somewhat elevated.
Ascent attendant to a midlevel shortwave trough moving across the
central Gulf Coast region will help to maintain convection through
the morning. While much of the convection may tend to remain
elevated through the early morning, MUCAPE increasing to near/above
500 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear will support at least transient
storm organization, and localized damaging-wind potential.
Short-term guidance suggests the surface boundary may approach
near-coastal areas, with relatively strong 3-hour pressure falls
observed at KAAF supporting this possibility. Some potential for a
waterspout/brief tornado could evolve where the stronger convection
can interact with the front near the coast.
Given the current marginal and isolated nature of the threat,
short-term watch issuance is unlikely. There remains some potential
for the effective warm front to eventually move across a larger
portion of the Big Bend and north FL later this morning, with a
corresponding increase in the severe threat.
..Dean/Mosier.. 05/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
LAT...LON 30078558 30228446 30148378 29978345 29708365 29728416
29628452 29568484 29468514 29488551 30078558
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5/Tue-Wed -- Southeast OK/ArkLaTex to Lower MS/TN
Valleys...
Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase from the southern
Rockies to the Mid-South on Day 4/Tuesday as a southern stream
shortwave trough over the Southwest merges with an upper trough over
the Plains/Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will develop
over the southern Plains and slowly progress east in AR as a cold
front develops southeast across OK/AR and the Lower OH Valley. Ahead
of the front, rich Gulf moisture will return northward, and 60s to
near 70 F dewpoints are forecast by Tuesday afternoon/evening across
southeast OK and the ArkLaTex. Timing of thunderstorm development is
a bit uncertain as shortwave ridging may overspread the southern
Plains vicinity through afternoon. However, forcing for ascent
should increase with the approach of the surface front and as a
low-level jet increasing Tuesday evening. Moderate instability and
strong vertical shear should support severe thunderstorm activity
near the cold front from late afternoon into Tuesday night.
On Day 5/Wednesday, the Plains upper trough will migrate east,
extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by early
Thursday. The surface cold front will extend from the OH Valley into
north/central TX Wednesday morning and slowly progress southeast
through the period. Gulf moisture will return north and east across
the southern U.S. ahead of the front. While deep-layer flow will
largely be parallel to the surface front, moist and unstable airmass
ahead of the front should support some risk for severe
thunderstorms.
...Days 6-8/Thu-Sat...
A deepening surface low will develop northward across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday as a surface cold front
continues to shift east across much of the eastern U.S. While a
moist airmass will be in place across parts of the Southeast to the
Mid-Atlantic, it is uncertain how much destabilization will occur
due to possibly widespread thunderstorm activity and cloud cover
(particularly from the Mid-Atlantic northward). Large-scale ascent
will become increasingly displaced to the north across the
Southeast, and convection may tend to be anafrontal. Trends will be
monitored and severe probabilities could become necessary for parts
of the eastern U.S. on Thursday in later outlooks.
Severe potential will be limited on Friday as the prior cold frontal
passages clears out Gulf moisture and surface high pressure envelops
much of the eastern half of the U.S. Weak upper troughing could
overspread the Rockies and High Plains by the end of the period,
allowing for Gulf moisture return across the Plains and an increase
in thunderstorm potential.
Read more
