Storm Prediction Center

WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0367 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0367 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0367 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0367 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 366 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 212240Z - 220600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 366 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southeast Kansas Southern Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 540 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop this evening with the stronger thunderstorms likely posing a severe risk. A few supercells will initially pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado. Additional storms and consolidating outflow will lead to a greater severe-wind threat with time this evening. Severe gusts 60 to 70 mph capable of wind damage will become the primary hazard towards the late evening as this activity gradually pushes south and east. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles west northwest of Bartlesville OK to 45 miles northeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 363...WW 364...WW 365... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29020. ...Smith Read more

WW 367 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 212305Z - 220600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 367 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 605 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Southwest into Central Kansas * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 605 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are forecast to move southeast into the Watch area this evening with a mix of severe cells and linear clusters. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary severe hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. The severe-wind risk will likely become more prevalent towards the early to mid evening as upscale growth occurs over southwest Kansas. Severe gusts 60 to 80 mph are possible with the stronger storms and outflow surges. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Lamar CO to 50 miles south southeast of Russell KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 363...WW 364...WW 365...WW 366... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Smith Read more

MD 1234 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Areas affected...portions of northern into southwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 212219Z - 212315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase downstream of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364, over northern into southwestern KS in a few hours. Severe gusts/hail are likely, and a tornado is also possible. A Severe Thunderstorm watch will be needed soon to address the impending threat. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells with a history of severe gusts/hail continue to progress southeastward along a diffuse baroclinic zone, where strong instability and vertical wind shear reside. Per 22Z mesoanalysis, a plume of 8.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, atop upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints, is supporting 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE across southwestern into central KS. Coinciding with this strong buoyancy is 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that remain supercellular in this environment will remain capable of producing severe hail, including stones reaching 2-3 inches in diameter, and perhaps a tornado. However, with time, storms should develop into smaller line segments, where severe gusts (perhaps one or two exceeding 75 mph) will become the main threat. A Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 37790194 39329995 39959910 39969847 39719819 39329820 38699833 38179858 37779895 37479957 37310030 37240090 37290180 37790194 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1235 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1235 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0521 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...and much of southern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 212221Z - 212345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm is ongoing across southeast Kansas, with additional thunderstorms expected this afternoon/evening along and east of this storm. The overall environment will support severe potential with any of these storms and a watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...A remnant surface boundary, left over from the morning MCS/MCV (currently located over Illinois/Indiana) is currently located from northern Oklahoma northeast toward the greater St. Louis, MO, metro. Recent satellite imagery shows increasingly agitated cumulus development along this boundary, with an ongoing severe thunderstorm across southeast Kansas. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region, most likely developing east-northeast from ongoing convection across southeast Kansas. The environment along and south of this boundary is very unstable with MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg with effective deep-layer shear on the order 40-50 knots. Thus, any thunderstorm that does develop will have the potential to become supercellular. The low-level wind field is currently fairly weak, which should limit the tornado potential in the near term across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. However, strong instability in the presence of a surface boundary will yield some tornado potential. With time, congealing outflows should result in an increasing wind threat as the storms move east-southeast. A watch will likely be needed. ..Marsh/Smith.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 36859641 37649637 38029503 38349338 38499178 38519075 38119039 37549018 37019118 36739333 36669536 36629604 36859641 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0366 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0366 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 366 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 212240Z - 220600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 366 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southeast Kansas Southern Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 540 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop this evening with the stronger thunderstorms likely posing a severe risk. A few supercells will initially pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado. Additional storms and consolidating outflow will lead to a greater severe-wind threat with time this evening. Severe gusts 60 to 70 mph capable of wind damage will become the primary hazard towards the late evening as this activity gradually pushes south and east. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles west northwest of Bartlesville OK to 45 miles northeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 363...WW 364...WW 365... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1233 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Areas affected...Southern and Central Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 212123Z - 212300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The tornado threat is increasing across portions of southern Indiana as thunderstorms with a history of producing tornadoes across southern Illinois move east into the area. A tornado watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Several supercells with a history of producing tornadoes have developed this afternoon across portions of southern Illinois in association with a convectively augmented vorticity maximum moving east within zonal mid-level flow. Ahead of these supercells, a surface boundary is slowly lifting northward across portions of Indiana. To the south of this boundary, surface dewpoints have risen into the 60Fs to low 70Fs contributing to MLCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg. Along the boundary easterly low-level flow will maximize storm-relative helicity, as indicated by the Indianapolis VAD (KIND) which suggests around 300 m2/s2. The result will be a continued tornado threat this evening across portions of southern and central Indiana and a tornado watch will be required soon. ..Marsh/Smith.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...ILX... LAT...LON 39798785 40148739 40348673 40268550 39928483 39418459 38868482 38618545 38558629 38628775 39798785 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1232 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364... FOR EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1232 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...southwest Nebraska...and northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364... Valid 212033Z - 212230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail continues across eastern Colorado and into southwest Nebraska. However, upscale growth into an MCS is anticipated through early evening with an attendant uptick in severe wind potential across northwest Kansas. DISCUSSION...Multiple instances of 1.0 to 1.75 inch hail have been noted across the central High Plains over the past couple of hours as loosely organized splitting supercells continue to develop and mature. Based on recent radar trends, these cells are likely sufficiently spaced to maintain mostly discrete storm modes for the next hour or two, which will maintain the threat for large hail - especially along/near the eastern CO border where thermodynamic conditions are most favorable for very large (2 inch) hail. Beyond the next couple of hours, the combination of deviant storm motions and colliding outflow boundaries (at least one of which is already noted in reflectivity data from KFTG) will promote storm interactions and gradual upscale growth into one or more clusters. As this occurs, cold pool amalgamation/intensification within an environment featuring steep low-level lapse rates should promote increasing potential for severe wind gusts, including occasional gusts upwards of 75 mph. Per time-lagged HRRR/RRFS ensembles, this transition appears most likely to occur across east-central CO and into northwest KS during the 22-00 UTC time frame. ..Moore.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39040422 39320437 39570420 41360235 41620200 41670164 41610122 40830006 40539992 40200000 39910028 38990125 38690191 38570245 38530283 38530318 38590353 39040422 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad ridge centered over the Southwest US will dominate much of the Intermountain West's weather as the week begins. This pattern will reinforce warmer-than-normal and dry conditions, continuing to accelerate fuel desiccation across the region. This high centered near the AZ/NM borders will persist long enough that moisture will begin to advect north and eastward over the larger Four Corners region. Conversely, expansive troughing will dominate the Northeast, sending periodic cold fronts and widespread precipitation across the eastern United States to suppress regional fire threats there. The consensus among the latest long-term forecast guidance is that this pattern will be temporary with the Southwest high expected to weaken by Day 6/Friday as a large trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. As this high breaks down, potentially significant fire weather concerns will be possible Day 6/Friday through the weekend. ...Day 3/Tuesday... As high pressure builds over the Southwest, hot and dry (RHs at 5-15%) surface conditions will promote deep boundary layer mixing, contributing to increased west/southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. As such, a 70 percent probability of Critical wind/RH area (with the highest concern for the strongest winds) was introduced over far southern UT and northwest AZ. The existing area of 40 percent probability of Critical wind/RH was expanded over a more widespread area from southern NV to east of the Four Corners. ...Day 4/Wednesday and Day 5/Thursday... Persistent high pressure over the Southwest will eventually lead to increasing moisture wrapped in from the Gulf of California. It appears that this moisture will begin to reach eastern AZ, western NM, and far southwest CO on Day 4/Wednesday, followed by southern UT and western CO on Day 5/Thursday. As is typical with this pattern, hot and dry air at the surface will lag increasing moisture aloft, leading to high-based thunderstorms. Expect adjustments in time/space with future forecast issuances as the timing and placement of this potential moisture becomes more clear. While some uncertainty remains as to how much rainfall could accumulate, daily precipitation is expected to remain below 1/10 inch outside of particularly intense storms and generally under 1/4 inch where not orographically enhanced. Additionally, an area of 40 percent probability of Critical wind/RH was introduced over eastern NV where hot and dry surface conditions will combine with both southwesterly flow closer to the high pressure and a tightened surface pressure gradient from the approaching system to the northwest. ...Day 6/Friday through Day 8/Sunday... The aforementioned trough moving over the Pacific Northwest will dig southward as it comes onshore. A cold front will accompany this system as temperatures fall below normal for this time of year across much of the northwest third of the country. The threat will begin to be widespread over much of the Intermountain West on Day 6/Friday as the area is squeezed between the existing ridge and incoming trough. However, as the cold front progresses southeastward as the weekend progresses, sustained surface winds will have the potential to exceed 20-30 mph over portions of northern AZ, much of UT, and western CO. One question that remains is how far south will the trough dig...determining how strong the winds do become over the larger Four Corners region with recent lightning activity earlier in the forecast period. This pattern has potential to cause major fire weather concerns over a region of the country where dead fuels currently sit near or above 95th percentile ERCs. ..Stearns.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad ridge centered over the Southwest US will dominate much of the Intermountain West's weather as the week begins. This pattern will reinforce warmer-than-normal and dry conditions, continuing to accelerate fuel desiccation across the region. This high centered near the AZ/NM borders will persist long enough that moisture will begin to advect north and eastward over the larger Four Corners region. Conversely, expansive troughing will dominate the Northeast, sending periodic cold fronts and widespread precipitation across the eastern United States to suppress regional fire threats there. The consensus among the latest long-term forecast guidance is that this pattern will be temporary with the Southwest high expected to weaken by Day 6/Friday as a large trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. As this high breaks down, potentially significant fire weather concerns will be possible Day 6/Friday through the weekend. ...Day 3/Tuesday... As high pressure builds over the Southwest, hot and dry (RHs at 5-15%) surface conditions will promote deep boundary layer mixing, contributing to increased west/southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. As such, a 70 percent probability of Critical wind/RH area (with the highest concern for the strongest winds) was introduced over far southern UT and northwest AZ. The existing area of 40 percent probability of Critical wind/RH was expanded over a more widespread area from southern NV to east of the Four Corners. ...Day 4/Wednesday and Day 5/Thursday... Persistent high pressure over the Southwest will eventually lead to increasing moisture wrapped in from the Gulf of California. It appears that this moisture will begin to reach eastern AZ, western NM, and far southwest CO on Day 4/Wednesday, followed by southern UT and western CO on Day 5/Thursday. As is typical with this pattern, hot and dry air at the surface will lag increasing moisture aloft, leading to high-based thunderstorms. Expect adjustments in time/space with future forecast issuances as the timing and placement of this potential moisture becomes more clear. While some uncertainty remains as to how much rainfall could accumulate, daily precipitation is expected to remain below 1/10 inch outside of particularly intense storms and generally under 1/4 inch where not orographically enhanced. Additionally, an area of 40 percent probability of Critical wind/RH was introduced over eastern NV where hot and dry surface conditions will combine with both southwesterly flow closer to the high pressure and a tightened surface pressure gradient from the approaching system to the northwest. ...Day 6/Friday through Day 8/Sunday... The aforementioned trough moving over the Pacific Northwest will dig southward as it comes onshore. A cold front will accompany this system as temperatures fall below normal for this time of year across much of the northwest third of the country. The threat will begin to be widespread over much of the Intermountain West on Day 6/Friday as the area is squeezed between the existing ridge and incoming trough. However, as the cold front progresses southeastward as the weekend progresses, sustained surface winds will have the potential to exceed 20-30 mph over portions of northern AZ, much of UT, and western CO. One question that remains is how far south will the trough dig...determining how strong the winds do become over the larger Four Corners region with recent lightning activity earlier in the forecast period. This pattern has potential to cause major fire weather concerns over a region of the country where dead fuels currently sit near or above 95th percentile ERCs. ..Stearns.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad ridge centered over the Southwest US will dominate much of the Intermountain West's weather as the week begins. This pattern will reinforce warmer-than-normal and dry conditions, continuing to accelerate fuel desiccation across the region. This high centered near the AZ/NM borders will persist long enough that moisture will begin to advect north and eastward over the larger Four Corners region. Conversely, expansive troughing will dominate the Northeast, sending periodic cold fronts and widespread precipitation across the eastern United States to suppress regional fire threats there. The consensus among the latest long-term forecast guidance is that this pattern will be temporary with the Southwest high expected to weaken by Day 6/Friday as a large trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. As this high breaks down, potentially significant fire weather concerns will be possible Day 6/Friday through the weekend. ...Day 3/Tuesday... As high pressure builds over the Southwest, hot and dry (RHs at 5-15%) surface conditions will promote deep boundary layer mixing, contributing to increased west/southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. As such, a 70 percent probability of Critical wind/RH area (with the highest concern for the strongest winds) was introduced over far southern UT and northwest AZ. The existing area of 40 percent probability of Critical wind/RH was expanded over a more widespread area from southern NV to east of the Four Corners. ...Day 4/Wednesday and Day 5/Thursday... Persistent high pressure over the Southwest will eventually lead to increasing moisture wrapped in from the Gulf of California. It appears that this moisture will begin to reach eastern AZ, western NM, and far southwest CO on Day 4/Wednesday, followed by southern UT and western CO on Day 5/Thursday. As is typical with this pattern, hot and dry air at the surface will lag increasing moisture aloft, leading to high-based thunderstorms. Expect adjustments in time/space with future forecast issuances as the timing and placement of this potential moisture becomes more clear. While some uncertainty remains as to how much rainfall could accumulate, daily precipitation is expected to remain below 1/10 inch outside of particularly intense storms and generally under 1/4 inch where not orographically enhanced. Additionally, an area of 40 percent probability of Critical wind/RH was introduced over eastern NV where hot and dry surface conditions will combine with both southwesterly flow closer to the high pressure and a tightened surface pressure gradient from the approaching system to the northwest. ...Day 6/Friday through Day 8/Sunday... The aforementioned trough moving over the Pacific Northwest will dig southward as it comes onshore. A cold front will accompany this system as temperatures fall below normal for this time of year across much of the northwest third of the country. The threat will begin to be widespread over much of the Intermountain West on Day 6/Friday as the area is squeezed between the existing ridge and incoming trough. However, as the cold front progresses southeastward as the weekend progresses, sustained surface winds will have the potential to exceed 20-30 mph over portions of northern AZ, much of UT, and western CO. One question that remains is how far south will the trough dig...determining how strong the winds do become over the larger Four Corners region with recent lightning activity earlier in the forecast period. This pattern has potential to cause major fire weather concerns over a region of the country where dead fuels currently sit near or above 95th percentile ERCs. ..Stearns.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad ridge centered over the Southwest US will dominate much of the Intermountain West's weather as the week begins. This pattern will reinforce warmer-than-normal and dry conditions, continuing to accelerate fuel desiccation across the region. This high centered near the AZ/NM borders will persist long enough that moisture will begin to advect north and eastward over the larger Four Corners region. Conversely, expansive troughing will dominate the Northeast, sending periodic cold fronts and widespread precipitation across the eastern United States to suppress regional fire threats there. The consensus among the latest long-term forecast guidance is that this pattern will be temporary with the Southwest high expected to weaken by Day 6/Friday as a large trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. As this high breaks down, potentially significant fire weather concerns will be possible Day 6/Friday through the weekend. ...Day 3/Tuesday... As high pressure builds over the Southwest, hot and dry (RHs at 5-15%) surface conditions will promote deep boundary layer mixing, contributing to increased west/southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. As such, a 70 percent probability of Critical wind/RH area (with the highest concern for the strongest winds) was introduced over far southern UT and northwest AZ. The existing area of 40 percent probability of Critical wind/RH was expanded over a more widespread area from southern NV to east of the Four Corners. ...Day 4/Wednesday and Day 5/Thursday... Persistent high pressure over the Southwest will eventually lead to increasing moisture wrapped in from the Gulf of California. It appears that this moisture will begin to reach eastern AZ, western NM, and far southwest CO on Day 4/Wednesday, followed by southern UT and western CO on Day 5/Thursday. As is typical with this pattern, hot and dry air at the surface will lag increasing moisture aloft, leading to high-based thunderstorms. Expect adjustments in time/space with future forecast issuances as the timing and placement of this potential moisture becomes more clear. While some uncertainty remains as to how much rainfall could accumulate, daily precipitation is expected to remain below 1/10 inch outside of particularly intense storms and generally under 1/4 inch where not orographically enhanced. Additionally, an area of 40 percent probability of Critical wind/RH was introduced over eastern NV where hot and dry surface conditions will combine with both southwesterly flow closer to the high pressure and a tightened surface pressure gradient from the approaching system to the northwest. ...Day 6/Friday through Day 8/Sunday... The aforementioned trough moving over the Pacific Northwest will dig southward as it comes onshore. A cold front will accompany this system as temperatures fall below normal for this time of year across much of the northwest third of the country. The threat will begin to be widespread over much of the Intermountain West on Day 6/Friday as the area is squeezed between the existing ridge and incoming trough. However, as the cold front progresses southeastward as the weekend progresses, sustained surface winds will have the potential to exceed 20-30 mph over portions of northern AZ, much of UT, and western CO. One question that remains is how far south will the trough dig...determining how strong the winds do become over the larger Four Corners region with recent lightning activity earlier in the forecast period. This pattern has potential to cause major fire weather concerns over a region of the country where dead fuels currently sit near or above 95th percentile ERCs. ..Stearns.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A broad ridge centered over the Southwest US will dominate much of the Intermountain West's weather as the week begins. This pattern will reinforce warmer-than-normal and dry conditions, continuing to accelerate fuel desiccation across the region. This high centered near the AZ/NM borders will persist long enough that moisture will begin to advect north and eastward over the larger Four Corners region. Conversely, expansive troughing will dominate the Northeast, sending periodic cold fronts and widespread precipitation across the eastern United States to suppress regional fire threats there. The consensus among the latest long-term forecast guidance is that this pattern will be temporary with the Southwest high expected to weaken by Day 6/Friday as a large trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. As this high breaks down, potentially significant fire weather concerns will be possible Day 6/Friday through the weekend. ...Day 3/Tuesday... As high pressure builds over the Southwest, hot and dry (RHs at 5-15%) surface conditions will promote deep boundary layer mixing, contributing to increased west/southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. As such, a 70 percent probability of Critical wind/RH area (with the highest concern for the strongest winds) was introduced over far southern UT and northwest AZ. The existing area of 40 percent probability of Critical wind/RH was expanded over a more widespread area from southern NV to east of the Four Corners. ...Day 4/Wednesday and Day 5/Thursday... Persistent high pressure over the Southwest will eventually lead to increasing moisture wrapped in from the Gulf of California. It appears that this moisture will begin to reach eastern AZ, western NM, and far southwest CO on Day 4/Wednesday, followed by southern UT and western CO on Day 5/Thursday. As is typical with this pattern, hot and dry air at the surface will lag increasing moisture aloft, leading to high-based thunderstorms. Expect adjustments in time/space with future forecast issuances as the timing and placement of this potential moisture becomes more clear. While some uncertainty remains as to how much rainfall could accumulate, daily precipitation is expected to remain below 1/10 inch outside of particularly intense storms and generally under 1/4 inch where not orographically enhanced. Additionally, an area of 40 percent probability of Critical wind/RH was introduced over eastern NV where hot and dry surface conditions will combine with both southwesterly flow closer to the high pressure and a tightened surface pressure gradient from the approaching system to the northwest. ...Day 6/Friday through Day 8/Sunday... The aforementioned trough moving over the Pacific Northwest will dig southward as it comes onshore. A cold front will accompany this system as temperatures fall below normal for this time of year across much of the northwest third of the country. The threat will begin to be widespread over much of the Intermountain West on Day 6/Friday as the area is squeezed between the existing ridge and incoming trough. However, as the cold front progresses southeastward as the weekend progresses, sustained surface winds will have the potential to exceed 20-30 mph over portions of northern AZ, much of UT, and western CO. One question that remains is how far south will the trough dig...determining how strong the winds do become over the larger Four Corners region with recent lightning activity earlier in the forecast period. This pattern has potential to cause major fire weather concerns over a region of the country where dead fuels currently sit near or above 95th percentile ERCs. ..Stearns.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0364 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 364 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 364 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-095-115-121-125-212240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-212240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-029-031-049-057-063-069-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-117- 135-145-161-171-212240- NE Read more