Storm Prediction Center

WW 0365 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0365 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0364 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 364 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 364 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-095-115-121-125-212240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-212240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-029-031-049-057-063-069-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-117- 135-145-161-171-212240- NE Read more

WW 0365 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0365 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 364 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 211845Z - 220200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop and intensify over the watch area this afternoon, spreading southeastward with time. Large to very large hail is the main concern, but there will be an increasing risk of damaging winds this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Mullen NE to 50 miles south of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 363... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Hart Read more

WW 365 TORNADO IN 212145Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 365 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southern Indiana * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 545 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms with embedded supercells will likely move east into the Watch area this evening. A couple of supercells will pose a risk for tornadoes, including the possibility of a strong tornado. In addition to the tornado threat, scattered severe gusts 60 to 70 mph are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Bloomington IN to 60 miles southeast of Indianapolis IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 363...WW 364... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSE STL TO 20 SSW DNV. ..LYONS..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-051-055-059-065- 077-079-081-101-119-121-133-139-145-157-159-163-165-173-185-189- 191-193-199-212240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MONROE MOULTRIE PERRY RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SALINE SHELBY WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC051-083-125-129-153-167-212240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSE STL TO 20 SSW DNV. ..LYONS..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-051-055-059-065- 077-079-081-101-119-121-133-139-145-157-159-163-165-173-185-189- 191-193-199-212240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MONROE MOULTRIE PERRY RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SALINE SHELBY WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC051-083-125-129-153-167-212240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 363 TORNADO IL IN MO 211830Z - 220200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Southeast Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon across the watch area, with a few supercells expected. Damaging winds and tornadoes are possible in the strongest cells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles southwest of Scott Afb IL to 30 miles south of Terre Haute IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1231 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma...southern Kansas...and adjacent portions of southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 212001Z - 212200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Conditions are being monitored for thunderstorm development across northern Oklahoma, southern Kansas. While exact timing remains uncertain, watch issuance is likely by early evening once thunderstorms begin to mature within a favorable environment. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and GOES imagery shows the northward advancement of an outflow boundary across northern OK to the east of a surface low in place across the far northeast TX Panhandle. A recent 18 UTC RAOB from DDC and the presence of a gravity wave along the OK/KS border suggests that pockets of inhibition remain in place along/north of the boundary. However, GOES daytime RGB imagery shows a few patches of glaciating cumulus along and just north of the boundary to the southeast of the Wichita, KS area - likely due to isentropic ascent over the boundary. Continued heating through late afternoon will act to reduce any lingering inhibition and should promote increasing probabilities for surface-based thunderstorm development, especially given the very warm/moist air mass in place along and south of the boundary (MLCAPE recently analyzed near 3000 J/kg). Recent forecast soundings (validated by recent KINX VWP observations) depict a nearly zonal wind profile above 3 km with effective bulk shear values on the order of 45-55 knots. This wind profile will promote initial thunderstorm organization into supercells capable of producing large to very large hail. Weak low-level veering noted in regional VWPs may support some risk for a brief tornado, but generally weak flow through the boundary layer should modulate the overall tornado threat. Watch issuance will likely be needed, but timing and placement will be conditional on when and where intense thunderstorm development becomes more probable along the OK/KS border. ..Moore/Hart.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36419999 36700006 37039991 37379956 37509922 37859486 37759452 37469439 37009435 36639437 36409446 36269456 36239508 36139914 36239960 36419999 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1230 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 363... FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/ SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1230 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Areas affected...parts of south central/ southeastern Illinois and adjacent southwestern Indiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 363... Valid 211934Z - 212130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 363 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for one or two strong tornadoes may begin to maximize with evolving supercell structures across parts of southeastern Illinois, generally centered around the Effingham vicinity, by 4-6 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Two-hourly surface pressure falls on the order of 2+ mb have become focused along a corridor from Litchfield through Effingham and Lawrenceville, southwestward toward Mt. Vernon, downstream of the remnant eastward migrating MCV. Boundary-layer dew points are approaching 70F across this region, contributing to thermodynamic profiles with sizable buoyancy rooted near the surface. Coupled with enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 30-50 south to southwesterly 850-500 mb flow overspreading the region, the environment appears to be coming increasingly conducive to the evolution of supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes. Given the potential for concentrating ambient vertical vorticity, coupled with potentially strong near-surface upward accelerations, a strong tornado or two appears possible. ..Kerr.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39038944 39348924 39448771 38838707 38238796 38488836 38718883 39038944 Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 363 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-051-055-059-065- 077-079-081-101-119-121-133-135-139-145-157-159-163-165-173-185- 189-191-193-199-212140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PERRY RANDOLPH RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SALINE SHELBY WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC051-083-125-129-153-167-212140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening. ...20z Update Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook given the latest observational trends. Several clusters of strong thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of an MCV across the mid MS Valley. An observed messy convective mode should persist with a mix of bowing structures and transient supercells likely ahead of the MCV, and near the effective warm front from eastern IL into IN. Additional storm development is also possible behind the MCV along the remnant boundary into MO and eastern KS. This will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes where low-level flow is backed and hodographs are larger. Eventually upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters is likely later this evening/overnight into the OH valley with a continued risk for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes. ...KS/OK this evening/tonight... Severe storm development appears probable along the modified trailing outflow across northwest OK and southwest KS this afternoon into this evening. Sufficient vertical shear exists for supercells and organized clusters. With large buoyancy and steep low/mid-level lapse rates, large hail is likely with these strong updrafts. A brief tornado or two is also possible, owing to storm interactions and ambient vertical vorticity along the outflow boundary. Damaging wind potential will likely increase with storm consolidation, though the more cellular initial mode suggests this maybe somewhat gradual. These storms, and additional convection originating further north from the central High Plains, should persist overnight into central and southern OK, reaching the Red River Valley by 12z tomorrow morning with isolated severe potential. ..Lyons.. 06/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/ ...MO/IL/IN/KY... A long-lived band of thunderstorms currently extends from east-central MO into southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity is tracking into a region of increasingly warm/moist air where dewpoints are rising to near 70F and breaks in the clouds are contributing to moderate CAPE values. All CAM guidance suggests that storms along the line will intensify this afternoon and track eastward across southern IL/southern IN and northern KY. Low-level shear is quite strong, but somewhat veered. This increases uncertainty of storm mode between discrete supercells or bowing structures. It appears there will be a period of risk early in the event for tornadic supercells, followed by multiple linear storm segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Storms may remain severe as far east as southern OH and eastern KY overnight. Refer to MD #1228 for further short-term details. ...MO/KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned convection, an outflow boundary extends southwestward into central OK. Rapid clearing is occurring north of the boundary, where residual moisture and steep lapse rates will quickly destabilize the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by late afternoon in this zone and track slowly southeastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear and high CAPE will promote the risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two might also occur. ...NE/CO/KS... Low clouds are eroding across the NE Panhandle southward into eastern CO/western KS, where rapid afternoon destabilization should occur. A weak shortwave trough over eastern WY will rotate into the region this afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible, tracking southeastward across the risk area through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening. ...20z Update Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook given the latest observational trends. Several clusters of strong thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of an MCV across the mid MS Valley. An observed messy convective mode should persist with a mix of bowing structures and transient supercells likely ahead of the MCV, and near the effective warm front from eastern IL into IN. Additional storm development is also possible behind the MCV along the remnant boundary into MO and eastern KS. This will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes where low-level flow is backed and hodographs are larger. Eventually upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters is likely later this evening/overnight into the OH valley with a continued risk for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes. ...KS/OK this evening/tonight... Severe storm development appears probable along the modified trailing outflow across northwest OK and southwest KS this afternoon into this evening. Sufficient vertical shear exists for supercells and organized clusters. With large buoyancy and steep low/mid-level lapse rates, large hail is likely with these strong updrafts. A brief tornado or two is also possible, owing to storm interactions and ambient vertical vorticity along the outflow boundary. Damaging wind potential will likely increase with storm consolidation, though the more cellular initial mode suggests this maybe somewhat gradual. These storms, and additional convection originating further north from the central High Plains, should persist overnight into central and southern OK, reaching the Red River Valley by 12z tomorrow morning with isolated severe potential. ..Lyons.. 06/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/ ...MO/IL/IN/KY... A long-lived band of thunderstorms currently extends from east-central MO into southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity is tracking into a region of increasingly warm/moist air where dewpoints are rising to near 70F and breaks in the clouds are contributing to moderate CAPE values. All CAM guidance suggests that storms along the line will intensify this afternoon and track eastward across southern IL/southern IN and northern KY. Low-level shear is quite strong, but somewhat veered. This increases uncertainty of storm mode between discrete supercells or bowing structures. It appears there will be a period of risk early in the event for tornadic supercells, followed by multiple linear storm segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Storms may remain severe as far east as southern OH and eastern KY overnight. Refer to MD #1228 for further short-term details. ...MO/KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned convection, an outflow boundary extends southwestward into central OK. Rapid clearing is occurring north of the boundary, where residual moisture and steep lapse rates will quickly destabilize the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by late afternoon in this zone and track slowly southeastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear and high CAPE will promote the risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two might also occur. ...NE/CO/KS... Low clouds are eroding across the NE Panhandle southward into eastern CO/western KS, where rapid afternoon destabilization should occur. A weak shortwave trough over eastern WY will rotate into the region this afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible, tracking southeastward across the risk area through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening. ...20z Update Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook given the latest observational trends. Several clusters of strong thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of an MCV across the mid MS Valley. An observed messy convective mode should persist with a mix of bowing structures and transient supercells likely ahead of the MCV, and near the effective warm front from eastern IL into IN. Additional storm development is also possible behind the MCV along the remnant boundary into MO and eastern KS. This will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes where low-level flow is backed and hodographs are larger. Eventually upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters is likely later this evening/overnight into the OH valley with a continued risk for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes. ...KS/OK this evening/tonight... Severe storm development appears probable along the modified trailing outflow across northwest OK and southwest KS this afternoon into this evening. Sufficient vertical shear exists for supercells and organized clusters. With large buoyancy and steep low/mid-level lapse rates, large hail is likely with these strong updrafts. A brief tornado or two is also possible, owing to storm interactions and ambient vertical vorticity along the outflow boundary. Damaging wind potential will likely increase with storm consolidation, though the more cellular initial mode suggests this maybe somewhat gradual. These storms, and additional convection originating further north from the central High Plains, should persist overnight into central and southern OK, reaching the Red River Valley by 12z tomorrow morning with isolated severe potential. ..Lyons.. 06/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/ ...MO/IL/IN/KY... A long-lived band of thunderstorms currently extends from east-central MO into southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity is tracking into a region of increasingly warm/moist air where dewpoints are rising to near 70F and breaks in the clouds are contributing to moderate CAPE values. All CAM guidance suggests that storms along the line will intensify this afternoon and track eastward across southern IL/southern IN and northern KY. Low-level shear is quite strong, but somewhat veered. This increases uncertainty of storm mode between discrete supercells or bowing structures. It appears there will be a period of risk early in the event for tornadic supercells, followed by multiple linear storm segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Storms may remain severe as far east as southern OH and eastern KY overnight. Refer to MD #1228 for further short-term details. ...MO/KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned convection, an outflow boundary extends southwestward into central OK. Rapid clearing is occurring north of the boundary, where residual moisture and steep lapse rates will quickly destabilize the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by late afternoon in this zone and track slowly southeastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear and high CAPE will promote the risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two might also occur. ...NE/CO/KS... Low clouds are eroding across the NE Panhandle southward into eastern CO/western KS, where rapid afternoon destabilization should occur. A weak shortwave trough over eastern WY will rotate into the region this afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible, tracking southeastward across the risk area through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening. ...20z Update Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook given the latest observational trends. Several clusters of strong thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of an MCV across the mid MS Valley. An observed messy convective mode should persist with a mix of bowing structures and transient supercells likely ahead of the MCV, and near the effective warm front from eastern IL into IN. Additional storm development is also possible behind the MCV along the remnant boundary into MO and eastern KS. This will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes where low-level flow is backed and hodographs are larger. Eventually upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters is likely later this evening/overnight into the OH valley with a continued risk for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes. ...KS/OK this evening/tonight... Severe storm development appears probable along the modified trailing outflow across northwest OK and southwest KS this afternoon into this evening. Sufficient vertical shear exists for supercells and organized clusters. With large buoyancy and steep low/mid-level lapse rates, large hail is likely with these strong updrafts. A brief tornado or two is also possible, owing to storm interactions and ambient vertical vorticity along the outflow boundary. Damaging wind potential will likely increase with storm consolidation, though the more cellular initial mode suggests this maybe somewhat gradual. These storms, and additional convection originating further north from the central High Plains, should persist overnight into central and southern OK, reaching the Red River Valley by 12z tomorrow morning with isolated severe potential. ..Lyons.. 06/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/ ...MO/IL/IN/KY... A long-lived band of thunderstorms currently extends from east-central MO into southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity is tracking into a region of increasingly warm/moist air where dewpoints are rising to near 70F and breaks in the clouds are contributing to moderate CAPE values. All CAM guidance suggests that storms along the line will intensify this afternoon and track eastward across southern IL/southern IN and northern KY. Low-level shear is quite strong, but somewhat veered. This increases uncertainty of storm mode between discrete supercells or bowing structures. It appears there will be a period of risk early in the event for tornadic supercells, followed by multiple linear storm segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Storms may remain severe as far east as southern OH and eastern KY overnight. Refer to MD #1228 for further short-term details. ...MO/KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned convection, an outflow boundary extends southwestward into central OK. Rapid clearing is occurring north of the boundary, where residual moisture and steep lapse rates will quickly destabilize the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by late afternoon in this zone and track slowly southeastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear and high CAPE will promote the risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two might also occur. ...NE/CO/KS... Low clouds are eroding across the NE Panhandle southward into eastern CO/western KS, where rapid afternoon destabilization should occur. A weak shortwave trough over eastern WY will rotate into the region this afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible, tracking southeastward across the risk area through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening. ...20z Update Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook given the latest observational trends. Several clusters of strong thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of an MCV across the mid MS Valley. An observed messy convective mode should persist with a mix of bowing structures and transient supercells likely ahead of the MCV, and near the effective warm front from eastern IL into IN. Additional storm development is also possible behind the MCV along the remnant boundary into MO and eastern KS. This will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes where low-level flow is backed and hodographs are larger. Eventually upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters is likely later this evening/overnight into the OH valley with a continued risk for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes. ...KS/OK this evening/tonight... Severe storm development appears probable along the modified trailing outflow across northwest OK and southwest KS this afternoon into this evening. Sufficient vertical shear exists for supercells and organized clusters. With large buoyancy and steep low/mid-level lapse rates, large hail is likely with these strong updrafts. A brief tornado or two is also possible, owing to storm interactions and ambient vertical vorticity along the outflow boundary. Damaging wind potential will likely increase with storm consolidation, though the more cellular initial mode suggests this maybe somewhat gradual. These storms, and additional convection originating further north from the central High Plains, should persist overnight into central and southern OK, reaching the Red River Valley by 12z tomorrow morning with isolated severe potential. ..Lyons.. 06/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/ ...MO/IL/IN/KY... A long-lived band of thunderstorms currently extends from east-central MO into southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity is tracking into a region of increasingly warm/moist air where dewpoints are rising to near 70F and breaks in the clouds are contributing to moderate CAPE values. All CAM guidance suggests that storms along the line will intensify this afternoon and track eastward across southern IL/southern IN and northern KY. Low-level shear is quite strong, but somewhat veered. This increases uncertainty of storm mode between discrete supercells or bowing structures. It appears there will be a period of risk early in the event for tornadic supercells, followed by multiple linear storm segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Storms may remain severe as far east as southern OH and eastern KY overnight. Refer to MD #1228 for further short-term details. ...MO/KS/OK/AR... In the wake of the aforementioned convection, an outflow boundary extends southwestward into central OK. Rapid clearing is occurring north of the boundary, where residual moisture and steep lapse rates will quickly destabilize the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by late afternoon in this zone and track slowly southeastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear and high CAPE will promote the risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two might also occur. ...NE/CO/KS... Low clouds are eroding across the NE Panhandle southward into eastern CO/western KS, where rapid afternoon destabilization should occur. A weak shortwave trough over eastern WY will rotate into the region this afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible, tracking southeastward across the risk area through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will drift southeast to along the international border with an attending belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. Farther east, a short-wave trough trailing an upper low over Ontario will move through the Mid-Atlantic. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast. ...Central and southern High Plains... Despite the potential for early-day storms across portions of NE, TX, and OK, the EML is expected to remain intact over the central High Plains. When coupled with an increasingly moist upslope air mass in the vicinity of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorms are expected to form along favored terrain and pre-existing surface boundaries amidst a kinematic environment featuring vertically veering winds with height with sufficient vertical shear to support supercells capable of large to very large hail. The nocturnal strengthening of a low-level jet over western parts of KS, OK, and TX may favor upscale growth of storms into a forward-propagating MCS Tuesday evening with an associated increase in severe-wind-gust potential. ...Upper Mississippi Valley into the mid Missouri Valley... Latest model data are in good agreement in depicting areas of showers and storms lingering through much of the day across the pre-frontal warm sector. Vertical shear is forecast to be sufficiently strong to support organized storm modes, especially across the upper MS Valley. However, the potential for clouds and precipitation to limit air mass destabilization leads to uncertainty in the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, the low severe-weather probabilities will be maintained with this forecast update. ...Middle and southern Atlantic Coast into the central Gulf Coast States... A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front. While poor low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit a more robust damaging-wind threat, low severe-weather probabilities may eventually be added once details in storm evolution become more clear. ..Mead.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will drift southeast to along the international border with an attending belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. Farther east, a short-wave trough trailing an upper low over Ontario will move through the Mid-Atlantic. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast. ...Central and southern High Plains... Despite the potential for early-day storms across portions of NE, TX, and OK, the EML is expected to remain intact over the central High Plains. When coupled with an increasingly moist upslope air mass in the vicinity of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorms are expected to form along favored terrain and pre-existing surface boundaries amidst a kinematic environment featuring vertically veering winds with height with sufficient vertical shear to support supercells capable of large to very large hail. The nocturnal strengthening of a low-level jet over western parts of KS, OK, and TX may favor upscale growth of storms into a forward-propagating MCS Tuesday evening with an associated increase in severe-wind-gust potential. ...Upper Mississippi Valley into the mid Missouri Valley... Latest model data are in good agreement in depicting areas of showers and storms lingering through much of the day across the pre-frontal warm sector. Vertical shear is forecast to be sufficiently strong to support organized storm modes, especially across the upper MS Valley. However, the potential for clouds and precipitation to limit air mass destabilization leads to uncertainty in the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, the low severe-weather probabilities will be maintained with this forecast update. ...Middle and southern Atlantic Coast into the central Gulf Coast States... A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front. While poor low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit a more robust damaging-wind threat, low severe-weather probabilities may eventually be added once details in storm evolution become more clear. ..Mead.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will drift southeast to along the international border with an attending belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. Farther east, a short-wave trough trailing an upper low over Ontario will move through the Mid-Atlantic. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast. ...Central and southern High Plains... Despite the potential for early-day storms across portions of NE, TX, and OK, the EML is expected to remain intact over the central High Plains. When coupled with an increasingly moist upslope air mass in the vicinity of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorms are expected to form along favored terrain and pre-existing surface boundaries amidst a kinematic environment featuring vertically veering winds with height with sufficient vertical shear to support supercells capable of large to very large hail. The nocturnal strengthening of a low-level jet over western parts of KS, OK, and TX may favor upscale growth of storms into a forward-propagating MCS Tuesday evening with an associated increase in severe-wind-gust potential. ...Upper Mississippi Valley into the mid Missouri Valley... Latest model data are in good agreement in depicting areas of showers and storms lingering through much of the day across the pre-frontal warm sector. Vertical shear is forecast to be sufficiently strong to support organized storm modes, especially across the upper MS Valley. However, the potential for clouds and precipitation to limit air mass destabilization leads to uncertainty in the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, the low severe-weather probabilities will be maintained with this forecast update. ...Middle and southern Atlantic Coast into the central Gulf Coast States... A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front. While poor low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit a more robust damaging-wind threat, low severe-weather probabilities may eventually be added once details in storm evolution become more clear. ..Mead.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will drift southeast to along the international border with an attending belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. Farther east, a short-wave trough trailing an upper low over Ontario will move through the Mid-Atlantic. In the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast. ...Central and southern High Plains... Despite the potential for early-day storms across portions of NE, TX, and OK, the EML is expected to remain intact over the central High Plains. When coupled with an increasingly moist upslope air mass in the vicinity of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorms are expected to form along favored terrain and pre-existing surface boundaries amidst a kinematic environment featuring vertically veering winds with height with sufficient vertical shear to support supercells capable of large to very large hail. The nocturnal strengthening of a low-level jet over western parts of KS, OK, and TX may favor upscale growth of storms into a forward-propagating MCS Tuesday evening with an associated increase in severe-wind-gust potential. ...Upper Mississippi Valley into the mid Missouri Valley... Latest model data are in good agreement in depicting areas of showers and storms lingering through much of the day across the pre-frontal warm sector. Vertical shear is forecast to be sufficiently strong to support organized storm modes, especially across the upper MS Valley. However, the potential for clouds and precipitation to limit air mass destabilization leads to uncertainty in the extent of the severe-weather threat. As such, the low severe-weather probabilities will be maintained with this forecast update. ...Middle and southern Atlantic Coast into the central Gulf Coast States... A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front. While poor low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to limit a more robust damaging-wind threat, low severe-weather probabilities may eventually be added once details in storm evolution become more clear. ..Mead.. 06/21/2026 Read more