Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Afternoon Update... Recent guidance has trended towards a more accelerated cold frontal progression across the northern Plains on Saturday afternoon, resulting in minor adjustments to the Elevated risk area. While the cold front will be dry, increasing cloud cover along and behind the front will allow RH to remain somewhat marginal between 25-35 percent in southeastern MT and south-central ND. In far northeastern WY and northwestern SD, a much drier airmass will exist for a few hours ahead of the front, with RH between 10-20 percent before rising as the front passes. However, the driest air and stronger winds do not overlap, precluding the introduction of critical highlights at this time. Very strong northerly winds of 15-25 mph (gusts up to 30 mph) are likely for several hours following the frontal passage, supportive of Elevated fire weather conditions. In FL, Elevated highlights have been expanded slightly to account for a broader region of sustained west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph and RH of less than 35 percent. An eastward progressing shortwave will phase with an amplifying upper trough over the Eastern Seaboard, cultivating an elongated surface low to develop east of the Carolinas coastline. A strong 30-50 kt 700-850 mb jet is expected to develop over central FL in the wake of the departing low, yet expansive high cloud cover and increasing mid/low clouds along the incoming front may prevent deeper mixing. However, in sporadic areas that experience partly cloudy skies, wind gusts of up to 30 mph across central FL could mix down to the surface, exacerbating any new/existing fires. Wetting rainfall behind the frontal passage should provide relief to the fire environment into the overnight hours. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/01/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft also strengthens. This will drive a cold front into the Gulf, though gusty winds and dry conditions are expected ahead of it over parts of FL. To the west of the upper trough, northwesterly flow will persist over the Plains ahead of a ridge over the Great Basin. A dry cold front will move southward across the northern Plains supporting dry and breezy conditions into parts of the Dakotas/MT. ...FL... Another day of dry and breezy conditions is expected for portions of central and southern FL. Surface winds should be somewhat stronger than Friday as the upper trough over the eastern US deepens and flow aloft increases. Surface gusts of 10-20 mph are possible amid RH below 35%. Area fuels remain quite dry with little recent rainfall and ERC values above the 95th percentile. Fire-weather concerns should end with the frontal passage and some light rainfall possible into the evening and overnight. ...Northern Plains... On the backside of the broader eastern US trough, a subtle shortwave will support a weak surface cyclone along a cold front moving out southern Canada. Gusty northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected with the front. With little surface moisture in place, afternoon RH values below 20% are likely. Combined with dry fuels, the dry/breezy conditions will likely support a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns across southwestern ND, northwestern SD and southeastern MT, where recent rainfall has been minimal and fuels remain dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern Missouri, southeast Iowa and central Illinois on Sunday. ...Mid-MS Valley... Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region on the back side of an eastern U.S. upper trough. Cold temperatures aloft (near -20 C at 500 mb) will foster steep midlevel lapse rates and support moderate MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. However, boundary layer moisture is expected to be limited by a prior cold front passage as modified Gulf moisture remains well offshore. Surface dewpoints are generally forecast to be in the 50s as temperatures warm into the 70s. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon within the unstable airmass amid strong west/northwesterly deep-layer flow. Some forecast guidance depicts modest capping across the region while large-scale ascent remains nebulous. If storms can develop and be maintained, a risk for strong wind gusts and hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 05/01/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri May 1 06:20:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0631 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0631 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Areas affected...Parts of south-central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 010600Z - 010830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging gusts will continue overnight. DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of south-central TX as of 06 UTC, with occasional elevated supercells noted. This activity continues to develop north of a nearly stationary surface front, and may persist through much of the overnight as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches the region from northern Mexico. While midlevel lapse rates (as observed in the 00Z CRP sounding and analyzed by the RAP) are not particularly steep, rich moisture above the frontal inversion is supporting MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg where storms are ongoing. Strong mid/upper-level westerly flow is resulting in effective shear of 60+ kt, more than sufficient for organized convection. Large hail and localized damaging gusts will continue to be possible with the strongest storms overnight. A recent elevated storm with hail near Houston suggests that some severe potential may extend farther north than analyzed MUCAPE would indicate, though storms that track farther south (closer to the front) will have access to stronger buoyancy, and perhaps a localized very large hail threat. ..Dean/Mosier.. 05/01/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29270104 29689823 29629692 29399618 29059603 28609608 28299670 28009753 27769866 27729927 27680001 29270104 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening. ...FL vicinity... An upper trough over the MS Valley vicinity will pivot east across the Southeast on Saturday. Strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow associated with this system will overspread the region. Deep-layer flow will weaken with southward extent across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon, but 850-500 mb southwesterly flow is forecast to remain robust across southern GA into northern/central FL for much of the day. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented across the NC/SC coastal plain, extending southwestward to near the FL/GA line and offshore across the north-central Gulf. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place. Convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front Saturday morning. Current CAMs guidance varies with regard to storm mode and intensity early in the period, with the 00z HRRR being a notable outlier showing a small but well organized bowing MCS across the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA. Most of the rest of the CAMs guidance trends toward thunderstorm clusters. The low-level jet will be favorable for organized convection, and an organized linear system is possible, but uncertain. Downstream from early-period convection, upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will aid in modest destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur MLCAPE may increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the surface boundary, so some potential for undercutting convection by the front is possible. Nevertheless, given the strength of deep layer flow and strong vertical shear amid sufficient instability, severe storms posing a risk for damaging wind gusts is possible. If any more discrete convection can develop, isolated hail is also possible. The tornado risk is less certain given a weakening low-level jet with time, questions regarding storm mode, and overall uncertainty in low-level destabilization. ..Leitman.. 05/01/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas, and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward across northern Mexico today, as a jet streak ahead of the trough translates eastward into the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain over south Texas extending eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Large-scale ascent ahead of the trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across the post-frontal airmass in the southern Texas Hill Country. Storms will develop and move eastward across the middle and upper Texas Coastal Plain during the morning and afternoon. Moderate instability is expected to be in place near the front today, aided by surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. In addition, the mid-level jet will create strong deep-layer shear favorable for a few rotating storms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. This potential will be greatest along the instability gradient across the middle Texas Coast to the north of Corpus Christi. The severe threat is expected to gradually end from west to east during the late afternoon as the stronger instability shifts offshore into the Gulf. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the western Gulf Coast states this evening, as the entrance region of a mid-level jet overspreads the region. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent will support scattered thunderstorm development from this afternoon into tonight. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60 F in the immediate coastal areas of southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama will contribute to sufficient instability for isolated severe storms. A few of the stronger storms could produce strong wind gusts and hail. The severe threat could increase late this evening into the overnight, especially if a convective cold pool can organize in the coastal areas. If this conditional scenario materializes, then wind damage would become the primary threat. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/01/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 30 06:00:03 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 30 06:00:03 UTC 2026.

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across middle Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon through Friday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output offers little change concerning the forecast evolution of the large-scale pattern through this period. Substantive amplification within the split westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific still appears probable Friday through Friday night, including building ridging at mid-levels along an axis west of 140W longitude into northwestern British Columbia, and on a larger-scale eastward across the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies. Within the larger-scale ridging, a modest mid-level trough and developing embedded low are forecast to slowly dig to the west of the U.S. Pacific coast. At the same time, broad upper ridging may gradually build across the subtropical eastern Pacific toward Baja California. Downstream, a confluent regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, and likely become enhanced at mid-levels across the southern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as short wave troughing digs to the southwest of an elongated area of lower heights slowly shifting eastward through the Ontario/Quebec/Great Lakes and Northeast vicinity. A short wave perturbation reaching the Texas Big Bend vicinity by 12Z Friday probably will undergo shearing as it progresses through the confluence to the south of the digging trough. However, as a reinforcing cool surge noses southward to the lee of the southern Rockies, across and south/southeast of the Texas Big Bend, guidance suggests that forcing for ascent may remain sufficient to support a developing wave along a stalled frontal zone, across middle Texas coastal areas through the eastern Gulf coast vicinity Friday afternoon through Friday night. ...Middle Texas coastal plain through western Florida Panhandle... Large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by warm advection along and to the cool side of the surface front, may support a swath of mostly weak thunderstorm activity across much of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night. Forecast soundings continue to indicate thermodynamic profiles with little potential to support severe hail and wind, except perhaps in immediate proximity to the surface front. Warm elevated mixed-layer air, particularly across parts of Deep South Texas, may tend to inhibit thunderstorm initiation to the south of the front. Based on latest model output, severe weather potential for this period appears a bit more conditional, dependent upon both the evolution of the surface wave and the degree of destabilization along the frontal zone, which remain uncertain. However, it still appears possible that strengthening deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent near the frontal wave could support isolated supercell development across the middle Texas coastal plain by Friday afternoon, across southeastern Louisiana parishes by late Friday evening, and into the western Florida Panhandle toward 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 04/30/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of southwest and south-central Texas. ...Southwest and South-central Texas... At mid-levels, a low will move across northern Mexico this afternoon into tonight, as a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet ejects eastward across the southern Plains. In response, large-scale ascent will increase over parts of southwest Texas this evening, supporting scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight as a cluster of convection moves eastward into south-central Texas. These storms will be located to the north of a quasi-stationary front, and will be elevated in nature. Late evening forecast soundings in southwest Texas have steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (exceeding 7.5 C/km), with effective shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment will likely support an isolated large hail threat, mainly if a supercell can develop. ..Broyles/Moore.. 04/30/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A ridge of high pressure will shift east over the Great Basin as a closed low develops offshore the Pacific Northwest. An amplifying upper trough across the Eastern Seaboard will dig southward and amalgamate with a subtropical shortwave traversing the Gulf Coast region, further enhancing westerly flow aloft for much of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread precipitation over the southern Plains on Friday is expected to provide much needed relief to an extensively dry fuelscape. Prolonged dry and breezy conditions across the Florida Peninsula will continue fire weather concerns where drought-stressed fuels exist. ...Central Florida... Ahead of a stalled frontal boundary draped over northern FL, steady westerly flow and a relatively dry airmass amid receptive fuels will pose a fire weather threat on Friday afternoon for the FL Peninsula. In response to increasing subtropical moisture aloft, high cloud cover will build across the Peninsula throughout the afternoon. However, some breaks in the clouds should allow for deeper mixing into a dry boundary layer. Elevated highlights have been introduced where RH values are expected to drop between 25-35 percent at peak heating while westerly winds increase to 10 mph atop dry fuels. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level Pacific low will move onshore the Baja Peninsula and transition into an eastward projecting shortwave. Downstream, a robust westerly 50-70 kt jet will emerge across central TX extending into the Southeast this afternoon. Ample Pacific moisture transport will encourage widespread wetting rains and a reduced fire weather threat across much of the central and southern High Plains. Broad upper troughing will become established over the Northeast, anchored by a persistent closed upper-level low over southern Ontario. In the Southeast, a weak, southward propagating weak cold front is expected to stall over southern GA and northern FL, increasing precipitation chances to where extensive drought and receptive fuels remain. Conversely, high pressure ahead of this front will promote a warm, dry airmass over Central FL where fire weather concerns reemerge amid a very dry fuelscape. ...Central Florida... Surface high pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions for much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon ahead of a slow-moving, quasi-stationary cold front draped across the Gulf Coast and northern FL. A few thunderstorms are possible along this boundary, mainly along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Lightning ignitions are possible in areas that do not see sufficient rainfall, and resultant gusty/erratic outflow winds from thunderstorms could further exacerbate any new/ongoing fires. South of the front, an Elevated fire weather threat exists where westerly winds of up to 10 mph will partially overlap a region of 25-35 percent RH amid drought stressed fuels. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 29 12:32:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 29 12:32:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms should impact a corridor from parts of Texas to the Gulf Coast states today. Scattered damaging winds and large hail are the main threats, with isolated very large hail possible across portions of Texas. ...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A broad zone of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will persist today over much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Multiple weak embedded perturbations aloft moving from northern Mexico across the southern Plains should encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the day along/near a surface front draped from west-central TX to southern AR. A rather moist low-level airmass remains in place along/south of this boundary, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop this moisture are supporting up to 2000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE across TX, with somewhat lesser values into the lower MS Valley. Current expectations are for a gradual increase in convective coverage and intensity this morning through the afternoon as the weak mid-level shortwave impulses develop eastward across the warm sector, with multiple zones of initiation possible along/near the front. Regardless of where thunderstorms form, the moderate to very strong instability and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper levels should support a threat for large hail with any persistent supercells. This hail threat should be greater across TX (with isolated 2+ inch diameter hailstones possible here), but isolated severe hail may occur as far east as the central/southern AL vicinity. A tendency for thunderstorms to cluster and pose a greater damaging wind threat may focus across parts of the lower MS Valley, generally along/southwest of ongoing convection occurring this morning in east-central MS to northern/central AL. Given increased confidence in convection initiating and being sustained, a Slight Risk for the hail/wind threat has been introduced from parts of TX to southern AL with this update. ...Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... Within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Midwest, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening in tandem with an eastward-moving surface cold front. Only modest boundary layer moisture is present across the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s. Filtered diurnal heating will result in generally 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE (locally greater possible in NC). Despite this weak instability, strong deep-layer shear should aid in transient organization of the more robust cores that can form. An isolated threat for hail and damaging winds remains apparent. 0-1 km SRH around 100-150 m2/s2 in proximity to a weak surface low could also support a brief tornado. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/29/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range guidance, in particular the ECENS and GEFS, generally maintains forecast trends of prior runs concerning the evolution of the large-scale features within the prevailing split flow through this weekend into early next week. It appears that at least a transient blocking high may evolve within amplified ridging offshore of the British Columbia and adjacent Pacific Northwest coast. To its south-southeast a notable mid-level low is forecast to evolve within initial troughing slowly digging toward the U.S. Pacific coast, with the low bottoming out offshore of the central/ southern California coast by early next week. Downstream, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will be maintained, with lowest heights perhaps reforming west-northwestward from southwestern Quebec toward southern Hudson Bay/northwestern Ontario, contributing to the maintenance of a confluent regime across and east of the Rockies. Shorter wavelength developments within this pattern remain more uncertain, particularly by the early to middle portion of next week, when it appears that the offshore low will begin to progress inland across California and the southern Sierra Nevada. Depending on the timing of the inland progressing mid-level cold core with respect to diurnal heating, this could be accompanied by relatively minor severe weather potential across parts of the San Joaquin Valley next Monday or Tuesday. Downstream, southerly moist return flow into at least the southern through central Great Plains, associated with deepening lee surface troughing, may contribute to destabilization beneath building mid-level ridging across and east of the southern Rockies. This might be accompanied by increasing potential for at least widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development on Tuesday. Guidance suggests potential for more widespread organized severe thunderstorm development could increase by Wednesday, but much will depend on short wave developments which become rather uncertain by this time. Read more

MD 0594 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...central parts of Mississippi and Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281550Z - 281745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds and large hail is expected to increase across the area this afternoon. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have persisted through much of the morning across the discussion area with that activity being driven by modest low-level warm advection occurring along and to the north of an outflow boundary extending from around Greenwood, MS to north of Selma and Montgomery in Alabama. The 12z JAN sounding revealed the eastern edge of the elevated-mixed layer has spread east into the lower MS Valley, which when coupled with a moist boundary layer is resulting in estimated MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg as of 15z. The 12z CAMs offer various scenarios with respect specific details on thunderstorm evolution today. Some solutions suggest in situ storm intensification/coalescence into smaller, forward propagating complexes, while others indicate the primary severe weather threat being associated with a complex of storms arriving from the ArkLaTex later today. Regardless, the general notion is for a gradual increase in surface-based storm coverage and intensity in the vicinity of the outflow boundary this afternoon. Relatively strong, mid/upper-level flow evident in the 12z JAN/BMX soundings will support the potential for supercells and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat is somewhat conditional and likely tied to any storms that can favorably interact with the outflow boundary. ..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32979029 33789030 33978939 33648785 33218626 32428618 32398761 32748957 32979029 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0595 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTH OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0595 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...North Texas and far south Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281707Z - 281900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected to become increasingly likely this afternoon with the potential for very large hail and a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis places a surface low over northwest TX with an attendant outflow boundary (remnant from early-day storms) stretching east across north TX, to the north of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. A dryline was becoming better defined from the vicinity of the surface low south-southwest through the TX Big Country into eastern Permian Basin into Concho Valley. Latest trends in visible satellite imagery indicate a developing cumulus field in the vicinity of the surface triple point where objective analysis suggests that MLCAPE has increased to as high as 3500-4000 J/kg with decreasing cap strength. Short-term model guidance is in reasonably good agreement in depicting the development of one or multiple supercells from the vicinity of the triple point east along the outflow boundary by as early as 19z. Given the magnitude of buoyancy and the presence of a strong mid/upper-level wind field across the southern Plains today, the setup appears favorable for long-lived storms capable of very large hail (upwards of 3-4" in diameter) as the primary hazard. Modest low-level shear currently being sampled by the KFWS VWP and evident in plan-view objective fields may tend to limit the overall tornado potential. However, given that expected storm motions for a right-moving supercell is generally along the orientation of the outflow boundary, the potential for a few tornadoes appears to be greatest with any storms that can favorably interact with that boundary. ..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33019942 33339956 33939917 34119860 34109699 33929609 33099603 32909617 32829677 32899854 33019942 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... Have upgraded portions of North Texas to a Moderate Risk for what is anticipated to be a semi-focused sub-regional corridor of supercells including very large hail potential along with some damaging wind/tornado risk centered on mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening. First, a loosely organized complex of storms continues to progress east-northeastward along the Red River of southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas and broader parts of eastern Oklahoma at late morning. Additional increasingly surface-based development seems probable on this near-frontal zone and associated moist axis and thermal gradient that extends east-northeastward to the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss. This may include supercells as well as the possibility of an upscale-growing complex. Other initially elevated severe storms are expected to continue and increase today from northeast Oklahoma across the Ozarks toward parts of the Mid-South/Mississippi Valley. Large hail is the initial risk, but a surface-based storm risk could develop pending boundary layer warming. Broadly speaking outside on ongoing storms, a strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. This is beneath relatively strong winds aloft, particularly in mid/high-levels based on morning upper-air data. Additional intense surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple point in north-central Texas towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong. Additional severe storms are expected as far east as Mississippi and Alabama today -- see Mesoscale Discussion 594 for short-term details. An additional secondary round of upscale-growing storms with increasing damaging wind potential could also move into this same region late today, or more so tonight. ..Guyer/Chalmers.. 04/28/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...Southwest and Southern Plains... Robust westerly flow aloft will persist today over the Southwest and Southern Plains as a low amplitude upper trough ejects into the Central Plains. Minimal changes to the Critical highlighted area in portions of eastern NM and western TX were needed, where west winds of 20-25 mph and single digit RH overlapping dry fuels will align through the peak afternoon heating. Latest model guidance and surface observation trends suggest limited movement of a nearly stationary frontal boundary and associated modified air mass stretched across southeastern CO into the TX panhandle as the afternoon progresses. This should reduce the northeastward extent of fire-effective weather conditions today, where Elevated Highlights have been trimmed. ...Upstate New York and much of Vermont... South winds continue to increase across the northeastern U.S. south of deep surface low in eastern Ontario. RH trends are also lower, currently in the 20-30% range, with further reductions close to 20% expected by late afternoon, despite increasing cloud cover. Fuels remain quite receptive with ERC values in the 90th to 97th percentiles across portions of the Northeast. Extended Elevated Highlights into central NY to include the Adirondacks and Green Mountains in VT to account for the more expansive dry air mass in place across the region. ..Williams.. 04/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... As a low pressure system off the West Coast slowly approaches Baja CA, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will traverse the High Plains encouraging strong westerly mid-level flow. Fire weather conditions will continue for portions of western NM into the southern Plains as a result of downslope warming and boundary layer mixing. A deepening surface low will pass over the Great Lakes region into southern Ontario, assisting in the breakdown of upper ridging along the Eastern Seaboard. Increasing low-level southerly flow ahead of an incoming trough and associated cold front will allow for fire weather concerns to emerge in Upstate NY and western VT amid a very dry airmass. ...Southern Plains... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this afternoon where a dry airmass and strong winds overlap a region of receptive fuels. Widespread west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph coupled with RH falling to 10-20 percent atop a dry fuelscape will increase fire spread potential for any new and/or ongoing wildfires. More intense wind belts of 20-25 mph aligning with RH reductions close to 10 percent yield Critical fire weather conditions across east-central and southeastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. ...Upstate New York and Western Vermont... As surface pressure gradients tighten surrounding a surface low positioned over central/eastern Ontario, southerly winds are expected to reach 10-15 mph with localized/terrain enhanced 20 mph corridors likely. Mid-upper level cloud cover will increase this morning through the afternoon hours, potentially limiting deeper mixing. However, RH of 25-35 percent (locally near 20 percent) are still expected by early afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will align amid dry fuels to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across upstate NY and western VT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more