Storm Prediction Center

WW 0168 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW SPS TO 15 WNW LTS. ..MEAD..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-031-033-049-065-067-069-085-095-099-123-137- 141-281440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-237-337-485-487-503-281440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0168 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW SPS TO 15 WNW LTS. ..MEAD..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-031-033-049-065-067-069-085-095-099-123-137- 141-281440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-237-337-485-487-503-281440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 168 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 281030Z - 281800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 168 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma Western North into North-Central Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 530 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Mainly elevated supercells should pose a threat for large to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter) as they spread east-northeastward. Later this morning some clustering may occur, with occasional damaging winds possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of Wichita Falls TX to 30 miles north northeast of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0591 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168... FOR NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0591 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...northern Texas into southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168... Valid 281246Z - 281445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and eventually damaging winds appear likely along the warm frontal corridor crossing the Red River Valley this morning. DISCUSSION...A multicell storm complex is currently over Baylor/Archer Counties, TX, with impressive morning satellite presentation with overshooting tops and enhanced-v signature. These storms are riding along the warm front, which extends east/northeast into southeast OK. South of this boundary, a very moist and unstable air mass exists, with MLCAPE already over 3500 J/kg at 12Z. Given effective deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt and 100 kt high-level flow, this complex is forecast to persist through the morning, and perhaps strengthen as SBCIN is reduced further. In that case, more of a rightward propagation is possible. Elsewhere, strong elevated instability exists well north of the warm front. The 12Z OUN sounding shows MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg, along with ample deep-layer shear. Should any cells form within the broad warm advection zone, large hail would be likely. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33629614 33569656 33669724 33709799 33599869 33529929 33579949 33689953 33939951 34449892 34779788 34899716 34909621 34599581 34309578 33839581 33629614 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0168 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW ABI TO 25 NE CDS. ..GLEASON..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 168 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-031-033-049-065-067-069-085-095-099-123-137- 141-281340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-155-197-207-237-275-337-447-485-487-503- 281340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL JACK KNOX MONTAGUE THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... With large-scale upper troughing anchored over the Plains and central Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS Valleys by this evening. Rich low-level moisture continues to spread northward from TX into southern OK this morning in tandem with a low-level jet, and this trend should continue downstream into the lower MS Valley through the day as a warm front lifts northward to a weak surface low across the Ozarks. Another surface low will remain over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southwestward to the Big Bend region. A strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. Elevated supercells are ongoing across western north TX. This activity is being aided by lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough, and low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for these supercells to continue posing a threat for mainly large to very large hail through the rest of the morning as they spread east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK. But, eventual clustering and a greater damaging wind threat may materialize into the afternoon as this convection crosses the front and accesses greater instability across AR and the Ozarks. Additional surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple point in north-central TX towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong. Numerous to widespread convection across the Mid-South to southern Appalachians has generally diminished in intensity this morning. In its wake, airmass recovery is anticipated today across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. A convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary from the morning thunderstorms should attempt to lift northward some through the day, with the greater instability forecast across the lower MS Valley where steep mid-level lapse rates are in place. Convective evolution across these areas through the evening remains unclear, but multiple rounds of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail, scattered to numerous damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes appear likely. Less instability is forecast to the north of the ongoing convection across the TN Valley, but some airmass recovery and severe threat still appears possible by late afternoon/early evening. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... With large-scale upper troughing anchored over the Plains and central Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will eject eastward across the southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS Valleys by this evening. Rich low-level moisture continues to spread northward from TX into southern OK this morning in tandem with a low-level jet, and this trend should continue downstream into the lower MS Valley through the day as a warm front lifts northward to a weak surface low across the Ozarks. Another surface low will remain over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southwestward to the Big Bend region. A strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. Elevated supercells are ongoing across western north TX. This activity is being aided by lift and strong deep-layer shear associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough, and low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for these supercells to continue posing a threat for mainly large to very large hail through the rest of the morning as they spread east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK. But, eventual clustering and a greater damaging wind threat may materialize into the afternoon as this convection crosses the front and accesses greater instability across AR and the Ozarks. Additional surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple point in north-central TX towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong. Numerous to widespread convection across the Mid-South to southern Appalachians has generally diminished in intensity this morning. In its wake, airmass recovery is anticipated today across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. A convectively reinforced front/outflow boundary from the morning thunderstorms should attempt to lift northward some through the day, with the greater instability forecast across the lower MS Valley where steep mid-level lapse rates are in place. Convective evolution across these areas through the evening remains unclear, but multiple rounds of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing large hail, scattered to numerous damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes appear likely. Less instability is forecast to the north of the ongoing convection across the TN Valley, but some airmass recovery and severe threat still appears possible by late afternoon/early evening. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/28/2026 Read more

MD 0590 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0590 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...northwest Texas into southwest/southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 280949Z - 281245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the morning hours, with isolated damaging hail possible. A watch may be required. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front moving northward into northwest TX and across the Red River, with 68-70 F dewpoints to the south. Both IR imagery and GPS water vapor sensors indicate a rapid northward surge of moisture, with PWAT values increasing from 0.55 to over 1.20" in about 2 hours. Already, thunderstorms have developed 1-2 hours ahead of schedule southeast of LBB, and a gradual increase has been seen in storm intensity. Southerly winds just off the surface will raise elevated instability values north of the warm front over the next several hours. Some forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg, though effective value will depend on moisture depth/quality in the elevated slab/layer. Clearly, the environment will favor hail regardless, with deep-layer effective shear over 60 kt, along with steep lapse rates aloft and ample/increasing moisture. Uncertainty exists as to how far north severe hail cells will develop, but consensus is at least into southern OK. Significant hail over 2.00" diameter is quite possible, perhaps larger should sustained elevated supercells develop as depicted by some models. As such, a watch will need to be considered this morning. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33110118 33500114 34600015 35099890 35319756 35049663 34489661 34189678 33759729 33199918 33000083 33110118 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies. There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that the evolving split flow may maintain a broadly confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies through this period. While a broad area of lower mid-level heights remains centered across the Ontario/Quebec and Upper Midwest through Northeast, it appears that a more prominent blocking ridge/high may evolve upstream near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late this coming weekend into early next week. A developing low to its southeast may slowly progress inland across California into the Southwest, with downstream mid-level ridging building across the Rockies. There is considerable model spread concerning embedded short wave developments, but it appears that potential for stronger convection will remain generally low for the time of year and confined to parts of the southern tier of the U.S., perhaps including parts of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as along a lingering frontal zone near or just south of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coastal plain. Due to a combination of low predictability and low severe weather potential, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent through this period. Read more

WW 0167 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 167 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE BVX TO 25 N MEM TO 25 W MKL TO 50 E MKL TO 60 SSW CKV TO 25 SW BNA TO 25 SE BWG. ..JEWELL..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 167 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC035-037-077-107-123-280940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE PHILLIPS ST. FRANCIS MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119- 135-137-139-141-143-145-161-280940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE MARSHALL MONROE PANOLA PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION YALOBUSHA Read more

WW 0167 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 167 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE BVX TO 25 N MEM TO 25 W MKL TO 50 E MKL TO 60 SSW CKV TO 25 SW BNA TO 25 SE BWG. ..JEWELL..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 167 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC035-037-077-107-123-280940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE PHILLIPS ST. FRANCIS MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119- 135-137-139-141-143-145-161-280940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE MARSHALL MONROE PANOLA PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION YALOBUSHA Read more

WW 167 TORNADO AL AR IL IN KY MO MS TN 280245Z - 281000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 945 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Northwestern Alabama Far Northeastern Arkansas Southern Illinois Far Southwestern Indiana Western Kentucky Far Southeastern Missouri Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 945 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms is expected to continue eastward/southeastward into the Lower OH and Mid MS Valleys, and Mid-South over the next few hours. Strong wind gusts and line-embedded tornadoes are possible within this line. Additional more discrete storms are possible across northern MS and into far northwest AL. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible with any discrete storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 20 miles south of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 162...WW 164...WW 165...WW 166... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0589 CONCERNING TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 165...167... FOR FROM SOUTHERN OHIO ACROSS KENTUCKY AND INTO MIDDLE TO WESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0589 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...from southern Ohio across Kentucky and into Middle to western Tennessee Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 165...167... Valid 280600Z - 280800Z The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 165, 167 continues. SUMMARY...A risk of tornadoes persist from northeast Arkansas into Middle Tennessee and western Kentucky, with transition to damaging wind into eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio. DISCUSSION...A linear structure with damaging gusts and QLCS tornado risk currently extends from the OH/KY border southwestward across much of northern Kentucky. Instability drops off rapidly with eastward extent, and the need for additional watches there is uncertain. Farther southwest, supercells are ongoing over much of Middle TN, near the eastern edge of the stronger instability. Shear remains quite favorable for supercells and tornadoes with effective values over 400-500 m2/s2. The tornado risk may extend a bit outside/east of TOR #0167, and a local expansion may be needed. Otherwise, the strongest combination of instability currently extends from far western KY/TN into AR. Although these cells have generally merged into a line, periodic supercell tornado risk will remain possible, especially with any rightward moving embedded cells. ..Jewell.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 35348676 35288841 35159139 35549157 35938991 35988918 36428824 37208796 37488695 38248462 38448434 38878410 39038345 38738270 37928287 37538325 36048567 35348676 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for severe storms Thursday through Thursday night appear less than 5 percent. ...Discussion... Models suggest that an elongated area of lower mid-level heights will continue a slow east-southeastward progression across much of the upper Mississippi Valley through northern Atlantic Seaboard, with an embedded cyclonic circulation redeveloping southeastward through the Great Lakes region. In its wake split westerlies will remain broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, as a short wave perturbation emerges from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Further suppression of subtropical ridging centered across southern Mexico appears probable Thursday through Thursday night, but short wave ridging may persist to the east of the southern Rockies, downstream of the subtropical perturbation. Model spread remains sizable concerning the evolution and motion of the subtropical perturbation, as well as developments within a branch of westerlies to the north, emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. However, to the east of the Rockies, cool surface ridging is likely to be maintained across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley into Southeast. While the frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass advances away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, it is generally forecast to stall across northern Florida through the northern Gulf or Gulf coast vicinity. More uncertainty exists, due to model spread, whether it will make further progress southward through the Texas Big Bend vicinity and coastal plain, or redevelop northward a bit, north of the coastal plain and Pecos Valley. Forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, downstream of the approaching subtropical perturbation, may contribute to a corridor of increasing thunderstorm development above the stable surface-based air across parts of the Permian Basin and Texas South Plains through much of central Texas by late Thursday night. However, it remains unclear if elevated destabilization will become supportive of a risk for severe hail, before convection becomes increasingly widespread. Otherwise, the front might provide a general focus for widely scattered thunderstorm activity near the Gulf coast vicinity, while destabilization beneath cool mid-level air across the Great Basin into southern Rockies supports scattered, mostly diurnal thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 04/28/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for severe storms Thursday through Thursday night appear less than 5 percent. ...Discussion... Models suggest that an elongated area of lower mid-level heights will continue a slow east-southeastward progression across much of the upper Mississippi Valley through northern Atlantic Seaboard, with an embedded cyclonic circulation redeveloping southeastward through the Great Lakes region. In its wake split westerlies will remain broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, as a short wave perturbation emerges from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Further suppression of subtropical ridging centered across southern Mexico appears probable Thursday through Thursday night, but short wave ridging may persist to the east of the southern Rockies, downstream of the subtropical perturbation. Model spread remains sizable concerning the evolution and motion of the subtropical perturbation, as well as developments within a branch of westerlies to the north, emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. However, to the east of the Rockies, cool surface ridging is likely to be maintained across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley into Southeast. While the frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass advances away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, it is generally forecast to stall across northern Florida through the northern Gulf or Gulf coast vicinity. More uncertainty exists, due to model spread, whether it will make further progress southward through the Texas Big Bend vicinity and coastal plain, or redevelop northward a bit, north of the coastal plain and Pecos Valley. Forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, downstream of the approaching subtropical perturbation, may contribute to a corridor of increasing thunderstorm development above the stable surface-based air across parts of the Permian Basin and Texas South Plains through much of central Texas by late Thursday night. However, it remains unclear if elevated destabilization will become supportive of a risk for severe hail, before convection becomes increasingly widespread. Otherwise, the front might provide a general focus for widely scattered thunderstorm activity near the Gulf coast vicinity, while destabilization beneath cool mid-level air across the Great Basin into southern Rockies supports scattered, mostly diurnal thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 04/28/2026 Read more

WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 166 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW RUE TO 25 E JBR. ..JEWELL..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 166 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC023-029-045-051-059-063-067-083-085-095-097-105-113-115-117- 119-125-127-141-145-147-149-280740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER GARLAND HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE JACKSON LOGAN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 166 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW RUE TO 25 E JBR. ..JEWELL..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 166 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC023-029-045-051-059-063-067-083-085-095-097-105-113-115-117- 119-125-127-141-145-147-149-280740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER GARLAND HOT SPRING INDEPENDENCE JACKSON LOGAN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0167 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 167 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E JBR TO 25 W DYR TO 25 NNE MKL TO 50 NNE MKL TO 40 NNW HOP TO 30 SSE OWB. ..JEWELL..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 167 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC035-037-077-093-107-111-123-280740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS KYC033-047-107-177-219-221-280740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CHRISTIAN HOPKINS MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119- 135-137-139-141-143-145-161-280740- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HOP TO 25 NNW BWG TO 40 NNE BWG TO 25 S SDF TO 25 SE SDF TO 20 SSE LEX TO 25 E LEX TO 45 ENE LEX TO 40 ESE LUK. ..JEWELL..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...LMK...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-021-031-045-049-053-057-061-079-085-087-093-099- 123-137-141-151-155-167-169-171-179-207-213-217-227-229- 280740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BOYLE BUTLER CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GARRARD GRAYSON GREEN HARDIN HART LARUE LINCOLN LOGAN MADISON MARION MERCER METCALFE MONROE NELSON RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR WARREN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more