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Storm Prediction Center

SPC Jun 21, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains... As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized. Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks. Read more

SPC Jun 21, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains... As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be maximized. Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days of substantial severe weather are possible during this period. However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather probabilities may be added in later outlooks. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N P28 TO 40 W HUT TO 20 NW HUT TO 30 ENE HUT TO 40 ESE SLN TO 15 SE MHK. ..BROYLES..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC017-079-115-127-155-197-210840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE HARVEY MARION MORRIS RENO WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N P28 TO 40 W HUT TO 20 NW HUT TO 30 ENE HUT TO 40 ESE SLN TO 15 SE MHK. ..BROYLES..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC017-079-115-127-155-197-210840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE HARVEY MARION MORRIS RENO WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N P28 TO 40 W HUT TO 20 NW HUT TO 30 ENE HUT TO 40 ESE SLN TO 15 SE MHK. ..BROYLES..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC017-079-115-127-155-197-210840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE HARVEY MARION MORRIS RENO WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N P28 TO 40 W HUT TO 20 NW HUT TO 30 ENE HUT TO 40 ESE SLN TO 15 SE MHK. ..BROYLES..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC017-079-115-127-155-197-210840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE HARVEY MARION MORRIS RENO WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 361 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW AVK TO 30 NW P28 TO 15 ESE ICT. ..BROYLES..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 361 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-077-095-151-173-191-210840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER HARPER KINGMAN PRATT SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC003-053-071-210840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT KAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 361 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW AVK TO 30 NW P28 TO 15 ESE ICT. ..BROYLES..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 361 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-077-095-151-173-191-210840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER HARPER KINGMAN PRATT SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC003-053-071-210840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT KAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 361 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW AVK TO 30 NW P28 TO 15 ESE ICT. ..BROYLES..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 361 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-077-095-151-173-191-210840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER HARPER KINGMAN PRATT SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC003-053-071-210840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT KAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 361 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW AVK TO 30 NW P28 TO 15 ESE ICT. ..BROYLES..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 361 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-077-095-151-173-191-210840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER HARPER KINGMAN PRATT SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC003-053-071-210840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA GRANT KAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
WW 361 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 210300Z - 210900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 361 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest into South-Central Kansas Northwest Oklahoma Far Northeast Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1000 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A severe squall line will continue southeastward and pose a risk for severe gusts into the overnight. Gusts ranging from 60 to 80 mph are possible. Large hail may accompany the stronger cores on the western flank of the squall line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Garden City KS to 10 miles northeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 356...WW 357...WW 358...WW 359...WW 360... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Smith Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 362 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 362 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-005-011-015-019-021-031-035-037-045-049-059-073-085- 087-091-099-103-107-111-121-125-133-139-177-205-207-209- 210840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OSAGE SHAWNEE WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE MOC011-013-037-047-095-097-165-217-210840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES CASS CLAY JACKSON JASPER Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 362 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/21/26 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 362 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-005-011-015-019-021-031-035-037-045-049-059-073-085- 087-091-099-103-107-111-121-125-133-139-177-205-207-209- 210840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OSAGE SHAWNEE WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE MOC011-013-037-047-095-097-165-217-210840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES CASS CLAY JACKSON JASPER Read more

SPC Jun 21, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude ridge across the western CONUS will build slowly northward as a trough moves south from Alberta into the northern Plains. As this pattern continues to evolve, mid-level flow will strengthen across the Rockies and into the Plains. This will result in strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains. Farther east, a cold front will move off of the East Coast during the day Tuesday. ...Central High Plains into the central Plains... Strengthening upslope flow to the north of the developing lee cyclone should result in storm development by mid-afternoon across eastern Colorado on Tuesday. As mid-level flow strengthens to near 50 knots, this strong shear combined with moderate to strong instability will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and some severe winds. Expect these supercells to eventually congeal into one or more clusters as they move east during the evening, with an increasing severe wind threat. ...Upper Midwest... A weak surface low associated with the mid-level trough moving south out of Canada will settle into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A cold front will extend southwestward from this feature with dewpoints into the low 60s ahead of it. This should produce sufficient instability for scattered storm development. Some damaging wind gusts may be possible with the strongest storms. ...Southeast... A cold front will move off the East Coast during the day on Tuesday. Most guidance shows the front offshore before sufficient instability develops for a severe storm threat along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts. Therefore, have not added probabilities at this time. However, if the cold front slows or if greater instability develops than currently forecast, a Marginal Risk may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC Jun 21, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude ridge across the western CONUS will build slowly northward as a trough moves south from Alberta into the northern Plains. As this pattern continues to evolve, mid-level flow will strengthen across the Rockies and into the Plains. This will result in strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains. Farther east, a cold front will move off of the East Coast during the day Tuesday. ...Central High Plains into the central Plains... Strengthening upslope flow to the north of the developing lee cyclone should result in storm development by mid-afternoon across eastern Colorado on Tuesday. As mid-level flow strengthens to near 50 knots, this strong shear combined with moderate to strong instability will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and some severe winds. Expect these supercells to eventually congeal into one or more clusters as they move east during the evening, with an increasing severe wind threat. ...Upper Midwest... A weak surface low associated with the mid-level trough moving south out of Canada will settle into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A cold front will extend southwestward from this feature with dewpoints into the low 60s ahead of it. This should produce sufficient instability for scattered storm development. Some damaging wind gusts may be possible with the strongest storms. ...Southeast... A cold front will move off the East Coast during the day on Tuesday. Most guidance shows the front offshore before sufficient instability develops for a severe storm threat along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts. Therefore, have not added probabilities at this time. However, if the cold front slows or if greater instability develops than currently forecast, a Marginal Risk may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC Jun 21, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude ridge across the western CONUS will build slowly northward as a trough moves south from Alberta into the northern Plains. As this pattern continues to evolve, mid-level flow will strengthen across the Rockies and into the Plains. This will result in strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains. Farther east, a cold front will move off of the East Coast during the day Tuesday. ...Central High Plains into the central Plains... Strengthening upslope flow to the north of the developing lee cyclone should result in storm development by mid-afternoon across eastern Colorado on Tuesday. As mid-level flow strengthens to near 50 knots, this strong shear combined with moderate to strong instability will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and some severe winds. Expect these supercells to eventually congeal into one or more clusters as they move east during the evening, with an increasing severe wind threat. ...Upper Midwest... A weak surface low associated with the mid-level trough moving south out of Canada will settle into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A cold front will extend southwestward from this feature with dewpoints into the low 60s ahead of it. This should produce sufficient instability for scattered storm development. Some damaging wind gusts may be possible with the strongest storms. ...Southeast... A cold front will move off the East Coast during the day on Tuesday. Most guidance shows the front offshore before sufficient instability develops for a severe storm threat along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts. Therefore, have not added probabilities at this time. However, if the cold front slows or if greater instability develops than currently forecast, a Marginal Risk may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC Jun 21, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude ridge across the western CONUS will build slowly northward as a trough moves south from Alberta into the northern Plains. As this pattern continues to evolve, mid-level flow will strengthen across the Rockies and into the Plains. This will result in strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains. Farther east, a cold front will move off of the East Coast during the day Tuesday. ...Central High Plains into the central Plains... Strengthening upslope flow to the north of the developing lee cyclone should result in storm development by mid-afternoon across eastern Colorado on Tuesday. As mid-level flow strengthens to near 50 knots, this strong shear combined with moderate to strong instability will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and some severe winds. Expect these supercells to eventually congeal into one or more clusters as they move east during the evening, with an increasing severe wind threat. ...Upper Midwest... A weak surface low associated with the mid-level trough moving south out of Canada will settle into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A cold front will extend southwestward from this feature with dewpoints into the low 60s ahead of it. This should produce sufficient instability for scattered storm development. Some damaging wind gusts may be possible with the strongest storms. ...Southeast... A cold front will move off the East Coast during the day on Tuesday. Most guidance shows the front offshore before sufficient instability develops for a severe storm threat along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts. Therefore, have not added probabilities at this time. However, if the cold front slows or if greater instability develops than currently forecast, a Marginal Risk may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC Jun 21, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude ridge across the western CONUS will build slowly northward as a trough moves south from Alberta into the northern Plains. As this pattern continues to evolve, mid-level flow will strengthen across the Rockies and into the Plains. This will result in strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains. Farther east, a cold front will move off of the East Coast during the day Tuesday. ...Central High Plains into the central Plains... Strengthening upslope flow to the north of the developing lee cyclone should result in storm development by mid-afternoon across eastern Colorado on Tuesday. As mid-level flow strengthens to near 50 knots, this strong shear combined with moderate to strong instability will support supercells capable of large to very large hail and some severe winds. Expect these supercells to eventually congeal into one or more clusters as they move east during the evening, with an increasing severe wind threat. ...Upper Midwest... A weak surface low associated with the mid-level trough moving south out of Canada will settle into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. A cold front will extend southwestward from this feature with dewpoints into the low 60s ahead of it. This should produce sufficient instability for scattered storm development. Some damaging wind gusts may be possible with the strongest storms. ...Southeast... A cold front will move off the East Coast during the day on Tuesday. Most guidance shows the front offshore before sufficient instability develops for a severe storm threat along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts. Therefore, have not added probabilities at this time. However, if the cold front slows or if greater instability develops than currently forecast, a Marginal Risk may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 06/21/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, zonal mid-level flow with embedded impulses will characterize the upper-air pattern across the CONUS tomorrow (Monday). Surface troughing will develop across the Interior West by the afternoon hours, resulting in a broad area of dry and breezy conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners region. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Similarly, Elevated highlights were also introduced for another afternoon of channeled flow across the Snake River Plain, where 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
1 month 1 week ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1, zonal mid-level flow with embedded impulses will characterize the upper-air pattern across the CONUS tomorrow (Monday). Surface troughing will develop across the Interior West by the afternoon hours, resulting in a broad area of dry and breezy conditions across the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners region. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Similarly, Elevated highlights were also introduced for another afternoon of channeled flow across the Snake River Plain, where 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours. ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
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