Storm Prediction Center

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 30 06:00:03 UTC 2026.

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across middle Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon through Friday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output offers little change concerning the forecast evolution of the large-scale pattern through this period. Substantive amplification within the split westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific still appears probable Friday through Friday night, including building ridging at mid-levels along an axis west of 140W longitude into northwestern British Columbia, and on a larger-scale eastward across the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies. Within the larger-scale ridging, a modest mid-level trough and developing embedded low are forecast to slowly dig to the west of the U.S. Pacific coast. At the same time, broad upper ridging may gradually build across the subtropical eastern Pacific toward Baja California. Downstream, a confluent regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, and likely become enhanced at mid-levels across the southern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley, as short wave troughing digs to the southwest of an elongated area of lower heights slowly shifting eastward through the Ontario/Quebec/Great Lakes and Northeast vicinity. A short wave perturbation reaching the Texas Big Bend vicinity by 12Z Friday probably will undergo shearing as it progresses through the confluence to the south of the digging trough. However, as a reinforcing cool surge noses southward to the lee of the southern Rockies, across and south/southeast of the Texas Big Bend, guidance suggests that forcing for ascent may remain sufficient to support a developing wave along a stalled frontal zone, across middle Texas coastal areas through the eastern Gulf coast vicinity Friday afternoon through Friday night. ...Middle Texas coastal plain through western Florida Panhandle... Large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by warm advection along and to the cool side of the surface front, may support a swath of mostly weak thunderstorm activity across much of the Gulf into southern Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night. Forecast soundings continue to indicate thermodynamic profiles with little potential to support severe hail and wind, except perhaps in immediate proximity to the surface front. Warm elevated mixed-layer air, particularly across parts of Deep South Texas, may tend to inhibit thunderstorm initiation to the south of the front. Based on latest model output, severe weather potential for this period appears a bit more conditional, dependent upon both the evolution of the surface wave and the degree of destabilization along the frontal zone, which remain uncertain. However, it still appears possible that strengthening deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent near the frontal wave could support isolated supercell development across the middle Texas coastal plain by Friday afternoon, across southeastern Louisiana parishes by late Friday evening, and into the western Florida Panhandle toward 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 04/30/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of southwest and south-central Texas. ...Southwest and South-central Texas... At mid-levels, a low will move across northern Mexico this afternoon into tonight, as a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet ejects eastward across the southern Plains. In response, large-scale ascent will increase over parts of southwest Texas this evening, supporting scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight as a cluster of convection moves eastward into south-central Texas. These storms will be located to the north of a quasi-stationary front, and will be elevated in nature. Late evening forecast soundings in southwest Texas have steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (exceeding 7.5 C/km), with effective shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This environment will likely support an isolated large hail threat, mainly if a supercell can develop. ..Broyles/Moore.. 04/30/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A ridge of high pressure will shift east over the Great Basin as a closed low develops offshore the Pacific Northwest. An amplifying upper trough across the Eastern Seaboard will dig southward and amalgamate with a subtropical shortwave traversing the Gulf Coast region, further enhancing westerly flow aloft for much of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread precipitation over the southern Plains on Friday is expected to provide much needed relief to an extensively dry fuelscape. Prolonged dry and breezy conditions across the Florida Peninsula will continue fire weather concerns where drought-stressed fuels exist. ...Central Florida... Ahead of a stalled frontal boundary draped over northern FL, steady westerly flow and a relatively dry airmass amid receptive fuels will pose a fire weather threat on Friday afternoon for the FL Peninsula. In response to increasing subtropical moisture aloft, high cloud cover will build across the Peninsula throughout the afternoon. However, some breaks in the clouds should allow for deeper mixing into a dry boundary layer. Elevated highlights have been introduced where RH values are expected to drop between 25-35 percent at peak heating while westerly winds increase to 10 mph atop dry fuels. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level Pacific low will move onshore the Baja Peninsula and transition into an eastward projecting shortwave. Downstream, a robust westerly 50-70 kt jet will emerge across central TX extending into the Southeast this afternoon. Ample Pacific moisture transport will encourage widespread wetting rains and a reduced fire weather threat across much of the central and southern High Plains. Broad upper troughing will become established over the Northeast, anchored by a persistent closed upper-level low over southern Ontario. In the Southeast, a weak, southward propagating weak cold front is expected to stall over southern GA and northern FL, increasing precipitation chances to where extensive drought and receptive fuels remain. Conversely, high pressure ahead of this front will promote a warm, dry airmass over Central FL where fire weather concerns reemerge amid a very dry fuelscape. ...Central Florida... Surface high pressure will maintain warm and dry conditions for much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon ahead of a slow-moving, quasi-stationary cold front draped across the Gulf Coast and northern FL. A few thunderstorms are possible along this boundary, mainly along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Lightning ignitions are possible in areas that do not see sufficient rainfall, and resultant gusty/erratic outflow winds from thunderstorms could further exacerbate any new/ongoing fires. South of the front, an Elevated fire weather threat exists where westerly winds of up to 10 mph will partially overlap a region of 25-35 percent RH amid drought stressed fuels. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 29 12:32:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 29 12:32:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms should impact a corridor from parts of Texas to the Gulf Coast states today. Scattered damaging winds and large hail are the main threats, with isolated very large hail possible across portions of Texas. ...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A broad zone of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will persist today over much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Multiple weak embedded perturbations aloft moving from northern Mexico across the southern Plains should encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the day along/near a surface front draped from west-central TX to southern AR. A rather moist low-level airmass remains in place along/south of this boundary, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop this moisture are supporting up to 2000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE across TX, with somewhat lesser values into the lower MS Valley. Current expectations are for a gradual increase in convective coverage and intensity this morning through the afternoon as the weak mid-level shortwave impulses develop eastward across the warm sector, with multiple zones of initiation possible along/near the front. Regardless of where thunderstorms form, the moderate to very strong instability and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at mid/upper levels should support a threat for large hail with any persistent supercells. This hail threat should be greater across TX (with isolated 2+ inch diameter hailstones possible here), but isolated severe hail may occur as far east as the central/southern AL vicinity. A tendency for thunderstorms to cluster and pose a greater damaging wind threat may focus across parts of the lower MS Valley, generally along/southwest of ongoing convection occurring this morning in east-central MS to northern/central AL. Given increased confidence in convection initiating and being sustained, a Slight Risk for the hail/wind threat has been introduced from parts of TX to southern AL with this update. ...Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina... Within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Midwest, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening in tandem with an eastward-moving surface cold front. Only modest boundary layer moisture is present across the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s. Filtered diurnal heating will result in generally 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE (locally greater possible in NC). Despite this weak instability, strong deep-layer shear should aid in transient organization of the more robust cores that can form. An isolated threat for hail and damaging winds remains apparent. 0-1 km SRH around 100-150 m2/s2 in proximity to a weak surface low could also support a brief tornado. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/29/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range guidance, in particular the ECENS and GEFS, generally maintains forecast trends of prior runs concerning the evolution of the large-scale features within the prevailing split flow through this weekend into early next week. It appears that at least a transient blocking high may evolve within amplified ridging offshore of the British Columbia and adjacent Pacific Northwest coast. To its south-southeast a notable mid-level low is forecast to evolve within initial troughing slowly digging toward the U.S. Pacific coast, with the low bottoming out offshore of the central/ southern California coast by early next week. Downstream, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will be maintained, with lowest heights perhaps reforming west-northwestward from southwestern Quebec toward southern Hudson Bay/northwestern Ontario, contributing to the maintenance of a confluent regime across and east of the Rockies. Shorter wavelength developments within this pattern remain more uncertain, particularly by the early to middle portion of next week, when it appears that the offshore low will begin to progress inland across California and the southern Sierra Nevada. Depending on the timing of the inland progressing mid-level cold core with respect to diurnal heating, this could be accompanied by relatively minor severe weather potential across parts of the San Joaquin Valley next Monday or Tuesday. Downstream, southerly moist return flow into at least the southern through central Great Plains, associated with deepening lee surface troughing, may contribute to destabilization beneath building mid-level ridging across and east of the southern Rockies. This might be accompanied by increasing potential for at least widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development on Tuesday. Guidance suggests potential for more widespread organized severe thunderstorm development could increase by Wednesday, but much will depend on short wave developments which become rather uncertain by this time. Read more

MD 0594 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...central parts of Mississippi and Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281550Z - 281745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds and large hail is expected to increase across the area this afternoon. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have persisted through much of the morning across the discussion area with that activity being driven by modest low-level warm advection occurring along and to the north of an outflow boundary extending from around Greenwood, MS to north of Selma and Montgomery in Alabama. The 12z JAN sounding revealed the eastern edge of the elevated-mixed layer has spread east into the lower MS Valley, which when coupled with a moist boundary layer is resulting in estimated MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg as of 15z. The 12z CAMs offer various scenarios with respect specific details on thunderstorm evolution today. Some solutions suggest in situ storm intensification/coalescence into smaller, forward propagating complexes, while others indicate the primary severe weather threat being associated with a complex of storms arriving from the ArkLaTex later today. Regardless, the general notion is for a gradual increase in surface-based storm coverage and intensity in the vicinity of the outflow boundary this afternoon. Relatively strong, mid/upper-level flow evident in the 12z JAN/BMX soundings will support the potential for supercells and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat is somewhat conditional and likely tied to any storms that can favorably interact with the outflow boundary. ..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32979029 33789030 33978939 33648785 33218626 32428618 32398761 32748957 32979029 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0595 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTH OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0595 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...North Texas and far south Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281707Z - 281900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected to become increasingly likely this afternoon with the potential for very large hail and a few tornadoes. A Tornado Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Latest mesoanalysis places a surface low over northwest TX with an attendant outflow boundary (remnant from early-day storms) stretching east across north TX, to the north of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. A dryline was becoming better defined from the vicinity of the surface low south-southwest through the TX Big Country into eastern Permian Basin into Concho Valley. Latest trends in visible satellite imagery indicate a developing cumulus field in the vicinity of the surface triple point where objective analysis suggests that MLCAPE has increased to as high as 3500-4000 J/kg with decreasing cap strength. Short-term model guidance is in reasonably good agreement in depicting the development of one or multiple supercells from the vicinity of the triple point east along the outflow boundary by as early as 19z. Given the magnitude of buoyancy and the presence of a strong mid/upper-level wind field across the southern Plains today, the setup appears favorable for long-lived storms capable of very large hail (upwards of 3-4" in diameter) as the primary hazard. Modest low-level shear currently being sampled by the KFWS VWP and evident in plan-view objective fields may tend to limit the overall tornado potential. However, given that expected storm motions for a right-moving supercell is generally along the orientation of the outflow boundary, the potential for a few tornadoes appears to be greatest with any storms that can favorably interact with that boundary. ..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33019942 33339956 33939917 34119860 34109699 33929609 33099603 32909617 32829677 32899854 33019942 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... Have upgraded portions of North Texas to a Moderate Risk for what is anticipated to be a semi-focused sub-regional corridor of supercells including very large hail potential along with some damaging wind/tornado risk centered on mid-afternoon through early/mid-evening. First, a loosely organized complex of storms continues to progress east-northeastward along the Red River of southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas and broader parts of eastern Oklahoma at late morning. Additional increasingly surface-based development seems probable on this near-frontal zone and associated moist axis and thermal gradient that extends east-northeastward to the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss. This may include supercells as well as the possibility of an upscale-growing complex. Other initially elevated severe storms are expected to continue and increase today from northeast Oklahoma across the Ozarks toward parts of the Mid-South/Mississippi Valley. Large hail is the initial risk, but a surface-based storm risk could develop pending boundary layer warming. Broadly speaking outside on ongoing storms, a strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. This is beneath relatively strong winds aloft, particularly in mid/high-levels based on morning upper-air data. Additional intense surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple point in north-central Texas towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong. Additional severe storms are expected as far east as Mississippi and Alabama today -- see Mesoscale Discussion 594 for short-term details. An additional secondary round of upscale-growing storms with increasing damaging wind potential could also move into this same region late today, or more so tonight. ..Guyer/Chalmers.. 04/28/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...Southwest and Southern Plains... Robust westerly flow aloft will persist today over the Southwest and Southern Plains as a low amplitude upper trough ejects into the Central Plains. Minimal changes to the Critical highlighted area in portions of eastern NM and western TX were needed, where west winds of 20-25 mph and single digit RH overlapping dry fuels will align through the peak afternoon heating. Latest model guidance and surface observation trends suggest limited movement of a nearly stationary frontal boundary and associated modified air mass stretched across southeastern CO into the TX panhandle as the afternoon progresses. This should reduce the northeastward extent of fire-effective weather conditions today, where Elevated Highlights have been trimmed. ...Upstate New York and much of Vermont... South winds continue to increase across the northeastern U.S. south of deep surface low in eastern Ontario. RH trends are also lower, currently in the 20-30% range, with further reductions close to 20% expected by late afternoon, despite increasing cloud cover. Fuels remain quite receptive with ERC values in the 90th to 97th percentiles across portions of the Northeast. Extended Elevated Highlights into central NY to include the Adirondacks and Green Mountains in VT to account for the more expansive dry air mass in place across the region. ..Williams.. 04/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... As a low pressure system off the West Coast slowly approaches Baja CA, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will traverse the High Plains encouraging strong westerly mid-level flow. Fire weather conditions will continue for portions of western NM into the southern Plains as a result of downslope warming and boundary layer mixing. A deepening surface low will pass over the Great Lakes region into southern Ontario, assisting in the breakdown of upper ridging along the Eastern Seaboard. Increasing low-level southerly flow ahead of an incoming trough and associated cold front will allow for fire weather concerns to emerge in Upstate NY and western VT amid a very dry airmass. ...Southern Plains... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue this afternoon where a dry airmass and strong winds overlap a region of receptive fuels. Widespread west to southwest winds of 15-20 mph coupled with RH falling to 10-20 percent atop a dry fuelscape will increase fire spread potential for any new and/or ongoing wildfires. More intense wind belts of 20-25 mph aligning with RH reductions close to 10 percent yield Critical fire weather conditions across east-central and southeastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. ...Upstate New York and Western Vermont... As surface pressure gradients tighten surrounding a surface low positioned over central/eastern Ontario, southerly winds are expected to reach 10-15 mph with localized/terrain enhanced 20 mph corridors likely. Mid-upper level cloud cover will increase this morning through the afternoon hours, potentially limiting deeper mixing. However, RH of 25-35 percent (locally near 20 percent) are still expected by early afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will align amid dry fuels to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across upstate NY and western VT. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0170 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 170 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..CHALMERS..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 170 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-029-033-039-041-043-045-047- 051-053-057-059-061-069-071-073-079-081-083-085-091-095-097-099- 103-105-109-113-115-117-119-125-127-131-133-139-145-147-149- 281740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER UNION WHITE WOODRUFF YELL Read more

WW 170 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 281545Z - 290000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 170 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Arkansas Northern Louisiana Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1045 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...The air mass across the region should quickly destabilize as cloud-clearing occurs in the presence of a moist environment. Large hail will be the most common concern initially, but damaging wind and tornado potential are expected to steadily increase through the afternoon regionally. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north of Paris TX to 45 miles east of Pine Bluff AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 168...WW 169... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0169 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 169 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..CHALMERS..04/28/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 169 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-007-009-015-023-049-063-065-067-075-087-089-101-121-129- 135-137-141-143-281740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BENTON BOONE CARROLL CLEBURNE FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE MADISON MARION NEWTON RANDOLPH SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON MOC009-043-057-059-065-067-077-091-097-105-109-119-145-149-153- 161-167-169-203-209-213-215-225-229-281740- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS GREENE HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON OREGON OZARK Read more

WW 169 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 281515Z - 282300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 169 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southern Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1015 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially elevated storms will continue to expand/increase east-northeastward into this afternoon. Large hail will be the main risk initially today, but surfaced-based storms, including damaging wind potential, may increase later this afternoon, especially across the Ozarks. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Muskogee OK to 25 miles east northeast of West Plains MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 168... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0592 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0592 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas into central and southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168... Valid 281433Z - 281630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage across the discussion area this morning with all severe-weather hazards becoming possible. Convective trends are being monitored for an additional downstream watch. DISCUSSION...As of 14:20z, mosaic radar data showed thunderstorms gradually increasing in coverage across south-central OK and north-central TX with the strongest storm being a supercell over Montague County, TX. That storm is located very near or just to the south of a warm front that extends from low pressure over western north Texas east-northeast into central AR. The south of that boundary, visible satellite shows deepening moist convection near and to the southeast of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. The 12z FWD sounding sampled a very moist boundary layer surmounted by steep mid-level lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 3500 J/kg. The cap was not overly strong, and latest model guidance suggests a gradual increase in thunderstorm activity this morning from the vicinity of the ongoing storms over south-central OK and north-central TX eastward toward the ArkLaTex. Regional 12z soundings sampled the presence of strong, mid/upper-level winds, which will combine with the moderate to strong instability to support higher-order storm modes, including supercells and bowing structures capable of large to very large hail and damaging winds as the primary hazards. The greatest potential for a few tornadoes will exist with storms that can favorably interact with the warm front in the area. ..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33969822 35109776 34979227 34469194 33739182 32829211 32849425 33029630 33259750 33489807 33969822 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0593 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0593 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281501Z - 281700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage across the discussion area this morning. Large hail will be the primary hazard initially, with damaging wind potential increasing this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely be required to address this severe weather threat. DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends indicate thunderstorms gradually increasing in coverage across portions of eastern OK, driven largely by a low-level warm advection regime occurring to the north of a surface boundary stalled across southeast OK into central AR. RAP proximity soundings suggest the developing storms are rooted in a moist layer centered around 850 mb, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough moving into western KS this morning with an area of downstream, implied forcing for ascent progressively overspreading the discussion area over the next several hours. That combined with the available reservoir of moderate, elevated instability, and relatively strong cloud-bearing shear will support the potential for elevated supercells capable of large hail initially. Some cloud breaks (evident in visible satellite) may allow for a subset of the elevated storms to become surface-based by afternoon, at which point, a damaging wind threat would increase. ..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35769576 36959488 37869282 37869097 36649096 36149149 35549395 35169505 35769576 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0169 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0169 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more