SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High
Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this
afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging
winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some
potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Missouri,
Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.
...MO/IL/IN/KY...
A long-lived band of thunderstorms currently extends from
east-central MO into southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity is
tracking into a region of increasingly warm/moist air where
dewpoints are rising to near 70F and breaks in the clouds are
contributing to moderate CAPE values. All CAM guidance suggests
that storms along the line will intensify this afternoon and track
eastward across southern IL/southern IN and northern KY. Low-level
shear is quite strong, but somewhat veered. This increases
uncertainty of storm mode between discrete supercells or bowing
structures. It appears there will be a period of risk early in the
event for tornadic supercells, followed by multiple linear storm
segments capable of damaging wind gusts. Storms may remain severe
as far east as southern OH and eastern KY overnight. Refer to MD
#1228 for further short-term details.
...MO/KS/OK/AR...
In the wake of the aforementioned convection, an outflow boundary
extends southwestward into central OK. Rapid clearing is occurring
north of the boundary, where residual moisture and steep lapse rates
will quickly destabilize the area. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form by late afternoon in this zone and track slowly
southeastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear and high CAPE will
promote the risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and
damaging winds. A tornado or two might also occur.
...NE/CO/KS...
Low clouds are eroding across the NE Panhandle southward into
eastern CO/western KS, where rapid afternoon destabilization should
occur. A weak shortwave trough over eastern WY will rotate into the
region this afternoon, helping to initiate scattered thunderstorms.
Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible, tracking
southeastward across the risk area through mid-evening.
..Hart/Moore.. 06/21/2026
Read more
MD 1228 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...ADJACENT NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Areas affected...southern Illinois...much of southeastern
Missouri...adjacent northern Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 211506Z - 211700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development may slowly intensify through
early afternoon, accompanied by increasing strong to severe wind
gusts and a risk for tornadoes. A severe weather watch will
probably be needed at some point, though how soon remains uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Convective development persists with a pair of remnant
mesoscale convective vortices migrating eastward, within the leading
edge of weak larger-scale mid-level troughing spreading across the
lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley region. One vortex remains
a bit better defined and is in the process of migrating across
northeastern Missouri into west central Illinois. The other appears
to be slowly migrating eastward to the north of Springfield, MO. A
belt of 30+ kt deep-layer southwesterly mean flow is accompanying
these perturbation, and appears to include wind speeds on the order
of 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer.
Associated shear likely has been contributing to the occasional
evolution of meso-gamma scale circulations along the gust front of
otherwise still modest thunderstorm development now advancing
into/across the I-44 corridor of southwestern Missouri. However,
low-level moistening and boundary-layer warming along and north of a
weakening frontal zone extending eastward ahead of activity are
contributing to substantive boundary layer destabilization across
southeastern Missouri, as far north as the Greater St. Louis area,
into the lower Ohio Valley. As this proceeds, and develops further
northward through portions of central Illinois during the next few
hours, increasing unstable updraft inflow probably will contribute
to at least a gradual intensification of storms with increasing
severe weather potential. This may include developing cyclonic
circulations with potential to produce strong to severe surface
gusts and the risk for tornadoes.
..Kerr/Hart.. 06/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36709359 37529259 38199178 38709116 39219032 39528932
39688774 38128830 36558965 36019142 36339326 36709359
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
The existing Elevated area over the southwest was expanded slightly
to include the San Luis Valley and nearby areas of southern CO.
Conditions there will be similar to the drawn area over much of
western and northern NM with westerly winds near 10-15 mph combined
with afternoon RHs of 5-15% atop very dry dead fuels. Other areas
remain on track from the previous forecast with no additional
updates necessary.
..Stearns.. 06/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
Zonal mid-level flow will prevail over the CONUS today, with
multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow. Across the
Intermountain West, one such mid-level impulse will overspread the
central Rockies, encouraging surface low development along the
southern High Plains. Dry westerly flow will ensue across the desert
Southwest, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-15
percent RH overspreading dry fuels from far eastern Arizona into
central New Mexico, warranting the continuation of Elevated
highlights. Dry and windy conditions will also channel within the
Snake River Plain by afternoon peak heating in southern Idaho. Here,
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15
percent RH and dry fuels, with Elevated highlights maintained here
as well.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
The existing Elevated area over the southwest was expanded slightly
to include the San Luis Valley and nearby areas of southern CO.
Conditions there will be similar to the drawn area over much of
western and northern NM with westerly winds near 10-15 mph combined
with afternoon RHs of 5-15% atop very dry dead fuels. Other areas
remain on track from the previous forecast with no additional
updates necessary.
..Stearns.. 06/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
Zonal mid-level flow will prevail over the CONUS today, with
multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow. Across the
Intermountain West, one such mid-level impulse will overspread the
central Rockies, encouraging surface low development along the
southern High Plains. Dry westerly flow will ensue across the desert
Southwest, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-15
percent RH overspreading dry fuels from far eastern Arizona into
central New Mexico, warranting the continuation of Elevated
highlights. Dry and windy conditions will also channel within the
Snake River Plain by afternoon peak heating in southern Idaho. Here,
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15
percent RH and dry fuels, with Elevated highlights maintained here
as well.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
The existing Elevated area over the southwest was expanded slightly
to include the San Luis Valley and nearby areas of southern CO.
Conditions there will be similar to the drawn area over much of
western and northern NM with westerly winds near 10-15 mph combined
with afternoon RHs of 5-15% atop very dry dead fuels. Other areas
remain on track from the previous forecast with no additional
updates necessary.
..Stearns.. 06/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
Zonal mid-level flow will prevail over the CONUS today, with
multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow. Across the
Intermountain West, one such mid-level impulse will overspread the
central Rockies, encouraging surface low development along the
southern High Plains. Dry westerly flow will ensue across the desert
Southwest, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-15
percent RH overspreading dry fuels from far eastern Arizona into
central New Mexico, warranting the continuation of Elevated
highlights. Dry and windy conditions will also channel within the
Snake River Plain by afternoon peak heating in southern Idaho. Here,
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15
percent RH and dry fuels, with Elevated highlights maintained here
as well.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
The existing Elevated area over the southwest was expanded slightly
to include the San Luis Valley and nearby areas of southern CO.
Conditions there will be similar to the drawn area over much of
western and northern NM with westerly winds near 10-15 mph combined
with afternoon RHs of 5-15% atop very dry dead fuels. Other areas
remain on track from the previous forecast with no additional
updates necessary.
..Stearns.. 06/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
Zonal mid-level flow will prevail over the CONUS today, with
multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow. Across the
Intermountain West, one such mid-level impulse will overspread the
central Rockies, encouraging surface low development along the
southern High Plains. Dry westerly flow will ensue across the desert
Southwest, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-15
percent RH overspreading dry fuels from far eastern Arizona into
central New Mexico, warranting the continuation of Elevated
highlights. Dry and windy conditions will also channel within the
Snake River Plain by afternoon peak heating in southern Idaho. Here,
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15
percent RH and dry fuels, with Elevated highlights maintained here
as well.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211700Z - 221200Z
The existing Elevated area over the southwest was expanded slightly
to include the San Luis Valley and nearby areas of southern CO.
Conditions there will be similar to the drawn area over much of
western and northern NM with westerly winds near 10-15 mph combined
with afternoon RHs of 5-15% atop very dry dead fuels. Other areas
remain on track from the previous forecast with no additional
updates necessary.
..Stearns.. 06/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/
...Synopsis...
Zonal mid-level flow will prevail over the CONUS today, with
multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse this flow. Across the
Intermountain West, one such mid-level impulse will overspread the
central Rockies, encouraging surface low development along the
southern High Plains. Dry westerly flow will ensue across the desert
Southwest, with 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 5-15
percent RH overspreading dry fuels from far eastern Arizona into
central New Mexico, warranting the continuation of Elevated
highlights. Dry and windy conditions will also channel within the
Snake River Plain by afternoon peak heating in southern Idaho. Here,
15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15
percent RH and dry fuels, with Elevated highlights maintained here
as well.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High
Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this
afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging
winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some
potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Missouri,
Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.
...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
An MCS with a convectively augmented parent MCV extends from parts
of central MO into southeast KS/northern OK this morning. The
airmass downstream of this MCS across MO is not particularly
unstable, but greater low-level moisture and related instability is
present across northeast OK and vicinity. Current expectations are
for the MCS/MCV to continue eastward across the mid MS Valley and
Ozarks through the morning while posing an isolated threat for
severe/damaging winds. With time, some re-invigoration of the MCS
appears possible into the lower OH Valley as destabilization occurs
with daytime heating. Trailing outflow from the morning convection
will serve as a focus for additional thunderstorms later today as a
compact/enhanced low-level jet moves eastward from the Ozarks into
the mid MS/lower OH Valleys.
There still appears to be potential for more robust thunderstorm
development this afternoon across these areas along and south of the
outflow boundary/front. Moderate instability will likely develop in
the presence of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be
sufficient to support supercells. Enhanced low-level shear will also
be present owing to the eastward-migrating low-level jet. This will
foster a risk for tornadoes with any sustained supercells, and a
strong tornado appears possible. Considered greater tornado
probabilities and a categorical upgrade in a narrow corridor across
parts of MO/IL/IN, but there remains too much uncertainty regarding
sufficient destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. The
severe/damaging wind threat will also increase, with the potential
for multiple clusters to form and track eastward into the lower OH
Valley through the evening and early overnight hours.
Convective development should also occur farther west along/near the
composite outflow boundary/front across the Ozarks into southern
KS/northern OK by peak afternoon heating. Strong instability and
moderate deep-layer shear will likely support updraft organization
and a mix of supercells and multicell clusters. Large to very large
hail should be the primary threat initially, but deep-layer shear
vectors aligned largely parallel to the boundary should foster
convective mergers and an increasing threat for severe/damaging
winds with multiple clusters that should form and spread
east-southeastward across OK and the Ozarks through the evening. At
least an isolated severe wind threat may persist overnight with
southward extent across the southern Plains into AR given the large
degree of buoyancy forecast.
A mid-level shortwave trough over WY this morning will move
east-southeastward towards the central High Plains by this
afternoon. Enhanced westerly flow aloft attendant to this shortwave
trough will overspread the central High Plains through the day. A
convectively reinforced front extends from northwest OK into the
central High Plains, and modest low-level upslope flow is forecast
to the north of this boundary today. Recent short-term guidance
continues to suggest that moderate instability will develop with
filtered daytime heating in the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong effective bulk shear. Isolated supercells that can
develop in this regime across eastern CO into western NE/KS should
pose mainly a large to isolated very large (2+ inches) hail risk
initially, before some clustering/upscale growth possibly occurs
this evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds would become an
increasing concern if this mode transition occurs, and isolated
significant gusts (75+ mph) appear possible.
..Gleason/Broyles.. 06/21/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High
Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this
afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging
winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some
potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Missouri,
Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.
...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
An MCS with a convectively augmented parent MCV extends from parts
of central MO into southeast KS/northern OK this morning. The
airmass downstream of this MCS across MO is not particularly
unstable, but greater low-level moisture and related instability is
present across northeast OK and vicinity. Current expectations are
for the MCS/MCV to continue eastward across the mid MS Valley and
Ozarks through the morning while posing an isolated threat for
severe/damaging winds. With time, some re-invigoration of the MCS
appears possible into the lower OH Valley as destabilization occurs
with daytime heating. Trailing outflow from the morning convection
will serve as a focus for additional thunderstorms later today as a
compact/enhanced low-level jet moves eastward from the Ozarks into
the mid MS/lower OH Valleys.
There still appears to be potential for more robust thunderstorm
development this afternoon across these areas along and south of the
outflow boundary/front. Moderate instability will likely develop in
the presence of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be
sufficient to support supercells. Enhanced low-level shear will also
be present owing to the eastward-migrating low-level jet. This will
foster a risk for tornadoes with any sustained supercells, and a
strong tornado appears possible. Considered greater tornado
probabilities and a categorical upgrade in a narrow corridor across
parts of MO/IL/IN, but there remains too much uncertainty regarding
sufficient destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. The
severe/damaging wind threat will also increase, with the potential
for multiple clusters to form and track eastward into the lower OH
Valley through the evening and early overnight hours.
Convective development should also occur farther west along/near the
composite outflow boundary/front across the Ozarks into southern
KS/northern OK by peak afternoon heating. Strong instability and
moderate deep-layer shear will likely support updraft organization
and a mix of supercells and multicell clusters. Large to very large
hail should be the primary threat initially, but deep-layer shear
vectors aligned largely parallel to the boundary should foster
convective mergers and an increasing threat for severe/damaging
winds with multiple clusters that should form and spread
east-southeastward across OK and the Ozarks through the evening. At
least an isolated severe wind threat may persist overnight with
southward extent across the southern Plains into AR given the large
degree of buoyancy forecast.
A mid-level shortwave trough over WY this morning will move
east-southeastward towards the central High Plains by this
afternoon. Enhanced westerly flow aloft attendant to this shortwave
trough will overspread the central High Plains through the day. A
convectively reinforced front extends from northwest OK into the
central High Plains, and modest low-level upslope flow is forecast
to the north of this boundary today. Recent short-term guidance
continues to suggest that moderate instability will develop with
filtered daytime heating in the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong effective bulk shear. Isolated supercells that can
develop in this regime across eastern CO into western NE/KS should
pose mainly a large to isolated very large (2+ inches) hail risk
initially, before some clustering/upscale growth possibly occurs
this evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds would become an
increasing concern if this mode transition occurs, and isolated
significant gusts (75+ mph) appear possible.
..Gleason/Broyles.. 06/21/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High
Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this
afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging
winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some
potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Missouri,
Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.
...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
An MCS with a convectively augmented parent MCV extends from parts
of central MO into southeast KS/northern OK this morning. The
airmass downstream of this MCS across MO is not particularly
unstable, but greater low-level moisture and related instability is
present across northeast OK and vicinity. Current expectations are
for the MCS/MCV to continue eastward across the mid MS Valley and
Ozarks through the morning while posing an isolated threat for
severe/damaging winds. With time, some re-invigoration of the MCS
appears possible into the lower OH Valley as destabilization occurs
with daytime heating. Trailing outflow from the morning convection
will serve as a focus for additional thunderstorms later today as a
compact/enhanced low-level jet moves eastward from the Ozarks into
the mid MS/lower OH Valleys.
There still appears to be potential for more robust thunderstorm
development this afternoon across these areas along and south of the
outflow boundary/front. Moderate instability will likely develop in
the presence of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be
sufficient to support supercells. Enhanced low-level shear will also
be present owing to the eastward-migrating low-level jet. This will
foster a risk for tornadoes with any sustained supercells, and a
strong tornado appears possible. Considered greater tornado
probabilities and a categorical upgrade in a narrow corridor across
parts of MO/IL/IN, but there remains too much uncertainty regarding
sufficient destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. The
severe/damaging wind threat will also increase, with the potential
for multiple clusters to form and track eastward into the lower OH
Valley through the evening and early overnight hours.
Convective development should also occur farther west along/near the
composite outflow boundary/front across the Ozarks into southern
KS/northern OK by peak afternoon heating. Strong instability and
moderate deep-layer shear will likely support updraft organization
and a mix of supercells and multicell clusters. Large to very large
hail should be the primary threat initially, but deep-layer shear
vectors aligned largely parallel to the boundary should foster
convective mergers and an increasing threat for severe/damaging
winds with multiple clusters that should form and spread
east-southeastward across OK and the Ozarks through the evening. At
least an isolated severe wind threat may persist overnight with
southward extent across the southern Plains into AR given the large
degree of buoyancy forecast.
A mid-level shortwave trough over WY this morning will move
east-southeastward towards the central High Plains by this
afternoon. Enhanced westerly flow aloft attendant to this shortwave
trough will overspread the central High Plains through the day. A
convectively reinforced front extends from northwest OK into the
central High Plains, and modest low-level upslope flow is forecast
to the north of this boundary today. Recent short-term guidance
continues to suggest that moderate instability will develop with
filtered daytime heating in the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong effective bulk shear. Isolated supercells that can
develop in this regime across eastern CO into western NE/KS should
pose mainly a large to isolated very large (2+ inches) hail risk
initially, before some clustering/upscale growth possibly occurs
this evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds would become an
increasing concern if this mode transition occurs, and isolated
significant gusts (75+ mph) appear possible.
..Gleason/Broyles.. 06/21/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High
Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this
afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging
winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some
potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Missouri,
Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.
...Central Plains to the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
An MCS with a convectively augmented parent MCV extends from parts
of central MO into southeast KS/northern OK this morning. The
airmass downstream of this MCS across MO is not particularly
unstable, but greater low-level moisture and related instability is
present across northeast OK and vicinity. Current expectations are
for the MCS/MCV to continue eastward across the mid MS Valley and
Ozarks through the morning while posing an isolated threat for
severe/damaging winds. With time, some re-invigoration of the MCS
appears possible into the lower OH Valley as destabilization occurs
with daytime heating. Trailing outflow from the morning convection
will serve as a focus for additional thunderstorms later today as a
compact/enhanced low-level jet moves eastward from the Ozarks into
the mid MS/lower OH Valleys.
There still appears to be potential for more robust thunderstorm
development this afternoon across these areas along and south of the
outflow boundary/front. Moderate instability will likely develop in
the presence of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be
sufficient to support supercells. Enhanced low-level shear will also
be present owing to the eastward-migrating low-level jet. This will
foster a risk for tornadoes with any sustained supercells, and a
strong tornado appears possible. Considered greater tornado
probabilities and a categorical upgrade in a narrow corridor across
parts of MO/IL/IN, but there remains too much uncertainty regarding
sufficient destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. The
severe/damaging wind threat will also increase, with the potential
for multiple clusters to form and track eastward into the lower OH
Valley through the evening and early overnight hours.
Convective development should also occur farther west along/near the
composite outflow boundary/front across the Ozarks into southern
KS/northern OK by peak afternoon heating. Strong instability and
moderate deep-layer shear will likely support updraft organization
and a mix of supercells and multicell clusters. Large to very large
hail should be the primary threat initially, but deep-layer shear
vectors aligned largely parallel to the boundary should foster
convective mergers and an increasing threat for severe/damaging
winds with multiple clusters that should form and spread
east-southeastward across OK and the Ozarks through the evening. At
least an isolated severe wind threat may persist overnight with
southward extent across the southern Plains into AR given the large
degree of buoyancy forecast.
A mid-level shortwave trough over WY this morning will move
east-southeastward towards the central High Plains by this
afternoon. Enhanced westerly flow aloft attendant to this shortwave
trough will overspread the central High Plains through the day. A
convectively reinforced front extends from northwest OK into the
central High Plains, and modest low-level upslope flow is forecast
to the north of this boundary today. Recent short-term guidance
continues to suggest that moderate instability will develop with
filtered daytime heating in the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong effective bulk shear. Isolated supercells that can
develop in this regime across eastern CO into western NE/KS should
pose mainly a large to isolated very large (2+ inches) hail risk
initially, before some clustering/upscale growth possibly occurs
this evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds would become an
increasing concern if this mode transition occurs, and isolated
significant gusts (75+ mph) appear possible.
..Gleason/Broyles.. 06/21/2026
Read more
MD 1227 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 362... FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Northeast Oklahoma...Southwest
Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362...
Valid 211027Z - 211130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362
continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging wind gusts will be
possible over the next couple of hours from southeast Kansas into
northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. The threat should be too
isolated for additional weather watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...An MCS is ongoing from Kansas into far western
Missouri, on the northern side of an unstable airmass. The MCS is
being supported by strong warm advection and large-scale ascent
associated with a shortwave trough moving through the region. The
strongest part of the MCS is in southeast Kansas, where the RAP
estimates that MUCAPE is near 2000 J/kg and effective shear is
around 40 knots. This will be sufficient for an isolated severe
threat early this morning. The potential for severe wind gusts
should be maximized along the leading edge of any short bowing line
segment that can remain organized and surface-based. The severe
threat should become more isolated as inhibition continues to
increase.
..Broyles.. 06/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 38879460 38459482 38129515 37919567 37919631 37879698
37719741 37469766 36999774 36569728 36389648 36339545
36419476 36569417 36949363 37649330 38389326 38749340
38989382 38999421 38879460
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 362
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ICT
TO 40 E ICT TO 30 W CNU TO 25 SE EMP TO 20 SSW TOP TO 25 NNE TOP
TO 10 SW STJ.
..BROYLES..06/21/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 362
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-011-019-021-031-035-037-045-049-059-091-099-103-107-
121-125-133-139-205-207-209-211040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY
COWLEY CRAWFORD DOUGLAS
ELK FRANKLIN JOHNSON
LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
OSAGE WILSON WOODSON
WYANDOTTE
MOC011-013-037-047-095-097-165-217-211040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BATES CASS
CLAY JACKSON JASPER
PLATTE VERNON
Read more
WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 362
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ICT
TO 40 E ICT TO 30 W CNU TO 25 SE EMP TO 20 SSW TOP TO 25 NNE TOP
TO 10 SW STJ.
..BROYLES..06/21/26
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 362
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC001-003-011-019-021-031-035-037-045-049-059-091-099-103-107-
121-125-133-139-205-207-209-211040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY
COWLEY CRAWFORD DOUGLAS
ELK FRANKLIN JOHNSON
LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN
MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
OSAGE WILSON WOODSON
WYANDOTTE
MOC011-013-037-047-095-097-165-217-211040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BATES CASS
CLAY JACKSON JASPER
PLATTE VERNON
Read more
WW 362 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 210500Z - 211100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast and Eastern Kansas
Western Missouri
* Effective this Sunday morning from Midnight until 600 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A severe squall line will move into the Watch area
tonight. Severe straight-line wind gusts 60 to 75 mph are possible
with the more intense portions of the squall line. A brief tornado
from a mesovortex is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Leavenworth KS to 55 miles south southwest of Chanute KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 359...WW 360...WW 361...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27040.
...Smith
Read more
MD 1226 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361...362... FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Far Northern Oklahoma...Far
Western Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...362...
Valid 210736Z - 210930Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361, 362
continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated threat severe wind gusts and hail may continue
across parts of southern and eastern Kansas early this morning. The
threat may also impact far northern Oklahoma and far western
Missouri.
DISCUSSION...An MCS is ongoing across much of Kansas, along the
northern edge of a moist and unstable airmass. Moderate instability
is analyzed ahead of and to the south of the MCS with the RAP
showing MLCAPE from 1000 J/kg in eastern Kansas to 2500 J/kg in
north-central Oklahoma. The instability, along with large-scale
ascent associated with a mid-level shortwave trough over the
central Plains, will continue to support the MCS for much of the
morning. Regional WSR-88D VWPs in northeast Oklahoma and
south-central Kansas have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range
suggesting that the stronger embedded cells could be supercellular
and have some severe potential. Hail will be possible with
supercells. Severe wind gusts will likely be concentrated along
short bowing line segments. Recently, the MCS has become less
organized. This trend could continue as inhibition increases,
resulting in a more isolated and marginal severe threat with time.
..Broyles.. 06/21/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 39289573 39109454 38519403 37659395 37139408 36749453
36469523 36449661 36669755 36939787 37269794 37689779
38319714 39099637 39289573
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains...
As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on
Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across
eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability
is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly
flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable
of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the
most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher
elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be
maximized.
Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across
the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather
threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a
strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow
across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days
of substantial severe weather are possible during this period.
However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features
make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of
this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather
probabilities may be added in later outlooks.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains...
As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on
Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across
eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability
is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly
flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable
of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the
most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher
elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be
maximized.
Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across
the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather
threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a
strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow
across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days
of substantial severe weather are possible during this period.
However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features
make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of
this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather
probabilities may be added in later outlooks.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Central High Plains...
As high pressure builds into the central/northern Plains on
Wednesday and Thursday, upslope flow will remain persistent across
eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming. Moderate to strong instability
is expected in this area with 40 to 50 knots of west-northwesterly
flow aloft. This should result in a favorable upslope regime capable
of supercells. A relatively narrow unstable corridor should keep the
most favorable severe threat somewhat confined to the higher
elevation prairies where instability and upslope flow will be
maximized.
Friday and Saturday, ridging is forecast to translate east across
the Plains, which may lead to a relative lull in severe weather
threat. However, by Sunday and into early next week, there is a
strong signal for troughing and moderate to strong mid-level flow
across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Several days
of substantial severe weather are possible during this period.
However, at this time, the timing and amplitude of these features
make it challenging to highlight specific areas. As the evolution of
this mid-level pattern becomes more clear, severe weather
probabilities may be added in later outlooks.
Read more
