Storm Prediction Center

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N JLN TO JLN TO 10 ESE JLN TO 10 ESE JLN TO 15 NW UMN TO 10 NNE UMN TO 45 E SGF. ..WENDT..06/08/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-081240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-081240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-043-119-145-209-213-081240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN MCDONALD NEWTON STONE TANEY Read more

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N JLN TO JLN TO 10 ESE JLN TO 10 ESE JLN TO 15 NW UMN TO 10 NNE UMN TO 45 E SGF. ..WENDT..06/08/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-081240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-081240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-043-119-145-209-213-081240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN MCDONALD NEWTON STONE TANEY Read more

WW 286 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 080550Z - 081300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Monday morning from 1250 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity through the overnight hours, with occasionally severe storms possible. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but hail and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north of Tulsa OK to 20 miles north northeast of Harrison AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1024 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286... FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1024 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri...northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286... Valid 080923Z - 081130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage remains possible early this morning. If a stronger cold pool develops, expect southward movement of a small MCS. A tornado threat also remains, particularly with embedded supercell structures. DISCUSSION...Regional VAD data continues to show a low-level jet focused into northeast Oklahoma/southwest Missouri. This will support additional convective development through the early morning. While isolated wind damage is possible in the short term, there has been a tendency for convection to cluster in southwest Missouri. Should a stronger cold pool eventually develop, this could push farther south into the buoyancy axis. Additionally, the threat for a tornado or two remains with any supercell structures. An increase in low/mid-level rotation has been noted on KSGF/KINX velocity data over the last hour. Low-level hodographs remain large per VAD data as well. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 36139548 36859570 37379537 37549527 37129361 36809355 35639353 35739430 35799485 35939517 36139548 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1025 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1025 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...Southwestern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080946Z - 081145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts may occur with strong to occasionally severe storms in southwest Nebraska. A watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Storm cells within southwest Nebraska have shown occasional increases in intensity over the past couple of hours. This activity is occurring near the intersection of a surface trough and cold front. Greater buoyancy is displaced farther to the south, but low 60s F dewpoints with southeasterly surface winds are supporting 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. With steep mid-level lapse rates (per 00Z LBF sounding) and adequate effective shear, isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible. The primary question is whether storms can move southward and ingest greater moisture/buoyancy. This could occur if cold pools can congeal later this morning. However, with deepening of the surface low in western Kansas expected, storms may be undercut by the cold front and weaken before they can move southward. ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 40150211 41430245 41880228 41810109 41090002 40319991 40020037 39980152 40150211 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024 ..WENDT..06/08/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-081040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-081040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-011-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-081040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CHRISTIAN DADE GREENE JASPER Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thursday... An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest. Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night. At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday. A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary. Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast. ...Day 5/Friday... A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update. Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Day 6/Saturday... The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low. ...Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday... The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thursday... An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest. Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night. At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday. A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary. Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast. ...Day 5/Friday... A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update. Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Day 6/Saturday... The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low. ...Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday... The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thursday... An active period of severe weather is expected from the upper Great Lakes into Ozark Plateau, with the most concentrated and potentially most significant severe storms affecting parts of the Midwest. Within the base of an upper low centered over Manitoba and northwest Ontario, the models are in good agreement in depicting the progression of a potent short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks through the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. There is some model signal that a trailing perturbation on the immediate cyclonic side of the mid-level jet will overspread the mid MS Valley Thursday night. At the surface, a deepening surface low/frontal wave is expected to develop from central IA into the southern UP of MI during the day, along a cold front advancing through the upper Midwest and into the upper Great Lakes. The southwest extension of that boundary will progress southeast through the lower MO and Mid MS Valleys, while becoming quasi-stationary across the southern Plains. The specific boundary location across the Midwest may be modified to some extent from a thunderstorm complex moving through the area Wednesday night/early Thursday. A very moist air mass is expected to reside to the south of the surface front, which coupled with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield moderate to strong instability. The presence of a 50-70 kt mid-level jet streak attending the short-wave trough will result in relatively strong deep-layer shear along the frontal zone, with vector orientation becoming increasingly parallel to the boundary with southward extent. The overall pattern appears supportive of an organized severe-weather episode from the upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley. There is some model signal that a corridor of enhanced tornado potential could develop along and south of the surface low track from eastern IA and northern IL into central and southern WI. That potential scenario will be dictated by the location of the effective surface boundary. Additional, more isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the Northeast. ...Day 5/Friday... A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next forecast update. Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains. ...Day 6/Saturday... The ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a mid/upper-level low over Hudson Bay with a belt of strong mid-level flow extending from slight troughing over the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is more spread across the deterministic models with respect to the longitudinal position of that trough, and the position of the associated frontal system. In general, it appears some severe weather threat could materialize across the central Plains. However, confidence in that scenario is low. ...Days 7 and 8/Sunday and Monday... The ensembles indicate a gradual amplification of the large-scale pattern, featuring troughing from Hudson Bay into the MS Valley, and upstream ridging across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. The location of any relevant surface frontal systems remains highly uncertain, as does the location(s) of any severe-weather threat. Read more

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/08/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-080840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-080840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-011-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-080840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CHRISTIAN DADE GREENE JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON STONE TANEY Read more

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/08/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-080840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-080840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-011-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-080840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CHRISTIAN DADE GREENE JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON STONE TANEY Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... The 00z models have trended toward a similarly timed, but slightly more amplified short-wave trough, which will move through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley, in tandem with a 50-60+ kt jet streak. Meanwhile, a stronger upstream system is forecast to amplify across the northern and central Plains late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. At the surface, a cold front initially from the eastern Dakotas into central High Plains will push east into the upper Great Lakes. A frontal wave is forecast to develop from eastern SD into central MN by afternoon, where it may link with an outflow boundary extending into central WI. The trailing extension of the front is expected to stall across the mid or lower MO Valley in response to the deepening of a surface low over the central or southern High Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes and mid/lower Missouri Valley... A very moist boundary layer, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast ahead of the front, which coupled with steep lapse rates, will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon along the surface front and any outflow boundaries across the upper MS Valley, with subsequent, south/southwestward storm development into IA and the lower MO Valley by mid to late afternoon. The strongest deep-layer shear is forecast across the upper MS Valley into upper Midwest, with decreasing bulk-shear magnitudes with southward extent being offset by stronger instability. The CAPE/shear parameter space will favor organized storm modes including supercells and bowing structures. Large to very large hail will likely be the initial hazard, with the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes increasing as storms move into WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL, where stronger low-level shear is forecast. Additional, isolated to widely scattered storms are anticipated by late afternoon into evening across portions of the lower MO Valley into at least eastern KS. While vertical shear will be somewhat marginal, the strong instability will support strong up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds. A separate, elevated thunderstorm regime may materialize Wednesday night into Thursday morning across portions central/eastern NE and northern KS as low-level warm advection increases ahead of the next mid-level trough moving into the northern and central Plains. The strongest storms will be capable of a large-hail threat. ..Mead.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... The 00z models have trended toward a similarly timed, but slightly more amplified short-wave trough, which will move through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley, in tandem with a 50-60+ kt jet streak. Meanwhile, a stronger upstream system is forecast to amplify across the northern and central Plains late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. At the surface, a cold front initially from the eastern Dakotas into central High Plains will push east into the upper Great Lakes. A frontal wave is forecast to develop from eastern SD into central MN by afternoon, where it may link with an outflow boundary extending into central WI. The trailing extension of the front is expected to stall across the mid or lower MO Valley in response to the deepening of a surface low over the central or southern High Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes and mid/lower Missouri Valley... A very moist boundary layer, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast ahead of the front, which coupled with steep lapse rates, will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon along the surface front and any outflow boundaries across the upper MS Valley, with subsequent, south/southwestward storm development into IA and the lower MO Valley by mid to late afternoon. The strongest deep-layer shear is forecast across the upper MS Valley into upper Midwest, with decreasing bulk-shear magnitudes with southward extent being offset by stronger instability. The CAPE/shear parameter space will favor organized storm modes including supercells and bowing structures. Large to very large hail will likely be the initial hazard, with the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes increasing as storms move into WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL, where stronger low-level shear is forecast. Additional, isolated to widely scattered storms are anticipated by late afternoon into evening across portions of the lower MO Valley into at least eastern KS. While vertical shear will be somewhat marginal, the strong instability will support strong up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds. A separate, elevated thunderstorm regime may materialize Wednesday night into Thursday morning across portions central/eastern NE and northern KS as low-level warm advection increases ahead of the next mid-level trough moving into the northern and central Plains. The strongest storms will be capable of a large-hail threat. ..Mead.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... The 00z models have trended toward a similarly timed, but slightly more amplified short-wave trough, which will move through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley, in tandem with a 50-60+ kt jet streak. Meanwhile, a stronger upstream system is forecast to amplify across the northern and central Plains late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. At the surface, a cold front initially from the eastern Dakotas into central High Plains will push east into the upper Great Lakes. A frontal wave is forecast to develop from eastern SD into central MN by afternoon, where it may link with an outflow boundary extending into central WI. The trailing extension of the front is expected to stall across the mid or lower MO Valley in response to the deepening of a surface low over the central or southern High Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes and mid/lower Missouri Valley... A very moist boundary layer, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast ahead of the front, which coupled with steep lapse rates, will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon along the surface front and any outflow boundaries across the upper MS Valley, with subsequent, south/southwestward storm development into IA and the lower MO Valley by mid to late afternoon. The strongest deep-layer shear is forecast across the upper MS Valley into upper Midwest, with decreasing bulk-shear magnitudes with southward extent being offset by stronger instability. The CAPE/shear parameter space will favor organized storm modes including supercells and bowing structures. Large to very large hail will likely be the initial hazard, with the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes increasing as storms move into WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL, where stronger low-level shear is forecast. Additional, isolated to widely scattered storms are anticipated by late afternoon into evening across portions of the lower MO Valley into at least eastern KS. While vertical shear will be somewhat marginal, the strong instability will support strong up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds. A separate, elevated thunderstorm regime may materialize Wednesday night into Thursday morning across portions central/eastern NE and northern KS as low-level warm advection increases ahead of the next mid-level trough moving into the northern and central Plains. The strongest storms will be capable of a large-hail threat. ..Mead.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... The 00z models have trended toward a similarly timed, but slightly more amplified short-wave trough, which will move through the northern Plains into upper MS Valley, in tandem with a 50-60+ kt jet streak. Meanwhile, a stronger upstream system is forecast to amplify across the northern and central Plains late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. At the surface, a cold front initially from the eastern Dakotas into central High Plains will push east into the upper Great Lakes. A frontal wave is forecast to develop from eastern SD into central MN by afternoon, where it may link with an outflow boundary extending into central WI. The trailing extension of the front is expected to stall across the mid or lower MO Valley in response to the deepening of a surface low over the central or southern High Plains. ...Upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes and mid/lower Missouri Valley... A very moist boundary layer, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast ahead of the front, which coupled with steep lapse rates, will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon along the surface front and any outflow boundaries across the upper MS Valley, with subsequent, south/southwestward storm development into IA and the lower MO Valley by mid to late afternoon. The strongest deep-layer shear is forecast across the upper MS Valley into upper Midwest, with decreasing bulk-shear magnitudes with southward extent being offset by stronger instability. The CAPE/shear parameter space will favor organized storm modes including supercells and bowing structures. Large to very large hail will likely be the initial hazard, with the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes increasing as storms move into WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL, where stronger low-level shear is forecast. Additional, isolated to widely scattered storms are anticipated by late afternoon into evening across portions of the lower MO Valley into at least eastern KS. While vertical shear will be somewhat marginal, the strong instability will support strong up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds. A separate, elevated thunderstorm regime may materialize Wednesday night into Thursday morning across portions central/eastern NE and northern KS as low-level warm advection increases ahead of the next mid-level trough moving into the northern and central Plains. The strongest storms will be capable of a large-hail threat. ..Mead.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will remain in place over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Tuesday with a strong jet max moving in across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. This will result gusty winds across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies, and central High Plains. ...Southwest and Great Basin... Diurnal mixing with strong (for the season) flow aloft will result in winds of 20-30 mph across much of the region along with RH of 5-15% in the afternoon. Continued poor overnight RH recovery means fuels in this area are critically dry. Therefore, have introduced a Critical fire weather risk area here. ...Central High Plains and Foothills... Strong winds (20-30 mph and locally higher) are expected to overspread the region along with RH values in the 10-15% range west of a dryline. The primary uncertainty in this region is with the fuels, as many areas have received precipitation recently, and some may receive additional precipitation on Monday. Therefore, will add an Elevated risk in this area, though there may be some localized areas of Critical fire weather risk. ..Supinie.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will remain in place over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Tuesday with a strong jet max moving in across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. This will result gusty winds across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies, and central High Plains. ...Southwest and Great Basin... Diurnal mixing with strong (for the season) flow aloft will result in winds of 20-30 mph across much of the region along with RH of 5-15% in the afternoon. Continued poor overnight RH recovery means fuels in this area are critically dry. Therefore, have introduced a Critical fire weather risk area here. ...Central High Plains and Foothills... Strong winds (20-30 mph and locally higher) are expected to overspread the region along with RH values in the 10-15% range west of a dryline. The primary uncertainty in this region is with the fuels, as many areas have received precipitation recently, and some may receive additional precipitation on Monday. Therefore, will add an Elevated risk in this area, though there may be some localized areas of Critical fire weather risk. ..Supinie.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A longwave trough will remain in place over the northwestern CONUS through the day on Tuesday with a strong jet max moving in across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. This will result gusty winds across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies, and central High Plains. ...Southwest and Great Basin... Diurnal mixing with strong (for the season) flow aloft will result in winds of 20-30 mph across much of the region along with RH of 5-15% in the afternoon. Continued poor overnight RH recovery means fuels in this area are critically dry. Therefore, have introduced a Critical fire weather risk area here. ...Central High Plains and Foothills... Strong winds (20-30 mph and locally higher) are expected to overspread the region along with RH values in the 10-15% range west of a dryline. The primary uncertainty in this region is with the fuels, as many areas have received precipitation recently, and some may receive additional precipitation on Monday. Therefore, will add an Elevated risk in this area, though there may be some localized areas of Critical fire weather risk. ..Supinie.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... A persistent longwave trough is in place over the northwestern CONUS with perturbations moving through a belt of strong flow through the day on Monday. The associated surface low pressure will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin and central Rockies. A dry air mass and dry fuels are in place, leading to Critical fire weather risk in these areas ...Southwest, Great Basin, and the Central Rockies... Strong vertical mixing along with a strengthening pressure gradient will result in strong winds to 20-30 mph and RH near 5-15% in the afternoon. Fuels in the area have been persistently dry generally with poor overnight RH recovery exacerbating the dry fuels. Therefore, a Critical fire weather risk has been maintained here. ...Northwest New Mexico... Strong diurnal heating along with a compact jet max aloft overlapping a plume of mid-level moisture will likely result in isolated storm development across parts of northwestern New Mexico during the afternoon. A very dry boundary layer and fast storm motions suggest that this activity will be mainly dry. Due to the presence of dry fuels, have maintained an Isolated Dry Thunder area here. ..Supinie.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Synopsis... A persistent longwave trough is in place over the northwestern CONUS with perturbations moving through a belt of strong flow through the day on Monday. The associated surface low pressure will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin and central Rockies. A dry air mass and dry fuels are in place, leading to Critical fire weather risk in these areas ...Southwest, Great Basin, and the Central Rockies... Strong vertical mixing along with a strengthening pressure gradient will result in strong winds to 20-30 mph and RH near 5-15% in the afternoon. Fuels in the area have been persistently dry generally with poor overnight RH recovery exacerbating the dry fuels. Therefore, a Critical fire weather risk has been maintained here. ...Northwest New Mexico... Strong diurnal heating along with a compact jet max aloft overlapping a plume of mid-level moisture will likely result in isolated storm development across parts of northwestern New Mexico during the afternoon. A very dry boundary layer and fast storm motions suggest that this activity will be mainly dry. Due to the presence of dry fuels, have maintained an Isolated Dry Thunder area here. ..Supinie.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more