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Storm Prediction Center

SPC Jun 8, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
9 hours 39 minutes ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan and northern MT Wednesday morning. One upper shortwave trough associated with this system will be oriented over the northern High Plains Wednesday morning, and will spread eastward through the period into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. A second upper shortwave trough will deepen and develop southeast from the northern Rockies to the central High Plains by Thursday morning. At the surface, a cold front will initially be located from eastern ND toward the central High Plains. The northern portion of this front will develop east across the Upper Midwest, while the southwestern extension of the front stalls from the Mid-MO Valley into the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over NE/KS overnight. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley vicinity... Remnant convection from the Day 2/Tuesday period may be ongoing/decaying across parts of the region Wednesday morning. Furthermore, convective outflow could be positioned somewhere across the Upper Midwest. As a result, evolution of convection from the Day 2 period will likely have some impact on where corridors of greater severe potential develop on Wednesday. Regardless, rich boundary layer moisture will spread across parts of MN/WI/IA/IL as a warm front retreats northward across the Great Lakes and ahead of the advancing surface cold front. This will foster strong destabilization across the region as vertical shear increases with time. Numerous organized severe thunderstorms, possibly both supercells and bowing segments, are expected with an accompany all-hazards severe risk, particularly across parts of MN/WI and possibly IA into northern IL. With southwest extent into the Mid/Lower MO Valley, effective shear magnitudes will decrease. However, a very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the stalled surface boundary across KS to western IA. A dryline will also extend into the southern High Plains, though boundary layer moisture will also become more modest with southwest extent. Both of these boundaries will serve as a focus for a second area of severe thunderstorm potential during the late afternoon/evening, with both large hail and damaging gusts possible. Additional severe thunderstorms may develop overnight as a low-level jet strengthens and overspreads the stalled surface boundary across KS. Large hail could accompany this activity later in the forecast period. ..Leitman.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 8 18:51:02 UTC 2026

Storm Prediction Center
10 hours 11 minutes ago
No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 8 18:51:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 1027

Storm Prediction Center
10 hours 11 minutes ago
MD 1027 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into southwestern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081758Z - 081930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will evolve northeastward through the afternoon today. A brief/weak tornado or landspout cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Latest observations depict a well-defined MCV over east-central Iowa, with a weak surface reflection located near Iowa City, Iowa. A broken band of thunderstorms extends southeastward from this feature into east-central and southern Illinois, perhaps along a weak surface trough/wind shift. Regional VWPs (e.g., ILX/DVN) depict weakly-curved, low-level hodographs with ~50-75 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH within a very moist (dewpoints in the low/mid 70s F) and weakly unstable (MLCAPE 500 to locally 1500 J/kg) environment. Weak mid-level flow (less than 20-30 kts sampled by these VAD profiles) and effective shear less than 20 kts (per latest objective analysis) will limit overall storm organization and should largely preclude marginal supercell structures. Enhanced surface vertical vorticity, particularly in the vicinity of the weak surface low in eastern Iowa and, to a lesser extent, along the surface wind shift in Illinois, and modest low-level buoyancy (0-3 km CAPE up to 125 J/kg) may support some potential for a brief/weak landspout tornado, however. A localized strong wind gust (40-45 mph) also cannot be ruled out given the very moist environment. Watch issuance is not expected owing to the limited nature of this severe threat. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 42289188 42649195 43139171 43479123 43449066 43198997 42738931 41538823 40998810 40658804 40438821 40298857 40318883 40598927 40828966 41049005 41089035 41039068 41069098 41199129 41489159 41949179 42289188 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH Read more

SPC MD 1028

Storm Prediction Center
10 hours 11 minutes ago
MD 1028 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...lower Ohio River Valley into the mid-Mississippi Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081839Z - 082045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may bring a risk for isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado through this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts a well-defined MCV located southwest of St. Louis, MO. Widely scattered to scattered convection was ongoing downstream of this MCV from east-central IL southward into the mid-Mississippi Valley along a weak surface trough/wind shift, with a marginally more organized convective band located in east-central Illinois recently producing a measured 42 kt wind gust. Expectation is for this convection to evolve east-northeastward through this afternoon. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, a very moist low-level air mass is contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg. With latest objective analysis depicting pockets of modestly steeper low-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km and PWATs around 2 inches, isolated strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph (and perhaps a localized damaging wind gust) may occur with water-loaded downbursts. While weak effective shear (generally less than 20-25 kts) will limit overall convective organization, a brief tornado or landspout also cannot be ruled out should a more robust low-level updraft interact with enhanced surface vertical vorticity or weakly-curved, low-level hodographs in the vicinity of the aforementioned weak surface trough/wind shift. Watch issuance is not anticipated owing to the expectation for limited severe coverage/magnitude. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... LAT...LON 35818893 35898924 36138936 36698934 37228927 38778893 39218876 39868852 40178830 40328809 40408781 40378754 39898707 39168677 38408671 37908676 37578686 37088702 36558745 36058834 35888874 35818893 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Jun 8, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
11 hours 23 minutes ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough will be oriented from the Pacific Northwest to the southern Great Basin Tuesday morning. This feature will pivot east through the period, become positioned from southwest Saskatchewan to the central High Plains. A belt of enhanced southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the northern/central Plains ahead of the aforementioned trough. Meanwhile, an intensifying low-level jet will develop during the evening/overnight hours across much of the Plains toward the Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure over eastern MT will gradually deepen and shift east/northeast across the northern Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies. A Pacific front/dryline feature will extend southward from the low across the western Dakotas and NE. A secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of eastern CO/western KS/southwest NE, where a dryline will extend from western KS southward into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. Further east, a quasi-warm front feature is expected to extend northwest to southeast from MN to the Mid-MS Valley. This boundary may gradually lift northward through the evening/overnight in response to the low/midlevel mass response/increasing low-level jet. These boundaries will be a focus for severe storm development during the afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Northern Plains vicinity... Convection is expected to develop near the ND/MT border vicinity by mid/late afternoon along the surface boundary. A warm front should be well north of the Dakotas over the southern Canadian Prairies, and increasing southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture, supporting MLCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. South/southwesterly low-level winds will become southwesterly in the mid/upper levels, resulting in supercell wind profiles and 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Initial supercell storms are expected, though these storms may be somewhat higher-based within the more modest boundary layer moisture across the western Dakotas/far eastern MT. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible with these storms initially. As convection develops eastward into the axis of greater low-level moisture and strong instability, severe potential will increase, particularly with respect to swaths of damaging winds and tornadoes. As the low-level jet increases during the evening, and given mid/upper flow oriented parallel to the surface boundary, upscale growth into one or more linear segments is expected. As cold pool consolidation occurs, potential for significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) is expected to increase across parts of central ND. Low-level shear will also support tornado potential, whether semi-discrete supercells can be maintained, or with mesovortex generation within linear bands. As such, have left tornado probabilities similar to the prior forecast. Given the expectation that storm mode will become more linear with time, hail probabilities have been lowered (removed 45 percent). Nevertheless, large to very large hail will be possible with any discrete supercells that can be maintained or are embedded within linear segments. ...NE/SD/Mid-MO Valley vicinity... Convection emanating northeast from NE may eventually grow upscale into an MCS during the nighttime hours and spread into eastern SD and the Mid-MO Valley area. This scenario is uncertain. However, given ample deep-layer flow, extreme instability and at least subtle large-scale ascent over the region as the low-level jet overspreads this area overnight, this scenario seems plausible. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will be possible, and severe probabilities have been expanded eastward across portions of the region. ...KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM... High-based convection is expected to develop along the surface dryline during the late afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing will support steep low-level lapse rates. 500 mb temperatures around -10 C also will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km per regional forecast soundings. Deep layer shear will not be as strong as further north, but strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support severe wind gusts. There is some potential that if storms can be maintained further east toward better low-level moisture as the low-level jet increases during the evening, a swath of significant wind gusts could occur across the southwest KS vicinity. Severe probabilities have been increased across portions of the area given a favorable environment and strong signal within most forecast guidance. ...Mid-MS Valley into Lower OH Valley... A quasi-warm front/moisture boundary will overlap the region from northwest to southeast, and is likely to lift northward toward Lake MI overnight. Large-scale ascent will remain weak until late in the period. Nevertheless, strong instability within a very moist and unstable airmass will support isolated severe wind gusts potential through peak heating with any storms that develop. Additional storms may develop overnight from WI into northern IL as the low-level jet noses into the region resulting in strong warm advection atop the surface boundary. While this activity may remain elevated above the nocturnal stable layer, some potential for strong gusts or marginal hail is possible. ..Leitman.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC Jun 8, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
11 hours 23 minutes ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough will be oriented from the Pacific Northwest to the southern Great Basin Tuesday morning. This feature will pivot east through the period, become positioned from southwest Saskatchewan to the central High Plains. A belt of enhanced southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the northern/central Plains ahead of the aforementioned trough. Meanwhile, an intensifying low-level jet will develop during the evening/overnight hours across much of the Plains toward the Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure over eastern MT will gradually deepen and shift east/northeast across the northern Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies. A Pacific front/dryline feature will extend southward from the low across the western Dakotas and NE. A secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of eastern CO/western KS/southwest NE, where a dryline will extend from western KS southward into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. Further east, a quasi-warm front feature is expected to extend northwest to southeast from MN to the Mid-MS Valley. This boundary may gradually lift northward through the evening/overnight in response to the low/midlevel mass response/increasing low-level jet. These boundaries will be a focus for severe storm development during the afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Northern Plains vicinity... Convection is expected to develop near the ND/MT border vicinity by mid/late afternoon along the surface boundary. A warm front should be well north of the Dakotas over the southern Canadian Prairies, and increasing southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward into the region. Cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture, supporting MLCAPE increasing to 3000-4000 J/kg. South/southwesterly low-level winds will become southwesterly in the mid/upper levels, resulting in supercell wind profiles and 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Initial supercell storms are expected, though these storms may be somewhat higher-based within the more modest boundary layer moisture across the western Dakotas/far eastern MT. Large hail and damaging gusts are possible with these storms initially. As convection develops eastward into the axis of greater low-level moisture and strong instability, severe potential will increase, particularly with respect to swaths of damaging winds and tornadoes. As the low-level jet increases during the evening, and given mid/upper flow oriented parallel to the surface boundary, upscale growth into one or more linear segments is expected. As cold pool consolidation occurs, potential for significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) is expected to increase across parts of central ND. Low-level shear will also support tornado potential, whether semi-discrete supercells can be maintained, or with mesovortex generation within linear bands. As such, have left tornado probabilities similar to the prior forecast. Given the expectation that storm mode will become more linear with time, hail probabilities have been lowered (removed 45 percent). Nevertheless, large to very large hail will be possible with any discrete supercells that can be maintained or are embedded within linear segments. ...NE/SD/Mid-MO Valley vicinity... Convection emanating northeast from NE may eventually grow upscale into an MCS during the nighttime hours and spread into eastern SD and the Mid-MO Valley area. This scenario is uncertain. However, given ample deep-layer flow, extreme instability and at least subtle large-scale ascent over the region as the low-level jet overspreads this area overnight, this scenario seems plausible. If this occurs, damaging wind potential will be possible, and severe probabilities have been expanded eastward across portions of the region. ...KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM... High-based convection is expected to develop along the surface dryline during the late afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing will support steep low-level lapse rates. 500 mb temperatures around -10 C also will support steep midlevel lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km per regional forecast soundings. Deep layer shear will not be as strong as further north, but strong instability and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support severe wind gusts. There is some potential that if storms can be maintained further east toward better low-level moisture as the low-level jet increases during the evening, a swath of significant wind gusts could occur across the southwest KS vicinity. Severe probabilities have been increased across portions of the area given a favorable environment and strong signal within most forecast guidance. ...Mid-MS Valley into Lower OH Valley... A quasi-warm front/moisture boundary will overlap the region from northwest to southeast, and is likely to lift northward toward Lake MI overnight. Large-scale ascent will remain weak until late in the period. Nevertheless, strong instability within a very moist and unstable airmass will support isolated severe wind gusts potential through peak heating with any storms that develop. Additional storms may develop overnight from WI into northern IL as the low-level jet noses into the region resulting in strong warm advection atop the surface boundary. While this activity may remain elevated above the nocturnal stable layer, some potential for strong gusts or marginal hail is possible. ..Leitman.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC Jun 8, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
12 hours 6 minutes ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FROM NORTHERN INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms potentially capable of large to giant hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible over the plains of eastern Colorado. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are possible farther east over northern Kansas late this afternoon through the late evening. Severe gusts ranging from 60-100 mph are possible along with a risk for a couple of tornadoes. ...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS... A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained over the central High Plains to the downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. A surface low near Dodge City, KS and moist easterly low-level flow to its north, will contribute to upslope flow into eastern CO and the CO Front Range. Strong heating and 50s to lower 60s deg F dewpoints and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will result in moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells with the more intense updrafts. Some increase in low-level hodographs towards early evening coupled with a moist boundary layer may aid in the risk for supercell tornadoes, in addition to the risk for hail. Some of the latest model forecast soundings suggest giant hail (3.0-4.5 inches in diameter) with the more intense supercells over eastern CO late this afternoon into the early evening. Severe gusts will also be possible with the stronger storms with this activity diminishing by late evening. ...KS vicinity... A very moist surface was analyzed this morning across the central Great Plains to the south of a front across central and northern KS to the east of a triple point. Model guidance shows lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios of 16-18 g/kg later this afternoon. This very rich moisture coupled with heating to the south of the front and early day outflow from storm activity over southwest NE, will result in a very unstable airmass by late afternoon. Model guidance has trended towards a severe MCS developing across northern KS and moving east-southeastward into the lower MO Valley by late evening. Although it remains unclear exactly how this will evolve, confidence has increased with regard to a storm cluster and upscale growth occurring on the northern rim of very rich moisture and a modest southerly LLJ. Some indication exists for a couple of supercells to develop ahead of the evolving cluster and eventual squall line. Large hail and perhaps a tornado risk could accompany this activity. Have increased severe-wind probabilities and intensity levels, with the most intense phase of the squall line likely where the overlap of greater effective shear (30-35 kt) and the large buoyancy resides. A bow potentially capable of a swath of 60-80 mph gusts (locally peaking 80-100 mph) is forecast, along with the possibility for a couple of mesovortices capable of these locally higher gusts and/or tornadoes. A gradual weakening is expected as this MCS moves into western parts of MO late. ...Southern KS/Northwest OK... A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle into south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These high-based supercells could pose an occasional threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...Southern IL/Western KY... An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today. ..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC Jun 8, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
12 hours 6 minutes ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FROM NORTHERN INTO EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms potentially capable of large to giant hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible over the plains of eastern Colorado. Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are possible farther east over northern Kansas late this afternoon through the late evening. Severe gusts ranging from 60-100 mph are possible along with a risk for a couple of tornadoes. ...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS... A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained over the central High Plains to the downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. A surface low near Dodge City, KS and moist easterly low-level flow to its north, will contribute to upslope flow into eastern CO and the CO Front Range. Strong heating and 50s to lower 60s deg F dewpoints and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will result in moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. Elongated hodographs will favor supercells with the more intense updrafts. Some increase in low-level hodographs towards early evening coupled with a moist boundary layer may aid in the risk for supercell tornadoes, in addition to the risk for hail. Some of the latest model forecast soundings suggest giant hail (3.0-4.5 inches in diameter) with the more intense supercells over eastern CO late this afternoon into the early evening. Severe gusts will also be possible with the stronger storms with this activity diminishing by late evening. ...KS vicinity... A very moist surface was analyzed this morning across the central Great Plains to the south of a front across central and northern KS to the east of a triple point. Model guidance shows lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios of 16-18 g/kg later this afternoon. This very rich moisture coupled with heating to the south of the front and early day outflow from storm activity over southwest NE, will result in a very unstable airmass by late afternoon. Model guidance has trended towards a severe MCS developing across northern KS and moving east-southeastward into the lower MO Valley by late evening. Although it remains unclear exactly how this will evolve, confidence has increased with regard to a storm cluster and upscale growth occurring on the northern rim of very rich moisture and a modest southerly LLJ. Some indication exists for a couple of supercells to develop ahead of the evolving cluster and eventual squall line. Large hail and perhaps a tornado risk could accompany this activity. Have increased severe-wind probabilities and intensity levels, with the most intense phase of the squall line likely where the overlap of greater effective shear (30-35 kt) and the large buoyancy resides. A bow potentially capable of a swath of 60-80 mph gusts (locally peaking 80-100 mph) is forecast, along with the possibility for a couple of mesovortices capable of these locally higher gusts and/or tornadoes. A gradual weakening is expected as this MCS moves into western parts of MO late. ...Southern KS/Northwest OK... A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle into south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These high-based supercells could pose an occasional threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...Southern IL/Western KY... An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today. ..Smith/Chalmers.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
12 hours 20 minutes ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Northwestern NM into southern CO... Daytime instability, influx of mid-level moisture from the southwest and presence of a dry, sub-cloud layer should promote mainly dry thunderstorms this afternoon across northwestern NM. Fuels continue to dry with ERC percentiles at or above the 90th percentile across the Four Corners region which could better support lightning ignitions. Nocturnal convection is possible across northwestern NM northward towards the San Juan Mountains in south-central CO as mid-level flow and shear increase ahead of an approaching upper short-wave trough this evening and overnight. A slight northward expansion of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm Highlights into south-central CO was warranted based on latest short term model guidance. ...Southwest, Great Basin and Central Rockies... Minor adjustments were made to the existing Elevated and Critical highlights over the Great Basin and Central Rockies. Elevated highlights were extended northward into northeastern NV and southern ID based on latest forecast guidance, surface observation trends, lack of recent rainfall and near critically dry fuels. Otherwise, forecast remains largely on track for expansive critical fire weather conditions including southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH of 5-15% by this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin, northern AZ, southern UT into south-central WY. ..Williams.. 06/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... A persistent longwave trough is in place over the northwestern CONUS with perturbations moving through a belt of strong flow through the day on Monday. The associated surface low pressure will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin and central Rockies. A dry air mass and dry fuels are in place, leading to Critical fire weather risk in these areas ...Southwest, Great Basin, and the Central Rockies... Strong vertical mixing along with a strengthening pressure gradient will result in strong winds to 20-30 mph and RH near 5-15% in the afternoon. Fuels in the area have been persistently dry generally with poor overnight RH recovery exacerbating the dry fuels. Therefore, a Critical fire weather risk has been maintained here. ...Northwest New Mexico... Strong diurnal heating along with a compact jet max aloft overlapping a plume of mid-level moisture will likely result in isolated storm development across parts of northwestern New Mexico during the afternoon. A very dry boundary layer and fast storm motions suggest that this activity will be mainly dry. Due to the presence of dry fuels, have maintained an Isolated Dry Thunder area here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
12 hours 20 minutes ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Northwestern NM into southern CO... Daytime instability, influx of mid-level moisture from the southwest and presence of a dry, sub-cloud layer should promote mainly dry thunderstorms this afternoon across northwestern NM. Fuels continue to dry with ERC percentiles at or above the 90th percentile across the Four Corners region which could better support lightning ignitions. Nocturnal convection is possible across northwestern NM northward towards the San Juan Mountains in south-central CO as mid-level flow and shear increase ahead of an approaching upper short-wave trough this evening and overnight. A slight northward expansion of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm Highlights into south-central CO was warranted based on latest short term model guidance. ...Southwest, Great Basin and Central Rockies... Minor adjustments were made to the existing Elevated and Critical highlights over the Great Basin and Central Rockies. Elevated highlights were extended northward into northeastern NV and southern ID based on latest forecast guidance, surface observation trends, lack of recent rainfall and near critically dry fuels. Otherwise, forecast remains largely on track for expansive critical fire weather conditions including southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH of 5-15% by this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin, northern AZ, southern UT into south-central WY. ..Williams.. 06/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... A persistent longwave trough is in place over the northwestern CONUS with perturbations moving through a belt of strong flow through the day on Monday. The associated surface low pressure will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin and central Rockies. A dry air mass and dry fuels are in place, leading to Critical fire weather risk in these areas ...Southwest, Great Basin, and the Central Rockies... Strong vertical mixing along with a strengthening pressure gradient will result in strong winds to 20-30 mph and RH near 5-15% in the afternoon. Fuels in the area have been persistently dry generally with poor overnight RH recovery exacerbating the dry fuels. Therefore, a Critical fire weather risk has been maintained here. ...Northwest New Mexico... Strong diurnal heating along with a compact jet max aloft overlapping a plume of mid-level moisture will likely result in isolated storm development across parts of northwestern New Mexico during the afternoon. A very dry boundary layer and fast storm motions suggest that this activity will be mainly dry. Due to the presence of dry fuels, have maintained an Isolated Dry Thunder area here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
12 hours 20 minutes ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...Northwestern NM into southern CO... Daytime instability, influx of mid-level moisture from the southwest and presence of a dry, sub-cloud layer should promote mainly dry thunderstorms this afternoon across northwestern NM. Fuels continue to dry with ERC percentiles at or above the 90th percentile across the Four Corners region which could better support lightning ignitions. Nocturnal convection is possible across northwestern NM northward towards the San Juan Mountains in south-central CO as mid-level flow and shear increase ahead of an approaching upper short-wave trough this evening and overnight. A slight northward expansion of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm Highlights into south-central CO was warranted based on latest short term model guidance. ...Southwest, Great Basin and Central Rockies... Minor adjustments were made to the existing Elevated and Critical highlights over the Great Basin and Central Rockies. Elevated highlights were extended northward into northeastern NV and southern ID based on latest forecast guidance, surface observation trends, lack of recent rainfall and near critically dry fuels. Otherwise, forecast remains largely on track for expansive critical fire weather conditions including southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH of 5-15% by this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin, northern AZ, southern UT into south-central WY. ..Williams.. 06/08/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026/ ...Synopsis... A persistent longwave trough is in place over the northwestern CONUS with perturbations moving through a belt of strong flow through the day on Monday. The associated surface low pressure will result in breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin and central Rockies. A dry air mass and dry fuels are in place, leading to Critical fire weather risk in these areas ...Southwest, Great Basin, and the Central Rockies... Strong vertical mixing along with a strengthening pressure gradient will result in strong winds to 20-30 mph and RH near 5-15% in the afternoon. Fuels in the area have been persistently dry generally with poor overnight RH recovery exacerbating the dry fuels. Therefore, a Critical fire weather risk has been maintained here. ...Northwest New Mexico... Strong diurnal heating along with a compact jet max aloft overlapping a plume of mid-level moisture will likely result in isolated storm development across parts of northwestern New Mexico during the afternoon. A very dry boundary layer and fast storm motions suggest that this activity will be mainly dry. Due to the presence of dry fuels, have maintained an Isolated Dry Thunder area here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Jun 8 16:42:02 UTC 2026

Storm Prediction Center
12 hours 20 minutes ago
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 8 16:42:02 UTC 2026.

SPC MD 1026

Storm Prediction Center
15 hours 12 minutes ago
MD 1026 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286... FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1026 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri...northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286... Valid 081209Z - 081415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado remain possible with a small MCS moving generally southward this morning. A local extension of the watch is possible, but expected limited/slow destabilization downstream of this activity gives low confidence in the need for an additional watch this morning. DISCUSSION...As cold pools have congealed this morning, a small MCS formed and has been slowly moving southward over the last 1-2 hours. Some continued southward movement (with perhaps some westerly component into the large MUCAPE reservoir in OK) can be expected over the next couple of hours. A more north-south oriented portion of the line south of Springfield, MO, will likely continue east. Damaging winds remain the greatest threat, though a tornado is still possible. The tornado threat will be greatest with the north-south portion of the system given the more favorable, orthogonal low-level shear vector. It is unclear how long this activity will last as the low-level jet will gradually decrease and visible satellite shows a low-level cloud deck. Trends will be monitored and a local extension of the watch is possible, but an additional watch is not currently expected. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 36319585 37219559 37299528 37069470 37009423 37049377 37269327 37189289 36559273 35569335 35269436 35579529 36319585 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Jun 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
16 hours 55 minutes ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the end of the period in the northern High Plains. ...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS... Relatively fast southwest flow aloft is present today from the southwest states into the central Rockies. A surface low will remain over southwest KS through the day, maintaining a stream of easterly low-level winds and moist advection into eastern CO and northwest KS. Daytime heating will further aid the westward transport of moisture, resulting in an unstable air mass over the foothills near Denver/CO Springs. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor this afternoon, in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates, CAPE around 1000 J/kg, and favorable deep-layer shear. Supercell structures capable of large hail will be the main early threat. As this activity moves/builds eastward into the Plains, it will encounter increasingly moist/unstable air and strengthening low-level shear profiles by early evening. This will promote a risk of a few supercell tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk may be needed in later updates as clouds/daytime heating and affects of ongoing NE convection is assessed. By mid-evening, the activity is expected to be organizing upscale into linear structures as it moves into southwest NE and northwest KS. An increasing risk of damaging winds will likely develop, with storms spreading eastward into the overnight hours. ...Northwest AR... A cluster of intense thunderstorms is ongoing this morning over southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity could continue to pose a risk of isolated damaging wind gusts through the morning into northwest AR before weakening later today. ...Southern KS/Northwest OK/TX Panhandle... A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle to the surface low in south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These high-based cells could pose an occasional threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...Eastern KS... A moist and very unstable air mass will lie across eastern KS today with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but with a weak cap. CAM guidance varies on the potential for afternoon/early evening thunderstorms in this area, but enough 00z runs suggested a threat to maintain the SLGT. Any storm that can form would pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...Southern IL/Western KY... An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC Jun 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
16 hours 55 minutes ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the end of the period in the northern High Plains. ...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS... Relatively fast southwest flow aloft is present today from the southwest states into the central Rockies. A surface low will remain over southwest KS through the day, maintaining a stream of easterly low-level winds and moist advection into eastern CO and northwest KS. Daytime heating will further aid the westward transport of moisture, resulting in an unstable air mass over the foothills near Denver/CO Springs. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor this afternoon, in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates, CAPE around 1000 J/kg, and favorable deep-layer shear. Supercell structures capable of large hail will be the main early threat. As this activity moves/builds eastward into the Plains, it will encounter increasingly moist/unstable air and strengthening low-level shear profiles by early evening. This will promote a risk of a few supercell tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk may be needed in later updates as clouds/daytime heating and affects of ongoing NE convection is assessed. By mid-evening, the activity is expected to be organizing upscale into linear structures as it moves into southwest NE and northwest KS. An increasing risk of damaging winds will likely develop, with storms spreading eastward into the overnight hours. ...Northwest AR... A cluster of intense thunderstorms is ongoing this morning over southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity could continue to pose a risk of isolated damaging wind gusts through the morning into northwest AR before weakening later today. ...Southern KS/Northwest OK/TX Panhandle... A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle to the surface low in south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These high-based cells could pose an occasional threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...Eastern KS... A moist and very unstable air mass will lie across eastern KS today with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but with a weak cap. CAM guidance varies on the potential for afternoon/early evening thunderstorms in this area, but enough 00z runs suggested a threat to maintain the SLGT. Any storm that can form would pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...Southern IL/Western KY... An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC Jun 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
16 hours 55 minutes ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the end of the period in the northern High Plains. ...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS... Relatively fast southwest flow aloft is present today from the southwest states into the central Rockies. A surface low will remain over southwest KS through the day, maintaining a stream of easterly low-level winds and moist advection into eastern CO and northwest KS. Daytime heating will further aid the westward transport of moisture, resulting in an unstable air mass over the foothills near Denver/CO Springs. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor this afternoon, in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates, CAPE around 1000 J/kg, and favorable deep-layer shear. Supercell structures capable of large hail will be the main early threat. As this activity moves/builds eastward into the Plains, it will encounter increasingly moist/unstable air and strengthening low-level shear profiles by early evening. This will promote a risk of a few supercell tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk may be needed in later updates as clouds/daytime heating and affects of ongoing NE convection is assessed. By mid-evening, the activity is expected to be organizing upscale into linear structures as it moves into southwest NE and northwest KS. An increasing risk of damaging winds will likely develop, with storms spreading eastward into the overnight hours. ...Northwest AR... A cluster of intense thunderstorms is ongoing this morning over southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity could continue to pose a risk of isolated damaging wind gusts through the morning into northwest AR before weakening later today. ...Southern KS/Northwest OK/TX Panhandle... A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle to the surface low in south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These high-based cells could pose an occasional threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...Eastern KS... A moist and very unstable air mass will lie across eastern KS today with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but with a weak cap. CAM guidance varies on the potential for afternoon/early evening thunderstorms in this area, but enough 00z runs suggested a threat to maintain the SLGT. Any storm that can form would pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...Southern IL/Western KY... An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC Jun 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
16 hours 55 minutes ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the end of the period in the northern High Plains. ...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS... Relatively fast southwest flow aloft is present today from the southwest states into the central Rockies. A surface low will remain over southwest KS through the day, maintaining a stream of easterly low-level winds and moist advection into eastern CO and northwest KS. Daytime heating will further aid the westward transport of moisture, resulting in an unstable air mass over the foothills near Denver/CO Springs. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor this afternoon, in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates, CAPE around 1000 J/kg, and favorable deep-layer shear. Supercell structures capable of large hail will be the main early threat. As this activity moves/builds eastward into the Plains, it will encounter increasingly moist/unstable air and strengthening low-level shear profiles by early evening. This will promote a risk of a few supercell tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk may be needed in later updates as clouds/daytime heating and affects of ongoing NE convection is assessed. By mid-evening, the activity is expected to be organizing upscale into linear structures as it moves into southwest NE and northwest KS. An increasing risk of damaging winds will likely develop, with storms spreading eastward into the overnight hours. ...Northwest AR... A cluster of intense thunderstorms is ongoing this morning over southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity could continue to pose a risk of isolated damaging wind gusts through the morning into northwest AR before weakening later today. ...Southern KS/Northwest OK/TX Panhandle... A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle to the surface low in south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These high-based cells could pose an occasional threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...Eastern KS... A moist and very unstable air mass will lie across eastern KS today with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but with a weak cap. CAM guidance varies on the potential for afternoon/early evening thunderstorms in this area, but enough 00z runs suggested a threat to maintain the SLGT. Any storm that can form would pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...Southern IL/Western KY... An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC Jun 8, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
16 hours 55 minutes ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the end of the period in the northern High Plains. ...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS... Relatively fast southwest flow aloft is present today from the southwest states into the central Rockies. A surface low will remain over southwest KS through the day, maintaining a stream of easterly low-level winds and moist advection into eastern CO and northwest KS. Daytime heating will further aid the westward transport of moisture, resulting in an unstable air mass over the foothills near Denver/CO Springs. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor this afternoon, in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates, CAPE around 1000 J/kg, and favorable deep-layer shear. Supercell structures capable of large hail will be the main early threat. As this activity moves/builds eastward into the Plains, it will encounter increasingly moist/unstable air and strengthening low-level shear profiles by early evening. This will promote a risk of a few supercell tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk may be needed in later updates as clouds/daytime heating and affects of ongoing NE convection is assessed. By mid-evening, the activity is expected to be organizing upscale into linear structures as it moves into southwest NE and northwest KS. An increasing risk of damaging winds will likely develop, with storms spreading eastward into the overnight hours. ...Northwest AR... A cluster of intense thunderstorms is ongoing this morning over southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity could continue to pose a risk of isolated damaging wind gusts through the morning into northwest AR before weakening later today. ...Southern KS/Northwest OK/TX Panhandle... A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle to the surface low in south-central KS. Hot conditions along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated thunderstorms. These high-based cells could pose an occasional threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...Eastern KS... A moist and very unstable air mass will lie across eastern KS today with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but with a weak cap. CAM guidance varies on the potential for afternoon/early evening thunderstorms in this area, but enough 00z runs suggested a threat to maintain the SLGT. Any storm that can form would pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. ...Southern IL/Western KY... An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/08/2026 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
17 hours 29 minutes ago
WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N JLN TO JLN TO 10 ESE JLN TO 10 ESE JLN TO 15 NW UMN TO 10 NNE UMN TO 45 E SGF. ..WENDT..06/08/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-081240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-081240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-043-119-145-209-213-081240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN MCDONALD NEWTON STONE TANEY Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286 Status Reports

Storm Prediction Center
17 hours 29 minutes ago
WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N JLN TO JLN TO 10 ESE JLN TO 10 ESE JLN TO 15 NW UMN TO 10 NNE UMN TO 45 E SGF. ..WENDT..06/08/26 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-081240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-081240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-043-119-145-209-213-081240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN MCDONALD NEWTON STONE TANEY Read more
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