SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 132000Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated strong to severe winds are still
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Southeast,
southern into central Arizona, and Montana.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged, with only minor
changes made to the thunder/severe probabilities to reflect the
latest observations and guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 07/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026/
An expansive upper ridge over the northern Plains will dominate the
weather across the US today, with only small areas of risk of severe
storms.
...FL/GA...
A hot and humid air mass is present today over the FL Peninsula into
parts of southeast GA/SC. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are
expected to form in this regime, with the strongest cells capable of
gusty/damaging winds.
...AZ...
Widespread convection yesterday has resulted in a moist boundary
layer across southern AZ, where strong heating will occur again
today. This will lead to another round of scattered storms moving
off the higher terrain of eastern AZ and speading westward into the
Deserts. A few of the storms may produce gusty/damaging winds.
...MT...
Morning CAM solutions are consistent on the forecast of a cluster of
high-based thunderstorms forming over the mountains of southern MT
and tracking north-northeastward during the evening. Forecast
soundings would support some risk of a gusty/damaging winds in these
storms.
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Afternoon Update...
The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area was expanded into portions
of the Klamath-Siskiyou region and Northern Coast Ranges of
California for Day 2/Tuesday. Forecast soundings depict deep
inverted-V profiles, sufficient afternoon MUCAPE values of 100-300
J/kg, PWATs less than 0.8", and fast LCL-EL mean winds of over 25
kts, warranting the expansion of highlights. The rest of the
forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
Much of the Continental US will experience strong mid-level ridging
on Tuesday. Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the
western periphery of the ridge will result in isolated dry
thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest, and dry and
breezy conditions across the northern High Plains will result in
Elevated fire-weather concerns.
...Northern High Plains...
In response to a developing surface low in eastern Montana,
east-southeasterly winds of 15-20 MPH are anticipated across the
northern High Plains into central Wyoming. Combined with widespread
relative humidity near 10-15% and critically receptive fuels, at
least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast for Tuesday
afternoon.
...Southern and Central Oregon into portions of northeastern
California and northwestern Nevada...
Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the periphery of the
mid-level ridge will bring more isolated dry thunderstorms to
portions of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. HREF/REFS calibrated
thunder guidance shows convective activity occurring with
precipitable water content of 0.75-1.0", suggesting a mix of wet and
dry thunderstorms. However, forecast sounding profiles show deep
inverted-Vs and LCL-EL mean wind speeds of 25-30 kts indicate
limited precipitation efficiency. Given fuels guidance showing ERCs
in the 80th-90th annual percentile range, lightning-based ignitions
will be possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Afternoon Update...
The Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area was expanded into portions
of the Klamath-Siskiyou region and Northern Coast Ranges of
California for Day 2/Tuesday. Forecast soundings depict deep
inverted-V profiles, sufficient afternoon MUCAPE values of 100-300
J/kg, PWATs less than 0.8", and fast LCL-EL mean winds of over 25
kts, warranting the expansion of highlights. The rest of the
forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
Much of the Continental US will experience strong mid-level ridging
on Tuesday. Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the
western periphery of the ridge will result in isolated dry
thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest, and dry and
breezy conditions across the northern High Plains will result in
Elevated fire-weather concerns.
...Northern High Plains...
In response to a developing surface low in eastern Montana,
east-southeasterly winds of 15-20 MPH are anticipated across the
northern High Plains into central Wyoming. Combined with widespread
relative humidity near 10-15% and critically receptive fuels, at
least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast for Tuesday
afternoon.
...Southern and Central Oregon into portions of northeastern
California and northwestern Nevada...
Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the periphery of the
mid-level ridge will bring more isolated dry thunderstorms to
portions of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. HREF/REFS calibrated
thunder guidance shows convective activity occurring with
precipitable water content of 0.75-1.0", suggesting a mix of wet and
dry thunderstorms. However, forecast sounding profiles show deep
inverted-Vs and LCL-EL mean wind speeds of 25-30 kts indicate
limited precipitation efficiency. Given fuels guidance showing ERCs
in the 80th-90th annual percentile range, lightning-based ignitions
will be possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The potential for organized severe storms continues to appear low on
Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
An expansive ridge will be present across the CONUS on Wednesday.
Upper-level troughs will be present near the Northwest coast and in
the Northeast, however. A few stronger storms will be possible
within western and central Montana, though repeated convection on
previous days will likely lead to cooler temperatures and uncertain
storm intensity. While there still is some uncertainty to the track
of the upper trough off the Northwest coast, some potential exists
for gusty outflow wind in central/eastern Oregon. Across parts of
the Mid-Atlantic, a moist and unstable airmass will be present south
of a surface boundary. Subtle mid-level height falls may be enough
to initiate isolated thunderstorms. However, there is also potential
for the environment to stay capped. The environment would support
damaging winds if storms can form.
..Wendt.. 07/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The potential for organized severe storms continues to appear low on
Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
An expansive ridge will be present across the CONUS on Wednesday.
Upper-level troughs will be present near the Northwest coast and in
the Northeast, however. A few stronger storms will be possible
within western and central Montana, though repeated convection on
previous days will likely lead to cooler temperatures and uncertain
storm intensity. While there still is some uncertainty to the track
of the upper trough off the Northwest coast, some potential exists
for gusty outflow wind in central/eastern Oregon. Across parts of
the Mid-Atlantic, a moist and unstable airmass will be present south
of a surface boundary. Subtle mid-level height falls may be enough
to initiate isolated thunderstorms. However, there is also potential
for the environment to stay capped. The environment would support
damaging winds if storms can form.
..Wendt.. 07/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and
evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
western and central Montana.
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the CONUS on
Tuesday. A strong upper trough will move into New England during the
evening/overnight along with a surface cold front. Additional
moderate mid-level flow will be present over the northern Rockies
along with weaker shortwave troughs moving through the region.
...New England...
Strong northwesterly flow aloft will be present at the start of the
forecast period. Models suggest that a subtle perturbation may be
moving through the region early in the day. Some convection may be
associated with this feature, though the expectation is that this
activity will be weakening with time. Any cloud cover from this
activity would delay surface heating in some areas. Nevertheless,
heating/moistening ahead of the cold front appears more than
sufficient for severe storm development by late afternoon into the
evening. Initial development will likely occur in southern Quebec
along the front and move into New England. The strongest forcing for
ascent within the region will also be after 03Z. 2500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE near the Canadian border during the late afternoon with
around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE persisting into early evening across parts
of New England. Linear forcing along the cold front will not be
overly strong and large component of the 50+ kt of effective shear
will be perpendicular to this boundary. Supercell structures will be
favored, though bowing structures may also develop due to storm
interactions or locally greater linear forcing. Large hail,
including potential for 2+ in. with supercells, is possible.
Severe/damaging winds are also expected. Bowing segments that
develop will have potential for significant wind gusts. Low-level
hodographs will also support a threat for a few tornadoes. A strong
tornado is possible, but will be conditional on a discrete supercell
persisting into the early evening.
...Montana...
Development of a surface low in parts of eastern Montana/Wyoming
will draw low-level moisture westward along a stalled surface
boundary. Additionally, mid-level moisture will increase from the
southwest around the western edge of the upper-level ridge. This,
coupled with a shortwave trough during the late afternoon, will
promote widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms within the
higher terrain of southwest/central Montana. Around 30-35 kt of
effective shear will promote a mix of marginal supercells and linear
segments. Moisture will be more modest with western extent and
outflow production will be more efficient. This should generally
lead to more linear modes quickly. Buoyancy will also be modest
(750-1250 J/kg MUCAPE) given 50s F dewpoints into western Montana.
North of the surface low there will likely be a belt of greater
surface moisture (low 60s F, potentially) that advects into the
higher terrain of central Montana. Here, a couple of supercells
could develop and be surface based. This could also be an area where
linear structures could better organize due to more moist inflow. At
present time, this more favorable environment appears too spatially
limited for an increase in wind/hail probabilities.
..Wendt.. 07/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and
evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
western and central Montana.
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the CONUS on
Tuesday. A strong upper trough will move into New England during the
evening/overnight along with a surface cold front. Additional
moderate mid-level flow will be present over the northern Rockies
along with weaker shortwave troughs moving through the region.
...New England...
Strong northwesterly flow aloft will be present at the start of the
forecast period. Models suggest that a subtle perturbation may be
moving through the region early in the day. Some convection may be
associated with this feature, though the expectation is that this
activity will be weakening with time. Any cloud cover from this
activity would delay surface heating in some areas. Nevertheless,
heating/moistening ahead of the cold front appears more than
sufficient for severe storm development by late afternoon into the
evening. Initial development will likely occur in southern Quebec
along the front and move into New England. The strongest forcing for
ascent within the region will also be after 03Z. 2500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE near the Canadian border during the late afternoon with
around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE persisting into early evening across parts
of New England. Linear forcing along the cold front will not be
overly strong and large component of the 50+ kt of effective shear
will be perpendicular to this boundary. Supercell structures will be
favored, though bowing structures may also develop due to storm
interactions or locally greater linear forcing. Large hail,
including potential for 2+ in. with supercells, is possible.
Severe/damaging winds are also expected. Bowing segments that
develop will have potential for significant wind gusts. Low-level
hodographs will also support a threat for a few tornadoes. A strong
tornado is possible, but will be conditional on a discrete supercell
persisting into the early evening.
...Montana...
Development of a surface low in parts of eastern Montana/Wyoming
will draw low-level moisture westward along a stalled surface
boundary. Additionally, mid-level moisture will increase from the
southwest around the western edge of the upper-level ridge. This,
coupled with a shortwave trough during the late afternoon, will
promote widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms within the
higher terrain of southwest/central Montana. Around 30-35 kt of
effective shear will promote a mix of marginal supercells and linear
segments. Moisture will be more modest with western extent and
outflow production will be more efficient. This should generally
lead to more linear modes quickly. Buoyancy will also be modest
(750-1250 J/kg MUCAPE) given 50s F dewpoints into western Montana.
North of the surface low there will likely be a belt of greater
surface moisture (low 60s F, potentially) that advects into the
higher terrain of central Montana. Here, a couple of supercells
could develop and be surface based. This could also be an area where
linear structures could better organize due to more moist inflow. At
present time, this more favorable environment appears too spatially
limited for an increase in wind/hail probabilities.
..Wendt.. 07/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and
evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional
strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
western and central Montana.
...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the CONUS on
Tuesday. A strong upper trough will move into New England during the
evening/overnight along with a surface cold front. Additional
moderate mid-level flow will be present over the northern Rockies
along with weaker shortwave troughs moving through the region.
...New England...
Strong northwesterly flow aloft will be present at the start of the
forecast period. Models suggest that a subtle perturbation may be
moving through the region early in the day. Some convection may be
associated with this feature, though the expectation is that this
activity will be weakening with time. Any cloud cover from this
activity would delay surface heating in some areas. Nevertheless,
heating/moistening ahead of the cold front appears more than
sufficient for severe storm development by late afternoon into the
evening. Initial development will likely occur in southern Quebec
along the front and move into New England. The strongest forcing for
ascent within the region will also be after 03Z. 2500-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE near the Canadian border during the late afternoon with
around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE persisting into early evening across parts
of New England. Linear forcing along the cold front will not be
overly strong and large component of the 50+ kt of effective shear
will be perpendicular to this boundary. Supercell structures will be
favored, though bowing structures may also develop due to storm
interactions or locally greater linear forcing. Large hail,
including potential for 2+ in. with supercells, is possible.
Severe/damaging winds are also expected. Bowing segments that
develop will have potential for significant wind gusts. Low-level
hodographs will also support a threat for a few tornadoes. A strong
tornado is possible, but will be conditional on a discrete supercell
persisting into the early evening.
...Montana...
Development of a surface low in parts of eastern Montana/Wyoming
will draw low-level moisture westward along a stalled surface
boundary. Additionally, mid-level moisture will increase from the
southwest around the western edge of the upper-level ridge. This,
coupled with a shortwave trough during the late afternoon, will
promote widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms within the
higher terrain of southwest/central Montana. Around 30-35 kt of
effective shear will promote a mix of marginal supercells and linear
segments. Moisture will be more modest with western extent and
outflow production will be more efficient. This should generally
lead to more linear modes quickly. Buoyancy will also be modest
(750-1250 J/kg MUCAPE) given 50s F dewpoints into western Montana.
North of the surface low there will likely be a belt of greater
surface moisture (low 60s F, potentially) that advects into the
higher terrain of central Montana. Here, a couple of supercells
could develop and be surface based. This could also be an area where
linear structures could better organize due to more moist inflow. At
present time, this more favorable environment appears too spatially
limited for an increase in wind/hail probabilities.
..Wendt.. 07/13/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...Morning Update...
00z soundings across the Great Basin depict deep inverted-V
profiles, strong mid-level flow (in the exception of GJT), and less
than 0.8" PWAT values. The 00z sounding from REV portrays a PWAT of
0.82" (up to 0.99" at 12z), very strong LCL-EL winds, and a residual
dry boundary layer. These meteorological conditions amid warm
daytime temperatures and resultant instability will favor
evaporation and limit precipitation efficiency, thus maintaining
current isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Late this evening into
the overnight hours, some convection-allowing models are indicating
a few thundershowers are possible along the CA Southern Coast Ranges
into parts of the Bay area. Constrained probabilities (less than
10%) of thunderstorm development, minimal instability, and forecast
PWATs greater than 1" preclude IsoDryT highlights; however, a
lightning ignition cannot be ruled out where mixed dry fuels exist.
The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to
translate across the Canadian prairie today, with much of the U.S.
dominated by strong ridging. Monsoonal moisture transported
northward along the western periphery of this ridge will be
responsible for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across much of
the Intermountain West, and east-southeasterly flow ahead of a
surface low developing in the northern High Plains will bring dry
and breezy conditions to eastern Wyoming into portions of northern
Colorado and western South Dakota. Dry and breezy conditions are
also forecast for far northern Minnesota.
...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and far northern
Colorado...
East-southeasterly surface winds across northern Colorado into
eastern Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota are forecast to
be 15-20 MPH. Combined with relative humidity of 10-15%, and
critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th annual
percentile), at least Elevated fire-weather concerns can be expected
this afternoon.
...Far Northern Minnesota...
The expectation is for 10-15 mph southwesterly winds (gusts up to 25
mph) within a modestly dry boundary layer with 20-30% relative
humidity across northern Minnesota. Fuels guidance indicates
receptiveness to wildfire ignition and spread, with ERCs above the
95th annual percentile across the region and both the ignition and
spread component indices nearly maxed out. Given the receptiveness
of fuels, even the more modest combination of wind and relative
humidity will result in at least Elevated fire-weather concerns this
afternoon.
...Southwestern Montana into northern Wyoming and portions of
eastern Idaho...
Along the northwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge, column
precipitable water content will largely be in the range of 0.5-0.75
inches with strong signal for thunder in the HREF/REFS calibrated
thunder probabilities. Proximity soundings in southwestern Montana
show deep inverted-V profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess
of 30-35 kts, suggesting limited precipitation efficiency. Given the
critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th-98th annual
percentiles), lightning-based ignitions are possible.
...Northeastern California into northwestern Nevada and far southern
Oregon...
While thunderstorm activity is forecast, this should be much more of
a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. However, deep inverted-V
profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess of 30 kts should
limit overall precipitation efficiency, even with higher
precipitable water content closer to 1 inch. With fuels guidance
showing ERCs at or above the 80th annual percentile, lightning-based
ignitions are possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...Morning Update...
00z soundings across the Great Basin depict deep inverted-V
profiles, strong mid-level flow (in the exception of GJT), and less
than 0.8" PWAT values. The 00z sounding from REV portrays a PWAT of
0.82" (up to 0.99" at 12z), very strong LCL-EL winds, and a residual
dry boundary layer. These meteorological conditions amid warm
daytime temperatures and resultant instability will favor
evaporation and limit precipitation efficiency, thus maintaining
current isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Late this evening into
the overnight hours, some convection-allowing models are indicating
a few thundershowers are possible along the CA Southern Coast Ranges
into parts of the Bay area. Constrained probabilities (less than
10%) of thunderstorm development, minimal instability, and forecast
PWATs greater than 1" preclude IsoDryT highlights; however, a
lightning ignition cannot be ruled out where mixed dry fuels exist.
The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the previous
discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/13/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to
translate across the Canadian prairie today, with much of the U.S.
dominated by strong ridging. Monsoonal moisture transported
northward along the western periphery of this ridge will be
responsible for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across much of
the Intermountain West, and east-southeasterly flow ahead of a
surface low developing in the northern High Plains will bring dry
and breezy conditions to eastern Wyoming into portions of northern
Colorado and western South Dakota. Dry and breezy conditions are
also forecast for far northern Minnesota.
...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and far northern
Colorado...
East-southeasterly surface winds across northern Colorado into
eastern Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota are forecast to
be 15-20 MPH. Combined with relative humidity of 10-15%, and
critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th annual
percentile), at least Elevated fire-weather concerns can be expected
this afternoon.
...Far Northern Minnesota...
The expectation is for 10-15 mph southwesterly winds (gusts up to 25
mph) within a modestly dry boundary layer with 20-30% relative
humidity across northern Minnesota. Fuels guidance indicates
receptiveness to wildfire ignition and spread, with ERCs above the
95th annual percentile across the region and both the ignition and
spread component indices nearly maxed out. Given the receptiveness
of fuels, even the more modest combination of wind and relative
humidity will result in at least Elevated fire-weather concerns this
afternoon.
...Southwestern Montana into northern Wyoming and portions of
eastern Idaho...
Along the northwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge, column
precipitable water content will largely be in the range of 0.5-0.75
inches with strong signal for thunder in the HREF/REFS calibrated
thunder probabilities. Proximity soundings in southwestern Montana
show deep inverted-V profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess
of 30-35 kts, suggesting limited precipitation efficiency. Given the
critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th-98th annual
percentiles), lightning-based ignitions are possible.
...Northeastern California into northwestern Nevada and far southern
Oregon...
While thunderstorm activity is forecast, this should be much more of
a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. However, deep inverted-V
profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess of 30 kts should
limit overall precipitation efficiency, even with higher
precipitable water content closer to 1 inch. With fuels guidance
showing ERCs at or above the 80th annual percentile, lightning-based
ignitions are possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND PORTIONS OF ARIZONA....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated strong to severe winds may occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the Southeast and Montana.
An expansive upper ridge over the northern Plains will dominate the
weather across the US today, with only small areas of risk of severe
storms.
...FL/GA...
A hot and humid air mass is present today over the FL Peninsula into
parts of southeast GA/SC. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are
expected to form in this regime, with the strongest cells capable of
gusty/damaging winds.
...AZ...
Widespread convection yesterday has resulted in a moist boundary
layer across southern AZ, where strong heating will occur again
today. This will lead to another round of scattered storms moving
off the higher terrain of eastern AZ and speading westward into the
Deserts. A few of the storms may produce gusty/damaging winds.
...MT...
Morning CAM solutions are consistent on the forecast of a cluster of
high-based thunderstorms forming over the mountains of southern MT
and tracking north-northeastward during the evening. Forecast
soundings would support some risk of a gusty/damaging winds in these
storms.
..Hart/Barnes.. 07/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND PORTIONS OF ARIZONA....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated strong to severe winds may occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the Southeast and Montana.
An expansive upper ridge over the northern Plains will dominate the
weather across the US today, with only small areas of risk of severe
storms.
...FL/GA...
A hot and humid air mass is present today over the FL Peninsula into
parts of southeast GA/SC. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are
expected to form in this regime, with the strongest cells capable of
gusty/damaging winds.
...AZ...
Widespread convection yesterday has resulted in a moist boundary
layer across southern AZ, where strong heating will occur again
today. This will lead to another round of scattered storms moving
off the higher terrain of eastern AZ and speading westward into the
Deserts. A few of the storms may produce gusty/damaging winds.
...MT...
Morning CAM solutions are consistent on the forecast of a cluster of
high-based thunderstorms forming over the mountains of southern MT
and tracking north-northeastward during the evening. Forecast
soundings would support some risk of a gusty/damaging winds in these
storms.
..Hart/Barnes.. 07/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated strong to severe winds may occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the Southeast and Montana.
...Southeast...
A very weak mid-level trough will persist over the Deep South and
Carolinas today, with modest westerly flow. Although rich low-level
moisture remains present across these areas, multiple days of
convective overturning has resulted in rather poor lapse rates
aloft. This, along with persistent cloudiness, should limit to some
degree how much instability will develop this afternoon with
filtered daytime heating. Deep-layer shear will also remain weak,
and thunderstorms should generally be disorganized. Some loose
clustering may eventually occur with convection spreading eastward
from the central Gulf Coast towards the FL Peninsula, where
low-level lapse rates should become steepened by peak afternoon
heating. Isolated damaging winds appear possible with the strongest
cores from parts of FL into eastern GA and SC ahead of the weak
mid-level trough.
...Montana...
Mid/upper-level ridging will extend from the southern/central
Rockies to the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through the period,
with a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow over
western/central MT. High-based thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon across parts of southwest into central MT amid a deeply
mixed boundary layer. While low-level moisture and related
instability are both expected to remain limited, some risk for
occasional strong to severe gusts may accompany this convection as
it spreads northward through the early evening before weakening.
...Arizona...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are still ongoing this morning
across parts of southern AZ. While mid-level east-southeasterly flow
will persist today across much of AZ on the southern periphery of
prominent upper ridging, it remains unclear how much destabilization
will occur in the wake of this morning's convection. Whether
convection will be able to spread westward off the higher terrain of
southeast AZ and the Mogollon Rim is also uncertain. Have therefore
not included low severe wind probabilities with this update.
..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/13/2026
Read more
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated strong to severe winds may occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the Southeast and Montana.
...Southeast...
A very weak mid-level trough will persist over the Deep South and
Carolinas today, with modest westerly flow. Although rich low-level
moisture remains present across these areas, multiple days of
convective overturning has resulted in rather poor lapse rates
aloft. This, along with persistent cloudiness, should limit to some
degree how much instability will develop this afternoon with
filtered daytime heating. Deep-layer shear will also remain weak,
and thunderstorms should generally be disorganized. Some loose
clustering may eventually occur with convection spreading eastward
from the central Gulf Coast towards the FL Peninsula, where
low-level lapse rates should become steepened by peak afternoon
heating. Isolated damaging winds appear possible with the strongest
cores from parts of FL into eastern GA and SC ahead of the weak
mid-level trough.
...Montana...
Mid/upper-level ridging will extend from the southern/central
Rockies to the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through the period,
with a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow over
western/central MT. High-based thunderstorms may develop this
afternoon across parts of southwest into central MT amid a deeply
mixed boundary layer. While low-level moisture and related
instability are both expected to remain limited, some risk for
occasional strong to severe gusts may accompany this convection as
it spreads northward through the early evening before weakening.
...Arizona...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are still ongoing this morning
across parts of southern AZ. While mid-level east-southeasterly flow
will persist today across much of AZ on the southern periphery of
prominent upper ridging, it remains unclear how much destabilization
will occur in the wake of this morning's convection. Whether
convection will be able to spread westward off the higher terrain of
southeast AZ and the Mogollon Rim is also uncertain. Have therefore
not included low severe wind probabilities with this update.
..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/13/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central
US ridge will once again build westward in response to the
development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the
forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and
between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this
transition.
At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be
pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough
that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the
past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west,
bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of
the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance
was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the
Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now
push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North
Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the
potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the
Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington
D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is
102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the
50Fs.
Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface
boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather
environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are
removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities
may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that
the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality
low-level moisture is able to return sooner.
That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in
response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great
Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect
northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This
increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will
allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps
locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.
This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for
thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging
mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing,
magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the
ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint
where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added.
As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded
troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed
somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest
southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central
US ridge will once again build westward in response to the
development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the
forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and
between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this
transition.
At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be
pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough
that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the
past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west,
bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of
the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance
was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the
Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now
push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North
Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the
potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the
Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington
D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is
102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the
50Fs.
Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface
boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather
environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are
removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities
may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that
the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality
low-level moisture is able to return sooner.
That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in
response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great
Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect
northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This
increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will
allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps
locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.
This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for
thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging
mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing,
magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the
ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint
where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added.
As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded
troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed
somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest
southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
All ensemble guidance suites are in broad agreement that the central
US ridge will once again build westward in response to the
development of a eastern North America long-wave trough during the
forecast period. However, significant differences exist within and
between ensembles regarding the timing and exact nature of this
transition.
At the start of the forecast period, a frontal boundary will be
pushing south and west in the wake of a strong short-wave trough
that moved across New England in the prior days. The trend over the
past 48 hours is for this front to push farther south and west,
bringing a continental dry airmass into New England and portions of
the Mid-Atlantic. For example, several days ago ensemble guidance
was in good agreement that the front would be draped across the
Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Many, but not all, of the recent runs now
push the front south into southern Virginia and northern North
Carolina. This results in significant uncertainty regarding the
potential severe weather environment on Friday (Day 5) across the
Mid-Atlantic. For example, the GEFS mean temperature for Washington
D.C. is 93F on Friday afternoon, while the EPS mean temperature is
102F. However, both ensembles have dewpoint temperatures in the
50Fs.
Given the increasing uncertainty as to the location of the surface
boundary on Friday and the overall quality of the severe weather
environment, unconditional 15% severe probabilities for Friday are
removed with this forecast. It is possible that severe probabilities
may be reintroduced in later outlooks should it become apparent that
the surface boundary washes out earlier than expected and quality
low-level moisture is able to return sooner.
That said, the front should begin to dissipate by Saturday in
response to a mid-level trough digging southeast across the Great
Lakes. This will allow rich boundary-layer moisture to advect
northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. This
increase in boundary-layer moisture and strong diurnal heating will
allow for afternoon MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, perhaps
locally higher on Saturday and into Sunday.
This unstable and vertically sheared environment will be ripe for
thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm development ahead of any digging
mid-level trough. However, as alluded to previously, the timing,
magnitude, and number of these troughs is highly variable within the
ensemble guidance, leading to too little confidence to pinpoint
where and when unconditional severe probabilities should be added.
As confidence in the timing, track, and strength of these embedded
troughs becomes clear, severe probabilities will likely be needed
somewhere across the region stretching from the Upper Midwest
southeast into the Mid-Atlantic for one or more days.
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the US on
Wednesday.
... Synopsis ...
A CONUS-wide mid-level ridge will remain entrenched across the
central US, with a closed mid-level low located on either side of it
-- one off the Pacific Northwest coast and the other across eastern
Canada. A short-wave trough moving through the enhanced mid-level
flow will impinge upon the northwest periphery of the US ridge,
halting its westward expansion. On the eastern side, a strong
short-wave trough will continue digging southeast across New
England, helping to carve out a long wave trough across eastern
Canada and the northeastern US. This in turn will suppress the US
ridge southward along the East Coast, resulting in a
northwest-to-southeast ridge axis across the eastern US.
At the surface, a cold front will push south and westward across
southern New England toward the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. To the
north of this boundary, seasonably cool and dry conditions will
prevail, while along and south of this boundary, hot and humid
conditions continue.
... Western and Central Montana ...
Continued enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will prevail across
the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Embedded within this flow will be
subtle vorticity/speed maxima. Large-scale ascent associated with
these features, combined with diurnal heating will support scattered
thunderstorms along the higher terrain of southwest Montana. After
several days of repeated convection across Montana and in the
mid-level lapse-rate source region upstream, uncertainty remains as
to the number and intensity of thunderstorms that do develop. Should
vigorous convection develop, the overall strength of the mid-level
flow when coupled with steep lapse rates would support sporadic
strong thunderstorm winds.
..Marsh.. 07/13/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the US on
Wednesday.
... Synopsis ...
A CONUS-wide mid-level ridge will remain entrenched across the
central US, with a closed mid-level low located on either side of it
-- one off the Pacific Northwest coast and the other across eastern
Canada. A short-wave trough moving through the enhanced mid-level
flow will impinge upon the northwest periphery of the US ridge,
halting its westward expansion. On the eastern side, a strong
short-wave trough will continue digging southeast across New
England, helping to carve out a long wave trough across eastern
Canada and the northeastern US. This in turn will suppress the US
ridge southward along the East Coast, resulting in a
northwest-to-southeast ridge axis across the eastern US.
At the surface, a cold front will push south and westward across
southern New England toward the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. To the
north of this boundary, seasonably cool and dry conditions will
prevail, while along and south of this boundary, hot and humid
conditions continue.
... Western and Central Montana ...
Continued enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will prevail across
the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Embedded within this flow will be
subtle vorticity/speed maxima. Large-scale ascent associated with
these features, combined with diurnal heating will support scattered
thunderstorms along the higher terrain of southwest Montana. After
several days of repeated convection across Montana and in the
mid-level lapse-rate source region upstream, uncertainty remains as
to the number and intensity of thunderstorms that do develop. Should
vigorous convection develop, the overall strength of the mid-level
flow when coupled with steep lapse rates would support sporadic
strong thunderstorm winds.
..Marsh.. 07/13/2026
Read more
