Storm Prediction Center

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Wednesday. ... Synopsis ... A CONUS-wide mid-level ridge will remain entrenched across the central US, with a closed mid-level low located on either side of it -- one off the Pacific Northwest coast and the other across eastern Canada. A short-wave trough moving through the enhanced mid-level flow will impinge upon the northwest periphery of the US ridge, halting its westward expansion. On the eastern side, a strong short-wave trough will continue digging southeast across New England, helping to carve out a long wave trough across eastern Canada and the northeastern US. This in turn will suppress the US ridge southward along the East Coast, resulting in a northwest-to-southeast ridge axis across the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front will push south and westward across southern New England toward the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, seasonably cool and dry conditions will prevail, while along and south of this boundary, hot and humid conditions continue. ... Western and Central Montana ... Continued enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will prevail across the northern Rockies on Wednesday. Embedded within this flow will be subtle vorticity/speed maxima. Large-scale ascent associated with these features, combined with diurnal heating will support scattered thunderstorms along the higher terrain of southwest Montana. After several days of repeated convection across Montana and in the mid-level lapse-rate source region upstream, uncertainty remains as to the number and intensity of thunderstorms that do develop. Should vigorous convection develop, the overall strength of the mid-level flow when coupled with steep lapse rates would support sporadic strong thunderstorm winds. ..Marsh.. 07/13/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Much of the Continental US will experience strong mid-level ridging on Tuesday. Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the western periphery of the ridge will result in isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest, and dry and breezy conditions across the northern High Plains will result in Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northern High Plains... In response to a developing surface low in eastern Montana, east-southeasterly winds of 15-20 MPH are anticipated across the northern High Plains into central Wyoming. Combined with widespread relative humidity near 10-15% and critically receptive fuels, at least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast for Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern and Central Oregon into portions of northeastern California and northwestern Nevada... Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the periphery of the mid-level ridge will bring more isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. HREF/REFS calibrated thunder guidance shows convective activity occurring with precipitable water content of 0.75-1.0", suggesting a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. However, forecast sounding profiles show deep inverted-Vs and LCL-EL mean wind speeds of 25-30 kts indicate limited precipitation efficiency. Given fuels guidance showing ERCs in the 80th-90th annual percentile range, lightning-based ignitions will be possible. ..Halbert.. 07/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Much of the Continental US will experience strong mid-level ridging on Tuesday. Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the western periphery of the ridge will result in isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest, and dry and breezy conditions across the northern High Plains will result in Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northern High Plains... In response to a developing surface low in eastern Montana, east-southeasterly winds of 15-20 MPH are anticipated across the northern High Plains into central Wyoming. Combined with widespread relative humidity near 10-15% and critically receptive fuels, at least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast for Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern and Central Oregon into portions of northeastern California and northwestern Nevada... Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the periphery of the mid-level ridge will bring more isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. HREF/REFS calibrated thunder guidance shows convective activity occurring with precipitable water content of 0.75-1.0", suggesting a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. However, forecast sounding profiles show deep inverted-Vs and LCL-EL mean wind speeds of 25-30 kts indicate limited precipitation efficiency. Given fuels guidance showing ERCs in the 80th-90th annual percentile range, lightning-based ignitions will be possible. ..Halbert.. 07/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Much of the Continental US will experience strong mid-level ridging on Tuesday. Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the western periphery of the ridge will result in isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of the Pacific Northwest, and dry and breezy conditions across the northern High Plains will result in Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northern High Plains... In response to a developing surface low in eastern Montana, east-southeasterly winds of 15-20 MPH are anticipated across the northern High Plains into central Wyoming. Combined with widespread relative humidity near 10-15% and critically receptive fuels, at least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast for Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern and Central Oregon into portions of northeastern California and northwestern Nevada... Northward transport of monsoonal moisture along the periphery of the mid-level ridge will bring more isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. HREF/REFS calibrated thunder guidance shows convective activity occurring with precipitable water content of 0.75-1.0", suggesting a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. However, forecast sounding profiles show deep inverted-Vs and LCL-EL mean wind speeds of 25-30 kts indicate limited precipitation efficiency. Given fuels guidance showing ERCs in the 80th-90th annual percentile range, lightning-based ignitions will be possible. ..Halbert.. 07/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to translate across the Canadian prairie today, with much of the U.S. dominated by strong ridging. Monsoonal moisture transported northward along the western periphery of this ridge will be responsible for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West, and east-southeasterly flow ahead of a surface low developing in the northern High Plains will bring dry and breezy conditions to eastern Wyoming into portions of northern Colorado and western South Dakota. Dry and breezy conditions are also forecast for far northern Minnesota. ...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and far northern Colorado... East-southeasterly surface winds across northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota are forecast to be 15-20 MPH. Combined with relative humidity of 10-15%, and critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th annual percentile), at least Elevated fire-weather concerns can be expected this afternoon. ...Far Northern Minnesota... The expectation is for 10-15 mph southwesterly winds (gusts up to 25 mph) within a modestly dry boundary layer with 20-30% relative humidity across northern Minnesota. Fuels guidance indicates receptiveness to wildfire ignition and spread, with ERCs above the 95th annual percentile across the region and both the ignition and spread component indices nearly maxed out. Given the receptiveness of fuels, even the more modest combination of wind and relative humidity will result in at least Elevated fire-weather concerns this afternoon. ...Southwestern Montana into northern Wyoming and portions of eastern Idaho... Along the northwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge, column precipitable water content will largely be in the range of 0.5-0.75 inches with strong signal for thunder in the HREF/REFS calibrated thunder probabilities. Proximity soundings in southwestern Montana show deep inverted-V profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess of 30-35 kts, suggesting limited precipitation efficiency. Given the critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th-98th annual percentiles), lightning-based ignitions are possible. ...Northeastern California into northwestern Nevada and far southern Oregon... While thunderstorm activity is forecast, this should be much more of a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. However, deep inverted-V profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess of 30 kts should limit overall precipitation efficiency, even with higher precipitable water content closer to 1 inch. With fuels guidance showing ERCs at or above the 80th annual percentile, lightning-based ignitions are possible. ..Halbert.. 07/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to translate across the Canadian prairie today, with much of the U.S. dominated by strong ridging. Monsoonal moisture transported northward along the western periphery of this ridge will be responsible for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West, and east-southeasterly flow ahead of a surface low developing in the northern High Plains will bring dry and breezy conditions to eastern Wyoming into portions of northern Colorado and western South Dakota. Dry and breezy conditions are also forecast for far northern Minnesota. ...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and far northern Colorado... East-southeasterly surface winds across northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota are forecast to be 15-20 MPH. Combined with relative humidity of 10-15%, and critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th annual percentile), at least Elevated fire-weather concerns can be expected this afternoon. ...Far Northern Minnesota... The expectation is for 10-15 mph southwesterly winds (gusts up to 25 mph) within a modestly dry boundary layer with 20-30% relative humidity across northern Minnesota. Fuels guidance indicates receptiveness to wildfire ignition and spread, with ERCs above the 95th annual percentile across the region and both the ignition and spread component indices nearly maxed out. Given the receptiveness of fuels, even the more modest combination of wind and relative humidity will result in at least Elevated fire-weather concerns this afternoon. ...Southwestern Montana into northern Wyoming and portions of eastern Idaho... Along the northwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge, column precipitable water content will largely be in the range of 0.5-0.75 inches with strong signal for thunder in the HREF/REFS calibrated thunder probabilities. Proximity soundings in southwestern Montana show deep inverted-V profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess of 30-35 kts, suggesting limited precipitation efficiency. Given the critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th-98th annual percentiles), lightning-based ignitions are possible. ...Northeastern California into northwestern Nevada and far southern Oregon... While thunderstorm activity is forecast, this should be much more of a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. However, deep inverted-V profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess of 30 kts should limit overall precipitation efficiency, even with higher precipitable water content closer to 1 inch. With fuels guidance showing ERCs at or above the 80th annual percentile, lightning-based ignitions are possible. ..Halbert.. 07/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to translate across the Canadian prairie today, with much of the U.S. dominated by strong ridging. Monsoonal moisture transported northward along the western periphery of this ridge will be responsible for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West, and east-southeasterly flow ahead of a surface low developing in the northern High Plains will bring dry and breezy conditions to eastern Wyoming into portions of northern Colorado and western South Dakota. Dry and breezy conditions are also forecast for far northern Minnesota. ...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and far northern Colorado... East-southeasterly surface winds across northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota are forecast to be 15-20 MPH. Combined with relative humidity of 10-15%, and critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th annual percentile), at least Elevated fire-weather concerns can be expected this afternoon. ...Far Northern Minnesota... The expectation is for 10-15 mph southwesterly winds (gusts up to 25 mph) within a modestly dry boundary layer with 20-30% relative humidity across northern Minnesota. Fuels guidance indicates receptiveness to wildfire ignition and spread, with ERCs above the 95th annual percentile across the region and both the ignition and spread component indices nearly maxed out. Given the receptiveness of fuels, even the more modest combination of wind and relative humidity will result in at least Elevated fire-weather concerns this afternoon. ...Southwestern Montana into northern Wyoming and portions of eastern Idaho... Along the northwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge, column precipitable water content will largely be in the range of 0.5-0.75 inches with strong signal for thunder in the HREF/REFS calibrated thunder probabilities. Proximity soundings in southwestern Montana show deep inverted-V profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess of 30-35 kts, suggesting limited precipitation efficiency. Given the critically receptive fuels (ERCs exceeding the 95th-98th annual percentiles), lightning-based ignitions are possible. ...Northeastern California into northwestern Nevada and far southern Oregon... While thunderstorm activity is forecast, this should be much more of a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. However, deep inverted-V profiles and LCL-EL mean wind speeds in excess of 30 kts should limit overall precipitation efficiency, even with higher precipitable water content closer to 1 inch. With fuels guidance showing ERCs at or above the 80th annual percentile, lightning-based ignitions are possible. ..Halbert.. 07/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana. ... Synopsis ... The expansive mid-level ridge centered across the north-central United States will begin to quickly retrograde on Tuesday in response to a strong short-wave trough digging southeast across the Northeast. Enhanced mid-level flow will surround the center of this mid-level ridge, with multiple vorticity/speed maxima moving through this enhanced flow. ... New England ... A strong short-wave trough will move across New England during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of this trough, southwesterly low-level flow will allow temperatures to warm into the 80Fs and 90Fs across northern New England. Additionally, the orientation of the low-level flow will allow rich boundary layer moisture to advect northeastward, through the St. Lawrence Valley, and into northern New England. (HREF ensemble mean dewpoints are greater than 70F across northern New York into western Maine.) The combination of a warm, moist boundary layer and modest mid-level lapse rates should yield strong instability by the afternoon, with HREF probabilities of exceeding 2000 J/kg MUCAPE greater than 50% across portions of the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of an approaching surface cold front during the afternoon within the St. Lawrence Valley. At the same time, vertical wind shear will be increasing throughout the day as the mid-level trough approaches. Given strong instability and effective-layer shear in excess of 50 knots by late afternoon, multiple clusters of severe storms are expected north of New England. These storms will eventually grow upscale into one or more linear clusters as they move into and across portions of New England during the late afternoon, evening, and overnight. Given the degree of instability and strength of the flow, severe thunderstorm winds are likely (some significant). Large hail will also be possible with any storms. Additionally, forecast soundings show enough low-level curvature to support a tornado threat, including a strong tornado or two, with any sustained surface-based supercell. ... Portions of Western and Central Montana ... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the northern Rockies, bringing an influx of low- and mid-level moisture compared to recent days. An embedded shortwave trough moving across the region will combine with daytime heating over the higher terrain to support widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. However, increasing cloud cover may limit these storms from fully rooting in the boundary layer. Despite this limitation, the strongest storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Marsh.. 07/13/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana. ... Synopsis ... The expansive mid-level ridge centered across the north-central United States will begin to quickly retrograde on Tuesday in response to a strong short-wave trough digging southeast across the Northeast. Enhanced mid-level flow will surround the center of this mid-level ridge, with multiple vorticity/speed maxima moving through this enhanced flow. ... New England ... A strong short-wave trough will move across New England during the evening and overnight hours. Ahead of this trough, southwesterly low-level flow will allow temperatures to warm into the 80Fs and 90Fs across northern New England. Additionally, the orientation of the low-level flow will allow rich boundary layer moisture to advect northeastward, through the St. Lawrence Valley, and into northern New England. (HREF ensemble mean dewpoints are greater than 70F across northern New York into western Maine.) The combination of a warm, moist boundary layer and modest mid-level lapse rates should yield strong instability by the afternoon, with HREF probabilities of exceeding 2000 J/kg MUCAPE greater than 50% across portions of the area. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of an approaching surface cold front during the afternoon within the St. Lawrence Valley. At the same time, vertical wind shear will be increasing throughout the day as the mid-level trough approaches. Given strong instability and effective-layer shear in excess of 50 knots by late afternoon, multiple clusters of severe storms are expected north of New England. These storms will eventually grow upscale into one or more linear clusters as they move into and across portions of New England during the late afternoon, evening, and overnight. Given the degree of instability and strength of the flow, severe thunderstorm winds are likely (some significant). Large hail will also be possible with any storms. Additionally, forecast soundings show enough low-level curvature to support a tornado threat, including a strong tornado or two, with any sustained surface-based supercell. ... Portions of Western and Central Montana ... Strong mid-level flow will persist across the northern Rockies, bringing an influx of low- and mid-level moisture compared to recent days. An embedded shortwave trough moving across the region will combine with daytime heating over the higher terrain to support widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms. However, increasing cloud cover may limit these storms from fully rooting in the boundary layer. Despite this limitation, the strongest storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Marsh.. 07/13/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND IN WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible from mid afternoon into early this evening across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and in western Montana. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard... Very moist air will be in place today from the Southeast eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Surface dewpoints across Georgia and South Carolina will be mostly in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm today, moderate instability will develop across much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians and within zones of low-level convergence across the moist airmass. As instability maximizes and low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon, a few severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells. ...Western Montana... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across the northwestern U.S. At the surface, upslope flow will be located from the northern High Plains westward to the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm today, a pocket of instability will develop across western Montana adjacent to the higher terrain. Some storms that form in the northern Rockies will move northeastward toward and through this pocket of instability in the lower elevations, where SBCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg late this afternoon. The instability and very steep low to mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/13/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND IN WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible from mid afternoon into early this evening across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and in western Montana. ...Southern Atlantic Seaboard... Very moist air will be in place today from the Southeast eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Surface dewpoints across Georgia and South Carolina will be mostly in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm today, moderate instability will develop across much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians and within zones of low-level convergence across the moist airmass. As instability maximizes and low-level lapse rates steepen this afternoon, a few severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells. ...Western Montana... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across the northwestern U.S. At the surface, upslope flow will be located from the northern High Plains westward to the northern Rockies. As surface temperatures warm today, a pocket of instability will develop across western Montana adjacent to the higher terrain. Some storms that form in the northern Rockies will move northeastward toward and through this pocket of instability in the lower elevations, where SBCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg late this afternoon. The instability and very steep low to mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/13/2026 Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW PRC TO 30 NE PHX TO 45 NNW TUS TO 40 WSW TUS TO 125 SW TUS. ..LYONS..07/13/26 ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...FGZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC013-019-025-130240- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MARICOPA PIMA YAVAPAI THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 487 SEVERE TSTM AZ 122200Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and south central Arizona * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Storms clusters are forming over the Mogollon Rim and the mountains in southeast Arizona, and the storms are expected to spread westward through late evening. The storm environment favors severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph as the primary threat as storms propagate into the lower deserts, especially where outflow mergers occur. Otherwise, the strongest initial cells could also produce isolated large hail near 1 inch diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Phoenix AZ to 60 miles south southwest of Tucson AZ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 485...WW 486... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 08020. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1610 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of northeastern and eastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130027Z - 130230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...High-based showers and thunderstorms will be capable of sporadic severe gusts this evening, but a WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 0025 UTC, radar imagery shows high-based showers and storms have developed over parts of northern and eastern MT. Very hot surface temperatures (110+ F) are supporting very deep surface mixed layer depths of the order of 3-5 km. Within this deep dry boundary layer, dry adiabatic lapse rates and strong evaporation potential exist, which is supporting stronger downdrafts and dry microburst potential. Several mesonet stations have shown outflow gusts of45-55 kt so far. This should continue this evening, given the modest buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) atop the deep and dry inverted v profiles. Broader storm organization potential appears limited however, owing to relatively modest buoyancy and dryness in the sub-cloud layer. While some clustering of stronger showers and outflow could develop as they move north toward the Canadian border where buoyancy is larger, a WW appears unlikely given the lack of more coherent convective organization. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 07/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47351203 48931016 49070973 49040499 47930620 47100805 46491028 46251125 46591184 47351203 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and in southern Arizona. Severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the western Great Lakes. A few strong gusts will also be possible in northeast Montana, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern North Carolina/South Carolina/Far Eastern Georgia... A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. At the surface, a cold front is located over southern North Carolina. To the south of the front, a very moist air is in place with dewpoints in the 70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of this airmass from southern North Carolina into eastern Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWPs at Wilmington, North Carolina and Colubmia, South Carolina have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range. This environment may support a threat for severe wind gusts for another hour early this evening. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A very moist airmass is in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. Over much of the region, the RAP has moderate instability, with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from north-central Texas eastward into southern Alabama. Along this corridor, the instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat for isolated severe gusts for another hour or two. ...Southern Arizona... At the surface, a sufficiently moist airmass is in place over southern and central Arizona. In this area, the RAP has an axis of moderate instability analyzed with SBCAPE estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing just to the west of the instability axis, and these storms will continue to move westward across southern and western Arizona this evening. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level lapse rate will continue to support a potential for severe wind gusts...see MCD 1609. ...Western Great Lakes... North-northwesterly mid-level flow is located over the western Great Lakes, where a moist airmass is present. Surface dewpoints are in the 60s and lower 70s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing further north over southern Ontario. One of these cells could remain intact and move southward across Lake Superior into Upper Michigan this evening. In that case, the instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear would support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail. ...Northern Montana... Southwest mid-level flow is in place over the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a cold front is located over central and northeast Montana, where isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. Near and ahead of the front in northeast Montana, the RAP is analyzing moderate instability. Thunderstorms that move in and toward the stronger instability over the next couple of hours, may produce isolated severe wind gusts...see MCD 1610. ..Broyles.. 07/13/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and in southern Arizona. Severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the western Great Lakes. A few strong gusts will also be possible in northeast Montana, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern North Carolina/South Carolina/Far Eastern Georgia... A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. At the surface, a cold front is located over southern North Carolina. To the south of the front, a very moist air is in place with dewpoints in the 70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of this airmass from southern North Carolina into eastern Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWPs at Wilmington, North Carolina and Colubmia, South Carolina have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range. This environment may support a threat for severe wind gusts for another hour early this evening. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A very moist airmass is in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. Over much of the region, the RAP has moderate instability, with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from north-central Texas eastward into southern Alabama. Along this corridor, the instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat for isolated severe gusts for another hour or two. ...Southern Arizona... At the surface, a sufficiently moist airmass is in place over southern and central Arizona. In this area, the RAP has an axis of moderate instability analyzed with SBCAPE estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing just to the west of the instability axis, and these storms will continue to move westward across southern and western Arizona this evening. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level lapse rate will continue to support a potential for severe wind gusts...see MCD 1609. ...Western Great Lakes... North-northwesterly mid-level flow is located over the western Great Lakes, where a moist airmass is present. Surface dewpoints are in the 60s and lower 70s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing further north over southern Ontario. One of these cells could remain intact and move southward across Lake Superior into Upper Michigan this evening. In that case, the instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear would support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail. ...Northern Montana... Southwest mid-level flow is in place over the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a cold front is located over central and northeast Montana, where isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. Near and ahead of the front in northeast Montana, the RAP is analyzing moderate instability. Thunderstorms that move in and toward the stronger instability over the next couple of hours, may produce isolated severe wind gusts...see MCD 1610. ..Broyles.. 07/13/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and in southern Arizona. Severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the western Great Lakes. A few strong gusts will also be possible in northeast Montana, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern North Carolina/South Carolina/Far Eastern Georgia... A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. At the surface, a cold front is located over southern North Carolina. To the south of the front, a very moist air is in place with dewpoints in the 70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of this airmass from southern North Carolina into eastern Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWPs at Wilmington, North Carolina and Colubmia, South Carolina have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range. This environment may support a threat for severe wind gusts for another hour early this evening. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A very moist airmass is in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. Over much of the region, the RAP has moderate instability, with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from north-central Texas eastward into southern Alabama. Along this corridor, the instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat for isolated severe gusts for another hour or two. ...Southern Arizona... At the surface, a sufficiently moist airmass is in place over southern and central Arizona. In this area, the RAP has an axis of moderate instability analyzed with SBCAPE estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing just to the west of the instability axis, and these storms will continue to move westward across southern and western Arizona this evening. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level lapse rate will continue to support a potential for severe wind gusts...see MCD 1609. ...Western Great Lakes... North-northwesterly mid-level flow is located over the western Great Lakes, where a moist airmass is present. Surface dewpoints are in the 60s and lower 70s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing further north over southern Ontario. One of these cells could remain intact and move southward across Lake Superior into Upper Michigan this evening. In that case, the instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear would support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail. ...Northern Montana... Southwest mid-level flow is in place over the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a cold front is located over central and northeast Montana, where isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. Near and ahead of the front in northeast Montana, the RAP is analyzing moderate instability. Thunderstorms that move in and toward the stronger instability over the next couple of hours, may produce isolated severe wind gusts...see MCD 1610. ..Broyles.. 07/13/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and in southern Arizona. Severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the western Great Lakes. A few strong gusts will also be possible in northeast Montana, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern North Carolina/South Carolina/Far Eastern Georgia... A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. At the surface, a cold front is located over southern North Carolina. To the south of the front, a very moist air is in place with dewpoints in the 70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of this airmass from southern North Carolina into eastern Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWPs at Wilmington, North Carolina and Colubmia, South Carolina have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range. This environment may support a threat for severe wind gusts for another hour early this evening. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A very moist airmass is in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. Over much of the region, the RAP has moderate instability, with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from north-central Texas eastward into southern Alabama. Along this corridor, the instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat for isolated severe gusts for another hour or two. ...Southern Arizona... At the surface, a sufficiently moist airmass is in place over southern and central Arizona. In this area, the RAP has an axis of moderate instability analyzed with SBCAPE estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing just to the west of the instability axis, and these storms will continue to move westward across southern and western Arizona this evening. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level lapse rate will continue to support a potential for severe wind gusts...see MCD 1609. ...Western Great Lakes... North-northwesterly mid-level flow is located over the western Great Lakes, where a moist airmass is present. Surface dewpoints are in the 60s and lower 70s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing further north over southern Ontario. One of these cells could remain intact and move southward across Lake Superior into Upper Michigan this evening. In that case, the instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear would support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail. ...Northern Montana... Southwest mid-level flow is in place over the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a cold front is located over central and northeast Montana, where isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. Near and ahead of the front in northeast Montana, the RAP is analyzing moderate instability. Thunderstorms that move in and toward the stronger instability over the next couple of hours, may produce isolated severe wind gusts...see MCD 1610. ..Broyles.. 07/13/2026 Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S SOW TO 10 ESE TUS TO 85 SSW TUS. ..LYONS..07/13/26 ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...FGZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC007-013-019-021-025-130140- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GILA MARICOPA PIMA PINAL YAVAPAI THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1609 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of central and southern Arizona Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487... Valid 122343Z - 130115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe wind gusts continues this evening. The highest likelihood for strong gusts is expected to remain with the southern storm cluster this evening. DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery showed several clusters of thunderstorms ongoing across portions of central and southern AZ. The environment ahead of these storms from the southern Mogollon Rim and adjacent desert remains unstable (SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) and modestly sheared. Broader storm organization appears limited and contingent upon consolidating outflow. However, very warm surface temperatures and steep lapse rates in the low and mid-levels will favor the potential for severe gusts with high-based convection over the entire watch area this evening. The stronger of the storm clusters across the lower desert has shown some tendency to cluster over the last few hours and additional development has been noted east of the PHX Metro early this evening. Recent measured severe gusts at TUS and high-res guidance suggest this cluster will maintain the highest likelihood for severe gusts over the next few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... LAT...LON 31841250 32121316 32731343 35071336 35441328 34991268 34381210 33871113 33241088 32511062 31601048 31371051 31301086 31351126 31841250 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more