MD 0904 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0904
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Areas affected...Much of central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 301928Z - 302200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase over the next few hours
before spreading east-northeastward through late afternoon into this
evening. The primary concerns will be large hail and scattered
severe gusts.
DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows an expanding
cumulus field behind the dryline in southwest KS, with isolated
towers beginning to develop within the dryline circulation. As
temperatures continue to climb into the middle 90s along/west of the
dryline, the deepening circulation should promote isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Despite
somewhat modest deep-layer shear (around 25-35 kt of effective
shear), steep lapse rates atop a moist boundary layer (upper 60s
dewpoints) are contributing to a strongly unstable warm sector --
favorable for quickly intensifying updrafts and robust downdrafts.
The early stages of convective development/intensification should be
characterized by a mix of semi-discrete supercells and organized
clusters -- both posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts.
With time, an increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected along
the dryline and expanding cold pools, which will favor a band of
upscale-growing clusters and strengthening outflow within an axis of
(~4000 J/kg MLCAPE). This evolution will promote scattered severe
wind gusts with east-northeastward extent across central KS. A
gradually strengthening nocturnal LLJ will yield expanding low-level
hodographs and some increase in tornado potential this evening.
However, the aforementioned mode evolution limits confidence in the
overall risk.
While timing of convective development and maturation is a bit
uncertain, a watch issuance is likely.
..Weinman/Hart.. 05/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 36359813 36499898 36889941 37479967 38779990 39360036
39710029 39909996 39989922 39969832 39759764 39479721
38799676 37409657 36759673 36399723 36359813
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
MD 0903 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NE/SD INTO NORTHEAST CO AND EXTREME EASTERN WY
Mesoscale Discussion 0903
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Areas affected...Parts of western NE/SD into northeast CO and
extreme eastern WY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 301914Z - 302115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The severe-storm threat is expected to increase later this
afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...A negative-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough across
the central/northern Rockies will move east-northeastward toward the
High Plains through the afternoon. Southeasterly flow will maintain
low-level moisture transport into parts of western NE/SD and
adjacent northeast CO/eastern WY, to the north of a surface low near
the CO/KS border. Modest diurnal heating and steep midlevel lapse
rates are supporting MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, with locally greater
values across southwest NE.
The approaching shortwave trough will aid in scattered storm
development from late afternoon into the evening. Initial
development is ongoing in the Black Hills vicinity, and additional
storms may develop near a surface trough extending northward from
the surface low into northeast CO and the NE/CO/WY border region.
Deep-layer flow will remain generally modest, though some
enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible near any surface
boundaries and where stronger backing of low-level flow occurs.
Organized multicells and perhaps a couple supercells may evolve with
time, with an attendant threat of large hail and localized severe
gusts. The thermodynamic environment is conditionally favorable for
very large hail (especially across parts of western NE and northeast
CO), if any supercells can be sustained. A tornado or two also
cannot be ruled out, especially where low-level vorticity is
enhanced near any surface boundaries and the DCVZ. Watch issuance is
possible for parts of the region by mid/late afternoon.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/30/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40090452 42480460 44620460 44760389 44760310 44640262
43380206 42410201 41250205 40640212 39900222 39830311
39850371 40090452
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening over
the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will
potentially be capable of severe gusts (some possibly exceeding 75
mph), large hail, and a couple of tornadoes.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with mainly
minor changes made to general thunderstorm and severe hazards
probabilities to account for observations and the latest guidance
consensus. There still appears to be a window of opportunity for
initially discrete storms, accompanied by a severe hail/isolated
tornado threat to grow upscale into one or more MCSs across southern
NE into KS this afternoon and early evening. Latest guidance and
observations continue to show 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per the
18Z DDC observed sounding) and forecast 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE via
deep-wide buoyancy profiles (per latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings)
centered over central KS. As such, swaths of severe winds (with some
gusts potentially well exceeding 75 mph) are expected before the
MCSs propagate into an increasingly stable airmass later this
evening.
..Squitieri.. 05/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/
...Central KS into OK...
A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across
the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level
jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds
in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a
zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of
central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for
severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being
the primary concern.
Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from
southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures
approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer,
promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that
favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward
through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will
remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be
possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity
should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable
environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.
...Northeast CO/NE Panhandle...
Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned
surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the
northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and
near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build
northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of
supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least
occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening over
the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will
potentially be capable of severe gusts (some possibly exceeding 75
mph), large hail, and a couple of tornadoes.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with mainly
minor changes made to general thunderstorm and severe hazards
probabilities to account for observations and the latest guidance
consensus. There still appears to be a window of opportunity for
initially discrete storms, accompanied by a severe hail/isolated
tornado threat to grow upscale into one or more MCSs across southern
NE into KS this afternoon and early evening. Latest guidance and
observations continue to show 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per the
18Z DDC observed sounding) and forecast 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE via
deep-wide buoyancy profiles (per latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings)
centered over central KS. As such, swaths of severe winds (with some
gusts potentially well exceeding 75 mph) are expected before the
MCSs propagate into an increasingly stable airmass later this
evening.
..Squitieri.. 05/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/
...Central KS into OK...
A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across
the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level
jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds
in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a
zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of
central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for
severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being
the primary concern.
Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from
southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures
approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer,
promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that
favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward
through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will
remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be
possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity
should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable
environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.
...Northeast CO/NE Panhandle...
Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned
surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the
northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and
near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build
northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of
supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least
occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening over
the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will
potentially be capable of severe gusts (some possibly exceeding 75
mph), large hail, and a couple of tornadoes.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with mainly
minor changes made to general thunderstorm and severe hazards
probabilities to account for observations and the latest guidance
consensus. There still appears to be a window of opportunity for
initially discrete storms, accompanied by a severe hail/isolated
tornado threat to grow upscale into one or more MCSs across southern
NE into KS this afternoon and early evening. Latest guidance and
observations continue to show 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per the
18Z DDC observed sounding) and forecast 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE via
deep-wide buoyancy profiles (per latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings)
centered over central KS. As such, swaths of severe winds (with some
gusts potentially well exceeding 75 mph) are expected before the
MCSs propagate into an increasingly stable airmass later this
evening.
..Squitieri.. 05/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/
...Central KS into OK...
A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across
the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level
jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds
in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a
zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of
central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for
severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being
the primary concern.
Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from
southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures
approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer,
promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that
favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward
through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will
remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be
possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity
should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable
environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.
...Northeast CO/NE Panhandle...
Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned
surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the
northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and
near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build
northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of
supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least
occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening over
the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will
potentially be capable of severe gusts (some possibly exceeding 75
mph), large hail, and a couple of tornadoes.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with mainly
minor changes made to general thunderstorm and severe hazards
probabilities to account for observations and the latest guidance
consensus. There still appears to be a window of opportunity for
initially discrete storms, accompanied by a severe hail/isolated
tornado threat to grow upscale into one or more MCSs across southern
NE into KS this afternoon and early evening. Latest guidance and
observations continue to show 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per the
18Z DDC observed sounding) and forecast 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE via
deep-wide buoyancy profiles (per latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings)
centered over central KS. As such, swaths of severe winds (with some
gusts potentially well exceeding 75 mph) are expected before the
MCSs propagate into an increasingly stable airmass later this
evening.
..Squitieri.. 05/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/
...Central KS into OK...
A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across
the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level
jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds
in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a
zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of
central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for
severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being
the primary concern.
Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from
southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures
approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer,
promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that
favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward
through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will
remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be
possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity
should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable
environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.
...Northeast CO/NE Panhandle...
Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned
surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the
northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and
near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build
northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of
supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least
occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail will
be possible Monday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, with mainly
damaging wind potential from the mid and lower Mississippi Valley
into the Tennessee Valley.
...Central Plains...
An upper low will remain situated over the northwestern states on
Monday, with various disturbances rotating into WY with glancing
influence into CO. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to
develop over southeast Co with strongly backed/easterly low-level
winds north of the low across much of NE, KS and into eastern CO.
These easterly winds will maintain 50s F dewpoints into CO, where
strong heating and upslope flow should aid development near the
Front Range during the afternoon. Large hail will be likely with the
initial cells, with steep lapse rates aloft and 35+ kt deep-layer
shear aiding supercell development. With time, cells may
cluster/increase in coverage, with a severe MCS possible into KS
with damaging winds. Any such system also be supported by a 30-40 kt
low-level jet during the evening.
...Mid to Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A northwest flow regime aloft will exist across the MS and TN
Valleys on Monday as an upper trough amplifies over the Northeast. A
very moist air mass will already be in place, with potential for
early day thunderstorms as well. Timing for severe is a bit
uncertain due to possible ongoing activity Monday morning over
southern MO and vicinity. If this occurs, the primary severe threat
would likely evolve from that activity as the outflow proceeds
southeastward across the moist/unstable air mass. Otherwise, new
activity will be possible within the zone from the Mid MS/Lower OH
Valley southeastward across the TN and lower MS Valley with daytime
heating. MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg and steepening low-level lapse rates
will favor forward propagation and widespread strong to locally
severe wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 05/30/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail will
be possible Monday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, with mainly
damaging wind potential from the mid and lower Mississippi Valley
into the Tennessee Valley.
...Central Plains...
An upper low will remain situated over the northwestern states on
Monday, with various disturbances rotating into WY with glancing
influence into CO. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to
develop over southeast Co with strongly backed/easterly low-level
winds north of the low across much of NE, KS and into eastern CO.
These easterly winds will maintain 50s F dewpoints into CO, where
strong heating and upslope flow should aid development near the
Front Range during the afternoon. Large hail will be likely with the
initial cells, with steep lapse rates aloft and 35+ kt deep-layer
shear aiding supercell development. With time, cells may
cluster/increase in coverage, with a severe MCS possible into KS
with damaging winds. Any such system also be supported by a 30-40 kt
low-level jet during the evening.
...Mid to Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A northwest flow regime aloft will exist across the MS and TN
Valleys on Monday as an upper trough amplifies over the Northeast. A
very moist air mass will already be in place, with potential for
early day thunderstorms as well. Timing for severe is a bit
uncertain due to possible ongoing activity Monday morning over
southern MO and vicinity. If this occurs, the primary severe threat
would likely evolve from that activity as the outflow proceeds
southeastward across the moist/unstable air mass. Otherwise, new
activity will be possible within the zone from the Mid MS/Lower OH
Valley southeastward across the TN and lower MS Valley with daytime
heating. MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg and steepening low-level lapse rates
will favor forward propagation and widespread strong to locally
severe wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 05/30/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail will
be possible Monday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, with mainly
damaging wind potential from the mid and lower Mississippi Valley
into the Tennessee Valley.
...Central Plains...
An upper low will remain situated over the northwestern states on
Monday, with various disturbances rotating into WY with glancing
influence into CO. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to
develop over southeast Co with strongly backed/easterly low-level
winds north of the low across much of NE, KS and into eastern CO.
These easterly winds will maintain 50s F dewpoints into CO, where
strong heating and upslope flow should aid development near the
Front Range during the afternoon. Large hail will be likely with the
initial cells, with steep lapse rates aloft and 35+ kt deep-layer
shear aiding supercell development. With time, cells may
cluster/increase in coverage, with a severe MCS possible into KS
with damaging winds. Any such system also be supported by a 30-40 kt
low-level jet during the evening.
...Mid to Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A northwest flow regime aloft will exist across the MS and TN
Valleys on Monday as an upper trough amplifies over the Northeast. A
very moist air mass will already be in place, with potential for
early day thunderstorms as well. Timing for severe is a bit
uncertain due to possible ongoing activity Monday morning over
southern MO and vicinity. If this occurs, the primary severe threat
would likely evolve from that activity as the outflow proceeds
southeastward across the moist/unstable air mass. Otherwise, new
activity will be possible within the zone from the Mid MS/Lower OH
Valley southeastward across the TN and lower MS Valley with daytime
heating. MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg and steepening low-level lapse rates
will favor forward propagation and widespread strong to locally
severe wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 05/30/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail will
be possible Monday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, with mainly
damaging wind potential from the mid and lower Mississippi Valley
into the Tennessee Valley.
...Central Plains...
An upper low will remain situated over the northwestern states on
Monday, with various disturbances rotating into WY with glancing
influence into CO. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to
develop over southeast Co with strongly backed/easterly low-level
winds north of the low across much of NE, KS and into eastern CO.
These easterly winds will maintain 50s F dewpoints into CO, where
strong heating and upslope flow should aid development near the
Front Range during the afternoon. Large hail will be likely with the
initial cells, with steep lapse rates aloft and 35+ kt deep-layer
shear aiding supercell development. With time, cells may
cluster/increase in coverage, with a severe MCS possible into KS
with damaging winds. Any such system also be supported by a 30-40 kt
low-level jet during the evening.
...Mid to Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A northwest flow regime aloft will exist across the MS and TN
Valleys on Monday as an upper trough amplifies over the Northeast. A
very moist air mass will already be in place, with potential for
early day thunderstorms as well. Timing for severe is a bit
uncertain due to possible ongoing activity Monday morning over
southern MO and vicinity. If this occurs, the primary severe threat
would likely evolve from that activity as the outflow proceeds
southeastward across the moist/unstable air mass. Otherwise, new
activity will be possible within the zone from the Mid MS/Lower OH
Valley southeastward across the TN and lower MS Valley with daytime
heating. MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg and steepening low-level lapse rates
will favor forward propagation and widespread strong to locally
severe wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 05/30/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
The overall mid-to-upper-level pattern will once again be dominated
by a Pacific Northwest trough and a northern Gulf subtropical ridge.
Thus, despite broadly southwest mid-level flow across the Southwest
into the central US, the lack of overlap between areas of receptive
fuels and stronger flow will limit fire weather concerns except on a
localized basis.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
The overall mid-to-upper-level pattern will once again be dominated
by a Pacific Northwest trough and a northern Gulf subtropical ridge.
Thus, despite broadly southwest mid-level flow across the Southwest
into the central US, the lack of overlap between areas of receptive
fuels and stronger flow will limit fire weather concerns except on a
localized basis.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
The overall mid-to-upper-level pattern will once again be dominated
by a Pacific Northwest trough and a northern Gulf subtropical ridge.
Thus, despite broadly southwest mid-level flow across the Southwest
into the central US, the lack of overlap between areas of receptive
fuels and stronger flow will limit fire weather concerns except on a
localized basis.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE OZARKS...AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the
central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across
southwest Texas.
...Synopsis...
A weak negatively tilted shortwave trough will move northward across
the northern Rockies and Plains on Sunday, with cool midlevel
temperatures. Mid to high level winds of 30 to 60 kt will stretch
from CO into KS and NE, behind the upper wave. This will also result
in midlevel drying across the central Plains.
A surface trough is generally forecast to exist along the length of
the High Plains, with low pressure centers over SD and western TX
during the afternoon. High pressure will exist from the Great Lakes
to the East Coast with an upper trough over the Northeast, and
southerly surface winds will maintain low-level moisture west of
this surface high from the lower MS Valley northwestward across the
MO Valley.
...Dakotas southeastward into AR...
Storms may be ongoing over southern MO or northern AR Sunday
morning, with southwest low-level flow/warm advection supporting
continued unstable inflow. Conditionally, an MCS is possible, with
potential to persist southeastward into AR and perhaps even MS later
in the day. This is a bit uncertain, but locally severe gusts would
be possible.
Farther north, scattered daytime storms are likely beneath the upper
wave from central SD into ND. Temperatures aloft will be cool and
may support hail despite weak shear.
To the south, diurnal storms appear most likely from eastern KS into
western MO late in the afternoon and into the evening as moderate to
strong instability develops. Some of this may depend on how much
early day activity occurs, and if any outflow boundaries exist.
Conditionally, a couple supercells cannot be ruled out with hail and
brief tornado risk.
...OK into western TX...
Strong heating will occur along a dryline extending roughly from
north-central OK into northwest TX. Weak surface convergence, 60s F
dewpoints and a narrow corridor of weak inhibition may yield
isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. These storms would likely
be brief, but could yield locally strong gusts or marginal hail.
Farther south, storm coverage will be greater into southwest TX,
where southeast surface winds will maintain moisture flux into the
area during the afternoon. Scattered storms are likely here, with
locally strong outflow winds and perhaps marginal hail.
..Jewell.. 05/30/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE OZARKS...AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms are possible across the
central U.S. on Sunday, from the Dakotas into the Ozarks, and across
southwest Texas.
...Synopsis...
A weak negatively tilted shortwave trough will move northward across
the northern Rockies and Plains on Sunday, with cool midlevel
temperatures. Mid to high level winds of 30 to 60 kt will stretch
from CO into KS and NE, behind the upper wave. This will also result
in midlevel drying across the central Plains.
A surface trough is generally forecast to exist along the length of
the High Plains, with low pressure centers over SD and western TX
during the afternoon. High pressure will exist from the Great Lakes
to the East Coast with an upper trough over the Northeast, and
southerly surface winds will maintain low-level moisture west of
this surface high from the lower MS Valley northwestward across the
MO Valley.
...Dakotas southeastward into AR...
Storms may be ongoing over southern MO or northern AR Sunday
morning, with southwest low-level flow/warm advection supporting
continued unstable inflow. Conditionally, an MCS is possible, with
potential to persist southeastward into AR and perhaps even MS later
in the day. This is a bit uncertain, but locally severe gusts would
be possible.
Farther north, scattered daytime storms are likely beneath the upper
wave from central SD into ND. Temperatures aloft will be cool and
may support hail despite weak shear.
To the south, diurnal storms appear most likely from eastern KS into
western MO late in the afternoon and into the evening as moderate to
strong instability develops. Some of this may depend on how much
early day activity occurs, and if any outflow boundaries exist.
Conditionally, a couple supercells cannot be ruled out with hail and
brief tornado risk.
...OK into western TX...
Strong heating will occur along a dryline extending roughly from
north-central OK into northwest TX. Weak surface convergence, 60s F
dewpoints and a narrow corridor of weak inhibition may yield
isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. These storms would likely
be brief, but could yield locally strong gusts or marginal hail.
Farther south, storm coverage will be greater into southwest TX,
where southeast surface winds will maintain moisture flux into the
area during the afternoon. Scattered storms are likely here, with
locally strong outflow winds and perhaps marginal hail.
..Jewell.. 05/30/2026
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 301700Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/30/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move slowly north out of the central Rockies
into the northern Rockies. The resulting Pacific Northwest trough
and northern Gulf subtropical ridge will place much of Southwest
into the central US beneath broadly southwest flow. Morning water
vapor imagery suggests a developing mid-level wave/vorticity maximum
across northern Mexico, and this feature will quickly move northwest
within the mid-level flow.
Large scale fire weather concerns will be low on Day 1/Saturday as
regions with receptive fuels (Southwest/Great Basin) will largely be
removed from regions with stronger flow, and regions where flow
would support a fire weather concern, recent rainfall should
mitigate that threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026
Valid 301630Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over
the central Great Plains. The stronger thunderstorms will
potentially be capable of severe gusts, large hail, and a couple of
tornadoes.
...Central KS into OK...
A negatively-tilted upper trough will rotate northeastward across
the central High Plains region today, with a 40-50 knot mid level
jet moving into the region. Southerly/southeasterly low-level winds
in the warm sector of a surface low over eastern CO will maintain a
zone of high dewpoints and very unstable air mass across much of
central KS and northern OK. This region will be most favorable for
severe storms this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being
the primary concern.
Thunderstorms will initially form along a diffuse dryline from
southwest KS southward along the TX/OK border. Temperatures
approaching 100F will result in a deeply mixed boundary-layer,
promoting strong outflow winds despite vertical shear profiles that
favor supercell structures. As this activity spreads northeastward
through the high CAPE zone, large hail and damaging winds will
remain the primary concern, but a tornado or two will also be
possible in any storms that can maintain discrete mode. Activity
should weaken by mid-evening as they move into a more stable
environment over eastern NE/southwest IA/northwest MO.
...Northeast CO/NE Panhandle...
Easterly surface winds on the north side of the aforementioned
surface low have advected low-level moisture westward into the
northern foothills of CO. Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form in this region, as well as the along the DCVZ and
near the dryline over northwest KS. All of this activity will build
northeastward through the afternoon/evening with a combination of
supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two. These storms may remain at least
occasionally severe into central SD before weakening tonight.
..Hart/Weinman.. 05/30/2026
Read more
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible
on Sunday from parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the
central and northern Plains.
...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northward across the
north-central U.S. on Sunday, as flow in its wake remains from the
west-southwest. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast to develop
over southern South Dakota as a dryline sharpens over western Kansas
and western Nebraska. A broad moist sector will be in place from the
dryline eastward to near the Mississippi River. Across much of this
moist airmass, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop
by afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible along low-level
convergence zones that setup in the afternoon. However, convective
coverage should remain isolated due to rising mid-level heights
associated with a ridge aloft. In spite of the weak forcing, the
environment will support an isolated severe threat with cells that
can initiate and persist. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be
the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 05/29/2026
Read more
