Storm Prediction Center

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH TO 10 SSW VLD TO 15 E MGR TO 15 NNW MGR TO 35 SSW CSG. ..CHALMERS..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC067-079-123-122140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAFAYETTE MADISON TAYLOR GAC019-071-075-095-173-177-185-273-277-321-122140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN COLQUITT COOK DOUGHERTY LANIER LEE LOWNDES TERRELL TIFT WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH TO 10 SSW VLD TO 15 E MGR TO 15 NNW MGR TO 35 SSW CSG. ..CHALMERS..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC067-079-123-122140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAFAYETTE MADISON TAYLOR GAC019-071-075-095-173-177-185-273-277-321-122140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN COLQUITT COOK DOUGHERTY LANIER LEE LOWNDES TERRELL TIFT WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH TO 10 SSW VLD TO 15 E MGR TO 15 NNW MGR TO 35 SSW CSG. ..CHALMERS..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC067-079-123-122140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAFAYETTE MADISON TAYLOR GAC019-071-075-095-173-177-185-273-277-321-122140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN COLQUITT COOK DOUGHERTY LANIER LEE LOWNDES TERRELL TIFT WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SAV TO 10 SE AGS TO 10 ESE CAE TO 25 E SPA. ..HALBERT..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC005-009-011-017-023-025-027-039-049-055-057-061-075-079-085- 130040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL CALHOUN CHESTER CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON FAIRFIELD HAMPTON KERSHAW LANCASTER LEE ORANGEBURG RICHLAND SUMTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SAV TO 10 SE AGS TO 10 ESE CAE TO 25 E SPA. ..HALBERT..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC005-009-011-017-023-025-027-039-049-055-057-061-075-079-085- 130040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL CALHOUN CHESTER CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON FAIRFIELD HAMPTON KERSHAW LANCASTER LEE ORANGEBURG RICHLAND SUMTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SAV TO 10 SE AGS TO 10 ESE CAE TO 25 E SPA. ..HALBERT..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC005-009-011-017-023-025-027-039-049-055-057-061-075-079-085- 130040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL CALHOUN CHESTER CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON FAIRFIELD HAMPTON KERSHAW LANCASTER LEE ORANGEBURG RICHLAND SUMTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 486 SEVERE TSTM GA SC 121850Z - 130100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 486 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into Eastern Georgia Central South Carolina * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Several clusters of thunderstorms will gradually move from west to east across the Watch area through the early evening. Some of the more intense thunderstorms will yield a risk for strong to severe gusts (50 to 60 mph) capable of wind damage. This activity will likely diminish around sunset. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Macon GA to 50 miles northeast of Orangeburg SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 485... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...FGZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC007-013-019-021-023-025-130040- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GILA MARICOPA PIMA PINAL SANTA CRUZ YAVAPAI THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 12 23:30:08 UTC 2026.

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SAV TO 10 SE AGS TO 10 ESE CAE TO 25 E SPA. ..HALBERT..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC005-009-011-017-023-025-027-039-049-055-057-061-075-079-085- 130040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL CALHOUN CHESTER CHESTERFIELD CLARENDON FAIRFIELD HAMPTON KERSHAW LANCASTER LEE ORANGEBURG RICHLAND SUMTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 486 SEVERE TSTM GA SC 121850Z - 130100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 486 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into Eastern Georgia Central South Carolina * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Several clusters of thunderstorms will gradually move from west to east across the Watch area through the early evening. Some of the more intense thunderstorms will yield a risk for strong to severe gusts (50 to 60 mph) capable of wind damage. This activity will likely diminish around sunset. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Macon GA to 50 miles northeast of Orangeburg SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 485... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Smith Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC...FGZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC007-013-019-021-023-025-130040- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GILA MARICOPA PIMA PINAL SANTA CRUZ YAVAPAI THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 487 SEVERE TSTM AZ 122200Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and south central Arizona * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Storms clusters are forming over the Mogollon Rim and the mountains in southeast Arizona, and the storms are expected to spread westward through late evening. The storm environment favors severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph as the primary threat as storms propagate into the lower deserts, especially where outflow mergers occur. Otherwise, the strongest initial cells could also produce isolated large hail near 1 inch diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Phoenix AZ to 60 miles south southwest of Tucson AZ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 485...WW 486... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 08020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0487 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper high will develop and persist over the central/northern Plains into the Midwest through at least Day 5/Thursday. Upper-level troughing will continue near and off the Pacific Northwest coast with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across much of the Intermountain West early to midweek. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin, but an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies beyond Day 4/Wednesday, helping suppress moisture south and eastward. Farther east, a deep upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast as it digs southward on Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday, leading to unsettled conditions across the region through the remainder of the forecast period. ...Northern California, much of Oregon, and northwestern Nevada... Monsoonal moisture (PWAT values of 0.8-1.5") is continuing to advect west and north across the Great Basin, eastern California, and into portions of the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies. On the western/northern fringes of the deeper moisture, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are likely. On Day 3/Tuesday, 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities were maintained across far northern California into central-eastern Oregon. Forecast PWAT values of 0.8-1" and surface dewpoints of 35-50F will likely to lead to at least pockets of wetting rain. However, storm motions of 25-40 knots, 30% or less probabilities of rainfall exceeding 0.1", and receptive fuels should uphold a concern for lightning ignitions. Additionally, deeper moisture will move out of these areas by mid-week with dry/breezy conditions to follow. ...Central to northern High Plains... Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern Colorado on Day 3/Tuesday through at least Day 5/Thursday. While RH will recover overnight, south-southeast winds are likely to remain breezy amid dry fuels. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained on Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday, and introduced on Day 5/Thursday. ...California Central Valley... Warm daytime temperatures and low RH will contribute to drying fuels across the Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley. ERCs are forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile mid-week amid dry and breezy conditions, supporting any new ignitions and the emergence of any lightning holdovers from sporadic wet/dry thunderstorms early in the forecast period. 40% Critical probabilities were withheld on Day 3/Tuesday for now, but have been introduced on Day 4/Wednesday where ensembles depict a broader overlap of meteorological fire weather conditions. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper high will develop and persist over the central/northern Plains into the Midwest through at least Day 5/Thursday. Upper-level troughing will continue near and off the Pacific Northwest coast with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across much of the Intermountain West early to midweek. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin, but an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies beyond Day 4/Wednesday, helping suppress moisture south and eastward. Farther east, a deep upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast as it digs southward on Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday, leading to unsettled conditions across the region through the remainder of the forecast period. ...Northern California, much of Oregon, and northwestern Nevada... Monsoonal moisture (PWAT values of 0.8-1.5") is continuing to advect west and north across the Great Basin, eastern California, and into portions of the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies. On the western/northern fringes of the deeper moisture, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are likely. On Day 3/Tuesday, 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities were maintained across far northern California into central-eastern Oregon. Forecast PWAT values of 0.8-1" and surface dewpoints of 35-50F will likely to lead to at least pockets of wetting rain. However, storm motions of 25-40 knots, 30% or less probabilities of rainfall exceeding 0.1", and receptive fuels should uphold a concern for lightning ignitions. Additionally, deeper moisture will move out of these areas by mid-week with dry/breezy conditions to follow. ...Central to northern High Plains... Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern Colorado on Day 3/Tuesday through at least Day 5/Thursday. While RH will recover overnight, south-southeast winds are likely to remain breezy amid dry fuels. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained on Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday, and introduced on Day 5/Thursday. ...California Central Valley... Warm daytime temperatures and low RH will contribute to drying fuels across the Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley. ERCs are forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile mid-week amid dry and breezy conditions, supporting any new ignitions and the emergence of any lightning holdovers from sporadic wet/dry thunderstorms early in the forecast period. 40% Critical probabilities were withheld on Day 3/Tuesday for now, but have been introduced on Day 4/Wednesday where ensembles depict a broader overlap of meteorological fire weather conditions. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper high will develop and persist over the central/northern Plains into the Midwest through at least Day 5/Thursday. Upper-level troughing will continue near and off the Pacific Northwest coast with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across much of the Intermountain West early to midweek. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin, but an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies beyond Day 4/Wednesday, helping suppress moisture south and eastward. Farther east, a deep upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast as it digs southward on Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday, leading to unsettled conditions across the region through the remainder of the forecast period. ...Northern California, much of Oregon, and northwestern Nevada... Monsoonal moisture (PWAT values of 0.8-1.5") is continuing to advect west and north across the Great Basin, eastern California, and into portions of the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies. On the western/northern fringes of the deeper moisture, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are likely. On Day 3/Tuesday, 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities were maintained across far northern California into central-eastern Oregon. Forecast PWAT values of 0.8-1" and surface dewpoints of 35-50F will likely to lead to at least pockets of wetting rain. However, storm motions of 25-40 knots, 30% or less probabilities of rainfall exceeding 0.1", and receptive fuels should uphold a concern for lightning ignitions. Additionally, deeper moisture will move out of these areas by mid-week with dry/breezy conditions to follow. ...Central to northern High Plains... Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern Colorado on Day 3/Tuesday through at least Day 5/Thursday. While RH will recover overnight, south-southeast winds are likely to remain breezy amid dry fuels. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained on Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday, and introduced on Day 5/Thursday. ...California Central Valley... Warm daytime temperatures and low RH will contribute to drying fuels across the Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley. ERCs are forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile mid-week amid dry and breezy conditions, supporting any new ignitions and the emergence of any lightning holdovers from sporadic wet/dry thunderstorms early in the forecast period. 40% Critical probabilities were withheld on Day 3/Tuesday for now, but have been introduced on Day 4/Wednesday where ensembles depict a broader overlap of meteorological fire weather conditions. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper high will develop and persist over the central/northern Plains into the Midwest through at least Day 5/Thursday. Upper-level troughing will continue near and off the Pacific Northwest coast with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across much of the Intermountain West early to midweek. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin, but an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies beyond Day 4/Wednesday, helping suppress moisture south and eastward. Farther east, a deep upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast as it digs southward on Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday, leading to unsettled conditions across the region through the remainder of the forecast period. ...Northern California, much of Oregon, and northwestern Nevada... Monsoonal moisture (PWAT values of 0.8-1.5") is continuing to advect west and north across the Great Basin, eastern California, and into portions of the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies. On the western/northern fringes of the deeper moisture, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are likely. On Day 3/Tuesday, 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities were maintained across far northern California into central-eastern Oregon. Forecast PWAT values of 0.8-1" and surface dewpoints of 35-50F will likely to lead to at least pockets of wetting rain. However, storm motions of 25-40 knots, 30% or less probabilities of rainfall exceeding 0.1", and receptive fuels should uphold a concern for lightning ignitions. Additionally, deeper moisture will move out of these areas by mid-week with dry/breezy conditions to follow. ...Central to northern High Plains... Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern Colorado on Day 3/Tuesday through at least Day 5/Thursday. While RH will recover overnight, south-southeast winds are likely to remain breezy amid dry fuels. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained on Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday, and introduced on Day 5/Thursday. ...California Central Valley... Warm daytime temperatures and low RH will contribute to drying fuels across the Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley. ERCs are forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile mid-week amid dry and breezy conditions, supporting any new ignitions and the emergence of any lightning holdovers from sporadic wet/dry thunderstorms early in the forecast period. 40% Critical probabilities were withheld on Day 3/Tuesday for now, but have been introduced on Day 4/Wednesday where ensembles depict a broader overlap of meteorological fire weather conditions. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A strong upper high will develop and persist over the central/northern Plains into the Midwest through at least Day 5/Thursday. Upper-level troughing will continue near and off the Pacific Northwest coast with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across much of the Intermountain West early to midweek. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin, but an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies beyond Day 4/Wednesday, helping suppress moisture south and eastward. Farther east, a deep upper-level trough is expected to weaken the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast as it digs southward on Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday, leading to unsettled conditions across the region through the remainder of the forecast period. ...Northern California, much of Oregon, and northwestern Nevada... Monsoonal moisture (PWAT values of 0.8-1.5") is continuing to advect west and north across the Great Basin, eastern California, and into portions of the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies. On the western/northern fringes of the deeper moisture, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are likely. On Day 3/Tuesday, 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities were maintained across far northern California into central-eastern Oregon. Forecast PWAT values of 0.8-1" and surface dewpoints of 35-50F will likely to lead to at least pockets of wetting rain. However, storm motions of 25-40 knots, 30% or less probabilities of rainfall exceeding 0.1", and receptive fuels should uphold a concern for lightning ignitions. Additionally, deeper moisture will move out of these areas by mid-week with dry/breezy conditions to follow. ...Central to northern High Plains... Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern Colorado on Day 3/Tuesday through at least Day 5/Thursday. While RH will recover overnight, south-southeast winds are likely to remain breezy amid dry fuels. 40% Critical probabilities have been maintained on Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday, and introduced on Day 5/Thursday. ...California Central Valley... Warm daytime temperatures and low RH will contribute to drying fuels across the Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley. ERCs are forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile mid-week amid dry and breezy conditions, supporting any new ignitions and the emergence of any lightning holdovers from sporadic wet/dry thunderstorms early in the forecast period. 40% Critical probabilities were withheld on Day 3/Tuesday for now, but have been introduced on Day 4/Wednesday where ensembles depict a broader overlap of meteorological fire weather conditions. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1607 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Georgia into central South Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486... Valid 122046Z - 122215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind gusts continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486. Some potential for isolated damaging gusts may also develop/persist downstream into portions of northeastern SC/southeastern NC with time. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorm activity continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486 as of 2045 UTC, with isolated reports of damaging wind gusts noted over the past 1-2 hours. Continued heating of a moist low-level air mass continues to support moderately strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates. This environment favors the continued potential for damaging wind gusts across the Watch area, particularly from eastern GA into western SC where low-level lapse rates are steeper. Latest objective analysis also depicts a zone of steeper low-level lapse rates across portions of southeastern NC. Convection evolving eastward from northern SC and/or additional thunderstorm development across the NC Coastal Plain may pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts through this evening, but downstream watch issuance appears unlikely at this time due to the expectation for this risk to remain isolated in nature. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 33818361 34248281 34258273 34818124 35038019 35177882 35147795 35077755 34857730 34497724 34107756 33767798 33427960 33188051 32958135 32458270 32388336 32578384 33128393 33468382 33818361 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more