Storm Prediction Center

No watches are valid as of Fri May 29 07:27:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 29 07:27:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the central Rockies at the start of the forecast period will slowly lift north toward the northern Rockies during the forecast period. This will place much of the Southwest into Central US in broad southwest flow, between a Pacific Northwest trough and a Gulf mid-level ridge. Despite the favorable mid-level pattern configuration for fire weather concerns, the overall flow appears too weak across areas with receptive fuels and fuels appear to be unreceptive across areas with stronger flow. Thus, large-scale fire weather concerns look to be minimal across the CONUS on Day-2/Saturday. ..Marsh.. 05/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... The closed mid-level low across the western CONUS will open up and lift northeast from southern Nevada/California into the central Rockies. As this occurs, a mid-level jet streak located in the basal region of the trough will traverse the Southwest, Four Corners, into central Colorado. ... Colorado Plateau and Southwest ... Strong diurnal heating of a dry atmosphere will support afternoon relative humidity to fall into the teens across the region. At the same time, the mid-level jet streak will be overhead. As the boundary layer deepens beneath this jet streak, strong vertical mixing will result in strong, gusty winds reaching the surface, perhaps locally as high as 25-30 mph. Receptive fuels across the area will combine with meteorological conditions to support a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, deep boundary layer circulations, coupled with large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture associated with the passing trough, will support some thunderstorm potential across portions of northern Arizona, central and eastern Utah, and western Colorado. Given receptive fuels and a dry atmosphere (as measured by precipitable water values generally at or below 0.5 inches) will support at least some potential for dry thunderstorms, especially given average forecast storm speeds around 30 knots. ..Marsh.. 05/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the central Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Western and Central Nebraska/Southern and Western South Dakota/Eastern Wyoming/Northeast Colorado/Southeast Montana... At mid-levels, a low will remain over southwestern Wyoming on Saturday, as a shortwave trough moves into the central High Plains. At the surface, a trough will deepen over the central and northern High Plains. Surface winds will be from a southeasterly direction over much of Nebraska and South Dakota, which will result in moisture advection throughout the day. By afternoon, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the central Plains extending northwestward into the northern High Plains. Low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized near a well-developed dryline. In response, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline in the afternoon and move north and northeastward across western and central Nebraska into southern South Dakota. To the east of the dryline and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range by late afternoon. Forecast soundings at 00Z in west-central Nebraska suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening, as a cluster of strong to severe storms moves northeastward across central Nebraska and south-central South Dakota. Widely-spaced severe thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of southeast Montana, but instability is forecast to be weaker which will keep any severe threat more localized. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/West Texas... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the south-central U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a sharply defined dryline is forecast to be located from central Kansas south-southwestward into western Oklahoma and west-central Texas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Along and to the east of much of the dryline, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support an isolated severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary hazards. Forcing is expected to be relatively weak which will keep storm coverage isolated. ..Broyles.. 05/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the central Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Western and Central Nebraska/Southern and Western South Dakota/Eastern Wyoming/Northeast Colorado/Southeast Montana... At mid-levels, a low will remain over southwestern Wyoming on Saturday, as a shortwave trough moves into the central High Plains. At the surface, a trough will deepen over the central and northern High Plains. Surface winds will be from a southeasterly direction over much of Nebraska and South Dakota, which will result in moisture advection throughout the day. By afternoon, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the central Plains extending northwestward into the northern High Plains. Low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized near a well-developed dryline. In response, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline in the afternoon and move north and northeastward across western and central Nebraska into southern South Dakota. To the east of the dryline and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range by late afternoon. Forecast soundings at 00Z in west-central Nebraska suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid to late evening, as a cluster of strong to severe storms moves northeastward across central Nebraska and south-central South Dakota. Widely-spaced severe thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of southeast Montana, but instability is forecast to be weaker which will keep any severe threat more localized. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/West Texas... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the south-central U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a sharply defined dryline is forecast to be located from central Kansas south-southwestward into western Oklahoma and west-central Texas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Along and to the east of much of the dryline, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support an isolated severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary hazards. Forcing is expected to be relatively weak which will keep storm coverage isolated. ..Broyles.. 05/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of western Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah, and the northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low over central CA with a subtropic jet emanating out of Baja CA into the southern Rockies. Over the next 24 hours both of these features will migrate east/northeast into the central and southern High Plains. Despite some weakening of the upper wave, 25-35 knot mid-level flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains where low-level moisture is gradually increasing within a weak east/southeasterly flow regime. The combination of modest broad-scale ascent and strengthening deep-layer shear atop a moistening low-level air mass should support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms during and after peak heating from southern TX northward across the southern Plains and into parts of the central High Plains. Elsewhere, orographic ascent within the northern Rockies will support another day of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a few severe storms. A migratory upper trough over the central CONUS will continue to support scattered, but weak, thunderstorms across the OH Valley and Southeast states this afternoon. ...Southern Plains and central High Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon across western TX into eastern CO along a modestly deepening lee surface trough where ascent should be focused and mixed-layer inhibition minimized. Slightly stronger synoptic ascent across the southern High Plains should promote higher thunderstorm coverage across western TX/TX Panhandle region with more isolated coverage with northward extent. 15% wind probabilities were introduced across portions of western TX to reflect the potential for higher storm coverage. Across both the southern and central High Plains warm low-level conditions/deep boundary-layer mixing combined with weak flow within the lowest 1-3 km will likely promote outflow dominant storms with an attendant threat for severe gusts. Stronger mid-level flow across western TX may support a more prolonged severe threat, and possibly a few transient supercells capable of large hail and/or organized bands capable of gusts upwards of 75 mph. Through the late evening, isentropic ascent near the terminus of the nocturnal jet may support elevated, loosely organized convection across portions of northwest OK and western KS. ...Northern Rockies/Montana... Diurnally-driven orographic ascent within the terrain of northern ID and southwest MT will likely support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon given weak capping and northward advection of steep mid-level lapse rates. Residual low-level moisture across north-central MT (dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s) coupled with 30-35 knot southerly mid-level flow will likely promote intensification and some degree of organization (possibly into transient supercells and/or organized bands) through the early evening hours. Sporadic large hail and severe gusts appear possible with the most intense convection as it spreads north towards the Canadian border. ...Southern Utah... 5% wind probabilities were introduced across southern to southeast UT where weak, high-based convection may support a few strong to severe dry downbursts. Although latest CAM ensemble guidance depicts scant buoyancy (MUCAPE between 100-250 J/kg) and very transient convection, a very deep boundary layer (LCL values upwards of 3 km) featuring 25-35 knot flow will likely promote sporadic strong to severe wind gusts. ..Moore/Marsh.. 05/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of western Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah, and the northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low over central CA with a subtropic jet emanating out of Baja CA into the southern Rockies. Over the next 24 hours both of these features will migrate east/northeast into the central and southern High Plains. Despite some weakening of the upper wave, 25-35 knot mid-level flow will overspread the central and southern High Plains where low-level moisture is gradually increasing within a weak east/southeasterly flow regime. The combination of modest broad-scale ascent and strengthening deep-layer shear atop a moistening low-level air mass should support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms during and after peak heating from southern TX northward across the southern Plains and into parts of the central High Plains. Elsewhere, orographic ascent within the northern Rockies will support another day of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, including a few severe storms. A migratory upper trough over the central CONUS will continue to support scattered, but weak, thunderstorms across the OH Valley and Southeast states this afternoon. ...Southern Plains and central High Plains... Thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon across western TX into eastern CO along a modestly deepening lee surface trough where ascent should be focused and mixed-layer inhibition minimized. Slightly stronger synoptic ascent across the southern High Plains should promote higher thunderstorm coverage across western TX/TX Panhandle region with more isolated coverage with northward extent. 15% wind probabilities were introduced across portions of western TX to reflect the potential for higher storm coverage. Across both the southern and central High Plains warm low-level conditions/deep boundary-layer mixing combined with weak flow within the lowest 1-3 km will likely promote outflow dominant storms with an attendant threat for severe gusts. Stronger mid-level flow across western TX may support a more prolonged severe threat, and possibly a few transient supercells capable of large hail and/or organized bands capable of gusts upwards of 75 mph. Through the late evening, isentropic ascent near the terminus of the nocturnal jet may support elevated, loosely organized convection across portions of northwest OK and western KS. ...Northern Rockies/Montana... Diurnally-driven orographic ascent within the terrain of northern ID and southwest MT will likely support isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon given weak capping and northward advection of steep mid-level lapse rates. Residual low-level moisture across north-central MT (dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s) coupled with 30-35 knot southerly mid-level flow will likely promote intensification and some degree of organization (possibly into transient supercells and/or organized bands) through the early evening hours. Sporadic large hail and severe gusts appear possible with the most intense convection as it spreads north towards the Canadian border. ...Southern Utah... 5% wind probabilities were introduced across southern to southeast UT where weak, high-based convection may support a few strong to severe dry downbursts. Although latest CAM ensemble guidance depicts scant buoyancy (MUCAPE between 100-250 J/kg) and very transient convection, a very deep boundary layer (LCL values upwards of 3 km) featuring 25-35 knot flow will likely promote sporadic strong to severe wind gusts. ..Moore/Marsh.. 05/29/2026 Read more

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 249 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW CTB TO 40 WNW GPI TO 65 NNE GEG TO 50 NW GEG TO 20 NNE EPH TO 20 S EAT TO 20 WNW YKM. ..KERR..05/29/26 ATTN...WFO...OTX...MSO...PDT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 249 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IDC021-290640- ID . IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOUNDARY MTC029-290640- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLATHEAD WAC007-017-019-037-047-051-065-290640- WA . WASHINGTON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHELAN DOUGLAS FERRY KITTITAS OKANOGAN PEND OREILLE STEVENS Read more

WW 249 SEVERE TSTM ID MT WA 282220Z - 290700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 249 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM PDT Thu May 28 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Idaho Western Montana Central and Eastern Washington * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 320 PM until Midnight PDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon through early evening, initially across west-central/northern-central Idaho as well as western Montana and interior Washington. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail and locally damaging winds, and over time, some semi-organized storm clusters could evolve into northern Idaho and eastern Washington later this evening as storms spread north-northwestward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 180 statute miles east and west of a line from 100 miles north northeast of Spokane WA to 50 miles east southeast of Walla Walla WA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 13025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 248 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PDT TO 30 SW PDT TO 65 WSW PDT TO 35 SSE DLS TO 45 SSW DLS. WW 248 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 290300Z. ..MEAD..05/29/26 ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...PQR...MFR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 248 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ORC021-055-059-065-290300- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GILLIAM SHERMAN UMATILLA WASCO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 27 12:35:08 UTC 2026.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an upper low will weaken as it moves from UT into WY, with midlevel wind speeds at or below 25 kt across the northern Rockies/Plains. This feature will persist into Sunday/D5 and Monday/D6 as it moves toward MT and eventually into Canada. Given the weak winds aloft, severe potential should be relatively low, but isolated strong storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains. Farther south, stronger instability is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will exist. Although unstable, shear will be quite weak. Saturday/D4 may hold slightly greater severe potential compared to other days, as the southern lobe of the western trough lifts north out of the southern/central Plains. However, shear will still be marginal, and the likelihood antecedent precip/outflows lessens predictability in the weak forcing pattern. The stronger instability air mass appear most prominent through about Monday/D6. Thereafter, an upper trough may amplify over the eastern CONUS, driving high pressure south across the eastern CONUS/MS Valley. Read more

WW 245 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 270110Z - 271100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 245 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 810 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 810 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...One cluster of storms will have the potential to produce damaging gusts of 60-75 mph, large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter and a tornado or two across areas near and southeast of San Antonio for the next few hours. Additional storms will likely form farther to the southwest and move across South Texas during the overnight/early morning hours, with continued potential for wind damage and isolated large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northeast of Cotulla TX to 75 miles south southwest of Alice TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 244... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0864 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0864 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Areas affected...portions of south-central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244... Valid 262220Z - 262345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of greater severe potential appears likely downstream of a developing cluster with embedded supercell structures, with a threat for all severe hazards. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery depicts an evolving thunderstorm cluster to the south of Del Rio, Texas, as of 2200 UTC. Although hail estimates have since decreased to some extent, MRMS and other MESH estimates of hail size ranged from 2-3+ inches in diameter over the past hour, with stronger low-level rotation also previously noted (Vrot exceeded 35-40 kts) with an embedded supercell structure. The environment downstream of this cluster remains supportive of all severe hazards, with effective layer STP and SHIP values of 2-3 analyzed via latest objective analysis and 150 m2/s2 0-500 SRH sampled by the DFX VAD profile. Latest high-res guidance suggests that this cluster will propagate east-southeastward into south-central Texas over the next couple of hours, yielding a corridor of greater severe potential. Recent WoFS/HRRR runs in particular suggest that severe to significant severe gusts will be the primary hazard. While the cluster storm mode may somewhat limit the magnitude of the tornado/hail threat, large to very large hail and a tornado or two will still remain possible with any embedded supercell structures. Downstream of this cluster, a discrete supercell that has recently produced large hail and measured severe gusts remains ongoing, with some signs of additional discrete development to its south (towering Cu and weak reflectivity echoes noted in McMullen County). Will monitor for a downstream watch pending this development or the eventual southeastward propagation of the aforementioned cluster. ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29440083 29470051 29429966 29439957 29319882 29039821 28679795 28399797 28229807 28119833 28119886 28199932 28309968 28480038 28790100 29090107 29320094 29440083 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0865 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0865 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Areas affected...parts of northern Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262223Z - 270100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms may progress across the international border by around 8 PM EDT, with continuing potential for a few strong gusts before weakening further thereafter. DISCUSSION...The most prominent thunderstorm activity, within a pre-frontal convective band now advancing to the southeast of the St. Lawrence Valley, appears to be propagating a bit slower and to the right of the 50-60 kt deep-layer westerly ambient mean flow, but still around 40 kt. With this continuing motion, storms are on pace to progress across the international border, coincident with a broad area of lower pressure to the south of the primary surface cyclone, between 23-00Z. Latest mesoanalysis suggests that the modestly deep mixed boundary layer ahead of activity may remain sufficiently unstable to support convection capable of producing a few strong surface gusts into portions of northern Maine, before storms weaken further with diminishing severe weather potential thereafter. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 46337223 46647119 46907038 47116938 46486815 45816994 45777058 46337223 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level low will remain over the Great Basin on Day 3/Thursday before evolving into an open wave Day 4/Friday and ejecting into Northern Rockies by Day 5/Saturday. The trough and associated stronger south to southwest flow will support ongoing fire weather concerns through Day 4/Friday. Forecast confidence remains high for a persistent blocking ridge encompassing the central U.S., northward into the Hudson Bay. Upper troughing east of the ridge should keep a low fire weather threat amid below normal temperatures across the Northeast through early next week. Deep low-level moisture across the Southeast and Southern Plains will bolster a heavier rainfall potential as a series of diffuse mid-level waves traverse the southern U.S. through early next week. ...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday - Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Broad southwesterly flow associated with the slow moving upper low over the Great Basin will sustain a fire weather threat for portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest on Day 3/Thursday. South winds 15-20 mph and RH around 15% combined with drier lower elevation fuels should promote at least elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. Some modifications were made to the existing 40% critical probability area owing to recent rainfall across eastern AZ into western NM. ...Day 3/Thursday - Northeastern Montana... Dry southeasterly flow over the northern High Plains ahead of a persistent surface trough across central MT, will support another day of enhanced fire weather concerns across northeastern MT on Day 3/Thursday. 40% critical probabilities have been introduced to northeastern MT where receptive fuels are still present within pockets of green up. ...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... Longer term forecast guidance suggests a muted fire weather threat across CONUS over the weekend into early next week. Diminishing winds across the Intermountain West are expected in the wake of the exiting upper-level trough. Under the blocking ridge over the central U.S., dominant surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest should promote light winds and a reduced fire weather concern. However, dry conditions and warming temperatures will continue to dry fuels across much of north-central CONUS through the weekend. ..Williams.. 05/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE 6R6 TO 60 SSW SJT TO 40 NE SJT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862 ..WENDT..05/26/26 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-095-127-137-163-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-323-325-327- 385-411-413-435-463-465-507-262140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA CONCHO DIMMIT EDWARDS FRIO GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MEDINA MENARD REAL SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE 6R6 TO 60 SSW SJT TO 40 NE SJT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862 ..WENDT..05/26/26 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-095-127-137-163-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-323-325-327- 385-411-413-435-463-465-507-262140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA CONCHO DIMMIT EDWARDS FRIO GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MEDINA MENARD REAL SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0862 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244... FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
Mesoscale Discussion 0862 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Areas affected...Portions of Texas Hill Country Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244... Valid 262007Z - 262130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and severe gusts will remain the greatest threat in WW 244. There is a locally more favorable zone for tornadoes between Eagle Pass and San Antonio. DISCUSSION...Linear convection from near Del Rio to east of San Angelo has yet to become more substantially organized thus far. Continued heating/moistening out ahead of this activity should eventually allow for some intensification and upscale growth to occur. West of San Antonio, discrete storms have been ongoing. Given the very moist (70+ F dewpoints) and the locally enhanced low-level shear on the KDFX VAD, these storms will pose the greatest threat of a tornado or two and potentially hail around 2 in. over the next couple of hours. With time, the expectation remains that a linear MCS will develop and move east/southeast later this afternoon. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 05/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29040148 30190151 30900079 30910042 30379870 30009835 29089840 28769890 28379968 28400045 29040148 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more