Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Afternoon Update... An Elevated risk area has been introduced across far northern MN to account for 10-15 mph southwesterly winds (gusts up to 25 mph) and daytime RH values declining to 20-30% amid dry fuels. In addition, the Hot Dry Windy Index depicts parts of the region to exceed the 90th percentile, and ERCs are also forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile. Farther west, a residual dry airmass and gusty northeasterly winds up to 15 mph will promote locally elevated fire weather concerns across eastern MT. A few afternoon thunderstorms in southwestern CO may initially pose a concern for lightning ignitions amid a very dry fuelscape; however, slow storm motions favoring precipitation efficiency, and increasing moisture/chances of accumulating rainfall in the coming days precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise, minimal adjustments were made to Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk areas based on updated guidance. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough and associated jet streak translates eastward across the Canadian Prairie on Monday, ridging will intensify over much of the Central US. Southerly and southeasterly flow around the western periphery of this ridge will transport monsoonal moisture northward into the Western US, resulting in a few pockets of dry/wet thunderstorms. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions across the central and northern High Plains will support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Colorado into Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota... Dry and windy conditions are forecast across portions of the central and northern High Plains on Monday, as surface winds respond to a lee trough. These winds are anticipated to be around 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity varying between 10-20%. Dead fuels guidance has ERCs in the 95th annual percentile range, but some semi-recent rainfall and live vegetation will serve to reduce some of the volatility of those fuels. At least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast at this time. ...Southwestern Montana and Northeastern California/Northwestern Nevada... Monsoonal moisture transported northward along the western periphery of the mid-level ridge will bring showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Intermountain West. While anticipated to be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to portions of northeastern California into northwestern Nevada on Monday. This mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will overlap with receptive fuels, and lightning on the periphery of the wetter downdrafts will still be capable of wildfire ignitions. In far southwestern Montana, a more classic isolated dry thunderstorm environment is forecast. Precipitable water content of 0.5-0.75" is forecast where HREF/REFS guidance shows thunderstorm activity developing. Proximity soundings to this thunderstorm activity shows deep inverted-V profiles and relatively fast storm motions. This should result in limited precipitation efficiency of thunderstorm activity overlapping with critically receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Afternoon Update... An Elevated risk area has been introduced across far northern MN to account for 10-15 mph southwesterly winds (gusts up to 25 mph) and daytime RH values declining to 20-30% amid dry fuels. In addition, the Hot Dry Windy Index depicts parts of the region to exceed the 90th percentile, and ERCs are also forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile. Farther west, a residual dry airmass and gusty northeasterly winds up to 15 mph will promote locally elevated fire weather concerns across eastern MT. A few afternoon thunderstorms in southwestern CO may initially pose a concern for lightning ignitions amid a very dry fuelscape; however, slow storm motions favoring precipitation efficiency, and increasing moisture/chances of accumulating rainfall in the coming days precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise, minimal adjustments were made to Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk areas based on updated guidance. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough and associated jet streak translates eastward across the Canadian Prairie on Monday, ridging will intensify over much of the Central US. Southerly and southeasterly flow around the western periphery of this ridge will transport monsoonal moisture northward into the Western US, resulting in a few pockets of dry/wet thunderstorms. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions across the central and northern High Plains will support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Colorado into Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota... Dry and windy conditions are forecast across portions of the central and northern High Plains on Monday, as surface winds respond to a lee trough. These winds are anticipated to be around 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity varying between 10-20%. Dead fuels guidance has ERCs in the 95th annual percentile range, but some semi-recent rainfall and live vegetation will serve to reduce some of the volatility of those fuels. At least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast at this time. ...Southwestern Montana and Northeastern California/Northwestern Nevada... Monsoonal moisture transported northward along the western periphery of the mid-level ridge will bring showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Intermountain West. While anticipated to be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to portions of northeastern California into northwestern Nevada on Monday. This mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will overlap with receptive fuels, and lightning on the periphery of the wetter downdrafts will still be capable of wildfire ignitions. In far southwestern Montana, a more classic isolated dry thunderstorm environment is forecast. Precipitable water content of 0.5-0.75" is forecast where HREF/REFS guidance shows thunderstorm activity developing. Proximity soundings to this thunderstorm activity shows deep inverted-V profiles and relatively fast storm motions. This should result in limited precipitation efficiency of thunderstorm activity overlapping with critically receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Afternoon Update... An Elevated risk area has been introduced across far northern MN to account for 10-15 mph southwesterly winds (gusts up to 25 mph) and daytime RH values declining to 20-30% amid dry fuels. In addition, the Hot Dry Windy Index depicts parts of the region to exceed the 90th percentile, and ERCs are also forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile. Farther west, a residual dry airmass and gusty northeasterly winds up to 15 mph will promote locally elevated fire weather concerns across eastern MT. A few afternoon thunderstorms in southwestern CO may initially pose a concern for lightning ignitions amid a very dry fuelscape; however, slow storm motions favoring precipitation efficiency, and increasing moisture/chances of accumulating rainfall in the coming days precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise, minimal adjustments were made to Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk areas based on updated guidance. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough and associated jet streak translates eastward across the Canadian Prairie on Monday, ridging will intensify over much of the Central US. Southerly and southeasterly flow around the western periphery of this ridge will transport monsoonal moisture northward into the Western US, resulting in a few pockets of dry/wet thunderstorms. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions across the central and northern High Plains will support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Colorado into Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota... Dry and windy conditions are forecast across portions of the central and northern High Plains on Monday, as surface winds respond to a lee trough. These winds are anticipated to be around 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity varying between 10-20%. Dead fuels guidance has ERCs in the 95th annual percentile range, but some semi-recent rainfall and live vegetation will serve to reduce some of the volatility of those fuels. At least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast at this time. ...Southwestern Montana and Northeastern California/Northwestern Nevada... Monsoonal moisture transported northward along the western periphery of the mid-level ridge will bring showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Intermountain West. While anticipated to be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to portions of northeastern California into northwestern Nevada on Monday. This mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will overlap with receptive fuels, and lightning on the periphery of the wetter downdrafts will still be capable of wildfire ignitions. In far southwestern Montana, a more classic isolated dry thunderstorm environment is forecast. Precipitable water content of 0.5-0.75" is forecast where HREF/REFS guidance shows thunderstorm activity developing. Proximity soundings to this thunderstorm activity shows deep inverted-V profiles and relatively fast storm motions. This should result in limited precipitation efficiency of thunderstorm activity overlapping with critically receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Afternoon Update... An Elevated risk area has been introduced across far northern MN to account for 10-15 mph southwesterly winds (gusts up to 25 mph) and daytime RH values declining to 20-30% amid dry fuels. In addition, the Hot Dry Windy Index depicts parts of the region to exceed the 90th percentile, and ERCs are also forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile. Farther west, a residual dry airmass and gusty northeasterly winds up to 15 mph will promote locally elevated fire weather concerns across eastern MT. A few afternoon thunderstorms in southwestern CO may initially pose a concern for lightning ignitions amid a very dry fuelscape; however, slow storm motions favoring precipitation efficiency, and increasing moisture/chances of accumulating rainfall in the coming days precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise, minimal adjustments were made to Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk areas based on updated guidance. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough and associated jet streak translates eastward across the Canadian Prairie on Monday, ridging will intensify over much of the Central US. Southerly and southeasterly flow around the western periphery of this ridge will transport monsoonal moisture northward into the Western US, resulting in a few pockets of dry/wet thunderstorms. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions across the central and northern High Plains will support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Colorado into Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota... Dry and windy conditions are forecast across portions of the central and northern High Plains on Monday, as surface winds respond to a lee trough. These winds are anticipated to be around 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity varying between 10-20%. Dead fuels guidance has ERCs in the 95th annual percentile range, but some semi-recent rainfall and live vegetation will serve to reduce some of the volatility of those fuels. At least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast at this time. ...Southwestern Montana and Northeastern California/Northwestern Nevada... Monsoonal moisture transported northward along the western periphery of the mid-level ridge will bring showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Intermountain West. While anticipated to be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to portions of northeastern California into northwestern Nevada on Monday. This mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will overlap with receptive fuels, and lightning on the periphery of the wetter downdrafts will still be capable of wildfire ignitions. In far southwestern Montana, a more classic isolated dry thunderstorm environment is forecast. Precipitable water content of 0.5-0.75" is forecast where HREF/REFS guidance shows thunderstorm activity developing. Proximity soundings to this thunderstorm activity shows deep inverted-V profiles and relatively fast storm motions. This should result in limited precipitation efficiency of thunderstorm activity overlapping with critically receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1600 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX VICINITY INTO NORTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 1600 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...northeast TX vicinity into northern LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121712Z - 121915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon. Sporadic strong gusts are possible, though severe potential is expected to remain limited. DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass characterized by 70s F dewpoints is in place across the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon. Strong heating of this very moist airmass along a west to east oriented surface boundary is supporting moderate instability as of midday. Thunderstorms are already developing along this boundary, and on the southern periphery of a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima. Vertical shear will remain weak today, limiting a more organized severe risk. However, steepening low-level lapse rates through the afternoon in conjunction with water laden downdrafts, could support sporadic wet microbursts, with a few stronger gusts possible. A severe thunderstorm watch appears unlikely at this time. ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34149707 33849510 33149259 32639155 32239147 31769188 31489324 31489507 31929657 32309732 32919764 33569765 33869761 34149707 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1601 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1601 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Georgia into much of South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121724Z - 121930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase over the next 1-2 hours across portions of Georgia and South Carolina, bringing a threat for damaging wind gusts. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...A hot, humid air mass remains in place across much of the Southeast, with temperatures noted to have already warmed into the low/mid 90s across portions of eastern Georgia and southern/central South Carolina as of 1720 UTC. Visible satellite imagery depicts increasingly agitated cumulus across the region, with developing thunderstorms noted south and east of the Atlanta Metro. Continued heating of this air mass will promote further destabilization through the afternoon to around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and increasing convective coverage over the next couple of hours. Weak deep-layer flow and effective shear suggest a relatively disorganized, outflow-dominant storm mode, but steepening low-level lapse rates and PW content near 2 inches will facilitate a risk for damaging wind gusts (with gusts up to around 60 mph possible) across the region. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to cover this potential within the next 1-2 hours. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31108148 31208198 31558281 32228339 33018366 33218367 33718370 34098354 34338330 34488288 34648187 34578083 34308014 33917962 33567927 33227913 33087918 32577979 32128051 31768094 31188117 31108148 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1602 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121750Z - 121945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms will spread across portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northern parts of Lake Michigan over the next few hours. Isolated large hail and gusty winds are possible with this activity, though watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Additional thunderstorms have been showing some intensification over Lake Superior as they approach central portions of the U.P. This activity is occurring within an area of enhanced effective shear focused mainly north of the international border. Objective analysis indicates weak capping persists across the region. However, a weak to moderate MUCAPE gradient is oriented across the U.P. and will support continued southward storm development. Vertical shear weakens with southward extent so stronger/better organized convection may be short-lived, with storms gradually weakening as they shift southward across central portions of the U.P. before dissipating near northern Lake Michigan. Given isolated coverage and small spatial extent of the overall severe risk, a watch is not currently expected. ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 47588653 46608551 45778573 45318654 45538710 45998741 46588754 47298738 47448715 47548675 47588653 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1603 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1603 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121752Z - 121945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms may bring a low probability risk for localized damaging downburst wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Increasingly agitated cumulus, and a few isolated thunderstorms, were evident on visible satellite and regional radar imagery across the lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast/Gulf Coast as of 1750 UTC. This activity is located within a warm and moist low-level air mass to the south of a surface frontal boundary. Aided by forcing for ascent ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough, convection is forecast to increase in coverage over the next several hours, with the greatest coverage likely to occur where any consolidated cold pools intersect the inland-progressing sea breeze later this afternoon/evening. Slightly cooler surface temperatures should yield marginally weaker low-level lapse rates (relative to areas farther east); however, localized damaging downburst winds may still occur given PW near 2 inches across the region. This threat is expected to remain too isolated to warrant watch issuance. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31709145 32139148 32539144 32829129 33029100 33109032 33208924 33298849 33408755 33538649 33668560 33758476 33828427 33668383 33388369 32928362 32568374 32348398 32178434 32038502 31818562 31678617 31428667 31018714 30678752 30438801 30368838 30388874 30488929 30769030 31099105 31379138 31709145 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0486 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1599 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1599 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of North Florida and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia and southeastern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121700Z - 121900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps an instance or two of small hail will be possible over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along the Gulf Coast sea breeze from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida amid a hot and humid air mass, with a couple of gusts measured in the 40-45 mph range over the past 1-2 hours. Temperatures near 90 F and dewpoints in the low/mid 70s are already supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, with further destabilization expected through peak heating this afternoon. Coupled with high PW (greater than 2 inches) and steepening low-level lapse rates, an isolated risk for water-loaded downbursts, damaging wind gusts (with localized gusts to 65 mph possible), and perhaps an instance or two of small hail should materialize across the region. Weak effective shear and deep layer-flow will temper overall convective intensity and organization. Thus, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30528654 30638694 30848714 31148709 31568668 31778581 31678470 31288317 30858213 30528168 30228136 29838111 29518091 29118076 28828072 28528094 28338128 28228167 28228197 28298217 28428230 28698254 28918284 29198312 29588346 29968402 29998425 29878444 29718466 29558488 29548531 29708548 29968570 30208601 30528654 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0485 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0485 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. Additional isolated severe storms are possible in southwestern Montana. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the CONUS on Monday. Strong cyclonic flow will exist across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. A weak upper-level low will be present in the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians. A stalled surface boundary will be draped across the southern Plains into the Carolinas. ...Georgia/South Carolina... A stalled surface boundary will continue to be the focus for convection on Monday. Surface heating is expected to be less than previous days. Even so, a weak upper low will bring subtle lift/flow enhancement near the surface boundary. Overall storm organization will be low. That said, around 20 kt of shear near the boundary, large PWAT values, and scattered/numerous storms will promote a risk of water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated wind damage. ...Southwest Montana... Model trends have suggested that sufficient moisture/destabilization will be in place by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop within the higher terrain and move quickly northeastward. Temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s F and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a risk for severe winds. ...Arizona... Temperatures are expected to be cooler on Monday on account of the impacts of weekend convection. Coupled with weaker and slightly more southwesterly mid-level winds, it is not clear how much strong to potentially severe activity will be able to move off of the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon/evening. A stronger storm or two could produce gusty outflow winds where greater heating can occur, but this activity should be much more spatially limited than previous days. ..Wendt.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. Additional isolated severe storms are possible in southwestern Montana. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the CONUS on Monday. Strong cyclonic flow will exist across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. A weak upper-level low will be present in the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians. A stalled surface boundary will be draped across the southern Plains into the Carolinas. ...Georgia/South Carolina... A stalled surface boundary will continue to be the focus for convection on Monday. Surface heating is expected to be less than previous days. Even so, a weak upper low will bring subtle lift/flow enhancement near the surface boundary. Overall storm organization will be low. That said, around 20 kt of shear near the boundary, large PWAT values, and scattered/numerous storms will promote a risk of water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated wind damage. ...Southwest Montana... Model trends have suggested that sufficient moisture/destabilization will be in place by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop within the higher terrain and move quickly northeastward. Temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s F and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a risk for severe winds. ...Arizona... Temperatures are expected to be cooler on Monday on account of the impacts of weekend convection. Coupled with weaker and slightly more southwesterly mid-level winds, it is not clear how much strong to potentially severe activity will be able to move off of the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon/evening. A stronger storm or two could produce gusty outflow winds where greater heating can occur, but this activity should be much more spatially limited than previous days. ..Wendt.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. Additional isolated severe storms are possible in southwestern Montana. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the CONUS on Monday. Strong cyclonic flow will exist across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. A weak upper-level low will be present in the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians. A stalled surface boundary will be draped across the southern Plains into the Carolinas. ...Georgia/South Carolina... A stalled surface boundary will continue to be the focus for convection on Monday. Surface heating is expected to be less than previous days. Even so, a weak upper low will bring subtle lift/flow enhancement near the surface boundary. Overall storm organization will be low. That said, around 20 kt of shear near the boundary, large PWAT values, and scattered/numerous storms will promote a risk of water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated wind damage. ...Southwest Montana... Model trends have suggested that sufficient moisture/destabilization will be in place by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop within the higher terrain and move quickly northeastward. Temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s F and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a risk for severe winds. ...Arizona... Temperatures are expected to be cooler on Monday on account of the impacts of weekend convection. Coupled with weaker and slightly more southwesterly mid-level winds, it is not clear how much strong to potentially severe activity will be able to move off of the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon/evening. A stronger storm or two could produce gusty outflow winds where greater heating can occur, but this activity should be much more spatially limited than previous days. ..Wendt.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. Additional isolated severe storms are possible in southwestern Montana. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to build across the CONUS on Monday. Strong cyclonic flow will exist across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. A weak upper-level low will be present in the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians. A stalled surface boundary will be draped across the southern Plains into the Carolinas. ...Georgia/South Carolina... A stalled surface boundary will continue to be the focus for convection on Monday. Surface heating is expected to be less than previous days. Even so, a weak upper low will bring subtle lift/flow enhancement near the surface boundary. Overall storm organization will be low. That said, around 20 kt of shear near the boundary, large PWAT values, and scattered/numerous storms will promote a risk of water-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated wind damage. ...Southwest Montana... Model trends have suggested that sufficient moisture/destabilization will be in place by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop within the higher terrain and move quickly northeastward. Temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s F and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a risk for severe winds. ...Arizona... Temperatures are expected to be cooler on Monday on account of the impacts of weekend convection. Coupled with weaker and slightly more southwesterly mid-level winds, it is not clear how much strong to potentially severe activity will be able to move off of the Mogollon Rim during the afternoon/evening. A stronger storm or two could produce gusty outflow winds where greater heating can occur, but this activity should be much more spatially limited than previous days. ..Wendt.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO PORTIONS OF IDAHO AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...Morning Update... No changes were made to the fire weather risk areas. Very light showers (with minimal precipitation expected at the surface) are passing over northeastern CA into south-central OR this morning. Cloud cover is expected to persist across this region today, which may alleviate some broader fire concerns; however, afternoon wind gusts of 25-35 mph amid 80-90th percentile ERCs will maintain Elevated highlights. Farther east, mostly clear skies (passing high clouds) and critically low RH values -- surface observations already depicting less than 20% RH across eastern ID/southern MT/northern WY -- will contribute to extensive critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. A 30-40 kt 700 mb jet will overlap eastern ID and southern MT, with deeper mixing encouraging strong wind gusts to reach the surface. South-southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph will precede an approaching cold front this evening (between 03-06z). A directional wind shift to northwesterly is expected behind the front, though initial breezy winds will gradually decline to less than 10 mph overnight with increasing RH. The cold front is forecast to stall somewhere across central-eastern MT into far northwestern ND. Meanwhile, a low-level jet will emerge across eastern MT/WY and the western Dakotas after 00z (ahead of the cold front), generating strong southerly wind gusts of 35-45 mph into the overnight hours. These conditions should be monitored closely as it could further exacerbate the fire environment, impacting any active wildfires and control efforts. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to progress east-northeastward from British Columbia into the interior Canadian provinces today as an upper-level ridge moves from the Great Basin into the High Plains. Residual flow across the Pacific Northwest from the ejecting trough and a deepening surface low across eastern Montana will be responsible for Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West to the northern High Plains. ...Southern Montana into portions of Idaho and northern Wyoming... As a surface low deepens over eastern Montana this afternoon into the evening, the intensifying surface pressure gradient will result in sustained winds of 20-25 MPH across much of the area. Relative humidity of 10-15% is expected across portions of Idaho into southwestern Montana, and could get as low as 5-10% in south-central Montana into northern Wyoming. With ERCs largely in the 80th-95th annual percentiles across the region, Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast. As the surface low moves eastward and a cold front moves through the area, winds will shift from largely southerly to west-northwesterly but should still be gusting 20-25 MPH. ...Northern High Plains... Strong southeasterly surface flow ahead of the deepening cyclone should result in sustained 15-20 MPH winds across the far western Dakotas into portions of Wyoming and Montana. Relative humidity is forecast to be in the range of 5-15%, getting more moist with eastward extent. While ERCs are largely in the 90th-95th annual percentile range, this guidance does not account for live fuels and the current state of green vegetation. Given the uncertainty in the quality of fuels with this eastward extent, Elevated fire-weather highlights have been maintained -- though periods of Critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ...Southern Oregon into portions of northern Nevada and California... Lingering dry and breezy conditions in the wake of the ejecting mid-level jet streak will persist this afternoon across portions of northeastern California/northwestern Nevada into southern Oregon. Winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity around 15-20% will overlap with modestly receptive fuels, resulting in Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern and Central California... Isolated to scattered high-based showers appear possible across portions of California. Occasional lightning is possible, but limited buoyancy puts the likelihood at less than 10% coverage. Portions of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts may see a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity, but uncertainty in the coverage and rainfall amounts precludes highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO PORTIONS OF IDAHO AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...Morning Update... No changes were made to the fire weather risk areas. Very light showers (with minimal precipitation expected at the surface) are passing over northeastern CA into south-central OR this morning. Cloud cover is expected to persist across this region today, which may alleviate some broader fire concerns; however, afternoon wind gusts of 25-35 mph amid 80-90th percentile ERCs will maintain Elevated highlights. Farther east, mostly clear skies (passing high clouds) and critically low RH values -- surface observations already depicting less than 20% RH across eastern ID/southern MT/northern WY -- will contribute to extensive critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. A 30-40 kt 700 mb jet will overlap eastern ID and southern MT, with deeper mixing encouraging strong wind gusts to reach the surface. South-southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph will precede an approaching cold front this evening (between 03-06z). A directional wind shift to northwesterly is expected behind the front, though initial breezy winds will gradually decline to less than 10 mph overnight with increasing RH. The cold front is forecast to stall somewhere across central-eastern MT into far northwestern ND. Meanwhile, a low-level jet will emerge across eastern MT/WY and the western Dakotas after 00z (ahead of the cold front), generating strong southerly wind gusts of 35-45 mph into the overnight hours. These conditions should be monitored closely as it could further exacerbate the fire environment, impacting any active wildfires and control efforts. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to progress east-northeastward from British Columbia into the interior Canadian provinces today as an upper-level ridge moves from the Great Basin into the High Plains. Residual flow across the Pacific Northwest from the ejecting trough and a deepening surface low across eastern Montana will be responsible for Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West to the northern High Plains. ...Southern Montana into portions of Idaho and northern Wyoming... As a surface low deepens over eastern Montana this afternoon into the evening, the intensifying surface pressure gradient will result in sustained winds of 20-25 MPH across much of the area. Relative humidity of 10-15% is expected across portions of Idaho into southwestern Montana, and could get as low as 5-10% in south-central Montana into northern Wyoming. With ERCs largely in the 80th-95th annual percentiles across the region, Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast. As the surface low moves eastward and a cold front moves through the area, winds will shift from largely southerly to west-northwesterly but should still be gusting 20-25 MPH. ...Northern High Plains... Strong southeasterly surface flow ahead of the deepening cyclone should result in sustained 15-20 MPH winds across the far western Dakotas into portions of Wyoming and Montana. Relative humidity is forecast to be in the range of 5-15%, getting more moist with eastward extent. While ERCs are largely in the 90th-95th annual percentile range, this guidance does not account for live fuels and the current state of green vegetation. Given the uncertainty in the quality of fuels with this eastward extent, Elevated fire-weather highlights have been maintained -- though periods of Critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ...Southern Oregon into portions of northern Nevada and California... Lingering dry and breezy conditions in the wake of the ejecting mid-level jet streak will persist this afternoon across portions of northeastern California/northwestern Nevada into southern Oregon. Winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity around 15-20% will overlap with modestly receptive fuels, resulting in Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern and Central California... Isolated to scattered high-based showers appear possible across portions of California. Occasional lightning is possible, but limited buoyancy puts the likelihood at less than 10% coverage. Portions of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts may see a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity, but uncertainty in the coverage and rainfall amounts precludes highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO PORTIONS OF IDAHO AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...Morning Update... No changes were made to the fire weather risk areas. Very light showers (with minimal precipitation expected at the surface) are passing over northeastern CA into south-central OR this morning. Cloud cover is expected to persist across this region today, which may alleviate some broader fire concerns; however, afternoon wind gusts of 25-35 mph amid 80-90th percentile ERCs will maintain Elevated highlights. Farther east, mostly clear skies (passing high clouds) and critically low RH values -- surface observations already depicting less than 20% RH across eastern ID/southern MT/northern WY -- will contribute to extensive critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. A 30-40 kt 700 mb jet will overlap eastern ID and southern MT, with deeper mixing encouraging strong wind gusts to reach the surface. South-southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph will precede an approaching cold front this evening (between 03-06z). A directional wind shift to northwesterly is expected behind the front, though initial breezy winds will gradually decline to less than 10 mph overnight with increasing RH. The cold front is forecast to stall somewhere across central-eastern MT into far northwestern ND. Meanwhile, a low-level jet will emerge across eastern MT/WY and the western Dakotas after 00z (ahead of the cold front), generating strong southerly wind gusts of 35-45 mph into the overnight hours. These conditions should be monitored closely as it could further exacerbate the fire environment, impacting any active wildfires and control efforts. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to progress east-northeastward from British Columbia into the interior Canadian provinces today as an upper-level ridge moves from the Great Basin into the High Plains. Residual flow across the Pacific Northwest from the ejecting trough and a deepening surface low across eastern Montana will be responsible for Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West to the northern High Plains. ...Southern Montana into portions of Idaho and northern Wyoming... As a surface low deepens over eastern Montana this afternoon into the evening, the intensifying surface pressure gradient will result in sustained winds of 20-25 MPH across much of the area. Relative humidity of 10-15% is expected across portions of Idaho into southwestern Montana, and could get as low as 5-10% in south-central Montana into northern Wyoming. With ERCs largely in the 80th-95th annual percentiles across the region, Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast. As the surface low moves eastward and a cold front moves through the area, winds will shift from largely southerly to west-northwesterly but should still be gusting 20-25 MPH. ...Northern High Plains... Strong southeasterly surface flow ahead of the deepening cyclone should result in sustained 15-20 MPH winds across the far western Dakotas into portions of Wyoming and Montana. Relative humidity is forecast to be in the range of 5-15%, getting more moist with eastward extent. While ERCs are largely in the 90th-95th annual percentile range, this guidance does not account for live fuels and the current state of green vegetation. Given the uncertainty in the quality of fuels with this eastward extent, Elevated fire-weather highlights have been maintained -- though periods of Critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ...Southern Oregon into portions of northern Nevada and California... Lingering dry and breezy conditions in the wake of the ejecting mid-level jet streak will persist this afternoon across portions of northeastern California/northwestern Nevada into southern Oregon. Winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity around 15-20% will overlap with modestly receptive fuels, resulting in Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern and Central California... Isolated to scattered high-based showers appear possible across portions of California. Occasional lightning is possible, but limited buoyancy puts the likelihood at less than 10% coverage. Portions of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts may see a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity, but uncertainty in the coverage and rainfall amounts precludes highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO PORTIONS OF IDAHO AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...Morning Update... No changes were made to the fire weather risk areas. Very light showers (with minimal precipitation expected at the surface) are passing over northeastern CA into south-central OR this morning. Cloud cover is expected to persist across this region today, which may alleviate some broader fire concerns; however, afternoon wind gusts of 25-35 mph amid 80-90th percentile ERCs will maintain Elevated highlights. Farther east, mostly clear skies (passing high clouds) and critically low RH values -- surface observations already depicting less than 20% RH across eastern ID/southern MT/northern WY -- will contribute to extensive critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. A 30-40 kt 700 mb jet will overlap eastern ID and southern MT, with deeper mixing encouraging strong wind gusts to reach the surface. South-southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph will precede an approaching cold front this evening (between 03-06z). A directional wind shift to northwesterly is expected behind the front, though initial breezy winds will gradually decline to less than 10 mph overnight with increasing RH. The cold front is forecast to stall somewhere across central-eastern MT into far northwestern ND. Meanwhile, a low-level jet will emerge across eastern MT/WY and the western Dakotas after 00z (ahead of the cold front), generating strong southerly wind gusts of 35-45 mph into the overnight hours. These conditions should be monitored closely as it could further exacerbate the fire environment, impacting any active wildfires and control efforts. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to progress east-northeastward from British Columbia into the interior Canadian provinces today as an upper-level ridge moves from the Great Basin into the High Plains. Residual flow across the Pacific Northwest from the ejecting trough and a deepening surface low across eastern Montana will be responsible for Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West to the northern High Plains. ...Southern Montana into portions of Idaho and northern Wyoming... As a surface low deepens over eastern Montana this afternoon into the evening, the intensifying surface pressure gradient will result in sustained winds of 20-25 MPH across much of the area. Relative humidity of 10-15% is expected across portions of Idaho into southwestern Montana, and could get as low as 5-10% in south-central Montana into northern Wyoming. With ERCs largely in the 80th-95th annual percentiles across the region, Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast. As the surface low moves eastward and a cold front moves through the area, winds will shift from largely southerly to west-northwesterly but should still be gusting 20-25 MPH. ...Northern High Plains... Strong southeasterly surface flow ahead of the deepening cyclone should result in sustained 15-20 MPH winds across the far western Dakotas into portions of Wyoming and Montana. Relative humidity is forecast to be in the range of 5-15%, getting more moist with eastward extent. While ERCs are largely in the 90th-95th annual percentile range, this guidance does not account for live fuels and the current state of green vegetation. Given the uncertainty in the quality of fuels with this eastward extent, Elevated fire-weather highlights have been maintained -- though periods of Critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ...Southern Oregon into portions of northern Nevada and California... Lingering dry and breezy conditions in the wake of the ejecting mid-level jet streak will persist this afternoon across portions of northeastern California/northwestern Nevada into southern Oregon. Winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity around 15-20% will overlap with modestly receptive fuels, resulting in Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern and Central California... Isolated to scattered high-based showers appear possible across portions of California. Occasional lightning is possible, but limited buoyancy puts the likelihood at less than 10% coverage. Portions of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts may see a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity, but uncertainty in the coverage and rainfall amounts precludes highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more