Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...Northwest Arizona... A vigorous upper low centered over northern CA and associated 997 mb surface low in NV will bring enhanced south/southwest flow ahead of a cold front to the eastern half of the Great Basin and parts of the Desert Southwest today. Elevated fire weather conditions including south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity as low as 15% will affect much of eastern NV, western UT into far northwestern AZ. Recent rainfall over portions of the Mogollon Rim and northwest AZ will have a mitigating effect on fuel receptivity today, necessitating a trimming of Elevated Highlights from this area. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. Please see previous discussion below for more details. ..Williams.. 05/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026/ ...Synopsis... A robust upper level low will shift southward into the Great Basin as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the central CONUS. Weak upper troughing will also persist across the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop across the northern High Plains as a cold front progresses eastward across the Great Basin. Additional chances for wetting rainfall/thunderstorms are expected across south-central Texas in association with a passing shortwave trough and across much of the Southeast. ...Great Basin... Southwesterly flow aloft and a deepening surface low will promote a strengthening surface pressure gradient across the region. Ahead of an eastward progressing cold front, sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected and a deeply mixed and dry boundary layer will support RH reductions of 15-20%. These conditions will promote an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat amid cured/drying fine fuels, primarily in lower elevation/mid-slope areas. Only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights based on recent guidance. ...Northeastern Montana and Extreme Western North Dakota... As the upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest progresses southeastward towards the Great Basin, pronounced lee surface trough development is expected across central MT. As a result, southeasterly winds will accelerate to 15-20 mph across much of the northern High Plains, while limited low-level moisture return will support RH reductions to 15-20% during peak afternoon heating across eastern MT. Delayed green up and existing dry fuels align with these dry and breezy conditions, maintaining Elevated fire weather highlights. Afternoon heating and resultant instability may support isolated thunderstorm development along far southern and western MT. Forecast soundings depict a prominent dry sub-cloud layer and PWATs of 0.5-0.8", allowing some threat of dry thunderstorms to evolve. However, sufficient green-up and less receptive fuels may otherwise mitigate a broader IsoDryT threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0860 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS TRANS PECOS
Mesoscale Discussion 0860 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Trans Pecos Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261253Z - 261430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally severe wind gusts and hail are possible with storms as they track eastward over the next couple hours. A watch is not expected for this activity. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has emerged over the TX Trans-Pecos region, with recent organization of a small cold pool. As these storms track eastward along the northern periphery of a weakly unstable air mass, around 30 kt of line-normal effective shear and increasingly moist inflow may support continued eastward progression with an accompanying risk of locally severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/26/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 30000345 30710350 30860337 30970287 30930236 30710220 30160213 29920242 29870312 30000345 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible through this evening. ...Southwest into South-Central Texas... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak mid-level trough over southern NM and Far West TX. This upper feature will slowly migrate east into the Permian Basin and Concho Valley later this afternoon/evening. Early morning showers/thunderstorms and their associated outflow and relatively cool air have overspread the Permian Basin. To the southeast of the rain-cooled airmass, the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob sampled moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.3 deg C/km) and 2200 J/kg MUCAPE. A weak area of low pressure near the Big Bend will maintain a moist, easterly low-level fetch into the Edwards Plateau. Heating via cloud breaks and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Strong veering of the low-level wind profile with 20-25 kt westerly 500-mb flow will support organized storms, including supercells with the stronger updrafts. Some tornado threat may evolve with one or two more intense supercells but this risk will largely be dependent on mesoscale factors. Clusters of storms are eventually expected with the severe risk continuing into the evening with the stronger storms capable of wind/hail. ...Kentucky... A seasonably moisture-rich airmass is located along and south of a residual frontal zone draped from the confluence of the OH-MS Rivers east-northeast across the OH Valley. Despite considerable cloud cover, some heating will result in weak instability. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms coincident with peak heating are forecast. Modest southwesterly mid-level flow (20-30 kt) may act to aid in some organization of cells. An isolated risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this activity. ...Upper Midwest... A weak MCV was noted over the Mid MO Valley this morning embedded within a weak westerly mid-level flow regime to the north of a flattened mid-level anticyclone. In the low levels, a quasi-stationary boundary will be draped generally west to east across the region. South of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. Model guidance indicates scattered storm coverage later this afternoon in the wake of morning showers/storms over parts of this region. Isolated wind/hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ...Northern Rockies... A belt of south-southeasterly 20-30 kt mid-level flow will reside in between a mid-level cyclone over northern CA and an anticyclone over the Midwest. A lee trough over the northern High Plains will focus thunderstorm development later today as the boundary layer destabilizes. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast to be the strongest. ..Smith/Weinman.. 05/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible through this evening. ...Southwest into South-Central Texas... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak mid-level trough over southern NM and Far West TX. This upper feature will slowly migrate east into the Permian Basin and Concho Valley later this afternoon/evening. Early morning showers/thunderstorms and their associated outflow and relatively cool air have overspread the Permian Basin. To the southeast of the rain-cooled airmass, the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob sampled moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.3 deg C/km) and 2200 J/kg MUCAPE. A weak area of low pressure near the Big Bend will maintain a moist, easterly low-level fetch into the Edwards Plateau. Heating via cloud breaks and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Strong veering of the low-level wind profile with 20-25 kt westerly 500-mb flow will support organized storms, including supercells with the stronger updrafts. Some tornado threat may evolve with one or two more intense supercells but this risk will largely be dependent on mesoscale factors. Clusters of storms are eventually expected with the severe risk continuing into the evening with the stronger storms capable of wind/hail. ...Kentucky... A seasonably moisture-rich airmass is located along and south of a residual frontal zone draped from the confluence of the OH-MS Rivers east-northeast across the OH Valley. Despite considerable cloud cover, some heating will result in weak instability. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms coincident with peak heating are forecast. Modest southwesterly mid-level flow (20-30 kt) may act to aid in some organization of cells. An isolated risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this activity. ...Upper Midwest... A weak MCV was noted over the Mid MO Valley this morning embedded within a weak westerly mid-level flow regime to the north of a flattened mid-level anticyclone. In the low levels, a quasi-stationary boundary will be draped generally west to east across the region. South of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. Model guidance indicates scattered storm coverage later this afternoon in the wake of morning showers/storms over parts of this region. Isolated wind/hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ...Northern Rockies... A belt of south-southeasterly 20-30 kt mid-level flow will reside in between a mid-level cyclone over northern CA and an anticyclone over the Midwest. A lee trough over the northern High Plains will focus thunderstorm development later today as the boundary layer destabilizes. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast to be the strongest. ..Smith/Weinman.. 05/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible through this evening. ...Southwest into South-Central Texas... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak mid-level trough over southern NM and Far West TX. This upper feature will slowly migrate east into the Permian Basin and Concho Valley later this afternoon/evening. Early morning showers/thunderstorms and their associated outflow and relatively cool air have overspread the Permian Basin. To the southeast of the rain-cooled airmass, the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob sampled moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.3 deg C/km) and 2200 J/kg MUCAPE. A weak area of low pressure near the Big Bend will maintain a moist, easterly low-level fetch into the Edwards Plateau. Heating via cloud breaks and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Strong veering of the low-level wind profile with 20-25 kt westerly 500-mb flow will support organized storms, including supercells with the stronger updrafts. Some tornado threat may evolve with one or two more intense supercells but this risk will largely be dependent on mesoscale factors. Clusters of storms are eventually expected with the severe risk continuing into the evening with the stronger storms capable of wind/hail. ...Kentucky... A seasonably moisture-rich airmass is located along and south of a residual frontal zone draped from the confluence of the OH-MS Rivers east-northeast across the OH Valley. Despite considerable cloud cover, some heating will result in weak instability. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms coincident with peak heating are forecast. Modest southwesterly mid-level flow (20-30 kt) may act to aid in some organization of cells. An isolated risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this activity. ...Upper Midwest... A weak MCV was noted over the Mid MO Valley this morning embedded within a weak westerly mid-level flow regime to the north of a flattened mid-level anticyclone. In the low levels, a quasi-stationary boundary will be draped generally west to east across the region. South of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. Model guidance indicates scattered storm coverage later this afternoon in the wake of morning showers/storms over parts of this region. Isolated wind/hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ...Northern Rockies... A belt of south-southeasterly 20-30 kt mid-level flow will reside in between a mid-level cyclone over northern CA and an anticyclone over the Midwest. A lee trough over the northern High Plains will focus thunderstorm development later today as the boundary layer destabilizes. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast to be the strongest. ..Smith/Weinman.. 05/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible through this evening. ...Southwest into South-Central Texas... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak mid-level trough over southern NM and Far West TX. This upper feature will slowly migrate east into the Permian Basin and Concho Valley later this afternoon/evening. Early morning showers/thunderstorms and their associated outflow and relatively cool air have overspread the Permian Basin. To the southeast of the rain-cooled airmass, the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob sampled moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.3 deg C/km) and 2200 J/kg MUCAPE. A weak area of low pressure near the Big Bend will maintain a moist, easterly low-level fetch into the Edwards Plateau. Heating via cloud breaks and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Strong veering of the low-level wind profile with 20-25 kt westerly 500-mb flow will support organized storms, including supercells with the stronger updrafts. Some tornado threat may evolve with one or two more intense supercells but this risk will largely be dependent on mesoscale factors. Clusters of storms are eventually expected with the severe risk continuing into the evening with the stronger storms capable of wind/hail. ...Kentucky... A seasonably moisture-rich airmass is located along and south of a residual frontal zone draped from the confluence of the OH-MS Rivers east-northeast across the OH Valley. Despite considerable cloud cover, some heating will result in weak instability. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms coincident with peak heating are forecast. Modest southwesterly mid-level flow (20-30 kt) may act to aid in some organization of cells. An isolated risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this activity. ...Upper Midwest... A weak MCV was noted over the Mid MO Valley this morning embedded within a weak westerly mid-level flow regime to the north of a flattened mid-level anticyclone. In the low levels, a quasi-stationary boundary will be draped generally west to east across the region. South of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. Model guidance indicates scattered storm coverage later this afternoon in the wake of morning showers/storms over parts of this region. Isolated wind/hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening. ...Northern Rockies... A belt of south-southeasterly 20-30 kt mid-level flow will reside in between a mid-level cyclone over northern CA and an anticyclone over the Midwest. A lee trough over the northern High Plains will focus thunderstorm development later today as the boundary layer destabilizes. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast to be the strongest. ..Smith/Weinman.. 05/26/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low is forecast to be located over the Great Basin on Friday/D4, moving into the northern Rockies/High Plains through Saturday/D5, and weakening all the while. Models indicate 500 mb winds by Saturday will only be in the 20-25 kt range with this feature. Therefore, despite low 60s F dewpoints, the severe risk is expected to be somewhat disorganized. However, at least low probabilities may be required in later outlook updates. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the lower MS Valley, from Saturday/D5 into Sunday/D6. Given the expected very moist air mass in place with 70s F dewpoints, and lack of capping, scattered areas of thunderstorms are likely throughout the period. Much of the activity will occur over TX and OK, where moderate instability is forecast. However, shear will be generally weak. Given the daily cycle of thunderstorms and resulting outflow boundaries across the entire region, predictability is too low to denote any concentrated severe areas. However, sporadic severe winds, perhaps isolated hail, cannot be ruled out from the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley from Saturday/D5 into Monday/D7. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may occur over parts of the Carolinas, and perhaps from western Montana into eastern Washington. ...Synopsis... An upper low will gradually weaken as it moves very slowly from CA into NV on Thursday, with a belt of stronger mid to high level winds from UT into ID, WA and OR, where minor height falls are expected late. To the east, weak upper ridging will remain over the Plains, with weak winds aloft. Meanwhile, an upper trough will move out of the Mid Atlantic, with weakening northwest flow over the Carolinas. At the surface, moisture will remain abundant from TX into the Southeast, south of a cold front extending roughly from parts of the mid/upper MS Valley to SC. This boundary will provide a focus for afternoon thunderstorms from NC into SC, but both shear and instability are forecast to remain marginal. To the west, weak low pressure will develop during the day from eastern WA into MT with strong heating. Forecast instability is a bit uncertain this far out given the pattern, though some models indicate hail potential should sufficient moisture develop into the region. Deep layer shear will be favorable for cellular development, but perhaps a bit south of where the greater thunderstorm probabilities are. Given these uncertainties, will defer to later outlook updates regarding any marginal risk potential in the eastern WA, northern ID, and western MT area. ..Jewell.. 05/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may occur over parts of the Carolinas, and perhaps from western Montana into eastern Washington. ...Synopsis... An upper low will gradually weaken as it moves very slowly from CA into NV on Thursday, with a belt of stronger mid to high level winds from UT into ID, WA and OR, where minor height falls are expected late. To the east, weak upper ridging will remain over the Plains, with weak winds aloft. Meanwhile, an upper trough will move out of the Mid Atlantic, with weakening northwest flow over the Carolinas. At the surface, moisture will remain abundant from TX into the Southeast, south of a cold front extending roughly from parts of the mid/upper MS Valley to SC. This boundary will provide a focus for afternoon thunderstorms from NC into SC, but both shear and instability are forecast to remain marginal. To the west, weak low pressure will develop during the day from eastern WA into MT with strong heating. Forecast instability is a bit uncertain this far out given the pattern, though some models indicate hail potential should sufficient moisture develop into the region. Deep layer shear will be favorable for cellular development, but perhaps a bit south of where the greater thunderstorm probabilities are. Given these uncertainties, will defer to later outlook updates regarding any marginal risk potential in the eastern WA, northern ID, and western MT area. ..Jewell.. 05/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may occur over parts of the Carolinas, and perhaps from western Montana into eastern Washington. ...Synopsis... An upper low will gradually weaken as it moves very slowly from CA into NV on Thursday, with a belt of stronger mid to high level winds from UT into ID, WA and OR, where minor height falls are expected late. To the east, weak upper ridging will remain over the Plains, with weak winds aloft. Meanwhile, an upper trough will move out of the Mid Atlantic, with weakening northwest flow over the Carolinas. At the surface, moisture will remain abundant from TX into the Southeast, south of a cold front extending roughly from parts of the mid/upper MS Valley to SC. This boundary will provide a focus for afternoon thunderstorms from NC into SC, but both shear and instability are forecast to remain marginal. To the west, weak low pressure will develop during the day from eastern WA into MT with strong heating. Forecast instability is a bit uncertain this far out given the pattern, though some models indicate hail potential should sufficient moisture develop into the region. Deep layer shear will be favorable for cellular development, but perhaps a bit south of where the greater thunderstorm probabilities are. Given these uncertainties, will defer to later outlook updates regarding any marginal risk potential in the eastern WA, northern ID, and western MT area. ..Jewell.. 05/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are expected primarily over parts of Virginia and Maryland Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few damaging gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... Height falls will occur over the northeastern states on Wednesday as a positive-tilt upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and toward the Mid Atlantic. This will flatten the upper ridge over the Southeast, with increasing westerlies aloft. At the surface, a trough will develop from southern New England into eastern VA, with strong daytime heating. Dewpoints in the upper 60s F will be common, aiding instability. Elsewhere, a deep upper low will be nearly stationary from central CA into western NV, with a surface trough developing during the afternoon from UT into southern ID and eastern OR. Strong heating within this trough may yield scattered thunderstorms moving northwestward across parts of ID into OR, with locally gusty winds. Farther north, instability may develop over WI and vicinity, near a southwestward-moving cold front and on the back side of the upper trough. Isolated strong cells cannot be ruled out with gusty winds. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of IN/OH/PA within a warm advection zone with westerly 850 mb winds. This activity will generally shift east/southeast during the day, as the air mass ahead of it destabilizes. Possible outflow from this activity, as well as surface convergence within the heating air mass should yield additional cells/clusters during the afternoon, moving east/southeast across VA, MD, and northern NC. Though lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep, high PWAT along with peak heating and increasing winds aloft will support storm longevity, with possible forward-propagating clusters. Increasing deep-layer shear may also support cellular storm mode. A few strong to severe wind gusts appear most likely during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Jewell.. 05/26/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are expected primarily over parts of Virginia and Maryland Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few damaging gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... Height falls will occur over the northeastern states on Wednesday as a positive-tilt upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and toward the Mid Atlantic. This will flatten the upper ridge over the Southeast, with increasing westerlies aloft. At the surface, a trough will develop from southern New England into eastern VA, with strong daytime heating. Dewpoints in the upper 60s F will be common, aiding instability. Elsewhere, a deep upper low will be nearly stationary from central CA into western NV, with a surface trough developing during the afternoon from UT into southern ID and eastern OR. Strong heating within this trough may yield scattered thunderstorms moving northwestward across parts of ID into OR, with locally gusty winds. Farther north, instability may develop over WI and vicinity, near a southwestward-moving cold front and on the back side of the upper trough. Isolated strong cells cannot be ruled out with gusty winds. ...Mid Atlantic Region... Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of IN/OH/PA within a warm advection zone with westerly 850 mb winds. This activity will generally shift east/southeast during the day, as the air mass ahead of it destabilizes. Possible outflow from this activity, as well as surface convergence within the heating air mass should yield additional cells/clusters during the afternoon, moving east/southeast across VA, MD, and northern NC. Though lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep, high PWAT along with peak heating and increasing winds aloft will support storm longevity, with possible forward-propagating clusters. Increasing deep-layer shear may also support cellular storm mode. A few strong to severe wind gusts appear most likely during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Jewell.. 05/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of west and southwest Texas. Isolated severe gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in parts of Kentucky. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Rockies. ...West and Southwest Texas... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across far west Texas. At the surface, a low will deepen near Big Bend as an axis of low-level moisture sharpens from the Rio Grande Valley northward into west Texas. Along this axis, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Near the moist axis, a north-to-south corridor of low-level convergence is forecast, along which thunderstorm development is expected by late morning. Storm coverage is forecast to expand and move eastward from west Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Along the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast hodographs are curved and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to above 200 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat. Cells are expected to merge into a line during the late afternoon, potentially increasing the threat for severe gusts. This line is forecast to move across southwest Texas during the early evening. ...Kentucky... South-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast to develop over far western Kentucky this afternoon. To the east of the low, moisture advection will increase surface dewpoints to near 70 F across much of Kentucky, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg. Within this unstable airmass, low-level flow over southern and central Kentucky will be backed to the south-southeast. This, combined with increasing low-level flow, will create curved hodographs. Forecast soundings at 21Z south of Lexington have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity increasing to 150 m2/s2 by mid afternoon, which should support a marginal tornado threat. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Upper Midwest... Mid-level flow will be westerly today across much of the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be in place from eastern North Dakota to northern Wisconsin. South of this front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass and move east-southeastward during the afternoon. MLCAPE in some areas are forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, with low-level lapse rates becoming steep. This will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly from southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin, where some models suggest instability will be stronger. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level low will move southward across northern California today. To the northwest of the low across the northern U.S., flow will be from the south-southeast. At the surface, a low will deepen across western Montana with upslope easterly flow located over much of western Montana. As surface heating takes place today, an axis of instability is forecast from northwest Montana extending southeastward into far northwest Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain and move northward along and near this axis of instability. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast to be the strongest. ..Broyles/Chalmers.. 05/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of west and southwest Texas. Isolated severe gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in parts of Kentucky. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Rockies. ...West and Southwest Texas... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across far west Texas. At the surface, a low will deepen near Big Bend as an axis of low-level moisture sharpens from the Rio Grande Valley northward into west Texas. Along this axis, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Near the moist axis, a north-to-south corridor of low-level convergence is forecast, along which thunderstorm development is expected by late morning. Storm coverage is forecast to expand and move eastward from west Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Along the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast hodographs are curved and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to above 200 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat. Cells are expected to merge into a line during the late afternoon, potentially increasing the threat for severe gusts. This line is forecast to move across southwest Texas during the early evening. ...Kentucky... South-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast to develop over far western Kentucky this afternoon. To the east of the low, moisture advection will increase surface dewpoints to near 70 F across much of Kentucky, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg. Within this unstable airmass, low-level flow over southern and central Kentucky will be backed to the south-southeast. This, combined with increasing low-level flow, will create curved hodographs. Forecast soundings at 21Z south of Lexington have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity increasing to 150 m2/s2 by mid afternoon, which should support a marginal tornado threat. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Upper Midwest... Mid-level flow will be westerly today across much of the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be in place from eastern North Dakota to northern Wisconsin. South of this front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass and move east-southeastward during the afternoon. MLCAPE in some areas are forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, with low-level lapse rates becoming steep. This will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly from southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin, where some models suggest instability will be stronger. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level low will move southward across northern California today. To the northwest of the low across the northern U.S., flow will be from the south-southeast. At the surface, a low will deepen across western Montana with upslope easterly flow located over much of western Montana. As surface heating takes place today, an axis of instability is forecast from northwest Montana extending southeastward into far northwest Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain and move northward along and near this axis of instability. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast to be the strongest. ..Broyles/Chalmers.. 05/26/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of west and southwest Texas. Isolated severe gusts and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in parts of Kentucky. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Rockies. ...West and Southwest Texas... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across far west Texas. At the surface, a low will deepen near Big Bend as an axis of low-level moisture sharpens from the Rio Grande Valley northward into west Texas. Along this axis, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Near the moist axis, a north-to-south corridor of low-level convergence is forecast, along which thunderstorm development is expected by late morning. Storm coverage is forecast to expand and move eastward from west Texas into southwest Texas this afternoon. Along the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range during the mid to late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense storms. In addition, forecast hodographs are curved and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to above 200 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat. Cells are expected to merge into a line during the late afternoon, potentially increasing the threat for severe gusts. This line is forecast to move across southwest Texas during the early evening. ...Kentucky... South-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast to develop over far western Kentucky this afternoon. To the east of the low, moisture advection will increase surface dewpoints to near 70 F across much of Kentucky, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg. Within this unstable airmass, low-level flow over southern and central Kentucky will be backed to the south-southeast. This, combined with increasing low-level flow, will create curved hodographs. Forecast soundings at 21Z south of Lexington have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity increasing to 150 m2/s2 by mid afternoon, which should support a marginal tornado threat. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Upper Midwest... Mid-level flow will be westerly today across much of the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will be in place from eastern North Dakota to northern Wisconsin. South of this front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass and move east-southeastward during the afternoon. MLCAPE in some areas are forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, with low-level lapse rates becoming steep. This will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly from southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin, where some models suggest instability will be stronger. ...Northern Rockies... A mid-level low will move southward across northern California today. To the northwest of the low across the northern U.S., flow will be from the south-southeast. At the surface, a low will deepen across western Montana with upslope easterly flow located over much of western Montana. As surface heating takes place today, an axis of instability is forecast from northwest Montana extending southeastward into far northwest Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain and move northward along and near this axis of instability. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast to be the strongest. ..Broyles/Chalmers.. 05/26/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z A nearly stationary upper level low will hover over the CA/Great Basin region through Day 2/Wednesday as an upper ridge will continue to reside across the central CONUS. Strengthening southerly flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients east of a persisting surface low will promote a fire weather threat for portions of the Southwest and Upper Colorado River Basin. Farther east, a weak shortwave is expected to eject across the central and southern Plains, bringing additional chances of appreciable precipitation to a drought-stressed landscape. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Broad southwesterly flow associated with the hovering upper low will sustain fire weather concerns for portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. Southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH reductions of 10-20% will promote Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions amid available dry fuels. ...Northeastern Montana... Prolonged lee surface troughing and increasing mid level flow should support gusty surface winds across eastern MT. However, recent guidance portrays increasing low-mid level moisture as flow transitions southeasterly. Modest surface RH of 30-40% may alleviate broader fire weather concerns, though elevated conditions may arise if moisture does not advect as far north as guidance depicts. Trends will be monitored for future outlook cycles. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0226 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D2/Tuesday as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the central CONUS. Weak upper troughing will also persist across the southern High/Great Plains. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop across the northern High Plains as a cold front progresses eastward across the Great Basin. Additional chances for wetting rainfall/thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains in association with a passing shortwave trough and across much of the Southeast. ...Northeastern Montana... Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee trough/strengthening surface low is expected across much of the northern High Plains on D2/Tuesday, with sustained surface winds of around 15-25 mph and occasional wind gusts up to 30 mph expected. Greater low-level moisture is forecast to remain displaced to the east across the Dakotas, with forecast guidance/soundings depicting deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles and RH reductions to near 15% across much of eastern/northeastern Montana. With dry fuels across much of northeastern Montana, these conditions are expected to support elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon. Consideration was given to a westward expansion of elevated highlights; however, uncertainty regarding the coverage/development of high-based convection in association with a northward shifting mid-level shortwave trough also increases with westward extent. Trends will be monitored for future outlook cycles. ...Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper-level trough shifts southward into the Great Basin on Tuesday, a deepening surface low will promote a strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the eastward progressing cold front. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected amid this strengthening gradient, with well-mixed boundary layer profiles supporting RH reductions to 15-20% (locally lower). Accelerating mid-level flow may also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph (perhaps higher in exposed, elevated terrain areas). With near critically dry fuels across the region, these conditions are expected to support a broad area of elevated fire weather concerns, with locally critical conditions possible in areas of drier fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z A nearly stationary upper level low will hover over the CA/Great Basin region through Day 2/Wednesday as an upper ridge will continue to reside across the central CONUS. Strengthening southerly flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients east of a persisting surface low will promote a fire weather threat for portions of the Southwest and Upper Colorado River Basin. Farther east, a weak shortwave is expected to eject across the central and southern Plains, bringing additional chances of appreciable precipitation to a drought-stressed landscape. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Broad southwesterly flow associated with the hovering upper low will sustain fire weather concerns for portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. Southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH reductions of 10-20% will promote Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions amid available dry fuels. ...Northeastern Montana... Prolonged lee surface troughing and increasing mid level flow should support gusty surface winds across eastern MT. However, recent guidance portrays increasing low-mid level moisture as flow transitions southeasterly. Modest surface RH of 30-40% may alleviate broader fire weather concerns, though elevated conditions may arise if moisture does not advect as far north as guidance depicts. Trends will be monitored for future outlook cycles. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0226 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D2/Tuesday as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the central CONUS. Weak upper troughing will also persist across the southern High/Great Plains. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop across the northern High Plains as a cold front progresses eastward across the Great Basin. Additional chances for wetting rainfall/thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains in association with a passing shortwave trough and across much of the Southeast. ...Northeastern Montana... Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee trough/strengthening surface low is expected across much of the northern High Plains on D2/Tuesday, with sustained surface winds of around 15-25 mph and occasional wind gusts up to 30 mph expected. Greater low-level moisture is forecast to remain displaced to the east across the Dakotas, with forecast guidance/soundings depicting deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles and RH reductions to near 15% across much of eastern/northeastern Montana. With dry fuels across much of northeastern Montana, these conditions are expected to support elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon. Consideration was given to a westward expansion of elevated highlights; however, uncertainty regarding the coverage/development of high-based convection in association with a northward shifting mid-level shortwave trough also increases with westward extent. Trends will be monitored for future outlook cycles. ...Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper-level trough shifts southward into the Great Basin on Tuesday, a deepening surface low will promote a strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the eastward progressing cold front. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected amid this strengthening gradient, with well-mixed boundary layer profiles supporting RH reductions to 15-20% (locally lower). Accelerating mid-level flow may also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph (perhaps higher in exposed, elevated terrain areas). With near critically dry fuels across the region, these conditions are expected to support a broad area of elevated fire weather concerns, with locally critical conditions possible in areas of drier fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z A nearly stationary upper level low will hover over the CA/Great Basin region through Day 2/Wednesday as an upper ridge will continue to reside across the central CONUS. Strengthening southerly flow aloft and tightening surface pressure gradients east of a persisting surface low will promote a fire weather threat for portions of the Southwest and Upper Colorado River Basin. Farther east, a weak shortwave is expected to eject across the central and southern Plains, bringing additional chances of appreciable precipitation to a drought-stressed landscape. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Broad southwesterly flow associated with the hovering upper low will sustain fire weather concerns for portions of the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. Southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH reductions of 10-20% will promote Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions amid available dry fuels. ...Northeastern Montana... Prolonged lee surface troughing and increasing mid level flow should support gusty surface winds across eastern MT. However, recent guidance portrays increasing low-mid level moisture as flow transitions southeasterly. Modest surface RH of 30-40% may alleviate broader fire weather concerns, though elevated conditions may arise if moisture does not advect as far north as guidance depicts. Trends will be monitored for future outlook cycles. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/26/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0226 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026/ ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D2/Tuesday as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the central CONUS. Weak upper troughing will also persist across the southern High/Great Plains. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop across the northern High Plains as a cold front progresses eastward across the Great Basin. Additional chances for wetting rainfall/thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains in association with a passing shortwave trough and across much of the Southeast. ...Northeastern Montana... Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee trough/strengthening surface low is expected across much of the northern High Plains on D2/Tuesday, with sustained surface winds of around 15-25 mph and occasional wind gusts up to 30 mph expected. Greater low-level moisture is forecast to remain displaced to the east across the Dakotas, with forecast guidance/soundings depicting deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles and RH reductions to near 15% across much of eastern/northeastern Montana. With dry fuels across much of northeastern Montana, these conditions are expected to support elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon. Consideration was given to a westward expansion of elevated highlights; however, uncertainty regarding the coverage/development of high-based convection in association with a northward shifting mid-level shortwave trough also increases with westward extent. Trends will be monitored for future outlook cycles. ...Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper-level trough shifts southward into the Great Basin on Tuesday, a deepening surface low will promote a strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the eastward progressing cold front. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected amid this strengthening gradient, with well-mixed boundary layer profiles supporting RH reductions to 15-20% (locally lower). Accelerating mid-level flow may also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph (perhaps higher in exposed, elevated terrain areas). With near critically dry fuels across the region, these conditions are expected to support a broad area of elevated fire weather concerns, with locally critical conditions possible in areas of drier fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more