MD 0863 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0863
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Areas affected...portions of north-central Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 262014Z - 262215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated hail
or damaging gusts. Storm organization will be limited and a WW is
unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 2010 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery
showed towering cumulus and initial thunderstorms deepening along a
frontal boundary across far eastern ND and north-central MN. Ample
heating is supporting weak destabilization along and south of the
frontal zone this afternoon. Deep-layer flow and effective shear are
quite weak suggesting little in the way of storm organization. The
multi cell storms amid relatively cool mid-level temperatures could
support occasional severe hail with the stronger updrafts. The
low-level air mass is also well-mixed with T/TD spread near 40
degrees F. The dry low-level may allow for stronger gusts with the
more robust downdrafts.
Current expectations are for storms to gradually intensify along the
front this afternoon. With little in the way of organization, the
severe threat is likely to be sporadic/limited, but focused where
any stronger storms can cluster and persist. Given the lack of
broader support, a WW is unlikely at this time.
..Lyons/Gleason.. 05/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 47559687 47529609 46999427 46359276 45719280 45499311
45459381 45589438 46039534 46639641 46969688 47199697
47559687
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
WW 244 SEVERE TSTM TX 261830Z - 270200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West-Central and South-Central Texas
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A mix of supercells and multicells should pose a threat
for both large hail and severe/damaging winds as thunderstorms
spread east-southeastward this afternoon and evening. A tornado or
two is also possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast
of San Angelo TX to 65 miles southeast of Del Rio TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28025.
...Gleason
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Northeastern Montana...
A similar synoptic setup as D1/Tuesday will carry over into
D2/Wednesday across the Northern Plains. An upper-low across the
Great Basin and associated surface trough across central MT will
promote strong southeasterly winds of 15-25 mph across the central
and northern High Plains Wednesday. High-based convection this
afternoon is expected across central and northeastern MT through
Tuesday evening. Rainfall will be minimal and confined to isolated
heavier rain cores, allowing drier fuels to remain largely
receptive. Despite some upper-level cloud cover and slightly cooler
temperatures, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will support RH
reductions of 15-20% across northeastern MT. Elevated Highlights
have been introduced to cover the enhanced fire weather concern.
...Great Basin...
Stronger south/southwest winds ahead of an upper-level low and
related surface low in northeastern NV/northwestern UT will affect
the eastern Great Basin, Upper CO River Basin and portions of the
Southwest. Sustained south to southwest winds of 20-25 mph (locally
30 mph in favorable terrain) and minimum RH of 10-20% will support
elevated to locally critical fire weather threat Tuesday afternoon.
Some trimming of existing elevated highlights was necessary across
central UT due to recent wetting rainfall leading to reduced fuel
receptiveness.
..Williams.. 05/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0226 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
A robust upper-level trough will shift southward into the Great
Basin on D2/Tuesday as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the
central CONUS. Weak upper troughing will also persist across the
southern High/Great Plains. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop
across the northern High Plains as a cold front progresses eastward
across the Great Basin. Additional chances for wetting
rainfall/thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains
in association with a passing shortwave trough and across much of
the Southeast.
...Northeastern Montana...
Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee
trough/strengthening surface low is expected across much of the
northern High Plains on D2/Tuesday, with sustained surface winds of
around 15-25 mph and occasional wind gusts up to 30 mph expected.
Greater low-level moisture is forecast to remain displaced to the
east across the Dakotas, with forecast guidance/soundings depicting
deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles and RH reductions to near
15% across much of eastern/northeastern Montana. With dry fuels
across much of northeastern Montana, these conditions are expected
to support elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns
Tuesday afternoon. Consideration was given to a westward expansion
of elevated highlights; however, uncertainty regarding the
coverage/development of high-based convection in association with a
northward shifting mid-level shortwave trough also increases with
westward extent. Trends will be monitored for future outlook cycles.
...Great Basin...
As the aforementioned upper-level trough shifts southward into the
Great Basin on Tuesday, a deepening surface low will promote a
strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the eastward
progressing cold front. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of
20-30 mph are expected amid this strengthening gradient, with
well-mixed boundary layer profiles supporting RH reductions to
15-20% (locally lower). Accelerating mid-level flow may also support
occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph (perhaps higher in exposed,
elevated terrain areas). With near critically dry fuels across the
region, these conditions are expected to support a broad area of
elevated fire weather concerns, with locally critical conditions
possible in areas of drier fine fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Northeastern Montana...
A similar synoptic setup as D1/Tuesday will carry over into
D2/Wednesday across the Northern Plains. An upper-low across the
Great Basin and associated surface trough across central MT will
promote strong southeasterly winds of 15-25 mph across the central
and northern High Plains Wednesday. High-based convection this
afternoon is expected across central and northeastern MT through
Tuesday evening. Rainfall will be minimal and confined to isolated
heavier rain cores, allowing drier fuels to remain largely
receptive. Despite some upper-level cloud cover and slightly cooler
temperatures, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will support RH
reductions of 15-20% across northeastern MT. Elevated Highlights
have been introduced to cover the enhanced fire weather concern.
...Great Basin...
Stronger south/southwest winds ahead of an upper-level low and
related surface low in northeastern NV/northwestern UT will affect
the eastern Great Basin, Upper CO River Basin and portions of the
Southwest. Sustained south to southwest winds of 20-25 mph (locally
30 mph in favorable terrain) and minimum RH of 10-20% will support
elevated to locally critical fire weather threat Tuesday afternoon.
Some trimming of existing elevated highlights was necessary across
central UT due to recent wetting rainfall leading to reduced fuel
receptiveness.
..Williams.. 05/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0226 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026/
...Synopsis...
A robust upper-level trough will shift southward into the Great
Basin on D2/Tuesday as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the
central CONUS. Weak upper troughing will also persist across the
southern High/Great Plains. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop
across the northern High Plains as a cold front progresses eastward
across the Great Basin. Additional chances for wetting
rainfall/thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains
in association with a passing shortwave trough and across much of
the Southeast.
...Northeastern Montana...
Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee
trough/strengthening surface low is expected across much of the
northern High Plains on D2/Tuesday, with sustained surface winds of
around 15-25 mph and occasional wind gusts up to 30 mph expected.
Greater low-level moisture is forecast to remain displaced to the
east across the Dakotas, with forecast guidance/soundings depicting
deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles and RH reductions to near
15% across much of eastern/northeastern Montana. With dry fuels
across much of northeastern Montana, these conditions are expected
to support elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns
Tuesday afternoon. Consideration was given to a westward expansion
of elevated highlights; however, uncertainty regarding the
coverage/development of high-based convection in association with a
northward shifting mid-level shortwave trough also increases with
westward extent. Trends will be monitored for future outlook cycles.
...Great Basin...
As the aforementioned upper-level trough shifts southward into the
Great Basin on Tuesday, a deepening surface low will promote a
strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the eastward
progressing cold front. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of
20-30 mph are expected amid this strengthening gradient, with
well-mixed boundary layer profiles supporting RH reductions to
15-20% (locally lower). Accelerating mid-level flow may also support
occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph (perhaps higher in exposed,
elevated terrain areas). With near critically dry fuels across the
region, these conditions are expected to support a broad area of
elevated fire weather concerns, with locally critical conditions
possible in areas of drier fine fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large
hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes may occur.
...20Z Update...
Much of the forecast remains generally on track. Across central into
southern Texas, Slight risk probabilities were trimmed from the west
to account for the passage of an ongoing MCS. Severe probabilities
were increased into deep south Texas for the possibility of
preceding supercells developing ahead of the eastward-meandering MCS
this evening, which may be accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.
Finally, 5 percent wind probabilities were expanded eastward across
MT, and farther west from the Midwest into ND, to account for trends
in both observations and the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 05/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026/
...Texas...
Ongoing thunderstorms late this morning across west TX are being
aided by ascent associated with a weak mid-level trough over the
southern High Plains. While an isolated hail/wind threat may persist
with this activity in the short term, expectations are for an
increasing severe risk to materialize this afternoon downstream
across parts of south-central TX. Recent surface observations and
area VWPs show modest low-level east-southeasterly flow occurring
across this region, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s
to low 70s. Some clearing/cloud breaks are noted on latest visible
satellite imagery, and filtered daytime heating of this moist
low-level airmass combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse
rates (reference 12Z observed DRT sounding) will aid in the
development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid afternoon.
While low-level flow should remain modest, strong veering of the
winds with height through mid/upper levels and a gradual increase in
magnitude associated with the weak mid-level trough will support
around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the narrow warm sector. A
mix of supercells and multicell clusters should spread from northern
Mexico/west TX into southwest/south-central TX through the afternoon
and early evening. Large hail will be possible with any sustained
supercells, while severe/damaging winds may occur with clusters as
low-level lapse rates become steepened with continued daytime
heating. The tornado threat remains less clear, as modest low-level
flow and muted effective SRH suggest low-level mesocyclones may
struggle. Still, some risk for a couple of tornadoes remains
apparent across a small part of southwest TX. Severe probabilities
have been adjusted to account for both ongoing convection and the
potential for one or more clusters with some wind threat to persist
this evening/overnight across south-central into coastal TX.
...Upper Midwest...
A weak/dissipating MCV will move into parts of the Upper Midwest
today, as modest westerly mid-level flow continues to the north of a
mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the northern Plains into
IA. A weak surface front will remain draped generally west to east
from eastern ND into central MN/WI through the day. South of this
front, diurnal heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass will
support moderate instability by mid afternoon. While large-scale
ascent is expected to remain fairly weak/nebulous, the remnant MCV
may foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon and early evening along/near the front. Around 20-30 kt of
deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization.
Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur with loosely
organized multicells and marginal supercell structures, before this
activity eventually weakens this evening with the loss of daytime
heating.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
A closed upper low over western OR/northern CA this morning will
continue to move slowly southward through the period. A belt of
modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will exist of parts of
the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. Even though low-level moisture will remain
limited, the boundary layer is forecast to become very well mixed
with daytime heating. High-based showers/thunderstorms that develop
across this region will spread northward through the afternoon and
evening, and may pose an isolated threat for severe gusts and
perhaps some hail.
...Ohio Valley/Southeast...
A broad zone of 20-30 kt south-southwesterly mid-level flow will
likely remain over much of the Southeast and parts of the OH Valley
today. 12Z observed soundings from across these regions show poor
lapse rates and generally saturated profiles aloft, which should
temper the degree of instability which develops this afternoon with
filtered daytime heating. Due to the expected thermodynamic
limitations, it remains unclear how productive thunderstorms will be
in producing damaging winds. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of
producing occasional strong to locally damaging winds appear
possible across a broad area of the lower/mid OH Valley into much of
the Southeast, especially where low-level lapse rates can become at
least modestly steepened. However, a more focused corridor for a
tornado and damaging winds may exist this afternoon across KY, in
closer proximity to a weak mid-level perturbation noted on visible
satellite imagery over the Mid-South and a subtle surface boundary.
For now, have opted to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of
KY, but additional expansions may occur across parts of the
Southeast if mesoscale corridors of isolated damaging wind potential
can be delineated.
...Northern Maine...
A mid-level trough with attendant strong (40-50+ kt) westerly jet
will move eastward across Quebec today, and will impact parts of ME
this afternoon/evening. Most guidance suggests that a band of
thunderstorms will spread quickly eastward across northern ME later
today in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment.
Isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with this activity.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large
hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes may occur.
...20Z Update...
Much of the forecast remains generally on track. Across central into
southern Texas, Slight risk probabilities were trimmed from the west
to account for the passage of an ongoing MCS. Severe probabilities
were increased into deep south Texas for the possibility of
preceding supercells developing ahead of the eastward-meandering MCS
this evening, which may be accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat.
Finally, 5 percent wind probabilities were expanded eastward across
MT, and farther west from the Midwest into ND, to account for trends
in both observations and the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 05/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026/
...Texas...
Ongoing thunderstorms late this morning across west TX are being
aided by ascent associated with a weak mid-level trough over the
southern High Plains. While an isolated hail/wind threat may persist
with this activity in the short term, expectations are for an
increasing severe risk to materialize this afternoon downstream
across parts of south-central TX. Recent surface observations and
area VWPs show modest low-level east-southeasterly flow occurring
across this region, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s
to low 70s. Some clearing/cloud breaks are noted on latest visible
satellite imagery, and filtered daytime heating of this moist
low-level airmass combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse
rates (reference 12Z observed DRT sounding) will aid in the
development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid afternoon.
While low-level flow should remain modest, strong veering of the
winds with height through mid/upper levels and a gradual increase in
magnitude associated with the weak mid-level trough will support
around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the narrow warm sector. A
mix of supercells and multicell clusters should spread from northern
Mexico/west TX into southwest/south-central TX through the afternoon
and early evening. Large hail will be possible with any sustained
supercells, while severe/damaging winds may occur with clusters as
low-level lapse rates become steepened with continued daytime
heating. The tornado threat remains less clear, as modest low-level
flow and muted effective SRH suggest low-level mesocyclones may
struggle. Still, some risk for a couple of tornadoes remains
apparent across a small part of southwest TX. Severe probabilities
have been adjusted to account for both ongoing convection and the
potential for one or more clusters with some wind threat to persist
this evening/overnight across south-central into coastal TX.
...Upper Midwest...
A weak/dissipating MCV will move into parts of the Upper Midwest
today, as modest westerly mid-level flow continues to the north of a
mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the northern Plains into
IA. A weak surface front will remain draped generally west to east
from eastern ND into central MN/WI through the day. South of this
front, diurnal heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass will
support moderate instability by mid afternoon. While large-scale
ascent is expected to remain fairly weak/nebulous, the remnant MCV
may foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon and early evening along/near the front. Around 20-30 kt of
deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization.
Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur with loosely
organized multicells and marginal supercell structures, before this
activity eventually weakens this evening with the loss of daytime
heating.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
A closed upper low over western OR/northern CA this morning will
continue to move slowly southward through the period. A belt of
modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will exist of parts of
the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. Even though low-level moisture will remain
limited, the boundary layer is forecast to become very well mixed
with daytime heating. High-based showers/thunderstorms that develop
across this region will spread northward through the afternoon and
evening, and may pose an isolated threat for severe gusts and
perhaps some hail.
...Ohio Valley/Southeast...
A broad zone of 20-30 kt south-southwesterly mid-level flow will
likely remain over much of the Southeast and parts of the OH Valley
today. 12Z observed soundings from across these regions show poor
lapse rates and generally saturated profiles aloft, which should
temper the degree of instability which develops this afternoon with
filtered daytime heating. Due to the expected thermodynamic
limitations, it remains unclear how productive thunderstorms will be
in producing damaging winds. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of
producing occasional strong to locally damaging winds appear
possible across a broad area of the lower/mid OH Valley into much of
the Southeast, especially where low-level lapse rates can become at
least modestly steepened. However, a more focused corridor for a
tornado and damaging winds may exist this afternoon across KY, in
closer proximity to a weak mid-level perturbation noted on visible
satellite imagery over the Mid-South and a subtle surface boundary.
For now, have opted to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of
KY, but additional expansions may occur across parts of the
Southeast if mesoscale corridors of isolated damaging wind potential
can be delineated.
...Northern Maine...
A mid-level trough with attendant strong (40-50+ kt) westerly jet
will move eastward across Quebec today, and will impact parts of ME
this afternoon/evening. Most guidance suggests that a band of
thunderstorms will spread quickly eastward across northern ME later
today in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment.
Isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with this activity.
Read more
MD 0861 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
Mesoscale Discussion 0861
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Areas affected...Texas Hill Country
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 261728Z - 261930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and severe gusts will become more probable into
the afternoon. Very-large hail and a tornado or two would be
possible with any sustained supercells. A watch will eventually be
needed for parts of the Hill Country.
DISCUSSION...A line of convection continues to move eastward out of
the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend regions. Morning sounding data from Del Rio
showed a low-level dry pocket. Dewpoints had initially mixed down
into the low 60s F with the onset of daytime heating, but richer
moisture continues to advect northwestward into the Hill Country.
The current expectation is for this convection to gradually increase
as surface heating continues and the low levels moisten through the
afternoon. The strongest activity will likely remain south of the
I-10 corridor given modestly drier outflow to the north and greater
buoyancy and effective shear closer to the Rio Grande. Steep
mid-level lapse rates will promote large to very large hail,
particularly with supercells. That said, shear is somewhat marginal
for supercells and linear modes will tend to dominate. The risk for
tornadoes is nonzero, but will depend on a supercell mode near the
Rio Grande Valley (reference the KDFX VAD). With time, a greater
severe wind threat should develop as convection grows upscale. A
watch will eventually be needed, but timing of a ramp up in storm
intensity remains the primary uncertainty.
..Wendt/Gleason.. 05/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29450140 29500202 29580222 29830227 30220216 30760186
30970152 30910094 30669970 30259946 29589975 28950074
29030083 29450140
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western
Montana, northern Idaho, into central Oregon/Washington.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper ridge will be present on Thursday over the central
U.S., with an upper low over CA and an upper trough over the
northeast states. Scattered thunderstorms will affect much of the
southeast, southern and central Plains, and northwest regions.
...OR/WA/ID/MT...
One area of concern for the potential of severe storms will be
across the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest states. Models
depict one or more shortwave troughs rotating around the CA upper
low, providing ascent and strengthening wind fields across parts of
eastern OR/WA, northern ID, and western MT. Confidence is rising
that a zone of sufficient instability/shear will develop to support
strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Large hail and damaging
winds appear possible with the strongest storms.
..Hart.. 05/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western
Montana, northern Idaho, into central Oregon/Washington.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper ridge will be present on Thursday over the central
U.S., with an upper low over CA and an upper trough over the
northeast states. Scattered thunderstorms will affect much of the
southeast, southern and central Plains, and northwest regions.
...OR/WA/ID/MT...
One area of concern for the potential of severe storms will be
across the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest states. Models
depict one or more shortwave troughs rotating around the CA upper
low, providing ascent and strengthening wind fields across parts of
eastern OR/WA, northern ID, and western MT. Confidence is rising
that a zone of sufficient instability/shear will develop to support
strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Large hail and damaging
winds appear possible with the strongest storms.
..Hart.. 05/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western
Montana, northern Idaho, into central Oregon/Washington.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper ridge will be present on Thursday over the central
U.S., with an upper low over CA and an upper trough over the
northeast states. Scattered thunderstorms will affect much of the
southeast, southern and central Plains, and northwest regions.
...OR/WA/ID/MT...
One area of concern for the potential of severe storms will be
across the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest states. Models
depict one or more shortwave troughs rotating around the CA upper
low, providing ascent and strengthening wind fields across parts of
eastern OR/WA, northern ID, and western MT. Confidence is rising
that a zone of sufficient instability/shear will develop to support
strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Large hail and damaging
winds appear possible with the strongest storms.
..Hart.. 05/26/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts may occur on Wednesday
over parts of the Mid Atlantic Region.
...Mid Atlantic Region...
A strong shortwave trough will track southeastward across Ontario on
Wednesday, with mid-level height falls and cooling aloft occurring
over much of the northeast states. At the surface, the primary
surface boundary will extend from southern OH across WV/MD into
VA/DE. A warm/humid and moderately unstable air mass will be
present along and south of the boundary, promoting the development
of scattered thunderstorms from eastern KY to the coast. Storms
will track southeastward through the afternoon and early evening
through an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and moderately
strong westerly flow above the boundary layer. This would support a
risk of damaging wind gusts in the more organized cells/clusters.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may also form over the higher
terrain of western NC with a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds.
...TX Panhandle...
A shortwave trough currently over eastern NM will continue to rotate
northward across the Plains on Wednesday, with the upper thermal
trough present over eastern CO/western KS and the TX/OK Panhandles.
A convectively enhanced surface boundary is expected to lie across
the northern TX panhandle by afternoon, with strong heating
occurring to the south of front. This should provide sufficient
destabilization for widely scattered thunderstorm development by
late afternoon. Despite relatively weak vertical shear, steep
mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft suggest a risk of
multicell storms capable of large hail.
..Hart.. 05/26/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts may occur on Wednesday
over parts of the Mid Atlantic Region.
...Mid Atlantic Region...
A strong shortwave trough will track southeastward across Ontario on
Wednesday, with mid-level height falls and cooling aloft occurring
over much of the northeast states. At the surface, the primary
surface boundary will extend from southern OH across WV/MD into
VA/DE. A warm/humid and moderately unstable air mass will be
present along and south of the boundary, promoting the development
of scattered thunderstorms from eastern KY to the coast. Storms
will track southeastward through the afternoon and early evening
through an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and moderately
strong westerly flow above the boundary layer. This would support a
risk of damaging wind gusts in the more organized cells/clusters.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may also form over the higher
terrain of western NC with a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds.
...TX Panhandle...
A shortwave trough currently over eastern NM will continue to rotate
northward across the Plains on Wednesday, with the upper thermal
trough present over eastern CO/western KS and the TX/OK Panhandles.
A convectively enhanced surface boundary is expected to lie across
the northern TX panhandle by afternoon, with strong heating
occurring to the south of front. This should provide sufficient
destabilization for widely scattered thunderstorm development by
late afternoon. Despite relatively weak vertical shear, steep
mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft suggest a risk of
multicell storms capable of large hail.
..Hart.. 05/26/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large
hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes may occur.
...Texas...
Ongoing thunderstorms late this morning across west TX are being
aided by ascent associated with a weak mid-level trough over the
southern High Plains. While an isolated hail/wind threat may persist
with this activity in the short term, expectations are for an
increasing severe risk to materialize this afternoon downstream
across parts of south-central TX. Recent surface observations and
area VWPs show modest low-level east-southeasterly flow occurring
across this region, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s
to low 70s. Some clearing/cloud breaks are noted on latest visible
satellite imagery, and filtered daytime heating of this moist
low-level airmass combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse
rates (reference 12Z observed DRT sounding) will aid in the
development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid afternoon.
While low-level flow should remain modest, strong veering of the
winds with height through mid/upper levels and a gradual increase in
magnitude associated with the weak mid-level trough will support
around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the narrow warm sector. A
mix of supercells and multicell clusters should spread from northern
Mexico/west TX into southwest/south-central TX through the afternoon
and early evening. Large hail will be possible with any sustained
supercells, while severe/damaging winds may occur with clusters as
low-level lapse rates become steepened with continued daytime
heating. The tornado threat remains less clear, as modest low-level
flow and muted effective SRH suggest low-level mesocyclones may
struggle. Still, some risk for a couple of tornadoes remains
apparent across a small part of southwest TX. Severe probabilities
have been adjusted to account for both ongoing convection and the
potential for one or more clusters with some wind threat to persist
this evening/overnight across south-central into coastal TX.
...Upper Midwest...
A weak/dissipating MCV will move into parts of the Upper Midwest
today, as modest westerly mid-level flow continues to the north of a
mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the northern Plains into
IA. A weak surface front will remain draped generally west to east
from eastern ND into central MN/WI through the day. South of this
front, diurnal heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass will
support moderate instability by mid afternoon. While large-scale
ascent is expected to remain fairly weak/nebulous, the remnant MCV
may foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon and early evening along/near the front. Around 20-30 kt of
deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization.
Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur with loosely
organized multicells and marginal supercell structures, before this
activity eventually weakens this evening with the loss of daytime
heating.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
A closed upper low over western OR/northern CA this morning will
continue to move slowly southward through the period. A belt of
modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will exist of parts of
the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. Even though low-level moisture will remain
limited, the boundary layer is forecast to become very well mixed
with daytime heating. High-based showers/thunderstorms that develop
across this region will spread northward through the afternoon and
evening, and may pose an isolated threat for severe gusts and
perhaps some hail.
...Ohio Valley/Southeast...
A broad zone of 20-30 kt south-southwesterly mid-level flow will
likely remain over much of the Southeast and parts of the OH Valley
today. 12Z observed soundings from across these regions show poor
lapse rates and generally saturated profiles aloft, which should
temper the degree of instability which develops this afternoon with
filtered daytime heating. Due to the expected thermodynamic
limitations, it remains unclear how productive thunderstorms will be
in producing damaging winds. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of
producing occasional strong to locally damaging winds appear
possible across a broad area of the lower/mid OH Valley into much of
the Southeast, especially where low-level lapse rates can become at
least modestly steepened. However, a more focused corridor for a
tornado and damaging winds may exist this afternoon across KY, in
closer proximity to a weak mid-level perturbation noted on visible
satellite imagery over the Mid-South and a subtle surface boundary.
For now, have opted to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of
KY, but additional expansions may occur across parts of the
Southeast if mesoscale corridors of isolated damaging wind potential
can be delineated.
...Northern Maine...
A mid-level trough with attendant strong (40-50+ kt) westerly jet
will move eastward across Quebec today, and will impact parts of ME
this afternoon/evening. Most guidance suggests that a band of
thunderstorms will spread quickly eastward across northern ME later
today in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment.
Isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with this activity.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/26/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large
hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes may occur.
...Texas...
Ongoing thunderstorms late this morning across west TX are being
aided by ascent associated with a weak mid-level trough over the
southern High Plains. While an isolated hail/wind threat may persist
with this activity in the short term, expectations are for an
increasing severe risk to materialize this afternoon downstream
across parts of south-central TX. Recent surface observations and
area VWPs show modest low-level east-southeasterly flow occurring
across this region, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s
to low 70s. Some clearing/cloud breaks are noted on latest visible
satellite imagery, and filtered daytime heating of this moist
low-level airmass combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse
rates (reference 12Z observed DRT sounding) will aid in the
development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid afternoon.
While low-level flow should remain modest, strong veering of the
winds with height through mid/upper levels and a gradual increase in
magnitude associated with the weak mid-level trough will support
around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the narrow warm sector. A
mix of supercells and multicell clusters should spread from northern
Mexico/west TX into southwest/south-central TX through the afternoon
and early evening. Large hail will be possible with any sustained
supercells, while severe/damaging winds may occur with clusters as
low-level lapse rates become steepened with continued daytime
heating. The tornado threat remains less clear, as modest low-level
flow and muted effective SRH suggest low-level mesocyclones may
struggle. Still, some risk for a couple of tornadoes remains
apparent across a small part of southwest TX. Severe probabilities
have been adjusted to account for both ongoing convection and the
potential for one or more clusters with some wind threat to persist
this evening/overnight across south-central into coastal TX.
...Upper Midwest...
A weak/dissipating MCV will move into parts of the Upper Midwest
today, as modest westerly mid-level flow continues to the north of a
mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the northern Plains into
IA. A weak surface front will remain draped generally west to east
from eastern ND into central MN/WI through the day. South of this
front, diurnal heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass will
support moderate instability by mid afternoon. While large-scale
ascent is expected to remain fairly weak/nebulous, the remnant MCV
may foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon and early evening along/near the front. Around 20-30 kt of
deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization.
Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur with loosely
organized multicells and marginal supercell structures, before this
activity eventually weakens this evening with the loss of daytime
heating.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
A closed upper low over western OR/northern CA this morning will
continue to move slowly southward through the period. A belt of
modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will exist of parts of
the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. Even though low-level moisture will remain
limited, the boundary layer is forecast to become very well mixed
with daytime heating. High-based showers/thunderstorms that develop
across this region will spread northward through the afternoon and
evening, and may pose an isolated threat for severe gusts and
perhaps some hail.
...Ohio Valley/Southeast...
A broad zone of 20-30 kt south-southwesterly mid-level flow will
likely remain over much of the Southeast and parts of the OH Valley
today. 12Z observed soundings from across these regions show poor
lapse rates and generally saturated profiles aloft, which should
temper the degree of instability which develops this afternoon with
filtered daytime heating. Due to the expected thermodynamic
limitations, it remains unclear how productive thunderstorms will be
in producing damaging winds. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of
producing occasional strong to locally damaging winds appear
possible across a broad area of the lower/mid OH Valley into much of
the Southeast, especially where low-level lapse rates can become at
least modestly steepened. However, a more focused corridor for a
tornado and damaging winds may exist this afternoon across KY, in
closer proximity to a weak mid-level perturbation noted on visible
satellite imagery over the Mid-South and a subtle surface boundary.
For now, have opted to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of
KY, but additional expansions may occur across parts of the
Southeast if mesoscale corridors of isolated damaging wind potential
can be delineated.
...Northern Maine...
A mid-level trough with attendant strong (40-50+ kt) westerly jet
will move eastward across Quebec today, and will impact parts of ME
this afternoon/evening. Most guidance suggests that a band of
thunderstorms will spread quickly eastward across northern ME later
today in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment.
Isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with this activity.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/26/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of southwest into south-central Texas. Large
hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes may occur.
...Texas...
Ongoing thunderstorms late this morning across west TX are being
aided by ascent associated with a weak mid-level trough over the
southern High Plains. While an isolated hail/wind threat may persist
with this activity in the short term, expectations are for an
increasing severe risk to materialize this afternoon downstream
across parts of south-central TX. Recent surface observations and
area VWPs show modest low-level east-southeasterly flow occurring
across this region, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s
to low 70s. Some clearing/cloud breaks are noted on latest visible
satellite imagery, and filtered daytime heating of this moist
low-level airmass combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse
rates (reference 12Z observed DRT sounding) will aid in the
development of moderate to locally strong MLCAPE by mid afternoon.
While low-level flow should remain modest, strong veering of the
winds with height through mid/upper levels and a gradual increase in
magnitude associated with the weak mid-level trough will support
around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear across the narrow warm sector. A
mix of supercells and multicell clusters should spread from northern
Mexico/west TX into southwest/south-central TX through the afternoon
and early evening. Large hail will be possible with any sustained
supercells, while severe/damaging winds may occur with clusters as
low-level lapse rates become steepened with continued daytime
heating. The tornado threat remains less clear, as modest low-level
flow and muted effective SRH suggest low-level mesocyclones may
struggle. Still, some risk for a couple of tornadoes remains
apparent across a small part of southwest TX. Severe probabilities
have been adjusted to account for both ongoing convection and the
potential for one or more clusters with some wind threat to persist
this evening/overnight across south-central into coastal TX.
...Upper Midwest...
A weak/dissipating MCV will move into parts of the Upper Midwest
today, as modest westerly mid-level flow continues to the north of a
mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over the northern Plains into
IA. A weak surface front will remain draped generally west to east
from eastern ND into central MN/WI through the day. South of this
front, diurnal heating of a seasonably moist low-level airmass will
support moderate instability by mid afternoon. While large-scale
ascent is expected to remain fairly weak/nebulous, the remnant MCV
may foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development this
afternoon and early evening along/near the front. Around 20-30 kt of
deep-layer shear should be sufficient for some updraft organization.
Isolated large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur with loosely
organized multicells and marginal supercell structures, before this
activity eventually weakens this evening with the loss of daytime
heating.
...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
A closed upper low over western OR/northern CA this morning will
continue to move slowly southward through the period. A belt of
modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will exist of parts of
the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. Even though low-level moisture will remain
limited, the boundary layer is forecast to become very well mixed
with daytime heating. High-based showers/thunderstorms that develop
across this region will spread northward through the afternoon and
evening, and may pose an isolated threat for severe gusts and
perhaps some hail.
...Ohio Valley/Southeast...
A broad zone of 20-30 kt south-southwesterly mid-level flow will
likely remain over much of the Southeast and parts of the OH Valley
today. 12Z observed soundings from across these regions show poor
lapse rates and generally saturated profiles aloft, which should
temper the degree of instability which develops this afternoon with
filtered daytime heating. Due to the expected thermodynamic
limitations, it remains unclear how productive thunderstorms will be
in producing damaging winds. Water-loaded downdrafts capable of
producing occasional strong to locally damaging winds appear
possible across a broad area of the lower/mid OH Valley into much of
the Southeast, especially where low-level lapse rates can become at
least modestly steepened. However, a more focused corridor for a
tornado and damaging winds may exist this afternoon across KY, in
closer proximity to a weak mid-level perturbation noted on visible
satellite imagery over the Mid-South and a subtle surface boundary.
For now, have opted to expand the Marginal Risk to include more of
KY, but additional expansions may occur across parts of the
Southeast if mesoscale corridors of isolated damaging wind potential
can be delineated.
...Northern Maine...
A mid-level trough with attendant strong (40-50+ kt) westerly jet
will move eastward across Quebec today, and will impact parts of ME
this afternoon/evening. Most guidance suggests that a band of
thunderstorms will spread quickly eastward across northern ME later
today in a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment.
Isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with this activity.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/26/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 261700Z - 271200Z
...Northwest Arizona...
A vigorous upper low centered over northern CA and associated 997 mb
surface low in NV will bring enhanced south/southwest flow ahead of
a cold front to the eastern half of the Great Basin and parts of the
Desert Southwest today. Elevated fire weather conditions including
south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity as low as
15% will affect much of eastern NV, western UT into far northwestern
AZ. Recent rainfall over portions of the Mogollon Rim and northwest
AZ will have a mitigating effect on fuel receptivity today,
necessitating a trimming of Elevated Highlights from this area.
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. Please see
previous discussion below for more details.
..Williams.. 05/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
A robust upper level low will shift southward into the Great Basin
as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the central CONUS. Weak
upper troughing will also persist across the southern High Plains.
Meanwhile, a surface low will develop across the northern High
Plains as a cold front progresses eastward across the Great Basin.
Additional chances for wetting rainfall/thunderstorms are expected
across south-central Texas in association with a passing shortwave
trough and across much of the Southeast.
...Great Basin...
Southwesterly flow aloft and a deepening surface low will promote a
strengthening surface pressure gradient across the region. Ahead of
an eastward progressing cold front, sustained southwesterly surface
winds of 20-30 mph are expected and a deeply mixed and dry boundary
layer will support RH reductions of 15-20%. These conditions will
promote an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat amid
cured/drying fine fuels, primarily in lower elevation/mid-slope
areas. Only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights
based on recent guidance.
...Northeastern Montana and Extreme Western North Dakota...
As the upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest progresses
southeastward towards the Great Basin, pronounced lee surface trough
development is expected across central MT. As a result,
southeasterly winds will accelerate to 15-20 mph across much of the
northern High Plains, while limited low-level moisture return will
support RH reductions to 15-20% during peak afternoon heating across
eastern MT. Delayed green up and existing dry fuels align with these
dry and breezy conditions, maintaining Elevated fire weather
highlights. Afternoon heating and resultant instability may support
isolated thunderstorm development along far southern and western MT.
Forecast soundings depict a prominent dry sub-cloud layer and PWATs
of 0.5-0.8", allowing some threat of dry thunderstorms to evolve.
However, sufficient green-up and less receptive fuels may otherwise
mitigate a broader IsoDryT threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 261700Z - 271200Z
...Northwest Arizona...
A vigorous upper low centered over northern CA and associated 997 mb
surface low in NV will bring enhanced south/southwest flow ahead of
a cold front to the eastern half of the Great Basin and parts of the
Desert Southwest today. Elevated fire weather conditions including
south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph and relative humidity as low as
15% will affect much of eastern NV, western UT into far northwestern
AZ. Recent rainfall over portions of the Mogollon Rim and northwest
AZ will have a mitigating effect on fuel receptivity today,
necessitating a trimming of Elevated Highlights from this area.
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. Please see
previous discussion below for more details.
..Williams.. 05/26/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026/
...Synopsis...
A robust upper level low will shift southward into the Great Basin
as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the central CONUS. Weak
upper troughing will also persist across the southern High Plains.
Meanwhile, a surface low will develop across the northern High
Plains as a cold front progresses eastward across the Great Basin.
Additional chances for wetting rainfall/thunderstorms are expected
across south-central Texas in association with a passing shortwave
trough and across much of the Southeast.
...Great Basin...
Southwesterly flow aloft and a deepening surface low will promote a
strengthening surface pressure gradient across the region. Ahead of
an eastward progressing cold front, sustained southwesterly surface
winds of 20-30 mph are expected and a deeply mixed and dry boundary
layer will support RH reductions of 15-20%. These conditions will
promote an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat amid
cured/drying fine fuels, primarily in lower elevation/mid-slope
areas. Only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights
based on recent guidance.
...Northeastern Montana and Extreme Western North Dakota...
As the upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest progresses
southeastward towards the Great Basin, pronounced lee surface trough
development is expected across central MT. As a result,
southeasterly winds will accelerate to 15-20 mph across much of the
northern High Plains, while limited low-level moisture return will
support RH reductions to 15-20% during peak afternoon heating across
eastern MT. Delayed green up and existing dry fuels align with these
dry and breezy conditions, maintaining Elevated fire weather
highlights. Afternoon heating and resultant instability may support
isolated thunderstorm development along far southern and western MT.
Forecast soundings depict a prominent dry sub-cloud layer and PWATs
of 0.5-0.8", allowing some threat of dry thunderstorms to evolve.
However, sufficient green-up and less receptive fuels may otherwise
mitigate a broader IsoDryT threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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