Storm Prediction Center

MD 1606 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1606 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...southern/central Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121949Z - 122145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon into this evening across parts of southern/central Arizona. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted in visible satellite imagery across parts of southeast AZ, with ongoing thunderstorms further north along the Mogollon Rim as of 1945 UTC. Steep midlevel lapse rates and abundant midlevel moisture are supporting MLCAPE values up to around 1000 J/kg. Continued destabilization is expected over the next few hours and additional thunderstorm development is expected over higher terrain. Midlevel easterly flow around 20-30 kts will support convection moving off the higher terrain and across the lower deserts through evening. Organized clusters may produce isolated strong to severe gusts to 80 mph. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... LAT...LON 34421234 33821111 33231018 32270975 31730979 30910988 31081108 31271234 32341312 33201350 34221351 34521292 34421234 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

MD 1604 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1604 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of Central and South Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121914Z - 122115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Some risk for isolated damaging wind gusts is spreading southward into Central Florida. A conditional risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail exists farther south across South Florida. DISCUSSION...An ongoing cluster of loosely organized thunderstorms has continued to spread southward across portions of Central Florida over the past 1-2 hours and has recently produced a measured 41 mph wind gust in the vicinity of Titusville along the Atlantic Coast. Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, the environment south of this convection remains favorable for isolated damaging wind gusts, with steep low-level lapse rates, rich moisture, and moderate to strong instability in place. Farther south, a developing Cu field is noted across South Florida. Latest high-res guidance continues to suggest that an isolated storm or two may develop along the sea breeze over the next couple of hours. Locally greater moisture and buoyancy are noted across this area, with up to 3500 J/kg MLCAPE depicted by objective analysis. Coupled with cooler mid-level temperatures and steeper mid-level lapse rates (-9.5 C at 500 mb and 7-7.5 C/km, respectively, sampled by the 12z MFL observed sounding) compared to areas farther north, this would support a conditional threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail (perhaps to half-dollar size) with any storm that does form in this environment. Given the isolated nature of these threats, watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. ..Chalmers/Smith.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 25728005 25618044 25628104 25818171 26398217 26948251 27708284 28078270 28508217 28788128 28808076 28678050 28328039 27858030 27137997 26767987 26147992 25728005 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1605 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121927Z - 122130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic strong outflow gusts are possible this afternoon into early evening. Overall severe risk is expected to remain limited, and a watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have gradually intensified this afternoon. Initial convection has developed within modest boundary layer moisture within an upslope flow regime. Additional thunderstorms are developing along southwestward progressing outflow from morning convection over southwest OK. Modestly steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting around 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, while strong heating has allow low-level lapse rates to become quite steep. Vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and combined with modest instability, should limit overall severe potential. Nevertheless, deep boundary layer mixing noted on the 18z AMA RAOB and steep 0-3 km lapse rates will support potential for strong outflow winds through early evening. ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33499978 33370008 33270053 33280172 32990285 32800397 33280422 34440417 35160374 35750263 35880176 35750151 34630122 34540114 34080002 33809983 33499978 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..CHALMERS..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-033-059-073-105-107-125-133-141-159-163-165-167-169- 181-189-195-207-211-219-221-237-245-251-265-289-301-303-317-319- 122140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BURKE CLARKE COLUMBIA ELBERT EMANUEL GLASCOCK GREENE HANCOCK JASPER JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON JONES LINCOLN MCDUFFIE MADISON MONROE MORGAN OCONEE OGLETHORPE PUTNAM RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TWIGGS WARREN WASHINGTON WILKES WILKINSON SCC001-003-005-009-011-017-023-025-027-037-039-047-049-055-057- 059-061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085-087-122140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..CHALMERS..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-033-059-073-105-107-125-133-141-159-163-165-167-169- 181-189-195-207-211-219-221-237-245-251-265-289-301-303-317-319- 122140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BURKE CLARKE COLUMBIA ELBERT EMANUEL GLASCOCK GREENE HANCOCK JASPER JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON JONES LINCOLN MCDUFFIE MADISON MONROE MORGAN OCONEE OGLETHORPE PUTNAM RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TWIGGS WARREN WASHINGTON WILKES WILKINSON SCC001-003-005-009-011-017-023-025-027-037-039-047-049-055-057- 059-061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085-087-122140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..CHALMERS..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-033-059-073-105-107-125-133-141-159-163-165-167-169- 181-189-195-207-211-219-221-237-245-251-265-289-301-303-317-319- 122140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BURKE CLARKE COLUMBIA ELBERT EMANUEL GLASCOCK GREENE HANCOCK JASPER JEFFERSON JENKINS JOHNSON JONES LINCOLN MCDUFFIE MADISON MONROE MORGAN OCONEE OGLETHORPE PUTNAM RICHMOND SCREVEN TALIAFERRO TWIGGS WARREN WASHINGTON WILKES WILKINSON SCC001-003-005-009-011-017-023-025-027-037-039-047-049-055-057- 059-061-063-065-071-075-079-081-085-087-122140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH TO 10 SSW VLD TO 15 E MGR TO 15 NNW MGR TO 35 SSW CSG. ..CHALMERS..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC067-079-123-122140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAFAYETTE MADISON TAYLOR GAC019-071-075-095-173-177-185-273-277-321-122140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN COLQUITT COOK DOUGHERTY LANIER LEE LOWNDES TERRELL TIFT WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH TO 10 SSW VLD TO 15 E MGR TO 15 NNW MGR TO 35 SSW CSG. ..CHALMERS..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC067-079-123-122140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAFAYETTE MADISON TAYLOR GAC019-071-075-095-173-177-185-273-277-321-122140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN COLQUITT COOK DOUGHERTY LANIER LEE LOWNDES TERRELL TIFT WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH TO 10 SSW VLD TO 15 E MGR TO 15 NNW MGR TO 35 SSW CSG. ..CHALMERS..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC067-079-123-122140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAFAYETTE MADISON TAYLOR GAC019-071-075-095-173-177-185-273-277-321-122140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN COLQUITT COOK DOUGHERTY LANIER LEE LOWNDES TERRELL TIFT WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE TLH TO 10 SSW VLD TO 15 E MGR TO 15 NNW MGR TO 35 SSW CSG. ..CHALMERS..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC067-079-123-122140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAFAYETTE MADISON TAYLOR GAC019-071-075-095-173-177-185-273-277-321-122140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN COLQUITT COOK DOUGHERTY LANIER LEE LOWNDES TERRELL TIFT WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 485 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA 121755Z - 130000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 485 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster will continue to propagate east-northeastward along outflow this afternoon. The stronger thunderstorms and their associated wet microbursts will potentially be capable of strong to severe gusts (50 to 65 mph) and wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Dothan AL to 15 miles southeast of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25015. ...Smith Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may still occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also remain possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains primarily on track. The Slight risk wind probabilities were extended southwestward into GA to account for loosely organized bands of convection approaching a boundary layer supportive of efficient evaporative cooling and subsequent damaging gust potential from downbursts. Across the Upper Great Lakes, some westward trimming of thunder/severe probabilities was done since better forcing for ascent (e.g. WAA) is expected to remain placed north and east over Ontario. Lastly, conditional intensity level 1 (CIG1) was introduced across southern AZ, where confidence is relatively higher in one of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts potentially producing a severe gust in the 75-85 mph range. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ ...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether additional storm development will occur this afternoon in association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts. ...Arizona... Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert, aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph). ...Montana... A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may still occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also remain possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains primarily on track. The Slight risk wind probabilities were extended southwestward into GA to account for loosely organized bands of convection approaching a boundary layer supportive of efficient evaporative cooling and subsequent damaging gust potential from downbursts. Across the Upper Great Lakes, some westward trimming of thunder/severe probabilities was done since better forcing for ascent (e.g. WAA) is expected to remain placed north and east over Ontario. Lastly, conditional intensity level 1 (CIG1) was introduced across southern AZ, where confidence is relatively higher in one of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts potentially producing a severe gust in the 75-85 mph range. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ ...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether additional storm development will occur this afternoon in association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts. ...Arizona... Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert, aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph). ...Montana... A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may still occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also remain possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains primarily on track. The Slight risk wind probabilities were extended southwestward into GA to account for loosely organized bands of convection approaching a boundary layer supportive of efficient evaporative cooling and subsequent damaging gust potential from downbursts. Across the Upper Great Lakes, some westward trimming of thunder/severe probabilities was done since better forcing for ascent (e.g. WAA) is expected to remain placed north and east over Ontario. Lastly, conditional intensity level 1 (CIG1) was introduced across southern AZ, where confidence is relatively higher in one of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts potentially producing a severe gust in the 75-85 mph range. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ ...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether additional storm development will occur this afternoon in association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts. ...Arizona... Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert, aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph). ...Montana... A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may still occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also remain possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains primarily on track. The Slight risk wind probabilities were extended southwestward into GA to account for loosely organized bands of convection approaching a boundary layer supportive of efficient evaporative cooling and subsequent damaging gust potential from downbursts. Across the Upper Great Lakes, some westward trimming of thunder/severe probabilities was done since better forcing for ascent (e.g. WAA) is expected to remain placed north and east over Ontario. Lastly, conditional intensity level 1 (CIG1) was introduced across southern AZ, where confidence is relatively higher in one of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts potentially producing a severe gust in the 75-85 mph range. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ ...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether additional storm development will occur this afternoon in association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts. ...Arizona... Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert, aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph). ...Montana... A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may still occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also remain possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains primarily on track. The Slight risk wind probabilities were extended southwestward into GA to account for loosely organized bands of convection approaching a boundary layer supportive of efficient evaporative cooling and subsequent damaging gust potential from downbursts. Across the Upper Great Lakes, some westward trimming of thunder/severe probabilities was done since better forcing for ascent (e.g. WAA) is expected to remain placed north and east over Ontario. Lastly, conditional intensity level 1 (CIG1) was introduced across southern AZ, where confidence is relatively higher in one of the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts potentially producing a severe gust in the 75-85 mph range. Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026/ ...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether additional storm development will occur this afternoon in association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts. ...Arizona... Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert, aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph). ...Montana... A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana. ...New England... A strong shortwave trough is expected to move into the region during the evening. The strongest forcing for ascent will likely arrive after dark. Still, low-level moistening will promote moderate to strong buoyancy even into the evening (1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE). 50-60 kt of 0-6 km shear will promote organized convection capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A conditional tornado threat will also exist with any supercell structures that can remain surface based. ...Montana... Moderate to strong mid-level cyclonic flow will continue within the northern Rockies. An increase in low/mid-level moisture is expected as compared to previous days. A shortwave trough coupled with at least modest heating within the higher terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms. With an increase in cloud cover expected, it is not clear whether storms will be surface based. Severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana. ...New England... A strong shortwave trough is expected to move into the region during the evening. The strongest forcing for ascent will likely arrive after dark. Still, low-level moistening will promote moderate to strong buoyancy even into the evening (1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE). 50-60 kt of 0-6 km shear will promote organized convection capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A conditional tornado threat will also exist with any supercell structures that can remain surface based. ...Montana... Moderate to strong mid-level cyclonic flow will continue within the northern Rockies. An increase in low/mid-level moisture is expected as compared to previous days. A shortwave trough coupled with at least modest heating within the higher terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms. With an increase in cloud cover expected, it is not clear whether storms will be surface based. Severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana. ...New England... A strong shortwave trough is expected to move into the region during the evening. The strongest forcing for ascent will likely arrive after dark. Still, low-level moistening will promote moderate to strong buoyancy even into the evening (1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE). 50-60 kt of 0-6 km shear will promote organized convection capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A conditional tornado threat will also exist with any supercell structures that can remain surface based. ...Montana... Moderate to strong mid-level cyclonic flow will continue within the northern Rockies. An increase in low/mid-level moisture is expected as compared to previous days. A shortwave trough coupled with at least modest heating within the higher terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms. With an increase in cloud cover expected, it is not clear whether storms will be surface based. Severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana. ...New England... A strong shortwave trough is expected to move into the region during the evening. The strongest forcing for ascent will likely arrive after dark. Still, low-level moistening will promote moderate to strong buoyancy even into the evening (1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE). 50-60 kt of 0-6 km shear will promote organized convection capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. A conditional tornado threat will also exist with any supercell structures that can remain surface based. ...Montana... Moderate to strong mid-level cyclonic flow will continue within the northern Rockies. An increase in low/mid-level moisture is expected as compared to previous days. A shortwave trough coupled with at least modest heating within the higher terrain will promote widely scattered to scattered storms. With an increase in cloud cover expected, it is not clear whether storms will be surface based. Severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 07/12/2026 Read more