Storm Prediction Center

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 12 16:45:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK PROBABILITY LINES OVER GA/CAROLINAS ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also appear possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether additional storm development will occur this afternoon in association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts. ...Arizona... Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert, aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph). ...Montana... A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK PROBABILITY LINES OVER GA/CAROLINAS ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also appear possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether additional storm development will occur this afternoon in association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts. ...Arizona... Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert, aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph). ...Montana... A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK PROBABILITY LINES OVER GA/CAROLINAS ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also appear possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether additional storm development will occur this afternoon in association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts. ...Arizona... Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert, aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph). ...Montana... A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK PROBABILITY LINES OVER GA/CAROLINAS ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also appear possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether additional storm development will occur this afternoon in association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts. ...Arizona... Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert, aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph). ...Montana... A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK PROBABILITY LINES OVER GA/CAROLINAS ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also appear possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over north-central GA to the south of a differential heating zone/weak front draped across the southern Appalachians and west to east across the Carolinas. Surface temperatures will continue to warm into the 90s F south of the more prevalent cloud cover over the Upstate of SC and western/central NC. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters across the Southeast with strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage being the primary hazard. Farther west, more widely spaced clusters will likely develop over the central Gulf Coast states into the Ark-La-Tex region. Locally damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Into parts of the southern High Plains, a seasonably moist boundary layer will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon. Steep 0-3 km lapse rates will favor isolated severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. Considered a small Slight Risk over the TX South Plains but some uncertainty regarding storm coverage precluded higher severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Northwest-flow regime will maintain a plume of elevated mixed layer air atop a moist low-level airmass. It is uncertain whether additional storm development will occur this afternoon in association with a morning cluster of strong to severe storms over parts of the U.P. Nonetheless, sufficient shear/buoyancy for supercells and organized storms structures lends a continued conditional risk for severe storms into this evening/tonight. Some guidance shows an eventual outflow-dominant cluster moving into parts of the region tonight, with some potential for damaging gusts. ...Arizona... Very strong heating will again yield a hot and well-mixed boundary layer by mid afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop on the Rim and gradually propagate into the lower desert, aided by moderate easterly mid-level flow (30-kt at 500 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Phoenix raob). Strong evaporative cooling of the more water-laden downdrafts will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph). ...Montana... A weak front along with very strong heating may suffice for a few high-based thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon across north-central MT. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep inverted-V profiles imply some potential for severe gusts with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts. ..Smith/Chalmers.. 07/12/2026 Read more

MD 1598 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1598 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Areas affected...portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121236Z - 121430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Supercells may track southward through the morning with potential for large hail and damaging wind. DISCUSSION...A supercell is tracking southward across Lake Superior towards the Keweenaw Peninsula. There is some uncertainty in how far south this storm will be sustained, as an additional supercell to the north weakened quickly. Overnight guidance has handled the evolution of these storms poorly, leading to low confidence in more recent runs. The environment downstream has been steadily becoming more unstable, with an EML advecting eastward across the region. Currently, temperatures downstream of Lake Superior across the UP of Michigan are cooler, in the upper 60s to 70s with decreasing instability/deep layer shear to the south further inland. It is possible that this initial wave of storms may weaken as they move inland. Cumulus is deepening to the north of these initial cells across southern Ontario, which may lead to additional thunderstorm development over the next couple of hours. Trends will be monitored but for now the severe potential appears to be isolated. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH... LAT...LON 47488921 47948957 48238953 48478931 48608876 48428788 48238753 47838722 47588719 47278718 46968724 46738742 46658782 46878853 47048892 47138902 47488921 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also appear possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the past couple of days have convectively overturned the moist airmass across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is also a bit more prevalent this morning across this region per recent visible satellite imagery, with a weak surface front extending generally east-west across NC. This cloudiness may tend to delay/hinder daytime heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent. But, filtered heating through cloud breaks and the presence of low to mid 70s surface dewpoints should still aid in at least weak to moderate instability developing south of the front by mid afternoon. Current expectations are for scattered thunderstorms to once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the Appalachians and vicinity as a weak mid-level trough/shear zone spreads slowly eastward from the TN Valley to the Carolinas by this evening. While deep-layer shear will remain modest, this convection should spread generally eastward, with some potential for loosely organized clusters capable of producing isolated to scattered damaging winds. Severe wind probabilities have been generally adjusted southward based on latest observational and guidance trends. Thunderstorms developing this afternoon along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze across the FL Peninsula may also pose an isolated severe/damaging wind threat. Farther west into the lower MS Valley and southern Plains, deep-layer flow/shear is expected to remain rather weak. While thunderstorms will occur along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary, they should generally remain quite limited in organization. Still, a risk for locally severe/damaging winds may exist this afternoon as temperatures warm and the moist low-level airmass south of the boundary destabilizes with daytime heating. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Upper ridging is expected to build northward through the period across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, with an EML and associated steep mid-level lapse rates advecting eastward across the upper Great Lakes. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass and the presence of the EML will support moderate to locally strong instability across this region by early afternoon. Modest west-southwesterly low-level flow will veer strongly with height through mid/upper levels to north-northwesterly, aiding 30-40+ kt of deep-layer shear. The potential for southward-moving supercells capable of producing both large hail and severe/damaging winds remains apparent, especially across the U.P of MI with multiple supercells already ongoing across northern Lake Superior/Isle Royale this morning. There is still some uncertainty whether these supercells can be sustained with southward extent, as temperatures are forecast to gradually warm through the day in the 850-700 mb layer in tandem with the EML. Regardless, the ongoing severe thunderstorms this morning, coupled with potential for additional robust convection spreading southeastward from western Ontario later today, justify greater severe hail/wind probabilities across parts of the U.P of MI. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail appears possible given the strong deep-layer shear, steepening mid-level lapse rates, and expected supercell mode. ...Arizona... Mid/upper-level ridging will remain prominent today over the Rockies and Plains, with around 20-30 kt of easterly mid-level flow persisting over AZ/NM. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms this morning will shift westward through the day, with ample daytime heating still anticipated for much of southern/central AZ. The boundary layer will become very well mixed by mid afternoon as surface temperatures reach into the 90s/low 100s. Orographic lift should aid parcels in reaching their LFCs over the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim and in southeast AZ. The modestly enhanced easterly mid-level flow should aid this activity in spreading generally westward into the lower elevations of southern/central AZ through the remainder of the afternoon and continuing into the evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds will likely be the main threat given steepened low-level lapse rates and efficient momentum transfer in convective downdrafts. Some potential for clustering may exist, and the severe wind probabilities have been expanded westward across more of southern/central AZ with this update. ...Montana... The potential for locally strong/gusty winds may exist this afternoon with high-based convection that could spread from southwest into northern MT on the northwestern periphery of the amplified upper ridge over the Rockies/Plains. Confidence in sustained thunderstorms developing along/ahead of a weak front across this region remains rather low due to limited low-level moisture and capping concerns, so severe wind probabilities have not been introduced at this time. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also appear possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the past couple of days have convectively overturned the moist airmass across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is also a bit more prevalent this morning across this region per recent visible satellite imagery, with a weak surface front extending generally east-west across NC. This cloudiness may tend to delay/hinder daytime heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent. But, filtered heating through cloud breaks and the presence of low to mid 70s surface dewpoints should still aid in at least weak to moderate instability developing south of the front by mid afternoon. Current expectations are for scattered thunderstorms to once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the Appalachians and vicinity as a weak mid-level trough/shear zone spreads slowly eastward from the TN Valley to the Carolinas by this evening. While deep-layer shear will remain modest, this convection should spread generally eastward, with some potential for loosely organized clusters capable of producing isolated to scattered damaging winds. Severe wind probabilities have been generally adjusted southward based on latest observational and guidance trends. Thunderstorms developing this afternoon along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze across the FL Peninsula may also pose an isolated severe/damaging wind threat. Farther west into the lower MS Valley and southern Plains, deep-layer flow/shear is expected to remain rather weak. While thunderstorms will occur along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary, they should generally remain quite limited in organization. Still, a risk for locally severe/damaging winds may exist this afternoon as temperatures warm and the moist low-level airmass south of the boundary destabilizes with daytime heating. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Upper ridging is expected to build northward through the period across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, with an EML and associated steep mid-level lapse rates advecting eastward across the upper Great Lakes. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass and the presence of the EML will support moderate to locally strong instability across this region by early afternoon. Modest west-southwesterly low-level flow will veer strongly with height through mid/upper levels to north-northwesterly, aiding 30-40+ kt of deep-layer shear. The potential for southward-moving supercells capable of producing both large hail and severe/damaging winds remains apparent, especially across the U.P of MI with multiple supercells already ongoing across northern Lake Superior/Isle Royale this morning. There is still some uncertainty whether these supercells can be sustained with southward extent, as temperatures are forecast to gradually warm through the day in the 850-700 mb layer in tandem with the EML. Regardless, the ongoing severe thunderstorms this morning, coupled with potential for additional robust convection spreading southeastward from western Ontario later today, justify greater severe hail/wind probabilities across parts of the U.P of MI. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail appears possible given the strong deep-layer shear, steepening mid-level lapse rates, and expected supercell mode. ...Arizona... Mid/upper-level ridging will remain prominent today over the Rockies and Plains, with around 20-30 kt of easterly mid-level flow persisting over AZ/NM. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms this morning will shift westward through the day, with ample daytime heating still anticipated for much of southern/central AZ. The boundary layer will become very well mixed by mid afternoon as surface temperatures reach into the 90s/low 100s. Orographic lift should aid parcels in reaching their LFCs over the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim and in southeast AZ. The modestly enhanced easterly mid-level flow should aid this activity in spreading generally westward into the lower elevations of southern/central AZ through the remainder of the afternoon and continuing into the evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds will likely be the main threat given steepened low-level lapse rates and efficient momentum transfer in convective downdrafts. Some potential for clustering may exist, and the severe wind probabilities have been expanded westward across more of southern/central AZ with this update. ...Montana... The potential for locally strong/gusty winds may exist this afternoon with high-based convection that could spread from southwest into northern MT on the northwestern periphery of the amplified upper ridge over the Rockies/Plains. Confidence in sustained thunderstorms developing along/ahead of a weak front across this region remains rather low due to limited low-level moisture and capping concerns, so severe wind probabilities have not been introduced at this time. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds may occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the Carolinas/Southeast into the southern Plains, and separately over southern/central Arizona. Large hail and severe winds also appear possible over portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. ...Carolinas/Southeast into the Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the past couple of days have convectively overturned the moist airmass across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is also a bit more prevalent this morning across this region per recent visible satellite imagery, with a weak surface front extending generally east-west across NC. This cloudiness may tend to delay/hinder daytime heating and related steepening of low-level lapse rates to some extent. But, filtered heating through cloud breaks and the presence of low to mid 70s surface dewpoints should still aid in at least weak to moderate instability developing south of the front by mid afternoon. Current expectations are for scattered thunderstorms to once again develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the Appalachians and vicinity as a weak mid-level trough/shear zone spreads slowly eastward from the TN Valley to the Carolinas by this evening. While deep-layer shear will remain modest, this convection should spread generally eastward, with some potential for loosely organized clusters capable of producing isolated to scattered damaging winds. Severe wind probabilities have been generally adjusted southward based on latest observational and guidance trends. Thunderstorms developing this afternoon along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze across the FL Peninsula may also pose an isolated severe/damaging wind threat. Farther west into the lower MS Valley and southern Plains, deep-layer flow/shear is expected to remain rather weak. While thunderstorms will occur along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary, they should generally remain quite limited in organization. Still, a risk for locally severe/damaging winds may exist this afternoon as temperatures warm and the moist low-level airmass south of the boundary destabilizes with daytime heating. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Upper ridging is expected to build northward through the period across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, with an EML and associated steep mid-level lapse rates advecting eastward across the upper Great Lakes. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass and the presence of the EML will support moderate to locally strong instability across this region by early afternoon. Modest west-southwesterly low-level flow will veer strongly with height through mid/upper levels to north-northwesterly, aiding 30-40+ kt of deep-layer shear. The potential for southward-moving supercells capable of producing both large hail and severe/damaging winds remains apparent, especially across the U.P of MI with multiple supercells already ongoing across northern Lake Superior/Isle Royale this morning. There is still some uncertainty whether these supercells can be sustained with southward extent, as temperatures are forecast to gradually warm through the day in the 850-700 mb layer in tandem with the EML. Regardless, the ongoing severe thunderstorms this morning, coupled with potential for additional robust convection spreading southeastward from western Ontario later today, justify greater severe hail/wind probabilities across parts of the U.P of MI. Isolated 2+ inch diameter hail appears possible given the strong deep-layer shear, steepening mid-level lapse rates, and expected supercell mode. ...Arizona... Mid/upper-level ridging will remain prominent today over the Rockies and Plains, with around 20-30 kt of easterly mid-level flow persisting over AZ/NM. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms this morning will shift westward through the day, with ample daytime heating still anticipated for much of southern/central AZ. The boundary layer will become very well mixed by mid afternoon as surface temperatures reach into the 90s/low 100s. Orographic lift should aid parcels in reaching their LFCs over the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim and in southeast AZ. The modestly enhanced easterly mid-level flow should aid this activity in spreading generally westward into the lower elevations of southern/central AZ through the remainder of the afternoon and continuing into the evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds will likely be the main threat given steepened low-level lapse rates and efficient momentum transfer in convective downdrafts. Some potential for clustering may exist, and the severe wind probabilities have been expanded westward across more of southern/central AZ with this update. ...Montana... The potential for locally strong/gusty winds may exist this afternoon with high-based convection that could spread from southwest into northern MT on the northwestern periphery of the amplified upper ridge over the Rockies/Plains. Confidence in sustained thunderstorms developing along/ahead of a weak front across this region remains rather low due to limited low-level moisture and capping concerns, so severe wind probabilities have not been introduced at this time. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/12/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field. The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found. As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection. Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run. ... Friday/Day 6 -- Mid-Atlantic Region ... This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field. The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found. As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection. Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run. ... Friday/Day 6 -- Mid-Atlantic Region ... This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will continue to retrograde during the early part of the forecast period, before becoming centered over the Rockies toward the end of the upcoming week. A seasonably strong mid-level trough will be positioned over northern Quebec, positioning strong northwesterly flow from the Upper Midwest southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the northeast. A combination of deterministic and ensemble forecast solutions, including AI emulators, show one or more short-wave troughs or jet streaks moving through this enhanced flow field. The position of these mid-level features will help drive a surface front southward across the eastern US that will stretch from somewhere in the central/north-central US into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north of this boundary, a seasonably cool, dry airmass should be found. Along and south of this surface boundary, a very warm, moist, and unstable airmass will be found. As the aforementioned short-wave troughs move through the enhanced mid-level flow, one or more rounds of thunderstorms/mesoscale convective systems are likely to develop and move east/southeast. Ensemble guidance continues to show a very unstable airmass (MUCAPE in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg) along and south of where the surface boundary resides, with strong vertical shear. The overall pattern would seem to suggest multiple rounds/days of severe potential, with prior days' convection likely modulating the where and intensity of subsequent days' convection. Given these sensitivities to prior days' convection, there will likely be run-to-run variability within the deterministic guidance suite as we approach the latter half of next week. Thus, while confidence is high in severe potential during the Day 4-8 period (and perhaps beyond), highlighting specific locations and days of severe potential will prove challenging, with likely areas changing from model run-to-run. ... Friday/Day 6 -- Mid-Atlantic Region ... This evening's deterministic guidance suite (20260712 00 UTC), along with yesterday morning's deterministic guidance suite (20260711 12 UTC), is faster moving the surface boundary south than last night's guidance suite (20260711 00 UTC). However, the overall ensemble guidance continues to suggest severe potential across the region, owing to differences in the position of the surface boundary and the timing of mid-level vorticity maxima. Severe probabilities (15%) have been retained with this forecast in a nod to the ensemble guidance suite, but if the current trend of pushing the surface boundary farther south on Thursday (Day 5) continues, severe weather probabilities may need to be removed as the surface boundary will push south of the better deep-layer shear. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana. ... Synopsis ... An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will begin to retrograde on Tuesday as a strong short-wave trough digs southeast out of Canada toward New England. As the ridge builds west, the mid-level height gradient will increase across the northwestern US as a seasonably strong mid-level trough/closed low remains anchored off the Washington/Oregon coasts. ... New England ... Thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of Quebec on Tuesday afternoon as a strong mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front move across the region. Ahead of this cold front, southwesterly surface winds will transport in rich boundary layer moisture, which will combine with diurnal heating to support MUCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Strong vertical shear (on the order of 50-60 knots) will overspread the region during the afternoon and evening, which will support one or more clusters of severe thunderstorms moving from Quebec into and across portions of New England during the late afternoon, evening, and early morning hours. All severe hazards will be possible with any sustained thunderstorm. One mitigating factor for a more significant severe weather event will be the timing of the storms. At this time, it appears thunderstorms will be moving across New England well after peak heating and into the overnight. Should the timing of storms be earlier than currently expected, greater coverage of thunderstorms may result and higher severe probabilities would be warranted. ... Portions of Western and Central Montana ... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of southwest Montana during the afternoon on Tuesday. Surface moisture will be better (surface dewpoints in the 50Fs) than in previous days, which should support greater afternoon buoyancy and in turn stronger thunderstorm updrafts. Strong south-southwesterly mid-level flow in between the trough to the west and ridge to the east will support thunderstorm organization and some severe potential as some of the storms move northeast off the higher terrain. ..Marsh.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana. ... Synopsis ... An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will begin to retrograde on Tuesday as a strong short-wave trough digs southeast out of Canada toward New England. As the ridge builds west, the mid-level height gradient will increase across the northwestern US as a seasonably strong mid-level trough/closed low remains anchored off the Washington/Oregon coasts. ... New England ... Thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of Quebec on Tuesday afternoon as a strong mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front move across the region. Ahead of this cold front, southwesterly surface winds will transport in rich boundary layer moisture, which will combine with diurnal heating to support MUCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Strong vertical shear (on the order of 50-60 knots) will overspread the region during the afternoon and evening, which will support one or more clusters of severe thunderstorms moving from Quebec into and across portions of New England during the late afternoon, evening, and early morning hours. All severe hazards will be possible with any sustained thunderstorm. One mitigating factor for a more significant severe weather event will be the timing of the storms. At this time, it appears thunderstorms will be moving across New England well after peak heating and into the overnight. Should the timing of storms be earlier than currently expected, greater coverage of thunderstorms may result and higher severe probabilities would be warranted. ... Portions of Western and Central Montana ... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of southwest Montana during the afternoon on Tuesday. Surface moisture will be better (surface dewpoints in the 50Fs) than in previous days, which should support greater afternoon buoyancy and in turn stronger thunderstorm updrafts. Strong south-southwesterly mid-level flow in between the trough to the west and ridge to the east will support thunderstorm organization and some severe potential as some of the storms move northeast off the higher terrain. ..Marsh.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across portions of New England on Tuesday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western and central Montana. ... Synopsis ... An expansive mid-level ridge centered over the north-central US will begin to retrograde on Tuesday as a strong short-wave trough digs southeast out of Canada toward New England. As the ridge builds west, the mid-level height gradient will increase across the northwestern US as a seasonably strong mid-level trough/closed low remains anchored off the Washington/Oregon coasts. ... New England ... Thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of Quebec on Tuesday afternoon as a strong mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front move across the region. Ahead of this cold front, southwesterly surface winds will transport in rich boundary layer moisture, which will combine with diurnal heating to support MUCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Strong vertical shear (on the order of 50-60 knots) will overspread the region during the afternoon and evening, which will support one or more clusters of severe thunderstorms moving from Quebec into and across portions of New England during the late afternoon, evening, and early morning hours. All severe hazards will be possible with any sustained thunderstorm. One mitigating factor for a more significant severe weather event will be the timing of the storms. At this time, it appears thunderstorms will be moving across New England well after peak heating and into the overnight. Should the timing of storms be earlier than currently expected, greater coverage of thunderstorms may result and higher severe probabilities would be warranted. ... Portions of Western and Central Montana ... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of southwest Montana during the afternoon on Tuesday. Surface moisture will be better (surface dewpoints in the 50Fs) than in previous days, which should support greater afternoon buoyancy and in turn stronger thunderstorm updrafts. Strong south-southwesterly mid-level flow in between the trough to the west and ridge to the east will support thunderstorm organization and some severe potential as some of the storms move northeast off the higher terrain. ..Marsh.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough and associated jet streak translates eastward across the Canadian Prairie on Monday, ridging will intensify over much of the Central US. Southerly and southeasterly flow around the western periphery of this ridge will transport monsoonal moisture northward into the Western US, resulting in a few pockets of dry/wet thunderstorms. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions across the central and northern High Plains will support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Colorado into Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota... Dry and windy conditions are forecast across portions of the central and northern High Plains on Monday, as surface winds respond to a lee trough. These winds are anticipated to be around 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity varying between 10-20%. Dead fuels guidance has ERCs in the 95th annual percentile range, but some semi-recent rainfall and live vegetation will serve to reduce some of the volatility of those fuels. At least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast at this time. ...Southwestern Montana and Northeastern California/Northwestern Nevada... Monsoonal moisture transported northward along the western periphery of the mid-level ridge will bring showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Intermountain West. While anticipated to be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to portions of northeastern California into northwestern Nevada on Monday. This mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will overlap with receptive fuels, and lightning on the periphery of the wetter downdrafts will still be capable of wildfire ignitions. In far southwestern Montana, a more classic isolated dry thunderstorm environment is forecast. Precipitable water content of 0.5-0.75" is forecast where HREF/REFS guidance shows thunderstorm activity developing. Proximity soundings to this thunderstorm activity shows deep inverted-V profiles and relatively fast storm motions. This should result in limited precipitation efficiency of thunderstorm activity overlapping with critically receptive fuels. ..Halbert.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough and associated jet streak translates eastward across the Canadian Prairie on Monday, ridging will intensify over much of the Central US. Southerly and southeasterly flow around the western periphery of this ridge will transport monsoonal moisture northward into the Western US, resulting in a few pockets of dry/wet thunderstorms. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions across the central and northern High Plains will support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Colorado into Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota... Dry and windy conditions are forecast across portions of the central and northern High Plains on Monday, as surface winds respond to a lee trough. These winds are anticipated to be around 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity varying between 10-20%. Dead fuels guidance has ERCs in the 95th annual percentile range, but some semi-recent rainfall and live vegetation will serve to reduce some of the volatility of those fuels. At least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast at this time. ...Southwestern Montana and Northeastern California/Northwestern Nevada... Monsoonal moisture transported northward along the western periphery of the mid-level ridge will bring showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Intermountain West. While anticipated to be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to portions of northeastern California into northwestern Nevada on Monday. This mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will overlap with receptive fuels, and lightning on the periphery of the wetter downdrafts will still be capable of wildfire ignitions. In far southwestern Montana, a more classic isolated dry thunderstorm environment is forecast. Precipitable water content of 0.5-0.75" is forecast where HREF/REFS guidance shows thunderstorm activity developing. Proximity soundings to this thunderstorm activity shows deep inverted-V profiles and relatively fast storm motions. This should result in limited precipitation efficiency of thunderstorm activity overlapping with critically receptive fuels. ..Halbert.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough and associated jet streak translates eastward across the Canadian Prairie on Monday, ridging will intensify over much of the Central US. Southerly and southeasterly flow around the western periphery of this ridge will transport monsoonal moisture northward into the Western US, resulting in a few pockets of dry/wet thunderstorms. Additionally, dry and breezy conditions across the central and northern High Plains will support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Colorado into Wyoming and portions of western South Dakota... Dry and windy conditions are forecast across portions of the central and northern High Plains on Monday, as surface winds respond to a lee trough. These winds are anticipated to be around 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity varying between 10-20%. Dead fuels guidance has ERCs in the 95th annual percentile range, but some semi-recent rainfall and live vegetation will serve to reduce some of the volatility of those fuels. At least Elevated fire-weather concerns are forecast at this time. ...Southwestern Montana and Northeastern California/Northwestern Nevada... Monsoonal moisture transported northward along the western periphery of the mid-level ridge will bring showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Intermountain West. While anticipated to be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were introduced to portions of northeastern California into northwestern Nevada on Monday. This mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will overlap with receptive fuels, and lightning on the periphery of the wetter downdrafts will still be capable of wildfire ignitions. In far southwestern Montana, a more classic isolated dry thunderstorm environment is forecast. Precipitable water content of 0.5-0.75" is forecast where HREF/REFS guidance shows thunderstorm activity developing. Proximity soundings to this thunderstorm activity shows deep inverted-V profiles and relatively fast storm motions. This should result in limited precipitation efficiency of thunderstorm activity overlapping with critically receptive fuels. ..Halbert.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO PORTIONS OF IDAHO AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to progress east-northeastward from British Columbia into the interior Canadian provinces today as an upper-level ridge moves from the Great Basin into the High Plains. Residual flow across the Pacific Northwest from the ejecting trough and a deepening surface low across eastern Montana will be responsible for Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West to the northern High Plains. ...Southern Montana into portions of Idaho and northern Wyoming... As a surface low deepens over eastern Montana this afternoon into the evening, the intensifying surface pressure gradient will result in sustained winds of 20-25 MPH across much of the area. Relative humidity of 10-15% is expected across portions of Idaho into southwestern Montana, and could get as low as 5-10% in south-central Montana into northern Wyoming. With ERCs largely in the 80th-95th annual percentiles across the region, Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast. As the surface low moves eastward and a cold front moves through the area, winds will shift from largely southerly to west-northwesterly but should still be gusting 20-25 MPH. ...Northern High Plains... Strong southeasterly surface flow ahead of the deepening cyclone should result in sustained 15-20 MPH winds across the far western Dakotas into portions of Wyoming and Montana. Relative humidity is forecast to be in the range of 5-15%, getting more moist with eastward extent. While ERCs are largely in the 90th-95th annual percentile range, this guidance does not account for live fuels and the current state of green vegetation. Given the uncertainty in the quality of fuels with this eastward extent, Elevated fire-weather highlights have been maintained -- though periods of Critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ...Southern Oregon into portions of northern Nevada and California... Lingering dry and breezy conditions in the wake of the ejecting mid-level jet streak will persist this afternoon across portions of northeastern California/northwestern Nevada into southern Oregon. Winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity around 15-20% will overlap with modestly receptive fuels, resulting in Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern and Central California... Isolated to scattered high-based showers appear possible across portions of California. Occasional lightning is possible, but limited buoyancy puts the likelihood at less than 10% coverage. Portions of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts may see a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity, but uncertainty in the coverage and rainfall amounts precludes highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more