SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
A robust upper level low will shift southward into the Great Basin
as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the central CONUS. Weak
upper troughing will also persist across the southern High Plains.
Meanwhile, a surface low will develop across the northern High
Plains as a cold front progresses eastward across the Great Basin.
Additional chances for wetting rainfall/thunderstorms are expected
across south-central Texas in association with a passing shortwave
trough and across much of the Southeast.
...Great Basin...
Southwesterly flow aloft and a deepening surface low will promote a
strengthening surface pressure gradient across the region. Ahead of
an eastward progressing cold front, sustained southwesterly surface
winds of 20-30 mph are expected and a deeply mixed and dry boundary
layer will support RH reductions of 15-20%. These conditions will
promote an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat amid
cured/drying fine fuels, primarily in lower elevation/mid-slope
areas. Only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights
based on recent guidance.
...Northeastern Montana and Extreme Western North Dakota...
As the upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest progresses
southeastward towards the Great Basin, pronounced lee surface trough
development is expected across central MT. As a result,
southeasterly winds will accelerate to 15-20 mph across much of the
northern High Plains, while limited low-level moisture return will
support RH reductions to 15-20% during peak afternoon heating across
eastern MT. Delayed green up and existing dry fuels align with these
dry and breezy conditions, maintaining Elevated fire weather
highlights. Afternoon heating and resultant instability may support
isolated thunderstorm development along far southern and western MT.
Forecast soundings depict a prominent dry sub-cloud layer and PWATs
of 0.5-0.8", allowing some threat of dry thunderstorms to evolve.
However, sufficient green-up and less receptive fuels may otherwise
mitigate a broader IsoDryT threat.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
A robust upper level low will shift southward into the Great Basin
as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the central CONUS. Weak
upper troughing will also persist across the southern High Plains.
Meanwhile, a surface low will develop across the northern High
Plains as a cold front progresses eastward across the Great Basin.
Additional chances for wetting rainfall/thunderstorms are expected
across south-central Texas in association with a passing shortwave
trough and across much of the Southeast.
...Great Basin...
Southwesterly flow aloft and a deepening surface low will promote a
strengthening surface pressure gradient across the region. Ahead of
an eastward progressing cold front, sustained southwesterly surface
winds of 20-30 mph are expected and a deeply mixed and dry boundary
layer will support RH reductions of 15-20%. These conditions will
promote an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat amid
cured/drying fine fuels, primarily in lower elevation/mid-slope
areas. Only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights
based on recent guidance.
...Northeastern Montana and Extreme Western North Dakota...
As the upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest progresses
southeastward towards the Great Basin, pronounced lee surface trough
development is expected across central MT. As a result,
southeasterly winds will accelerate to 15-20 mph across much of the
northern High Plains, while limited low-level moisture return will
support RH reductions to 15-20% during peak afternoon heating across
eastern MT. Delayed green up and existing dry fuels align with these
dry and breezy conditions, maintaining Elevated fire weather
highlights. Afternoon heating and resultant instability may support
isolated thunderstorm development along far southern and western MT.
Forecast soundings depict a prominent dry sub-cloud layer and PWATs
of 0.5-0.8", allowing some threat of dry thunderstorms to evolve.
However, sufficient green-up and less receptive fuels may otherwise
mitigate a broader IsoDryT threat.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
A robust upper level low will shift southward into the Great Basin
as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the central CONUS. Weak
upper troughing will also persist across the southern High Plains.
Meanwhile, a surface low will develop across the northern High
Plains as a cold front progresses eastward across the Great Basin.
Additional chances for wetting rainfall/thunderstorms are expected
across south-central Texas in association with a passing shortwave
trough and across much of the Southeast.
...Great Basin...
Southwesterly flow aloft and a deepening surface low will promote a
strengthening surface pressure gradient across the region. Ahead of
an eastward progressing cold front, sustained southwesterly surface
winds of 20-30 mph are expected and a deeply mixed and dry boundary
layer will support RH reductions of 15-20%. These conditions will
promote an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat amid
cured/drying fine fuels, primarily in lower elevation/mid-slope
areas. Only minor adjustments were made to the Elevated highlights
based on recent guidance.
...Northeastern Montana and Extreme Western North Dakota...
As the upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest progresses
southeastward towards the Great Basin, pronounced lee surface trough
development is expected across central MT. As a result,
southeasterly winds will accelerate to 15-20 mph across much of the
northern High Plains, while limited low-level moisture return will
support RH reductions to 15-20% during peak afternoon heating across
eastern MT. Delayed green up and existing dry fuels align with these
dry and breezy conditions, maintaining Elevated fire weather
highlights. Afternoon heating and resultant instability may support
isolated thunderstorm development along far southern and western MT.
Forecast soundings depict a prominent dry sub-cloud layer and PWATs
of 0.5-0.8", allowing some threat of dry thunderstorms to evolve.
However, sufficient green-up and less receptive fuels may otherwise
mitigate a broader IsoDryT threat.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE SOUTHEAST...FAR WEST TEXAS...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
for parts of the Southeast, far west Texas, southern New Mexico,
central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota Arrowhead,
and northern Rockies.
...Southeast...
Water vapor imagery shows mid-level south-southwesterly flow over
the Southeast. At the surface, a 1011 mb low is analyzed over
eastern Mississippi with onshore southerly flow located from the
Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. In this area, surface
dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F and the RAP has an axis of
moderate instability with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. A
line of strong thunderstorms is located along a low-level
convergence zone in far southeast Alabama, just to the west of the
instability axis. Also, the RAP shows 30 to 35 knots of 0-6 km
shear. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs suggest that 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity in far southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia could be as great as 100 to 125 m2/s2, suggesting that an
isolated tornado threat will be possible. A few of the stronger
storms may also have an isolated wind-damage threat.
...Far West Texas/Southern New Mexico...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
southwestern New Mexico extending southeastward into far west Texas.
Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within a
weakly unstable airmass with the RAP showing MLCAPE around 500 J/kg.
In addition, RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear around 40
knots and low-level lapse rates are very steep over parts of far
west Texas. This environment may support a potential for isolated
severe wind gusts early this evening.
...Minnesota Arrowhead...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over southern Ontario. A line of strong thunderstorms is
ongoing ahead of a front across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Ahead of
the storms, a narrow axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP
suggesting an isolated severe threat will continue for another hour
or so. The line is expected to weaken as it moves over the cooler
waters of Lake Superior later this evening.
...Northern Nebraska/Southeast South Dakota/Northwest Iowa/Southwest
Minnesota...
The latest RAP analysis shows an axis of moderate instability
located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley,
where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Isolated
strong thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis from northeast
Nebraska into far northwest Iowa. Although deep-layer shear is
relatively weak, steep low-level lapse rates will continue to
support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts this evening.
Hail may also occur with the stronger cells. As the low-level jet
increases across the central Plains later this evening, convective
coverage is expected to increase. A cluster of strong thunderstorms,
that is currently in northeast Colorado, is forecast to move
northeastward across southwest Nebraska. Isolated severe wind gusts
may occur with some of these storms.
...Northern Rockies...
A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the
far eastern Pacific to the northwest of Washington. A trough extends
southward just off the coast of the Washington and Oregon, with
southwesterly mid-level flow located over the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies. Within this flow, a pocket of weak instability is
analyzed by the RAP over northern Idaho and western Montana.
Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
support scattered thunderstorm development this evening. Very steep
low to mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for
isolated severe gusts.
..Broyles.. 05/26/2026
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE SOUTHEAST...FAR WEST TEXAS...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
for parts of the Southeast, far west Texas, southern New Mexico,
central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota Arrowhead,
and northern Rockies.
...Southeast...
Water vapor imagery shows mid-level south-southwesterly flow over
the Southeast. At the surface, a 1011 mb low is analyzed over
eastern Mississippi with onshore southerly flow located from the
Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. In this area, surface
dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F and the RAP has an axis of
moderate instability with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. A
line of strong thunderstorms is located along a low-level
convergence zone in far southeast Alabama, just to the west of the
instability axis. Also, the RAP shows 30 to 35 knots of 0-6 km
shear. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs suggest that 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity in far southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia could be as great as 100 to 125 m2/s2, suggesting that an
isolated tornado threat will be possible. A few of the stronger
storms may also have an isolated wind-damage threat.
...Far West Texas/Southern New Mexico...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
southwestern New Mexico extending southeastward into far west Texas.
Ahead of the shortwave, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within a
weakly unstable airmass with the RAP showing MLCAPE around 500 J/kg.
In addition, RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear around 40
knots and low-level lapse rates are very steep over parts of far
west Texas. This environment may support a potential for isolated
severe wind gusts early this evening.
...Minnesota Arrowhead...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over southern Ontario. A line of strong thunderstorms is
ongoing ahead of a front across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Ahead of
the storms, a narrow axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP
suggesting an isolated severe threat will continue for another hour
or so. The line is expected to weaken as it moves over the cooler
waters of Lake Superior later this evening.
...Northern Nebraska/Southeast South Dakota/Northwest Iowa/Southwest
Minnesota...
The latest RAP analysis shows an axis of moderate instability
located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley,
where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Isolated
strong thunderstorms are ongoing near this axis from northeast
Nebraska into far northwest Iowa. Although deep-layer shear is
relatively weak, steep low-level lapse rates will continue to
support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts this evening.
Hail may also occur with the stronger cells. As the low-level jet
increases across the central Plains later this evening, convective
coverage is expected to increase. A cluster of strong thunderstorms,
that is currently in northeast Colorado, is forecast to move
northeastward across southwest Nebraska. Isolated severe wind gusts
may occur with some of these storms.
...Northern Rockies...
A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery over the
far eastern Pacific to the northwest of Washington. A trough extends
southward just off the coast of the Washington and Oregon, with
southwesterly mid-level flow located over the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies. Within this flow, a pocket of weak instability is
analyzed by the RAP over northern Idaho and western Montana.
Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
support scattered thunderstorm development this evening. Very steep
low to mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for
isolated severe gusts.
..Broyles.. 05/26/2026
Read more
MD 0858 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
Mesoscale Discussion 0858
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Northern Rockies
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252346Z - 260145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for isolated damaging to occasionally severe
wind gusts will continue for a few more hours. Watch issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based convection is ongoing across
portions of the Northern Rockies from central Idaho into western
Montana, with several reports of damaging to severe wind gusts noted
with this activity over the least 1-2 hours. Latest objective
analysis depicts weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) across this
region, with a modified 18z BOI observed sounding depicting a deep,
well-mixed boundary layer with an inverted-v thermodynamic profile.
As this convection continues to evolve north-northeastward over the
next couple of hours, it will encounter accelerating mid-level flow
(sampled by the PDT/OTX VAD profiles) ahead of a robust mid/upper
trough digging into the Pacific Northwest. Steep low-level lapse
rates and dry boundary layer profiles will continue to promote
efficient evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport, with
the resultant potential for isolated damaging to occasionally severe
wind gusts.
Latest high-res guidance suggests that some clustering of ongoing
convection along developing cold pools may occur over the next 1-2
hours as storms evolve north-northeastward. In this scenario, a
corridor or two of locally greater severe wind potential may
develop. The greatest potential will likely be across portions of
west-central into northwestern Montana where guidance suggests a
pool of locally greater buoyancy may exist. Watch issuance is not
expected at this time, however, given the isolated nature of the
severe threat.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
LAT...LON 44791682 45951684 46601667 47491617 48281562 48931515
49041496 49061366 49071265 49061197 48811185 48041166
47421166 46541177 45331213 44631243 44371302 44261377
44131483 44161600 44351653 44791682
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
MD 0859 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of the mid-Missouri Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260013Z - 260145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated developing thunderstorms may bring a risk for
large hail and damaging wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. Watch
issuance is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and GOES lightning
data depict isolated, developing thunderstorms along a weak surface
trough from far northeastern Nebraska into northwestern Iowa.
Temperatures in the upper-80s F and dewpoints in the low-60s are
supporting moderate buoyancy, with 1500 to locally 2500 J/kg MLCAPE
depicted via latest objective analysis. While northwesterly
mid-level flow remains rather weak, 20-30 kts of effective shear is
sufficient to support some organization of more robust updrafts,
with the potential for marginal supercell structures. The primary
threats with these storms will be an isolated risk for large hail
and damaging wind gusts given steep low- and mid-level lapse rates.
The overall severe threat is expected to remain spatially and
temporally limited, with the mostly likely scenario being one or two
strong to severe thunderstorms evolving over the next 1-2 hours
before nocturnal cooling/stabilization begins to bring a decreasing
severe risk. Given this, watch issuance is unlikely, but trends will
continue to be monitored.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 42459719 42869719 43509668 44069539 44089445 43949397
43619375 43089385 42679419 42389485 42099560 41889626
41989684 42189711 42459719
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 0856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0856
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of the central Great Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252213Z - 260015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may bring a
risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail. Watch issuance
is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar/visible satellite imagery depicts isolated
thunderstorms evolving within a broader cumulus field extending
across portions of the central High/Great Plains. Modifying the 18z
LBF observed sounding with the latest surface observations depicts a
deep, well-mixed boundary layer profile, with weak buoyancy (around
500-750 J/kg MLCAPE), minimal remaining inhibition, and an LCL above
3.5 km. While generally weak shear (generally less than 20-25 kts)
is expected to largely limit updraft organization, the thermodynamic
environment will favor efficient evaporative cooling and the
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts. An instance or two of
large hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest cores given
steep mid-level lapse rates. Current expectations are for isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms to evolve in this corridor over
the next couple of hours, with some potential for clustering along
outflow boundaries.
Latest surface analysis reveals a corridor of better low-level
moisture and instability farther east into eastern Nebraska and
southeastern South Dakota. Despite greater buoyancy, latest
mesoanalysis and observed soundings/ACARs profiles indicate
lingering capping across this region. Given this, it remains
uncertain whether storms will develop/evolve eastward into this
corridor of more favorable moisture/buoyancy. Should this occur,
however, modestly greater effective shear and MLCAPE of 1500-2000+
J/kg would support an increased threat for large hail with eastward
extent along with a threat for damaging wind gusts.
Watch issuance is unlikely at this time given the current
expectation for severe magnitude/coverage to remain limited. Trends
will continue to be monitored, however.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 40690228 42300073 42610035 42799992 42849881 42709786
42479726 42069701 41729734 41249809 40759884 39970011
38900132 38650176 38660223 38680272 38940300 39420299
40690228
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 0857 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle...southeastern
Alabama...adjacent southwestern Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252220Z - 260015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The development of occasional supercell structures posing
a risk for brief, weak tornadoes may continue into early evening.
Due to the marginal/limited nature of this potential, it is not
clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends are being
monitored.
DISCUSSION...A modest belt of mean southerly ambient flow (on the
order of 20-30 kt) has developed inland across Alabama and Florida
Panhandle coastal areas, in association with a northeastward
migrating remnant mesoscale convective vortex to the northwest.
This has contributed to wind profiles including modest low-level
hodographs with clockwise curvature, along a low-level confluence
band which is providing a focus for vigorous thunderstorm
development extending west of Crestview FL southward offshore.
This convection is being supported by inflow of near saturated,
seasonably moist (including surface dew points in the lower/mid 70s
F) boundary layer air supportive of sizable CAPE up to around 2000
J/kg. And the environment has become conducive to supercell
structures with potential to produce brief/weak tornadoes. Given
the marginal nature of the wind profiles, the the enhancement of the
near-surface buoyancy, and potential upward parcel accelerations,
associated with the higher moisture content has probably been
necessary to support this activity. It is possible that this could
continue another few hours and perhaps spread a bit farther inland.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31128626 31628590 31518547 31118513 30598506 29948552
30238617 30708599 31128626
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
MD 0856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0856
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of the central Great Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252213Z - 260015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may bring a
risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail. Watch issuance
is unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar/visible satellite imagery depicts isolated
thunderstorms evolving within a broader cumulus field extending
across portions of the central High/Great Plains. Modifying the 18z
LBF observed sounding with the latest surface observations depicts a
deep, well-mixed boundary layer profile, with weak buoyancy (around
500-750 J/kg MLCAPE), minimal remaining inhibition, and an LCL above
3.5 km. While generally weak shear (generally less than 20-25 kts)
is expected to largely limit updraft organization, the thermodynamic
environment will favor efficient evaporative cooling and the
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts. An instance or two of
large hail also cannot be ruled out with the strongest cores given
steep mid-level lapse rates. Current expectations are for isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms to evolve in this corridor over
the next couple of hours, with some potential for clustering along
outflow boundaries.
Latest surface analysis reveals a corridor of better low-level
moisture and instability farther east into eastern Nebraska and
southeastern South Dakota. Despite greater buoyancy, latest
mesoanalysis and observed soundings/ACARs profiles indicate
lingering capping across this region. Given this, it remains
uncertain whether storms will develop/evolve eastward into this
corridor of more favorable moisture/buoyancy. Should this occur,
however, modestly greater effective shear and MLCAPE of 1500-2000+
J/kg would support an increased threat for large hail with eastward
extent along with a threat for damaging wind gusts.
Watch issuance is unlikely at this time given the current
expectation for severe magnitude/coverage to remain limited. Trends
will continue to be monitored, however.
..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 40690228 42300073 42610035 42799992 42849881 42709786
42479726 42069701 41729734 41249809 40759884 39970011
38900132 38650176 38660223 38680272 38940300 39420299
40690228
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 0857 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle...southeastern
Alabama...adjacent southwestern Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252220Z - 260015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The development of occasional supercell structures posing
a risk for brief, weak tornadoes may continue into early evening.
Due to the marginal/limited nature of this potential, it is not
clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends are being
monitored.
DISCUSSION...A modest belt of mean southerly ambient flow (on the
order of 20-30 kt) has developed inland across Alabama and Florida
Panhandle coastal areas, in association with a northeastward
migrating remnant mesoscale convective vortex to the northwest.
This has contributed to wind profiles including modest low-level
hodographs with clockwise curvature, along a low-level confluence
band which is providing a focus for vigorous thunderstorm
development extending west of Crestview FL southward offshore.
This convection is being supported by inflow of near saturated,
seasonably moist (including surface dew points in the lower/mid 70s
F) boundary layer air supportive of sizable CAPE up to around 2000
J/kg. And the environment has become conducive to supercell
structures with potential to produce brief/weak tornadoes. Given
the marginal nature of the wind profiles, the the enhancement of the
near-surface buoyancy, and potential upward parcel accelerations,
associated with the higher moisture content has probably been
necessary to support this activity. It is possible that this could
continue another few hours and perhaps spread a bit farther inland.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31128626 31628590 31518547 31118513 30598506 29948552
30238617 30708599 31128626
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low meanders around the CA/Great Basin region
through midweek. Deep-layer and dry, southwesterly flow southeast of
the upper low will continue to promote a fire weather threat for
portions of the Southwest and Upper CO River Basin Days
3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. The upper low evolves into an open trough by
Day 5/Friday before rushing northward into southern Canada over the
weekend, allowing drier conditions to return to the West Coast
states after several preceding days of precipitation and cooler
temperatures. A blocking ridge should remain anchored over the
central CONUS into Canada through early June.
...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest...
Broad southwesterly flow associated with the slow moving upper low
should sustain fire weather concerns for portions of the eastern
Great Basin and Southwest Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. In general,
sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph (25 mph in favorable terrain)
amid surface RH in the 10-20% range will support elevated to
critical fire weather conditions amid available dry fuels. The
waning of stronger mid-level winds and resultant dissolving surface
pressure gradients should bring some reprieve to the region as early
as Friday as the mid/upper wave begins to translate northward.
...Days 5-8/Friday-Tuesday...
Longer term forecast guidance continues to show a reduced fire
weather threat across the western U.S., primarily due to a lighter
wind regime associated with the blocking ridge. However, drier and
warmer conditions returning after the upper trough exodus will
support drying/curing of fuels across much of the region over the
weekend into early next week.
..Williams.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low meanders around the CA/Great Basin region
through midweek. Deep-layer and dry, southwesterly flow southeast of
the upper low will continue to promote a fire weather threat for
portions of the Southwest and Upper CO River Basin Days
3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. The upper low evolves into an open trough by
Day 5/Friday before rushing northward into southern Canada over the
weekend, allowing drier conditions to return to the West Coast
states after several preceding days of precipitation and cooler
temperatures. A blocking ridge should remain anchored over the
central CONUS into Canada through early June.
...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest...
Broad southwesterly flow associated with the slow moving upper low
should sustain fire weather concerns for portions of the eastern
Great Basin and Southwest Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. In general,
sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph (25 mph in favorable terrain)
amid surface RH in the 10-20% range will support elevated to
critical fire weather conditions amid available dry fuels. The
waning of stronger mid-level winds and resultant dissolving surface
pressure gradients should bring some reprieve to the region as early
as Friday as the mid/upper wave begins to translate northward.
...Days 5-8/Friday-Tuesday...
Longer term forecast guidance continues to show a reduced fire
weather threat across the western U.S., primarily due to a lighter
wind regime associated with the blocking ridge. However, drier and
warmer conditions returning after the upper trough exodus will
support drying/curing of fuels across much of the region over the
weekend into early next week.
..Williams.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low meanders around the CA/Great Basin region
through midweek. Deep-layer and dry, southwesterly flow southeast of
the upper low will continue to promote a fire weather threat for
portions of the Southwest and Upper CO River Basin Days
3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. The upper low evolves into an open trough by
Day 5/Friday before rushing northward into southern Canada over the
weekend, allowing drier conditions to return to the West Coast
states after several preceding days of precipitation and cooler
temperatures. A blocking ridge should remain anchored over the
central CONUS into Canada through early June.
...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest...
Broad southwesterly flow associated with the slow moving upper low
should sustain fire weather concerns for portions of the eastern
Great Basin and Southwest Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. In general,
sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph (25 mph in favorable terrain)
amid surface RH in the 10-20% range will support elevated to
critical fire weather conditions amid available dry fuels. The
waning of stronger mid-level winds and resultant dissolving surface
pressure gradients should bring some reprieve to the region as early
as Friday as the mid/upper wave begins to translate northward.
...Days 5-8/Friday-Tuesday...
Longer term forecast guidance continues to show a reduced fire
weather threat across the western U.S., primarily due to a lighter
wind regime associated with the blocking ridge. However, drier and
warmer conditions returning after the upper trough exodus will
support drying/curing of fuels across much of the region over the
weekend into early next week.
..Williams.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level low meanders around the CA/Great Basin region
through midweek. Deep-layer and dry, southwesterly flow southeast of
the upper low will continue to promote a fire weather threat for
portions of the Southwest and Upper CO River Basin Days
3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. The upper low evolves into an open trough by
Day 5/Friday before rushing northward into southern Canada over the
weekend, allowing drier conditions to return to the West Coast
states after several preceding days of precipitation and cooler
temperatures. A blocking ridge should remain anchored over the
central CONUS into Canada through early June.
...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday...
...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest...
Broad southwesterly flow associated with the slow moving upper low
should sustain fire weather concerns for portions of the eastern
Great Basin and Southwest Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday. In general,
sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph (25 mph in favorable terrain)
amid surface RH in the 10-20% range will support elevated to
critical fire weather conditions amid available dry fuels. The
waning of stronger mid-level winds and resultant dissolving surface
pressure gradients should bring some reprieve to the region as early
as Friday as the mid/upper wave begins to translate northward.
...Days 5-8/Friday-Tuesday...
Longer term forecast guidance continues to show a reduced fire
weather threat across the western U.S., primarily due to a lighter
wind regime associated with the blocking ridge. However, drier and
warmer conditions returning after the upper trough exodus will
support drying/curing of fuels across much of the region over the
weekend into early next week.
..Williams.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0855 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
Mesoscale Discussion 0855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...Minnesota Arrowhead
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252019Z - 252215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A storm or two is possible this afternoon/early evening,
particularly along the Canadian border. Marginally severe hail and
severe winds are possible with the most organized storms. A watch is
not likely.
DISCUSSION...Subtle influence from a shortwave trough moving through
Ontario has promoted thunderstorm development north of the Canadian
border this afternoon. Deepening cumulus are noted on visible
satellite within the Minnesota Arrowhead. Additional cumulus have
also developed farther northwest in the drier air. Given the
mid-level height rises that are occurring and expected to continue,
storm coverage, and intensity for that matter, in Minnesota are far
from clear. It does appear possible that a storm or two could
develop by late afternoon/early evening within a narrow corridor
from the axis of greater surface moisture and the lake breeze
boundary. This is more likely to occur near the border given the
greater influence of the shortwave trough. Temperatures are cold
enough aloft to support a marginal hail threat despite modest
moisture/buoyancy. Severe winds could also occur given how
well-mixed the boundary layer is.
..Wendt/Gleason.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
LAT...LON 47319365 47479400 47929445 48189431 48369393 48609325
48499211 48499204 48309089 48169024 47819038 47049157
46929222 47319365
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 0854 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 0854
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Areas affected...portions of West Texas and southern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251920Z - 252115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated
severe wind gusts into this evening.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed across portions
of southern NM and West TX this afternoon in response to weak ascent
and strong diurnal heating east of a weak upper low over the
Southwest. Continued heating will likely allow for additional
development given a broad, but weakly unstable air mass (SBCAPE
500-1000 J/kg) over the southern Rockies/High Plains. Enhanced
southerly flow aloft will support some potential for organized multi
cells and clusters, given 20-30 kt of effective shear.
Increasing storm coverage is expected with further heating and weak
ascent overspreading the Davis mountains and Mexican Plateau this
afternoon. This could support a few strong to severe wind gusts as
low-level lapse rates are steep, with LCLs of 2500-3000 m. While
some severe risk is possible into this evening, the limited buoyancy
and moisture should keep the threat isolated. Severe potential will
be relatively maximized with any longer-lived multi cell clusters
that can become established. Still, the limited organization
potential suggests a watch is unlikely.
..Lyons/Gleason.. 05/25/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 33900658 33900510 33370433 31160345 28940329 29370432
31600650 31760719 33260725 33900658
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts
of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast, far west Texas and southern New
Mexico, central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota
Arrowhead, and northern Rockies.
Severe probabilities were reduced over parts of eastern MS and
western AL where widespread precipitation is limiting
destabilization. Elsewhere, no significant changes were made to the
ongoing outlook.
..Hart.. 05/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026/
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon from NE into
southwest MN/northwest IA along a weak surface trough. Large-scale
ascent will remain negligible due to the close proximity to a
mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However,
ample instability and adequate deep-layer shear may still yield a
localized risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger
multicells, before this activity weakens by late evening.
...Minnesota Arrowhead...
The glancing influence of an upper trough moving from Manitoba into
northern Ontario should encourage at least isolated thunderstorm
development this afternoon across the MN Arrowhead vicinity. Steep
mid-level lapse rates present on the 12Z INL observed sounding and
daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass will support
moderate to locally strong instability. Sufficient deep-layer shear
for updraft organization will foster an isolated risk for large hail
and damaging winds with the stronger cores.
...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast...
A weak MCV and associated upper trough will move inland over the
central Gulf Coast states today. Modest flow enhancement and minor
low-level hodograph curvature may aid in occasional strong/gusty
winds and perhaps a brief tornado with convection spreading
northward this afternoon. But, poor lapse rates aloft noted on 12Z
LIX/JAN/BMX/FFC observed soundings will likely temper the
development of more robust instability, and should limit the overall
severe risk.
...Northern Rockies...
An upper trough/low will overspread the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies as it digs southeastward through tonight. While
low-level moisture will remain limited, daytime heating will foster
weak buoyancy and the development of high-based convection across
the northern Rockies this afternoon. Steepened low/mid-level lapse
rates may support occasionally strong to severe downdraft winds with
this activity.
...Southern New Mexico/Far West Texas...
An upper trough over AZ late this morning will move slowly
north-northeastward across the Southwest through the period.
Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across northern Mexico and
southwest NM will encounter a gradually destabilizing airmass
downstream into far west TX. Isolated strong to severe gusts may
occur as low-level lapse rates become steepened.
...Central Texas...
A weak MCV noted in visible satellite imagery late this morning is
slowly meandering across central TX. While additional convection
with locally gusty winds may develop this afternoon in its
proximity, weak shear should limit the threat for organized severe
thunderstorms.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts
of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast, far west Texas and southern New
Mexico, central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota
Arrowhead, and northern Rockies.
Severe probabilities were reduced over parts of eastern MS and
western AL where widespread precipitation is limiting
destabilization. Elsewhere, no significant changes were made to the
ongoing outlook.
..Hart.. 05/25/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026/
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon from NE into
southwest MN/northwest IA along a weak surface trough. Large-scale
ascent will remain negligible due to the close proximity to a
mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However,
ample instability and adequate deep-layer shear may still yield a
localized risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger
multicells, before this activity weakens by late evening.
...Minnesota Arrowhead...
The glancing influence of an upper trough moving from Manitoba into
northern Ontario should encourage at least isolated thunderstorm
development this afternoon across the MN Arrowhead vicinity. Steep
mid-level lapse rates present on the 12Z INL observed sounding and
daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass will support
moderate to locally strong instability. Sufficient deep-layer shear
for updraft organization will foster an isolated risk for large hail
and damaging winds with the stronger cores.
...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast...
A weak MCV and associated upper trough will move inland over the
central Gulf Coast states today. Modest flow enhancement and minor
low-level hodograph curvature may aid in occasional strong/gusty
winds and perhaps a brief tornado with convection spreading
northward this afternoon. But, poor lapse rates aloft noted on 12Z
LIX/JAN/BMX/FFC observed soundings will likely temper the
development of more robust instability, and should limit the overall
severe risk.
...Northern Rockies...
An upper trough/low will overspread the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies as it digs southeastward through tonight. While
low-level moisture will remain limited, daytime heating will foster
weak buoyancy and the development of high-based convection across
the northern Rockies this afternoon. Steepened low/mid-level lapse
rates may support occasionally strong to severe downdraft winds with
this activity.
...Southern New Mexico/Far West Texas...
An upper trough over AZ late this morning will move slowly
north-northeastward across the Southwest through the period.
Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across northern Mexico and
southwest NM will encounter a gradually destabilizing airmass
downstream into far west TX. Isolated strong to severe gusts may
occur as low-level lapse rates become steepened.
...Central Texas...
A weak MCV noted in visible satellite imagery late this morning is
slowly meandering across central TX. While additional convection
with locally gusty winds may develop this afternoon in its
proximity, weak shear should limit the threat for organized severe
thunderstorms.
Read more
