Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorm development appears low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Amplification within the westerlies across the northern mid-latitude Pacific is ongoing. Near the leading edge of this regime, a significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level cyclone are now digging toward the Pacific Northwest coast, and forecast to progress inland across coastal areas later today through tonight. As this occurs, the center of broad, weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forecast to sharpen some, along a negatively tilted axis across the southern Great Basin through northern Mexican Plateau by daybreak Tuesday. Downstream, weak troughing across eastern Texas and the western Gulf Basin will tend to slowly shift north-northeastward toward the lower Mississippi Valley, as a high remains prominent across the subtropical western Atlantic. In higher latitudes, mid-level ridging is forecast to continue to build to the east the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. This will include further mid-level height rises across the Missouri Valley through Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region. In lower levels, a cold front likely will advance inland across Washington, Oregon and much of northern California, while surface troughing deepens across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through northern Great Plains. However, seasonably moist boundary-layer air appears likely to generally remain confined to portions of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley through Southeast and Mid Atlantic. ...Minnesota Arrowhead/adjacent Upper Great Lakes... Mid-level heights are forecast to continue to rise across the region today, even as a fairly significant short wave trough and associated forcing for ascent dig across northwestern Ontario, generally well to the north of the upper Great Lakes region. Even so, convection allowing and related machine learning guidance continue to suggest that isolated thunderstorm development is possible as far south as the Minnesota Arrowhead vicinity, in an environment that could become supportive of a supercell. As a result, 5 percent severe weather probabilities will be maintained. However, given the lack of better available low-level moisture and the spread evident within guidance concerning potential destabilization, these may be too high. ...Central Great Plains and adjacent Middle Missouri Valley... Calibrated thunderstorm probabilities from most ensemble output suggest that widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by late this afternoon, in a corridor of stronger potential boundary-layer destabilization within the lee surface troughing, from portions of southwestern Nebraska through southwestern Minnesota/northwestern Iowa. If inhibition associated with continuing mid-level height rises and more substantive lower/mid-tropospheric warming is overcome, thermodynamic profiles may be conducive to locally strong to severe surface gusts and some hail, particularly where a narrow corridor of better low-level moisture is maintained across the northeastern Nebraska through southern Minnesota vicinity. ...Parts of southwestern Texas into south central New Mexico... Stronger deep-layer layer shear and forcing for ascent, within the exit region of a strong subtropical jet nosing into the northern Mexican Plateau, may support and enhance thunderstorm development across parts of northeastern Chihuahua into adjacent portions of the Rio Grande Valley by late this afternoon. This probably will be rooted within a weakly unstable, but deeply mixed boundary layer supportive of at least a risk for strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorm development appears low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Amplification within the westerlies across the northern mid-latitude Pacific is ongoing. Near the leading edge of this regime, a significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level cyclone are now digging toward the Pacific Northwest coast, and forecast to progress inland across coastal areas later today through tonight. As this occurs, the center of broad, weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forecast to sharpen some, along a negatively tilted axis across the southern Great Basin through northern Mexican Plateau by daybreak Tuesday. Downstream, weak troughing across eastern Texas and the western Gulf Basin will tend to slowly shift north-northeastward toward the lower Mississippi Valley, as a high remains prominent across the subtropical western Atlantic. In higher latitudes, mid-level ridging is forecast to continue to build to the east the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. This will include further mid-level height rises across the Missouri Valley through Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region. In lower levels, a cold front likely will advance inland across Washington, Oregon and much of northern California, while surface troughing deepens across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through northern Great Plains. However, seasonably moist boundary-layer air appears likely to generally remain confined to portions of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley through Southeast and Mid Atlantic. ...Minnesota Arrowhead/adjacent Upper Great Lakes... Mid-level heights are forecast to continue to rise across the region today, even as a fairly significant short wave trough and associated forcing for ascent dig across northwestern Ontario, generally well to the north of the upper Great Lakes region. Even so, convection allowing and related machine learning guidance continue to suggest that isolated thunderstorm development is possible as far south as the Minnesota Arrowhead vicinity, in an environment that could become supportive of a supercell. As a result, 5 percent severe weather probabilities will be maintained. However, given the lack of better available low-level moisture and the spread evident within guidance concerning potential destabilization, these may be too high. ...Central Great Plains and adjacent Middle Missouri Valley... Calibrated thunderstorm probabilities from most ensemble output suggest that widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by late this afternoon, in a corridor of stronger potential boundary-layer destabilization within the lee surface troughing, from portions of southwestern Nebraska through southwestern Minnesota/northwestern Iowa. If inhibition associated with continuing mid-level height rises and more substantive lower/mid-tropospheric warming is overcome, thermodynamic profiles may be conducive to locally strong to severe surface gusts and some hail, particularly where a narrow corridor of better low-level moisture is maintained across the northeastern Nebraska through southern Minnesota vicinity. ...Parts of southwestern Texas into south central New Mexico... Stronger deep-layer layer shear and forcing for ascent, within the exit region of a strong subtropical jet nosing into the northern Mexican Plateau, may support and enhance thunderstorm development across parts of northeastern Chihuahua into adjacent portions of the Rio Grande Valley by late this afternoon. This probably will be rooted within a weakly unstable, but deeply mixed boundary layer supportive of at least a risk for strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/25/2026 Read more

MD 0851 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 243... FOR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0848 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Areas affected...southwest Minnesota...southeast South Dakota...far northwest Iowa...and northeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243... Valid 250148Z - 250315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243 continues. SUMMARY...Large-hail potential is expected to become more isolated through 04z. DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends indicate warming cloud tops and lowering reflectivity cores, which coincides with the gradual cooling and stabilization of the boundary layer. However, plan-view VWP data and short-term model forecasts indicate the strengthening of a nocturnal low-level jet from south-central NE into southeast SD. Enhanced convergence and moist flux within the terminus of that feature may support the continuation of isolated, strong to severe storms in far southeast SD and northwest IA for the next hour or two. Elsewhere, expect a gradual decrease in storm coverage and intensity through 04z as convective inhibition continues to increase. ..Mead.. 05/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 41809818 42419827 42979817 43909778 44179729 44589600 44879541 45119490 45009431 44479358 43969350 43739437 43609496 43039526 42579571 42049625 41929655 41579738 41809818 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0243 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 243 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW TQE TO 20 WNW OFK TO 20 ENE ONL TO 30 S MHE TO 30 E MHE TO 15 E BKX TO 45 ENE BKX TO 25 N RWF TO 40 W MSP. ..MEAD..05/25/26 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 243 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC119-141-143-149-167-250340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-015-033-063-079-081-083-085-101-103-105-117-127-129-133- 143-161-165-250340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN COTTONWOOD JACKSON LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY WASECA WATONWAN NEC027-043-051-107-139-173-179-250340- Read more

WW 243 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 242155Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...High-based supercells are expected from northeast Nebraska across southeast South Dakota into southwest Minnesota this evening, and storms could spread into northwest Iowa before weakening early tonight. The storms will be capable of producing large hail (1.5-2 inches in diameter) and isolated severe outflow gusts (60-65 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Redwood Falls MN to 30 miles west southwest of Norfolk NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0243 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 243 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW BKX TO 30 NW RWF TO 35 W MSP. ..MEAD..05/25/26 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 243 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC119-141-143-149-167-250240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-015-033-063-079-081-083-085-101-103-105-117-127-129-133- 143-161-165-250240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN COTTONWOOD JACKSON LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY WASECA WATONWAN NEC003-011-027-037-039-043-051-107-119-139-141-167-173-179- 250240- Read more

MD 0850 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 243... FOR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0850 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Areas affected...southwest Minnesota...southeast South Dakota...northwest Iowa...and northeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243... Valid 242349Z - 250145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 243 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for mainly large hail (up to 2") is expected to continue this evening. DISCUSSION...As of 0045 UTC, radar data showed strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing across southwest MN, including a couple supercells located north and northeast of New Ulm. Those storms are moving through the northeast extension of the low-level moisture axis with objective analysis indicating MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. However, the presence of stronger mid/high-level flow is resulting in elongated hodographs, which will continue to favor supercell storm modes with an associated risk for mainly large hail. As, such a local extension in area may be required to accommodate the ongoing hail threat. The storms may begin to weaken as they shift east of the I-35 corridor south of the Minneapolis metropolitan area owing to a progressively drier boundary-layer with eastward extent. Additional supercell structures have been observed in southeast SD, west of Yankton, with a recent report of 2" diameter hail. Those storms are located within the center of the instability axis, with MLCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg, per objective analysis. Given the presence of 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, the environment will remain supportive of supercell storm modes for the next few hours with an associated risk for hail up to 2.0" in diameter. Farther south in northeast NE, storms are gradually intensifying south and southeast of O'Neill, as they encounter an increasingly moist boundary layer with similar MLCAPE values to those in southeast SD. Current thinking is that those storms should continue to strengthen this evening as they progress east, with the most intense storms capable of large hail. ..Mead.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41789920 42869925 43459911 43559784 44199774 44219720 44529711 44519646 45299641 45319425 44769371 44109392 42909526 42479622 41869643 41299726 41479845 41789920 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated supercell development may persist in a narrow corridor across northeastern Nebraska into southwestern Minnesota through mid to late evening before diminishing. ...01Z Update... ...Mid Missouri Valley... Mid-level heights continue to build across much of the northern Rockies and Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. Primary forcing for ongoing convective development appears to lift associated with weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along and east of weak northern Great Plains surface troughing. Low-level moisture return has remained rather modest (with maximum surface dew points still in the mid/upper 50s F) and confined to a narrow corridor, but this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. The onset of radiational surface cooling, coupled with warming aloft, probably will result in rapidly increasing inhibition within the next couple of hours. This should be accompanied by diminishing convective trends, but it is possible that this could be slowed somewhat by forcing on the nose of a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Southern Appalachians... As a remnant lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex migrates north-northeastward across northwestern Georgia into the southern Appalachians, modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs are developing across the Piedmont of eastern Georgia into South Carolina. This is where a recent increase in thunderstorm development is ongoing in the presence of a seasonably moist boundary-layer characterized by sizable CAPE. With the surface dew points in the lower 70s enhancing low-level buoyancy and potential near surface upward accelerations, an isolated tornado may not be out of the question, before forcing spreads into cooler/more stable air. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated supercell development may persist in a narrow corridor across northeastern Nebraska into southwestern Minnesota through mid to late evening before diminishing. ...01Z Update... ...Mid Missouri Valley... Mid-level heights continue to build across much of the northern Rockies and Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. Primary forcing for ongoing convective development appears to lift associated with weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along and east of weak northern Great Plains surface troughing. Low-level moisture return has remained rather modest (with maximum surface dew points still in the mid/upper 50s F) and confined to a narrow corridor, but this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. The onset of radiational surface cooling, coupled with warming aloft, probably will result in rapidly increasing inhibition within the next couple of hours. This should be accompanied by diminishing convective trends, but it is possible that this could be slowed somewhat by forcing on the nose of a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Southern Appalachians... As a remnant lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex migrates north-northeastward across northwestern Georgia into the southern Appalachians, modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs are developing across the Piedmont of eastern Georgia into South Carolina. This is where a recent increase in thunderstorm development is ongoing in the presence of a seasonably moist boundary-layer characterized by sizable CAPE. With the surface dew points in the lower 70s enhancing low-level buoyancy and potential near surface upward accelerations, an isolated tornado may not be out of the question, before forcing spreads into cooler/more stable air. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated supercell development may persist in a narrow corridor across northeastern Nebraska into southwestern Minnesota through mid to late evening before diminishing. ...01Z Update... ...Mid Missouri Valley... Mid-level heights continue to build across much of the northern Rockies and Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. Primary forcing for ongoing convective development appears to lift associated with weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along and east of weak northern Great Plains surface troughing. Low-level moisture return has remained rather modest (with maximum surface dew points still in the mid/upper 50s F) and confined to a narrow corridor, but this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. The onset of radiational surface cooling, coupled with warming aloft, probably will result in rapidly increasing inhibition within the next couple of hours. This should be accompanied by diminishing convective trends, but it is possible that this could be slowed somewhat by forcing on the nose of a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Southern Appalachians... As a remnant lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex migrates north-northeastward across northwestern Georgia into the southern Appalachians, modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs are developing across the Piedmont of eastern Georgia into South Carolina. This is where a recent increase in thunderstorm development is ongoing in the presence of a seasonably moist boundary-layer characterized by sizable CAPE. With the surface dew points in the lower 70s enhancing low-level buoyancy and potential near surface upward accelerations, an isolated tornado may not be out of the question, before forcing spreads into cooler/more stable air. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated supercell development may persist in a narrow corridor across northeastern Nebraska into southwestern Minnesota through mid to late evening before diminishing. ...01Z Update... ...Mid Missouri Valley... Mid-level heights continue to build across much of the northern Rockies and Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. Primary forcing for ongoing convective development appears to lift associated with weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, along and east of weak northern Great Plains surface troughing. Low-level moisture return has remained rather modest (with maximum surface dew points still in the mid/upper 50s F) and confined to a narrow corridor, but this appears to be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. The onset of radiational surface cooling, coupled with warming aloft, probably will result in rapidly increasing inhibition within the next couple of hours. This should be accompanied by diminishing convective trends, but it is possible that this could be slowed somewhat by forcing on the nose of a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Southern Appalachians... As a remnant lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex migrates north-northeastward across northwestern Georgia into the southern Appalachians, modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs are developing across the Piedmont of eastern Georgia into South Carolina. This is where a recent increase in thunderstorm development is ongoing in the presence of a seasonably moist boundary-layer characterized by sizable CAPE. With the surface dew points in the lower 70s enhancing low-level buoyancy and potential near surface upward accelerations, an isolated tornado may not be out of the question, before forcing spreads into cooler/more stable air. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2026 Read more

WW 0243 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 243 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MEAD..05/25/26 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 243 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC119-141-143-149-167-250140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-015-023-033-063-067-073-079-081-083-085-093-101-103-105- 117-127-129-133-143-151-161-165-173-250140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY SWIFT WASECA WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE NEC003-011-015-027-037-039-043-051-071-089-107-119-139-141-167- Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 24 22:45:11 UTC 2026.

WW 0243 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 243 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MEAD..05/24/26 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 243 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC119-141-143-149-167-242340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC015-023-033-063-067-073-081-083-085-093-101-103-105-117-127- 129-133-143-151-165-173-242340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MEEKER MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY SWIFT WATONWAN YELLOW MEDICINE NEC003-011-015-027-037-039-043-051-071-089-107-119-139-141-167- 173-179-183-242340- Read more

WW 243 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 242155Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...High-based supercells are expected from northeast Nebraska across southeast South Dakota into southwest Minnesota this evening, and storms could spread into northwest Iowa before weakening early tonight. The storms will be capable of producing large hail (1.5-2 inches in diameter) and isolated severe outflow gusts (60-65 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Redwood Falls MN to 30 miles west southwest of Norfolk NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27015. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0243 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0243 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0849 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0849 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Areas affected...Northeast Nebraska into southwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242034Z - 242200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible when storms develop/mature this afternoon. Timing remains uncertain, but a watch is possible by late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Deeper cumulus have developed near the SD/NE border. Additional, but more shallow, development has also been noted from near Sioux Falls into southwest Minnesota. How soon any of this activity can develop into sustained thunderstorms is not clear given the subtly rising mid-level heights this afternoon. Given the strong surface heating, it is possible that a storm or two develops within the next 1-2 hours. However, it is more probable that more robust convection will initiate as lift from a shortwave trough now in eastern Montana arrives closer to 00Z. 30-35 kt of effective shear and -16 to -17 C at 500 mb (per 18Z ABR/OAX soundings) suggest large/very-large hail and severe winds would be possible with supercells. Timing of watch issuance remains uncertain. It is more probable by late afternoon, but could be sooner if convective trends warrant. ..Wendt.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... LAT...LON 44389801 45049604 44849515 44599462 44329469 44109485 42849647 42709666 42309732 42159872 42879942 43519908 44389801 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0848 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Areas affected...portions of north and central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241939Z - 242245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorms may pose a sporadic risk for strong to severe gusts this afternoon and early evening. A WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 2035 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery showed initial thunderstorm development was underway across portions of north TX. These initial storms have developed along a diffuse remnant boundary where low-level confluence has helped to erode ambient inhibition faster. Strong heating amid a seasonably moist surface air mass (dewpoints 65-70 F) should continue this afternoon, which will result in a broadly unstable (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE) environment over much of the southern Plains. Additional development is likely, both within the warm sector in central TX, and ahead of a remnant MCV over western north TX through the next couple of hours. While the environment is unstable, vertical shear is very weak (generally under 15 kts). This will favor a pulse multicell mode with little organization potential. Some CAM solutions suggest clustering is possible, which could support sporadic stronger gusts with downbursts. Thus, while some severe potential is evident, a WW is likely not needed. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31140013 31450006 32669942 33259930 33939827 33319673 32719599 31929590 31219656 30649714 30459762 30219804 30069867 30059917 30189983 31140013 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough shifts southward into the Great Basin as a blocking ridge becomes established over the central U.S. by midweek. A surface low develops across the northern High Plains on Day 3/Tuesday bringing fire weather concerns back into northeastern MT as dry, southeasterly flow emerges. The upper trough across the West and associated stronger southwesterly flow aloft should support an enhanced fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest through Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. The upper trough finally lifts into Canada by the weekend, relieving much of the West of a widespread dry and breezy regime. ...Day 3/Tuesday... ...Great Basin... An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and associated deepening surface cyclone in the Great Basin will support a fire weather threat across portions of eastern NV into southwest UT and northwestern AZ. A well-mixed boundary layer ahead of an approaching cold front and accelerating mid-level flow should result in southwest surface winds of 20-30 mph across the area. Near critically dry fuels along with the low daytime RH and gusty southwest winds necessitates continuation of the 40% critical probability area. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee trough over central MT is expected across much of the Northern Plains Day 3/Tuesday. Deeper low-level moisture should remain farther east over the Dakotas allowing for a fire weather threat to develop across northeastern MT where RH reductions fall close to 15%. A 40% critical probability area has been introduced across northeastern MT where dry fuels remain. ...Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday - Southwest... Persistent deep layer southwesterly flow and dry conditions across the Southwest will continue to promote a fire weather concern for southern portions of UT into AZ on Day 4/Wednesday, with overall threat shifting slightly eastward on Day 5/Thursday. A forecast caveat of current 40% areas remains the forecast rainfall footprint across the Southwest for the preceding Day 2-3/Monday-Tuesday time frame. Modifications to these existing threat areas may be necessary based on final rainfall distribution, particularly across NM. ..Williams.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough shifts southward into the Great Basin as a blocking ridge becomes established over the central U.S. by midweek. A surface low develops across the northern High Plains on Day 3/Tuesday bringing fire weather concerns back into northeastern MT as dry, southeasterly flow emerges. The upper trough across the West and associated stronger southwesterly flow aloft should support an enhanced fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest through Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. The upper trough finally lifts into Canada by the weekend, relieving much of the West of a widespread dry and breezy regime. ...Day 3/Tuesday... ...Great Basin... An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and associated deepening surface cyclone in the Great Basin will support a fire weather threat across portions of eastern NV into southwest UT and northwestern AZ. A well-mixed boundary layer ahead of an approaching cold front and accelerating mid-level flow should result in southwest surface winds of 20-30 mph across the area. Near critically dry fuels along with the low daytime RH and gusty southwest winds necessitates continuation of the 40% critical probability area. ...Northern High Plains... Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee trough over central MT is expected across much of the Northern Plains Day 3/Tuesday. Deeper low-level moisture should remain farther east over the Dakotas allowing for a fire weather threat to develop across northeastern MT where RH reductions fall close to 15%. A 40% critical probability area has been introduced across northeastern MT where dry fuels remain. ...Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday - Southwest... Persistent deep layer southwesterly flow and dry conditions across the Southwest will continue to promote a fire weather concern for southern portions of UT into AZ on Day 4/Wednesday, with overall threat shifting slightly eastward on Day 5/Thursday. A forecast caveat of current 40% areas remains the forecast rainfall footprint across the Southwest for the preceding Day 2-3/Monday-Tuesday time frame. Modifications to these existing threat areas may be necessary based on final rainfall distribution, particularly across NM. ..Williams.. 05/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more