Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A strong upper high will develop and persist over the central/northern Plains into the Midwest through at least midweek. Upper-level troughing will continue near and off the Pacific Northwest coast with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across much of the Intermountain West early to midweek. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin, but an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies mid to late week that will help suppress moisture south and push it east late in the outlook period. A deep upper-level trough is likely to weaken the ridge over the Great Lakes as it moves into the Great Lakes and Northeast Day 4/Tuesday - Day 5/Wednesday. Monsoonal moisture (PWAT values of 0.8-1.5") is pushing west and north across the Great Basin, eastern California, and into portions of the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies. On the western/northern fringes of the deeper moisture, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are likely. On Day 3/Monday, a 10% area for dry thunderstorms was introduced for portions of northeast California/vicinity and another 10% area was introduced on Day 4/Tuesday from far northern California into central/northeast Oregon. Forecast PWAT values of 0.8-1" and surface dewpoints of 35-50F will likely to lead to at least pockets of wetting rain. However, storm motions of 25-40 knots, probabilities of rainfall exceeding 0.1" mostly less than 30%, and receptive fuels lead to issuing the 10% areas. Additionally, deeper moisture will move out of these areas by mid-week with dry/breezy conditions likely to follow. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern Colorado Day 3/Monday through at least Day 5/Wednesday. Fuels will rapidly cure amid these conditions leading to at least elevated conditions through mid-week. While RH will recover overnight, south-southeast winds are likely to remain breezy overnight. Dry and breezy conditions may spread into northeast Minnesota Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Winds will be stronger on Day 3/Monday, but RH will be higher, while lower RH spreads into the area on Day 4/Tuesday with slightly weaker winds. Critical conditions are not expected, with locally elevated conditions more likely. ..Nauslar.. 07/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A strong upper high will develop and persist over the central/northern Plains into the Midwest through at least midweek. Upper-level troughing will continue near and off the Pacific Northwest coast with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across much of the Intermountain West early to midweek. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin, but an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies mid to late week that will help suppress moisture south and push it east late in the outlook period. A deep upper-level trough is likely to weaken the ridge over the Great Lakes as it moves into the Great Lakes and Northeast Day 4/Tuesday - Day 5/Wednesday. Monsoonal moisture (PWAT values of 0.8-1.5") is pushing west and north across the Great Basin, eastern California, and into portions of the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies. On the western/northern fringes of the deeper moisture, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are likely. On Day 3/Monday, a 10% area for dry thunderstorms was introduced for portions of northeast California/vicinity and another 10% area was introduced on Day 4/Tuesday from far northern California into central/northeast Oregon. Forecast PWAT values of 0.8-1" and surface dewpoints of 35-50F will likely to lead to at least pockets of wetting rain. However, storm motions of 25-40 knots, probabilities of rainfall exceeding 0.1" mostly less than 30%, and receptive fuels lead to issuing the 10% areas. Additionally, deeper moisture will move out of these areas by mid-week with dry/breezy conditions likely to follow. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern Colorado Day 3/Monday through at least Day 5/Wednesday. Fuels will rapidly cure amid these conditions leading to at least elevated conditions through mid-week. While RH will recover overnight, south-southeast winds are likely to remain breezy overnight. Dry and breezy conditions may spread into northeast Minnesota Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Winds will be stronger on Day 3/Monday, but RH will be higher, while lower RH spreads into the area on Day 4/Tuesday with slightly weaker winds. Critical conditions are not expected, with locally elevated conditions more likely. ..Nauslar.. 07/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A strong upper high will develop and persist over the central/northern Plains into the Midwest through at least midweek. Upper-level troughing will continue near and off the Pacific Northwest coast with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across much of the Intermountain West early to midweek. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin, but an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies mid to late week that will help suppress moisture south and push it east late in the outlook period. A deep upper-level trough is likely to weaken the ridge over the Great Lakes as it moves into the Great Lakes and Northeast Day 4/Tuesday - Day 5/Wednesday. Monsoonal moisture (PWAT values of 0.8-1.5") is pushing west and north across the Great Basin, eastern California, and into portions of the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies. On the western/northern fringes of the deeper moisture, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are likely. On Day 3/Monday, a 10% area for dry thunderstorms was introduced for portions of northeast California/vicinity and another 10% area was introduced on Day 4/Tuesday from far northern California into central/northeast Oregon. Forecast PWAT values of 0.8-1" and surface dewpoints of 35-50F will likely to lead to at least pockets of wetting rain. However, storm motions of 25-40 knots, probabilities of rainfall exceeding 0.1" mostly less than 30%, and receptive fuels lead to issuing the 10% areas. Additionally, deeper moisture will move out of these areas by mid-week with dry/breezy conditions likely to follow. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern Colorado Day 3/Monday through at least Day 5/Wednesday. Fuels will rapidly cure amid these conditions leading to at least elevated conditions through mid-week. While RH will recover overnight, south-southeast winds are likely to remain breezy overnight. Dry and breezy conditions may spread into northeast Minnesota Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Winds will be stronger on Day 3/Monday, but RH will be higher, while lower RH spreads into the area on Day 4/Tuesday with slightly weaker winds. Critical conditions are not expected, with locally elevated conditions more likely. ..Nauslar.. 07/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1591 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482... FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1591 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Areas affected...northern Arkansas into southern Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482... Valid 112038Z - 112245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 482 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts remain possible through this evening across the watch area, and may eventually occur east of the watch into northern Alabama and southern Middle Tennessee. DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along the front this afternoon, extending across northern AR and into western TN. Strong wind gusts have been reported, with a peak wind of 47 kt measured at KMKL at 2009Z. The air mass remains strongly unstable across the entire watch area, and westerly winds have also warmed temperatures above 90 F into Middle TN and northern AL. As such, corridors of damaging gusts appear likely as stronger sections of the line bow toward the southeast. Additional activity has developed near the eastern edge of the watch into southern parts of Middle TN where the air mass has recovered. Depending on storm trends, a new watch may be considered east/downstream of WW482 later today. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 35849330 35829029 35628761 35208618 34748586 34298611 34028639 33898692 34258977 34969297 35239329 35629337 35849330 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0484 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W HRO TO 35 N RUE TO 15 W BVX TO 30 ESE JBR TO 25 SSW DYR TO 5 N MKL TO 60 ENE MKL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591 ..HALBERT..07/11/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC023-029-035-037-045-063-067-071-077-083-085-095-101-105-111- 115-117-119-123-127-141-145-147-149-112240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEBURNE CONWAY CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JOHNSON LEE LOGAN LONOKE MONROE NEWTON PERRY POINSETT POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SCOTT VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL MSC003-009-033-093-117-137-139-141-143-112240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON DESOTO Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV TO 25 W CHS TO 45 SSE ILM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590 ..HALBERT..07/11/26 ATTN...WFO...ILM...CAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC019-112240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLESTON AMZ256-340-360-112240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV TO 25 W CHS TO 45 SSE ILM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590 ..HALBERT..07/11/26 ATTN...WFO...ILM...CAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC019-112240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLESTON AMZ256-340-360-112240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 Read more

WW 481 SEVERE TSTM ? NC SC CW 111820Z - 120100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern North Carolina Central and Eastern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Small thunderstorm clusters are forecast to continue to develop and intensify this afternoon. Strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. This activity will likely push east of the coast by mid evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles south of Augusta GA to 25 miles south southeast of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MEAD..07/11/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-037-039-047-051-053-071-073-081-083-087-097- 103-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-125-131-133-143-145-147-149- 112240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CREEK CUSTER GARFIELD GRADY GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MAYES NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE CAROLINA SHORELINE...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds will remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Scattered severe wind gusts are still possible over southern Arizona late this afternoon through the evening. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The only appreciable change made to the 20Z Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe probabilities from the TX Panhandle. Here, subsidence and stability persist, with MLCINH of at least -100 J/kg in place amid minimal low-level convergence or upper support to encourage diurnal thunderstorm development. However, a few nocturnal storms may form due to impinging convective outflow from OK. Elsewhere across the CONUS, only minor changes were made to the general thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026/ ...Southern Plains/Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast and Mid-Atlantic... Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima (i.e., several MCVs evident in radar mosaic/satellite imagery) will advance slowly eastward across the mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley/Midwest and TN Valley and southern Appalachians. A developing thunderstorm cluster over the Upstate of SC will likely move east towards the Carolina coast later today. Ahead of this cluster, strong heating with temperatures warming into the 90s with lower to mid 70s F dewpoints will result in a moderately unstable airmass. Westerly low-level flow will imply the wind risk will likely overspread the coast. Isolated damaging winds may also occur farther north along/near a weak synoptic front, but less instability is forecast with northward extent into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Farther west, several clusters may evolve across the Mid South with damaging gusts the primary severe hazard. Visible-satellite imagery shows an MCV over northwest OK moving east. The airmass south of a stalled frontal zone will undergo strong heating via clear skies through mid afternoon. Short-term model guidance (HREF, HRRR-RRFS time-lagged ensemble) show scattered storms developing across north-central OK by 21-23 UTC. A well-mixed boundary layer will support strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of severe gusts with the more intense single and multicells. Have expanded the Slight Risk to account for this increased confidence in a severe threat across central OK. ...Southern Arizona... With a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Four Corners, a weak easterly mid-level flow regime is present today across the Sonoran Desert. Very strong heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and this was depicted on the 12 UTC Phoenix raob, with an accompanying 11.6 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio. Forecast soundings show 20-kt easterly flow in the mid levels atop weak westerly surface flow. Very steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will strongly favor evaporatively cooled downdrafts with the more intense cores. Severe gusts 60-80 mph appear likely with the stronger microbursts. This activity will likely transition from a few cells into an outflow-dominant cluster during the evening and coincide with a greater prevalence of severe gusts. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE CAROLINA SHORELINE...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds will remain possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Scattered severe wind gusts are still possible over southern Arizona late this afternoon through the evening. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The only appreciable change made to the 20Z Day 1 Outlook was to trim severe probabilities from the TX Panhandle. Here, subsidence and stability persist, with MLCINH of at least -100 J/kg in place amid minimal low-level convergence or upper support to encourage diurnal thunderstorm development. However, a few nocturnal storms may form due to impinging convective outflow from OK. Elsewhere across the CONUS, only minor changes were made to the general thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026/ ...Southern Plains/Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast and Mid-Atlantic... Weak mid-level troughing with multiple embedded and convectively enhanced vorticity maxima (i.e., several MCVs evident in radar mosaic/satellite imagery) will advance slowly eastward across the mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley/Midwest and TN Valley and southern Appalachians. A developing thunderstorm cluster over the Upstate of SC will likely move east towards the Carolina coast later today. Ahead of this cluster, strong heating with temperatures warming into the 90s with lower to mid 70s F dewpoints will result in a moderately unstable airmass. Westerly low-level flow will imply the wind risk will likely overspread the coast. Isolated damaging winds may also occur farther north along/near a weak synoptic front, but less instability is forecast with northward extent into the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Farther west, several clusters may evolve across the Mid South with damaging gusts the primary severe hazard. Visible-satellite imagery shows an MCV over northwest OK moving east. The airmass south of a stalled frontal zone will undergo strong heating via clear skies through mid afternoon. Short-term model guidance (HREF, HRRR-RRFS time-lagged ensemble) show scattered storms developing across north-central OK by 21-23 UTC. A well-mixed boundary layer will support strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of severe gusts with the more intense single and multicells. Have expanded the Slight Risk to account for this increased confidence in a severe threat across central OK. ...Southern Arizona... With a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Four Corners, a weak easterly mid-level flow regime is present today across the Sonoran Desert. Very strong heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and this was depicted on the 12 UTC Phoenix raob, with an accompanying 11.6 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio. Forecast soundings show 20-kt easterly flow in the mid levels atop weak westerly surface flow. Very steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will strongly favor evaporatively cooled downdrafts with the more intense cores. Severe gusts 60-80 mph appear likely with the stronger microbursts. This activity will likely transition from a few cells into an outflow-dominant cluster during the evening and coincide with a greater prevalence of severe gusts. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FAR NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. ...Southeast... A weak, cut-off upper low will likely be present in the vicinity of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians. This may help to organize storms along a stalled surface boundary within GA/SC. A moist airmass will promote a few stronger storms capable of wind damage. The overall threat does appear marginal as lapse rates will be less steep than previous days. ...Arizona... With at least 50s F dewpoints remaining within parts of Arizona, thunderstorm activity can again be expected during the afternoon. With mid-level flow being slightly more out of the southwest and weakening with time, it is not certain how strong storms will become and how many will move into the lower deserts. Even so, strong gusts will be possible given the inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. ...Southwest Montana... Models show a convective signal during the late afternoon within the higher terrain of southwest Montana. Due to cloud cover, buoyancy will not likely be very strong. Stronger flow aloft would allow for isolated, organized storms should heating be greater than forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FAR NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. ...Southeast... A weak, cut-off upper low will likely be present in the vicinity of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians. This may help to organize storms along a stalled surface boundary within GA/SC. A moist airmass will promote a few stronger storms capable of wind damage. The overall threat does appear marginal as lapse rates will be less steep than previous days. ...Arizona... With at least 50s F dewpoints remaining within parts of Arizona, thunderstorm activity can again be expected during the afternoon. With mid-level flow being slightly more out of the southwest and weakening with time, it is not certain how strong storms will become and how many will move into the lower deserts. Even so, strong gusts will be possible given the inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. ...Southwest Montana... Models show a convective signal during the late afternoon within the higher terrain of southwest Montana. Due to cloud cover, buoyancy will not likely be very strong. Stronger flow aloft would allow for isolated, organized storms should heating be greater than forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL IDAHO INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING... A Critical area was added for portions of east-central Idaho into southern Montana and northern Wyoming. HREF/REFS probabilities of critical winds/RH were mostly greater than 50% with swaths of areas above 90%. At noted in the previous outlook, some green vegetation remains. However, with forecast ERCs near or above the 90th percentile, BIs near to above the 97th percentile, including all-time daily maximums, and high likelihood of critical winds/RH overlapping well above normal temperatures, a Critical area was introduced. Locally critical conditions remain likely across portions of eastern Montana and Wyoming. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of northern Minnesota as west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph overlap with minimum RH of 30-40%. The Elevated area across northeast California and northwest Nevada was modified slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Mid/high-level clouds and the potential for high-based showers may limit reductions in RH and thus the development of elevated conditions across these areas, including into southern Oregon. Isolated to scattered high-based showers are likely across California, potentially starting late Day 1/tonight. Occasional lightning is possible with these showers, but very limited buoyancy and instability puts the probability at less than 10%. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Peninsular Ranges and southern Sierra and possibly extending across the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts in southern California. However, given the uncertainty of thunderstorm development and rainfall, an IsoDryT area was not introduced. ..Nauslar.. 07/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to progress east-northeastward from British Columbia into the interior Canadian provinces on Sunday as an upper-level ridge moves from the Great Basin into the High Plains. Residual flow across the Pacific Northwest from the ejecting trough and a deepening surface low across eastern Montana will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West to the northern High Plains. ...Eastern Idaho into southern Montana, Eastern Wyoming, and far western portions of the Dakotas... A deepening surface cyclone will be responsible for bringing gusty conditions to portions of the northern High Plains into Idaho, where winds are forecast to be around 20 MPH, potentially gusting to 25-30 MPH. Widespread relative humidity at or even below 10% with these forecast wind gusts will support Elevated to potentially Critical fire-weather conditions on Sunday. However, there is currently some uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels across the region. ERCs fuels guidance exceeds the 90th-95th annual percentiles, but other sources suggest there may be more green vegetation that is not accounted for in ERCs. Given the uncertainty in the quality of fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained. However, further upgrade to Critical in the Day 2 update is possible as forecast guidance and fuel readiness become clearer. ...Northeastern California/northwestern Nevada into southern Oregon... Dry and breezy conditions associated with the ejecting mid-level jet will linger across portions of the northern Sierra Nevadas into the Cascades on Sunday. Winds of 10-15 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15%, combined with modestly receptive fuels (ERCs at the 80th annual percentile) will support Elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL IDAHO INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING... A Critical area was added for portions of east-central Idaho into southern Montana and northern Wyoming. HREF/REFS probabilities of critical winds/RH were mostly greater than 50% with swaths of areas above 90%. At noted in the previous outlook, some green vegetation remains. However, with forecast ERCs near or above the 90th percentile, BIs near to above the 97th percentile, including all-time daily maximums, and high likelihood of critical winds/RH overlapping well above normal temperatures, a Critical area was introduced. Locally critical conditions remain likely across portions of eastern Montana and Wyoming. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of northern Minnesota as west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph overlap with minimum RH of 30-40%. The Elevated area across northeast California and northwest Nevada was modified slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Mid/high-level clouds and the potential for high-based showers may limit reductions in RH and thus the development of elevated conditions across these areas, including into southern Oregon. Isolated to scattered high-based showers are likely across California, potentially starting late Day 1/tonight. Occasional lightning is possible with these showers, but very limited buoyancy and instability puts the probability at less than 10%. Isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Peninsular Ranges and southern Sierra and possibly extending across the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts in southern California. However, given the uncertainty of thunderstorm development and rainfall, an IsoDryT area was not introduced. ..Nauslar.. 07/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to progress east-northeastward from British Columbia into the interior Canadian provinces on Sunday as an upper-level ridge moves from the Great Basin into the High Plains. Residual flow across the Pacific Northwest from the ejecting trough and a deepening surface low across eastern Montana will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West to the northern High Plains. ...Eastern Idaho into southern Montana, Eastern Wyoming, and far western portions of the Dakotas... A deepening surface cyclone will be responsible for bringing gusty conditions to portions of the northern High Plains into Idaho, where winds are forecast to be around 20 MPH, potentially gusting to 25-30 MPH. Widespread relative humidity at or even below 10% with these forecast wind gusts will support Elevated to potentially Critical fire-weather conditions on Sunday. However, there is currently some uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels across the region. ERCs fuels guidance exceeds the 90th-95th annual percentiles, but other sources suggest there may be more green vegetation that is not accounted for in ERCs. Given the uncertainty in the quality of fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained. However, further upgrade to Critical in the Day 2 update is possible as forecast guidance and fuel readiness become clearer. ...Northeastern California/northwestern Nevada into southern Oregon... Dry and breezy conditions associated with the ejecting mid-level jet will linger across portions of the northern Sierra Nevadas into the Cascades on Sunday. Winds of 10-15 MPH and relative humidity of 10-15%, combined with modestly receptive fuels (ERCs at the 80th annual percentile) will support Elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...PARTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA... CORRECTED FOR WORD USAGE ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. ...Portions of Carolinas into eastern Georgia... An upper-level trough will continue to slide eastward north of these regions. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be present across portions of the Carolinas, though winds will weaken with southwestward extent. A modest surface low is expected to develop along a stationary surface boundary. Scattered convection is possible during the afternoon within the very moist airmass south of the boundary. The most organized storms may exist along the boundary within North Carolina where shear will be stronger. However, surface heating may be more muted in this area. Stronger heating is more probable farther southwest, though shear will be weaker. Where the most favorable parameters overlap, scattered storms along with a few clusters will be capable of wind damage. ...Arizona... Model guidance continues to suggest that around 30 kt of mid-level easterly winds will persist into Sunday across the Mogollon Rim. Strong heating of the lower deserts along with greater moisture moving farther northwest will support widely scattered to scattered convection. Severe wind gusts will be possible with this activity during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Upper Great Lakes... Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. A passing shortwave trough to the northeast will promote moderate effective shear of 35-45 kt. With the upper ridge building in from the west, mid-level heights will be steadily rising through the period. This leads to uncertainty as to how many storms can form. The lake breeze boundaries present would likely be the focus for development. The environment would support large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado with a sustained supercell. Storm coverage precludes any upgrade in risk category, though storms could be intense if they form. ...Southern Plains into Southeast... Marginally severe storms are possible along and south of a stalled surface boundary. Afternoon buoyancy will be moderate to strong, but mid-level lapse rates and shear will generally be weak. Any greater threat for damaging winds will be tied to where organized clusters can form. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage will be possible across much of the Southeast on Sunday, with the greatest potential across South Carolina. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Arizona late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. ... Synopsis ... The center of an expansive mid-level ridge will build northeast from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains on Sunday, encompassing much of the contiguous US. A weak, positively-tilted mid-level trough will slowly move southeast from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, a weak low will meander southeast underneath the aforementioned mid-level trough. At the start of the forecast period, a convectively augmented boundary will arc from this low southwest into Arkansas before turning northwestward and extending into south-central/south-west Kansas. This boundary will push south through the period and serve as a focus for additional thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon. ... Much of South Carolina into East Georgia ... Ahead of the meandering surface low, a very warm and moist airmass will once again be in place as surface temperatures warm into the 80Fs and 90Fs in the presence of surface dewpoint temperatures in the 60Fs and low 70Fs. The result will be around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE within a mostly uncapped environment. Scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon as convective temperatures are breached. Weak mid-level flow (on the order of 15-20 knots) will favor single cells and multicell clusters. Relatively steep low-level lapse rates beneath the LCL and high precipitable water values will support downbursts/outflow winds capable of damage. Given the cooler mid-level temperatures associated with the mid-level trough, a few marginally severe hail reports may also occur. ... Southern High Plains into the Southeast ... To the south of the previously mentioned surface boundary, a warm/hot moist airmass will be in place as temperatures warm into the 90Fs to near 100F with dewpoints in the 60Fs and 70Fs. This will result in MUCAPE on the order of 2000 to perhaps 3000 J/kg. Strong diurnal heating coupled with weak convergence along the surface boundary should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. These storms will be capable of producing strong-to-marginally severe convective outflow winds. ... Arizona ... Steep mid-level lapse rates and ample mid-level moisture will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. This region will be to the south of the strong CONUS-wide ridge with a belt of enhanced easterlies overhead. This should allow thunderstorms that develop across the higher terrain of Arizona to move west into the lower desert. A deeply mixed boundary layer will allow for strong outflow winds to develop as convection spreads west into southern and central Arizona. ... Upper Great Lakes ... This region will be glanced by large-scale ascent associated with a strengthening mid-level jet across central Canada. Surface temperatures warming into the upper 80Fs and low 90Fs with dewpoints temperatures in the mid 60Fs to perhaps 70Fs will result in strong instability during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will be modest at best, but a few thunderstorms are expected to develop, perhaps along a 700-millibar front/boundary, during the afternoon. Steep low-level and mid-level lapse rates and effective-layer shear on the order of 30-35 knots will support a few strong-to-severe wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Forecast hodographs have modest curvature in the low-levels that a tornado or two may be possible with any supercell that can sustain itself and move more southerly, realizing the totality of the low-level curvature. ..Marsh.. 07/11/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 11 06:03:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 11 06:03:02 UTC 2026.