Storm Prediction Center

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts of the central Gulf Coast, portions of Far West Texas and southern New Mexico, Nebraska into southwest Minnesota, and the northern Rockies. ...Central Gulf Coast... A northward-moving MCV over southern MS to the east of an upper trough will aid in the minor flow enhancement across this region today. A few stronger thunderstorms may yield a localized wind damage risk. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the moist low levels co-located with small but favorably curved hodographs. See MCD #852 for short-term details. ...Northern Rockies... An upper trough immediately west of the Pacific Northwest this morning will gradually approach the northern Rockies as it digs southeastward into OR and northern CA through tonight. Diurnal heating will foster weak buoyancy and the development of quick-moving thunderstorms later today. Steepened low to mid-level lapse rates may support a couple of more vigorous evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of localized severe gusts. ...Minnesota Arrowhead... Glancing influence of a mid-level shortwave trough over ON will overspread the MN Arrowhead later this afternoon. Steepened lapse rates and adequate cloud-bearing shear may result in a couple of stronger thunderstorms capable of a localized wind/hail risk. ...Central Great Plains and adjacent Middle Missouri Valley... Model guidance continue to indicate scattered thunderstorms developing late today into this evening from NE into southwestern MN/northwest IA. Forcing for ascent will likely remain weak to negligible due in part to close proximity to a mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However, ample instability could yield an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger multicells prior to this activity diminishing by late evening. ...Parts of Far West Texas into southern New Mexico... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over AZ with a left-exit region of an upper jet situated over the border region of southeast AZ eastward into Far West TX. Diurnal destabilization and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support localized severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts later this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Weinman.. 05/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts of the central Gulf Coast, portions of Far West Texas and southern New Mexico, Nebraska into southwest Minnesota, and the northern Rockies. ...Central Gulf Coast... A northward-moving MCV over southern MS to the east of an upper trough will aid in the minor flow enhancement across this region today. A few stronger thunderstorms may yield a localized wind damage risk. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the moist low levels co-located with small but favorably curved hodographs. See MCD #852 for short-term details. ...Northern Rockies... An upper trough immediately west of the Pacific Northwest this morning will gradually approach the northern Rockies as it digs southeastward into OR and northern CA through tonight. Diurnal heating will foster weak buoyancy and the development of quick-moving thunderstorms later today. Steepened low to mid-level lapse rates may support a couple of more vigorous evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of localized severe gusts. ...Minnesota Arrowhead... Glancing influence of a mid-level shortwave trough over ON will overspread the MN Arrowhead later this afternoon. Steepened lapse rates and adequate cloud-bearing shear may result in a couple of stronger thunderstorms capable of a localized wind/hail risk. ...Central Great Plains and adjacent Middle Missouri Valley... Model guidance continue to indicate scattered thunderstorms developing late today into this evening from NE into southwestern MN/northwest IA. Forcing for ascent will likely remain weak to negligible due in part to close proximity to a mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However, ample instability could yield an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger multicells prior to this activity diminishing by late evening. ...Parts of Far West Texas into southern New Mexico... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over AZ with a left-exit region of an upper jet situated over the border region of southeast AZ eastward into Far West TX. Diurnal destabilization and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support localized severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts later this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Weinman.. 05/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts of the central Gulf Coast, portions of Far West Texas and southern New Mexico, Nebraska into southwest Minnesota, and the northern Rockies. ...Central Gulf Coast... A northward-moving MCV over southern MS to the east of an upper trough will aid in the minor flow enhancement across this region today. A few stronger thunderstorms may yield a localized wind damage risk. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the moist low levels co-located with small but favorably curved hodographs. See MCD #852 for short-term details. ...Northern Rockies... An upper trough immediately west of the Pacific Northwest this morning will gradually approach the northern Rockies as it digs southeastward into OR and northern CA through tonight. Diurnal heating will foster weak buoyancy and the development of quick-moving thunderstorms later today. Steepened low to mid-level lapse rates may support a couple of more vigorous evaporatively cooled downdrafts capable of localized severe gusts. ...Minnesota Arrowhead... Glancing influence of a mid-level shortwave trough over ON will overspread the MN Arrowhead later this afternoon. Steepened lapse rates and adequate cloud-bearing shear may result in a couple of stronger thunderstorms capable of a localized wind/hail risk. ...Central Great Plains and adjacent Middle Missouri Valley... Model guidance continue to indicate scattered thunderstorms developing late today into this evening from NE into southwestern MN/northwest IA. Forcing for ascent will likely remain weak to negligible due in part to close proximity to a mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However, ample instability could yield an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger multicells prior to this activity diminishing by late evening. ...Parts of Far West Texas into southern New Mexico... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over AZ with a left-exit region of an upper jet situated over the border region of southeast AZ eastward into Far West TX. Diurnal destabilization and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support localized severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts later this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Weinman.. 05/25/2026 Read more

MD 0852 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0852 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana...and southwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251142Z - 251345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this morning. DISCUSSION...Preceding a midlevel trough/low (evident in water-vapor imagery) over eastern TX, the latest radar data indicates an MCV moving onshore into southern MS. The MOB VWP is sampling deep-southerly flow and a small clockwise-curved low-level hodograph. Given a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) and the modestly sheared environment, a couple loosely organized clusters with embedded rotation will be possible. This should generally be focused along/ahead of the northward-moving MCV over the next few hours. Locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any stronger storms that evolve. ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30178991 30799006 31338993 31768966 32008924 32048871 31868828 31518807 30988811 29928860 29648914 29788964 30178991 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday through D5/Friday... The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies. Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low. A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability. ...D6/Saturday through D8/Monday... Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday through D5/Friday... The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies. Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low. A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability. ...D6/Saturday through D8/Monday... Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Thursday through D5/Friday... The western low is expected to shift northward again and phase with the northern jet stream D4/Thursday - D5/Friday. There is low confidence in chances for strong to severe storms, pending details on moisture, across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies. Guidance suggests that as the western trough shifts northward and weak disturbances rotate across the Rockies, lee troughing across the Plains may strengthen D5/Friday, bringing a potential for low end severe risk into the central/northern High Plains. For now confidence in any corridors of organized severe risk remain too low. A cold front will sag southward across the east coast D4/Thursday through D5/Friday as enhanced flow digs an upper level trough across Quebec southward into the eastern Great Lakes. Some low end severe potential may accompany this frontal passage each day, but uncertainty remains high in overlap of deep layer shear with better moisture/instability. ...D6/Saturday through D8/Monday... Toward the end of next weekend D7/Sunday through D8/Monday, ensemble guidance is increasing in confidence for a large scale ridge to build in across the central/western US with rising heights and warming temperatures. Building surface high pressure across the Midwest/Great Lakes may shunt moisture southward to the Gulf states. Should this pattern continue to hold, severe potential will remain low through much of the CONUS. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D2/Tuesday as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the central CONUS. Weak upper troughing will also persist across the southern High/Great Plains. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop across the northern High Plains as a cold front progresses eastward across the Great Basin. Additional chances for wetting rainfall/thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains in association with a passing shortwave trough and across much of the Southeast. ...Northeastern Montana... Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee trough/strengthening surface low is expected across much of the northern High Plains on D2/Tuesday, with sustained surface winds of around 15-25 mph and occasional wind gusts up to 30 mph expected. Greater low-level moisture is forecast to remain displaced to the east across the Dakotas, with forecast guidance/soundings depicting deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles and RH reductions to near 15% across much of eastern/northeastern Montana. With dry fuels across much of northeastern Montana, these conditions are expected to support elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon. Consideration was given to a westward expansion of elevated highlights; however, uncertainty regarding the coverage/development of high-based convection in association with a northward shifting mid-level shortwave trough also increases with westward extent. Trends will be monitored for future outlook cycles. ...Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper-level trough shifts southward into the Great Basin on Tuesday, a deepening surface low will promote a strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the eastward progressing cold front. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected amid this strengthening gradient, with well-mixed boundary layer profiles supporting RH reductions to 15-20% (locally lower). Accelerating mid-level flow may also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph (perhaps higher in exposed, elevated terrain areas). With near critically dry fuels across the region, these conditions are expected to support a broad area of elevated fire weather concerns, with locally critical conditions possible in areas of drier fine fuels. ..Chalmers.. 05/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D2/Tuesday as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the central CONUS. Weak upper troughing will also persist across the southern High/Great Plains. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop across the northern High Plains as a cold front progresses eastward across the Great Basin. Additional chances for wetting rainfall/thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains in association with a passing shortwave trough and across much of the Southeast. ...Northeastern Montana... Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee trough/strengthening surface low is expected across much of the northern High Plains on D2/Tuesday, with sustained surface winds of around 15-25 mph and occasional wind gusts up to 30 mph expected. Greater low-level moisture is forecast to remain displaced to the east across the Dakotas, with forecast guidance/soundings depicting deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles and RH reductions to near 15% across much of eastern/northeastern Montana. With dry fuels across much of northeastern Montana, these conditions are expected to support elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon. Consideration was given to a westward expansion of elevated highlights; however, uncertainty regarding the coverage/development of high-based convection in association with a northward shifting mid-level shortwave trough also increases with westward extent. Trends will be monitored for future outlook cycles. ...Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper-level trough shifts southward into the Great Basin on Tuesday, a deepening surface low will promote a strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the eastward progressing cold front. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected amid this strengthening gradient, with well-mixed boundary layer profiles supporting RH reductions to 15-20% (locally lower). Accelerating mid-level flow may also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph (perhaps higher in exposed, elevated terrain areas). With near critically dry fuels across the region, these conditions are expected to support a broad area of elevated fire weather concerns, with locally critical conditions possible in areas of drier fine fuels. ..Chalmers.. 05/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level trough will shift southward into the Great Basin on D2/Tuesday as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the central CONUS. Weak upper troughing will also persist across the southern High/Great Plains. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop across the northern High Plains as a cold front progresses eastward across the Great Basin. Additional chances for wetting rainfall/thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains in association with a passing shortwave trough and across much of the Southeast. ...Northeastern Montana... Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee trough/strengthening surface low is expected across much of the northern High Plains on D2/Tuesday, with sustained surface winds of around 15-25 mph and occasional wind gusts up to 30 mph expected. Greater low-level moisture is forecast to remain displaced to the east across the Dakotas, with forecast guidance/soundings depicting deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles and RH reductions to near 15% across much of eastern/northeastern Montana. With dry fuels across much of northeastern Montana, these conditions are expected to support elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon. Consideration was given to a westward expansion of elevated highlights; however, uncertainty regarding the coverage/development of high-based convection in association with a northward shifting mid-level shortwave trough also increases with westward extent. Trends will be monitored for future outlook cycles. ...Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper-level trough shifts southward into the Great Basin on Tuesday, a deepening surface low will promote a strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the eastward progressing cold front. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected amid this strengthening gradient, with well-mixed boundary layer profiles supporting RH reductions to 15-20% (locally lower). Accelerating mid-level flow may also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph (perhaps higher in exposed, elevated terrain areas). With near critically dry fuels across the region, these conditions are expected to support a broad area of elevated fire weather concerns, with locally critical conditions possible in areas of drier fine fuels. ..Chalmers.. 05/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON... ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest today as a weaker mid/upper trough and an associated plume of enhanced mid/upper level moisture shift into the Southwest. Another upper trough will transition quickly east/northeastward across northern New England while ridging remains in place over the Southeast and much of the High Plains. Chances for wetting rainfall will continue across much of the East Coast and the South along/ahead of a surface quasi-stationary boundary/cold front. A second cold front will also begin to advance across the Pacific Northwest in tandem with the aforementioned upper trough. ...Great Basin... A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of an approaching surface cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH values around 15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this region. This combination of winds/RH and cured/drying lower elevation fuels will result in a critical fire weather threat from northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon this afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing and strengthening southwesterly flow aloft may also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across adjacent portions of the Great Basin where sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 15-25%. ...Southwest... A mid/upper trough and associated plume of greater mid-level moisture will shift into the Southwest through today. This will contribute to weak buoyancy and support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over receptive fuels (ERCs around the 90th percentile). Thunderstorms will initially be high-based, with a dry boundary layer supporting evaporation of rainfall. More robust boundary layer moistening and the potential for a more prolonged convective event in some locations will support a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, with rainfall accumulations of up to 0.5" possible, primarily from west-central New Mexico into east-central Arizona. Minor trimming to the drawn area was done to account for recent rainfall accumulation trends in the latest high-res guidance. High-based thunderstorms with lower rainfall totals should still be more prevalent along and south of the Mogollon Rim and along the fringes of the deeper subtropical moisture plume across lower elevation areas, where isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights remain. ..Chalmers.. 05/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON... ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest today as a weaker mid/upper trough and an associated plume of enhanced mid/upper level moisture shift into the Southwest. Another upper trough will transition quickly east/northeastward across northern New England while ridging remains in place over the Southeast and much of the High Plains. Chances for wetting rainfall will continue across much of the East Coast and the South along/ahead of a surface quasi-stationary boundary/cold front. A second cold front will also begin to advance across the Pacific Northwest in tandem with the aforementioned upper trough. ...Great Basin... A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of an approaching surface cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH values around 15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this region. This combination of winds/RH and cured/drying lower elevation fuels will result in a critical fire weather threat from northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon this afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing and strengthening southwesterly flow aloft may also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across adjacent portions of the Great Basin where sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 15-25%. ...Southwest... A mid/upper trough and associated plume of greater mid-level moisture will shift into the Southwest through today. This will contribute to weak buoyancy and support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over receptive fuels (ERCs around the 90th percentile). Thunderstorms will initially be high-based, with a dry boundary layer supporting evaporation of rainfall. More robust boundary layer moistening and the potential for a more prolonged convective event in some locations will support a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, with rainfall accumulations of up to 0.5" possible, primarily from west-central New Mexico into east-central Arizona. Minor trimming to the drawn area was done to account for recent rainfall accumulation trends in the latest high-res guidance. High-based thunderstorms with lower rainfall totals should still be more prevalent along and south of the Mogollon Rim and along the fringes of the deeper subtropical moisture plume across lower elevation areas, where isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights remain. ..Chalmers.. 05/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON... ...Synopsis... A robust upper-level trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest today as a weaker mid/upper trough and an associated plume of enhanced mid/upper level moisture shift into the Southwest. Another upper trough will transition quickly east/northeastward across northern New England while ridging remains in place over the Southeast and much of the High Plains. Chances for wetting rainfall will continue across much of the East Coast and the South along/ahead of a surface quasi-stationary boundary/cold front. A second cold front will also begin to advance across the Pacific Northwest in tandem with the aforementioned upper trough. ...Great Basin... A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of an approaching surface cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH values around 15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that fuels are becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this region. This combination of winds/RH and cured/drying lower elevation fuels will result in a critical fire weather threat from northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon this afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing and strengthening southwesterly flow aloft may also support occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected across adjacent portions of the Great Basin where sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph are forecast to overlap reduced RH of 15-25%. ...Southwest... A mid/upper trough and associated plume of greater mid-level moisture will shift into the Southwest through today. This will contribute to weak buoyancy and support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over receptive fuels (ERCs around the 90th percentile). Thunderstorms will initially be high-based, with a dry boundary layer supporting evaporation of rainfall. More robust boundary layer moistening and the potential for a more prolonged convective event in some locations will support a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, with rainfall accumulations of up to 0.5" possible, primarily from west-central New Mexico into east-central Arizona. Minor trimming to the drawn area was done to account for recent rainfall accumulation trends in the latest high-res guidance. High-based thunderstorms with lower rainfall totals should still be more prevalent along and south of the Mogollon Rim and along the fringes of the deeper subtropical moisture plume across lower elevation areas, where isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights remain. ..Chalmers.. 05/25/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Pacific Northwest to the Intermountain West and from the Plains to the Southeastern US on Wednesday. Organized severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Discussion... The western US trough will become cut off and shift southward into the Great Basin on Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West. A few strong gusts will be possible with storms across northern Idaho into western Montana. Overall, deep layer shear will largely be west of the marginal instability across central/eastern Montana, which will likely keep organized severe potential low. Model guidance that typically exhibits a moist-bias does suggest that higher instability does nudge into northern Montana and northern Idaho. Should more model consensus in this scenario increase, low probabilities may need to be introduced in upcoming outlook updates. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the southeast Wednesday afternoon. Overall, weak flow beneath the mid-level ridge will keep severe storm potential low. A few stronger storms will be possible across the Mid Atlantic as enhanced westerly flow from a trough across the northeast overspreads the region. Though deep layer shear will be around 35-40 kts, forecast soundings depict cloudy conditions through the morning, with skinny and elongated CAPE profiles and only marginal instability. This will likely temper the severe potential, though a few strong gusts will remain possible. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Pacific Northwest to the Intermountain West and from the Plains to the Southeastern US on Wednesday. Organized severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Discussion... The western US trough will become cut off and shift southward into the Great Basin on Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West. A few strong gusts will be possible with storms across northern Idaho into western Montana. Overall, deep layer shear will largely be west of the marginal instability across central/eastern Montana, which will likely keep organized severe potential low. Model guidance that typically exhibits a moist-bias does suggest that higher instability does nudge into northern Montana and northern Idaho. Should more model consensus in this scenario increase, low probabilities may need to be introduced in upcoming outlook updates. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the southeast Wednesday afternoon. Overall, weak flow beneath the mid-level ridge will keep severe storm potential low. A few stronger storms will be possible across the Mid Atlantic as enhanced westerly flow from a trough across the northeast overspreads the region. Though deep layer shear will be around 35-40 kts, forecast soundings depict cloudy conditions through the morning, with skinny and elongated CAPE profiles and only marginal instability. This will likely temper the severe potential, though a few strong gusts will remain possible. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the Pacific Northwest to the Intermountain West and from the Plains to the Southeastern US on Wednesday. Organized severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Discussion... The western US trough will become cut off and shift southward into the Great Basin on Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West. A few strong gusts will be possible with storms across northern Idaho into western Montana. Overall, deep layer shear will largely be west of the marginal instability across central/eastern Montana, which will likely keep organized severe potential low. Model guidance that typically exhibits a moist-bias does suggest that higher instability does nudge into northern Montana and northern Idaho. Should more model consensus in this scenario increase, low probabilities may need to be introduced in upcoming outlook updates. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the southeast Wednesday afternoon. Overall, weak flow beneath the mid-level ridge will keep severe storm potential low. A few stronger storms will be possible across the Mid Atlantic as enhanced westerly flow from a trough across the northeast overspreads the region. Though deep layer shear will be around 35-40 kts, forecast soundings depict cloudy conditions through the morning, with skinny and elongated CAPE profiles and only marginal instability. This will likely temper the severe potential, though a few strong gusts will remain possible. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be possible. ...Synopsis... The pattern on D2/Tuesday will include a deepening mid-level low across the Pacific Northwest and height rises with a building high downstream across the central/northern US. A shortwave with multiple embedded vorticity maximas will move across Texas. This will be the focus of scattered severe thunderstorm development by the afternoon. ...Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas... As forcing for ascent increases across Texas Tuesday afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Davis Mountains to the Edwards Plateau and to the southern Permian Basin. Moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the region, with increasing deep layer shear to around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely include a few supercells and multi-cell clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Forecast soundings indicate low-level SRH may increase through the late afternoon/evening, which could support some increase in tornado potential. Through time, cells are progged to cluster and move downstream into portions of south Texas. Should cells be able to maintain cold pool organization, damaging wind potential may extend to the southern Texas coast. The Slight Risk remains unchanged but a minor eastward expansion was given to the Marginal Risk to account for this potential. ...Montana... Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected with the upper trough across portions of southern Idaho into Montana. Modest instability and strengthening deep layer shear amid deeply mixed profiles may allow for a few stronger storms with potential for marginally severe hail and severe gusts. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be possible. ...Synopsis... The pattern on D2/Tuesday will include a deepening mid-level low across the Pacific Northwest and height rises with a building high downstream across the central/northern US. A shortwave with multiple embedded vorticity maximas will move across Texas. This will be the focus of scattered severe thunderstorm development by the afternoon. ...Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas... As forcing for ascent increases across Texas Tuesday afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Davis Mountains to the Edwards Plateau and to the southern Permian Basin. Moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the region, with increasing deep layer shear to around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely include a few supercells and multi-cell clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Forecast soundings indicate low-level SRH may increase through the late afternoon/evening, which could support some increase in tornado potential. Through time, cells are progged to cluster and move downstream into portions of south Texas. Should cells be able to maintain cold pool organization, damaging wind potential may extend to the southern Texas coast. The Slight Risk remains unchanged but a minor eastward expansion was given to the Marginal Risk to account for this potential. ...Montana... Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected with the upper trough across portions of southern Idaho into Montana. Modest instability and strengthening deep layer shear amid deeply mixed profiles may allow for a few stronger storms with potential for marginally severe hail and severe gusts. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be possible. ...Synopsis... The pattern on D2/Tuesday will include a deepening mid-level low across the Pacific Northwest and height rises with a building high downstream across the central/northern US. A shortwave with multiple embedded vorticity maximas will move across Texas. This will be the focus of scattered severe thunderstorm development by the afternoon. ...Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas... As forcing for ascent increases across Texas Tuesday afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected from the Davis Mountains to the Edwards Plateau and to the southern Permian Basin. Moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the region, with increasing deep layer shear to around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely include a few supercells and multi-cell clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Forecast soundings indicate low-level SRH may increase through the late afternoon/evening, which could support some increase in tornado potential. Through time, cells are progged to cluster and move downstream into portions of south Texas. Should cells be able to maintain cold pool organization, damaging wind potential may extend to the southern Texas coast. The Slight Risk remains unchanged but a minor eastward expansion was given to the Marginal Risk to account for this potential. ...Montana... Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected with the upper trough across portions of southern Idaho into Montana. Modest instability and strengthening deep layer shear amid deeply mixed profiles may allow for a few stronger storms with potential for marginally severe hail and severe gusts. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... The risk for organized severe thunderstorm development appears low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Amplification within the westerlies across the northern mid-latitude Pacific is ongoing. Near the leading edge of this regime, a significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level cyclone are now digging toward the Pacific Northwest coast, and forecast to progress inland across coastal areas later today through tonight. As this occurs, the center of broad, weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific is forecast to sharpen some, along a negatively tilted axis across the southern Great Basin through northern Mexican Plateau by daybreak Tuesday. Downstream, weak troughing across eastern Texas and the western Gulf Basin will tend to slowly shift north-northeastward toward the lower Mississippi Valley, as a high remains prominent across the subtropical western Atlantic. In higher latitudes, mid-level ridging is forecast to continue to build to the east the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. This will include further mid-level height rises across the Missouri Valley through Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region. In lower levels, a cold front likely will advance inland across Washington, Oregon and much of northern California, while surface troughing deepens across much of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through northern Great Plains. However, seasonably moist boundary-layer air appears likely to generally remain confined to portions of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley through Southeast and Mid Atlantic. ...Minnesota Arrowhead/adjacent Upper Great Lakes... Mid-level heights are forecast to continue to rise across the region today, even as a fairly significant short wave trough and associated forcing for ascent dig across northwestern Ontario, generally well to the north of the upper Great Lakes region. Even so, convection allowing and related machine learning guidance continue to suggest that isolated thunderstorm development is possible as far south as the Minnesota Arrowhead vicinity, in an environment that could become supportive of a supercell. As a result, 5 percent severe weather probabilities will be maintained. However, given the lack of better available low-level moisture and the spread evident within guidance concerning potential destabilization, these may be too high. ...Central Great Plains and adjacent Middle Missouri Valley... Calibrated thunderstorm probabilities from most ensemble output suggest that widely scattered thunderstorm development is probable by late this afternoon, in a corridor of stronger potential boundary-layer destabilization within the lee surface troughing, from portions of southwestern Nebraska through southwestern Minnesota/northwestern Iowa. If inhibition associated with continuing mid-level height rises and more substantive lower/mid-tropospheric warming is overcome, thermodynamic profiles may be conducive to locally strong to severe surface gusts and some hail, particularly where a narrow corridor of better low-level moisture is maintained across the northeastern Nebraska through southern Minnesota vicinity. ...Parts of southwestern Texas into south central New Mexico... Stronger deep-layer layer shear and forcing for ascent, within the exit region of a strong subtropical jet nosing into the northern Mexican Plateau, may support and enhance thunderstorm development across parts of northeastern Chihuahua into adjacent portions of the Rio Grande Valley by late this afternoon. This probably will be rooted within a weakly unstable, but deeply mixed boundary layer supportive of at least a risk for strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/25/2026 Read more