Storm Prediction Center

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...AND IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from parts of Oklahoma east-southeastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Storms with severe gusts with some above 70 mph, will also be possible in southern Arizona. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Northern Gulf Coast States... A very moist airmass is in place from northern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast States, where surface dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. Along this west-northwest-to-east-southeast corridor, the RAP shows an axis of moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg and 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. Near the instability axis, the WSR-88D VWPs at Oklahoma City, Fort Smith and Little Rock have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This suggests potential for severe wind gusts with the more organized multicell line segments. The threat may persist for a few more hours...see MCD 1594. ...Southern Arizona... A sufficiently moist airmass is currently present across southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP over southeast Arizona where MLCAPE is estimated the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms have developed near the instability axis, and these storms will move westward across southern Arizona this evening. Ahead of the storms, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceed 50 degrees in some locations. The very steep lapse rates will contribute to a threat for severe wind gusts. A few gusts of 70 to 80 mph will be possible...see MCD 1595. ..Broyles.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...AND IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from parts of Oklahoma east-southeastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Storms with severe gusts with some above 70 mph, will also be possible in southern Arizona. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Northern Gulf Coast States... A very moist airmass is in place from northern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast States, where surface dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. Along this west-northwest-to-east-southeast corridor, the RAP shows an axis of moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg and 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. Near the instability axis, the WSR-88D VWPs at Oklahoma City, Fort Smith and Little Rock have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This suggests potential for severe wind gusts with the more organized multicell line segments. The threat may persist for a few more hours...see MCD 1594. ...Southern Arizona... A sufficiently moist airmass is currently present across southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP over southeast Arizona where MLCAPE is estimated the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms have developed near the instability axis, and these storms will move westward across southern Arizona this evening. Ahead of the storms, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceed 50 degrees in some locations. The very steep lapse rates will contribute to a threat for severe wind gusts. A few gusts of 70 to 80 mph will be possible...see MCD 1595. ..Broyles.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...AND IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from parts of Oklahoma east-southeastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Storms with severe gusts with some above 70 mph, will also be possible in southern Arizona. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Northern Gulf Coast States... A very moist airmass is in place from northern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast States, where surface dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. Along this west-northwest-to-east-southeast corridor, the RAP shows an axis of moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg and 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. Near the instability axis, the WSR-88D VWPs at Oklahoma City, Fort Smith and Little Rock have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This suggests potential for severe wind gusts with the more organized multicell line segments. The threat may persist for a few more hours...see MCD 1594. ...Southern Arizona... A sufficiently moist airmass is currently present across southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP over southeast Arizona where MLCAPE is estimated the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms have developed near the instability axis, and these storms will move westward across southern Arizona this evening. Ahead of the storms, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceed 50 degrees in some locations. The very steep lapse rates will contribute to a threat for severe wind gusts. A few gusts of 70 to 80 mph will be possible...see MCD 1595. ..Broyles.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...AND IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from parts of Oklahoma east-southeastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Storms with severe gusts with some above 70 mph, will also be possible in southern Arizona. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Northern Gulf Coast States... A very moist airmass is in place from northern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast States, where surface dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. Along this west-northwest-to-east-southeast corridor, the RAP shows an axis of moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg and 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. Near the instability axis, the WSR-88D VWPs at Oklahoma City, Fort Smith and Little Rock have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This suggests potential for severe wind gusts with the more organized multicell line segments. The threat may persist for a few more hours...see MCD 1594. ...Southern Arizona... A sufficiently moist airmass is currently present across southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP over southeast Arizona where MLCAPE is estimated the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms have developed near the instability axis, and these storms will move westward across southern Arizona this evening. Ahead of the storms, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceed 50 degrees in some locations. The very steep lapse rates will contribute to a threat for severe wind gusts. A few gusts of 70 to 80 mph will be possible...see MCD 1595. ..Broyles.. 07/12/2026 Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MEAD..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-037-039-047-051-053-071-073-081-083-087-097- 103-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-125-131-133-143-145-147-149- 120140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CREEK CUSTER GARFIELD GRADY GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MAYES NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV TO 25 W CHS TO 45 SSE ILM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590 ..HALBERT..07/11/26 ATTN...WFO...ILM...CAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC019-112240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLESTON AMZ256-340-360-112240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV TO 25 W CHS TO 45 SSE ILM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590 ..HALBERT..07/11/26 ATTN...WFO...ILM...CAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC019-112240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLESTON AMZ256-340-360-112240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV TO 25 W CHS TO 45 SSE ILM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590 ..HALBERT..07/11/26 ATTN...WFO...ILM...CAE...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SCC019-112240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLESTON AMZ256-340-360-112240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM CHARLESTON HARBOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE FYV TO 30 E RUE TO 35 NE LIT TO 25 NNW MSL. ..HALBERT..07/11/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC029-045-071-077-083-085-095-105-115-117-119-123-127-149- 120040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONWAY FAULKNER JOHNSON LEE LOGAN LONOKE MONROE PERRY POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SCOTT YELL MSC003-009-033-093-117-137-139-141-143-120040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON DESOTO MARSHALL PRENTISS TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE FYV TO 30 E RUE TO 35 NE LIT TO 25 NNW MSL. ..HALBERT..07/11/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC029-045-071-077-083-085-095-105-115-117-119-123-127-149- 120040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONWAY FAULKNER JOHNSON LEE LOGAN LONOKE MONROE PERRY POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SCOTT YELL MSC003-009-033-093-117-137-139-141-143-120040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON DESOTO MARSHALL PRENTISS TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE FYV TO 30 E RUE TO 35 NE LIT TO 25 NNW MSL. ..HALBERT..07/11/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC029-045-071-077-083-085-095-105-115-117-119-123-127-149- 120040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CONWAY FAULKNER JOHNSON LEE LOGAN LONOKE MONROE PERRY POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SCOTT YELL MSC003-009-033-093-117-137-139-141-143-120040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON DESOTO MARSHALL PRENTISS TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 1593 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1593 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112223Z - 120030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe wind gusts will exist with ongoing storms this evening. The expected areal coverage of the threat will remain too limited to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch consideration. DISCUSSION...An ongoing band of thunderstorms from central San Miguel into northwest Guadalupe Counties has recently shown some signs of forward propagation with a radar-defined fine line preceding the parent updrafts by 5-10 miles. The ambient inflow air mass exhibits fairly large temperature-dewpoint spreads, resulting in a well-mixed boundary layer featuring steep lapse rates. While overall buoyancy is relatively meager, the presence of the steep lapse rates may yield locally strong to severe wind gusts, as depicted in some more recent model guidance. ..Mead/Thompson.. 07/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... LAT...LON 34880557 35250531 35540498 35700459 35550426 35110405 34870381 34420374 34180396 34040424 34030480 34300531 34880557 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1592 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1592 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Areas affected...Southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 112125Z - 112330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts is expected to increase across the discussion area late this afternoon through evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery indicate deepening cumulus and early thunderstorm development along the Gila and White Mountains within the southern periphery of an upper high located over UT and CO. The air mass across the lower elevations of southern Arizona is hot and somewhat moist with steep low/mid-level lapse rates yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Latest short-term model guidance indicates the developing storms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next 2-3 hours while spreading southwest into southeast and south-central AZ within an increasingly unstable environment. The current KEMX VWP is sampling a belt of enhanced easterly winds in the 4-6 km AGL layer, which, combined with the steep low-level lapse rates, will support the potential for cold pool organization and a related risk for severe wind gusts. ..Mead/Thompson.. 07/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31851197 32301195 32631149 33061074 33481000 33540965 33480942 32980916 32300916 31860920 31570955 31461027 31401094 31611177 31851197 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MEAD..07/11/26 ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC003-009-011-019-021-023-112340- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COCHISE GRAHAM GREENLEE PIMA PINAL SANTA CRUZ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 484 SEVERE TSTM AZ 112145Z - 120500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 484 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast and south central Arizona * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming on the higher terrain in southeast Arizona will spread west-southwestward into the lower deserts through late evening, with the potential for merging storm clusters. Severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph will be the main threat, though the strongest storms may also produce isolated large hail near 1 inch diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northwest of Safford AZ to 25 miles south southwest of Sierra Vista AZ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...WW 482...WW 483... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 6020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MEAD..07/11/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-037-039-047-051-053-071-073-081-083-087-097- 103-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-125-131-133-143-145-147-149- 112340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CREEK CUSTER GARFIELD GRADY GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MAYES NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 483 SEVERE TSTM OK 112015Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 483 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon into the early evening. Scattered severe gusts 60 to 75 mph are possible with the stronger microbursts and outflow winds. Isolated large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter is also possible through the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Chickasha OK to 40 miles east northeast of Tulsa OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...WW 482... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 32010. ...Smith Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591 ..HALBERT..07/11/26 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC023-029-035-037-045-063-067-071-077-083-085-095-101-105-111- 115-117-119-123-127-141-145-147-149-112340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLEBURNE CONWAY CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JOHNSON LEE LOGAN LONOKE MONROE NEWTON PERRY POINSETT POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SCOTT VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL MSC003-009-033-093-117-137-139-141-143-112340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON DESOTO MARSHALL PRENTISS TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA Read more

WW 482 SEVERE TSTM AR MO MS TN 111855Z - 120100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Arkansas Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An elongated band of intensifying thunderstorms is forecast to move east-southeast this afternoon into the early evening across the Watch. The stronger thunderstorms will pose a risk for severe gusts (60 to 70 mph). A few stronger storms over Arkansas may also yield a risk for large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Russellville AR to 50 miles east southeast of Jackson TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A strong upper high will develop and persist over the central/northern Plains into the Midwest through at least midweek. Upper-level troughing will continue near and off the Pacific Northwest coast with monsoonal moisture streaming northward across much of the Intermountain West early to midweek. Daily monsoonal thunderstorms are likely across the Southwest into the Great Basin, but an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies mid to late week that will help suppress moisture south and push it east late in the outlook period. A deep upper-level trough is likely to weaken the ridge over the Great Lakes as it moves into the Great Lakes and Northeast Day 4/Tuesday - Day 5/Wednesday. Monsoonal moisture (PWAT values of 0.8-1.5") is pushing west and north across the Great Basin, eastern California, and into portions of the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies. On the western/northern fringes of the deeper moisture, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms are likely. On Day 3/Monday, a 10% area for dry thunderstorms was introduced for portions of northeast California/vicinity and another 10% area was introduced on Day 4/Tuesday from far northern California into central/northeast Oregon. Forecast PWAT values of 0.8-1" and surface dewpoints of 35-50F will likely to lead to at least pockets of wetting rain. However, storm motions of 25-40 knots, probabilities of rainfall exceeding 0.1" mostly less than 30%, and receptive fuels lead to issuing the 10% areas. Additionally, deeper moisture will move out of these areas by mid-week with dry/breezy conditions likely to follow. Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are likely across portions of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, western Nebraska and eastern Colorado Day 3/Monday through at least Day 5/Wednesday. Fuels will rapidly cure amid these conditions leading to at least elevated conditions through mid-week. While RH will recover overnight, south-southeast winds are likely to remain breezy overnight. Dry and breezy conditions may spread into northeast Minnesota Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. Winds will be stronger on Day 3/Monday, but RH will be higher, while lower RH spreads into the area on Day 4/Tuesday with slightly weaker winds. Critical conditions are not expected, with locally elevated conditions more likely. ..Nauslar.. 07/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more