SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough shifts southward into the Great Basin as a
blocking ridge becomes established over the central U.S. by midweek.
A surface low develops across the northern High Plains on Day
3/Tuesday bringing fire weather concerns back into northeastern MT
as dry, southeasterly flow emerges. The upper trough across the West
and associated stronger southwesterly flow aloft should support an
enhanced fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest
through Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. The upper trough finally lifts
into Canada by the weekend, relieving much of the West of a
widespread dry and breezy regime.
...Day 3/Tuesday...
...Great Basin...
An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and associated deepening
surface cyclone in the Great Basin will support a fire weather
threat across portions of eastern NV into southwest UT and
northwestern AZ. A well-mixed boundary layer ahead of an approaching
cold front and accelerating mid-level flow should result in
southwest surface winds of 20-30 mph across the area. Near
critically dry fuels along with the low daytime RH and gusty
southwest winds necessitates continuation of the 40% critical
probability area.
...Northern High Plains...
Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee trough over
central MT is expected across much of the Northern Plains Day
3/Tuesday. Deeper low-level moisture should remain farther east over
the Dakotas allowing for a fire weather threat to develop across
northeastern MT where RH reductions fall close to 15%. A 40%
critical probability area has been introduced across northeastern MT
where dry fuels remain.
...Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday - Southwest...
Persistent deep layer southwesterly flow and dry conditions across
the Southwest will continue to promote a fire weather concern for
southern portions of UT into AZ on Day 4/Wednesday, with overall
threat shifting slightly eastward on Day 5/Thursday. A forecast
caveat of current 40% areas remains the forecast rainfall footprint
across the Southwest for the preceding Day 2-3/Monday-Tuesday time
frame. Modifications to these existing threat areas may be necessary
based on final rainfall distribution, particularly across NM.
..Williams.. 05/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough shifts southward into the Great Basin as a
blocking ridge becomes established over the central U.S. by midweek.
A surface low develops across the northern High Plains on Day
3/Tuesday bringing fire weather concerns back into northeastern MT
as dry, southeasterly flow emerges. The upper trough across the West
and associated stronger southwesterly flow aloft should support an
enhanced fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest
through Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. The upper trough finally lifts
into Canada by the weekend, relieving much of the West of a
widespread dry and breezy regime.
...Day 3/Tuesday...
...Great Basin...
An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and associated deepening
surface cyclone in the Great Basin will support a fire weather
threat across portions of eastern NV into southwest UT and
northwestern AZ. A well-mixed boundary layer ahead of an approaching
cold front and accelerating mid-level flow should result in
southwest surface winds of 20-30 mph across the area. Near
critically dry fuels along with the low daytime RH and gusty
southwest winds necessitates continuation of the 40% critical
probability area.
...Northern High Plains...
Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee trough over
central MT is expected across much of the Northern Plains Day
3/Tuesday. Deeper low-level moisture should remain farther east over
the Dakotas allowing for a fire weather threat to develop across
northeastern MT where RH reductions fall close to 15%. A 40%
critical probability area has been introduced across northeastern MT
where dry fuels remain.
...Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday - Southwest...
Persistent deep layer southwesterly flow and dry conditions across
the Southwest will continue to promote a fire weather concern for
southern portions of UT into AZ on Day 4/Wednesday, with overall
threat shifting slightly eastward on Day 5/Thursday. A forecast
caveat of current 40% areas remains the forecast rainfall footprint
across the Southwest for the preceding Day 2-3/Monday-Tuesday time
frame. Modifications to these existing threat areas may be necessary
based on final rainfall distribution, particularly across NM.
..Williams.. 05/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough shifts southward into the Great Basin as a
blocking ridge becomes established over the central U.S. by midweek.
A surface low develops across the northern High Plains on Day
3/Tuesday bringing fire weather concerns back into northeastern MT
as dry, southeasterly flow emerges. The upper trough across the West
and associated stronger southwesterly flow aloft should support an
enhanced fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest
through Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. The upper trough finally lifts
into Canada by the weekend, relieving much of the West of a
widespread dry and breezy regime.
...Day 3/Tuesday...
...Great Basin...
An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and associated deepening
surface cyclone in the Great Basin will support a fire weather
threat across portions of eastern NV into southwest UT and
northwestern AZ. A well-mixed boundary layer ahead of an approaching
cold front and accelerating mid-level flow should result in
southwest surface winds of 20-30 mph across the area. Near
critically dry fuels along with the low daytime RH and gusty
southwest winds necessitates continuation of the 40% critical
probability area.
...Northern High Plains...
Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee trough over
central MT is expected across much of the Northern Plains Day
3/Tuesday. Deeper low-level moisture should remain farther east over
the Dakotas allowing for a fire weather threat to develop across
northeastern MT where RH reductions fall close to 15%. A 40%
critical probability area has been introduced across northeastern MT
where dry fuels remain.
...Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday - Southwest...
Persistent deep layer southwesterly flow and dry conditions across
the Southwest will continue to promote a fire weather concern for
southern portions of UT into AZ on Day 4/Wednesday, with overall
threat shifting slightly eastward on Day 5/Thursday. A forecast
caveat of current 40% areas remains the forecast rainfall footprint
across the Southwest for the preceding Day 2-3/Monday-Tuesday time
frame. Modifications to these existing threat areas may be necessary
based on final rainfall distribution, particularly across NM.
..Williams.. 05/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 0847 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0847
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Areas affected...Western Kansas into southwest Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241905Z - 242100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible as
thunderstorms develop this afternoon. Limited coverage should
preclude watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Despite limited moisture, cumulus have been deepening
along the surface trough in far eastern Colorado and northwest
Kansas/southwest Nebraska. Temperatures are in the upper 80s to low
90s F. When modifying the 18Z observed LBF sounding for these
conditions, MLCIN is minimal. It is likely to take some time before
thunderstorms can develop/intensify as greater moisture/buoyancy
exists to the east of the current convection. Higher
temperature/dewpoint spreads suggests severe wind gusts will be the
primary hazard this afternoon. Greater confidence in storm
development exists from northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska as
moisture/shear are greater here.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 39079942 37880032 37510107 37480181 37710231 40500102
40680098 40840022 40619905 39649899 39079942
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of hail/wind may occur across the Middle
Missouri Valley/Siouxland later this afternoon into evening, with
isolated severe storms also possible this afternoon/early evening
across other parts of the central and southern Plains and Southeast.
...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms, with a few supercells, appear probable
across parts of the central High plains/Midwest late this afternoon
into this evening. Moderate buoyancy and 35-40 kt of effective shear
associated with west-northwesterly flow aloft could support
supercells capable of large hail in the presence of steep lapse
rates.
Elsewhere, moderate to strong buoyancy and weak shear will
predominate. Scattered thunderstorms over much of the Southeast and
North/central TX will be capable of sporadic damaging gusts with
downbursts. 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly over parts
of north TX where some convective clustering may occur along a prior
outflow boundary and ahead of a weak MCV. Otherwise, see the
previous discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 05/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/
...Middle Missouri Valley/Siouxland...
Limited/late-day-arriving forcing for ascent and modest-caliber
low-level moisture return by late May standards continues to temper
forecast confidence details. However, overall environment and
scenario appears to warrant a categorical Slight Risk centered on
Siouxland given some potential for supercells capable of large hail
later this afternoon through early/mid-evening.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over Montana will
eventually influence the region, but generally not until this
evening. Low-level moisture will modestly increase but be offset by
diurnal mixing, near/east of a deepening surface low near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity. Low-level convergence will maximize
in this corridor, including northeast Nebraska/southeast South
Dakota/far northwest Iowa and at least isolated late-day storm
development is plausible, if not probable. If/where storms do occur,
upwards of 35-40 kt of effective shear associated with
west-northwesterly flow aloft would support supercells capable of
large hail in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate
buoyancy. Additional and more elevated storm development over time
is expected farther north-northeast this evening into southern
Minnesota with some severe storms possible.
...Southeast States...
An MCV across Alabama will continue to spread east-northeastward and
influence thunderstorm development across Georgia toward South
Carolina and the southern Appalachians. The boundary layer will
continue to destabilize this afternoon and support the possibility
of isolated wind damage with the more robust storm development this
afternoon.
...North/central Texas...
Per visible satellite, ample insolation and heating of a moist
boundary layer will occur in the southern/eastern periphery of a
remnant mid-level low. While low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain
weak, sufficient heating and steep low-level lapse rates may support
some strong/locally severe pulse-type storms capable of downbursts,
and possibly a couple of instances of hail.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of hail/wind may occur across the Middle
Missouri Valley/Siouxland later this afternoon into evening, with
isolated severe storms also possible this afternoon/early evening
across other parts of the central and southern Plains and Southeast.
...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms, with a few supercells, appear probable
across parts of the central High plains/Midwest late this afternoon
into this evening. Moderate buoyancy and 35-40 kt of effective shear
associated with west-northwesterly flow aloft could support
supercells capable of large hail in the presence of steep lapse
rates.
Elsewhere, moderate to strong buoyancy and weak shear will
predominate. Scattered thunderstorms over much of the Southeast and
North/central TX will be capable of sporadic damaging gusts with
downbursts. 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly over parts
of north TX where some convective clustering may occur along a prior
outflow boundary and ahead of a weak MCV. Otherwise, see the
previous discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 05/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/
...Middle Missouri Valley/Siouxland...
Limited/late-day-arriving forcing for ascent and modest-caliber
low-level moisture return by late May standards continues to temper
forecast confidence details. However, overall environment and
scenario appears to warrant a categorical Slight Risk centered on
Siouxland given some potential for supercells capable of large hail
later this afternoon through early/mid-evening.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over Montana will
eventually influence the region, but generally not until this
evening. Low-level moisture will modestly increase but be offset by
diurnal mixing, near/east of a deepening surface low near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity. Low-level convergence will maximize
in this corridor, including northeast Nebraska/southeast South
Dakota/far northwest Iowa and at least isolated late-day storm
development is plausible, if not probable. If/where storms do occur,
upwards of 35-40 kt of effective shear associated with
west-northwesterly flow aloft would support supercells capable of
large hail in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate
buoyancy. Additional and more elevated storm development over time
is expected farther north-northeast this evening into southern
Minnesota with some severe storms possible.
...Southeast States...
An MCV across Alabama will continue to spread east-northeastward and
influence thunderstorm development across Georgia toward South
Carolina and the southern Appalachians. The boundary layer will
continue to destabilize this afternoon and support the possibility
of isolated wind damage with the more robust storm development this
afternoon.
...North/central Texas...
Per visible satellite, ample insolation and heating of a moist
boundary layer will occur in the southern/eastern periphery of a
remnant mid-level low. While low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain
weak, sufficient heating and steep low-level lapse rates may support
some strong/locally severe pulse-type storms capable of downbursts,
and possibly a couple of instances of hail.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of hail/wind may occur across the Middle
Missouri Valley/Siouxland later this afternoon into evening, with
isolated severe storms also possible this afternoon/early evening
across other parts of the central and southern Plains and Southeast.
...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms, with a few supercells, appear probable
across parts of the central High plains/Midwest late this afternoon
into this evening. Moderate buoyancy and 35-40 kt of effective shear
associated with west-northwesterly flow aloft could support
supercells capable of large hail in the presence of steep lapse
rates.
Elsewhere, moderate to strong buoyancy and weak shear will
predominate. Scattered thunderstorms over much of the Southeast and
North/central TX will be capable of sporadic damaging gusts with
downbursts. 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly over parts
of north TX where some convective clustering may occur along a prior
outflow boundary and ahead of a weak MCV. Otherwise, see the
previous discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 05/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/
...Middle Missouri Valley/Siouxland...
Limited/late-day-arriving forcing for ascent and modest-caliber
low-level moisture return by late May standards continues to temper
forecast confidence details. However, overall environment and
scenario appears to warrant a categorical Slight Risk centered on
Siouxland given some potential for supercells capable of large hail
later this afternoon through early/mid-evening.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over Montana will
eventually influence the region, but generally not until this
evening. Low-level moisture will modestly increase but be offset by
diurnal mixing, near/east of a deepening surface low near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity. Low-level convergence will maximize
in this corridor, including northeast Nebraska/southeast South
Dakota/far northwest Iowa and at least isolated late-day storm
development is plausible, if not probable. If/where storms do occur,
upwards of 35-40 kt of effective shear associated with
west-northwesterly flow aloft would support supercells capable of
large hail in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate
buoyancy. Additional and more elevated storm development over time
is expected farther north-northeast this evening into southern
Minnesota with some severe storms possible.
...Southeast States...
An MCV across Alabama will continue to spread east-northeastward and
influence thunderstorm development across Georgia toward South
Carolina and the southern Appalachians. The boundary layer will
continue to destabilize this afternoon and support the possibility
of isolated wind damage with the more robust storm development this
afternoon.
...North/central Texas...
Per visible satellite, ample insolation and heating of a moist
boundary layer will occur in the southern/eastern periphery of a
remnant mid-level low. While low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain
weak, sufficient heating and steep low-level lapse rates may support
some strong/locally severe pulse-type storms capable of downbursts,
and possibly a couple of instances of hail.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of hail/wind may occur across the Middle
Missouri Valley/Siouxland later this afternoon into evening, with
isolated severe storms also possible this afternoon/early evening
across other parts of the central and southern Plains and Southeast.
...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms, with a few supercells, appear probable
across parts of the central High plains/Midwest late this afternoon
into this evening. Moderate buoyancy and 35-40 kt of effective shear
associated with west-northwesterly flow aloft could support
supercells capable of large hail in the presence of steep lapse
rates.
Elsewhere, moderate to strong buoyancy and weak shear will
predominate. Scattered thunderstorms over much of the Southeast and
North/central TX will be capable of sporadic damaging gusts with
downbursts. 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly over parts
of north TX where some convective clustering may occur along a prior
outflow boundary and ahead of a weak MCV. Otherwise, see the
previous discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 05/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/
...Middle Missouri Valley/Siouxland...
Limited/late-day-arriving forcing for ascent and modest-caliber
low-level moisture return by late May standards continues to temper
forecast confidence details. However, overall environment and
scenario appears to warrant a categorical Slight Risk centered on
Siouxland given some potential for supercells capable of large hail
later this afternoon through early/mid-evening.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over Montana will
eventually influence the region, but generally not until this
evening. Low-level moisture will modestly increase but be offset by
diurnal mixing, near/east of a deepening surface low near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity. Low-level convergence will maximize
in this corridor, including northeast Nebraska/southeast South
Dakota/far northwest Iowa and at least isolated late-day storm
development is plausible, if not probable. If/where storms do occur,
upwards of 35-40 kt of effective shear associated with
west-northwesterly flow aloft would support supercells capable of
large hail in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate
buoyancy. Additional and more elevated storm development over time
is expected farther north-northeast this evening into southern
Minnesota with some severe storms possible.
...Southeast States...
An MCV across Alabama will continue to spread east-northeastward and
influence thunderstorm development across Georgia toward South
Carolina and the southern Appalachians. The boundary layer will
continue to destabilize this afternoon and support the possibility
of isolated wind damage with the more robust storm development this
afternoon.
...North/central Texas...
Per visible satellite, ample insolation and heating of a moist
boundary layer will occur in the southern/eastern periphery of a
remnant mid-level low. While low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain
weak, sufficient heating and steep low-level lapse rates may support
some strong/locally severe pulse-type storms capable of downbursts,
and possibly a couple of instances of hail.
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of hail/wind may occur across the Middle
Missouri Valley/Siouxland later this afternoon into evening, with
isolated severe storms also possible this afternoon/early evening
across other parts of the central and southern Plains and Southeast.
...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms, with a few supercells, appear probable
across parts of the central High plains/Midwest late this afternoon
into this evening. Moderate buoyancy and 35-40 kt of effective shear
associated with west-northwesterly flow aloft could support
supercells capable of large hail in the presence of steep lapse
rates.
Elsewhere, moderate to strong buoyancy and weak shear will
predominate. Scattered thunderstorms over much of the Southeast and
North/central TX will be capable of sporadic damaging gusts with
downbursts. 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly over parts
of north TX where some convective clustering may occur along a prior
outflow boundary and ahead of a weak MCV. Otherwise, see the
previous discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 05/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/
...Middle Missouri Valley/Siouxland...
Limited/late-day-arriving forcing for ascent and modest-caliber
low-level moisture return by late May standards continues to temper
forecast confidence details. However, overall environment and
scenario appears to warrant a categorical Slight Risk centered on
Siouxland given some potential for supercells capable of large hail
later this afternoon through early/mid-evening.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over Montana will
eventually influence the region, but generally not until this
evening. Low-level moisture will modestly increase but be offset by
diurnal mixing, near/east of a deepening surface low near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity. Low-level convergence will maximize
in this corridor, including northeast Nebraska/southeast South
Dakota/far northwest Iowa and at least isolated late-day storm
development is plausible, if not probable. If/where storms do occur,
upwards of 35-40 kt of effective shear associated with
west-northwesterly flow aloft would support supercells capable of
large hail in the presence of steep lapse rates and moderate
buoyancy. Additional and more elevated storm development over time
is expected farther north-northeast this evening into southern
Minnesota with some severe storms possible.
...Southeast States...
An MCV across Alabama will continue to spread east-northeastward and
influence thunderstorm development across Georgia toward South
Carolina and the southern Appalachians. The boundary layer will
continue to destabilize this afternoon and support the possibility
of isolated wind damage with the more robust storm development this
afternoon.
...North/central Texas...
Per visible satellite, ample insolation and heating of a moist
boundary layer will occur in the southern/eastern periphery of a
remnant mid-level low. While low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain
weak, sufficient heating and steep low-level lapse rates may support
some strong/locally severe pulse-type storms capable of downbursts,
and possibly a couple of instances of hail.
Read more
MD 0846 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF GEORGIA...EASTERN ALABAMA...INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0846
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Areas affected...Much of Georgia...eastern Alabama... into far
western South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241755Z - 242000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for occasional
damaging gusts this afternoon. Storm organization will be limited
and a WW is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, visible and radar imagery showed
thunderstorms increasing in coverage over eastern AL, FL and much of
GA. Ample heating is occurring within a very moist air mass (70s F
dewpoints) supporting moderate instability. While low and mid-level
flow are quite weak, locally stronger convergence is occurring near
a broad MCV along the AL/GA border. This will continue to serve as a
focus for convective development this afternoon, with additional
storms likely to develop within the warm sector as convective
temperatures are breached. One or more clusters of stronger storms
appears plausible, with convection gradually spreading
east/northeastward into SC this afternoon/evening.
Given the very weak vertical shear, pulse multicellular storms are
the expected mode. Heavy water loading (PWATS near or exceeding 2
inches) will favor damaging gust potential with the stronger
downdrafts. But, the lack of broader upper air support and very weak
shear suggests the threat will be isolated and dependent on
favorable outflow interactions and storm-scale clustering. With the
severe potential likely to be sporadic, a WW is very unlikely.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 30518351 30548433 31028490 32578573 33828614 34678570
34698508 34358418 34418243 33888139 32748127 32338138
31588149 30958197 30668262 30518351
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into
southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this
region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be
possible.
...Parts of west TX and southeast NM...
No major changes have been made to the Slight Risk area. A broad
negative-tilt mid/upper trough with multiple embedded vorticity
maxima will impinge upon relatively rich moisture and moderate to
locally strong buoyancy across parts of west TX and southeast NM on
Tuesday. Weak capping and increasingly difluent flow aloft will
likely lead to multiple rounds of thunderstorms through the day and
into Tuesday night. Low-level southeasterly flow veering to modest
southwesterlies aloft will result in 30-40 kt of effective shear,
supporting potential for organized clusters and a few supercells.
Large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest
storms. Gradually increasing low-level shear/SRH could also support
some tornado threat from afternoon into the evening.
Convection could spread into a larger portion of south-central TX by
Tuesday night, though decreasing shear and increasing low-level
stability with eastward extent should lead to an eventual weakening
trend. The Marginal Risk was expanded eastward somewhat to account
for isolated severe potential into late evening.
...Central/western MT and adjacent parts of northern ID...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the day/evening from
parts of northern ID into western/central MT, in association with a
mid/upper-level low/trough over the Pacific Northwest. Moisture and
instability will likely remain modest at best, but increasing
deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms, with a threat of
localized severe gusts and marginally severe hail.
..Dean.. 05/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into
southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this
region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be
possible.
...Parts of west TX and southeast NM...
No major changes have been made to the Slight Risk area. A broad
negative-tilt mid/upper trough with multiple embedded vorticity
maxima will impinge upon relatively rich moisture and moderate to
locally strong buoyancy across parts of west TX and southeast NM on
Tuesday. Weak capping and increasingly difluent flow aloft will
likely lead to multiple rounds of thunderstorms through the day and
into Tuesday night. Low-level southeasterly flow veering to modest
southwesterlies aloft will result in 30-40 kt of effective shear,
supporting potential for organized clusters and a few supercells.
Large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest
storms. Gradually increasing low-level shear/SRH could also support
some tornado threat from afternoon into the evening.
Convection could spread into a larger portion of south-central TX by
Tuesday night, though decreasing shear and increasing low-level
stability with eastward extent should lead to an eventual weakening
trend. The Marginal Risk was expanded eastward somewhat to account
for isolated severe potential into late evening.
...Central/western MT and adjacent parts of northern ID...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the day/evening from
parts of northern ID into western/central MT, in association with a
mid/upper-level low/trough over the Pacific Northwest. Moisture and
instability will likely remain modest at best, but increasing
deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms, with a threat of
localized severe gusts and marginally severe hail.
..Dean.. 05/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into
southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this
region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be
possible.
...Parts of west TX and southeast NM...
No major changes have been made to the Slight Risk area. A broad
negative-tilt mid/upper trough with multiple embedded vorticity
maxima will impinge upon relatively rich moisture and moderate to
locally strong buoyancy across parts of west TX and southeast NM on
Tuesday. Weak capping and increasingly difluent flow aloft will
likely lead to multiple rounds of thunderstorms through the day and
into Tuesday night. Low-level southeasterly flow veering to modest
southwesterlies aloft will result in 30-40 kt of effective shear,
supporting potential for organized clusters and a few supercells.
Large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest
storms. Gradually increasing low-level shear/SRH could also support
some tornado threat from afternoon into the evening.
Convection could spread into a larger portion of south-central TX by
Tuesday night, though decreasing shear and increasing low-level
stability with eastward extent should lead to an eventual weakening
trend. The Marginal Risk was expanded eastward somewhat to account
for isolated severe potential into late evening.
...Central/western MT and adjacent parts of northern ID...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the day/evening from
parts of northern ID into western/central MT, in association with a
mid/upper-level low/trough over the Pacific Northwest. Moisture and
instability will likely remain modest at best, but increasing
deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms, with a threat of
localized severe gusts and marginally severe hail.
..Dean.. 05/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into
southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this
region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be
possible.
...Parts of west TX and southeast NM...
No major changes have been made to the Slight Risk area. A broad
negative-tilt mid/upper trough with multiple embedded vorticity
maxima will impinge upon relatively rich moisture and moderate to
locally strong buoyancy across parts of west TX and southeast NM on
Tuesday. Weak capping and increasingly difluent flow aloft will
likely lead to multiple rounds of thunderstorms through the day and
into Tuesday night. Low-level southeasterly flow veering to modest
southwesterlies aloft will result in 30-40 kt of effective shear,
supporting potential for organized clusters and a few supercells.
Large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest
storms. Gradually increasing low-level shear/SRH could also support
some tornado threat from afternoon into the evening.
Convection could spread into a larger portion of south-central TX by
Tuesday night, though decreasing shear and increasing low-level
stability with eastward extent should lead to an eventual weakening
trend. The Marginal Risk was expanded eastward somewhat to account
for isolated severe potential into late evening.
...Central/western MT and adjacent parts of northern ID...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the day/evening from
parts of northern ID into western/central MT, in association with a
mid/upper-level low/trough over the Pacific Northwest. Moisture and
instability will likely remain modest at best, but increasing
deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms, with a threat of
localized severe gusts and marginally severe hail.
..Dean.. 05/24/2026
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible across western Texas into
southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon and evening. Across this
region, large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado will be
possible.
...Parts of west TX and southeast NM...
No major changes have been made to the Slight Risk area. A broad
negative-tilt mid/upper trough with multiple embedded vorticity
maxima will impinge upon relatively rich moisture and moderate to
locally strong buoyancy across parts of west TX and southeast NM on
Tuesday. Weak capping and increasingly difluent flow aloft will
likely lead to multiple rounds of thunderstorms through the day and
into Tuesday night. Low-level southeasterly flow veering to modest
southwesterlies aloft will result in 30-40 kt of effective shear,
supporting potential for organized clusters and a few supercells.
Large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest
storms. Gradually increasing low-level shear/SRH could also support
some tornado threat from afternoon into the evening.
Convection could spread into a larger portion of south-central TX by
Tuesday night, though decreasing shear and increasing low-level
stability with eastward extent should lead to an eventual weakening
trend. The Marginal Risk was expanded eastward somewhat to account
for isolated severe potential into late evening.
...Central/western MT and adjacent parts of northern ID...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the day/evening from
parts of northern ID into western/central MT, in association with a
mid/upper-level low/trough over the Pacific Northwest. Moisture and
instability will likely remain modest at best, but increasing
deep-layer shear could support a few strong storms, with a threat of
localized severe gusts and marginally severe hail.
..Dean.. 05/24/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...
...Great Basin...
Minor adjustments to the Critical highlights were made based on
latest model guidance. Forecast remains largely on track with strong
southwesterly pre-frontal winds of 15-25 mph affecting northwest
portions of the Great Basin as a robust upper trough enters the
Pacific Northwest. The breezy southwest winds combined with RH
reductions as low as 15% and cured/drying lower elevation fuels will
result in a critical fire weather threat for southeastern OR and
northwestern NV on Monday.
...Southwest...
A mid/upper trough and associated northward moisture transport
shifts into the Southwest Monday, bringing isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms over receptive fuels across much of the
northeastern AZ into far southeastern AZ and adjacent NM.
Thunderstorms will initially be high-based, with a dry boundary
layer supporting evaporation of nascent rain cores. Latest forecast
guidance suggests more robust boundary layer moistening and
prolonged convective event across west-central NM and far
east-central AZ where wetting rains are more likely, with local
accumulations of 0.50" possible. Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
Highlights have been removed based on these higher expected rainfall
amounts. High-based thunderstorm development should still be primary
convective mode along and south of the Mogollon Rim and fringes of
the deeper subtropical moisture across the lower elevation areas of
southeastern AZ/southwestern NM, where isolated Dry Thunderstorm
Highlights remain.
..Williams.. 05/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough will move onshore of the Pacific Northwest
on D2/Monday as a second mid-level trough transitions northeastward
across northern New England. Weak troughing will also persist across
the lower Mississippi Valley/southern Plains and across the
Southwest. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will remain in place
across the Southeast and central/northern Plains. A surface low will
track offshore of New England, with a trailing cold front
progressing through the Mid-Atlantic before extending southwestward
into the southern Plains. A cold front will also begin to advance
eastward across the Pacific Northwest in tandem with a deepening
surface low.
...Great Basin...
A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the approaching
cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface winds of
20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH values of
10-15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that fuels are
becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this region. Thus,
these conditions are expected to support a corridor of critical fire
weather concerns from northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon
Monday afternoon. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph
overlapping reduced RH of 15-25% will also promote elevated fire
weather conditions across adjacent areas of the Great Basin.
...Southwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying subtropical moisture
plume will contribute to weak buoyancy atop well-mixed boundary
layer profiles. This is expected to support widely scattered,
high-based convection across much of northeastern Arizona and
western New Mexico Monday afternoon. PWAT values ranging from
0.4-0.7" (locally up to 1") and more marginal LCLs ranging from 2-3+
km AGL will likely favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Given
that fuels across the region remain quite dry (ERCs around the 90th
percentile), isolated lightning ignitions remain possible. Thus, the
10% dry thunderstorm probability has been maintained for this
update.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...
...Great Basin...
Minor adjustments to the Critical highlights were made based on
latest model guidance. Forecast remains largely on track with strong
southwesterly pre-frontal winds of 15-25 mph affecting northwest
portions of the Great Basin as a robust upper trough enters the
Pacific Northwest. The breezy southwest winds combined with RH
reductions as low as 15% and cured/drying lower elevation fuels will
result in a critical fire weather threat for southeastern OR and
northwestern NV on Monday.
...Southwest...
A mid/upper trough and associated northward moisture transport
shifts into the Southwest Monday, bringing isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms over receptive fuels across much of the
northeastern AZ into far southeastern AZ and adjacent NM.
Thunderstorms will initially be high-based, with a dry boundary
layer supporting evaporation of nascent rain cores. Latest forecast
guidance suggests more robust boundary layer moistening and
prolonged convective event across west-central NM and far
east-central AZ where wetting rains are more likely, with local
accumulations of 0.50" possible. Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
Highlights have been removed based on these higher expected rainfall
amounts. High-based thunderstorm development should still be primary
convective mode along and south of the Mogollon Rim and fringes of
the deeper subtropical moisture across the lower elevation areas of
southeastern AZ/southwestern NM, where isolated Dry Thunderstorm
Highlights remain.
..Williams.. 05/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough will move onshore of the Pacific Northwest
on D2/Monday as a second mid-level trough transitions northeastward
across northern New England. Weak troughing will also persist across
the lower Mississippi Valley/southern Plains and across the
Southwest. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will remain in place
across the Southeast and central/northern Plains. A surface low will
track offshore of New England, with a trailing cold front
progressing through the Mid-Atlantic before extending southwestward
into the southern Plains. A cold front will also begin to advance
eastward across the Pacific Northwest in tandem with a deepening
surface low.
...Great Basin...
A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the approaching
cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface winds of
20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH values of
10-15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that fuels are
becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this region. Thus,
these conditions are expected to support a corridor of critical fire
weather concerns from northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon
Monday afternoon. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph
overlapping reduced RH of 15-25% will also promote elevated fire
weather conditions across adjacent areas of the Great Basin.
...Southwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying subtropical moisture
plume will contribute to weak buoyancy atop well-mixed boundary
layer profiles. This is expected to support widely scattered,
high-based convection across much of northeastern Arizona and
western New Mexico Monday afternoon. PWAT values ranging from
0.4-0.7" (locally up to 1") and more marginal LCLs ranging from 2-3+
km AGL will likely favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Given
that fuels across the region remain quite dry (ERCs around the 90th
percentile), isolated lightning ignitions remain possible. Thus, the
10% dry thunderstorm probability has been maintained for this
update.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...
...Great Basin...
Minor adjustments to the Critical highlights were made based on
latest model guidance. Forecast remains largely on track with strong
southwesterly pre-frontal winds of 15-25 mph affecting northwest
portions of the Great Basin as a robust upper trough enters the
Pacific Northwest. The breezy southwest winds combined with RH
reductions as low as 15% and cured/drying lower elevation fuels will
result in a critical fire weather threat for southeastern OR and
northwestern NV on Monday.
...Southwest...
A mid/upper trough and associated northward moisture transport
shifts into the Southwest Monday, bringing isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms over receptive fuels across much of the
northeastern AZ into far southeastern AZ and adjacent NM.
Thunderstorms will initially be high-based, with a dry boundary
layer supporting evaporation of nascent rain cores. Latest forecast
guidance suggests more robust boundary layer moistening and
prolonged convective event across west-central NM and far
east-central AZ where wetting rains are more likely, with local
accumulations of 0.50" possible. Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
Highlights have been removed based on these higher expected rainfall
amounts. High-based thunderstorm development should still be primary
convective mode along and south of the Mogollon Rim and fringes of
the deeper subtropical moisture across the lower elevation areas of
southeastern AZ/southwestern NM, where isolated Dry Thunderstorm
Highlights remain.
..Williams.. 05/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough will move onshore of the Pacific Northwest
on D2/Monday as a second mid-level trough transitions northeastward
across northern New England. Weak troughing will also persist across
the lower Mississippi Valley/southern Plains and across the
Southwest. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will remain in place
across the Southeast and central/northern Plains. A surface low will
track offshore of New England, with a trailing cold front
progressing through the Mid-Atlantic before extending southwestward
into the southern Plains. A cold front will also begin to advance
eastward across the Pacific Northwest in tandem with a deepening
surface low.
...Great Basin...
A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the approaching
cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface winds of
20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH values of
10-15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that fuels are
becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this region. Thus,
these conditions are expected to support a corridor of critical fire
weather concerns from northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon
Monday afternoon. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph
overlapping reduced RH of 15-25% will also promote elevated fire
weather conditions across adjacent areas of the Great Basin.
...Southwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying subtropical moisture
plume will contribute to weak buoyancy atop well-mixed boundary
layer profiles. This is expected to support widely scattered,
high-based convection across much of northeastern Arizona and
western New Mexico Monday afternoon. PWAT values ranging from
0.4-0.7" (locally up to 1") and more marginal LCLs ranging from 2-3+
km AGL will likely favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Given
that fuels across the region remain quite dry (ERCs around the 90th
percentile), isolated lightning ignitions remain possible. Thus, the
10% dry thunderstorm probability has been maintained for this
update.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...
...Great Basin...
Minor adjustments to the Critical highlights were made based on
latest model guidance. Forecast remains largely on track with strong
southwesterly pre-frontal winds of 15-25 mph affecting northwest
portions of the Great Basin as a robust upper trough enters the
Pacific Northwest. The breezy southwest winds combined with RH
reductions as low as 15% and cured/drying lower elevation fuels will
result in a critical fire weather threat for southeastern OR and
northwestern NV on Monday.
...Southwest...
A mid/upper trough and associated northward moisture transport
shifts into the Southwest Monday, bringing isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms over receptive fuels across much of the
northeastern AZ into far southeastern AZ and adjacent NM.
Thunderstorms will initially be high-based, with a dry boundary
layer supporting evaporation of nascent rain cores. Latest forecast
guidance suggests more robust boundary layer moistening and
prolonged convective event across west-central NM and far
east-central AZ where wetting rains are more likely, with local
accumulations of 0.50" possible. Isolated Dry Thunderstorm
Highlights have been removed based on these higher expected rainfall
amounts. High-based thunderstorm development should still be primary
convective mode along and south of the Mogollon Rim and fringes of
the deeper subtropical moisture across the lower elevation areas of
southeastern AZ/southwestern NM, where isolated Dry Thunderstorm
Highlights remain.
..Williams.. 05/24/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough will move onshore of the Pacific Northwest
on D2/Monday as a second mid-level trough transitions northeastward
across northern New England. Weak troughing will also persist across
the lower Mississippi Valley/southern Plains and across the
Southwest. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will remain in place
across the Southeast and central/northern Plains. A surface low will
track offshore of New England, with a trailing cold front
progressing through the Mid-Atlantic before extending southwestward
into the southern Plains. A cold front will also begin to advance
eastward across the Pacific Northwest in tandem with a deepening
surface low.
...Great Basin...
A strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the approaching
cold front will promote sustained southwesterly surface winds of
20-25 mph, with above normal temperatures and minimum RH values of
10-15% also expected. Recent fire activity suggests that fuels are
becoming more receptive to wildfire spread across this region. Thus,
these conditions are expected to support a corridor of critical fire
weather concerns from northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon
Monday afternoon. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph
overlapping reduced RH of 15-25% will also promote elevated fire
weather conditions across adjacent areas of the Great Basin.
...Southwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying subtropical moisture
plume will contribute to weak buoyancy atop well-mixed boundary
layer profiles. This is expected to support widely scattered,
high-based convection across much of northeastern Arizona and
western New Mexico Monday afternoon. PWAT values ranging from
0.4-0.7" (locally up to 1") and more marginal LCLs ranging from 2-3+
km AGL will likely favor a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. Given
that fuels across the region remain quite dry (ERCs around the 90th
percentile), isolated lightning ignitions remain possible. Thus, the
10% dry thunderstorm probability has been maintained for this
update.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
