SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
OZARKS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today from
parts of Ozarks eastward into the mid Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys. Severe wind gusts are also possible in southeast Arizona. A
few severe gusts may also occur in the southern Plains and from the
southern Appalachians to the Atlantic Seaboard.
...Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/Ozarks/Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, a very moist airmass will
be in place from the Ozarks eastward into the Tennessee Valley,
where dewpoints will be in the 70s F. Low-level convergence is
expected to increase by early afternoon ahead of the shortwave
trough in the mid Mississippi Valley. This combined with large-scale
ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will support scattered
thunderstorm development in the afternoon from eastern Missouri into
southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Additional storms may
develop along an east-to-west axis of low-level convergence from far
northern Arkansas into western and middle Tennessee. As surface
temperatures warm today, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to
3000 J/kg range over much of this airmass, with 0-6 km shear in the
20 to 30 knot range. This, along with steep low-level lapse rates,
will be favorable for severe wind gusts with the stronger
multicells. The threat should be concentrated in the afternoon and
early evening.
Additional more isolated storms are expected to form this afternoon
from the Texas Panhandle eastward into Oklahoma. Moderate
instability and steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated
threat for severe gusts, mainly in the late afternoon.
...Southeast Arizona...
A moist airmass will be in place over southern Arizona today with
surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures warm,
moderate instability will likely develop over much of southeastern
Arizona, where SBCAPE should peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range.
Thunderstorms are expected to form along a north-to-south corridor
of low-level convergence near the Arizona and New Mexico state line,
with storms moving westward across southeast Arizona. At 00Z, RAP
forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear near 25 knots, with 0-3 km
lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This environment will be
favorable for severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells,
especially if an organized line can develop.
...Southern Appalachians to Atlantic Seaboard...
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the southern
Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, where surface
dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of
the region. Thunderstorms that form in the higher terrain and along
zones of convergence will have potential for isolated severe gusts.
The threat will be concentrated in the late afternoon as instability
and low-level lapse rates become maximized.
..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/11/2026
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid
Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Arizona.
...Central High Plains into the Central Plains...
A similar thermodynamic environment to yesterday is expected across
the central Rockies today, with scattered afternoon thunderstorm
development anticipated. The presence of a low-amplitude shortwave
trough could lead to greater storm coverage today versus yesterday.
Moist post-frontal easterlies will help offset mixing across much of
the region, keeping dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s across
east-central/northeast CO, with higher dewpoints farther east into
southern NE and western/central KS. Moderate westerly flow aloft
will support organized storm structures into this more buoyant
environment, with an attendant threat for strong to severe gusts
with the stronger bowing segments. There is some potential for a
contiguous line of storms from the NE Panhandle across eastern CO if
widespread cold pool amalgamation is realized. Uncertainty regarding
convective evolution precludes higher probabilities with this
outlook, but increased probabilities may be needed later if forecast
confidence increases.
...Northern Plains...
A somewhat separate convective regime is expected across the
northern Plains versus farther south. Here, strong heating of a
moist airmass beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support
robust buoyancy this afternoon, with MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg
anticipated. The better forcing for ascent will remain north of the
region and some convective inhibition may linger, but convergence
along a modest cold front and/or pre-frontal trough/low will likely
result in at least isolated thunderstorms. Strong buoyancy combined
with effective bulk shear around 30-35 kt should support a few
supercells. Large to isolated very large hail and strong downdrafts
are possible within the more organized storms.
...Lower MO Valley into the Lower OH Valley...
An MCS is currently tracking southeastward through central MO, with
occasionally strong gusts noted on its leading edge. Continued
eastward progression away from the low-level jet, coupled with the
decreasing strength of the jet, will likely lead to a weakening of
this MCS this morning. However, the moist airmass downstream will
diurnally destabilize, likely resulting in a reintensification of
the MCS and/or development of new storms along its leading edge.
Additional development is possible in the wake of this MCS, amid
low-level moisture convergence along a potential differential
heating boundary. Vertical shear will be weak, but moderate/strong
buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong cold
pools and the potential for damaging gusts.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A moist airmass will remain in place across the Mid-Atlantic today,
characterized by afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Airmass destabilization is expected by the early afternoon, with
moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg)
likely. A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently over TN/KY is
forecast to progress northeastward, interacting with the moist and
unstable airmass to support thunderstorms. While the thermodynamic
characteristics of the airmass remain similar to the last few days,
increased large-scale ascent and slightly stronger mid-level flow
attendant to the shortwave will likely support greater storm
coverage and intensity. Moderate vertical shear will support a
predominantly outflow-dominant multicellular mode, with damaging
wind gusts as the primary risk, particularly in areas where few
clouds allow for more heating and steeper low-level lapse rates.
...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
Moderate westerly/southwesterly flow aloft at the base of a
shortwave trough moving across Ontario and Quebec will extend from
the Lower Great Lakes region through New England this afternoon. A
modest cold front associated with the shortwave will shift
eastward/southeastward into the region as well, interacting with the
warm, moist and unstable airmass in place to support scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon. Poor mid-level lapse rates will keep
buoyancy modest, but the moderate westerly/southwesterly flow aloft
could still support some stronger bowing segments capable of
damaging gusts.
...Southeast Arizona...
Mid-level moisture will support afternoon thunderstorm development
across the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM.
Southwestward storm motion associated with modest mid-level
easterly/northeasterly flow could take a few of these storms into
the hot and deeply mixed airmass across southeast AZ. Strong
downdrafts are possible with any stronger storms.
..Mosier/Thornton.. 07/09/2026
Read more
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind
gusts and some hail, may evolve in a corridor across parts of the
south central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley Friday
afternoon and evening.
...Discussion...
Latest model output indicates little general change from prior runs.
To the southeast of a vigorous short wave trough digging offshore of
the southern British Columbia coast, it appears that an increasingly
prominent mid/upper-level high will begin to form across portions of
the Colorado Valley/Plateau through southern Rockies vicinity late
Friday through Friday night. Ridging to the north of the high is
also forecast to continue building along an axis across the northern
U.S. Great Plains into eastern Canadian Prairies, while downstream
positively tilted larger-scale troughing gradually shifts into and
across the northern Atlantic Seaboard.
The evolution of remnant weak troughing across the central Great
Plains into lower Missouri Valley remains much more unclear, based
on continuing varied model solutions However, a belt of westerlies
to its south may remain convectively augmented in lower/mid-levels,
though perhaps weaker than Thursday.
The potential for at least moderate destabilization remains most
certain along the southern periphery of this regime, aided by a
corridor of steeper lower through mid-tropospheric lapse rates
associated with elevated mixed-layer air (probably based closer to
850 mb than 700 mb), above a seasonably moist boundary-layer. The
latitude at which this will become focused remains a bit uncertain,
and by late Friday afternoon will largely depend on where outflow
from prior convection ends up and the extent to which it modifies.
However, corridors of stronger differential heating and developing
low-level warm advection might contribute to an environment
conducive to the evolution of at least small organizing clusters
with potential to produce severe wind and hail across eastern
portions of the central Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley
through Friday evening.
In the wake of the eastward migrating weak mid-level trough,
convection-allowing guidance suggests that easterly low-level flow
into portions of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
Raton Mesa/ridge vicinity will be sufficiently moist and unstable,
in the presence of steep lapse rates, to support scattered strong
thunderstorm development. Some of these may become capable of
producing severe hail and wind.
..Kerr.. 07/09/2026
Read more
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid
Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Arizona.
...Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the central and
northern Plains today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable
airmass will be in place from the Dakotas southward into Nebraska,
where surface dewpoints will mostly be in the 60s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across much of
the region. Along and near the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast
to increase into the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. As instability peaks
late this afternoon, low-level convergence will likely become
maximized along a surface trough from the western Dakotas southward
into eastern Colorado. This will aid convective initiation, with
several clusters developing and moving eastward across the central
and northern High Plains. In the vicinity of the instability axis,
moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rate will
support a threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible
across parts of central and northern North Dakota where instability
and deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells.
Further south into parts of western and central Kansas, an
east-to-west axis of low-level moisture will be in place. Some model
forecasts suggest that an organized line of storms will develop and
move eastward along this axis during the early to mid evening.
Severe wind gusts will be possible with this line of storms.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley...
A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Ozarks eastward
into the lower Ohio Valley, where surface dewpoints will be in the
mid to upper 70s F. In response to surface heating, moderate to
strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon across parts
of the mid Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions have an axis of
low-level convergence located from central Missouri eastward to
southern Indiana, suggesting that convective coverage could be
maximized along this corridor. The instability, along with steep low
to mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for severe wind gusts
with any line segment that can become organized.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the southern
Appalachians today and approach the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this
feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place with surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F. This will contribute to a
pocket of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms
that develop in the higher terrain of the central Appalachians will
move eastward into the Mid-Atlantic during the late afternoon and
early evening. Forecast deep-layer shear appears sufficient to
support a severe threat. The instability and steep low-level lapse
rates will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the
stronger multicells.
...Southeast Arizona...
An axis of instability is forecast to develop today across southeast
Arizona. Near this axis, low-level convergence will become maximized
during the afternoon, which will result in isolated to scattered
convective initiation. Storms that form near the instability axis as
low-level lapse rates peak in the late afternoon could produce
isolated severe wind gusts.
..Broyles/Moore.. 07/09/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move towards and deepen offshore from the
Pacific Northwest, while the upper high will shift eastward over
southern California. Stronger mid-level winds will begin to
overspread the Northwest with the onshore pressure gradient
strengthening again as a Pacific cold front moves into the
Northwest. Mid-level moisture that has been present across the Great
Basin and Four Corners will continue to push east of the Front Range
and suppressed southward to southern Arizona/New Mexico.
Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop across much of the
Great Basin into the Four Corners. West-southwest sustained winds of
12-20 mph amid minimum RH of 8-20% are likely to develop from
central/eastern Oregon to the Four Corners. The strongest winds are
likely across the Sierra Front and northwest Nevada into portions of
southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. While winds will not be as
strong across portions of central/northern Utah into western
Colorado, locally elevated conditions are expected. Locally elevated
conditions may extend into portions of southeast/eastern Idaho as
well.
Isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms are possible across
portions of southeast Idaho, northern Utah, and northwest Colorado.
While building to towering Cu are likely over the higher terrain,
thunderstorm chances are less than 10%, with high-based convective
showers with little to no rainfall reaching the ground more likely.
..Nauslar.. 07/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
Another upper low will move into southwest Canada as the upper high
continues near the southern California coast. West-southwest flow
aloft will spread over much of the West, with the strongest
mid-level flow across central/southern California into northern
Arizona. A weak, Pacific cold front will stall out and weaken
further across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies after
passing through the Inland Northwest.
West-southwest sustained winds of 12-20 mph with gusts of 20-40 mph
amid minimum RH of 5-15% are expected across inland southern
California and stretching across the southern Great Basin into the
Four Corners. The strongest gusts will be along/east the southern
Sierra/vicinity during the late afternoon and evening. Additionally,
elevated conditions are possible on portions of the Snake River
Plain near the weakening Pacific cold front. Given the recent
lightning, active large wildfires, and near to record dry fuels,
holdovers and growth on existing large fires are a concern for
portions of Nevada, Utah, and western Colorado.
Isolated dry thunderstorms are likely from northeast Nevada into
western Colorado. Enough residual mid-level moisture along with a
deep well mixed boundary layer and terrain circulations should
combine to produce isolated to possibly scattered mostly dry
thunderstorms. Deep pyroconvection on active large wildfires
in/around the IsoDryT area remain a concern.
Elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Carolinas and
eastern Georgia as west-southwest sustained winds of 8-15 mph and
minimum RH of 30-40% develop during the afternoon. ERCs are above
the 90th percentile across these areas. However, the potential for
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening and low
confidence in more than locally elevated conditions developing
precludes an Elevated area at this time.
..Nauslar.. 07/09/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 1524 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1524
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Areas affected...North-central Nebraska into northeast South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 062011Z - 062215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms along a cold front will pose a threat of large hail
and severe winds. Convective organization is not expected to be
overly high, but trends will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Convection has developed along a cold front in
central/northeast South Dakota. Strong heating of an upper 60s to
low 70s F dewpoint airmass has mostly eroded MLCIN faster than most
earlier guidance had predicted. The observed 18Z ABR sounding showed
an 8.4 C/km mid-level lapse rate, though some inhibition remains
when modifying with current surface observations. The impacts of
remaining MLCIN are apparent given that storms have not been able to
intensify very quickly. With continued surface heating, however,
strong to severe storms will become more likely along the boundary.
These areas are much farther removed from the upper trough in Canada
and mid-level heights are subtly rising as well. The less than ideal
large-scale lift environment along with 20-25 kt of effective shear
will likely limit overall storm organization and intensity. Large
hail and severe wind gusts will still be possible with the strongest
storms. Should enough clustering occur, a watch may need to be
considered.
..Wendt/Hart.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42890173 44949905 45549801 45459749 44599747 43259917
42660054 42540148 42660175 42890173
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
MD 1525 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AR...NORTHERN LA...AND NORTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Areas affected...Parts of southern/central AR...northern LA...and
northeast TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 062017Z - 062245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The risk of damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will
gradually increase through the afternoon. Convective trends are
being monitored, and a watch could eventually be warranted.
DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent preceding a compact
midlevel low/vort max is aiding in the development of thunderstorms
along a weak surface boundary in northern/central AR, with
additional development within a broad low-level confluence zone
extending from northeast TX into central AR. Within this zone,
strong diurnal heating/destabilization of a moist PBL (lower 70s
dewpoints) beneath relatively steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by
SHV 18Z sounding) is contributing to around 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE.
This increasing buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse
rates will be favorable for damaging downbursts with the stronger
storms that evolve. Given weak deep-layer shear, thunderstorms
should generally remain disorganized/outflow dominant. However, the
aforementioned buoyancy and focused area of deep-layer ascent could
promote several loosely organized clusters capable of scattered
damaging winds and sporadic severe hail with time.
Convective trends (especially a tendency for clustering) are being
monitored, and a watch could eventually be warranted for parts of
the area.
..Weinman/Hart.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 32039275 31969348 32219477 32459527 32809557 33389551
33719532 34149485 34889418 35389339 35439263 35189192
34669152 33819146 33239150 32369217 32039275
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Read more
MD 1523 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Areas affected...Much of northern/central Virginia into
north-central North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 061827Z - 062100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increase in
thunderstorm development this afternoon. The stronger storms will be
capable of producing damaging wind gusts. It is unclear if a watch
will be needed, especially in the near term.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar data shows a gradual increase in
thunderstorm development over the higher terrain of western VA ,
with more isolated development farther east. Over the next few
hours, continued diurnal heating and orographic lift should promote
scattered thunderstorms. As these storms advance eastward into parts
of central VA and north-central NC, steepening low-level lapse rates
and increasing buoyancy will promote damaging wind gusts --
especially with any clusters of storms that evolve. Current thinking
is that the greater risk of damaging winds will develop later this
afternoon into the evening, as storms congeal into small clusters.
Therefore, the need for a watch is uncertain in the near term,
though convective trends are being monitored.
..Weinman/Hart.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 36578011 37117958 37627924 38217893 38617844 38837801
38847750 38567704 38247687 37587689 36607735 35727817
35427881 35437971 35738020 36138031 36578011
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE ARKLATEX...AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts remain possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms
in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor
changes made to the thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the
latest observations and numerical guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 07/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026/
...MN/ND...
Morning water vapory imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over southern Manitoba, with its associated surface cold front
sagging southward across ND. This front will serve as the focus for
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from northern MN
into eastern ND. Strong heating ahead of the front and dewpoints
near 70F will yield MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
These storms may persist through the evening, spreading southward
into central MN and eastern SD.
...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of
the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas region today. Vertical shear and
steering flow is rather weak, suggesting storms will be poorly
organized. However, strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates,
combined with substantial CAPE in forecast soundings, suggest that
the strongest cells will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts over a
relatively broad area again today.
...AR/LA/OK/TX...
Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms again today over much of AR, southeast OK,
northeast TX, and northern LA. This is near a mid-level trough
where lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are more favorable for
robust up/downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Have opted for
a small SLGT risk for parts of this area where convective coverage
appears highest.
...Northern UT into WY...
Scattered high-based fast-moving thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon over northern UT, moving northeastward into western and
northern WY. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.
Read more
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe
hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into
central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A generally zonal pattern will exist on Wednesday, with various
disturbances moving across the northern Plains to Great Lakes. One
disturbance will affect the upper MS Valley to Great Lakes during
the day, with another developing late into the northern High Plains.
Within the entire zone, midlevel westerlies will average 30-35 kt.
In the low levels, a front should stretch from near Lake Superior
into central NE, where it will stall. Widespread mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints will remain ahead of the front, contributing to 2000-3000
J/kg MUCAPE by afternoon.
Early activity is likely moving out of MN and into WI, and may
overturn some of the air mass and push the effective boundary
around. New diurnal storms are then likely during the afternoon,
roughly from WI into southern MN and IA, with wind and hail
potential.
Farther west, scattered strong to severe storms are likely across
the High Plains, where strong heating and steep lapse rates will
favor development beneath modest northwest flow aloft. Moisture and
instability look sufficient, but not overlay strong, and will
support scattered strong to severe gusts and some hail.
..Jewell.. 07/06/2026
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Afternoon Update...
Only slight adjustments were made to the risk areas based on the
latest guidance. Notably, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area
was expanded into southern ID where a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms
will pose a risk for lightning ignitions where pockets of dry fuels
exist. Following dry thunderstorms on Day 1/Monday, dry and windy
conditions on Day 2/Tuesday may encourage possible lightning
holdovers to emerge east of the Cascades (south-central OR) into the
northern Sierra Nevada (northeast CA/northwest NV), and west-central
UT where Elevated highlights were maintained. The rest of the
forecast remains on track, see the previous discussion for more
information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/06/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue to be driven by a combination of
dry thunderstorm potential as well as dry/windy conditions across
portions of the West on Tuesday. A slight eastward shift of the
upper ridge from the Four Corners into the central Rockies is
expected through Tuesday evening. This will establish a more
west/southwest flow regime across the West Coast that will be
favorable for downslope flow off the northern Sierra Nevada and
portions of the Cascades. Additionally, a plume of mid-level
moisture will continue to spread east/northeast from the western
Great Basin towards the Four Corners/central Rockies that will
promote dry thunderstorm potential across a broad area.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Mid-level moisture spreading eastward over the next 24 hours will
impinge on a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates and dry
boundary-layer conditions currently in place across the Four Corners
and central Rockies. This should promote adequate buoyancy for weak
convection by Tuesday afternoon. PWAT values are currently forecast
to range from 0.75 inches from the northern Great Basin to around
0.5 inch across UT and western CO. Forcing for ascent driven by weak
perturbations within the mean southwesterly flow regime over the
northern Great Basin should decrease eastward into the Four Corners
were orographic ascent will yield more isolated thunderstorms. This
will likely result in a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the
northern Great Basin with increasingly dry thunderstorms with
east/southeastward extent. Portions of central OR were removed from
the risk area owing to the potential for wetting rainfall over the
next 24 hours. However, portions of the area may be at risk for dry
lightning if rainfall amounts are more limited than currently
anticipated.
...Cascades into the northern Sierra Nevada...
The establishment of a southwest flow regime across the Cascades and
northern Sierra Nevada will promote strengthening downslope flow
along the eastern slopes. Latest forecast guidance suggests that the
driest and windiest conditions will emerge across northeast
CA/northwest NV where sustained winds between 15-20 mph will likely
coincide with 10-15% RH minimums. Further north, cooler conditions
will result in more sparse coverage of elevated conditions, but
favored gaps will likely see 15-20 mph winds with RH values falling
into the 15-25% range by late afternoon.
...Eastern Nevada into western Utah...
Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected for Tuesday as
weak troughing across the northern Great Basin drives an uptick in
southwesterly flow across the region. Confidence in 10-15% RH
minimums is fairly high given downslope trajectories off the
southern Sierra Nevada over the preceding 24 hours, and latest
HREF/REFS guidance suggests wind speeds will likely reach 15 mph for
many locations, resulting in a few hours of sustained elevated
conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
MD 1522 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...northwest
Minnesota...northeast South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 061811Z - 062015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds are possible with initial
supercells that will eventually grow upscale into a more organized
cluster/MCS. A watch is likely this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A slow moving cold front continues southeastward within
the northern Plains. Though influence from the shortwave trough in
Canada is minimal, areas of strong heating of and upper 60s to low
70s F dewpoint airmass is allowing cumulus to deepen along parts of
the boundary. Additionally, mid-level convection will move eastward
through the Dakotas and may gradually root near the surface. The
strongest initial development will likely occur along the Canadian
border in northwest Minnesota given the greater surface heating and
nominally greater mid-level ascent. Effective shear of 35-40 kt will
support a mixture of supercells and multicells. With time, linear
forcing along the cold front and cold pool mergers will lead to a
broader linear structure. Initial supercells would be capable of
large hail up to 2 inches. As activity congeals, severe wind
gusts/wind damage would become more likely. The environment into the
Mississippi Valley becomes less favorable. Movement of storms toward
the south/southeast into the greater buoyancy is expected with time.
..Wendt/Hart.. 07/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45739785 46109810 48279763 49079707 49179637 48959581
46519627 45859646 45659673 45739785
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Read more
WW 466 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 061840Z - 070200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
140 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Minnesota
Eastern North Dakota
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along and
ahead of a cold front, and build eastward through the watch area.
Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with this activity.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Fargo
ND to 35 miles south southeast of International Falls MN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds are most likely over parts of
the Dakotas into Minnesota from Tuesday afternoon into the
overnight, with other isolated storms producing hail or wind over
the northern High Plain. Daytime storms may produce isolated wind
damage over northeast Texas and over Virginia and North Carolina.
...Dakotas into Minnesota...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move eastward across the
northern Plains Tuesday, with increasing mid and high level winds
aloft enhancing shear. Low pressure will develop over western SD and
NE, with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward across SD into
central MN. Southerly winds will aid boundary layer mixing with
strong heating from the central High Plains into central SD, while
upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints persist near the stationary front
with easterly surface winds.
Areas of thunderstorms may occur early in the day from MT into ND
where elevated instability will exist. Some of this activity may
transition to surface based by afternoon, with a probable MCS
developing into northern SD and moving into western MN overnight.
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 along with a nocturnal low-level jet will
support corridors of wind damage. Other storms are likely during the
late afternoon near the low and extending southwestward within the
surface trough. Some of these cells may produce large hail along
with locally damaging gusts.
...Northeast Texas into western Louisiana...
A weak midlevel trough will remain from the lower to mid MS Valley
into eastern TX, with cooler temperatures aloft. Daytime heating and
70s F dewpoints may yield strong instability across the northeast TX
area, where clusters of storms appear likely after 20Z. Modest lapse
rates aloft and weak shear will favor robust but short duration
storms with locally damaging downbursts.
..Virginia and North Carolina...
Strong heating and weak westerlies aloft will induce a surface
trough across central VA into the Carolinas, with MUCAPE over 1500
J/kg likely developing. Storms may develop within this trough by
peak heating, and also over the higher terrain during the afternoon.
Locally damaging gusts may occur, especially with any congealing
clusters.
..Jewell.. 07/06/2026
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds are most likely over parts of
the Dakotas into Minnesota from Tuesday afternoon into the
overnight, with other isolated storms producing hail or wind over
the northern High Plain. Daytime storms may produce isolated wind
damage over northeast Texas and over Virginia and North Carolina.
...Dakotas into Minnesota...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move eastward across the
northern Plains Tuesday, with increasing mid and high level winds
aloft enhancing shear. Low pressure will develop over western SD and
NE, with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward across SD into
central MN. Southerly winds will aid boundary layer mixing with
strong heating from the central High Plains into central SD, while
upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints persist near the stationary front
with easterly surface winds.
Areas of thunderstorms may occur early in the day from MT into ND
where elevated instability will exist. Some of this activity may
transition to surface based by afternoon, with a probable MCS
developing into northern SD and moving into western MN overnight.
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 along with a nocturnal low-level jet will
support corridors of wind damage. Other storms are likely during the
late afternoon near the low and extending southwestward within the
surface trough. Some of these cells may produce large hail along
with locally damaging gusts.
...Northeast Texas into western Louisiana...
A weak midlevel trough will remain from the lower to mid MS Valley
into eastern TX, with cooler temperatures aloft. Daytime heating and
70s F dewpoints may yield strong instability across the northeast TX
area, where clusters of storms appear likely after 20Z. Modest lapse
rates aloft and weak shear will favor robust but short duration
storms with locally damaging downbursts.
..Virginia and North Carolina...
Strong heating and weak westerlies aloft will induce a surface
trough across central VA into the Carolinas, with MUCAPE over 1500
J/kg likely developing. Storms may develop within this trough by
peak heating, and also over the higher terrain during the afternoon.
Locally damaging gusts may occur, especially with any congealing
clusters.
..Jewell.. 07/06/2026
Read more
