Storm Prediction Center

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO PORTIONS OF IDAHO AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to progress east-northeastward from British Columbia into the interior Canadian provinces today as an upper-level ridge moves from the Great Basin into the High Plains. Residual flow across the Pacific Northwest from the ejecting trough and a deepening surface low across eastern Montana will be responsible for Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West to the northern High Plains. ...Southern Montana into portions of Idaho and northern Wyoming... As a surface low deepens over eastern Montana this afternoon into the evening, the intensifying surface pressure gradient will result in sustained winds of 20-25 MPH across much of the area. Relative humidity of 10-15% is expected across portions of Idaho into southwestern Montana, and could get as low as 5-10% in south-central Montana into northern Wyoming. With ERCs largely in the 80th-95th annual percentiles across the region, Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast. As the surface low moves eastward and a cold front moves through the area, winds will shift from largely southerly to west-northwesterly but should still be gusting 20-25 MPH. ...Northern High Plains... Strong southeasterly surface flow ahead of the deepening cyclone should result in sustained 15-20 MPH winds across the far western Dakotas into portions of Wyoming and Montana. Relative humidity is forecast to be in the range of 5-15%, getting more moist with eastward extent. While ERCs are largely in the 90th-95th annual percentile range, this guidance does not account for live fuels and the current state of green vegetation. Given the uncertainty in the quality of fuels with this eastward extent, Elevated fire-weather highlights have been maintained -- though periods of Critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ...Southern Oregon into portions of northern Nevada and California... Lingering dry and breezy conditions in the wake of the ejecting mid-level jet streak will persist this afternoon across portions of northeastern California/northwestern Nevada into southern Oregon. Winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity around 15-20% will overlap with modestly receptive fuels, resulting in Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern and Central California... Isolated to scattered high-based showers appear possible across portions of California. Occasional lightning is possible, but limited buoyancy puts the likelihood at less than 10% coverage. Portions of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts may see a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity, but uncertainty in the coverage and rainfall amounts precludes highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO PORTIONS OF IDAHO AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough and associated jet streak is forecast to progress east-northeastward from British Columbia into the interior Canadian provinces today as an upper-level ridge moves from the Great Basin into the High Plains. Residual flow across the Pacific Northwest from the ejecting trough and a deepening surface low across eastern Montana will be responsible for Elevated to Critical fire-weather concerns across the Intermountain West to the northern High Plains. ...Southern Montana into portions of Idaho and northern Wyoming... As a surface low deepens over eastern Montana this afternoon into the evening, the intensifying surface pressure gradient will result in sustained winds of 20-25 MPH across much of the area. Relative humidity of 10-15% is expected across portions of Idaho into southwestern Montana, and could get as low as 5-10% in south-central Montana into northern Wyoming. With ERCs largely in the 80th-95th annual percentiles across the region, Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast. As the surface low moves eastward and a cold front moves through the area, winds will shift from largely southerly to west-northwesterly but should still be gusting 20-25 MPH. ...Northern High Plains... Strong southeasterly surface flow ahead of the deepening cyclone should result in sustained 15-20 MPH winds across the far western Dakotas into portions of Wyoming and Montana. Relative humidity is forecast to be in the range of 5-15%, getting more moist with eastward extent. While ERCs are largely in the 90th-95th annual percentile range, this guidance does not account for live fuels and the current state of green vegetation. Given the uncertainty in the quality of fuels with this eastward extent, Elevated fire-weather highlights have been maintained -- though periods of Critical meteorological conditions will be possible. ...Southern Oregon into portions of northern Nevada and California... Lingering dry and breezy conditions in the wake of the ejecting mid-level jet streak will persist this afternoon across portions of northeastern California/northwestern Nevada into southern Oregon. Winds of 15-20 MPH and relative humidity around 15-20% will overlap with modestly receptive fuels, resulting in Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern and Central California... Isolated to scattered high-based showers appear possible across portions of California. Occasional lightning is possible, but limited buoyancy puts the likelihood at less than 10% coverage. Portions of the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts may see a mix of wet and dry thunderstorm activity, but uncertainty in the coverage and rainfall amounts precludes highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. ... Synopsis ... A large mid-level ridge, centered over the upper-Mississippi Valley, will encompass much of the US on Monday. To the south of the ridge center, broad northeast-to-easterly mid-level flow will prevail. A weak mid-level trough over the Tennessee Valley will continue to slowly weaken as the mid-level ridge expands eastward to its north. On the southwest side of the ridge, easterly-to-southeasterly mid-level flow will persist across the Southwest. At the surface, a high-pressure area will be centered over the Corn Belt, with a weak low-pressure area continuing to meander over the Southeast along a stalled boundary across Georgia into South Carolina. ... North Florida into South Carolina ... To the south of the previously mentioned stalled boundary, surface dewpoints should be in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon with peak heating. Guidance is trending cooler with afternoon temperatures as compared to previous days (mid-80Fs versus mid-90Fs), which should preclude widespread low-level lapse rates typically needed for strong, damaging thunderstorm outflows. However, given the presence of a weak surface low and a stalled outflow boundary that may focus thunderstorm development, the 5% wind probabilities have been maintained, although the resulting coverage of wind reports should be less than in preceding days. ... Arizona ... A conditional severe threat exists across southern Arizona on Monday. The background environment of seasonably moist low levels and modest easterly mid-level flow would seem to support some potential for one or more westward moving thunderstorm clusters. These clusters would be capable of strong thunderstorm outflow winds given very steep low-level lapse rates. However, significant convection is expected across the region on Sunday, which may scour out the better low-level moisture or leave behind sufficient convective cloud cover that modulates diurnal heating. Given this uncertainty, and the marginal nature of the assessed severe threat at this time, will hold off on adding unconditional severe wind probabilities. ... Western Montana ... Thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the higher terrain of western Montana, particularly southwestern areas. Modest surface dewpoints and expected cloud cover should limit buoyancy and overall updraft intensity. However, should a stronger storm develop, strong mid-level flow would support thunderstorms capable of strong, gusty outflows. ..Marsh.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. ... Synopsis ... A large mid-level ridge, centered over the upper-Mississippi Valley, will encompass much of the US on Monday. To the south of the ridge center, broad northeast-to-easterly mid-level flow will prevail. A weak mid-level trough over the Tennessee Valley will continue to slowly weaken as the mid-level ridge expands eastward to its north. On the southwest side of the ridge, easterly-to-southeasterly mid-level flow will persist across the Southwest. At the surface, a high-pressure area will be centered over the Corn Belt, with a weak low-pressure area continuing to meander over the Southeast along a stalled boundary across Georgia into South Carolina. ... North Florida into South Carolina ... To the south of the previously mentioned stalled boundary, surface dewpoints should be in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon with peak heating. Guidance is trending cooler with afternoon temperatures as compared to previous days (mid-80Fs versus mid-90Fs), which should preclude widespread low-level lapse rates typically needed for strong, damaging thunderstorm outflows. However, given the presence of a weak surface low and a stalled outflow boundary that may focus thunderstorm development, the 5% wind probabilities have been maintained, although the resulting coverage of wind reports should be less than in preceding days. ... Arizona ... A conditional severe threat exists across southern Arizona on Monday. The background environment of seasonably moist low levels and modest easterly mid-level flow would seem to support some potential for one or more westward moving thunderstorm clusters. These clusters would be capable of strong thunderstorm outflow winds given very steep low-level lapse rates. However, significant convection is expected across the region on Sunday, which may scour out the better low-level moisture or leave behind sufficient convective cloud cover that modulates diurnal heating. Given this uncertainty, and the marginal nature of the assessed severe threat at this time, will hold off on adding unconditional severe wind probabilities. ... Western Montana ... Thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the higher terrain of western Montana, particularly southwestern areas. Modest surface dewpoints and expected cloud cover should limit buoyancy and overall updraft intensity. However, should a stronger storm develop, strong mid-level flow would support thunderstorms capable of strong, gusty outflows. ..Marsh.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong-to-severe storms will be possible from South Carolina into central Georgia and far North Florida on Monday. ... Synopsis ... A large mid-level ridge, centered over the upper-Mississippi Valley, will encompass much of the US on Monday. To the south of the ridge center, broad northeast-to-easterly mid-level flow will prevail. A weak mid-level trough over the Tennessee Valley will continue to slowly weaken as the mid-level ridge expands eastward to its north. On the southwest side of the ridge, easterly-to-southeasterly mid-level flow will persist across the Southwest. At the surface, a high-pressure area will be centered over the Corn Belt, with a weak low-pressure area continuing to meander over the Southeast along a stalled boundary across Georgia into South Carolina. ... North Florida into South Carolina ... To the south of the previously mentioned stalled boundary, surface dewpoints should be in the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon with peak heating. Guidance is trending cooler with afternoon temperatures as compared to previous days (mid-80Fs versus mid-90Fs), which should preclude widespread low-level lapse rates typically needed for strong, damaging thunderstorm outflows. However, given the presence of a weak surface low and a stalled outflow boundary that may focus thunderstorm development, the 5% wind probabilities have been maintained, although the resulting coverage of wind reports should be less than in preceding days. ... Arizona ... A conditional severe threat exists across southern Arizona on Monday. The background environment of seasonably moist low levels and modest easterly mid-level flow would seem to support some potential for one or more westward moving thunderstorm clusters. These clusters would be capable of strong thunderstorm outflow winds given very steep low-level lapse rates. However, significant convection is expected across the region on Sunday, which may scour out the better low-level moisture or leave behind sufficient convective cloud cover that modulates diurnal heating. Given this uncertainty, and the marginal nature of the assessed severe threat at this time, will hold off on adding unconditional severe wind probabilities. ... Western Montana ... Thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the higher terrain of western Montana, particularly southwestern areas. Modest surface dewpoints and expected cloud cover should limit buoyancy and overall updraft intensity. However, should a stronger storm develop, strong mid-level flow would support thunderstorms capable of strong, gusty outflows. ..Marsh.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today over parts of the Carolinas, eastern Georgia, and southern Arizona. Isolated hail and a few severe gusts may occur in the western Great Lakes. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from parts of the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Carolinas/Georgia... A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Southeast into the Carolinas, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over most of the region by midday. A cold front will advance southward across southern North Carolina, reaching northern South Carolina in the afternoon. Low-level convergence will become maximized along and ahead of the front, which will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. These storms will move eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Additional storms will form in the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings near and to the south of the front late this afternoon have MLCAPE maximizing in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and 0-6 km shear around 20 knots. This environment will be favorable for multicell line segments capable of severe wind gusts. ...Southern Arizona... A sufficiently moist airmass will be in place today over southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. By afternoon, an axis of maximized low-level convergence and instability will develop in southeast Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms will form near this axis and move westward across southern Arizona from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads and very steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A cold front located from southern Oklahoma eastward into north-central Mississippi will advance slowly southward across the region today. Ahead of the boundary, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the mid 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization over much of the warm sector. Scattered thunderstorm will form along and to the south of the front during the afternoon. The instability along with steep low-level lapse rates will be sufficient for isolated strong to severe gusts with any line segment that can become organized. ...Western Great Lakes... Mid-level northerly flow will be in place today over the western Great Lakes. At the surface, a southwest-to-northeast corridor of low-level moisture will be located from eastern Minnesota into western Upper Michigan. Moderate to strong instability will develop near the moist axis by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain limited, isolated convection could initiate near the moist axis if low-level convergence becomes strong enough. In that case, a cell or two could form and move southward into the stronger instability late this afternoon. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts possible. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today over parts of the Carolinas, eastern Georgia, and southern Arizona. Isolated hail and a few severe gusts may occur in the western Great Lakes. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from parts of the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Carolinas/Georgia... A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Southeast into the Carolinas, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over most of the region by midday. A cold front will advance southward across southern North Carolina, reaching northern South Carolina in the afternoon. Low-level convergence will become maximized along and ahead of the front, which will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. These storms will move eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Additional storms will form in the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings near and to the south of the front late this afternoon have MLCAPE maximizing in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and 0-6 km shear around 20 knots. This environment will be favorable for multicell line segments capable of severe wind gusts. ...Southern Arizona... A sufficiently moist airmass will be in place today over southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. By afternoon, an axis of maximized low-level convergence and instability will develop in southeast Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms will form near this axis and move westward across southern Arizona from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads and very steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A cold front located from southern Oklahoma eastward into north-central Mississippi will advance slowly southward across the region today. Ahead of the boundary, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the mid 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization over much of the warm sector. Scattered thunderstorm will form along and to the south of the front during the afternoon. The instability along with steep low-level lapse rates will be sufficient for isolated strong to severe gusts with any line segment that can become organized. ...Western Great Lakes... Mid-level northerly flow will be in place today over the western Great Lakes. At the surface, a southwest-to-northeast corridor of low-level moisture will be located from eastern Minnesota into western Upper Michigan. Moderate to strong instability will develop near the moist axis by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain limited, isolated convection could initiate near the moist axis if low-level convergence becomes strong enough. In that case, a cell or two could form and move southward into the stronger instability late this afternoon. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts possible. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/12/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today over parts of the Carolinas, eastern Georgia, and southern Arizona. Isolated hail and a few severe gusts may occur in the western Great Lakes. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from parts of the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Carolinas/Georgia... A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Southeast into the Carolinas, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over most of the region by midday. A cold front will advance southward across southern North Carolina, reaching northern South Carolina in the afternoon. Low-level convergence will become maximized along and ahead of the front, which will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. These storms will move eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Additional storms will form in the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings near and to the south of the front late this afternoon have MLCAPE maximizing in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and 0-6 km shear around 20 knots. This environment will be favorable for multicell line segments capable of severe wind gusts. ...Southern Arizona... A sufficiently moist airmass will be in place today over southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. By afternoon, an axis of maximized low-level convergence and instability will develop in southeast Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms will form near this axis and move westward across southern Arizona from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads and very steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A cold front located from southern Oklahoma eastward into north-central Mississippi will advance slowly southward across the region today. Ahead of the boundary, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the mid 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization over much of the warm sector. Scattered thunderstorm will form along and to the south of the front during the afternoon. The instability along with steep low-level lapse rates will be sufficient for isolated strong to severe gusts with any line segment that can become organized. ...Western Great Lakes... Mid-level northerly flow will be in place today over the western Great Lakes. At the surface, a southwest-to-northeast corridor of low-level moisture will be located from eastern Minnesota into western Upper Michigan. Moderate to strong instability will develop near the moist axis by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain limited, isolated convection could initiate near the moist axis if low-level convergence becomes strong enough. In that case, a cell or two could form and move southward into the stronger instability late this afternoon. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts possible. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/12/2026 Read more

MD 1597 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484... FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1597 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0941 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Areas affected...southern Arizona Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484... Valid 120241Z - 120445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe wind gusts will continue for the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Earlier intense thunderstorms that moved through the Tucson area have since weakened, per MRMS reflectivity trends. That observation is consistent with latest objective analysis, which suggests that convective inhibition is increasing across the discussion area. Nonetheless, the existence of an active cold pool and some radar indication of forward-propagational characteristics with the ongoing storms over central Pima County suggest a continued risk for isolated severe wind gusts for the next 1-2 hours as storms move into the western part of the county. ..Mead.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... LAT...LON 33041207 32971085 32520991 32000928 31400944 31411103 31701199 32021317 32451328 32581234 33041207 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PHX TO 45 W SAD TO 30 SSW FHU. ..MEAD..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC019-023-120440- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PIMA SANTA CRUZ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 484 SEVERE TSTM AZ 112145Z - 120500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 484 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast and south central Arizona * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms forming on the higher terrain in southeast Arizona will spread west-southwestward into the lower deserts through late evening, with the potential for merging storm clusters. Severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph will be the main threat, though the strongest storms may also produce isolated large hail near 1 inch diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northwest of Safford AZ to 25 miles south southwest of Sierra Vista AZ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...WW 482...WW 483... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 6020. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1596 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483... FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1596 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0858 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483... Valid 120158Z - 120330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for locally strong to severe wind gusts is expected to linger for the next 1-2 hours. Given the increasingly isolated nature of that threat, the watch will likely be allowed to expire at 10 PM CDT (03Z). DISCUSSION...Some brief cold pool organization has occurred from Mayes and Wagoner Counties into Adair County in northeast OK over the past hour or so with observed gusts of 66 and 63 mph. Since that time, the gust front has outpaced the parent updrafts, which should lead to a general weakening trend through the remainder of the evening. The exception will be with any new storm development occurring along colliding outflow boundaries, which may pose a risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts for the next 1-2 hours. The current expectation is that the remaining valid portions of the watch area will likely be allowed to expire at 10 PM CDT (03Z). ..Mead.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36849732 36909619 36749549 36339516 35949537 35349599 35339655 35959694 36849732 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW MLC TO 10 WNW PNC. WW 483 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 120300Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596 ..MEAD..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC037-097-105-111-113-117-131-143-145-147-120300- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CREEK MAYES NOWATA OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE ROGERS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1595 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484... FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1595 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Areas affected...Southern Arizona Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484... Valid 120022Z - 120215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484 continues. SUMMARY...Through 02Z, the greatest threat for severe wind gusts is expected to exist across southern Pinal into eastern and central parts of Pima County, including the Tucson metropolitan area. DISCUSSION...Recent trends in radar data show intensifying storms from southeast through northeast of Tucson within a deeply mixed boundary layer, characterized by steep low/mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg, per latest objective analysis. Current surface observations immediately downstream from the storms in the Tucson vicinity indicate west winds, which are 1) enhancing low-level storm-relative inflow, and 2) bolstering deep-layer shear. Given the areal increase and recent intensification of storms, the likelihood for organized cold pool formation appears to be increasing along with the potential for corridors of severe winds with gusts of 70-80 mph. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are also possible. ..Mead.. 07/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... LAT...LON 31931279 32211306 32451268 33011193 33281120 33351060 33320979 32660922 31880917 31420949 31321053 31461143 31841241 31991304 31931279 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N SAD TO 15 NE SAD TO 50 SE SAD. ..MEAD..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC003-009-019-021-023-120240- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COCHISE GRAHAM PIMA PINAL SANTA CRUZ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE AVK TO 20 WSW END TO 40 SSW END TO 30 WNW CQB TO 15 W PNC TO 15 W PNC. ..MEAD..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-037-039-051-071-081-087-097-103-105-107-109- 111-113-117-119-125-131-133-143-145-147-149-120240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CREEK CUSTER GRADY KAY LINCOLN MCCLAIN MAYES NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 483 SEVERE TSTM OK 112015Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 483 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon into the early evening. Scattered severe gusts 60 to 75 mph are possible with the stronger microbursts and outflow winds. Isolated large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter is also possible through the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Chickasha OK to 40 miles east northeast of Tulsa OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...WW 482... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 32010. ...Smith Read more

MD 1594 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Areas affected...parts of Northern and Central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483... Valid 112342Z - 120145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe wind gusts is expected to persist this evening. However, the potential for organized cold pool development remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...Mainly pulse-type storm modes have been observed over the past 1-2 hours with recurring initiation focused along colliding storm-scale outflows and the western extension of a synoptic front analyzed across northern OK. Latest objective analysis indicates that the strongest instability (MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg) is located over northeast OK in the vicinity of the stalled front, where dewpoints are in the mid 70s. Both boundary-layer moisture content and resultant instability decrease with westward extent; however, low-level lapse rates become steeper. Regional VWPs indicate deep-layer shear of generally less than 30 kt across the area, which should tend to limit the potential for organized storm modes. As such, the currently observed pulse storms are expected to continue this evening with an associated risk for locally severe wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail. The potential for an organized cold pool capable of more concentrated severe wind gusts will be contingent on the favorable clustering of storms, which has yet to become apparent. ..Mead.. 07/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35249929 35599927 36059849 36769800 36869661 36779580 36409532 35979540 35479600 35139680 34849795 35249929 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595 ..MEAD..07/12/26 ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC003-009-011-019-021-023-120140- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COCHISE GRAHAM GREENLEE PIMA PINAL SANTA CRUZ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...AND IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from parts of Oklahoma east-southeastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Storms with severe gusts with some above 70 mph, will also be possible in southern Arizona. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Northern Gulf Coast States... A very moist airmass is in place from northern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast States, where surface dewpoints range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s F. Along this west-northwest-to-east-southeast corridor, the RAP shows an axis of moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg and 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. Near the instability axis, the WSR-88D VWPs at Oklahoma City, Fort Smith and Little Rock have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This suggests potential for severe wind gusts with the more organized multicell line segments. The threat may persist for a few more hours...see MCD 1594. ...Southern Arizona... A sufficiently moist airmass is currently present across southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s F. An axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP over southeast Arizona where MLCAPE is estimated the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms have developed near the instability axis, and these storms will move westward across southern Arizona this evening. Ahead of the storms, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceed 50 degrees in some locations. The very steep lapse rates will contribute to a threat for severe wind gusts. A few gusts of 70 to 80 mph will be possible...see MCD 1595. ..Broyles.. 07/12/2026 Read more